2007 Kenyan presidential election
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A presidential election was held as part of the Kenyan general election on December 27 2007; parliamentary elections were held on the same date.[1] Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki was declared the winner and sworn in on December 30, despite opposition leader Raila Odinga's claims of victory and allegations of fraud which have led to violent protests.[2][3][4]
The election was strongly marked by tribalism, with Kibaki a member of the traditionally dominant Kikuyu ethnic group and Odinga a member of the Luo ethnic group. Following the announcement of Kibaki's victory, severe tribally-based rioting occured.[5]
Presidential candidates
Mwai Kibaki, the incumbent president, sought a second term as the candidate of the Party of National Unity. His main challengers were Raila Odinga of Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) and Kalonzo Musyoka of ODM-Kenya.[6]
Kenneth Matiba of Saba Saba Asili joined the race after a 10-year political hiatus. Other candidates were Joseph Ngacha Karani(Kenya Patriotic Trust), Nixon Jeremiah Kukubo (Republican Party of Kenya), Pius Muiru (Kenya Peoples’ Party), David Waweru Ng’ethe (Chama Cha Umma) and Nazlin Omar (Workers Congress Party).[6]
Timeline and preparations
Incumbent president Mwai Kibaki declared on January 26, 2007 his intentions of running for re-election.[7] At the time ODM-Kenya coalition was expected to field the strongest challenger for Kibaki. The main parties affiliated to ODM-Kenya were LDP and KANU.[8] At the 2002 elections LDP was part of the NARC movement backing Kibaki, but were dismissed from the cabinet after 2005 constitutional referendum.[9] KANU, on the other hand is a former ruling party, but the former president Daniel Arap Moi was among its faction opposing it involvement with the ODM-Kenya coalition.[10] KANU and LDP had originally teamed up for the 2005 referendum, under the banner Orange Democratic Movement.[11]
ODM-Kenya split in two in August 2007, with one faction (ODM-Kenya) led by Kalonzo Musyoka, while others joined the original ODM. KANU left the coalition. Former president Daniel Arap Moi announced his support for the re-election of Kibaki, his former political enemy, in late August,[12] and Uhuru Kenyatta followed the suit and announced his support for Kibaki in mid-September. Kenyatta had earlier vied for presidential candidacy on ODM ticket before he and his party KANU had ditched the coalition. KANU will field its own parliamentary candidates.[13]
Several ODM members vied for presidency, including Kalonzo Musyoka, Raila Odinga, Uhuru Kenyatta, William Ruto, Najib Balala, Musalia Mudavadi and Joseph Nyagah.[14] Following the August 2007 split, the ODM-K elected Musyoka as its candidate on August 31[15][16] and the ODM elected Odinga as its candidate on September 1.[17]
On September 16 2007, Kibaki announced that he would stand as the candidate of a new alliance called the Party of National Unity, which will include a number of parties, including KANU,[18][19] DP, Narc-Kenya, Ford-Kenya, Ford People, and Shirikisho among others.[19] He began his presidential campaign on September 30 at Nyayo Stadium in Nairobi.[20]
Odinga launched his campaign in Uhuru Park on October 6.[21][22] On the same day, three ODM supporters were shot (one of them fatally), allegedly by bodyguards of Stanley Livondo, who is running as the PNU candidate for Odinga's seat in parliament. Livondo was arrested, along with two of his bodyguards and released later.[22]
In October, Odinga has held the lead in opinion polls. Two cabinet ministers, first Health Minister Charity Ngilu and then Regional Cooperation Minister John Koech, backed Odinga in October; Kibaki dismissed Ngilu from the cabinet.[23]
Pius Muiru, a bishop and the leader of Kenya Peoples Party (KPP) official launched his bid for presidency on October 21, 2007 at Kamukunji grounds.[24]
Parliament was dissolved on Monday October 22nd, paving way for the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) to announce the election date.[25] The date, was officially announced on October 26, 2007 by the ECK, stating the elections will be held on Thursday December 27, 2007.[26]
Opinion polls in late October put Odinga at 50% support, Kibaki at 39%, and Musyoka taking 8%.[27] The poll released in early November put Odinga at 45%, Kibaki at 41% and Musyoka at 11%, while on November 23 a poll placed Odinga and Kibaki at about the same level, with 43.6% and 43.3% support respectively.[28]
Presidential candidates presented their nomination papers on the November 14th and 15th to the ECK and 9 candidates were cleared to be on the ballot in December.[6]
Campaign issues
Some of the issues of the election being discussed by the 3 candidates are:
- Economy
- Infrastructure
- Corruption
- Majimbo/Ugatuzi (federalism & devolution)
- Free High school Education
- Universal Health care
- Constitution (Odinga has promised a new constitution within six months of taking office[29])
Opinion polls
National polls
| Poll date | Kibaki | Musyoka | Odinga | Mudavadi | Ruto | Kenyatta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 2006 [30] | 41% | 20% | 13% | 3% | 5% | |
| December 2006 [31] | 42% | 20% | 14% | 3% | 5% | |
| March 2007 [32] | 51% | 14% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| April 2007 [33] | 44.3% | 15.3% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| June 2007 [34] | 45% | 14% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| July 2007 [35] | 45% | 11% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| August 2007 [36] | 42% | 11% | 25% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| August 2007 [37] | 47% | 13% | 36% | 1% | 1% | |
| September 2007 [38] | 38% | 8% | 47% | |||
| October 13th 2007 [39] | 37% | 8% | 53% | |||
| October 23rd 2007 [40] | 39% | 8% | 50% | |||
| November 9, 2007 [41] | 41% | 11% | 45% | |||
| November 21, 2007 [42] | 41.4% | 14.7% | 40.7% | |||
| November 17, 2007 [43] | 42% | 11% | 45% | |||
| November 23, 2007 [44] | 43.3% | 11.4% | 43.6% | |||
| December 7, 2007 [45] | 42% | 10% | 46% | |||
| December 18, 2007 [46] | 43% | 10% | 45% |
The June 2007 poll also featured a section on a head-to-head poll with Kibaki against each of the ODM candidates. Both Kalonzo and Raila scored 45%, indicating a dead-tie with Kibaki. The rest of the candidates scored as follows against Kibaki: Najib Balala: 43%, William Ruto: 39%, Uhuru Kenyatta: 38%.[34]
Regional polls
September 23, 2007 [47]
| Province | Kibaki | Raila | Musyoka | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nairobi | 40% | 44% | 10% | 5% |
September 29, 2007 [48]
| Province | Kibaki | Raila | Musyoka | Undecided | RTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 79% | 12% | 1% | 4% | -- |
| Coast | 36% | 48% | 6% | 8% | -- |
| Eastern | 49% | 34% | 6% | 3% | -- |
| Nairobi | 37% | 51% | 5% | 4% | -- |
| North Eastern | 27% | 70% | 3% | 0% | -- |
| Nyanza | 8% | 85% | 0% | 2% | -- |
| Rift Valley | 35% | 53% | 3% | 8% | -- |
| Western | 25% | 65% | 4% | 3% | -- |
| # of Wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
October 23, 2007 [49]
| Province | Kibaki | Raila | Musyoka | Undecided | RTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 89% | 5% | 2% | -- | -- |
| Coast | 36% | 49% | 10% | -- | -- |
| Eastern | 55% | 8% | 36% | -- | -- |
| Nairobi | 43% | 46% | 8% | -- | -- |
| North Eastern | 20% | 77% | 1% | -- | -- |
| Nyanza | 17% | 82% | 0% | -- | -- |
| Rift Valley | 29% | 65% | 4% | -- | -- |
| Western | 29% | 61% | 3% | -- | -- |
| # of Wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
November 23, 2007
| Province | Kibaki | Raila | Kalonzo | Undecided | RTA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 92.8% | 5.0% | 2.0% | -- | -- |
| Coast | 34.7% | 51.5% | 9.7% | -- | -- |
| Eastern | 48.9% | 6.1% | 43.8% | -- | -- |
