2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania
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Elections in Pennsylvania |
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Pennsylvania. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey Jr. announced his intention to run for a fourth term on April 10, 2023.[1]
Background
Pennsylvania is considered to be a purple state at the federal level, especially since in the 2020 presidential election, Joe Biden carried Pennsylvania by about 1.2 percentage points. However, the Democratic Party has seen success in the state in recent years. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, the Governorship, and a majority of its U.S. Representatives in its congressional delegation, while the last time Republicans won a Senate seat was in 2016.[2][3][4][5]
Senator Bob Casey Jr. was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent senator Rick Santorum by about 17 percentage points. He was re-elected in 2012 by 9 percentage points and in 2018 by 13 percentage points.[6][7][8]
This race is considered to be favoring Casey however, some consider this race to be amongst the most competitive senate races in 2024.[9]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Bob Casey Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator (2007–present)[10]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- John Fetterman, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania (2023–present)[11]
- U.S. Representatives
- Chris Deluzio, PA-17 (2023–present)[11]
- Statewide officials
- Josh Shapiro, Governor of Pennsylvania (2023–present)[11]
- Individuals
- Cristina Tzintzún Ramirez, labor organizer and president of NextGen America PAC (2021–present)[12]
- Organizations
Republican primary
Candidates
Publicly expressed interest
- Doug Mastriano, state senator for SD-33 (2019–present) and nominee for Governor of Pennsylvania in 2022[13][14] (announcement on May 25, 2023)[15]
- David McCormick, former U.S. Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs (2007–2009), former CEO of Bridgewater Associates (2020–2022), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022 (decision expected in late 2023)[16]
Potential
- Stacy Garrity, Pennsylvania State Treasurer (2021–present)[17][18]
- Mehmet Oz, former cardiologist, former host of The Dr. Oz Show, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[19]
- Keith Rothfus, former U.S. Representative for Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district (2013–2019)[20]
- Carla Sands, former U.S. Ambassador to Denmark and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[21]
Declined
- Kathy Barnette, political commentator, nominee for Pennsylvania's 4th congressional district in 2020, and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[22]
Endorsements
- Party officials
- Sam DeMarco, Allegheny County councilor and chair of the Allegheny County Republican Party[17]
Polling
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kathy Barnette |
Doug Mastriano |
David McCormick |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D) | March 9–10, 2023 | 616 (LV) | – | 11% | 39% | 21% | 29% |
– | – | 42% | 28% | 29% |
Independents
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Reece Wright-McDonald, writer[23]
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[24] | Lean D | January 24, 2023 |
Inside Elections[25] | Battleground | January 6, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] | Likely D | January 24, 2023 |
Polling
- Bob Casey Jr. vs. Doug Mastriano
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
Doug Mastriano (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 31% | 22% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
- Bob Casey Jr. vs. David McCormick
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Bob Casey Jr. (D) |
David McCormick (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Susquehanna Polling & Research (R) | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 53% | 41% | 1% | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 6.6% | 42% | 35% | – | 23% |
Cygnal (R) | April 12–13, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 41% | – | 13% |
Notes
References
- ^ "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024 | CNN Politics". CNN. April 10, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania 2020 presidential election results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Governor Midterm Election Results and Maps 2022 | CNN Politics". CNN. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ Narea, Nicole (February 8, 2023). "Democrats in Pennsylvania just won the 2022 midterms. Again". Vox. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016". Ballotpedia. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ A 501tax-exempt; Street, charitable organization 1100 13th; NW; Washington, Suite 800; Dc 20005857-0044. "Pennsylvania Senate 2006 Race". OpenSecrets. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link) - ^ "Pennsylvania". The New York Times. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ "Pennsylvania Senate Election Results 2018: Live Midterm Map by County & Analysis". www.politico.com. Retrieved March 19, 2023.
- ^ Hudson, Lee. "Bob Casey running for Senate reelection". POLITICO. Retrieved April 19, 2023.
- ^ Wright, David (April 10, 2023). "Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey will run for reelection, boosting Democrats' Senate outlook for 2024". CNN. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
- ^ a b c Kail, Benjamin (April 30, 2023). "Sen. Bob Casey is starting his 2024 Senate campaign with a big head start". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
- ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Bob Casey Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
- ^ Caldwell, Leigh Ann (April 10, 2023). "Senate 2024 contests begin to take shape". Washington Post. Retrieved April 10, 2023.
- ^ Ulrich, Steve (April 20, 2023). "Mastriano Says He's Reached Decision On U.S. Senate Run". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ Doug Mastriano [@dougmastriano] (May 25, 2023). "Doug Mastriano Fighting For Freedom https://www.facebook.com/Fight4pa?mibextid=LQQJ4d" (Tweet). Retrieved May 24, 2023 – via Twitter.
- ^ Itkowitz, Colby (March 13, 2023). "David McCormick allies hope to avoid a GOP Senate primary fight in Pa". The Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ a b Levy, Marc (December 8, 2022). "Trump blowback could carry less bite in 2024 for some in GOP". Associated Press. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
- ^ Steinhauser, Paul (December 12, 2022). "Pennsylvania's McCormick taking steps that hint at potential 2024 Senate campaign". Fox News. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
- ^ Heller, Karen (November 10, 2022). "Where does Dr. Oz — and his reputation — go from here?". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved January 19, 2023.
- ^ Egger, Andrew; Drucker, David; Fahlberg, Audrey (April 17, 2023). "Arizona GOP Primary Gets First Major Contender". The Dispatch. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
- ^ "Daines walks Trump tightrope as he tries to win back Senate for Republicans". Washington Post. March 6, 2023.
- ^ Lippman, Daniel; Otterbein, Holly (March 15, 2023). "MAGA favorite Kathy Barnette says she won't run again for Senate". POLITICO. Retrieved March 16, 2023.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1673338". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved December 26, 2022.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites