2024 United States Senate election in Arizona
 | |||||||||
| |||||||||
| |||||||||
| |||||||||
| Elections in Arizona |
|---|
 |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Arizona will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Arizona. Primary elections will take place on August 6, 2024.[1] This election is the fifth consecutive even-number year in which a senate election will be held in Arizona after elections in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Background
Arizona is considered to be a formerly red but now purple state at the federal level, voting for Donald Trump by 3.5 percentage points in 2016 and for Joe Biden by roughly 0.3 percentage points in 2020. Both parties have seen success in the state in recent years, with Democrats controlling the other U.S. Senate seat and the governorship after flipping the latter in 2022, while Republicans hold a majority of its U.S. House seats and control the state legislature.
Incumbent one-term centrist[2] independent senator Kyrsten Sinema was first elected as a Democrat in 2018 with 50% of the vote, succeeding retiring Republican Jeff Flake. Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022.
Sinema has not declared if she will run for re-election, but filed paperwork to do so in April 2023.[3] U.S. representative Ruben Gallego is seeking the Democratic nomination, while Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb is running for the Republican nomination. Due to the uncertainty regarding Sinema's intentions, the state's purple lean, and the potential for a three-way race, most analysts currently consider the race to be a tossup.[who?]
Independents
Candidates
Filed paperwork
- Kyrsten Sinema, incumbent U.S. senator (2019–present)[3]
Endorsements
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Kyrsten Sinema (I) | $15,508,693 | $4,924,254 | $10,755,965 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[5] | |||
Democratic primary
Sinema was considered highly vulnerable to a primary challenge due to her opposition to several parts of the Democratic Party's legislative agenda. The most prominent dispute was over the Build Back Better Act, specifically the provisions concerning lowering prescription drug prices, as well as her opposition to increasing the minimum wage and to filibuster reform. Prospective polling showed Sinema trailing all of her potential challengers by wide margins, with U.S. representative Ruben Gallego being viewed by numerous political analysts as the frontrunner to challenge her.[6] On January 22, 2022, the Arizona Democratic Party voted overwhelmingly to censure Sinema for a second time for voting against a carve-out to the filibuster in a Democratic-led effort to pass the John Lewis Voting Rights Act.
During the congressional consideration of the Inflation Reduction Act in August 2022, Sinema did not initially announce support for the bill, doing so only after Democratic leaders agreed to remove a provision on closing the so-called carried interest tax loophole, the closure of which would have raised taxes on hedge fund owners and investment managers.[7] This action renewed calls from Democrats for Sinema to face a primary opponent in her next election.[8]
Sinema left the Democratic Party in December 2022 and registered as an independent.[3]
Candidates
Declared
- Andrew Becerra, engineer[9]
- Ruben Gallego, U.S. representative for Arizona's 3rd congressional district (2015–present)[10]
Declined
- Kate Gallego, Mayor of Phoenix (2019–present)[11][12]
- Greg Stanton, U.S. representative for Arizona's 4th congressional district (2019–present) and former mayor of Phoenix (2012–2018)[13]
Endorsements
Ruben Gallego
- U.S. senators
- Dennis DeConcini, former U.S. senator from Arizona (1977–1995)[14]
- U.S. representatives
- Dan Goldman, NY-10 (2023–present)[15]
- Raúl Grijalva, AZ-7 (2003–present)[16]
- Ann Kirkpatrick, AZ-2 (2009–2011, 2013–2017, 2019–2023)[17]
- Seth Moulton, MA-6 (2015–present)[18]
- Nancy Pelosi, CA-11 (1987–present) and former speaker of the house (2007–2011, 2019–2023)[19]
- Linda Sánchez, CA-38 (2013–present)[20]
- Local officials
- Corey Woods, mayor of Tempe (2020–present)[21]
- Labor unions
- Communications Workers of America Arizona State Council[22]
- International Brotherhood of Teamsters Local 104[23]
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Ruben Gallego (D) | $6,881,510 | $4,372,714 | $3,783,745 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[5] | |||
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego |
Alexander Keller |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 571 (LV) | – | 48% | 6% | 6%[b] | 40% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Kate Gallego |
