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2024 Taiwanese presidential election

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2024 Taiwanese presidential election

← 2020 13 January 2024 2028 →
Registered19,548,531
 
Nominee Lai Ching-te Hou Yu-ih Ko Wen-je
Party DPP KMT TPP
Running mate Hsiao Bi-khim Jaw Shaw-kong Cynthia Wu
Popular vote 5,585,687 4,670,657 3,690,135
Percentage 40.05% 33.49% 26.46%

Administrative divisions of Taiwan

President before election

Tsai Ing-wen
DPP

Elected President

Lai Ching-te
DPP

Presidential elections were held in Taiwan (Republic of China) as part of the 2024 general elections.[1][2] Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is ineligible for reelection due to term limits.

The ruling DPP nominated Vice President Lai Ching-te, who had secured the party chairmanship by acclamation in March 2023. He selected Hsiao Bi-khim, the then-Representative to the United States, as his running mate.

The opposition Kuomintang (KMT) nominated the incumbent New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih as their candidate for president in May 2023. In November, Hou chose the former Legislative Yuan member Jaw Shaw-kong to be his running mate. The Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) nominated Ko Wen-je, its leader, the former Mayor of Taipei, who in turn chose Legislative Yuan member Cynthia Wu as his running mate. Despite previously saying he would support Hou’s nomination, businessman Terry Gou declared his own independent bid in September 2023, before ultimately dropping out in November.

Although the KMT and TPP had initially agreed to field a joint ticket in November 2023, the two sides were unable to reach a final agreement, and each announced their own vice presidential candidate on the last day of registration.

Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected president and is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May 2024.[3][4][5] This marked the first time since the 2000 election that the winning candidate obtained less than 50% of the vote, and the first time that a party won more than two consecutive presidential elections in a row since direct elections were introduced in 1996.

Background

Tsai Ing-wen, the incumbent President of the Republic of China (Taiwan), is ineligible to seek re-election after serving two terms.

Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) became the first woman president after winning the 2016 presidential election, defeating KMT nominee Eric Chu. She won a second term in 2020 and will serve until 2024.[6] Tsai resigned as party chairperson after the DPP suffered losses in the 2022 Taiwanese local elections. She was replaced in an acting capacity by Chen Chi-mai.[7] Tsai’s Vice President Lai Ching-te ultimately became the party chairperson by acclamation in late 2022.[8]

Qualifications and procedure

Presidential and vice presidential candidates are elected on the same ticket using first-past-the-post voting. This will be the eighth direct election of the president and vice president, the posts having previously been indirectly elected by the National Assembly until 1996. According to the constitution, Tsai, having served two terms, is term-limited from office. Under Article 22 of the Presidential and Vice Presidential Election and Recall Act, only the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), Taiwan People's Party (TPP), and New Power Party (NPP), having received more than five percent of the total vote in either the last presidential or legislative election, are eligible to contest the election.

Candidates register with the Central Election Commission. Under Article 23, independent candidates and smaller parties are also eligible to contest, registering as the candidates for President and Vice President by the way of joint signature shall, within five days after the public notice for election is issued, apply to the Central Election Commission to be the presentees recommended by way of joint signature and to receive a list of joint signers, and pay a deposit of NT$1,000,000. If the number of joint signers reaches 1.5% of the total electors in the latest Presidential and Vice Presidential Election withing the time limit, which is 45 days under normal circumstances or 25 days in case of a by-election or a reelection, the presentees will be allowed to proceed with contesting in the election after the joint signature documents are examined.[9] For the 2024 presidential election, the number of signatures required for independent candidates was approximately 290,000.[10] The complete petition was to be submitted between 13 and 17 September 2023, and the signature collection period followed from 17 September to 2 November 2023.[11] Presidential candidacies were formally registered between 20 and 24 November 2023.[12] Lots for ballot positioning were drawn on 11 December; the Taiwan People's Party ticket was to be listed first, followed by the Democratic Progressive Party, then the Kuomintang.[13]

Timetable

Key Dates
Date Event
15 March 2023 The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) officially nominates vice president Lai Ching-te as the party's presidential nominee.
8 May 2023 The Taiwan People's Party (TPP) officially nominates former Taipei mayor Ko Wen-je as the party's presidential nominee.
17 May 2023 The Kuomintang Party (KMT) officially nominates New Taipei mayor Hou Yu-ih as the party's presidential nominee.
28 August 2023 Businessman Terry Gou declares his candidacy for the presidency as an independent.
12 September-4 December 2023 Accepting applications for the election of the president and vice president and registration of electors who return to the country to exercise their right to vote.
14 September 2023 Terry Gou selects actress Lai Pei-hsia as his running mate.
13 November 2023 Gou qualifies to run in the presidential election.
13 November 2023 The KMT and TPP agree to use polling to determine the formation of a joint-ticket.
14 November 2023 Announcement of the signature results of the presidential and vice presidential election.
18 November 2023 The KMT and TPP fail to form a unity ticket by their own deadline.
20 November 2023 The Lai-Hsiao DPP ticket is formed, and formally register at the Central Election Commission.
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws from the election.
24 November 2023 Deadline for presidential candidate registration; the KMT and TPP file separate tickets.
20, 26 and 28 December 2023 3 sessions of policy presentation forum organized by Central Election Commission for presidential candidates.[14][15][16][17]
22 December 2023 Policy presentation forum organized by Central Election Commission for vice-president candidates.[14][15][16]
30 December 2023 Presidential debate featuring all three candidates, jointly organized by 11 Taiwanese media corporations and hosted at Public Television Service (PTS) studio.[18]
1 January 2024 Vice presidential debate organized jointly by 11 Taiwanese media corporations and hosted at PTS studio.[18]
13 January 2024 Voting will be held from 08:00 to 16:00.
20 May 2024 The next president will be inaugurated.

Nominations

Democratic Progressive Party

Incumbent president, two-time Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) presidential nominee, and former Chair of the DPP Tsai Ing-wen is ineligible to run, having completed two consecutive terms. Tsai resigned as DPP Chair in 2022, following the party’s poor performance in the local elections of that year.[19] After Tsai’s resignation, Vice President Lai Ching-te (also known as William Lai[20]) was unanimously elected to succeed her as Chair of the DPP.[21] Lai was previously selected to be Tsai’s running mate after she defeated him in the 2020 primary.[22] No primary was held, and Lai Ching-te, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Democratic Progressive Party.[23][24][25]

In November 2023, it was reported that Lai was considering selecting Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s representative to the United States, as his running mate.[26] Hsiao resigned from her position as US representative (de facto ambassador) and returned to Taiwan on 19 November.[27] Lai officially named Hsiao as the election running mate on the same day.[28] Upon selecting Hsiao, Lai called his new running mate “a warrior for democracy” with whom he shared a common vision for Taiwan. Lai’s decision to have Hsiao as his running mate was seen as a nod to the importance between Taiwan’s relationship with the US. The Lai-Hsiao ticket formally registered at the Central Election Commission 20 November 2023.[29]  

Nominees

2024 Democratic Progressive ticket
Lai Ching-te Hsiao Bi-khim
for President for Vice President
Vice President of the Republic of China (Taiwan)
(2020–2023)
Representative to the United States
(2020–2023)

Kuomintang

Hou Yu-ih, the Mayor of New Taipei since 2018, was drafted by the Kuomintang (KMT) on 17 May 2023 to be its nominee for the presidency.[30] Hou faced opposition from Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who vowed to support him as the KMT’s nominee.[31] On 24 November 2023, the Kuomintang named former legislator Jaw Shaw-kong as its vice presidential candidate.[32]

Nominees

2024 Kuomintang ticket
Hou Yu-ih Jaw Shaw-kong
for President for Vice President
Mayor of New Taipei
(2018–present)
President of Broadcasting Corporation of China
(2006–2024)

Taiwan People's Party

Ko Wen-je, being the only individual to register in the party's presidential primary, is the nominee of the Taiwan People's Party (TPP).[33][34] On 24 November 2023, Ko selected Cynthia Wu, current legislator since November 2022, as his running mate.[35]

Nominees

2024 Taiwan People's ticket
Ko Wen-je Cynthia Wu
for President for Vice President
Mayor of Taipei
(2014–2022)
Member of the Legislative Yuan
(2022–present)

Other parties and independents

All independent and minor party candidates needed a minimum of 290,000 signatures to register with the Central Election Commission.[36]

Withdrawn candidates

Billionaire businessman Terry Gou, who founded the global technology manufacturing company Foxconn in 1974, declared his own presidential run as an independent candidate on 28 August 2023.[37] This was despite previously stating he would support Kuomintang nominee Hou Yu-ih. The KMT described Gou’s announcement as ‘deeply regrettable’.[38] Lai Ching-te welcomed Gou’s entrance into the race, saying he would be happy to take on the challenge.[39] Gou was the first of the mainstream candidates to announce his running mate; he selected actress Lai Pei-hsia [zh] (otherwise known as Tammy Lai) as his running mate on 14 September.[40] Lai had previously played a fictional Taiwanese presidential candidate on a Chinese-language Netflix series, Wave Makers.[41] Gou’s campaign was mired by allegations that it was buying signatures.[42] By November 2023, at least 20 separate investigations into fraudulent practices and signature forgeries were opened.[43] 7 people were arrested in what was described as a ‘signature-buying scheme’ a few weeks earlier.[36] Gou denied these allegations, and claimed that individuals who were buying signatures were acting on their own accord and were not part of his official campaign. Gou submitted his signatures on 1 November 2023.[44] On 13 November, over 900,000 of Gou’s submitted signatures were validated by the election commission, qualifying him to run the presidential election.[45] Amidst the deadline to register with the Central Election Commission, Gou released a statement on 24 November dropping out of the race.[46] In a statement, Gou said “I’m dropping out, but my aspirations live on.”[47]  He did not endorse a candidate.[48]

2024 independent politician ticket
Terry Gou Lai Pei-hsia
for President for Vice President
Founder and CEO of Foxconn
(1974–2019)
Actor, singer, writer
Other withdrawn candidates

Disqualified candidates

Nine of ten third-party or independent presidential tickets did not meet the signature petition requirements set by the Central Election Commission, and were disqualified from the election. Including Gou, only five presidential candidates and their running mates attempted to submit signatures. The rest are as follows:[50]

Election campaign

File:Mingde 3rd Road name sign and Team Taiwan banner 20231014.jpg
A "Team Taiwan" election poster featuring Lai Ching-te, October 2023.

Throughout the election campaign, almost all polls have showed Vice President Lai Ching-te winning the election by a plurality, with the rest of the vote being split between the KMT and TPP.[51] Lai’s lead increased in September 2023, when Terry Gou announced his own independent bid for the presidency.[52] In August 2023, amid campaiging, Lai Ching-te went to Paraguay for an official visit in his capacity as Vice President, with two stopovers in the United States.[53] Lai insisted he was not campaigning during the trips.[54] In late October, China opened an investigation into Foxconn, after Chinese tax authorities conducted an audit of the company's subsidiaries in the Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces.[55] Within the final weeks preceding the election, Lai’s lead narrowed as the publication of opinion polls ceased.[56]

Lai and Hsiao held their first rally together on 26 November 2023, where they called the election a “fight for the survival of the country”.[57] Lai’s campaign used his late pet dog and Hsiao’s pet cats as campaign mascots, the cats allegedly referencing Hsiao’s “cat warrior" diplomacy.[58] Thousands of Taiwanese academics voiced their support for Lai, arguing the DPP would continue to safeguard the country’s democracy.[59] Hou of the KMT said Lai was “paying lip service” to voters, and described the election as a choice between war or peace. The TPP generally opted for smaller rallies, which primarily attracted younger voters.[57] As usual, temples were visited by party candidates so as to interact with voters.[60]

Unrealized KMT–TPP joint ticket

In late 2023, talks of a possible joint ticket between the KMT and TPP began.[61] It was initially unclear if the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je would join as a ticket, let alone who would be the nominee for president and vice president once a joint ticket was announced.[51] The DPP’s Lai stated he would be able to take on the challenge of a joint ticket, and criticized the coalition plans, arguing the two parties do not share enough similarity in ideology.[62] In November, Ko said that deciding who would lead the ticket as the presidential nominee was the ‘only hurdle’ remaining in forming the ticket.[51] On 13 November, the KMT and TPP agreed to use polling to determine the composition of the joint presidential ticket.[63] The order of the joint ticket was to be chosen based on opinion polls and publicly announced on 18 November,[64] but the two sides were unable to come to an agreement on that date.[65] On 18 November, the original deal collapsed following a dispute regarding the polling.[66] The KMT and TPP were reportedly unable to come to a consensus surrounding the margins of error.[67] Despite the initial collapse, there were still attempts to form a pan-blue coalition ticket. Terry Gou, who himself had run in the KMT primary, was informally invited to talks as well.[68]  A televised press conference between Hou You-ih, Ko Wen-je, Terry Gou, as well as Eric Chu and Ma Ying-jeou took place on 23 November.[69] The press conference did not yield any agreement between any of the involved parties, and was described as “bizarre”.[70][71] On 24 November, the deadline for candidate registration, each party announced their own vice presidential candidate, eliminating any chance of a pan-blue ticket.[72]

Campaign issues

Energy and economic policy

Hou and Ko both support gradually increasing the use of nuclear energy, (Hou supported 18% use by 2050) while the DPP’s Lai supports eliminating nuclear energy by 2050. All three candidates agreed to increase use of renewables.[73] The KMT vice presidential nominee criticized the use of solar energy, preferring nuclear power instead.[74] Cost of living featured as a topic of debate, with a third of voters saying economic issues were pressing. Both Lai and Hou pledged to increase the minimum wage.[75] Lai acknowledged there were shortcomings in the government’s approach to help younger people in the country, promising minimum wage would increase from NT$26,400 to NT$27,470 by 2025.[76] Additionally, Lai vowed to offer financial support to Taiwanese start-up companies, saying he would allocate NT$150 billion for small business investment.[77] Ko offered plans to integrate hospitals and bolster the medical field, while the KMT’s Hou promised to address mental health.[78]

Social issues

Rights groups such as the Awakening Foundation criticized all three major party candidates for not doing enough to promote gender equality, which includes reducing working hours for parents, the gender pay gap, and child care.[79] In October, Vice President Lai joined a Pride Parade in Taipei, becoming one of the most senior government officials to do so.[80] TPP candidate Ko Wen-je had historically been opposed to same-sex marriage.[81] Both William Lai and Ko Wen-je signed a pledge organized by the Taiwan Eqaulity Campaign promising to promote and support sexual diversity and LGBT equality.[82] Hou criticized Lai for his lack of a consistent position on capital punishment, which most polls show has been widely supported by the public. At the presidential debate, Lai stated although he was personally opposed to the death penalty, it would remain in place under his administration due to broad public support.[83]

