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2024 United States Senate election in Virginia

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For related races, see 2024 United States Senate elections.

2024 United States Senate election in Virginia
← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Tim Kaine (presumptive) TBD
Party Democratic Republican
Incumbent U.S. senator

Tim Kaine
Democratic



Elections in Virginia
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The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024.[1]

Background

Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]

Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]

This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Tim Kaine
U.S representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Labor unions

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Tim Kaine (D) $13,030,712 $6,794,892 $8,755,481
Source: Federal Election Commission[23]

Republican primary

Hung Cao, considered by some to be the frontrunner for the Republican nomination, has been embroiled in multiple controversies. Following the partial collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge after being struck by a container ship, Cao blamed Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg for the accident, claiming that Buttigieg "spends more time talking about racial equity with regard to highways and about climate change than about focusing on the fundamentals of keeping our country and our infrastructure working."[24] Later, Cao claimed that Monterey, California is "a very dark place now, a lot of witchcraft, and the Wiccan community has really taken over there," adding that "we can't let that happen in Virginia."[25]

In February 2023, Cao announced the formation of a PAC called Unleash America, with the PAC's goal being "to get Republicans elected" in the House of Delegates elections and State Senate elections in 2023. However, in April 2024, the Staunton-based publication The News Leader published an article claiming that none of the $103,489 raised by the PAC was spent on state house or state senate elections, but were instead spent on Cao's Senate bid.[26] Cao would respond by denouncing the article as a "hit job" by a "podunk local newspaper" that he claimed was run by "left-wing hacks."[27] In a virtual town hall hosted by the Fauquier County Republican Committee, Cao would also say that it would be "ridonkulous" and "crazy" for him to “drive six and a half hours down to Abingdon or something like that and to stand there with four other dudes and to have 30 seconds to answer questions." His comments have drawn backlash and accusations of being dismissive to rural portions of the commonwealth.[28]

Despite these controversies, Cao was endorsed by former president Donald Trump for the Republican nomination.[29]

Candidates

Declared

Endorsements

Hung Cao
U.S. Presidents
Individuals
Jonathan Emord
U.S. representatives
Scott Parkinson
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Individuals
Organizations
Chuck Smith
State legislators

Fundraising

Campaign finance reports as of March 31, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Hung Cao (R) $2,036,423 $1,557,642 $571,261
Jonathan Emord (R) $808,722[a] $776,557 $32,165
Eddie Garcia (R) $298,802 $281,916 $16,885
Scott Parkinson (R) $841,133 $469,182 $371,950
Chuck Smith (R) $509,949 $485,433 $24,516
Source: Federal Election Commission[23]

Results

Republican primary results[43]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Hung Cao
Republican Jonathan Emord
Republican Eddie Garcia
Republican Scott Parkinson
Republican Chuck Smith
Total votes 100.00%

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[44] Solid D November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[45] Likely D May 4, 2023
Inside Elections[46] Solid D November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[47] Safe D November 9, 2023
CNalysis[48] Solid D November 21, 2023

Polling

Tim Kaine vs. Hung Cao
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tim
Kaine (D) 		Hung
Cao (R) 		Other Undecided
Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[A] April 26–28, 2024 500 (RV) ± 4.4% 48% 36% 1% 16%
Hypothetical polling
Tim Kaine vs. Glenn Youngkin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		Tim
Kaine (D) 		Glenn
Youngkin (R) 		Other Undecided
Virginia Commonwealth University July 14–25, 2023 804 (A) ± 5.46% 47% 42% 3%[c] 7%
University of Mary Washington September 6–12, 2022 1,000 (A) ± 3.1% 41% 39% 10%[d] 10%

Results

United States Senate election in Virginia, 2024
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Tim Kaine (incumbent)
Republican TBD
Total votes 100.00%

Notes

  1. ^ $528,167 of this total was self-funded by Emord
  2. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ None/Would not vote with 2%, other with 1%
  4. ^ None/Would not vote with 5%, other with 5%
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Virginians Against Neighborhood Slot Machines

References

  1. ^ "2024 State Primary Election Dates". www.ncsl.org. Retrieved May 13, 2023.
  2. ^ "Live election results: 2020 Virginia results". www.politico.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  3. ^ Oliver, Ned (March 3, 2021). "Democrats have controlled Virginia government for two years. Here's what they've done". Virginia Mercury. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  4. ^ "GOP sweeps statewide races with 2 down-ballot wins". AP NEWS. November 2, 2021. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  5. ^ "Virginia Elections Database » 2012 U.S. Senate General Election". Virginia Elections Database. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  6. ^ "Virginia | Full Senate results". www.cnn.com. Retrieved April 20, 2023.
  7. ^ a b Flynn, Meagan; Vozzella, Laura (January 20, 2023). "Va. Sen. Tim Kaine says he will seek another term". The Washington Post. Retrieved January 20, 2023.
  8. ^ a b "GIFFORDS PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine for Reelection". Giffords. February 22, 2024. Retrieved February 26, 2024.
  9. ^ a b "NextGen PAC Endorses Senator Tim Kaine Ahead of 2024 Elections". NextGen America PAC. May 10, 2023. Retrieved May 10, 2023.
  10. ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved February 9, 2024.
  11. ^ "Presenting the official Spring 2024 Harvard Dems Endorsement Results! Congratulations to all who were endorsed! 🫶🏻✨". www.instagram.com. Retrieved February 8, 2024.
  12. ^ "2024 Endorsements". 2024 Endorsements. Retrieved March 25, 2024.
  13. ^ "Jewish Dems: President Biden Stands with Israel". Jewish Democratic Council of America. Retrieved May 10, 2024.
  14. ^ "Meet JAC's 2024 Candidates | Joint Action Committee for Political Affairs". jacpac.org. Archived from the original on September 1, 2023. Retrieved September 1, 2023.
  15. ^ "Tim Kaine". JStreetPAC. October 16, 2023. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  16. ^ "LCV Action Fund Announces First Round of Congressional Endorsements". League of Conservation Voters. Retrieved July 27, 2023.
  17. ^ "2024 Endorsed Candidates". LGBT+ Democrats of Virginia. Retrieved May 6, 2024.
  18. ^ NCPSSM. "National Seniors' Advocacy Group Endorses Sen. Tim Kaine for Re-Election". NCPSSM. Retrieved January 5, 2024.
  19. ^ Dison, Denis (September 20, 2023). "NRDC Action Fund Endorses 51 House, Senate Incumbents". NRDC Action Fund. Retrieved September 20, 2023.
  20. ^ "2024 Endorsements". Population Connection Action Fund. Retrieved August 25, 2023.
  21. ^ "2024 Endorsements | Sierra Club Independent Action". www.sierraclubindependentaction.org. Retrieved January 14, 2024.
  22. ^ "Virginia - COMPAC Endorsements". United Mine Workers of America. Retrieved April 2, 2024.
  23. ^ a b "2024 Election United States Senate - Virginia". fec.gov. Federal Election Commission. Retrieved August 11, 2023.
  24. ^ Valentine, Jesse (March 29, 2024). "GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao blames racial equity for Baltimore bridge tragedy". American Journal News. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  25. ^ Metzger, Bryan. "GOP Senate candidate Hung Cao warns of 'witchcraft' happening in California: 'We can't let that happen in Virginia'". Business Insider. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  26. ^ Beyer, Elizabeth (April 15, 2024). "Unleash America was supposed to be about supporting Va. candidates. But the money didn't go there". NewsLeader.com. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  27. ^ Beyer, Elizabeth (May 9, 2024). "Candidate for U.S. Senate in Virginia responds to super PAC allegations, misuse of funds". NewsLeader.com. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  28. ^ Schmidt, Markus (May 23, 2024). "GOP U.S. Senate candidate from NoVa doubles down on 'podunk' comments, says driving to Abingdon for debate is 'just ridonkulous'". CardinalNews.org. Retrieved May 28, 2024.
  29. ^ a b Iannelli, Nick (May 27, 2024). "Republican US Senate candidate in Virginia 'honored' to receive Trump endorsement". WTOP. Retrieved May 27, 2024.
  30. ^ Minock, Nick (July 18, 2023). "Hung Cao launches website and files paperwork to run for 2024 US Senate race in Virginia". WJLA.com.
  31. ^ Churchill, Victoria (January 31, 2023). "Constitutional Litigator Jonathan Emord Announces U.S. Senate Run". The Republican Standard. Retrieved January 31, 2023.
  32. ^ Rankin, Sarah (January 20, 2023). "Democratic Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia to seek reelection". AP News. Archived from the original on January 20, 2023. Retrieved April 21, 2023.
  33. ^ Rankin, Sarah (April 3, 2023). "Scott Parkinson runs for Tim Kaine's seat". The Virginia Pilot. Archived from the original on April 3, 2023.
  34. ^ Martz, Michael (August 5, 2023). "Meet the 8 Republicans (and counting) who want to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". Richmond Times-Dispatch. Retrieved August 26, 2023.
  35. ^ "A true patriot's endosement". PoliticalEmails. Archived from the original on February 23, 2024. Retrieved February 22, 2024.
  36. ^ a b "U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE JONATHAN EMORD RECEIVES THE ENDORSEMENTS OF RON PAUL AND BARRY GOLDWATER, JR". FOX 59. March 14, 2023. Retrieved March 15, 2023.
  37. ^ a b c d e f g h i Johnson, Julia (May 2023). "Tim Kaine GOP challenger holds fundraiser with Trump and DeSantis supporters alike". Washington Examiner. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  38. ^ a b c d e f Hazard, Charlotte. "Ex-DeSantis Hill staffer runs for U.S. Senate, says pandemic was his call for change". Just the News. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  39. ^ a b Shipley, Jonathan (May 31, 2023). "Former Baraboo resident eyes Virginia Senate". News Republic. Retrieved January 13, 2024.
  40. ^ Martz, Michael (February 2, 2024). "Here's how much money Sen. Tim Kaine has raised in bid for new term". Richmond Times Dispatch. Retrieved April 21, 2024.
  41. ^ a b "David N. Bossie and Citizens United Political Victory Fund Endorse Scott Parkinson for U.S. Senate from Virginia". cupvf.com. April 24, 2023. Retrieved May 1, 2023.
  42. ^ Cantor, Dave (March 20, 2024). "These are the GOP candidates hoping to unseat Sen. Tim Kaine". VPM. Retrieved May 5, 2024.
  43. ^ "Candidates & Referendums June 18, 2024 Primary Elections". elections.Virginia.Gov. April 15, 2024.
  44. ^ "2024 Senate Race ratings". Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 25, 2023.
  45. ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. August 1, 2023. Retrieved August 2, 2023.
  46. ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
  47. ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
  48. ^ "'24 Senate Forecast". CNalysis. Retrieved November 21, 2023.
Official campaign websites
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