| Nairobi | 46.3% | 39.3% | 12.1% | -- | -- |
| North Eastern | 32.2% | 64.4% | 3.4% | -- | -- |
| Nyanza | 11.9% | 85.3% | 1.8% | -- | -- |
| Rift Valley | 39.3% | 55.8% | 3.9% | -- | -- |
| Western | 20.7% | 72.8% | 1.4% | -- | -- |
| # of wins | 3 | 5 | 0 |
December 7, 2007 [50]
| Province | Kibaki | Raila | Kalonzo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 91% | 8% | -- |
| Coast | 35% | 63% | 10% |
| Eastern | 46% | 6% | 44% |
| Nairobi | 41% | 47% | -- |
| North Eastern | 27% | 65% | -- |
| Nyanza | 19% | 78% | -- |
| Rift Valley | 36% | 61% | -- |
| Western | 21% | 69% | -- |
| # of wins | 2 | 6 | 0 |
Presidential election results
An exit poll conducted from 310 polling stations in 139 constituencies (out of 210) show Kibaki getting 50.3% of the votes compared to 40.6% by Raila Odinga.[51] On the other hand, early results by Kenyan media gave Raila Odinga a narrow lead.[52]
Odinga held a strong lead in vote counting on December 28,[5] and the ODM declared victory for Odinga on December 29;[53] however, as more results were announced on the same day, the gap between the two candidates narrowed.[5][53] Odinga accused the government of fraud, urged Kibaki to concede defeat, and called for a recount.[3] The Electoral Commission declared Kibaki the winner on December 30, placing him ahead of Odinga by about 232,000 votes.[4][54] According to the opposition, at least 300,000 votes for Kibaki were falsely included in his total. The Chairman of the Electoral Commission, Samuel Kivuitu, said that it could not address the ODM's objections and that they were a matter for the courts.[4] Following the Commission's declaration of his victory, Kibaki was sworn in for his second term later on the same day,[4][54] calling for the "verdict of the people" to be respected and for "healing and reconciliation" to begin.[54]
Kivuitu said that there were some problems in the vote counting, noting that in one constituency the voter turnout figures would mean a turnout rate of 115%.[3] According to the European Union's head observer in the election, Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, the election was "flawed"[5] and the Electoral Commission failed to establish "the credibility of the tallying process to the satisfaction of all parties and candidates."[3] The United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary, David Miliband, said that his country had "real concerns" about the election, while the United States officially congratulated Kibaki and called for the results to be respected,[55] but also expressed concern.[56]
Within minutes of the Commission's declaration of Kibaki's victory, tribally-based rioting and violence, primarily directed by Luos against Kikuyus, broke out across Kenya,[5] particularly in Odinga's Kibera stronghold, and the government suspended live television coverage.[5][55][57][58] Odinga alleged that "a clique of people around Kibaki" sought to rig the election, but said that democracy "is unstoppable like the flow of the Nile". The ODM announced its intention to hold a ceremony on December 31 in which Odinga would be declared the "people's president", but police said that this could incite violence and that Odinga could be arrested if the ceremony occurred.[55] Odinga then delayed this, but called for a million-strong rally on January 3 2008.[59]
Final results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
| PNU | Mwai Kibaki | 4,584,721 | 46.640 | |
| ODM | Raila Odinga | 4,352,993 | 44.282 | |
| ODM-K | Kalonzo Musyoka | 879,903 | 8.951 | |
| KPTP | Joseph Karani | 4,791 | 0.049 | |
| KPP | Pius Mwangi | 1,942 | 0.020 | |
| SSA | Kenneth Matiba | 1,739 | 0.018 | |
| WCPK | Nazlin Rajput | 1,639 | 0.017 | |
| CCUP | David Ngethe | 1,208 | 0.012 | |
| RPK | Nixon Kukubo | 1,151 | 0.012 | |
Provincial results
The official results page from the Electoral commission of Kenya. As do the Registered Voters per Constituency number of registered votes.
| Province | Kibaki | % | Odinga | % | Musyoka | % | Karani | % | Mwangi | % | Matiba | % | Ngethe | % | Rajput | % | Kukubo | % | Registered | Turnout | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 511,378 | 97.2 | 9,913 | 1.9 | 3,178 | 0.6 | 1,291 | 0.3 | 243 | 0.05 | 123 | 0.02 | 87 | 0.02 | 69 | 0.01 | 65 | 0.01 | 2,017,073 | 526,347 | 26.1 |
| Coast | 40,340 | 40.7 | 49,910 | 50.3 | 7,960 | 8 | 359 | 0.4 | 199 | 0.2 | 148 | 0.2 | 54 | 0.06 | 107 | 0.1 | 85 | 0.09 | 1,083,873 | 99,162 | 9.2 |
| Eastern | 17,406 | 16.9 | 8,911 | 8.6 | 76,066 | 73.7 | 112 | 0.1 | 80 | 0.08 | 55 | 0.05 | 14 | 0.01 | 562 | 0.5 | 72 | 0.07 | 2,190,090 | 103,278 | 4.7 |
| Nairobi | 35,182 | 41.1 | 45,216 | 52.3 | 5,025 | 5.9 | 73 | 0.09 | 65 | 0.08 | 25 | 0.03 | 18 | 0.02 | 48 | 0.07 | 12 | 0.01 | 1,161,708 | 85,664 | 7.4 |
| North Eastern | 26,962 | 47.7 | 28,184 | 50 | 1,268 | 2.2 | 46 | 0.08 | 18 | 0.03 | 15 | 0.03 | 12 | 0.02 | 11 | 0.02 | 20 | 0.04 | 265,830 | 56,536 | 26.3 |
| Nyanza | 30,873 | 5.6 | 519,403 | 94.2 | 655 | 0.1 | 395 | 0.07 | 108 | 0.02 | 108 | 0.02 | 175 | 0.03 | 165 | 0.03 | 49 | 0.01 | 1,835,248 | 551,931 | 30.1 |
| Rift Valley | 426,548 | 33.8 | 816,009 | 64.7 | 11,640 | 0.9 | 2,244 | 0.2 | 1,089 | 0.1 | 1,142 | 0.1 | 763 | 0.06 | 625 | 0.05 | 742 | 0.06 | 3,055,694 | 1,260,802 | 41.3 |
| Western | 34,235 | 37.1 | 56,747 | 61.5 | 509 | 0.6 | 271 | 0.3 | 140 | 0.2 | 123 | 0.1 | 85 | 0.09 | 52 | 0.06 | 106 | 0.1 | 1,434,102 | 92,268 | 6.4 |
NB - In addition to receiving the largest number of votes in absolute terms, a successful presidential candidate must also win 25% or more of the vote in at least five of Kenya's eight provinces to avoid a runoff.
Aftermath
Riots erupted in Kenya after Mwai Kibaki was declared re-elected as the country's president in a disputed Kenyan presidential election, 2007 election. Opposition supporters, angered by the announcement of President Kibaki's re-election, went on rampage across the nation by burning shacks and shops.[60]
A BBC reporter saw 43 bodies with gunshot wounds in a mortuary in the opposition stronghold of Kisumu. A witness said police shot protesters. There have been running battles in Nairobi slums. The local KTN television station says 124 have died nationwide.[61][62]
Police said that 40 people were killed in Nairobi and 53 in Kisumu, the country's third city and a bastion of defeated opposition challenger Raila Odinga. Four bodies were discovered in the capital's Mathare slum, seven were killed in Nakuru, provincial capital of the Rift Valley. Further clashes between rival supporters in a village near Kapsabet also left four dead, police said.[63]
See also
References
- ^ ECK sets poll date as Raila maintains lead The Standard, October 26, 2007
- ^ "Dozens dead in Kenya poll clashes", BBC news(BBC), December 31, 2007.
- ^ a b c d "Protests as Kenya's president begins 2nd term after allegations of rigging, deadly violence", Associated Press (International Herald Tribune), December 31, 2007.
- ^ a b c d "Kenya: Kibaki sworn in as he is declared winner of Kenyan presidential race", Panapress (afriquenligne.fr), December 30, 2007.
- ^ a b c d e f Jeffrey Gettleman, "Tribal Rivalry Boils Over After Kenyan Election", The New York Times, December 31, 2007.
- ^ a b c Nine to fight it out as Kibaki clearedThe Standard, November 16, 2007 Cite error: The named reference "cleared" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
- ^ Kibaki declares he is ready for a second presidential term The Standard
- ^ ODM’s long and bumpy journey The Standard, October 7, 2007
- ^ Raila to President: Spare me the blame, I was in your Cabinet for only three years Daily Nation, October 20, 2007
- ^ No Let-Up in Kanu Row Over ODM Daily Nation, November 17, 2006
- ^ Q&A: Kenya political crisis BBC News, December 8, 2007
- ^ "Moi throws weight behind Kibaki", BBC News, August 28, 2007.
- ^ "Ex-rival backs Kibaki re-election", BBC News, September 14, 2007.
- ^ "It’s make or break as ODM leaders start forum to decide on candidate", Daily Nation, January 11, 2007.
- ^ Malcolm Webb, "Kenya's Opposition Chooses Presidential Candidate", VOA News, August 31, 2007.
- ^ Eric Shimoli and Dave Opiyo, "Kenya: Kalonzo Picked to Hoist ODM-K Flag", The Nation (allAfrica.com), September 1, 2007.
