2016 Manitoba general election

2016 Manitoba general election

April 19, 2016 (2016-04-19)
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba 29 seats needed for a majority
Turnout	57.43%
First party Second party   Leader Brian Pallister Greg Selinger Party Progressive Conservative New Democratic Leader since July 30, 2012 October 17, 2009 Leader's seat Fort Whyte St. Boniface Last election 19 seats, 43.71% 37 seats, 46.16% Seats before 19 35 Seats won 40 14 Seat change 21 21 Popular vote 232,215 112,748 Percentage 53.10% 25.78% Swing 9.39% 20.38%   Third party Fourth party   Leader Rana Bokhari James Beddome Party Liberal Green Leader since October 26, 2013 November 15, 2014 Leader's seat ran in Fort Rouge (lost) ran in Fort Garry-Riverview (lost) Last election 1 seat, 7.52% 0 seats, 2.52% Seats before 1 0 Seats won 3 0 Seat change 2 Popular vote 62,973 22,188 Percentage 14.40% 5.07% Swing 6.88% 2.62%
Popular vote by riding. As this is an FPTP election, seat totals are not determined by popular vote, but instead via results by each riding.
Premier before election Greg Selinger New Democratic Premier after election Brian Pallister Progressive Conservative

The 2016 Manitoba general election was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada. The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP government. The Tories won 40 seats, one of the largest majority governments in Manitoba history, the other one was in 1915 when Liberals also won 40 seats.

The election also removed one of the two New Democratic governments in the country, the other being formed by the Alberta New Democratic Party.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election. As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April. Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election was scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early. The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting; in the context of the Manitoba election, however, polling found that none of the three main party leaders was particularly well-liked or trusted by the electorate. Although Pallister fared best with 33 per cent support in public opinion polling on the question of preferred premier, even he finished only one point ahead of "none of the above" at 32 per cent.

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate. Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.

Election summary

The Tories went into the election as heavy favourites, having led opinion polls for almost four years. They scored a near-sweep of rural southern and central Manitoba, and also made significant inroads in Winnipeg, taking every seat in the southern and western portions of the capital. In many cases, previously safe NDP seats either fell to the Tories or saw the NDP margins cut by more than half.

Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election

Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
				2011	Dissol.	2016	+/-	Votes	%	% change
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	57	19	19	40	+21	232,215	53.10	+9.39
	New Democratic	Greg Selinger	57	37	35	14	-21	112,748	25.78	−20.38
	Liberal	Rana Bokhari	51	1	1	3	+2	62,973	14.40	+6.88
	Green	James Beddome	30	–	–	–	–	22,188	5.07	+2.55
	Manitoba	Gary Marshall	16	–	–	–	–	4,887	1.12	n/a
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	6	–	–	–	–	305	0.07	+0.03
	Independents		4	–	–	–	–	2,032	0.46	+0.41
	Vacant				2
Total			221	57	57	57		437,348

Popular vote PC   53.10% New Democratic   25.78% Liberal   14.40% Green   5.07% Others   1.65%

Seats summary PC   70.18% New Democratic   24.56% Liberal   5.26%

Summary results

↓

40	14	3
Progressive Conservative	New Democratic	Liberal

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – seats won/lost by party, 2011–2016

Party		2011	Gain from (loss to)			2016
			NDP	PC	Lib
	New Democratic	37		(21)	(2)	14
	Progressive Conservative	19	21			40
	Liberal	1	2			3
Total		57	23	(21)	(2)	57

Elections to the 41st Manitoba Legislature – top 5 candidates from each riding, by party

Party		Candidates	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th
	Progressive Conservative	57	40	11	6	–	–
	New Democratic	57	14	28	12	3	–
	Liberal	51	3	11	31	6	–
	Green	30	–	4	5	20	1
	Manitoba	16	–	2	1	5	7
	Independent	4	–	1	–	3	–

Party candidates in 2nd place

Party in 1st place		Party in 2nd place						Total
		PC	NDP	Lib	Grn	MB	Ind
	Progressive Conservative	–	26	8	3	2	1	40
	New Democratic	10	–	3	1	–		14
	Liberal	1	2	–	–	–	–	3
Total		11	28	11	4	2	1	57

Principal races, according to 1st and 2nd-place results

Parties		Seats
█ Progressive Conservative	█ New Democratic	36
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Liberal	9
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Green	3
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Manitoba	2
█ Progressive Conservative	█ Independent	1
█ New Democratic	█ Liberal	5
█ New Democratic	█ Green	1
Total		57

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

Party		Riding	Incumbent
	NDP
		Assiniboia	Jim Rondeau
		Dauphin	Stan Struthers
		Dawson Trail	Ron Lemieux
		Fort Rouge	Jennifer Howard
		Radisson	Bidhu Jha
		St. Johns	Gord Mackintosh
		St. Vital	Nancy Allan
		Seine River	Theresa Oswald
		Transcona	Daryl Reid
	Progressive Conservative
		Agassiz	Stu Briese
		Riding Mountain	Leanne Rowat
		River East	Bonnie Mitchelson

Opinion polls

  NDP

  Progressive Conservative

  Liberal

  Green

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	NDP	PC	Liberal	Green	Other
Insights West	April 18, 2016	HTML	28	53	10	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 18, 2016	HTML	22	49	19	9	1
Forum Research	April 17, 2016	PDF	21	52	18	9
Mainstreet Research	April 14, 2016	HTML	26	55	11	9
Insights West	April 7, 2016	HTML	26	49	17	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 7, 2016	HTML	24	49	22	5
Mainstreet Research	April 5, 2016	HTML	24	50	17	9
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2016	PDF	28	46	20	6
Mainstreet Research	March 29, 2016	HTML	23	45	24	7
Mainstreet Research	March 19, 2016	HTML	24	44	24	7
Forum Research	March 13, 2016	PDF	22	46	23	8	1
Mainstreet Research	March 12, 2016	HTML	27	43	24	7
Mainstreet Research	February 20, 2016	HTML	21	50	23	6
Mainstreet Research	February 11, 2016	HTML	21	51	20	7
Mainstreet Research	January 25, 2016	HTML	20	52	20	9
Mainstreet Research	January 9, 2016	HTML	23	44	27	6
Insightrix Research	December 22, 2015	HTML	19	39	36	5	1
Probe Research Inc	December 15, 2015	PDF	22	43	29		6
Probe Research Inc	September 23, 2015	PDF	25	45	24		5
Probe Research Inc	June 27, 2015	PDF	29	46	19		5
Probe Research Inc	April 5, 2015	PDF	29	44	20		7
Probe Research Inc	December 12, 2014	HTML	26	48	19		7
Mainstreet Research	November 3, 2014	HTML	27	53	20
Probe Research Inc	October 1, 2014	HTML	30	42	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 19, 2014	HTML	32	45	16		7
Probe Research Inc	March 28, 2014	HTML	28	46	23		3
Insightrix Research	February 7, 2014	HTML	24	49	18	9
Probe Research Inc	December 27, 2013	PDF	26	48	20		6
Probe Research Inc	September 28, 2013	HTML	29	43	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 26, 2013	PDF	28	46	17		10
Probe Research Inc	April 14, 2013	PDF	35	42	15		8
Probe Research Inc	December 14, 2012	PDF	39	43	11		7
Probe Research Inc	October 14, 2012	PDF	45	38	11		6
Probe Research Inc	June 29, 2012	PDF	44	40	13		3
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2012	PDF	40	45	10		5
2011 election	October 4, 2011		46.2	43.7	7.5	2.5	0.1

Candidates by riding

• Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Flin Flon		Tom Lindsey 1,106		Angela Enright 954		Leslie Beck 948				Clarence Pettersen (Ind.) 359		Clarence Pettersen
Kewatinook		Eric Robinson 1,207		Edna Nabess 375		Judy Klassen 1,565						Eric Robinson
Swan River		Ron Kostyshyn 2,408		Rick Wowchuk 4,081		Shayne Lynxleg 483		Dan Soprovich 296				Ron Kostyshyn
The Pas		Amanda Lathlin 1,976		Doug Lauvstad 1,765		Tyler Duncan 586		Patrick Wood 217				Amanda Lathlin
Thompson		Steve Ashton 1,527		Kelly Bindle 1,712		Inez Vystrcil-Spence 638						Steve Ashton

Westman/Parkland

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Agassiz		Courtney Lucas 450		Eileen Clarke 5,228				Robert Smith 409		Damian Dempsey (Ind.) 910		Stu Briese
Arthur-Virden		Lorne Topolniski 600		Doyle Piwniuk 6,006						Frank Godon (Manitoba) 846		Doyle Piwniuk
Brandon East		Drew Caldwell 2,534		Len Isleifson 3,669		Vanessa Hamilton 830						Drew Caldwell
Brandon West		Linda Ross 1,884		Reg Helwer 5,624		William Moore 631						Reg Helwer
Dauphin		Darcy Scheller 1,899		Brad Michaleski 4,795		Garry Gurke 505		Kate Storey 595		Darrell Inkster (Manitoba) 168		Stan Struthers
Riding Mountain		Béla Gyarmati 601		Greg Nesbitt 5,311		Jordan Fleury 1,028		Mark Olenick 779				Leanne Rowat
Spruce Woods		Amanda Chmelyk 665		Cliff Cullen 5,210		Jaron Hart 512				Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba) 738		Cliff Cullen

Central Manitoba

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Emerson		Alanna Jones 432		Cliff Graydon 4,943		Loren Braul 1,423						Cliff Graydon
Gimli		Armand Bélanger 2,579		Jeff Wharton 5,614				Dwight Harfield 843		Ed Paquette (Manitoba) 239		vacant
Interlake		Tom Nevakshonoff 1,428		Derek Johnson 3,685		Jamal Abas 2,068						Tom Nevakshonoff
Lakeside		Matt Austman 1,369		Ralph Eichler 6,077								Ralph Eichler
Midland		Jacqueline Theroux 714		Blaine Pedersen 6,168		Julia Sisler 523		Stacey O’Neill 797				Blaine Pedersen
Morden-Winkler		Elizabeth Lynch 215		Cameron Friesen 6,598		Benjamin Bawdon 279		Mike Urichuk 667				Cameron Friesen
Morris		Mohamed Alli 840		Shannon Martin 6,980		John Falk 1,430						Shannon Martin
Portage la Prairie		Alex MacDonald 697		Ian Wishart 4,635		Stephen Prince 1,238						Ian Wishart

Eastman

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Dawson Trail		Roxane Dupuis 1,678		Bob Lagassé 4,430		Terry Hayward 1,652				David Sutherland (Manitoba) 516		Ron Lemieux
Lac du Bonnet		Wendy Sol 1,647		Wayne Ewasko 5,666								Wayne Ewasko
La Verendrye		Echo Asher 705		Dennis Smook 5,262		Bill Paulishyn 696		Janine Gibson 724				Dennis Smook
Steinbach		Kathleen McCallum 387		Kelvin Goertzen 6,982		Dakota Young-Brown 461						Kelvin Goertzen
St. Paul		Andrew Podolecki 1,757		Ron Schuler 7,091		Pete Sanderson 1,055						Ron Schuler
Selkirk		Greg Dewar 2,366		Alan Lagimodiere 4,686		Stefan Jones 1,390						Greg Dewar

Northwest Winnipeg

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Burrows		Melanie Wight 1,775		Rae Wagner 1,014		Cindy Lamoureux 2,641		Garrett Bodnaryk 216		Tony Petrowski (Communist) 28		Melanie Wight
Kildonan		Dave Chomiak 3,065		Nic Curry 3,694		Navdeep Khangura 974		Steven Stairs 456		Gary Marshall (Manitoba) 133		Dave Chomiak
Point Douglas		Kevin Chief 2,839		Marsha Street 811		Althea Guiboche 956		Alberteen Spence 247		Frank Komarniski (Communist) 58		Kevin Chief
St. Johns		Nahanni Fontaine 2,358		Barbara Judt 1,869		Noel Bernier 1,465		Elizabeth Puchailo 671				Gord Mackintosh
The Maples		Mohinder Saran 2,832		Kaur Sidhu 2,705		Harbans Singh Brar 1,695		John Redekopp 582				Mohinder Saran
Tyndall Park		Ted Marcelino 2,139		Naseer Warraich 1,306		Aida Champagne 1,656		Shane Neustaeter 391				Ted Marcelino

Northeast Winnipeg

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Concordia		Matt Wiebe 2,761		Andrew Frank 2,483		Donovan Martin 642				Terry Scott (Manitoba) 254		Matt Wiebe
Elmwood		Jim Maloway 2,993		Sarah Langevin 2,886						Albert Ratt (Manitoba) 579		Jim Maloway
Radisson		Preet Singh 2,945		James Teitsma 4,635		Scott Newman 1,593						Bidhu Jha
River East		Jody Gillis 2,435		Cathy Cox 6,154		Piero Scaramuzzi 776						Bonnie Mitchelson
Rossmere		Erna Braun 3,389		Andrew Micklefield 5,303		Malli Aulakh 838				William Sullivan (Manitoba) 427		Erna Braun
St. Boniface		Greg Selinger 3,624		Mamadou Ka 2,211		Alain Landry 1,663		Signe Knutson 1,048				Greg Selinger
Transcona		Barb Burkowski 2,281		Blair Yakimoski 3,948		Chad Panting 1,465				Darrell Rankin (Communist) 68 Ajit Kumar (Manitoba) 233		Daryl Reid

West Winnipeg

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Assiniboia		Joseph McKellep 2,196		Steven Fletcher 3,450		Ian McCausland 1,631		Ileana Ohlsson 580				Jim Rondeau
Charleswood		Janna Barkman 1,168		Myrna Driedger 5,298		Paul Brault 1,187		Kevin Nichols 1,080				Myrna Driedger
Kirkfield Park		Sharon Blady 3,075		Scott Fielding 5,457		Kelly Nord 889		Lisa Omand 784				Sharon Blady
St. James		Deanne Crothers 2,723		Scott Johnston 3,532		Michelle Finley 1,150		Jeff Buhse 850		Brad Gross (Manitoba) 137		Deanne Crothers
Tuxedo		Zach Fleisher 1,312		Heather Stefanson 4,986		Michael Lazar 1,251		Bob Krul 976				Heather Stefanson

Central Winnipeg

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Fort Garry-Riverview		James Allum 3,450		Jeannette Montufar 3,149		Johanna Wood 807		James Beddome 1,711				James Allum
Fort Rouge		Wab Kinew 3,360		Audrey Gordon 2751		Rana Bokhari 1,792		Grant Sharp 983		Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba) 175 Paula Ducharme (Communist) 47		Jennifer Howard
Logan		Flor Marcelino 2,020		Allie Szarkiewicz 997		Peter Koroma 1,457		Jitendradas Loves-Life 397		Joe Chan (Manitoba) 185 Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist) 63		Flor Marcelino
Minto		Andrew Swan 2,954		Belinda Squance 1,016		Demetre Balaktsis 723		Martha Jo Willard 410		Andrew Taylor (Communist) 41 Virgil Gil (Manitoba) 51 Don Woodstock (Ind) 589		Andrew Swan
River Heights		Shafagh Daneshfar 591		Tracey Maconachie 3,485		Jon Gerrard 5,230		Michael Cardillo 771				Jon Gerrard
Wolseley		Rob Altemeyer 3,037		Raquel Dancho 945		Shandi Strong 653		David Nickarz 2,645		Wayne Sturby (Manitoba) 79		Rob Altemeyer

South Winnipeg

Electoral district	Candidates										Incumbent
	NDP		PC		Liberal		Green		Other
Fort Richmond		Kerri Irvin-Ross 2,274		Sarah Guillemard 2,879		Kyra Wilson 814		Cameron Proulx 540				Kerri Irvin-Ross
Fort Whyte		George Wong 1,718		Brian Pallister 6,775		Peter Bastians 1,205		Carli Runions 731		Daryl Newis (Manitoba) 127		Brian Pallister
Riel		Christine Melnick 3,053		Rochelle Squires 5,024		Neil Johnston 1,627						Christine Melnick
Seine River		Lise Pinkos 2,343		Janice Morley-Lecomte 5,396		Peter Chura 2,388						Theresa Oswald
Southdale		Dashi Zargani 2,460		Andrew Smith 6,663		Ryan Colyer 1,318						vacant
St. Norbert		Dave Gaudreau 3,062		Jon Reyes 4,673		James Bloomfield 1,251				Narinder Kaur Johar 174		Dave Gaudreau
St. Vital		Jamie Moses 2,831		Colleen Mayer 3,229		Bryan Van Wilgenburg 1,296		Kelly Whelan-Enns 791				Nancy Allan

External links

• Elections Manitoba