2021 Dublin Bay South by-election

2021 Dublin Bay South by-election

8 July 2021

A map displaying the approximate borders of the Dublin Bay South constituency

Incumbent TD Eoghan Murphy Fine Gael

A by-election is being held in the Dáil Éireann constituency of Dublin Bay South in Ireland on Thursday, 8 July 2021. One Teachta Dála (TD) will be elected, to fill the vacancy left by the resignation of Eoghan Murphy.

Fifteen candidates have been nominated, ten from political parties and five independents. Every Irish and British citizen who is registered to vote in the Dublin Bay South constituency may vote at the by-election. The electorate is 72,302.

Background

Eoghan Murphy was elected as a TD for Dublin South-East in the 2011 general election, a constituency covering most of what became the Dublin Bay South constituency in 2016. Murphy retained his seat at both the 2016 and 2020 general elections. Murphy served as Minister of State at the Department of Finance from 2016 to 2017.

A close ally of Fine Gael leader Leo Varadkar, he was a key figure in Varadkar's successful leadership campaign in 2017. When Varadkar became Taoiseach in June 2017, Murphy was appointed to the cabinet as the Minister for Housing, Planning and Local Government. After the February 2020 Irish general election, prolonged negotiations led to the formation in June 2020 of a three-party coalition government, to which Murphy was not appointed.

On 27 April 2021 Murphy resigned his seat to pursue a career in international affairs. The Electoral (Amendment) Act 2011 stipulates that a by-election in Ireland must be held within six months of a vacancy occurring. The writ was moved in the Dáil on 16 June 2021, and on the same day the polling order for the by-election was signed by Murphy's successor as Housing Minister, Darragh O'Brien. The order set the polling date as 8 July 2021.

Constituency profile

Dublin Bay South has been characterised as a "Fine Gael Heartland" by some of the Irish national media, noting the area (as Dublin South-East) had been the seat of Fine Gael leaders John A. Costello and Garret FitzGerald and their historical performance in the area. However, it had also been the seat of party leaders Ruairi Quinn of the Labour Party, Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats, John Gormley of the Green Party and is the present seat of Eamon Ryan, current leader of the Green Party.

Dublin Bay South has been called "one of the most liberal constituencies in the country" as well as "one of the wealthiest". It had the highest vote in the 2018 referendum to repeal the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution, which prohibited abortion, and its main predecessor constituency Dublin South-East had the highest vote in favour of marriage equality in the 2015 referendum with 74.0% voting 'Yes'.

At 2020 general election, Dublin Bay South was one of the twelve constituencies (of a total of 39) which elected no women. Nine of the by-election candidates are women.

Half of adults in the constituency have been described as professionals, 57% of individuals have third-level qualifications, and 44% live in privately rented apartments.

Procedure

See also: Elections in the Republic of Ireland

Every Irish and British citizen on the register of electors in the Dublin Bay South constituency may vote, with the electorate being 72,302. The election is held using single transferable vote, with the candidate elected when they either have the highest number of the votes after all other candidates have been eliminated, or upon reaching the quota of over half the total valid votes.

The by-election is being held in accordance with COVID-19 public health advice, with extended polling hours of 07:00 UTC and 22:30 UTC on Thursday 8 July; measures in place include having hand sanitisers at all polling stations, voters being asked to wear a mask and observe social distancing when in the polling station, and a perspex screen being set up at each presiding officers' desk. Voters are also being asked to bring their own pen or pencil to mark the ballot paper, with pencils which do not need to be returned also available if required by a voter.

Counting is scheduled to begin from the RDS the following morning, Friday 9 July, with a livestream available.

Candidates

On 7 May, Kate O'Connell declared she would not seek to be the Fine Gael candidate for the election. O'Connell had previously been a TD for the constituency between 2016 and 2020, but did not retain her seat in the 2020 general election, placing fifth in the four-seater. O'Connell suggested she would not be able to win a party selection again due to her relationship with the Fine Gael leadership souring in the meantime. Dublin City Councillor James Geoghegan was the only Fine Gael candidate to be nominated by party members as of the party deadline on 10 May, and was formally selected on 13 May.

The then incumbent Lord Mayor of Dublin Hazel Chu and Dublin City Councillor Claire Byrne contested the Green Party nomination; Claire Byrne was selected as the party candidate on 4 June.

Fianna Fáil councillors Deirdre Conroy and Claire O'Connor were reported as potential candidates for the party nomination, with O'Connor declining to run, leaving Conroy as the sole candidate as of the party deadline on 20 May; she was formally selected on 25 May. Conroy was first elected as a councillor in the 2019 Dublin City Council election.

