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Mars One

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This article is about the one-way manned trip to Mars planned for 2024. For the first Soviet spacecraft for Mars, see Mars 1. For other uses, see Mars 1 (disambiguation).
"MarsOne" redirects here. Not to be confused with Marsone.
Mars One
Program overview
CountryNetherlands
OrganizationMars One and Interplanetary Media Group
StatusActive
Program history
Duration2010 – present
First flightJanuary 2018 (planned)
First crewed flightApril 2024 (planned)
Vehicle information
Vehicle typeTBA
Crewed vehicle(s)TBA
Crew capacityTBA
Launch vehicle(s)TBA

Mars One is a widely criticized[1][2][3][4] not-for-profit organization based in the Netherlands that has put forward plans to land the first humans onto Mars and establish a permanent human colony there by 2025.[5] The private spaceflight project is led by Dutch entrepreneur Bas Lansdorp, who announced plans for the Mars One project in May 2012.[6] The Mars One organization is the controlling stockholder of the for-profit Interplanetary Media Group.

Mars One's original concept included launching a robotic lander and orbiter as early as 2016 to be followed by a human crew of four in 2022. Organizers plan for the crew to be selected from applicants who paid an administrative fee, to become the first permanent residents of Mars with no plan of returning to Earth. Partial funding options include a proposed reality television program documenting the journey. In February 2015, the primary contractors on the robotic missions confirmed that work had ended on those missions with the completion of contracts on initial studies.[7]

The project's schedule, technical and financial feasibility as well as ethics have been criticized by scientists, engineers and those in the aerospace industry.

History

File:Bas Lansdorp.jpg
Bas Lansdorp, founder of Mars One

Planning for Mars One began in 2011 with discussions between the two founders, Bas Lansdorp and Arno Wielders. The feasibility of the idea was then researched with specialists and expert organizations, which discussed its financial, psychological and ethical aspects.[8]

The Mars One project has no connection with Inspiration Mars, a similarly-timed project to send a married couple on a Mars flyby and return them to Earth over a period of 500 days.[9]

Initial mission plan status

Mars One publicly announced plans in May 2012 for a one-way trip to Mars, with plans for an initial robotic precursor mission in 2016 and transporting the first human colonists to Mars in 2023.[10]

Initial plan Modified plan[11] Milestone Latest status
2013 2015 Candidate pool reduced to 40 astronauts,[12] replica of the settlement built for training purposes.[13] Candidate pool reduced to 100[3]
2014 2018 The first communication satellite constructed. Work stopped[4]
2014 2020 An exploration vehicle would launch to select the location of the settlement.[13] Work stopped[5]
2016 2022 A supply mission would launch with 2500 kilograms of food in a modified SpaceX Dragon. Not yet contracted[6]
2021 2023 Six additional Dragon capsules and another rover would launch with two living units, two life-support units and two supply units. Not yet contracted[7]
2022 2024 A SpaceX Falcon Heavy would launch with the first group of four colonists.[13]
2023 2025 The first colonists were to arrive on Mars in a modified Dragon capsule.
2025 2026 A second group of four colonists slated to arrive.[13]
2033 2035 The colony projected to reach 20 settlers.[14]

Notes:

1 [15]
2,3.^ Work on robotic missions was stopped with only initial studies being completed in February 2015.[7]
4,5.^ SpaceX has no contracts with MarsOne and the project does not appear on their launch manifest.[16]

Recent history

In December 2013, Mars One announced plans for a robotic precursor mission in 2018, two years later than had been conceptually planned in the 2012 announcements. The robotic lander is to be "built by Lockheed Martin based on the design used for NASA’s Phoenix and InSight missions, as well as a communications orbiter built by Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd."[17] In February 2015, Lockheed Martin and Surrey Satellite Technology confirmed that contracts on the initial study phase begun in late 2013 had run out and additional contracts had not been received for further progress on the robotic missions. Plans have not been disclosed to raise the US$200 million or more needed to support the robotic mission.[7][17]

Mars One selected a second-round pool of astronaut candidates in 2013 of 1058 people—"586 men and 472 women from 107 countries"—from a larger number of some 200,000 who showed interest on the Mars One website.

Mars One announced a partnership with Uwingu on 3 March 2014, stating that the program would use Uwingu's map of Mars in all of their planned missions.[18][19] Kristian von Bengtson began work on Simulation Mars Home for crew on 24 March 2014.

