United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016

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United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016

← 2010 November 8, 2016 2022 →

  Richard Shelby, official portrait, 112th Congress (cropped 2).jpg 3x4.svg
Nominee Richard Shelby Ron Crumpton
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 1,335,104 748,709
Percentage 63.9% 35.8%

Alabama Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County Results
Shelby:
     50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Crumpton:
     50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

U.S. Senator before election

Richard Shelby
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Richard Shelby
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Alabama was held on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Alabama, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Republican Senator Richard Shelby won re-election to a sixth term in office. The primaries were held on March 1. Ron Crumpton, a marijuana legalization activist, was the Democratic nominee.[1] Shelby won re-election with 63.9% of the vote.

Background[edit]

Shelby was first elected to the Senate in 1986 as a Democrat and was easily re-elected in 1992 as such. He switched his party affiliation to Republican on November 9, 1994, one day after the Republicans won control of both houses in the midterm elections. He won his first full term as a Republican in 1998 by a large margin and faced no significant opposition in 2004 or 2010.

Republican primary[edit]

Following the divisive Republican primary in Mississippi ahead of the 2014 election in which Senator Thad Cochran was almost defeated, it had been speculated that Shelby could also face a Tea Party primary challenger, due to his lengthy tenure and support for federal largesse. However, that did not happen, in part due to his large campaign war chest, which stood at $19.4 million as of September 2015.[1] If Shelby had decided to retire, numerous high-profile Alabama Republicans were speculated to run, including U.S. Representatives Robert Aderholt, Mo Brooks, Bradley Byrne, Gary Palmer, Martha Roby, and Mike Rogers, State Treasurer Young Boozer, State Speaker Mike Hubbard, Lieutenant Governor Kay Ivey, State Senate President Pro Tempore Del Marsh, Secretary of State John Merrill, U.S. Appeals Court Judge William H. Pryor, Jr., former Governor Bob Riley, and Attorney General Luther Strange.[2][3][4] Shelby announced in January 2015 that he would run for re-election.[5]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jonathan McConnell
Individuals
  • John Rice, former State Senator, candidate for AL-03 in 1989 and candidate for Public Service Commission in 2006[10]
Organizations
Richard Shelby
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Organizations

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Marcus
Bowman
John
Martin
Shadrack
McGill
Jonathan
McConnell
Richard
Shelby
Undecided
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) January 29–30, 2016 1,299 ± 2.7% 1% 1% 2% 25% 55% 16%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) January 25–26, 2016 600 ± 4.0% 1% 1% 1% 9% 75% 13%
Thomas Partners Strategies (R-McConnell) December 2015 1% 2% 3% 15% 64% 21%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Shelby) November 2015 1% 2% 1% 5% 71% 20%

Primary results[edit]

Republican primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Shelby 505,586 64.91%
Republican Jonathan McConnell 214,770 27.58%
Republican John Martin 23,558 3.02%
Republican Marcus Bowman 19,707 2.53%
Republican Shadrack McGill 15,230 1.96%
Total votes 778,851 100.00%

Democratic primary[edit]

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

  • Ron Crumpton, marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014[8][15]
  • Charles Nana, process engineer[8][16]

Failed to qualify[edit]

Declined[edit]

Primary results[edit]

Democratic primary results[14]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Ron Crumpton 145,681 55.97%
Democratic Charles Nana 114,617 44.03%
Total votes 260,298 100.00%

General election[edit]

Candidates[edit]

  • Richard Shelby (R), incumbent Senator
  • Ron Crumpton (D), marijuana legalization activist and nominee for the State Senate in 2014
  • Charles Nana (D) (write-in), process engineer[19] (previously sought the Democratic nomination)

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[20] Safe R September 9, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[21] Safe R September 19, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[22] Safe R September 2, 2016
Daily Kos[23] Safe R September 16, 2016
Real Clear Politics[24] Safe R September 15, 2016

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Richard
Shelby (R)
Ron
Crumpton (D)
Undecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 1,131 ± 4.6% 57% 38% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 2016 971 ± 4.6% 58% 37% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 2016 722 ± 4.6% 57% 38% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 2016 621 ± 4.6% 58% 37% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 2016 503 ± 4.6% 56% 40% 4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 485 ± 4.6% 60% 36% 4%
Google Consumer Surveys October 18–20, 2016 474 ± 4.2% 71% 26% 3%

Results[edit]

United States Senate election in Alabama, 2016[25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Richard Shelby (incumbent) 1,335,104 63.96%
Democratic Ron Crumpton 748,709 35.87%
Write-in Others 3,631 0.17%
Total votes 2,087,444 100.00%
Republican hold

References[edit]

  1. ^ a b Dean, Charles (June 30, 2014). "Could the Tea Party challenge Sen. Richard Shelby? Sure, but there are $17 million reasons not to". AL.com. Retrieved July 1, 2014. 
  2. ^ a b c d e f g Livingston, Abby (February 6, 2013). "Farm Team: Long Line Forming for GOP Hopefuls Looking to Move Up in Alabama". Roll Call. Retrieved June 19, 2014. 
  3. ^ Cheney, Kyle (December 29, 2014). "16 in '16: The new battle for the Senate". Politico. Retrieved December 29, 2014. 
  4. ^ Jim Stinson (September 18, 2014). "Who is next? Five people who could be governor after the 2018 election". AL.com. Retrieved September 19, 2014. 
  5. ^ a b Gore, Leada (January 29, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby is in for 2016 and that changes Alabama's political landscape". AL.com. Retrieved November 6, 2015. 
  6. ^ a b c d Sims, Cliff (November 6, 2015). "Here's what you need to know about the four Republicans challenging Richard Shelby". Yellowhammer News. Retrieved November 8, 2015. 
  7. ^ Pathé, Simone (November 6, 2015). "Alabama's Richard Shelby Gets a Primary Challenge". Roll Call. Retrieved November 6, 2015. 
  8. ^ a b c Troyan, Mary (November 7, 2015). "Sen. Richard Shelby will face Republican challengers". Montgomery Advertiser. Retrieved November 6, 2015. 
  9. ^ Koplowitz, Howard (November 6, 2015). "Shadrack McGill among GOP challengers to Shelby". AL.com. Retrieved November 8, 2015. 
  10. ^ Moseley, Brandon (December 9, 2015). "John Rice Endorses McConnell". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016. 
  11. ^ Koplowitz, Howard (January 7, 2016). "Citizens United PAC endorses Jonathan McConnell for Senate". AL.com. Retrieved January 22, 2016. 
  12. ^ a b c d e "Richard Shelby Endorsements". Retrieved December 28, 2015. 
  13. ^ Moseley, Brandon (January 8, 2016). "BCA, Veterans Group Endorse Senator Richard Shelby for Re-Election". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved January 22, 2016. 
  14. ^ a b "2016 Primary Election Official Results, March 1, 2016". Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved May 13, 2016. 
  15. ^ Moseley, Brandon (April 15, 2015). "Crumpton Announces Bid to Unseat Shelby". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved April 15, 2015. 
  16. ^ Moseley, Brandon (November 6, 2015). "Shelby Faces Three Challengers". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved November 6, 2015. 
  17. ^ "Huntsville man kicks off campaign for U.S. Senate". WAFF. November 3, 2015. Retrieved November 6, 2015. 
  18. ^ Charles J. Dean (June 9, 2014). "Who are some Democrats who might run for governor in 2018". AL.com. Retrieved November 13, 2014. 
  19. ^ Moseley, Brandon (March 21, 2016). "Nana Says the Almighty Instructed Him to Run for Senate as a Write In Candidate". Alabama Political Reporter. Retrieved March 21, 2016. 
  20. ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for September 9, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 9, 2016. 
  21. ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016. 
  22. ^ "2016 Senate Ratings (September 2, 2016)". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 3, 2016. 
  23. ^ "Election Outlook: 2016 Race Ratings". Daily Kos. Retrieved September 17, 2016. 
  24. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 15, 2016. 
  25. ^ "Canvass of Results for the General Election held on November 8, 2016" (PDF). Alabama Secretary of State. Retrieved December 1, 2016. 

External links[edit]

Official campaign websites