Senator Ivana Bacik was selected as the Labour Party candidate on 17 May, and Senator Lynn Boylan was selected as the Sinn Féin candidate on 4 June.

Sarah Durcan, who stood for the Social Democrats in Dublin Bay South in the 2020 Irish general election, was the only nominee as of the party deadline and was named as the Social Democrats candidate on 2 June.

Mairéad Tóibín, a pharmacist, has been selected as Aontú's candidate. She is a sister of Peadar Tóibín, the party's founder and its only TD.

Mannix Flynn is standing as an independent candidate. On 27 May, Peter Dooley, the co-founder of the Dublin Renters' Union announced he would be running as an independent candidate. Justin Barrett is standing on behalf of the National Party. On 11 June, Jacqui Gilbourne of Renua announced she would be running for the party. At an anti-lockdown rally on 19 June, Dolores Cahill announced that she would be running as an independent candidate.

Nominations for the by-election closed at noon on 24 June 2021. 15 candidates are standing in the by-election, with ten from registered political parties, and five independents.

Confirmed candidates

2021 Dublin Bay South by-election

Party		Candidate	FPv%	Count
				1
	Labour	Ivana Bacik
	National Party	Justin Barrett
	Sinn Féin	Lynn Boylan
	Green	Claire Byrne
	Independent politicians in Ireland	Dolores Cahill
	Fianna Fáil	Deirdre Conroy
	Independent politicians in Ireland	Peter Dooley
	Social Democrats	Sarah Durcan
	Independent politicians in Ireland	Mannix Flynn
	Fine Gael	James Geoghegan
	Renua	Jacqui Gilbourne
	Independent politicians in Ireland	John Keigher
	Independent politicians in Ireland	Colm O'Keeffe
	People Before Profit/Solidarity	Brigid Purcell
	Aontú	Mairéad Tóibín

Campaign

Aontú

Mairéad Tóibín has campaigned on the platform of the housing crisis. At her campaign launch on 25 June, she called for an end to the tax advantages international property investors receive, stating it is pricing families out of the market. She has called "for a full investigation into the manner in which the government mismanaged" the spread of COVID-19 among residents of nursing homes in 2020, and criticised the Irish government and opposition for "going far beyond any other EU country" to attempt to achieve Zero Covid.

Fianna Fáil

Deirdre Conroy is an architectural heritage consultant who has campaigned to reduce pollution within the area, saying "I want to see people of all ages swimming in the bay and that means stopping pollution and getting rid of the untreated sewage". Conroy has also campaigned on housing, crime, and transport, asking for "more Gardaí on the streets", providing additional funding for community policing and community groups, extending the MetroLink proposed in Dublin city, making sure "rents are affordable" and "reducing the numbers on our social housing waiting lists".

Jim O'Callaghan has been selected as the Director of Elections for Deirdre Conroy's campaign.

In June 2021, Conroy's 2013 blog Diary of a Dublin Landlady was criticised, with posts referring to a Latvian tenant who was lodging in her home, in which Conroy criticised the smell of the tenant's cooking and him sending his child benefit payment back to Latvia, as well as stating she would not permit tenants to turn the heating on at night or have overnight guests. In another post, she considered renting a linen cupboard as housing to students, saying "the linen cupboard which is a perfectly nice single room, I could possibly put a student into". In response to the controversy, Conroy said "I had one bad experience with a tenant who happened to be from Latvia", and described herself as a "very inclusive person". Separately, Conroy is taking legal action over a fall during a skiing trip to Andorra in 2015.

Fine Gael

James Geoghegan has described himself as "liberal and progressive" and has described housing among his three main campaign priorities, stating "I want to speak for a generation stuck in a rent trap or living in their parents’ homes"; he has said he "is not a fan of co-living", a contrast to the Fine Gael incumbent Eoghan Murphy. When asked by journalists on his own circumstances, Geoghegan added that he had a mortgage on his home with his wife, and declined to comment on whether he had drawn on "the bank of mum and dad" for it, saying "we were lucky enough to put a deposit together" for the home. He has stated his two other main campaign priorities are to "make Dublin a 15-minute city", and to invest in "childcare, education, and our work environment".

