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2022 South Korean presidential election

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2022 South Korea presidential election
← 2017 9 March 2022 2027 →
 
Party Democratic United Future
 
Party Justice People Party (South Korea)
Incumbent President

Moon Jae-in
Democratic



A presidential election is scheduled to be held in South Korea in 2022. It will be the eighth presidential election since democratization and the establishment of the Sixth Republic. Under the South Korean constitution, the president is restricted to a single five-year term in office,[1] meaning the incumbent president Moon Jae-in is ineligible to run for a second term.

Background

Following the 2016 South Korean political scandal, longtime liberal politician Moon Jae-in of the Democratic Party of Korea defeated right-wing firebrand Hong Jun-pyo (Liberty Korea Party) and centrist Ahn Cheol-soo by a wide margin in the 2017 presidential election. Following a somewhat rocky first three years in office, Moon's hand was significantly strengthened by his party's historic victory in the 2020 legislative election, which gave his party an absolute majority of 163 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly[2].

While the National Assembly election was seen as a test of Moon's popularity, the contest for the symbolically crucial Jongno district (which contains the Blue House) between two former Prime Ministers, the liberal Lee Nak-yeon and the conservative Hwang Kyo-ahn, was seen as a harbinger of the 2022 presidential contest[3]. Lee won the contest and is considered to be the frontrunner for the 2022 presidential election[4][5].

Electoral system

The President of South Korea is elected via a single round plurality voting system. The President serves a term of five years and is ineligible to seek re-election either directly or indirectly. Should a vacancy arise, a successor must be elected within sixty days, during which time presidential duties are to be performed by the Prime Minister of South Korea or other senior cabinet members in the order of priority as determined by law.[1]

Incumbent president Moon Jae-in has proposed the adoption of a system that allows for presidents to serve two four-year terms for a maximum of eight years in the Blue House, though his senior staff has confirmed that any such proposal would not apply to Moon himself.[6][7] The composition of the National Assembly from 2016 to 2020 made such a proposal all-but-impossible to pass[6]. However, with the Democratic Party's victory in the 2020 legislative election, the adoption of this constitutional change may be possible.

Potential candidates

Democratic Party

The Democratic Party (Korean: 더불어민주당) is the ruling political party of South Korea following its victories in the 2017 presidential election and the 2020 National Assembly election. While the current party was technically founded in 2014[8], it should be understood as the current iteration of South Korea's long line of liberal parties dating back to the original Democratic Party that was founded in 1955. The party is considered to be something of a big tent party comprising both centrist[9] and liberal factions[10]. Politicians in the party generally support a social market economy with a strong social safety net, anti-corruption measures, direct democracy, and green policies.[11] On matters of foreign policy, the party supports reconciliation and eventual reunification with North Korea[12]. Incumbent president Moon Jae-in, a member of the party, is ineligible to run for reelection due to term limits. The party is particularly strong in North and South Jeolla.[13]

The following individuals have been mentioned as potential candidates of the Democratic Party for the 2022 presidential election:

Following and prior to his victory in the crucial district of Jongno in the 2020 legislative election, former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon has emerged as the unequivocal frontrunner for both the Democratic Party's nomination and the general election. Lee, who previously served as Governor of the liberal stronghold of South Jeolla and is celebrated for his expertise on Japanese relations[20][21], is not considered to be a member of Moon's faction of the party.[22][5] Gyeonggi Governor Lee Jae-Myung, who ran a left-wing populist campaign for president in 2017 while Mayor of Seongnam, has emerged as the second most popular prospective candidate across parties as a result of his well-received response to the 2019 coronavirus pandemic[5].

