2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota
 | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 60.6% (voting eligible)[1] | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| |||||||||||||||||
 U.S. Senate election results map. Blue denotes counties/districts won by Heitkamp. Red denotes those won by Berg. | |||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||
| Elections in North Dakota |
|---|
 |
The 2012 United States Senate election in North Dakota took place on November 6, 2012, concurrently with the 2012 U.S. presidential election as well as other elections to the United States Senate and House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic-NPL U.S. Senator Kent Conrad decided to retire instead of running for re-election to a fifth term. Though each party endorses a single candidate in state political conventions in the spring, North Dakota determines actual ballot access for the general election in a statewide primary election that was held June 12, 2012.[2] Former Democratic-NPL Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp ran for and won the open seat in a close-fought victory.[3]
Democratic-NPL primary
The North Dakota Democratic-NPL Party held their state convention March 16–18, 2012, in Grand Forks. Former state attorney general and 2000 Democratic gubernatorial nominee Heidi Heitkamp was uncontested in seeking the official party nomination and was the only member of the party elected to appear on the state primary ballot.[4]
Candidates
Declared
- Heidi Heitkamp, former Attorney General of North Dakota and nominee for Governor of North Dakota in 2000[5]
Withdrew
- Thomas Potter, Presbyterian pastor and former professor of finance at UND[6] (dropped out February 2012)[7]
Declined
- Kent Conrad, incumbent U.S. Senator[8]
- Pam Gulleson, former State Representative and former chief of staff and former state director for former Senator Byron Dorgan[9]
- Kristin Hedger, nominee for North Dakota Secretary of State in 2006[10]
- Joel Heitkamp, brother of Heidi Heitkamp, radio personality and former State Senator[11]
- Roger Johnson, President of the National Farmers Union and former North Dakota Agriculture Commissioner[12]
- Tim Mathern, State Senator and nominee for Governor in 2008[13]
- Earl Pomeroy, former U.S. Representative[14]
- Tracy Potter, State Senator and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2010[13]
- Tim Purdon, U.S. Attorney[15]
- Jasper Schneider, USDA rural development State Director[13][16]
- Mac Schneider, State Senator[10]
- Ryan Taylor, Minority Leader of the North Dakota Senate[17]
Republican primary
North Dakota Republicans endorsed U.S. Representative Rick Berg at their convention, though general election ballot access is determined by a statewide primary election held on June 12, 2012. In contrast to state political tradition, declared candidate Duane Sand did not seek the party endorsement, trying instead to defeat Berg on the June primary ballot.[18]
Candidates
Declared
- Rick Berg, U.S. Representative[19][20]
- Duane Sand, former North and South Dakota Director for Americans for Prosperity[21]
Declined
- Al Carlson, North Dakota state house majority leader[22]
- Tony Clark, state public service commissioner[23]
- Kevin Cramer, state public service commissioner[23]
- Jack Dalrymple, North Dakota governor and 1992 Republican nominee for U.S. Senate[24]
- Cory Fong, state tax commissioner[25]
- Shane Goettle, U.S. Senator John Hoeven's state director[26]
- Tony Grindberg, state senator[27]
- Bob Harms, North Dakota Republican Party treasurer[13]
- Brian Kalk, state public service commissioner (running for House)[28]
- Kim Koppelman, state representative[29]
- Ed Schafer, former U.S. agriculture secretary and former North Dakota governor[30]
- Kelly Schmidt, North Dakota treasurer[31]
- Wayne Stenehjem, North Dakota attorney general[32]
- John Warford, mayor of Bismarck[33]
- Drew Wrigley, North Dakota lieutenant governor[24]
Endorsements
Endorsements for Rick Berg
- Individuals
- Katie Anderson, Mayor of Jamestown
- John Hoeven, United States Senator from North Dakota
- Kay Bailey Hutchison, United States Senator from Texas
- Mike Hynek, Mayor of Stanley
- Dennis Johnson, Mayor of Dickinson
- Nancy Johnson, State Representative
- Ward Koeser, Mayor of Williston
- Rich Mattern, Mayor of West Fargo
- Ed McConnell, Mayor of Casselton
- George Nodland, State Senator
- Mitt Romney
- Brent Sanford, Mayor of Watford City
- Mike Schatz, State Representative
- Vicky Steiner, State Representative
- Jim Sturdevant, Mayor of Wahpeton
- Rich Wardner, State Senate Majority Leader
- John Warford, Mayor of Bismarck
- Curt Zimbelman, Mayor of Minot
- Organizations
- Susan B. Anthony List
- National Rifle Association
- North Dakota Farm Bureau
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Rick Berg |
Duane Sand |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon | June 4–6, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 73% | 16% | 11% |
| Essman Research | May 3–8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 65% | 21% | 14% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Rick Berg | 67,849 | 66.41 | |
| Republican | Duane Sand | 34,209 | 33.48 | |
| Republican | Write-Ins | 111 | .41 | |
| Total votes | 102,281 | 100 | ||
General election
Candidates
- Rick Berg (R), U.S. Representative[19][20]
- Heidi Heitkamp (D), former Attorney General of North Dakota and nominee for Governor in 2000[5]
- Bill Kiefer (I), businessman[35]
Debates
The first debate between Berg and Heitkamp was broadcast on Prairie Public Television at 9 PM on Monday, October 15, 2012.[36]
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 15, 2012
- Complete video of debate, C-SPAN, October 25, 2012
Fundraising
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heidi Heitkamp (D) | $5,341,362 | $5,318,232 | $23,130 | $0 |
| Rick Berg (R) | $6,501,693 | $6,129,026 | $316,641 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[37][38] | ||||
Top contributors
| Heidi Heitkamp | Contribution | Rick Berg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motley Rice LLC | $41,750 | Verizon Communications | $43,666 |
| Council for a Livable World | $26,705 | Elliott Management Corporation | $29,413 |
| Weitz & Luxenberg | $22,400 | NORPAC | $26,700 |
| Robbins Geller Rudman & Dowd LLP | $15,050 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| Medcenter One Health Systems | $12,000 | Rurban Financial | $22,700 |
| American Association for Justice | $10,833 | Hess Corp | $22,500 |
| Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld | $10,750 | NACCO Industries | $22,000 |
| American Federation of Teachers | $10,300 | Marathon Oil | $21,000 |
| Patton Boggs LLP | $10,250 | Berkshire Hathaway | $20,500 |
| American Postal Workers Union | $10,000 | Koch Industries | $20,000 |
Top industries
| Heidi Heitkamp | Contribution | Rick Berg | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lawyers/law firms | $433,811 | Oil & gas | $433,949 |
| Leadership PACs | $284,500 | Leadership PACs | $277,163 |
| Women's issues | $111,593 | Financial institutions | $274,941 |
| Lobbyists | $103,635 | Retired | $218,909 |
| Retired | $100,812 | Real estate | $171,686 |
| Agribusiness | $78,450 | Agribusiness | $163,583 |
| Public sector unions | $73,800 | Insurance | $140,011 |
| Financial institutions | $64,713 | Commercial banks | $127,140 |
| Education | $60,960 | Health professionals | $114,438 |
| Building trade unions | $52,500 | Mining | $106,804 |
Independent expenditures
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced that it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.[41]
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[42] | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[43] | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[44] | Tilt R | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics[45] | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Heidi Heitkamp (D) |
Rick Berg (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pharos Research | November 2–5, 2012 | 503 | ± 4.1% | 47% | 49% | — | 4% |
| Pharos Research | October 26–28, 2012 | 752 | ± 3.6% | 50% | 48% | — | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 26–28, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | October 21–24, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | — | 7% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 807 | ± 3.4% | 49% | 48% | — | 3% |
| The Mellman Group (D-Heitkamp) | October 16–19, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 42% | — | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 17–18, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 50% | — | 5% |
| Essman Research | October 12–15, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 40% | 50% | — | 10% |
| Mason-Dixon | October 3–5, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | — | 6% |
| DFM Research (D) | September 24–27, 2012 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 44% | — | 8% |
| DFM Research (D) | July 24–26, 2012 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 50% | 44% | — | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 10–11, 2012 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 40% | 49% | 2% | 8% |
| Mason-Dixon | June 4–6, 2012 | 625 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 46% | — | 7% |
| Essman Research | May 3–8, 2012 | 500 | ± 4.3% | 44% | 51% | — | 5% |
| DFM Research (D) | April 18–26, 2012 | 478 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 44% | 1% | 6% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic–NPL | Heidi Heitkamp | 161,337 | 50.24% | −18.26% | |
| Republican | Rick Berg | 158,401 | 49.32% | +20.04% | |
| Write-Ins | 1,406 | 0.44% | |||
| Majority | 2,936 | 0.92% | − | ||
| Turnout | 322,509 | ||||
| Democratic–NPL hold | Swing | ||||
See also
- United States Senate elections, 2012
- United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota, 2012
- North Dakota gubernatorial election, 2012
References
- ^ Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|dead-url=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ "North Dakota election calendar" (PDF). Secretary of State. July 2011. Retrieved August 17, 2011.
- ^ Kate Nocera (November 7, 2012). "Heidi Heitkamp scores upset win in North Dakota". Politico. Retrieved April 17, 2014.
- ^ "ND Democrats set their fall legislative ticket". Newsday. Associated Press. March 17, 2012. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
- ^ a b Daum, Kristen M (November 8, 2011). "SPECULATION NO MORE: Heitkamp announces U.S. Senate run". Flickertales from The Hill. Archived from the original on July 16, 2012. Retrieved November 8, 2011.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|dead-url=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Nodland, Chad (October 25, 2011). "Tom Potter: I'm Running For Senate". NorthDecoder.com. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Smith, Nick (February 24, 2012). "Potter drops Senate bid". The Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- ^ Haga, Chuck (January 18, 2011). "Conrad will not run for re-election in 2012". Grand Forks Herald. Archived from the original on December 16, 2012. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
{{cite web}}: Unknown parameter|dead-url=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ Miller, Joshua (September 26, 2011). "Ex-State Rep. Pam Gulleson Launches House Bid". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ a b "State Sen. Schneider: 2012 U.S. Senate race not now 'in the cards'". Grand Forks Herald. August 1, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011. (subscription required)
- ^ Catanese, David (November 1, 2011). "Heitkamp telling Dems she's running for Senate". Politico. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- ^ Miller, Tricia (January 18, 2011). "Retirements Shuffle 2012 Senate Landscape". Roll Call. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
- ^ a b c d Beitsch, Rebecca (January 18, 2011). "Neither party lacking Senate contenders". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved January 18, 2011.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle; Toeplitz, Shira (April 11, 2011). "West Virginia, North Dakota Senate Race Ratings Change". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Sullivan, Sean (April 28, 2011). "Club For Growth Slams Berg". National Journal. Retrieved April 29, 2011.
- ^ Rodgers, Ben (January 19, 2011). "Schneider says he hasn't ruled out running for Conrad's Senate seat". The Jamestown Sun. Retrieved January 19, 2011.
- ^ "Democrat Taylor joins race for N.D. governor". Grand Forks Herald. December 12, 2011. Retrieved December 19, 2011. (subscription required)
- ^ Daum, Kristen (March 29, 2012). "Divide within North Dakota's GOP creates friction in endorsement process". Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved March 29, 2012.
- ^ a b Sobel, Julie (May 16, 2011). "Berg Enters N.D. Senate Race". National Journal: Hotline On Call. Archived from the original on November 4, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
{{cite news}}: Unknown parameter|dead-url=ignored (|url-status=suggested) (help) - ^ a b Toeplitz, Shira (May 16, 2011). "House Freshman Berg Will Run for Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ "Sand Announces Entry into North Dakota Senate Race" (Press release). Standard Newswire. August 8, 2011. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Toeplitz, Shira (May 3, 2011). "N.D. GOP Expecting Competitive House Race". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ a b Catanese, David (April 26, 2011). "N.D. lawmakers unite behind Berg for Senate". Politico. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ a b Smith, Nick (November 3, 2011). "Dalrymple to run in 2012". Williston Herald. Retrieved November 3, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (October 13, 2011). "N.D. tax commissioner opts against congressional bid in 2012". Flickertales from The Hill. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (November 29, 2011). "Goettle declares as 4th GOP contender in 2012 U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Retrieved November 29, 2011.
- ^ Beitsch, Rebecca (May 13, 2011). "Sand starts Senate campaign committee". Bismarck Tribune. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Trygstad, Kyle (May 20, 2011). "Kalk to Run for House Instead of Senate in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved May 20, 2011.
- ^ Daum, Kristen M (December 5, 2011). "West Fargo legislator seeks GOP nod in packed U.S. House race". Flickertales from The Hill. Retrieved December 5, 2011.
- ^ Miller, Tricia (December 27, 2010). "North Dakota GOPers Target Conrad Seat". Roll Call. Retrieved January 17, 2011.
- ^ Finneman, Teri (February 20, 2012). "Kelly Schmidt to seek third term as North Dakota treasurer". The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- ^ Gonzales, Nathan L (April 26, 2011). "Berg Senate Run Likely in North Dakota". Roll Call. Retrieved October 25, 2011.
- ^ Bunk, Matt (June 1, 2011). "In Focus with Bismarck Mayor John Warford". Great Plains Examiner. Retrieved February 25, 2012.
- ^ a b http://results.sos.nd.gov/resultsSW.aspx?text=Race&type=SW&map=CTY
- ^ http://www.wday.com/event/article/id/68540
- ^ PBS to broadcast North Dakota, Minnesota debates
- ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota HEITKAMP, HEIDI". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
- ^ "2012 House and Senate Campaign Finance for North Dakota BERG, RICHARD A". fec.gov. November 26, 2012. Retrieved December 17, 2012.
- ^ NDS2, Center for Responsive Politics
- ^ contributors by industry (opensecrets.org)
- ^ Haberman, Maggie (October 2, 2012). "Crossroads launches $16 million buy in Senate, presidential contests". Politico.com. Retrieved October 2, 2012.
- ^ "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
- ^ "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved August 28, 2018.
External links
- North Dakota Secretary of State
- Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
- Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
- Candidate issue positions at On the Issues
- Official campaign websites (Archived)