The second-round pool was whittled down to 705 candidates (418 men and 287 women) in the beginning of May 2014. 353 were removed either for medical reasons or due to personal considerations.[20] These selected persons will then begin the interview process following which several teams of two men and two women will be compiled. The teams will then begin training full-time for a future mission to Mars, while individuals and teams may be selected out during training if they are not deemed suitable for the mission.[20]

On June 2, 2014, Darlow Smithson Productions (DSP) announced it has gained exclusive access to the Mars One.[21]

On June 30, 2014, it was made public that Mars One seeks financial investment through a bidding process to send company experiments to Mars. The experiment slots will go to the highest bidder and will include company related ads, and the opportunity to have the company name on the robotic lander that's scheduled to carry the experiments to Mars in 2018.[22]

Mars One selected a third-round pool of astronaut candidates in 2015 of 100 people — "50 men and 50 women who successfully passed the second round. The candidates come from all around the world, namely 39 from the Americas, 31 from Europe, 16 from Asia, 7 from Africa, and 7 from Oceania".

Mission plans

According to their April 2013 schedule, the first crew of four astronauts would arrive on Mars in 2025, after a seven-month journey from Earth. Additional teams would join the settlement every two years, with the intention that by 2033 there would be over twenty people living and working on Mars.[citation needed] The astronaut selection process began on 22 April 2013.[23]

As of April 2013, the astronaut selection process was expected by Mars One to be completed in July 2015; six teams of four.[23]

2018 unmanned lander mission

Artist's impression of the Phoenix spacecraft as it lands on Mars.

In December 2013, mission concept studies for an unmanned Mars mission were contracted with Lockheed Martin and Surrey Satellite Technology for a demonstration mission to be launched in 2017 and land on Mars in 2018. It would be based on the design of the successful 2007 NASA Phoenix lander,[24] and provide proof of concept for a subset of the key technologies for a later permanent human settlement on Mars.[25] Upon submission of Lockheed Martin's Proposal Information Package,[24] Mars One released a Request for Proposals[26] for the various payloads on the lander. The total payload mass of 44 kg is divided among the seven payloads as follows:[26]

  1. Water extraction (10 kg)
  2. Soil acquisition (15 kg)
  3. Thin film solar power demonstrator (6 kg)
  4. Camera system (5 kg)
  5. Open for random proposals from the highest bidder (4 kg)
  6. Educational payload (2 kg)
  7. Winning university experiment (2 kg)

Concept studies for the mission have been completed but as of February 2015, no contracts to build hardware have begun.[7] Lansdorp has declined questions regarding when those contracts would be made.[7]

2020 unmanned lander mission

In 2020, an unmanned rover will be launched to Mars in order to pick a landing site for the 2025 Mars One landing and a site for the Mars One colony. At the same time, a communication satellite will be launched, enabling continuous communication with the Mars One colony.[27]

2022 cargo mission launch

In 2022, the cargo mission will be launched, containing two life-support units, and two supply units.[27]

2024 Mars One launch

A spacecraft containing four astronauts will be launched for Mars.[27]

2025 Mars One landing

In 2025, the landing module will land on Mars, containing four astronauts. They will be met by the rover launched in 2020, and taken to the Mars One colony.[27]

Astronauts selection and training

The application period

The application was available from 22 April 2013 to 31 August 2013.[28][29] The application consists of applicant’s general information, a motivational letter, a résumé and a video. Mars One plans to hold several other application periods in the future.

By 9 September 2013, 2,782 applicants had paid their registration fee and submitted public videos in which they made their case for going to Mars in 2023.[30] The application fee varies from US $5 to US $75 (the amount depending on the relative wealth of the applicant's country).[31]

Distribution of the 1,058 applicants selected for Round 2 according to the academic degree[32]

  Bachelor's degree (33%)
  Master's degree (15%)
  Ph.D (8%)
  Associate degree (3%)
  Doctor of Medicine (3%)
  Doctor of law (1%)
  Other (37%)

The results of applicants selected for round 2 were declared on 30 December 2013. A total of 1,058 applicants from 107 countries were selected.[17] The gender split is 586 male (about 55%) and 472 female (about 45%). Among the people that were selected for round 2, 159 have a master's degree, 347 have bachelor's degrees and 29 have Doctor of Medicine (M.D.) degrees. The majority of the applicants are under 36 and well educated.[33][34][35]

The Mars 100

Medically cleared candidates were interviewed, and 50 men and 50 women from the total pool of 660 from around the world were selected to move on to the third round of the astronaut selection process:.[36][37]

Regional selection period

Details of the 2015 selection phases have not been agreed upon due to ongoing negotiations with media companies for the rights to televise the selection processes.[38]

The regional selection may be broadcast on TV and Internet in countries around the world. In each region, plans include 20–40 applicants participating in challenges including rigorous simulations, many in team settings, with focus on testing the physical and emotional capabilities of the remaining candidates, with the aim of demonstrating their suitability to become the first humans on Mars. The audience is to select one winner per region, and the experts can select additional participants, if needed, to continue to the international level.[39][40]

From the previous selection series, six groups of four are to become full-time employees of the Mars One astronaut corps, after which they are to train for the mission. Whole teams and individuals might be deselected during training if they prove not to be suitable for the mission. Six to ten[citation needed] teams, of four people, are to be selected for seven years of full-time training. It is anticipated that this selection round is planned to run until the end of 2015.[39]

Revenues and investment

Mars One funding comes from a variety of sources, one of which is astronaut application fees.[41]

Reality TV

Mars One initially estimated a one-way trip, excluding the cost of maintaining four astronauts on Mars until they die at 6 billion USD.[42] Lansdorp has declined questions regarding the cost estimate because he believes "it would be very stupid for us to give the prices that have been quoted per component".[43] For comparison, an "austere" manned Mars mission (including a temporary stay followed by a return of the astronauts) proposed by NASA in 2009 had a projected cost of 100 billion USD after an 18-year program.[44]

Mars One, the not-for-profit foundation, is the controlling stockholder of the for-profit Interplanetary Media Group.[45] A global 'reality-TV' media event was intended to provide most of the funds to finance the expedition. The astronaut selection process (with some public participation) was to be televised and continue on through the first years of living on Mars.[46][47]

Discussions between Endemol, producers of the Big Brother series, Mars One ended with Endemol subsidiary Darlow Smithson Productions issuing a statement in February 2015 that they were "were unable reach agreement on the details of the contract" and that the company was "no longer involved in the project."[48] Lansdorp's updated plans no longer include live broadcasts from Mars but instead rely on a documentary style production adding "Just like the Olympics, we watch highlights, we don’t watch things that athletes do when they’re not performing their abilities."[49]

Mars One's investment of revenues[50]

  Concept design studies (78.3%)
  Travel expenses (11.6%)
  Legal expenses (3.3%)
  Website maintenance (2.4%)
  Communications (2.3%)
  Office and other (2.1%)

Sponsors

On 31 August 2012, company officials announced that funding from its first sponsors had been received.[42] Corporate sponsorship money will be used mostly to fund the conceptual design studies provided by the aerospace suppliers.[42]

Donations and merchandise

Since the official announcement of their conversion to a Stichting, Mars One has been accepting one time and regular monthly donations through their website. As of 31 January 2014, Mars One had received $795,185 in donations and merchandise sales.[51] The recent donation update adds the Indiegogo campaign ($313,744) to the private donation and merchandise total. The new total is $795,185 as of 28 February 2014. The difference showing Mars One raised $11,832 in the month of February.

The pie-chart alongside shows the break-up of Mars One's revenues into different areas. Over three quarters of the investment is in concept design studies. Mars One states that "income from donations and merchandise have not been used to pay salaries". To date, no financial records have been released for public viewing.[52]

Crowd funding

On 10 December 2013, Mars One set up a crowd funding campaign on Indiegogo to fund their 2018 demonstration mission. The 2018 mission includes a lander and communications satellite, and aims to prove several mission critical technologies in addition to launch and landing. The campaign goal was to raise $400,000 USD by 25 January 2014. Since the ending date was drawing near they decided to extend the ending date to 9 February 2014. By the end of the campaign, they had received $313,744 in funds. Indiegogo will receive 9% ($28,237) of the $313,744 for the campaign failing to achieve its goal.[53]

Technology

Mars One has identified at least one potential supplier for each component of the mission.[10][54] The major components are planned to be acquired from proven suppliers.[55] As of May 2013, Mars One has a contract with only one company, Paragon Space Development Corporation, for a preliminary life support study.[56]

Launcher

The Falcon Heavy from SpaceX was the notional launcher in the early Mars One conceptual plan,[55] which included the notional use of SpaceX hardware for the lander and crew habitat but, as of May 2013, SpaceX had not yet been contracted to supply mission hardware and SpaceX has stated that it did "not currently have a relationship with Mars One."[56] By March 2014, SpaceX indicated that they had been contacted by Mars One, and were in discussions, but that accommodating Mars One requirements would require some additional work and that such work was not a part of the current focus of SpaceX.[57]

Mars transit vehicle

A manned interplanetary spacecraft, which would transport the crew to Mars, would be assembled in low Earth orbit and comprise two propellant modules: a Transit Living Module (discarded just before arrival at Mars) and a lander (see "Human Lander" below).[55][58]

A potential supplier for the Transit living module as of November 2012 was Thales Alenia Space.[59][non-primary source needed]

Communications system

In December 2013 Mars One awarded a contract to Surrey Satellite Technology for a study of the satellite technology required to provide 24/7 communication between Earth and the Mars base.[60][61] Mars One expects that there will be at least two satellites, one in areostationary orbit above Mars and a second at the Earth – Sun L4 or L5 point to relay the signal when Mars blocks the geosynchronous satellite from line of sight to Earth.[61] It is possible that a third satellite will be required to relay the signal on the rare occasions when the sun blocks the first relay satellite from line of sight with Earth.[61]