Others mentioned as potential Democratic candidates include Park Won-soon, the three-term Mayor of Seoul who was initially elected as an independent; Former Minister of Health and Welfare Rhyu Si-min, a 2007 presidential candidate who announced his retirement from politics in 2013 but has since become an internet commentator and chair of the Roh Moo-hyun Foundation[23]; Kim Kyoung-soo, a Moon ally and former member of the National Assembly who won the 2018 gubernatorial election in the traditionally conservative South Gyeongsang Province but has since been accused of involvement in the 2018 opinion rigging scandal in South Korea[19][24]; Kim Boo-kyum, a former member of the conservative Grand National Party who served as Minister of the Interior and Safety under Moon and is considered to be a political centrist.[18]

Ahn Hee-jung, the former Governor of South Chungcheong who came in second to Moon in the 2017 Democratic primary while running on a centrist platform that included moderate positions on national security, is ineligible to run due to his rape conviction and subsequent imprisonment.[25] Ahn had previously been seen as a likely successor to Moon owing to his cross-partisan appeal that included voters who later voted for centrist candidate Ahn Cheol-soo (no relation).[26]

United Future Party

The United Future Party (Korean: 미래통합당) is the current iteration of a long line of South Korean conservative parties. The party was formally established in 2020[27] following a merger of multiple conservative parties created in the fallout of the 2016 South Korean corruption scandal that led to the fall of conservative president Park Geun-hye and her Saenuri Party. In the 2017 presidential election, the party's predecessor nominated right-wing populist[28] Hong Jun-pyo, who went on to lose the election to liberal Moon Jae-in. The party lost further ground in the 2020 National Assembly election[29]. On matters of policy, politicians in the party generally support neoliberal economic policies (including support for chaebols[30], the industrial conglomerates that dominate the South Korean economy) and hold conservative positions on national security, including hawkish stances on North Korea[31]. The party is particularly strong in the southeastern Gyeongsang region.[32]

The following individuals have been mentioned as potential candidates of the United Future Party for the 2022 presidential election:

Former Prime Minister Hwang Kyo-ahn, a longtime prosecutor who entered politics as Minister of Justice and later became President of South Korea following Park Geun-hye's resignation, was seen as the most likely right-wing candidate for the 2022 presidential election[37]. However, his high-profile defeat in the 2020 South Korean legislative election in the crucial Jongno district versus Democratic former Prime Minister Lee Nak-yeon harmed his standing in national polling.[38] As a result, right-wing populist Hong Jun-pyo, the conservative opponent of Moon in 2017, has emerged as the leading conservative candidate in 2022[39].

Former Mayor of Seoul Oh Se-hoon, famous for resigning following the failure of the 2011 Seoul free lunch referendum, has also been mentioned as a possible presidential candidate following his defeat in the 2020 South Korean legislative election.[33] National Assembly member Yoo Seong-min, one of the most prominent conservative opponents of Park and a co-founder of the breakaway Bareun Party in 2016, is also mentioned as a possible candidate[36].

Justice Party

The Justice Party (Korean: 정의당) is a centre-left, social democratic and progressive party that was founded in October 2012.

People Party

The People Party (Korean: 국민의당) is the most recent party founded by centrist politician Ahn Cheol-soo, a former medical doctor and software executive who ran for president in 2017 and 2012. At one point, Ahn, who describes himself as a practioner of "new politics"[40], emerged as a major threat to liberal candidate Moon Jae-in in 2017 following the conservative Hong Jun-pyo's collapse in polling. However, Ahn finished in third place behind winner Moon and Hong with approximately 21.41% of the vote[41]. In the 2020 National Assembly election, the People Party faired poorly, winning a mere 3 seats. In comparison, Ahn's previous outfit, the similarly named People's Party, won an unexpectedly large 38 seats in the 2016 National Assembly election.[42]

The following individuals have been mentioned as potential candidates of the People Party for the 2022 presidential election:

  • Ahn Cheol-soo
    Ahn Cheol-soo

Ahn Cheol-soo, a medical doctor, software engineer, and former National Assembly member who is known for his centrist views, is considered a possible 2022 presidential candidate following his impressive performance in the 2017 presidential election[33]

References

  1. ^ a b Republic of Korea: Election for President IFES
  2. ^ "South Korea's governing party wins election by a landslide". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  3. ^ "Two former prime ministers to have big showdown in Jongno". www.donga.com. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  4. ^ McGrath, Ben. "South Korea's Democratic Party wins general election in landslide". www.wsws.org. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  5. ^ a b c "Lee Nak-yon leads polls of prospective presidential candidates". koreatimes. 2020-04-28. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  6. ^ a b South Korea's Moon calls for two-term presidency - Nikkei Asian Review
  7. ^ https://www.wsj.com/articles/south-korean-president-proposes-extending-term-limits-1521710703
  8. ^ "TBS". www.tbs.seoul.kr. Retrieved 2020-04-30.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  9. ^ https://www.rsis.edu.sg/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/CO19219.pdf
  10. ^ Park, S. Nathan. "South Korea Is a Liberal Country Now". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  11. ^ 더불어민주당
  12. ^ Fifield, Anna (2017-05-02). "South Korea's likely next president asks the U.S. to respect its democracy". Washington Post. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  13. ^ Larsen, Morten Soendergaard. "South Korea Holds World's First National Coronavirus Election". Foreign Policy. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  14. ^ "Poll: Fmr. PM Lee Nak-yon Leading Potential Contenders for 2022 Presidential Race". world.kbs.co.kr. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  15. ^ Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
  16. ^ "Will Prime Minister Lee Nak-yon make Korea's next President after Moon?". The Korea Post (in Korean). 2019-06-07. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  17. ^ "South Korea election win turns former premier into possible Moon rival". The Japan Times. 2020-04-21. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  18. ^ a b "Incumbent, former PMs narrow gap in poll of prospective presidential candidates". www.koreaherald.com. 2019-01-02. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  19. ^ a b 유청모 (2019-04-02). "Hwang leads poll of prospective presidential candidates for 3rd straight month". Yonhap News Agency. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
  20. ^ "Anti-Japan sentiment in Korea – The Diplomat". thediplomat.com. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  21. ^ "South Korean prime minister pick seen as point man on Japan". Nikkei Asian Review. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  22. ^ "PM Lee holds clear lead over opposition rivals". koreatimes. 2020-01-01. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  23. ^ "Politician-turned-star writer again declines to work for Cheong Wa Dae". koreatimes. 2019-01-27. Retrieved 2020-04-29.
  24. ^ "[Newsmaker] Police say lawmaker was in contact with comment rigger". www.koreaherald.com. 2018-04-20. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  25. ^ "Article expired". The Japan Times. 2013-05-10. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  26. ^ "[News analysis] Is Ahn Cheol-soo a threat to Moon Jae-in, or is his bubble about to burst?". english.hani.co.kr. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  27. ^ "'의석 113석' 미래통합당 출범…오늘 의원총회서 상견례". news.tvchosun.com (in Korean). 2020-02-18. Retrieved 2020-04-30.
  28. ^ Alexandra Field; Jo Shelley; James Griffiths. "South Korean opposition leader: Nukes are the only way to guarantee peace". CNN. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  29. ^ "South Korea's governing party wins election by a landslide". www.aljazeera.com. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  30. ^ https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/08/world/asia/south-korea-election-president.html
  31. ^ [Editorial] The United Future Party is just a throwback to Park Geun-hye’s Saenuri Party : Editorial & Opinion : News : The Hankyoreh
  32. ^ "COVID-19 Factor Powers South Korea's Ruling Party to Historic Victory". thediplomat.com. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  33. ^ a b c "Lee Nak-yon leads polls of prospective presidential candidates". koreatimes. 2020-04-28. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  34. ^ "Poll: Fmr. PM Lee Nak-yon Leading Potential Contenders for 2022 Presidential Race". world.kbs.co.kr. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  35. ^ "Hwang Kyo-ahn starts campaign to lead the LKP". koreajoongangdaily.joins.com. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  36. ^ a b c "Incumbent, former PMs narrow gap in poll of prospective presidential candidates". www.koreaherald.com. 2019-01-02. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  37. ^ 유청모 (2019-10-01). "Lee Nak-yon, Hwang Kyo-ahn lead poll of prospective presidential candidates". Yonhap News Agency. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  38. ^ Lee Nak-yon, Hwang Kyo-ahn lead poll of prospective presidential candidates | Yonhap News Agency
  39. ^ Lee Nak-yon leads polls of prospective presidential candidates
  40. ^ "Software Tycoon Turns Political Kingmaker in Korea Stalemate". www.bloomberg.com. Retrieved 2020-05-09.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  41. ^ "NATIONAL ELECTION COMMISSION". www.nec.go.kr. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
  42. ^ "People's Party falls into crisis as Ahn resigns". koreatimes. 2016-06-29. Retrieved 2020-05-09.
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