Geoghegan was criticised for being a founding member of Renua, formed by Lucinda Creighton after she had been expelled from the Fine Gael parliamentary party when she voted against the Protection of Life During Pregnancy Bill 2013, which had permitted abortion under certain limited circumstances; Geoghegan has said he disagrees with Creighton's "social views on abortion", "I certainly don't share any of the social views that I suppose that party subsequently became associated with", that he voted in favour of the repeal of the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution permitting the Oireachtas to legislate for abortion, and in favour of the Thirty-fourth Amendment of the Constitution which legalized same-sex marriage.

Following an article in The Irish Times by columnist Una Mullally criticising what the author claimed was Geoghegan's privileged family background, Fine Gael requested that people focus on Geoghegan's politics; the Irish Daily Mail subsequently complained that Geoghegan was refusing to answer questions on political issues, especially Fine Gael housing policy. Similarly, two podcasts covering Irish politics, The Echo Chamber Podcast and Una & Andrea's United Ireland podcast, complained that they had reached out to Geoghegan for interviews but he had refused all offers. Both podcasts had featured several other election candidates over the course of the campaign.

Simon Harris was appointed as the Director of Elections for Geoghegan's campaign. Geoghegan asked voters to give their further preferences to the candidates of the other government parties, Claire Byrne and Deirdre Conroy. The concept of a "voting pact" between the government parties was floated by Fine Gael towards the end of the campaign, but was rejected by both Fianna Fáil and the Green party.

On Wednesday 7 July 2021, the day before voting, Kate O'Connell announced she would be contacting the Garda Siochana after a fake message which she had not endorsed began circulating on Whatsapp. The message, coming from a user posing under the guise of an official O'Connell group, asked O'Connell's supporters to give their votes to Ivana Bacik, Claire Byrne, Deidre Conroy, Sarah Durcan and Lynn Boylan rather than Fine Gael's candidate James Geoghegan, playing off the perceived rivalry between O’Connell and Geoghegan reported upon during Fine Gael's candidate selection. O'Connell referred to the message as a "hoax".

Green Party

Byrne has campaigned on providing more housing with improved standards, improving waste and recycling provisions, providing "multipurpose venues" to create and revitalise a "sustainable night-time economy", as well as on being a female representative in a constituency without any female Teachtaí Dála, saying "I really believe only women can represent women effectively".

On 26 May Roderic O'Gorman was announced as the Director of Elections for the Green Party campaign. With the Green Party in a three-way coalition for government alongside Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael as of the 2020 Irish general election, O'Gorman said "This election will send a strong signal on what government priorities must be over the coming years. In Government, the Green Party is delivering climate action, social justice, and more liveable towns and cities." Byrne asked voters to give their second preference to Labour Party candidate Ivana Bacik.

Labour Party

Senator Ivana Bacik has campaigned with an emphasis on providing affordable housing, saying "This Government is failing. It has no common purpose. And never is this more evident than in relation to housing", as well as improving healthcare and childcare, tackling climate change, and achieving "a true republic in which church and State are separated". Bacik described herself as having "more bills passed into law than any other Senator, on issues such as workers' conditions, women’s health rights, and LGBT equality".

Bacik has also campaigned on increasing the number of sports amenities for children in the area, calling for unused Defence Forces football fields at the Cathal Brugha Barracks to be freed up for local sports, a suggestion rejected by Fine Gael Minister for Defence Simon Coveney. During the campaign, Bacik also called for public investment in housing as a solution to the housing crisis.

Duncan Smith was selected as the Director of Elections for Bacik's campaign on 14 May. Bacik asked voters to give their further preferences to left and centre-left candidates.

Sinn Féin

Following the announcement of the by-election, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald declared that the by-election would be fought by her party on the issue of housing; "It will be all about rents, affordable houses and social houses and the ongoing scandal of homelessness". Sinn Féin have stated they hope to use their controversial Abú voter database to assist in their election campaign. On 1 June 2021, Senator Lynn Boylan was nominated as the Sinn Féin candidate.

During the campaign, Boylan received criticism from Fine Gael's by-election candidate James Geoghegan for her her stance on the Special Criminal Court. Boylan asked voters to give their further preferences to left-wing candidates.

Social Democrats

Sarah Durcan was chosen as the Social Democrats candidate for the by-election on 2 June 2021. Following the announcement of her candidacy, Durcan declared that the by-election would be a "referendum" on the Government's housing and healthcare policies, and that it would be an opportunity to send a message to the government that "we should expect more". Durcan opined that the government had "put corporations and profits over communities, and shoddy short-term fixes over long-term benefits" and suggested that everyone should be able to access affordable housing and expect reasonable waiting times for healthcare services. Durcan asked voters to give their further preferences to those on the political left, and to women candidates.