- ^ "Kenya: It's Raila for President", East Africa Standard (allAfrica.com), September 1, 2007.
- ^ "Kenyan president announces new party affiliation for re-election bid", Associated Press (International Herald Tribune), September 16, 2007.
- ^ a b "Kenya president eyes re-election", BBC News, September 16, 2007.
- ^ "Kibaki: I deserve another term", AFP (News24.com), September 30, 2007.
- ^ Anthony Kaikai, "ODM party launches its Presidential campaigns", Kenya Broadcasting Corporation, October 6, 2007.
- ^ a b "Kenya opposition kicks off campaign, says 3 supporters shot", Associated Press (International Herald Tribune), October 6, 2007.
- ^ "Kenyan presidential hopeful gains favour", AFP (IOL), October 12, 2007.
- ^ http://eastandard.net/news/?id=1143976339 Bishop tells voters to send off Kibaki and his team] The Standard, October 22, 2007
- ^ Martin Mutua and Edith Fortunate, "Curtain falls on Ninth Parliament", The Standard, October 23, 2007.
- ^ Kenya Elections set for Dec 27 Nationmedia.com, October 26, 2007
- ^ "Kenya: Could the president be ousted?", The Economist, 1 November 2007
- ^ "Kibaki neck-and-neck with challenger", Reuters (IOL), November 23, 2007.
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7092398.stm
- ^ Survey shows Kibaki’s popularity on the rise The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Kibaki leads again in poll The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila finally Hummers Kalonzo The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ It’s Kibaki-Raila battle The Standard (Poll by International Republican Institute)
- ^ a b Why Kibaki will win polls The Standard (Poll by Research and Marketing Services (RMS))
- ^ Kalonzo drops, Raila shoots up, Kibaki holds on The Standard (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila preferred ODM flagbearer, poll shows The Standard, August 8, 2007 (Poll by Infotrak Research and Consulting and Harris Interactive Global)
- ^ Kibaki, Raila ahead of pack in new opinion poll The Standard, August 30, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila tops table The Daily Nation, September 29, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila widens gap The Standard Online Edition, October 13, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila’s third win The Standard Online Edition, October 23rd, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila drops in new ratings Daily Nation, November 9, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Latest surveys forecast tight race for State House Daily Nation (Poll by Consumer Insight), November 17, 2007
- ^ New poll predicts close race Daily Nation (Poll by Gallup), November 21, 2007
- ^ Raila, Kibaki in nip and tuck race Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), November 23, 2007
- ^ Raila maintains lead in latest poll Capital FM (Poll by Steadman International), December 7, 2007
- ^ Last poll, last push The Standard (Poll by Steadman International), December 18, 2007
- ^ Raila leads Kibaki in city poll The Standard, September 26, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila leads, Kibaki drops The Standard, September 29, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Raila tops yet again in latest opinion poll ratings with lead in six provinces Daily Nation, October 27, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ Steadman poll puts Raila ahead The Standard, December 7, 2007 (Poll by Steadman International)
- ^ http://www.iedafrica.org/exitpolls.asp
- ^ Reuters, December 28, 2007: [1] Early results show Kibaki trailing in Kenya vote
- ^ a b "Kenya opposition declares victory", AFP (IOL), December 29, 2007.
- ^ a b c "Kibaki named victor in Kenya vote", BBC News, December 20, 2007.
- ^ a b c "Odinga rejects Kenya poll result", BBC News, December 31, 2007.
- ^ Mike Pflanz, "Kenya election riots leave more than 120 dead", Telegraph.co.uk, December 31, 2007.
- ^ The Nation, "Kenya: Violence Erupts After Kibaki Sworn in", The Nation (allafrica.com), December 30, 2007.
- ^ The Nation, "Kenya: Death and Chaos After Kibaki Win", The Nation (allafrica.com), December 31, 2007.
- ^ "Kenya: Police Claim Shoot To Kill Orders", Associated Press (CBS News), December 31, 2007.
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7165602.stm
- ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/africa/7165602.stm
- ^ http://allafrica.com/stories/200712310456.html
- ^ http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/E952236D-EA1E-47D0-9BB6-0012EC14AAC8.htm
External links
- Electoral Commission of Kenya
- Electionkenya.com
- Daily Nation - Kenya Elections 2007
- The Standard - Election Platform
- Nationmedia.com-Elections 2007
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