2016 National Assembly for Wales election

National Assembly for Wales election, 2016

5 May 2016
All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales 31 seats needed for a majority
First party Second party Third party   Leader Carwyn Jones Andrew R. T. Davies Leanne Wood Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru Leader's seat Bridgend South Wales Central South Wales Central Last election 30 seats, 42.3% 14 seats, 25.0% 11 seats, 19.3%
First Minister before election Carwyn Jones Labour Elected First Minister TBD TBD

The National Assembly for Wales election 2016 is the next election for the National Assembly. The poll will be held on Thursday, 5 May 2016 and will decide the incumbency for all the assembly's seats. It will be the fifth election for seats in the National Assembly for Wales (previous elections having been held in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011), and the third election taken under the rules of the Government of Wales Act 2006.

The previous election resulted in gains for the then incumbent Welsh Labour Party, which gained four seats compared to the previous election and currently holds 30 seats, exactly half of the Assembly, one short of an overall majority. The party also secured a swing in its favour of over 10 percentage points. The Welsh Conservatives are currently the largest opposition party with 14 seats, a net gain of two from 2007, but former party leader Nick Bourne lost his seat. The junior party in the government coalition, the nationalist Plaid Cymru, suffered a drop in its vote and lost 4 seats. The Welsh Liberal Democrats lost significantly in the popular vote and returned five AMs, a loss of one.)

British, Irish, Commonwealth and European Union citizens living in Wales aged eighteen or over on election day will be entitled to vote. It will be held on the same day as elections for Northern Ireland's 26 local councils, the Scottish Parliament and Northern Irish Assembly elections and a number of local elections in England. This election and elections to the other devolved chambers have been delayed by a year from 2015 to 2016. This is a result of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011, which ensured that the Next United Kingdom general election will take place on 7 May 2015.

Electoral method

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote may be used to vote for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote may be used to vote for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

Opinion polls

Constituency Vote (FPTP)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Cons	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dem	UKIP	<span	style="color:White;">Others]]	Lead
18–22 July 2013	YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog	1,012	47%	19%	17%	8%	6%	3%	28%
28 Feb 2013	Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,007	46%	21%	17%	10%	5%	2%	25%
5 May 2011	National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (constituency)	949,252	42.3%	25.0%	19.3%	10.6%	N/A	2.8%	17.3%

Regional Vote (AMS)

Date(s) conducted	Polling organisation/client	Sample size	Lab	Cons	Plaid Cymru	Lib Dem	UKIP	<span	style="color:White;">Others]]	Lead
18–22 July 2013	YouGov/Elections in Wales Blog	1,012	25%	12%	23%	9%	16%	14%	2%
28 Feb 2013	Ynys Môn by-election, 2013
18-20 Feb 2013	YouGov/ITV Wales	1,007	26%	14%	26%	8%	13%	13%	Tie
5 May 2011	National Assembly for Wales election, 2011 (regional)	949,388	36.9%	22.5%	17.9%	8.0%	4.6%	10.1%	14.4%

See also

• Scottish Parliament general election, 2016
• Northern Ireland Assembly election, 2016
• London mayoral election, 2016
• Opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
• Ynys Môn by-election, 2013

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