Lander

The notional Mars One lander is a 5 meters (16 ft)-diameter variant of SpaceX's Dragon capsule.[citation needed]

Rover

The rover would be unpressurized and support travel distances of 80 km (50 miles).[62] A potential supplier for the rover as of November 2012 was Astrobotic Technology.[59][non-primary source needed]

Mars suit

The Mars suit would be flexible to allow the settlers to work with both cumbersome construction materials and sophisticated machinery when they are outside the habitat while protecting them from the cold, low pressure and noxious gases of the Martian atmosphere.[63] The likely supplier of the suits is ILC Dover.[64] On 12 March 2013, Paragon Space Development Corporation was contracted to develop concepts for life support and the Mars Surface Exploration Spacesuit System. The Paragon Space Development Corporation study was stated to be finished late summer 2013; Mars One continues to be silent about the results of this study.[65]

Criticism

Mars One has received a variety of criticism, mostly relating to medical,[66] technical and financial feasibility.

Chris Welch, director of Masters Programs at the International Space University, has said "Even ignoring the potential mismatch between the project income and its costs and questions about its longer-term viability, the Mars One proposal does not demonstrate a sufficiently deep understanding of the problems to give real confidence that the project would be able to meet its very ambitious schedule."[67]

Gerard 't Hooft, theoretical physicist and ambassador to Mars One, has stated that both their planned schedule and budget were off by a factor of ten.[68]

Space tourist Richard Garriott stated in response to Mars One, "Many have interesting viable starting plans. Few raise the money to be able to pull it off."[69]

Robert Zubrin, advocate for manned Martian exploration, said "I don't think the business plan closes it. We're going to go to Mars, we need a billion dollars, and we're going to make up the revenue with advertising and media rights and so on. You might be able to make up some of the money that way, but I don't think that anyone who is interested in making money is going to invest on that basis — invest in this really risky proposition, and if you're lucky you'll break even? That doesn't fly."[70] Despite his criticisms of some of the elements of Mars One, Zubrin became an advisor to Mars One on 10 October 2013.[71]

Many have also criticized the project's US$6 billion budget as being far too low to successfully transport humans to Mars. A similar project study by NASA estimated the cost of such a feat at US$100 billion, although that included transporting the astronauts back to Earth. Objections have also been raised regarding the reality TV project associated with the expedition. Given the transient nature of most reality TV ventures, many believe that as viewership declines, funding could significantly decrease thereby harming the entire expedition.[72]

Wired magazine gave it a plausibility score of 2 out of 10 as part of their 2012 Most Audacious Private Space Exploration Plans.[73]

In January 2014, German former astronaut Ulrich Walter strongly criticised the project for ethical reasons. Speaking with Berlin's Tagesspiegel, he estimated the probability of reaching Mars alive at only thirty percent, and that of surviving there more than three months at less than twenty percent. He said, "They make their money with that [TV] show. They don't care what happens to those people in space... If my tax money were used for such a mission, I would organise a protest."[74]

Astronaut Buzz Aldrin in an interview said that he wants to see humans on Mars by 2035, but he does not think the nonprofit organization Mars One will be the first to achieve it.[75]

A space logistics analysis conducted by students at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology revealed that the most optimistic of scenarios would require 15 Falcon Heavy launches that would cost approximately $4.5 billion.[76] They concluded that the reliability of Environmental Control and Life Support systems (ECLS), the Technology Readiness Levels (TRL), and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) would have to be improved. Additionally they determined that if the costs of launch were also lowered dramatically, together this would help to reduce the mass and cost of Mars settlement architecture.[76] The environmental system would result in failure to be able to support human life in 68 days, if fire safety standards on over oxygenation were followed, due to excessive use of nitrogen supplies that would not then be able to be used to compensate leakage of air out of the habitat, leading to a resultant loss in pressurization, ending with pressures too low to support human life.[77] Lansdorp replied that although he hasn't read all the research, that supplier Lockheed Martin says that the technologies were viable.[78]

The Daily Mail enumerated reasons why the project will never happen calling the project "foolish". The project lacks current funding as well as sources for future funding. The organization has no spacecraft or rocket in development or any contracts in place with companies that could provide a spacecraft or rocket. While plans point to SpaceX for both resources, the company has no contracts with Mars One in an industry that typically plans contracts decades in advance. The organization has not shared any research into the effects of microgravity on crews in flight or reduced gravity on the Mars surface. The organization has yet to provide plans or even study how crews might survive dust storms, supply challenges or the increased radiation on Mars.[79]

See also

References

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  79. ^ "FIVE REASONS MARS ONE WILL NEVER HAPPEN". Daily Mail.

Further reading

Wikimedia Commons has media related to Mars One.


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