Ruben Gallego |
Kathy Hoffman |
Regina Romero |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Greg Stanton |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Data for Progress (D) | January 21–24, 2022 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | – | 74% | – | – | 16% | – | 10% |
| – | 66% | – | – | 17% | – | 17% | ||||
| OH Predictive Insights | November 1–8, 2021 | 229 (RV) | ± 6.5% | – | 47% | – | – | 24% | – | 29% |
| – | – | 44% | – | 24% | – | 32% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 25% | 47% | 28% | ||||
| Data for Progress (D)[A] | October 8–10, 2021 | 467 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 9% | 23% | – | 9% | 19% | 13% | 26% |
| 60% | – | – | – | 25% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | 62% | – | – | 23% | – | 15% | ||||
| – | – | – | 55% | 26% | – | 19% | ||||
| – | – | – | – | 24% | 59% | 17% |
Republican primary
Former Arizona governor Doug Ducey was considered a potential candidate, but said he would not run.[30] He would likely have faced a contested primary election due to former President Donald Trump's repeated criticism of him for refusing to overturn the results of the 2020 presidential election. Pro-Trump contenders include congressman Andy Biggs and Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb, who has reportedly been encouraged to run by 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake, who herself has expressed interest in running for the seat.[31][32]
Candidates
Declared
- Mark Lamb, Pinal County Sheriff (2017–present)[33]
- George Nicholson, business consultant[34]
- Brian Wright, mechanical engineer[35]
Announcment pending
- Kari Lake, former KSAZ-TV news anchor and nominee for Governor of Arizona in 2022 (announcement scheduled for October 10)[36]
Filed paperwork
- Alan White, investor, U.S. Air Force veteran, and Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in 2020[37]
Publicly expressed interest
- Jim Lamon, solar power executive and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2022[38]
- Blake Masters, former president of the Thiel Foundation, former COO of Thiel Capital, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2022[39]
Declined
- Juan Ciscomani, U.S. representative for Arizona's 6th congressional district (2023–present)[40][41]
- Doug Ducey, former governor of Arizona (2015–2023)[42][30]
- Karrin Taylor Robson, former member of the Arizona Board of Regents (2017–2021) and candidate for Governor of Arizona in 2022[43]
- David Schweikert, U.S. representative for Arizona's 1st congressional district (2011–present)[44]
- Kelli Ward, former state senator from the 5th district (2013–2015), former chair of the Arizona Republican Party (2019–2023), and candidate for U.S. Senate in 2016 and 2018[40][32]
Endorsements
Mark Lamb
- Organizations
Fundraising
| Campaign finance reports as of June 30, 2023 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
| Mark Lamb (R) | $607,722 | $272,385 | $335,337 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[5] | |||
Polling
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Abe Hamadeh |
Kari Lake |
Mark Lamb |
Jim Lamon |
Blake Masters |
Karrin Taylor Robson |
Brian Wright |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2-4, 2023 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.7% | – | 42% | 11% | 2% | 7% | – | 2% | – | 28% |
| J.L. Partners | April 10-12, 2023 | 550 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 4% | 38% | 8% | 3% | 7% | 10% | – | 2% | 29% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[46] | Tossup | August 8, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[47] | Tossup | July 28, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[48] | Tossup | January 24, 2023 |
| Elections Daily[49] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
Hypothetical polling
- Ruben Gallego vs. Kari Lake (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Kari Lake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 35% | – | 20% |
| 34% | 25% | 26% | 15% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 42% | 35% | 14% | 9% |
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 33% | – | 24% |
| 34% | 26% | 19% | 21% | ||||
| Normington Petts (D)[C] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 36% | 36% | 24% | 4% |
| 50% | 45% | – | 5% | ||||
| Blueprint Polling (D) | January 5–8, 2023 | 618 (V) | ± 3.9% | 32% | 36% | 14% | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | December 21, 2022 | 650 (V) | ± 3.8% | 40% | 41% | 13% | 6% |
| 48% | 47% | – | 5% | ||||
| – | 42% | 39% | 19% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Doug Ducey (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Doug Ducey (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 38% | 34% | – | 28% |
| 32% | 27% | 17% | 23% | ||||
| Normington Petts (D)[C] | January 18–23, 2023 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 37% | 31% | 27% | 5% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Blake Masters (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Blake Masters (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 44% | 36% | – | 20% |
| 32% | 24% | 28% | 16% | ||||
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 32% | – | 26% |
| 33% | 24% | 22% | 21% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Karrin Taylor-Robson (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Karrin Taylor Robson (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Public Opinion Pulse / OH Predictive Insights | January 31 – February 9, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 36% | 32% | – | 32% |
| 31% | 24% | 21% | 25% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Mark Lamb (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Mark Lamb (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 42% | 42% | – | 16% |
| 36% | 29% | 21% | 15% | ||||
| Noble Predictive Insights | July 13–17, 2023 | 1000 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 40% | 36% | – | 24% |
| 33% | 25% | 24% | 18% | ||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 33% | 15% | 9% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Jim Lamon (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Jim Lamon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[B] | April 18–19, 2023 | 559 (V) | – | 43% | 27% | 16% | 14% |
- Ruben Gallego vs. Brian Wright (vs. Kyrsten Sinema)
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ruben Gallego (D) |
Brian Wright (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (I) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | August 2–4, 2023 | 1,337 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 41% | 38% | – | 21% |
| 37% | 25% | 26% | 12% |
Notes
- Partisan clients
References
- ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved August 6, 2023.
- ^ Staff. "Kyrsten Sinema, Senator for Arizona". GovTrack.us. Retrieved April 23, 2023.
- ^ a b c Collins, Eliza (April 7, 2023). "Kyrsten Sinema Is Preparing for a 2024 Re-Election Campaign". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved April 7, 2023.
- ^ Rod, Marc (March 16, 2023). "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". Jewish Insider.
- ^ a b c "2024 Election United States Senate - Arizona". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
- ^ Ryan O'Donnell; Gustavo Sanchez; Brian Burton (October 14, 2021). "Poll: Kyrsten Sinema Poised to Lose Democratic Primary in 2024". Data for Progress.
- ^ Zoë Richards; Frank Thorp V; Sahil Kapur (August 4, 2022). "Sen. Kyrsten Sinema signs off on Democrats' big agenda bill, paving the way for Senate passage". CNBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ Kupar, Sahil (August 2, 2022). "Sinema faces conflicting pressures in Arizona on Democrats' big agenda bill". NBC. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ "Dems of Greater Tucson Presents: See Our 2023 Speakers". Democrats of Greater Tucson. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
- ^ Lah, Kate Sullivan,Kyung (January 23, 2023). "Arizona Democrat Ruben Gallego announces Senate bid in challenge to Kyrsten Sinema". CNN. Retrieved January 23, 2023.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link) - ^ "Democrats Are Ready to Call Kyrsten Sinema's Bluff". The Daily Beast. December 13, 2022.
- ^ Alexi McCammond; Eugene Scott (January 23, 2023). "Democrat Ruben Gallego challenging Kyrsten Sinema in 2024 Senate race". Axios.
- ^ "Greg Stanton said he will not run for Arizona's Senate seat in 2024. All eyes are now on Ruben Gallego and Kyrsten Sinema". Politico. January 19, 2023. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
- ^ "Journalist's Roundtable: Ruben Gallego runs for Senate". Arizona PBS. January 27, 2023.
- ^ Schnell, Mychael (April 6, 2023). "Rep. Dan Goldman endorses Gallego for Senate". KXAN. Retrieved April 6, 2023.
- ^ Bridget Bowman; Ben Kamisar; Alexandra Marquez (January 26, 2023). "Eyes on 2024: Mitch Daniels weighs life as a senator". Meet the Press Blog. NBC News. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ Daniela Altimari; Mary Ellen McIntire; Kate Ackley (February 2, 2023). "At the Races: Cash course". CQ Roll Call.
- ^ McIntire, Mary Ellen; Ackley, Kate; Altimari, Daniela; Lesniewski, Niels (March 2, 2023). "At the Races: Back to the future". Roll Call. Retrieved March 2, 2023.
- ^ Santaliz, Kate (June 27, 2023). "Ex-Speaker Pelosi to headline a fundraiser for Democrat seeking Sen. Sinema's seat". NBC News. Retrieved June 28, 2023.
- ^ a b Bernal, Rafael (May 9, 2023). "Hispanic Caucus campaign arm formally endorses Gallego for Senate". KGET-TV 12. Retrieved May 9, 2023.
- ^ Bender, Michael C. (February 3, 2023). "Kari Lake, Still Refusing to Accept Defeat in One Race, Teases Arizona Senate Run". The New York Times.
- ^ "CWA Arizona State Council Endorses Rep. Ruben Gallego for U.S. Senate". Communications Workers of America. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ "Teamsters Endorse Ruben Gallego in Arizona Senate Race". Yahoo Finance. PR Newswire. January 30, 2023. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
- ^ a b Gans, Jared (May 16, 2023). "Liberal group endorsing Gallego after backing Sinema". The Hill. Retrieved May 16, 2023.
- ^ "LCV Action Fund Endorses Ruben Gallego for Senate". League of Conservation Voters. Archived from the original on September 27, 2023. Retrieved September 27, 2023.
- ^ "AZ-Sen: "I'm one of the first members of Congress to endorse Ruben Gallego (D). Here's why."". Daily Kos. April 10, 2023. Retrieved April 22, 2023.
- ^ "Candidates". Serve America PAC.
- ^ "VoteVets PAC Endorses Gallego for Arizona Senate". March 27, 2023.
- ^ "We do not endorse mediocre Democrats". Climate Hawks Vote. Retrieved June 21, 2023.
- ^ a b Al Weaver (December 18, 2022). "Why the GOP has Ducey at the top of its Senate candidate wish list". The Hill.
Ducey last week told reporters in his home state that he is 'not running for the United States Senate.'
- ^ Kapur, Sahil (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's decision to quit the Democratic Party jolts Arizona 2024 Senate race". NBC News.
- ^ a b Otterbein, Holly; Everett, Burgess; Mutnick, Ally (February 1, 2023). "Arizona Republicans fear they may blow it again". Politico. Retrieved February 1, 2023.
- ^ Hansen, Ronald J. (April 11, 2023). "Pinal County Sheriff Mark Lamb enters US Senate race for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat". USA Today. The Arizona Republic. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- ^ Wong, Kenneth (April 11, 2023). "2024 Elections: Arizonans already declaring candidacies for House and Senate; here's what you should know". Fox 10. Retrieved April 30, 2023.
- ^ Gans, Jared (August 8, 2023). "Sinema independent bid could boost Democrats in Arizona Senate race: poll". The Hill. Retrieved August 8, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Liza (September 28, 2023). "Kari Lake to Announce Senate Run, Setting Up High-Stakes Arizona Race". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved September 28, 2023.
- ^ "FEC Form 2 for Report FEC-1724130". docquery.fec.gov. Retrieved September 2, 2023.
- ^ Cooper, Jonathan (April 11, 2023). "Sheriff Mark Lamb says he's running for US Senate in Arizona". The Seattle Times. Retrieved July 20, 2023.
- ^ Collins, Eliza (August 30, 2023). "Blake Masters Plans to Enter Race for Kyrsten Sinema's Senate Seat". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved August 30, 2023.
- ^ a b Duda, Jeremy (December 12, 2022). "Sinema's switch alters electoral math for GOP and Democrats in 2024". Axios.
- ^ "Which Republicans will run for Sen. Kyrsten Sinema's seat? What we know". The Arizona Republic. March 26, 2023.
- ^ Drucker, David (December 9, 2022). "Sinema's switch upends 2024 Arizona Senate race". The Washington Examiner.
- ^ "Republican Karrin Taylor Robson says she won't run for Sinema's Senate seat in Arizona". The Hill. May 25, 2023.
- ^ Roberts, Laurie (February 18, 2023). "Kari Lake is the GOP's nightmare Senate candidate, but really, who else is there?". The Arizona Republic.
- ^ First, Latinos for America. "Latinos for America First". Latinos for America First. Archived from the original on September 15, 2023. Retrieved September 15, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites