Republican insurgency in Afghanistan

Not to be confused with Panjshir offensives (Soviet–Afghan War).

Panjshir conflict
Part of the Afghanistan conflict (1978–present)
Under control of the Taliban   Under control of the National Resistance Front (See a more detailed map of the current military situation in Afghanistan.)
Date 17 August 2021 – present Location Panjshir, Parwan, Baghlan, Wardak, and Daykundi provinces, Afghanistan Status Ongoing Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan claims to have taken control of Panjshir; Resistance forces deny and claim that its fighters are still present in strategic locations in the valley
Belligerents
Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) Islamic Defence Force of Afghanistan al-Qaeda (alleged) Pakistan (alleged)	Islamic Republic of Afghanistan National Resistance Front of Afghanistan Anti-Taliban Hazara militias India (alleged)
Commanders and leaders
Hibatullah Akhundzada Mohammad Yaqoob Abdul Ghani Baradar Qari Fasihuddin Maulawi Mohammed Faruq	Amrullah Saleh Ahmad Massoud Bismillah Khan Ahmad Zia Massoud Yasin Zia Fahim Dashty † Hamid Saifi General Abdul Wadud † Saleh Mohammed Raigistani † General Munib Amiri † Commander Gul Haider Khan †
Units involved
Islamic Defence Force of Afghanistan Islamic Army of Afghanistan Various pro-Taliban militias Pro-Taliban Hazara militias Pro-Taliban Tajik militias Foreign fighters (possibly affiliated with al-Qaeda) Pakistan Armed Forces (alleged) Pakistan Air Force (alleged)	Remnants of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) Afghan National Army troops Special forces Commandos Afghan Air Force remnants Various anti-Taliban militias Ahmad Massoud's militia Independent militias around Panjshir Pro-republican militias in Wardak and Daikundi RAW (alleged)
Strength
60,000–260,000 in Taliban armed forces, unknown how many were fighting.	2,000–10,000 (Panjshir resistance; estimates) c. 9,000 (Ahmad Massoud's forces; self-claim) Unknown number of independent militias
Casualties and losses
Panjshir resistance claim: 950+ killed, 1000+ captured	Panjshir resistance claims: Heavy casualties IEA claims: Heavy casualties Large number of POWs Large number of vehicles and weapons captured

The Panjshir conflict is an ongoing armed conflict between the formerly dominant Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, including the National Resistance Front and other groups, and the newly dominant Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan which is controlled by the Taliban. Shortly after the Fall of Kabul, the conflict began on 17 August 2021 when Amrullah Saleh assumed the Afghan presidency and declared the resistance. Ten days later, both sides declared a ceasefire and agreed to solve all problems through dialogue. By 1 September 2021, talks had broken down and fighting had resumed as the Taliban attacked resistance positions. On 6 September, the Taliban reportedly took full control of the province, with Resistance fighters retreating to the mountains to continue fighting within the province.

In addition to the opposition in the Panjshir, there are also districts in the center of the country that are still in resistance against the Taliban, supported by ethnic and religious minorities.

Background

The former Islamic Republic of Afghanistan exercises de facto control over the Panjshir Valley, which is largely contiguous with Panjshir Province and according to The Week, as of August 2021 is "the only region out of [the] Taliban's hands".

A majority of the population of the Panjshir valley are ethnic Tajik people, while the majority of the Taliban are Pashtuns.

The valley is well known for its natural defences. Surrounded by the Hindu Kush mountains, Panjshir never fell to the Soviets during the invasion of the 1980s nor to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s. Panjshir was also part of the Northern Alliance.

Saleh and Massoud announcements

On 17 August 2021, Saleh—citing provisions of the Constitution of Afghanistan—declared himself President of Afghanistan from the Panjshir Valley, and vowed to continue military operations against the Taliban from there. His claim to the presidency was endorsed by Ahmad Massoud and Islamic Republic of Afghanistan Minister of Defence Bismillah Khan Mohammadi along with the Embassy of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan in Dushanbe. On 23 August 2021, Massoud made contact with unnamed American lawmakers.

Disposition of forces

Islamic Republic of Afghanistan and anti-Taliban militias

Amrullah Saleh

Ahmad Massoud

Prior to the fall of Kabul, Panjshiris began moving military equipment from surrounding areas, including helicopters and armored vehicles, into Panjshir Province. There, they were joined by Afghan National Army commanders and soldiers, including commandos, ex-Mujahideen who had previously served Ahmad Massoud's late father, Ahmad Shah Massoud, and other anti-Taliban activists. Most of them regrouped at Baghlan Province's Andarab District before moving to Panjshir after making their escape from Kunduz, Badakhshan, Takhar, and Baghlan. According to a Russian estimate, the disparate Anti-Taliban forces had approximately 7,000 personnel under arms as of mid August 2021. Other estimates place this number as low as 2,000, though Saleh himself claims 10,000 men under arms. By 22 August 2021, Ahmad Massoud claimed to have gathered about 9,000 fighters and at least a "handful of armoured humvees" in the valley.

There are differences between the forces loyal to Saleh and those loyal to Ahmad Massoud, as the former is hardcore anti-Taliban and anti-Pakistani, whereas the latter maintained good relations with Pakistan which was supportive of the Taliban. As a result, Massoud was more willing to negiotiate with the Taliban. By 22 August 2021, the resistance also confirmed that several local militias had begun to fight the Taliban on their own, independent of the Panjshir-based forces. According to Yasin Zia, the resistance has already secured access to five helicopters formerly used by the Afghan military.

On 23 August 2021, it was reported that BM-21 Grads were acquired as a part of its arsenal.

Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

Main article: Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan

An estimate by the Combating Terrorism Center at the US Military Academy made prior to the Fall of Kabul estimated the strength of the Taliban, throughout the whole of Afghanistan, at 60,000 armed cadre supported by up to 200,000 irregulars. Due to the rapid capitulation of the Afghan National Army, the Taliban have since acquired substantial materiel of US manufacture, including armored vehicles and combat aircraft.

Timeline

Emergence of Panjshir resistance and first anti-Taliban revolts

Around 17 August 2021, remnants of the Afghan National Army began massing in the Panjshir Valley at the urging of Massoud, along with local civilians who had responded to his mobilization calls. At the time, the Panjshir Valley was—according to one observer—"under siege on all sides" but had not come under direct attack. On 18 August 2021, the number of admissions for war injuries was increasing at the Emergency Surgical Centre for War Victims in Anaba in Panjshir. By 22 August, Ahmad Massoud's forces were mostly focused on defending Panjshir as well as training.

Charikar

Andarab

Dih Salah

Puli Hisar

Kabul

Salang Pass

Jalalabad

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Approximate locations of fighting, August 17–23

On 17 August 2021, a negotiated end to the political impasse has been attempted, with Saleh calling for a "peace deal" with the Taliban. On 18 August, Mohammad Zahir Aghbar, the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan's ambassador to Tajikistan, indicated the possibility of including the Taliban in a coalition government as a means of ending the stalemate.

On 18 August 2021, local reports from Parwan Province reported that Saleh's forces had taken Charikar from Taliban fighters stationed in the area. In addition, there are reports of gunfights taking place near Salang Pass. On the following day, videos were released which showcased local fighters with flags of the old, anti-Taliban Northern Alliance parading through the streets of Charikar.

On 20 August 2021, anti-Taliban fighters reportedly recaptured Andarab, Puli Hisar and Dih Salah districts in Baghlan Province with the Taliban claiming 15 of its soldiers had been killed, while other sources reported that up to 60 Taliban fighters were killed or injured, and two dozen captured. The three districts had reportedly experienced a revolt, led by a local police chief, after Taliban had conducted unpopular house-to-house searches. Bismillah Khan Mohammadi announced the operational success of the districts being recaptured via Twitter.

Audiovisual reports of the events circulated on social media and were reported by Pajhwok Afghan News. Later on the 20th, it was reported that the forces, led by Abdul Hamid Dadgar, had recaptured Andarab, though the Taliban had not yet commented.

On 21 August 2021, it was reported that Panjshir representatives were meeting with Abdullah Abdullah and Hamid Karzai, members of the Coordination Council, to "discuss the current situation and ways of providing security to Afghans".

A source within the Panjshir resistance consequently confirmed their involvement in the operations in Baghlan Province, and stated that they planned on seizing a northern highway which could allow them to link up with Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. Taliban social media accounts called the counteroffensive a "betrayal" of the amnesty the Taliban had offered. It was reported on 22 August 2021 that Taliban fighters had been sent to the Keshnabad area of Andarab in order to kidnap the children of anti-Taliban forces.

Some sources report that, as of 18 August 2021, Islamic Republic forces were battling the Islamic Emirate for control of the Salang Pass (pictured 2005).

On 22 August 2021, the Russian Embassy in Afghanistan was reportedly asked by a Taliban representative to reach out to Panjshir-based leaders to possibly mediate. Meanwhile, resistance spokesman Ali Maisam Nazary informed the Agence France-Presse that Ahmad Massoud's group would prefer a peaceful resolution of the conflict, under the condition that a future government implemented a system of "decentralisation" and "equal rights" across the country. On 23 August 2021, Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that while Taliban fighters are being sent to Panjshir, the Taliban are willing to seek peaceful means to end the conflict.

Also, the Islamic Emirate gave the opposition forces a four-hour ultimatum to surrender. In a statement to Al Arabiya, Massoud rejected the ultimatum. In response, the IEA announced "hundreds" of its forces had been dispatched to the Panjshir Valley. It was reported on 23 August 2021 that talks between Taliban representatives and Panjshir leaders did not work. Ali Maisam Nazary, spokesman for the resistance, said that the Taliban made demands for Massoud to accept no elections with a centralized government, which Massoud rejected as he wanted a future government to be decentralized, with respect for civil and semi-autonomy rights.

An unidentified Taliban spokesperson proclaimed in a statement that "hundreds of Mujahideen of the Islamic Emirate are heading towards the state of Panjshir to control it, after local state officials refused to hand it over peacefully". It was reported that on 23 August 2021, Taliban commmander Qari Fashihuddin was tasked to lead offensive operations in Panjshir. The Taliban reported that several of their fighters were killed and others wounded in ambushes in Jabal Siraj.

On 23 August 2021, the Taliban claimed to have recaptured all 3 districts in Baghlan that fell to the resistance forces a week ago: Dih Salah District, Pul-e-Hisar and Andarab. A Taliban district chief stationed in Andarab was reported to be killed in the fighting. On 24 August 2021, according to Deccan Herald, Panjshir resistance fighters retook control of Banu and Dih Salah districts, while Puli Hisar remained under Taliban control. Saleh publicly warned via Twitter that Taliban fighters in Andarab were blocking humanitarian assistance for civilians trying to escape from the fighting and called it a "humanitarian disaster". On the following day, Massoud's forces claimed to have ambushed a Taliban convoy in Andarab, destroying a critical bridge and inflicting heavy losses on the Islamists.

On 24 August 2021, Major Wazir Akbar, an ex-Afghan commando who has joined the Panjshir-based resistance fighters, reported an attempted Taliban incursion at Anjuman Pass through Badakhshan province, which was repelled with heavy Taliban casualties.

Ceasefire and sporadic clashes

On 26 August 2021, a ceasefire was declared with the Taliban and the resistance entering into talks. Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said that he was "80 percent confident of a solution without war in the Panjshir Valley". On 29 August 2021, Panjshir representatives stated that there were no Taliban fighters trying to enter Panjshir, refuting information from Anaamullah Samangani, who is a member of the Taliban's Cultural Commission. On 1 September 2021, it was reported that ceasefire talks failed.

On 26 August 2021, according to a video published by Global Defense Corp, heavy fighting broke out between anti-Taliban resistance group in Panjshir Valley and Taliban. More than 200 Taliban fighters were driven out the Panjshir Valley and some were captured by anti-Taliban resistance group. The National Resistance Front (NRF) has also captured Pol-e-Hesar, Deh Salah and Banu districts.

On 28 August 2021, Panjshir fighters engaged Taliban fighters in Sanjan, Kapisa and in Khost Wa Fereng, Baghlan in response to allegations of ceasefire violations conducted by Taliban fighters in the area.

On 29 August 2021, internet and telecommunication services throughout Panjshir province were shut down on orders from the Taliban.

On 30 August 2021, Panjshir fighters ambushed Taliban fighters attempting to break into Panjshir from Andarab.

Taliban offensive and revolts in central Afghanistan

Panjshir Valley, the center of the anti-Taliban resistance, has been described as being extremely difficult to conquer.

On 31 August 2021, Taliban fighters commenced an offensive against the National Resistance Front in the provinces of Baghlan, Panjshir, and Parwan. Anti-Taliban sources claimed that the offensive involved al-Qaeda troops, a statement backed by videos in which pro-Taliban fighters were heard speaking non-native or locally uncommon languages such as Arabic. Sources reported that the offensive started when Taliban fighters were spotted entering Gulbahar and blocked the main road with a container. Taliban forces retook Dih Saleh District in Baghlan, allowing them to directly attack Panjshir. An initial Taliban assault through Khawak Pass connecting the Baghlan and central Panjshir Provinces failed. NRFA spokesperson Fahim Dashty said that the attack was likely done to test the area's defenses. Taliban troops also began to attack southern Panjshir from Gulbahar, resulting in heavy fighting. Despite being numerically superior to the defenders, the Taliban failed to break through.

On 1 September 2021, a day after clashes at the entry points of the valley were reported, Mullah Amir Khan Motaqi, the head of the Taliban's commission for guidance & encouragement stated over a twitter audio message to the people of Panjshir that attempts at reaching a negotiated settlement were "unfortunately all in vain." He lay the blame with the leadership of the resistance in Panjshir, saying there are still some people in the valley who "don't want the problems to be solved peacefully." He went on to say that Taliban has selected a native of the province as their desired governor. Despite the Taliban shutdown of Panjshir's internet, Fahim Dashti, the spokesperson for the Panjshir Resistance managed to conduct an interview with BBC Persian, in which he stated that the negotiations failed because of a fundamental difference of goals between the two sides. According to him, Panjshir resistance had the intention of extracting commitments and guarantees protecting freedoms and human and political rights of ethnic and religious minorities as well as women, but Taliban's goal in the negotiation was not to negotiate such guarantees, but to negotiate the extent of participation of the Panjshir opposition in a Taliban-led government that would satisfy the resistance.

On 2 September 2021, Panjshir sources claim that 13 Taliban fighters were killed in an ambush in Chikrinow district. Even though the offensive had stalled by this point, a Taliban spokesman said the valley was surrounded by all four directions and that a Panjshir resistance 'victory was impossible' as well as claiming Taliban territorial gains. Meanwhile, the Taliban claimed to have pushed into the Shotul district of Panjshir, but provided no firm proof for this claim. Analysts judged that the Taliban had probably advanced for a short time before being pushed back again. A minor Taliban attack on Anjuman Pass in northern Panjshir was reportedly easily repelled by Afghan commandos. In addition, local anti-Taliban forces from Andarab claimed to have retaken the crucial Khawak Pass.

Meanwhile, revolts had erupted in Wardak Province and Daikundi Province which are home to many Hazaras, an ethnic group which had been previously discriminated against by the Taliban. The situation in these provinces is complex, as local militia leaders had actually aided the Taliban takeover despite the disapproval of much of the population. In Daikundi's Khadir District, a revolt reportedly erupted as the pro-Taliban Hazara commander Muhammad Ali Sedaqat was ordered to disarm locals, with some fearing that the disarmament was not properly recorded and would expose locals to harassment by the Taliban. Fighting consequently broke out between the Taliban, pro-republic Hazaras, and pro-Taliban Hazaras. Local militias began to ambush Taliban troops.

By 4 September, Taliban forces had reached Anaba (pictured 2010).

On 3 September, the Taliban claimed to have captured Panjshir valley, however these claims were described as lies and propaganda by the local resistance leaders such as Saleh as well as international spectators. A NRF spokesperson stated that the situation was "difficult", but also that a Taliban push into the valley had resulted in the encirclement of a few hundred Taliban fighters. By the following day, heavy fighting was confirmed to be still continuing in the valley, with Paryan District reportedly being contested. A Italian medical aid organisation operating in the area confirmed that the Taliban had advanced up to Anaba; the Taliban claimed to have seized the districts of Khenj and Unabah. The NRF countered by claiming that they had managed to encircle even more Taliban troops, now numbering thousands, at Khawak Pass and Dashte Rewak. On 5 September, both sides achieved some successes: The NRF was able to force hundreds of encircled Taliban fighters to surrender in the valley, with the NRF claiming to have captured up to 1,500. In turn, local journalists confirmed that the Taliban had taken both Rukha and Paryan Districts, while NRF spokesman Fahim Dashty was killed in combat. The Taliban also claimed to have advanced into Panjshir's capital Bazarak. A The Times reporter who accompanied the Taliban testified that much of the valley appeared to be under Islamist control at this point, although groups of NRF fighters continued to strike at the Taliban behind the frontlines. Massoud reacted to the Taliban advance by declaring on Facebook that he was endorsing offers by local religious leaders to negotiate a peaceful solution of the conflict. However, Pakistani journalist and regional expert Ahmed Rashid argued that the Taliban had clearly expressed that they would not "tolerate what [Massoud is] asking for, which is a semi-autonomous region in the Panjshir Valley".

On 6 September, after heavy losses from clashing in the region, the Taliban had claimed they had captured all of Panjshir, with the Taliban flag being hoisted at a government office at Bazarak. The NRF had called for a ceasefire, with most NRF armies having been forced to the mountains. Massoud claimed to be at a safe location, while Saleh escaped to Tajikistan, according to a senior NRF official. The National Resistance Front denied the Taliban's claim on Twitter, claiming that resistance fighters are still present in all strategic positions in the valley, continuing their fight.

Foreign involvement

As of 23 August, there has been no public support for the resistance from the international community. At the start of the conflict, the US and other potential allies were focused on the concurrent Kabul airlift, which required the Taliban's cooperation. Massoud's op-ed in The Washington Post requesting Western support may be evidence of a lack of enthusiasm (for the resistance) in the US government.

On 27 August 2021, Tajiks from Kulob, Tajikistan have volunteered to prepare to fight against the Taliban, despite warnings from Tajik officials that it can be deemed illegal.

Journalists Carlotta Gall and Adam Nossiter wrote in The New York Times that the international community would be in a bind if they showed some form of support for the resistance because of the airlift operations. Abdul Matin Beyk suggested that other anti-Taliban forces are waiting to see if the Panjshir-based fighters will either resist to the end or keep considering negotiations from Taliban representatives. He suggests that their successes can inspire others to do the same.

Erika Simpson, president of the Canadian Peace Research Association, said that it was potentially risky for a country to publicly support the resistance from inside Afghanistan and suggested that it was better to support anti-Taliban resistance groups based overseas.

According to an India Today report, the former Samangan MP Zia Arianjad said on 6 September that defending resistance forces had been bombed by drones of the Pakistan Air Force using smart bombs. As per reports, Pakistan's special forces have also assisted the Taliban in attacking the resistance.

See also

• War in Afghanistan (2001–2021)
• 2021 Taliban offensive
• 2021 Afghan protests
• List of drone strikes in the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan