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2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.
2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Bob Casey Jr.
Democratic



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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.[1]

Background

Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. However, the Democratic Party has seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, and a majority of its U.S. Representatives in its congressional delegation, while the last time Republicans won a Senate seat was in 2016.[2][3][4][5]

Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[6][7][8]

This race is considered to be favoring Casey however, some consider this race to be amongst the most competitive senate races in 2024.[9]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Bob Casey
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
Individuals
Organizations

Republican primary

Candidates

Publicly expressed interest

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

David McCormick[a]
Party officials

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Kathy
Barnette 		Doug
Mastriano 		David
McCormick 		Undecided
Public Policy Polling (D) March 9–10, 2023 616 (LV) – 11% 39% 21% 29%
– – 42% 28% 29%

Independents

Candidates

Filed paperwork

  • Reece Wright-McDonald, writer[23]

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Lean D January 24, 2023
Inside Elections[25] Battleground January 6, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Likely D January 24, 2023

Polling

Hypothetical polling
Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		Doug
Mastriano (R) 		Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 3.7% 47% 31% 22%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 49% 39% 12%
Bob Casey Jr. vs. David McCormick
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Bob
Casey Jr. (D) 		David
McCormick (R) 		Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) May 2–8, 2023 700 (LV) ± 3.7% 53% 41% 1% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College March 27 – April 7, 2023 643 (RV) ± 6.6% 42% 35% – 23%
Cygnal (R) April 12–13, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 41% – 13%

Notes

  1. ^ Has not declared their candidacy
  2. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

References

  1. ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
  2. ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  3. ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  4. ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  5. ^ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  6. ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  7. ^ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  8. ^ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
  9. ^ Hudson, Lee. "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". POLITICO. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
  10. ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  11. ^ a b c Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  12. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  13. ^ Caldwell, Leigh Ann (April 10, 2023). "Senate 2024 contests begin to take shape". Washington Post. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
  14. ^ Ulrich, Steve (April 20, 2023). "Mastriano Says He's Reached Decision On U.S. Senate Run". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  15. ^ Doug Mastriano [@dougmastriano] (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano Fighting For Freedom https://www.facebook.com/Fight4pa?mibextid=LQQJ4d" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  16. ^ Itkowitz, Colby (March 13, 2023). "David McCormick allies hope to avoid a GOP Senate primary fight in Pa". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  17. ^ a b Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  18. ^ Steinhauser, Paul (December 12, 2022). "Pennsylvania's McCormick taking steps that hint at potential 2024 Senate campaign". Fox News. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  19. ^ Heller, Karen (November 10, 2022). "Where does Dr. Oz — and his reputation — go from here?". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
  20. ^ Egger, Andrew; Drucker, David; Fahlberg, Audrey (April 17, 2023). "Arizona GOP Primary Gets First Major Contender". The Dispatch. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  21. ^ "Daines walks Trump tightrope as he tries to win back Senate for Republicans". Washington Post. March 6, 2023.
  22. ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
  23. ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1673338". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
  24. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  25. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  26. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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