Cross-Strait relations and national defense

In China, President Xi Jinping had further asserted his power, having secured an unprecedented third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party.[84] The 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine had also prompted fears of an escalation between Mainland China and Taiwan.[85] The CIA also warned not to underestimate the potential of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.[86] After incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen visited the United States and met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in April 2022, the Chinese military responded with military exercises near Taiwan.[87] When KMT nominee Hou Yu-ih  visited the US, he encouraged the Biden administration to make clear their commitment to defending Taiwan. Later in December, Hou stated he would seek closer ties with China, and criticized the Tsai administration’s approach to China.[88] Lai asserted Taiwanese sovereignty, but said a formal declaration of independence would be unnecessary. He also said he would be willing to work with the Chinese government, but only if they renounce any intentions to use force against Taiwan.[89] In November 2023, Lai argued that closer economic ties with like-minded countries could maintain Taiwan’s sovereignty while preventing escalation of conflict.[90]

The DPP generally favored a continuation of the status quo of cross-strait relations coupled by strengthening ties with the United States. Lai did not rule out dialogue with China, but described Taiwanese sovereignty as ‘a fact’, making any declaration of independence unnecessary.[91] The KMT believed economic links with Mainland China and more dialogue would preserve peace between the two.[92] Lai’s past self-identification as a “worker for Taiwanese independence” led to criticism from both Hou and Ko; Lai argued that Taiwan is a sovereign nation under the name the Republic of China.[93] Lai accused the opposition of befriending the Chinese Communist Party instead of countering them.[94] China’s Taiwan Affairs Council described the DPP ticket as a “separatist duo”. TPP candidate Ko stated that Taiwan should be a bridge between the US and China, rather than what he described as a pawn. Outgoing President Tsai of the DPP highlighted China’s one country two systems doctrine with Hong Kong as an example of what could happen if Taiwan were to reunify with Mainland China. Polls showed most Taiwanese preferred the status quo.[95] In response to former KMT President Ma Ying-jeou’s comments stating Taiwan must rely on Xi Jinping's willingness to not invade, Lai cautioned against trusting the Chinese government; instead he reiterated his plans to strengthen national defense.[96] Again outgoing Tsai reminded voters of Hong Kong’s place in China, arguing on 12 January 2024 that greater security would act as the best deterrent to any forceful reunification.[97]

In 2023, the Ministry of Defense commissioned the building of the first Haiku-class submarine. Launched in September 2023, it is set to enter service by 2025.[98] In an August 2023 interview with Bloomberg, Lai described a strong military capacity as being a form of deterrence against potential Chinese aggression.[99] In October, Lai said that Taiwan’s armed forces must be able to safeguard the country.[100] The Chinese government sanctioned five American-based companies for their sale of arms to Taiwan’s military one week before the election.[101]

Chinese influence concerns

By the election, prosecutors had opened thousands of cases into alleged interference. On 12 January, before the election, more than 200 people were arrested for Chinese interference.[102] VOA News reported that China was utilizing disinformation campaigns on social media to influence the election. Additionally, Taiwanese intelligence reported that China had begun coordinating such efforts.[103] Misinformation and conspiracy theories credited to China were also prevalent in the weeks before the election. According to the BBC, the goal of the online misinformation campaigns were to drive a wedge between Taiwan and the US, while simultaneously portraying the ladder as untrustworthy or unreliable regarding defense. Most sources of disinformation however, were credited to Taiwanese politicians favorable to China.[104]

Debates

Debates for presidential candidates and vice presidential candidates were announced on 8 December. These were organized by 11 Taiwanese media corporations including Taiwan's Public Television Service as the host, and include all 3 candidates for President and Vice President, respectively.[18][105] The presidential and vice-presidential debates were held on 30 December and 1 January respectively.[106][13] Prior to the debates, Central Election Commission organized several televised policy presentations on 20, 26, and 28 December for presidential candidates and on 22 December for vice presidential candidates.[14][15][16]

In the presidential policy presentations and only debate, Lai and Hou both sparred over cross-strait relations, with the two disagreeing on how to approach China. Hou also accused the DPP of corruption and criticized the party’s handling of COVID-19.[107] He repeatedly attacked Lai over his past support for Taiwanese independence, and reiterated the need for dialogue with China. He also rejected any possibility of a one country, two systems reunification plan for Taiwan.[108] Lai in contrast compared the KMT backed 1992 Consensus with China with Hong Kong’s one country, two systems model with China. He claimed annexing Taiwan is China’s national policy, and cautioned against embracing their ideals. Simultaneously, he stated the importance of a peaceful Taiwan Strait.[109] He stated his support for bolstering self-defense, increasing use of renewable energy, and the implementation of policies for strengthening the economy. Ko attempted to appeal to the youth, addressing housing, wages and other issues. He said he too was open to dialogue with the Chinese government.[110] Notably, Hou spoke in Taiwanese on numerous occasions.[111]

2024 Taiwan presidential election debate
Date Host[18]  P  Present    A  Absent   I  Invited  
DPP
Lai Ching-te
KMT
Hou Yu-ih
TPP
Ko Wen-je
30 December 2023[106] PTS[18] P P P

In the Vice Presidential presentations and debate, Wu repeatedly stressed her experience working with the US and strengthening trade, while Jaw called the DPP’s Lai a “terrorist”. Jaw was also subject to a gaffe in which he accidentally referred to Lai as his “boss”. Hsiao criticized her opponents for questioning her Taiwanese nationality, and also accused them of being overly reliant on China for economic prosperity.[112] Trade and concerns over China played large roles in all vice presidential debates and presentations.[113] The debate in particular focussed on trade, energy and foreign policy.[114] New Bloom Magazine declared the Vice Presidential debate as a “clear win” for Hsiao.[115] The last two presidential elections winning over the younger generation was the key to Victory[116]

2024 Taiwan vice presidential debate
Date Host[18]  P  Present    A  Absent   I  Invited  
DPP
Hsiao Bi-khim
KMT
Jaw Shaw-kong
TPP
Cynthia Wu
1 January 2024[106] PTS[18] P P P

Foreign observations

The elections were described as “crucial” regarding foreign policy.[117][118] The election was also described as being “closely watched” due to its impact on cross-strait ties.[119] CNN stated the election ‘could change the world’.[120]

Opinion polling

Local regression of polls conducted since 2023

After candidate registrations

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP
Hou-Jaw
KMT
Ko-Wu
TPP
Others
Undecided
Lead
3 January 2024 Publication of election polls forbidden until after the election.[121]
ETtoday 31 December 2023–1 January 2024 1,557 38.9% 35.8% 22.4% 2.8% 3.1%
Mirror Media 30–31 December 2023 1,099 35.6% 24.1% 24.2% 16.2% 11.4%
ETtoday 1,295 35.4% 33.4% 22.1% 3.1% 2%
TVBS 30 December 2023 1,407 33% 30% 24% 13% 3%
udn 26–30 December 2023 1,215 32% 27% 21% 20% 5%
FTNN 26–29 December 2023 1,200 35.8% 27.3% 22.1% 14.8% 8.5%
QuickseeK 1,285 33.7% 23.7% 27.7% 14.8% 10%
RW News 25–29 December 2023 12,409 36.89% 32.83% 28.64% 1.63% 4.06%
ETtoday 27–28 December 2023 1,740 36.6% 33.8% 22.2% 7.4% 2.8%
TVBS 22–28 December 2023 1,074 37% 33% 22% 9% 4%
SETN 26–27 December 2023 1,095 30.9% 27.9% 23.8% 17.5% 3%
ETtoday 25–26 December 2023 1,618 38.1% 34.8% 19.2% 7.8% 3.3%
Mirror Media 24–25 December 2023 1,081 33.3% 26.5% 23.2% 17.0% 6.8%
CMMedia 23–25 December 2023 1,066 29.5% 22.7% 27.8% 20.1% 1.7%
TPOF 22–24 December 2023 1,076 32.4% 28.2% 24.6% 14.8% 4.2%
Formosa 20–21 December 2023 1,070 38.2% 33.9% 16.1% 11.7% 4.3%
ETtoday 1,217 36.2% 34.8% 20.7% 8.2% 1.4%
TVBS 15–21 December 2023 1,840 33% 32% 24% 11% 1%
QuickseeK 17–20 December 2023 1,288 32.5% 27.2% 26.7% 13.6% 5.3%
udn 13–17 December 2023 1,250 31% 31% 21% 17% Tie
Z.Media 15–16 December 2023 1,213 31.4% 29.6% 20.5% 18.5% 1.8%
ETtoday 14–15 December 2023 1,300 38.5% 35.1% 19.6% 6.8% 3.4%
SETN 11–12 December 2023 1,000 34.7% 28.8% 21.2% 15.3% 5.9%
TVBS 5–12 December 2023 1,632 36% 32% 22% 9% 4%
Mirror Media 10–11 December 2023 1,075 33.5% 25.2% 23.7% 17.5% 8.3%
Formosa 27–28 November 2023 1,076 36.6% 30.5% 17.7% 15.3% 6.1%
RW News 24–28 November 2023 12,041 41.12% 31.05% 25.31% 2.52% 10.07%
TVBS 24–26 November 2023 1,744 34% 31% 23% 12% 3%
udn 1,238 31% 29% 21% 20% 2%
ETtoday 24 November 2023 1,348 34.8% 32.5% 21.2% 11.6% 2.3%

Before candidate registrations

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[46]
Formosa 24–25 October 2023 1,070 32.5% 21.9% 20.4% 5.3% 19.9% 10.6%
1,070 33.7% 24.6% 23.9% 17.8% 9.1%
TVBS 18–24 October 2023 1,447 33% 22% 24% 8% 14% 11%
34% 26% 29% 10% 5%
TPOF 15–17 October 2023 1,080 26.5% 20.2% 21.7% 12.4% 19.1% 6.3%
1,080 29.7% 21.1% 25.6% 23.6% 4.1%
Mirror Media 14–16 October 2023 1,072 32.3% 17.8% 23.2% 9.2% 17.4% 9.1%
1,072 32.1% 18.7% 24.8% 24.4% 7.3%
SETN 1–3 October 2023 1,000 30.9% 17.8% 24.2% 11.6% 15.5% 6.7%
1,000 32.2% 20.0% 26.8% 21.1% 5.4%
TVBS 22–26 September 2023 1,127 34% 21% 22% 9% 14% 12%
36% 26% 28% 11% 9%
Mirror Media 23–24 September 2023 1,096 34.5% 16.5% 24.1% 8.5% 16.3% 10.4%
1,096 33.3% 16.4% 28.0% 22.3% 5.3%
FTNN 19–24 September 2023 2,402 34.3% 16.3% 18.6% 9.1% 21.7% 12.6%
FTNN 2,402 34.9% 16.8% 20.8% 27.5% 7.4%
CMMedia 18–22 September 2023 1,213 27.9% 12.6% 22.4% 12.5% 24.6% 3.3%
Formosa 20–21 September 2023 1,072 37.3% 19.7% 16.9% 7.4% 18.7% 17.6%
1,072 40.0% 22.4% 21.6% 15.9% 17.6%
TPOF 18–20 September 2023 1,077 31.4% 15.7% 23.1% 10.5% 19.4% 8.3%
1,077 33.4% 17.2% 27.4% 22.1% 6%
TVBS 28 August – 1 September 2023 1,273 30% 19% 23% 14% 13% 7%
28 August 2023 Terry Gou declares his candidacy.
Mirror Media 27–28 August 2023 1,083 33.4% 15.3% 22.7% 12.9% 15.7% 10.7%
1,083 34.3% 16.2% 27.1% 22.4% 7.2%
Formosa 23–24 August 2023 1,070 40.1% 15.6% 16.6% 12.0% 15.8% 23.5%
1,070 42.5% 17.0% 21.1% 19.3% 21.4%
TVBS 21–24 August 2023 1,171 37% 22% 28% 13% 9%
QuickseeK 17–21 August 2023 1,222 35.6% 16.2% 24.4% 12.4% 11.4% 11.2%
1,222 35.8% 17.9% 29.6% 16.6% 6.2%
TPOF 14–15 August 2023 1,081 43.4% 13.6% 26.6% 16.3% 16.8%
FTNN 9–13 August 2023 2,402 31.2% 14.8% 19.5% 11.8% 22.7% 8.5%
2,402 33.4% 15.9% 23.2% 27.4% 6%
TVBS 24–26 July 2023 1,618 33% 25% 32% 10% 1%
Formosa 24–25 July 2023 1,071 33.1% 17.3% 20.7% 12.8% 16.1% 12.4%
1,071 35.1% 19.9% 24.0% 20.4% 11.1%
1,071 33.8% 17.4% 30.7%[122] 18.1% 3.1%
TPOF 17–18 July 2023 1,088 36.4% 20.2% 27.8% 15.7% 8.6%
TPOF 1,088 33.9% 18.0% 20.5% 15.2% 12.4% 13.4%
FTNN 11–16 July 2023 2,409 28.0% 12.4% 20.4% 14.4% 24.8% 3.2%
FTNN 2,409 30.2% 15.3% 25.4% 29.1% 1.1%
QuickseeK 7–10 July 2023 1,178 34.8% 19.3% 30.8% 15.0% 4%
1,178 32.8% 27.7% 24.5% 15.0% 5.1%
1,178 33.8% 17.0% 35.6%[122] 13.6% 1.8%
Z.Media 1–2 July 2023 1,079 29.8% 15.2% 24.4% 14.0% 16.2% 5.4%
1,079 32.0% 16.3% 35.8%[122] 15.5% 3.8%
1,079 29.9% 16.0% 29.8% 23.8% 0.1%
NCPF 30 June – 2 July 2023 1,075 31% 15% 19% 15% 20% 21%
1,075 34% 17% 25% 24% 10%
CNEWS 28 June – 1 July 2023 1,816 29.3% 18.5% 30.8% 21.4% 1.5%
Formosa 28–29 June 2023 1,070 33.3% 15.6% 20.9% 15.4% 14.8% 12.4%
1,070 35.9% 17.1% 28.6% 18.4% 7.3%
BCC-Gallup 16–20 June 2023 1,083 31.89% 17.93% 24.62% 21.97% 7.28%
TVBS 14–16 June 2023 1,080 30% 23% 33% 14% 10%
TPOF 12–13 June 2023 1,080 36.5% 20.4% 29.1% 14.0% 7.4%
CNEWS 31 May – 1 June 2023 1,077 35.7% 25.9% 24.9% 13.5% 9.8%
Formosa 29–30 May 2023 1,072 35.4% 22.6% 25.5% 16.5% 9.9%
Formosa 24–25 May 2023 1,072 35.8% 18.3% 25.9% 20% 9.9%
NCPF 22–24 May 2023 1,082 34% 23% 23% 20% 11%
Fount Media 22–23 May 2023 1,074 26.6% 24.7% 21.1% 27.6% 1.9%
SETN 17–18 May 2023 1,080 29.8% 29.2% 20.8% 20.2% 0.6%
TVBS 17–18 May 2023 1,444 27% 30% 23% 20% 3%

Issue polling

Pollster Fieldwork date Sample problem Sample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
ETtoday 10–16 October 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,582 34.7% 27.4% 25.5% 12.3% 7.3%
RW News 10–14 October 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,055 42.62% 22.29% 24.93% 5.86% 4.30% 17.69%
11,055 42.85% 22.87% 26.09% 8.20% 16.76%
udn 22–25 September 2023 No raw data 1,082 30% 20% 21% 30% Tie
ETtoday 23–24 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,368 32.0% 24.5% 20.7% 13.2% 9.6% 7.4%
RW News 12–16 September 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 10,846 42.52% 22.25% 24.23% 6.58% 4.41% 18.29%
KPoint Survey & Research 12–14 September 2023 No raw data 1,073 29.4% 18.4% 16.7% 14.0% 21.5% 7.9%
1,073 29.2% 21.5% 19.6% 29.7% 0.5%
ETtoday 8–9 September 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,337 35.1% 24.8% 20.0% 12.9% 7.2% 10.3%
1,337 36.5% 29.5% 22.9% 11.0% 7%
ETtoday 29–30 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,495 35.3% 21.4% 17.6% 17.2% 8.4% 13.9%
ETtoday 18–20 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,207 35.4% 25.6% 24.2% 14.9% 9.8%
RW News 15–19 August 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 11,324 40.56% 22.16% 23.13% 8.96% 5.18% 17.43%
RW News 11,324 40.99% 22.79% 25.80% 10.12% 15.19%
ETtoday 15–17 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,235 31.7% 18.6% 17.5% 10.2% 22.0% 9.7%
KPoint Survey & Research 31 July – 2 August 2023 No raw data 1,075 30.3% 15.1% 18.2% 14.8% 21.6% 8.7%
1,075 32.3% 15.8% 23.1% 28.8% 3.5%
Newtalk 31 July – 1 August 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,402 30.46% 16.92% 24.71% 17.34% 10.58% 5,75%
1,402 29.46% 26.23% 26.31% 18.0% 3.15%
Newtalk 1,402 33.5% 21.4% 29.57% 15.53% 3.93%
ETtoday 28–30 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,753 33.4% 21.0% 21.6% 16.4% 7.7% 11.8%
ETtoday 1,753 35.6% 24.3% 28.8% 11.3% 6.8%
TISR 19–20 July 2023 No raw data 1,068 29.0% 13.2% 17.7% 10.7% 4.0% 11.3%
1,068 33.8% 15.6% 24.9% 6.0% 8.9%
RW News 12–16 July 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,464 38.23% 20.39% 25.29% 9.22% 6.87% 12.94%
RW News 12,464 38.48% 21.29% 28.34% 11.89% 10.14%
ACEL 10–12 July 2023 No raw data 1,003 33.6% 14.8% 21.1% 12.5% 18.0% 15.6%
1,003 32.4% 17.6% 25.9% 24.1% 6.5%
ERA NEWS 3–6 July 2023 No raw data 1,070 34.9% 14.5% 19.2% 14.6% 16.8% 15.7%
1,070 35.5% 17.2% 24.2% 23.1% 11.3%
Newtalk 30 June – 1 July 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 3,245 28.26% 14.63% 21.94% 22.29% 12.89% 5.97%
3,245 28.49% 24.07% 28.77% 18.67% 0.28%
Newtalk 1,070 32.77% 21.31% 30.74% 15.19% 2.03%
RW News 6–10 June 2023 Online questionnaire backfill 12,030 37.8% 21.9% 31.3% 9.1% 6.5%
KPoint Survey & Research 6–9 June 2023 No raw data 1,076 31.2% 17.9% 21.5% 29.4% 1.8%
ETtoday 23–25 May 2023 Member mobile SMS backfill 1,223 36.4% 27.7% 23.1% 12.8% 8.7%
udn 18–21 May 2023 No raw data 1,090 28% 24% 22% 27% 1%

Formosa daily poll

Number Fieldwork date Sample size Lai-Hsiao
DPP
Hou-Jaw
KMT
Ko-Wu
TPP
Others
Undecided
Lead
101 27–29 December 2023 1,253 39.6% 28.5% 18.9% 13.0% 11.1%
100 26–28 December 2023 1,326 40.2% 28.7% 18.4% 12.8% 11.5%
99 25–27 December 2023 1,201 40.0% 28.9% 17.6% 13.5% 11.1%
98 22, 25–26 December 2023 1,201 38.7% 29.7% 16.6% 15.0% 9%
97 21–22, 25 December 2023 1,349 38.9% 29.4% 17.2% 14.4% 9.5%
96 20–22 December 2023 1,470 37.5% 32.6% 16.3% 13.6% 4.9%
95 19–21 December 2023 1,470 37.3% 33.4% 17.7% 11.6% 3.9%
94 18–20 December 2023 1,322 36.3% 32.8% 17.7% 13.6% 3.5%
93 15, 18–19 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 30.6% 19.6% 14.6% 4.6%
92 14–15, 18 December 2023 1,201 35.0% 31.7% 18.2% 15.1% 3.3%
91 13–15 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 32.1% 19.7% 13.0% 3.1%
90 12–14 December 2023 1,201 35.7% 31.7% 18.6% 14.0% 4%
89 11–13 December 2023 1,201 35.2% 29.5% 19.0% 16.3% 5.7%
88 8, 11–12 December 2023 1,201 34.7% 31.2% 16.8% 17.3% 3.5%
87 7–8, 11 December 2023 1,201 35.1% 32.5% 17.0% 15.4% 2.6%
86 6–8 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 32.6% 17.3% 12.3% 5.6%
85 5–7 December 2023 1,201 40.5% 30.8% 16.3% 12.5% 9.7%
84 4–6 December 2023 1,201 40.1% 31.6% 14.8% 15.5% 8.5%
83 1, 4–5 December 2023 1,201 38.3% 31.4% 14.8% 15.4% 6.9%
82 30 November–1, 4 December 2023 1,201 38.0% 31.7% 14.9% 15.4% 6.3%
81 29 November–1 December 2023 1,201 37.8% 29.5% 17.7% 15.0% 8.3%
80 28–30 November 2023 1,348 37.1% 30.5% 17.5% 14.9% 6.6%
78 24, 27–28 November 2023 1,476 36.3% 31.0% 18.0% 14.7% 5.3%

CNEWS weekly poll

Sample Week Fieldwork date Sample method Sample size Lai
DPP
Hou
KMT
Ko
TPP
Gou
IND.
Others
Undecided
Lead
1st week of December 30 November – 1 December 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,008 36.9% 28.0% 26.0% 9.1% 8.9%
local phone 1,000 37.1% 32.9% 17.4% 12.6% 4.2%
4th week of November 24 – 25 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,013 36.8% 26.6% 26.8% 9.8% 10%'
local phone 1,000 39.9% 29.7% 18.9% 11.5% 10.2%
24 November 2023 Terry Gou withdraws his candidacy.[46]
2nd week of November 10 – 11 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,046 30.8% 18.0% 26.0% 9.3% 15.9% 4.8%
local phone 1,033 33.9% 22.2% 22.4% 7.3% 14.2% 11.5%
1st week of November 4 – 5 November 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,000 32.7% 17.3% 25.8% 10.0% 14.2% 6.9%
local phone 1,000 34.7% 20.9% 19.7% 9.9% 14.8% 13.8%
5th week of October 29 – 30 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,049 25.6% 16.0% 25.4% 13.3% 19.7% 0.2%
local phone 1,012 29.1% 18.2% 20.4% 10.8% 21.5% 8.7%
4th week of October 21 – 22 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,048 24.0% 16.2% 24.7% 15.8% 19.3% 0.7%
local phone 1,034 27.6% 19.1% 19.7% 14.1% 19.5% 7.9%
3rd week of October 13 – 14 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,062 29.7% 16.2% 27.7% 11.7% 14.7% 2%
local phone 1,051 34.8% 19.6% 20.4% 8.9% 16.3% 14.4%
2nd week of October 7 – 8 October 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,045 31.6% 17.0% 26.7% 11.2% 13.5% 4.9%
local phone 1,030 36.0% 17.8% 20.4% 9.1% 16.7% 15.6%
1st week of October 29 – 30 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,037 28.6% 16.9% 24.3% 12.3% 17.9% 4.3%
local phone 1,030 31.5% 17.8% 19.8% 10.2% 20.7% 10.8%
4th week of September 23 – 24 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,016 27.3% 14.2% 23.7% 14.2% 20.6% 3.6%
local phone 1,013 32.6% 14.8% 18.9% 12.3% 20.4% 12.2%

3rd week of September

15 – 16 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,052 28.0% 16.3% 22.6% 13.7% 19.4% 5.4%
local phone 1,025 29.7% 20.8% 16.7% 14.1% 18.7% 8.9%
2nd week of September 9 – 10 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,145 28.4% 15.6% 23.4% 13.0% 19.6% 5%
local phone 1,127 31.5% 16.1% 18.9% 10.6% 22.9% 8.6%
1st week of September 1 – 2 September 2023 local phone + mobile phone 2,024 29.7% 14.8% 23.4% 12.6% 19.5% 6.3%
local phone 1,008 35.4% 15.1% 16.7% 10.7% 22.1% 13.3%
Note
  • Taiwan CNEWS believes that the different survey methods of each media have led to huge differences in results, and decided to continue to publish presidential election polls starting in September 2023.
  • The survey method is 50% local phone and 50% mobile phone. The number of samples is more than 2,000. In addition, more than 1,000 local phone survey results are simultaneously calculated.

Results

99.99% reporting
CandidateRunning matePartyVotes%
Lai Ching-teHsiao Bi-khimDemocratic Progressive Party5,585,68740.05
Hou Yu-ihJaw Shaw-kongKuomintang4,670,65733.49
Ko Wen-jeCynthia WuTaiwan People's Party3,690,13526.46
Total13,946,479100.00
Registered voters/turnout19,548,531
Source: Central Election Commission

Aftermath

At around 8 p.m., Hou conceded to Lai in an address to his supporters at his campaign headquarters in New Taipei. He also apologized for failing to end eight years of DPP rule.[123] At 8:04 pm, Ko addressed his supporters at his campaign headquarters in New Taipei. He said that the TPP's campaign showed the world that Taiwan was no longer dominated by the "green" and "blue" camps and urged his supporters to continue their hard work for the next election.[124]

Reactions

Notes

See also

References

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