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Statewide opinion polling for the June 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012

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Leading Republican 2012 primary candidate by state (parentheses indicate a shared lead, italics indicates polling data, non-italics indicates a primary win). Stars indicate a completed primary. States in gray have no polling data or no relevant data due to a leading candidate having withdrawn or declined to enter the race.
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Republican nominee before election

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Presumptive Republican nominee

Mitt Romney
Republican

This article contains opinion polling by U.S. state for the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries.

As of May 2012, both Ron Paul and Mitt Romney have led polls in multiple states. They have both also reached at least 20 percent in polls in multiple states. Before announcing that they would not run, Mike Huckabee and Sarah Palin were also leading polls in multiple states with numbers above 20 percent. Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Perry, and Rick Santorum were also able to lead polls in multiple states earlier in the race, but Cain suspended his campaign on December 3 after multiple allegations of sexual impropriety,[1] Bachmann dropped out on January 4, one day after her poor showing in the Iowa caucuses, in which she came in sixth place and received just 5 percent of the vote,[2] Perry dropped out on January 19 after finishing fifth in Iowa with just over 10 percent of the vote, finishing sixth in New Hampshire with less than 1 percent of the vote and with "lagging" poll numbers ahead of the South Carolina primary,[3] and Santorum suspended his campaign on April 10.[4] Newt Gingrich announced he would drop out of the race after a poor showing in the northeast on April 24.[5]

Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Jeb Bush of Florida, Chris Christie of New Jersey, Jim DeMint of South Carolina, Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin and John Thune of South Dakota all succeeded in leading polls in their home states at some point in 2011, although only Pawlenty actually launched a campaign. Pawlenty exited the race on August 14, one day after finishing third in Iowa's Ames Straw Poll, citing a lack of campaign funds.[6][7]

Polling for completed primaries

[edit]

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 172

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
SurveyUSA[8]
Margin of error: ±4.8%
Sample size: 439
Mar. 29 – Apr. 2, 2012 Mitt Romney
44%
Rick Santorum
23%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Ron Paul 12%, Other 1%, Undecided 8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times [9]
Margin of error:
Sample size: 465
Mar. 14–19, 2012 Mitt Romney
42%
Rick Santorum
23%
Newt Gingrich
12%
Ron Paul 10%, Other 2%, Undecided 9%, Will not vote 3%
Rasmussen Reports[10]
Margin of error: ±4%
Sample size: 750
Mar. 12, 2012 Mitt Romney
43%
Rick Santorum
23%
Newt Gingrich
15%
Ron Paul 8%, Someone other candidate 3%, Undecided 8%
Mitt Romney
55%
Rick Santorum
36%
Public Policy Institute[11]
Margin of error: ±7.4%
Sample size: 281
Feb. 21–28, 2012 Mitt Romney
28%
Rick Santorum
22%
Newt Gingrich
17%
Ron Paul 8%, Someone else 2%, Don't know 22%
Field[12]
Margin of error: ±7%
Sample size: 220
Feb. 11–18, 2012 Mitt Romney
31%
Rick Santorum
25%
Ron Paul
16%
Newt Gingrich 12%, Other 2%, Undecided 14%
Field[13]
Margin of error: ±7%
Sample size: 180
Feb. 2–10, 2012 Mitt Romney
38%
Rick Santorum
18%
Newt Gingrich
13%
Ron Paul 9%, Other 4%, Undecided 18%
SurveyUSA[14]
Margin of error: ±4.6%
Sample size: 479
Feb. 8–9, 2012 Mitt Romney
33%
Rick Santorum
31%
Newt Gingrich
17%
Ron Paul 9%, Other 3%, Undecided 7%
Public Policy Institute[15]
Margin of error: ±8.1%
Sample size: 286
Nov. 29 – Dec. 5, 2011 Newt Gingrich
30%
Mitt Romney
24%
Herman Cain
8%
Ron Paul 8%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Someone else 1%, Don't know 16%
Newt Gingrich
33%
Mitt Romney
25%
Ron Paul
9%
Michele Bachmann 7%, Rick Perry 4%, Rick Santorum 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Someone else 1%, Don't know 16%
Field[16]
Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 330
Nov. 15–27, 2011 Mitt Romney
26%
Newt Gingrich
23%
Herman Cain
9%
Ron Paul 5%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Other 2%, Undecided 26%
Public Policy Polling[17]
Margin of error: ±5.5%
Sample size: 316
Nov. 10–13, 2011 Newt Gingrich
33%
Mitt Romney
23%
Herman Cain
22%
Rick Perry 6%, Ron Paul 5%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Gary Johnson 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else/not sure 5%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[18]
Margin of error: ±4.5%
Sample size: 434
Oct. 30 – Nov. 9, 2011 Mitt Romney
27%
Herman Cain
20%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Ron Paul 6%, Rick Perry 3%, Michele Bachmann 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Undecided 22%, Other/refused 3%
Field[19]
Margin of error: ±5.6%
Sample size: 333
Sep. 1–12, 2011 Mitt Romney
28%
Rick Perry
20%
Sarah Palin
8%
Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, other/undecided 17%
Mitt Romney
30%
Rick Perry
22%
Michele Bachmann
7%
Newt Gingrich 7%, Ron Paul 7%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, other/undecided 19%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times[20]
Margin of error: ±4.5%
Sample size: 453
Aug. 17–28, 2011 Mitt Romney
22%
Rick Perry
22%
Ron Paul
11%
Michele Bachmann 10%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Herman Cain 4%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Rick Santorum 1%, Fred Karger 0%, Thaddeus McCotter 0%, Buddy Roemer 0%, someone else/undecided 16%
Field[21]
Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 322
Jun. 3–13, 2011 Mitt Romney
25%
Rudy Giuliani
17%
Sarah Palin
10%
Ron Paul 7%, Herman Cain 6%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Rick Perry 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson <0.5%, other/undecided 14%
Mitt Romney
30%
Sarah Palin
12%
Newt Gingrich
8%
Ron Paul 8%, Herman Cain 7%, Rick Perry 6%, Michele Bachmann 5%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Rick Santorum 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, Gary Johnson <0.5%, other/undecided 18%
Public Policy Polling[22]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 403
Jan. 28–30, 2011 Mitt Romney
22%
Newt Gingrich
18%
Sarah Palin
16%
Mike Huckabee 15%, Ron Paul 10%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[23]
Margin of error: ±5.5%
Sample size: 317
Oct. 29–31, 2010 Mitt Romney
25%
Sarah Palin
18%
Newt Gingrich
15%
Mike Huckabee 15%, Mike Pence 3%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, John Thune 1%, someone else/undecided 19%
Public Policy Polling[24]
Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400
Sep. 14–16, 2010 Mitt Romney
24%
Newt Gingrich
21%
Sarah Palin
18%
Mike Huckabee 17%, Ron Paul 6%, someone else 5%, undecided 9%
Public Policy Polling[25]
Margin of error: ±4.8%
Sample size: 417
May 21–23, 2010 Newt Gingrich
28%
Mitt Romney
25%
Sarah Palin
18%
Mike Huckabee 13%, Ron Paul 10%, undecided 6%
Magellan Strategies[26]
Margin of error: ±3.97%
Sample size: 612
Feb. 25, 2010 Mitt Romney
31%
Sarah Palin
18%
Mike Huckabee
13%
Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, other candidate 3%, undecided 12%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 26

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[27]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 403

Apr. 26–29, 2012 Mitt Romney
66%
Ron Paul
25%
Undecided 9%
Public Policy Polling[28]

Margin of error: ±4.5%
Sample size: 470

Nov. 28–30, 2011 Newt Gingrich
37%
Ron Paul
12%
Mitt Romney
11%
Michele Bachmann 10%, Herman Cain 10%, Rick Perry 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, Gary Johnson 1%, Someone Else 10%
Public Policy Polling[29]

Margin of error: ±5.0%
Sample size: 382

Jun. 16–19, 2011 Sarah Palin
20%
Michele Bachmann
18%
Mitt Romney
17%
Newt Gingrich 9%, Ron Paul 9%, Herman Cain 8%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Someone else/Not sure 9%
Michele Bachmann
25%
Mitt Romney
22%
Newt Gingrich
11%
Ron Paul 10%, Tim Pawlenty 9%, Herman Cain 8%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Someone else/Not sure 10%
Public Policy Polling[30]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 545

Nov. 10–13, 2010 Sarah Palin
23%
Mike Huckabee
22%
Newt Gingrich
16%
Mitt Romney 12%, Ron Paul 9%, Tim Pawlenty 3%, John Thune 3%, Mitch Daniels 2%, undecided 10%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 50

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Quinnipiac University[31]

Margin of error: ±4.3%
Sample size: 513

Apr. 3–9, 2012 Mitt Romney
51%
Rick Santorum
14%
Newt Gingrich
9%
Ron Paul 7%, Someone else 1%, Wouldn't vote 4%, Don't know/No answer 14%
Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics[32]

Margin of error: ±5.9%
Sample size: 289

Feb. 9–11, 2012 Mitt Romney
36%
Rick Santorum
19%
Newt Gingrich
11%
Ron Paul 11%, Someone else 11%, None of them 3%, Don't know 8%
Quinnipiac University[33]

Margin of error: ±4.6%
Sample size: 464

Jan. 10–16, 2012 Mitt Romney
40%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Rick Santorum
14%
Ron Paul 12%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Rick Perry 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, DK/NA 13%
Mitt Romney
41%
Rick Santorum
15%
Newt Gingrich
14%
Ron Paul 12%, Rick Perry 2%, Wouldn't vote 3%, DK/NA 13%
Quinnipiac University[34]

Margin of error: ±4.2%
Sample size: 548

Nov. 9–14, 2011 Mitt Romney
29%
Newt Gingrich
22%
Herman Cain
12%
Ron Paul 6%, Jon Huntsman 4%, Michele Bachmann 3%, Rick Perry 3%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else 2%, wouldn't vote 2%, DK/NA 16%
Quinnipiac University[35]

Margin of error: ±2.9%
Sample size: 1,186

Oct. 5–10, 2011 Mitt Romney
28%
Herman Cain
17%
Ron Paul
11%
Rick Perry 7%, Newt Gingrich 5%, Michele Bachmann 4%, Jon Huntsman 2%, Rick Santorum 1%, someone else/undecided 23%
Public Policy Polling[36]

Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 300

Jul. 15–18, 2011 Chris Christie
38%
Mitt Romney
13%
Michele Bachmann
12%
Ron Paul 9%, Rick Perry 8%, Herman Cain 5%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Jon Huntsman 1%, someone else/not sure 8%
Mitt Romney
22%
Michele Bachmann
21%
Ron Paul
11%
Rick Perry 10%, Herman Cain 8%, Newt Gingrich 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Jon Huntsman 3%, someone else/not sure 12%
Mitt Romney
21%
Michele Bachmann
18%
Sarah Palin
16%
Ron Paul 10%, Rick Perry 10%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Herman Cain 5%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/not sure 5%
Public Policy Polling[37]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Jan. 6–9, 2011 Mike Huckabee
18%
Mitt Romney
18%
Newt Gingrich
15%
Sarah Palin 14%, Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, John Thune 2%, someone else/undecided 19%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 23

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[38]

Margin of error: ±5.7%
Sample size: 300

Dec. 10–12, 2011 Newt Gingrich
39%
Mitt Romney
14%
Gary Johnson
11%
Ron Paul 8%, Rick Perry 8%, Michele Bachmann 6%, Rick Santorum 3%, Jon Huntsman 2%, someone else/not sure 9%
Public Policy Polling[39]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 400

Jun. 23–26, 2011 Michele Bachmann
22%
Mitt Romney
22%
Sarah Palin
14%
Herman Cain 10%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 4%, Jon Huntsman 3%, someone else/not sure 12%
Michele Bachmann
27%
Mitt Romney
23%
Herman Cain
12%
Ron Paul 8%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Jon Huntsman 4%, someone else/not sure 13%
Michele Bachmann
21%
Mitt Romney
18%
Gary Johnson
13%
Sarah Palin 11%, Herman Cain 10%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Ron Paul 5%, someone else/not sure 9%
Public Policy Polling[40]

Margin of error: ±5.2%
Sample size: 357

Feb. 4–6, 2011 Sarah Palin
20%
Mike Huckabee
17%
Mitt Romney
16%
Newt Gingrich 13%, Gary Johnson 13%, Tim Pawlenty 6%, Ron Paul 4%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 8%
Sarah Palin
22%
Mike Huckabee
18%
Mitt Romney
16%
Newt Gingrich 15%, Tim Pawlenty 7%, Ron Paul 6%, Mitch Daniels 3%, someone else/undecided 12%
Public Policy Polling[41]

Margin of error: ±5.4%
Sample size: 333

Feb. 18–20, 2010 Mitt Romney
33%
Sarah Palin
32%
Mike Huckabee
18%
undecided 17%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 5, 2012
Delegates: 28

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Nielson Brothers Polling[42]

Margin of error: ±5.68%
Sample size: 298

Dec. 6–9, 2011 Ron Paul
22%
Newt Gingrich
19%
Michele Bachmann
18%
Rick Perry 15%, Mitt Romney 10%, undecided 16%
Public Policy Polling[43]

Margin of error: ±4.5%
Sample size: 484

Jan. 28–30, 2011 Sarah Palin
21%
Mike Huckabee
19%
Mitt Romney
17%
Newt Gingrich 12%, Ron Paul 7%, Tim Pawlenty 5%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 19%
John Thune
37%
Sarah Palin
12%
Mitt Romney
12%
Mike Huckabee 11%, Newt Gingrich 10%, Ron Paul 5%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Mitch Daniels 1%, undecided 10%

Winner: Mitt Romney
Primary date: June 26, 2012
Delegates: 40

Poll source Date 1st 2nd 3rd Other
Public Policy Polling[44]

Margin of error: ±4.9%
Sample size: 406

Jul. 8–10, 2011 Mitt Romney
63%
Jon Huntsman
10%
Michele Bachmann
6%
Sarah Palin 5%, Herman Cain 4%, Ron Paul 4%, Rick Perry 4%, Newt Gingrich 3%, Tim Pawlenty 1%
Mitt Romney
60%
Jon Huntsman
12%
Michele Bachmann
8%
Ron Paul 5%, Herman Cain 4%, Rick Perry 4%, Newt Gingrich 2%, Tim Pawlenty 2%, Someone else/Undecided 4%
Mitt Romney
82%
Jon Huntsman
14%
Someone else/Undecided 4%
Deseret News/KSL[45]

Margin of error: ±4.4%
Sample size: 496

Feb. 8–10, 2011 Mitt Romney
72%
Jon Huntsman
15%
Lake Tribune/Mason Dixon[46]

Margin of error: ±6.7%
Sample size: 215

Apr. 26–28, 2010 Mitt Romney
73%
Sarah Palin
9%
Ron Paul
5%
Newt Gingrich 4%, Mike Huckabee 1%, Tim Pawlenty 1%, other candidate 3%, undecided 4%
Dan Jones Poll[47]

Margin of error: ±6.2%
Sample size: 254

Apr. 27, 2009 Mitt Romney
55%
Jon Huntsman
32%
other candidate/undecided 13%

See also

[edit]

References

[edit]
  1. ^ James Oliphant, "Herman Cain drops out of presidential race" (December 3, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
  2. ^ Sarah Wheaton, "Bachmann Says She Will Not Continue in the Race" (January 4, 2012). New York Times.
  3. ^ Zeleny, Jeff; Shear, Michael D. (January 19, 2012). "Perry to End Bid for Presidency". The Caucus. The New York Times. Retrieved January 19, 2012.
  4. ^ Blake, Aaron; Henderson, Nia-Malika (April 10, 2012). "Rick Santorum drops out of the presidential race". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 19, 2012.
  5. ^ "Gingrich Drops Out of the Race". Election Coverage 2012. Retrieved 1 May 2012.
  6. ^ Kate O'Hare, "Tim Pawlenty quits after third-place straw-poll finish" (August 14, 2011). Los Angeles Times.
  7. ^ Robert J. Vickers, "Pawlenty to headline state GOP meeting" (January 3, 2012). The Patriot-News.
  8. ^ SurveyUSA
  9. ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
  10. ^ Rasmussen Reports
  11. ^ Public Policy Institute
  12. ^ Field
  13. ^ Field
  14. ^ SurveyUSA
  15. ^ Public Policy Institute
  16. ^ Field
  17. ^ Public Policy Polling
  18. ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
  19. ^ Field
  20. ^ USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times
  21. ^ Field
  22. ^ Public Policy Polling
  23. ^ Public Policy Polling
  24. ^ Public Policy Polling
  25. ^ Public Policy Polling
  26. ^ Magellan Strategies
  27. ^ Public Policy Polling
  28. ^ Public Policy Polling
  29. ^ Public Policy Polling
  30. ^ Public Policy Polling
  31. ^ "Quinnipiac University". Archived from the original on 2012-09-12. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
  32. ^ "Rutgers-Eagleton Institute of Politics" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 2012-03-12. Retrieved 2012-11-30.
  33. ^ Quinnipiac University
  34. ^ Quinnipiac University
  35. ^ Quinnipiac University
  36. ^ Public Policy Polling
  37. ^ Public Policy Polling
  38. ^ Public Policy Polling
  39. ^ Public Policy Polling
  40. ^ Public Policy Polling
  41. ^ Public Policy Polling
  42. ^ Nielson Brothers Polling
  43. ^ Public Policy Polling
  44. ^ Public Policy Polling
  45. ^ Deseret News/KSL
  46. ^ Lake Tribune/Mason Dixon
  47. ^ Dan Jones Poll