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== Effects ==
== Effects ==
Turkey is forecast to be more severely effected than many other countries.<ref name="TPQ">{{cite web|title=Warming a Frozen Policy: Challenges to Turkey's Climate Politics After Paris|url=http://turkishpolicy.com/article/818/warming-a-frozen-policy-challenges-to-turkeys-climate-politics-after-paris|publisher=Turkish Policy Quarterly}}</ref><ref name="3rd BR">{{cite book |title=Turkey's Seventh National Communication and Third Biennial Report to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |publisher=Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization |url=http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/biennial_reports_and_iar/submitted_biennial_reports/application/pdf/1428795_turkey-br3-1-tur.br3.english.pdf |accessdate=2 November 2018}}</ref> The effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.<ref name="TemaWWF" />
Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries.<ref name="TPQ">{{cite web|title=Warming a Frozen Policy: Challenges to Turkey's Climate Politics After Paris|url=http://turkishpolicy.com/article/818/warming-a-frozen-policy-challenges-to-turkeys-climate-politics-after-paris|publisher=Turkish Policy Quarterly}}</ref><ref name="3rd BR">{{cite book |title=Turkey's Seventh National Communication and Third Biennial Report to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change |publisher=Republic of Turkey Ministry of Environment and Urbanization |url=http://unfccc.int/files/national_reports/biennial_reports_and_iar/submitted_biennial_reports/application/pdf/1428795_turkey-br3-1-tur.br3.english.pdf |accessdate=2 November 2018}}</ref> The effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.<ref name="TemaWWF" /> Agriculture and food production will be greatly affected in the second half of the 21st century after the 2030s. Irrigated production in particular will decline as water stress increases. A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. The impact on nature and health will not be outdone<ref>{{cite book |first1=Hasan Dudu & Erol H. Çakmak, climate and development |title=Climate change and agriculture: an integrated approach to evaluate economy-wide effects for Turkey |date=2018 |publisher=Hasan Dudu & Erol H. Çakmak |location=Turkey |isbn=ISSN: 1756-5529 (Print) 1756-5537 (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/tcld20 |page=1 |pages=1 |url=https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2017.1372259}}</ref>.


=== Weather ===
=== Weather ===
Line 51: Line 51:


=== Fishing ===
=== Fishing ===
The warming of [[Lake Van]] is reducing oxygen for [[pearl mullet]].<ref>{{cite news |title=Lake Van warms up, threatening ecosystem |url=https://www.dailysabah.com/life/2018/02/21/lake-van-warms-up-threatening-ecosystem |agency=Ihlas News Agency |date=21 February 2018}}</ref> According to the report of [[Food and Agriculture Organization|Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations]], fishing-oriented sectors in the [[Black Sea Region]] of Turkey are argued to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/1078885208|title=Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture : synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options|others=Barange, Manuel, 1961-, Bahri, Tarûb,, Beveridge, Malcolm C. M.,, Cochrane, K. L.,, Funge Smith, S. (Simon),, Poulain, Florence,|isbn=92-5-130607-9|location=Rome|oclc=1078885208}}</ref>
The warming of [[Lake Van]] is reducing oxygen for [[pearl mullet]].<ref>{{cite news |title=Lake Van warms up, threatening ecosystem |url=https://www.dailysabah.com/life/2018/02/21/lake-van-warms-up-threatening-ecosystem |agency=Ihlas News Agency |date=21 February 2018}}</ref> According to the report of [[Food and Agriculture Organization|Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations]], fishing-oriented sectors in the [[Black Sea Region]] of Turkey are argued to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change.<ref>{{Cite book|url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/1078885208|title=Impacts of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture : synthesis of current knowledge, adaptation and mitigation options|others=Barange, Manuel, 1961-, Bahri, Tarûb,, Beveridge, Malcolm C. M.,, Cochrane, K. L.,, Funge Smith, S. (Simon),, Poulain, Florence,|isbn=92-5-130607-9|location=Rome|oclc=1078885208}}</ref>


== Politics ==
== Politics ==

Revision as of 17:53, 30 November 2020

This article is about the effects of global warming on the Eurasian country and adaptation to it. For gases which contribute to global warming, and their mitigation, see Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey.
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey
Flash floods are predicted to become more frequent as here in Sinop
but the Büyük Menderes River, full in November 2007, may halve its average flow by 2100.
The glacier on Mount Ararat will soon be gone
and anchovies may no longer swim to Turkish waters.
Zonguldak: Turkey's first coal mining region would need help to give up.
There is hope: trees in the northeast are being helped by Anatolian reforestation.

Climate change in Turkey is leading to a rise in annual temperatures as well as maximum temperatures.[1][2] Turkey is one of the countries which is being most affected by climate change.[3][4] Turkey's weather is becoming more extreme.[5]

Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey are 1% of the global total[6] and are forecast to rise substantially[7] because the energy policy of Turkey is to heavily subsidize coal in Turkey.[8] Turkey is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement.[9]

Greenhouse gas emissions

Main article: Greenhouse gas emissions by Turkey
Some of the sector that contribute to Greenhouse emission of gas in Turkey

The greenhouse gases emitted by Turkey are not overlooked. The most recent available data compiled by the International Energy Agency shows Turkey is among the 20 countries which emitted the most carbon dioxide in 2018. It is ranked as the 15th largest emitter of total CO2 (0, 42 GT) and 16th largest emitter of CO2 per capita (5.21T)[10]. In 2019, 1.09% of total CO2; 5.1 CO2 per capita and 0.18 ton CO2 / $ 1000 are emitted [11]. Turkey emits about 500 Mt CO2eq gross each year, about 6 tons per person.[12] Almost three quarters is from the energy sector,[12] the largest source being Turkey's coal-fired power stations.[13] Despite the country being one of the largest emitters of CO2 in the atmosphere, Turkey's commitment is not in line with the objective of the Paris agreement to reduce heating to the rate of 2°C even less than 1 , 5°C. If all countries like Turkey refused to commit, the heating could even exceed the 4°C[14] Climate Action Tracker (CAT) predicts a reduction in emissions during the Covid-19 pandemic which will have only a limited impact. Emissions will resume their course after the plague and reach 40% to 70% by 2030 from the current level[15].

Effects

Turkey is forecast to be more severely affected than many other countries.[16][17] The effects will vary considerably across the regions of the country.[18] Agriculture and food production will be greatly affected in the second half of the 21st century after the 2030s. Irrigated production in particular will decline as water stress increases. A significant decline in agricultural production is transmitted throughout the economy and reduces national welfare. The impact on nature and health will not be outdone[19].

Weather

The weather is becoming more extreme.[5] During the 21st century temperatures are forecast to rise by 2-3 °C on average and precipitation to significantly reduce.[20] However, as well as more droughts more floods are predicted, due to rain falling instead of snow.[21] The worst case is a 7 degree rise by 2100.[22]

Health

Climate change may impact health in Turkey, for example due to increased heatwaves.[23]

Another effect that might occur as a result of climate change is the floods due to sudden rains. According to the data of international disaster database (EM-DAT), 1,350 people died because of the floods occurred between 1970 and 2014 in Turkey and about 2 million people were affected by these floods.[17]

The 2011 National Action Plan on Climate Change revealed that the average annual temperature is estimated to rise by 2.5 °C to 4 °C in the next few years.[24][25]

Wildfires

Wildfires have increased[26] due to climate change.[27]

Cities

Urban heatwaves,[28] droughts,[29] storms,[30] and flooding,[31] may increase.[32] Sea level rise is forecast to affect city infrastructure, for example Istanbul Kadıkoy metro station is threatened with flooding.[21] Xeriscaping of green spaces has been suggested,[33] and Istanbul has a climate change action plan.[34] However, according to a 2018 study by Trakya University more local climate change action plans need to be prepared urgently.[35]

Water

Glaciers in Turkey including the glaciers on Mount Ararat are retreating.[36] According to Professor Barış Karapınar, water is lost through evaporation due to old-fashioned irrigation techniques used by the Southeastern Anatolia Project, increasing the risk of severe water shortage.[37] Reduced precipitation[38] and hydroelectricity in Turkey is forecast.[39] Floods in 2020 caused billions of lira in damages.[40]

Agriculture

Turkish Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing Industry

Like many sectors, effects of climate change are observed by concentration of GHGs. In 2017, the total value of emissions calculated for the agricultural sector for the Republic of Turkey represents 14.7% of the total value of emissions (62.5 Mt CO2 eq), including the sector Land use, change of use land and forestry (LULUCF); and 11.9% of all issues outside the LULUCF sector.[41] Unless global emissions are greatly reduced agriculture in Turkey, such as wheat,[42][43] is expected to be severely affected after the late 2030s especially in areas with rain fed agriculture.[44] Arid and semi-arid areas are at risk of desertification.[4] Irrigated agriculture will decline as water stress increases and increasing food imports will hit Turkey's trade balance.[44] Damage to agriculture [45] is predicted to greatly increase.[44] Pine nut production has been severely reduced.[46]

Fishing

The warming of Lake Van is reducing oxygen for pearl mullet.[47] According to the report of Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, fishing-oriented sectors in the Black Sea Region of Turkey are argued to be sensitive to the impacts of climate change.[48]

Politics

According to the Eleventh Development Plan (2019-2023): "It is seen that climate change accelerating due to high greenhouse gas emissions causes natural disasters and poses a serious threat to humanity." and "International climate change negotiations will be conducted within the framework of the Intended National Contribution with the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and within the scope of national conditions, climate change will be tackled in sectors causing greenhouse gas emissions and the resilience of the economy and society to climate risks will be increased by capacity building for adaptation to climate change."[49]

Turkey, like neighbouring Iran, is one of the few countries that has signed but not ratified the Paris Agreement, in other words it is a signatory but not one of the parties to the agreement.[9] The main opposition Republican People's Party has called for the agreement to be ratified.[50][51]

Similarly Turkey has signed but not ratified the Kigali Amendment.[52] It has no carbon tax or emissions trading scheme, therefore carbon capture and storage is not used as it is not economically viable.[53] Also "given the fact that a new coal-fired power plant has a minimum of 40 years of economic life, Turkey's coal rush could create an inextricable carbon lock-in."[16]

Economics

Although it is very difficult to determine with certainty the future economic impacts of climate change, the studies' previsions indicate enormous losses if adequate solutions are not put in place. So, Millions of dollars could be lost.[54] In fact, evidence already exists at this level. Recently, 09 October 2020, the expert on climate change, Murat Türkeş told that in daily Hürriyet: “We have the statistics, climate change and global warming have hit us. We face a loss of millions of dollars. Even new great damages await,”. Loss in Gross Domestic Product per capita by 2100 is forecast to be less than 1% for slight global warming (RCP2.6 Scenario) but almost 8% for severe global warming (RCP8.5 Scenario).[55]

Education

The arts are raising awareness of climate change, and education is supported by the EU.[56][57]

Misunderstandings about climate change

Individual action on climate change is not properly understood (in a survey of primary school teachers many erroneously prioritised using less cosmetics) and neither are government choices on climate change mitigation (in the same survey only a minority correctly prioritised curbing fossil fuel use).[58] Future warming of seawater by Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant is wrongly thought by some to be relevant to climate change,[18] and few know that geothermal power in Turkey might emit considerable CO2.[59]

Adaptation

In 2019 the OECD recommended that adaptation efforts be increased.[60] An international conference on local actions was held, and work on 12 regional adaptation plans continued.[61][62] Protection of water resources and soil quality have been considered.[63] However, Turkey has yet to submit a National Adaptation Plan to the UNFCCC.[64]

Society and culture

Media coverage

In the 1990s independent media outlet Açık Radyo (Open Radio) was one of the first to cover climate change, and its founder Ömer Madra(in Turkish) emphasises "The three Y’s in the fight on climate change: Yerel (local) Yatay (horizontal, not vertical) and Yavaş (slow, no resort to violence)."[65] İklim Haber is another active source for the coverage of climate change issues for the readers in Turkey. They describe their operations as "focusing on latest developments from the areas of climate science, climate policy, and the economy of climate change by trying to publish the news objectively and data-oriented." [66]

Public perception of climate change in Turkey

In 2018, Turkish climate news hub İklim Haber and Turkey’s leading polling company Konda Research asserted that: "there is a wide public consensus about climate change (86%) and the majority (%75) of the population say that they are concerned about climate change. The research points out that Turkey’s energy sources of preference are solar and wind energy by a large margin." in the report of "Climate Change Perceptions and Energy Preferences in Turkey".[67] According to the latest report written in Turkish and prepared by another collaboration of İklim Haber and Konda Research in 2020, 51,5% of the public opinion believe that the climate crisis is a bigger threat than the Coronavirus crisis. Also, 71,4% of the public opinion acknowledge that current climate crisis is a result of human activities.[68]

Protests

In 2019 some Turkish schoolchildren joined the School strike for climate.[69] Turkey's branch of Extinction Rebellion demonstrated for Turkey to ratify the Paris Agreement.[70]

Religion

Hagia Sophia. built as the new Cathedral of Constantinople by the Emperor Justinian in 537 AD

Muslim environmentalists and academics quote the Quran in support of their environmentalism.[71] In Istanbul in 2015, Islamic leaders urged the world's 1.6 billion Muslims to help defeat climate change.[72][73]

History

Pre-modern climate change

There were 2 significant periods of climate change in the Bronze Age.[74]

Modern age

According to Prof. Dr. Murat Türkeş, a member of the board of Boğaziçi University’s Center for Climate Change and Policy Studies, modern climate change in Turkey started in the 1970s.[75]

Present and future Köppen-Geiger climate classification maps

Main article: Köppen climate classification
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey (1980-2016)
Köppen–Geiger climate classification map for Turkey (2071-2100)

Sources

References

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  72. ^ "Islamic Declaration on Climate Change" UNFCCC, 18 August 2015
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  74. ^ October 30; 2020. "Study: Ancient people in Turkey adapted to climate change". Cornell Chronicle. Retrieved 2020-11-11. {{cite web}}: |last2= has numeric name (help)CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  75. ^ "Turkey in the midst of climate change, says climate expert - Turkey News". Hürriyet Daily News. Retrieved 2020-11-11.
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