People Before Profit

Brigid Purcell has campaigned on reducing pollution in the area, as well as protesting against the temporary closure of Portobello Plaza, with Dublin City Council stating the area had been closed due to anti-social behaviour and disregard for COVID-19 restrictions. At her official campaign launch on 17 June 2021 Purcell said she would campaign for workers and renters and spoke about her experiences as a worker mentioning her own experience of sexual harassment in Irish hospitality sector.

Purcell has held 'open air' public meetings in the constituency with Gino Kenny TD in relation to cannabis legalisation and with Paul Murphy TD in support of rent controls.

National Party

The National Party announced Justin Barrett's candidacy in a YouTube video on 9 June 2021. During the campaign The National Party's GoFundMe was removed for violating its terms of service; it also emerged that Barrett was under criminal investigation by the Garda Síochána for breaching COVID-19 regulations, as well as road traffic offences. When queried about these issues, Barrett reportedly told The Times that it was "none of our business" and "You always lie, you're the lying press."

Debates and media coverage

On 4 July a debate about the by-election was held on The Week in Politics on RTÉ One, featuring seven candidates from the parties who had placed highest in the 2020 general election. The remaining candidates were given the opportunity to be highlighted briefly midway during the broadcast in short pre-recorded clips. The five highest polling parties from 2020 had their candidates featured in another debate the next day on 5 July on Today with Claire Byrne on RTÉ Radio 1. Similarly to the television broadcast, the other candidates were briefly featured in short pre-recorded clips.

Aontú took legal action against RTÉ over the exclusion of their candidate from both broadcasts. Aontú suggested it was unfair that they were the only political party with a seat in Dáil Eireann not represented in the television broadcast. RTÉ stated that a steering committee had decided that the televised debates would feature the top seven parties based on their share of first preference votes in the 2020 general election while the radio debate would feature the top five, and that this criteria had been previously endorsed by a high court judge deciding on the matter.

On Sunday 3 July, RTÉ aired an episode of "National Treasures" which contained a segment exploring the family background of Labour's candidate Ivana Bacik. Subsequently, Fine Gael complained to RTÉ and suggested this gave undue coverage to her campaign. RTÉ responded by calling the situation an "inadvertent error" and to rectify it, they would air a special "extended report" on the by-election during Prime Time on Tuesday 6 July featuring all the other candidates in the by-election in order to ensure all candidates received "fair coverage". Social Democrats candidate Sarah Durcan commented on the matter "I think Fine Gael have been well able to pay for an awful lot of airtime all over the city as far as I can see ... so I think now that's a little bit late in the day to be having sour grapes about a bit of airtime".

Opinion polls

First Preferences

Last date of polling	Polling firm / Commissioner	Sample size	Geoghegan (FG)	Bacik (Lab)	Boylan (SF)	Byrne (GP)	Conroy (FF)	Durcan (SD)	Flynn (Ind)	Tóibín (Aon)	Purcell (PBP/S)	Barrett (NP)	Dooley (Ind)	O/I
			style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Social Democrats (Ireland)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Independent politicians in Ireland/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Aontú/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:People Before Profit/Solidarity/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:National Party (Ireland, 2016)/meta/color;"|	style="background:Template:Independent politicians in Ireland/meta/color;"|
27 June 2021	IPSOS MRBI/The Irish Times	553	27%	22%	13%	11%	10%	5%	5%	3%	2%	1%	1%	<1%

Second Preferences

Last date of polling	Polling firm / Commissioner	Sample size	Geoghegan (FG)	Bacik (Lab)	Boylan (SF)	Byrne (GP)	Conroy (FF)
			style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;" |
27 June 2021	IPSOS MRBI/The Irish Times	553	15%	19%	6%	25%	11%

Third Preferences

Last date of polling	Polling firm / Commissioner	Sample size	Geoghegan (FG)	Bacik (Lab)	Boylan (SF)	Byrne (GP)	Conroy (FF)
			style="background:Template:Fine Gael/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Labour Party (Ireland)/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Sinn Féin/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Green Party (Ireland)/meta/color;" |	style="background:Template:Fianna Fáil/meta/color;" |
27 June 2021	IPSOS MRBI/The Irish Times	553	10%	16%	4%	25%	13%

See also

• List of Dáil by-elections
• Dáil constituencies
• 2021 Seanad by-elections

External links

• Dublin City returning officer