Draft:2028 United States presidential election

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For related races, see 2028 United States elections.

2028 United States presidential election
← 2024 November 7, 2028 2032 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
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2028 electoral map, based on the results of the 2020 census
Incumbent President

[to be determined]


The 2028 United States presidential election will be the 61st quadrennial presidential election, scheduled for Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

The winner of this election will be inaugurated on January 20, 2029.

Background[edit]

Procedure[edit]

Main article: United States presidential election § Procedure

Article Two of the United States Constitution states that for a person to serve as president, the individual must be a natural-born citizen of the United States, be at least 35 years old, and have been a United States resident for at least 14 years. The Twenty-second Amendment forbids any person from being elected president more than twice. If incumbent president Joe Biden or former president Donald Trump is reelected after the 2024 presidential election, neither of them will be eligible to run for a third term due to term limits established by the Twenty-second Amendment; In accordance with Section 1 of the Twentieth Amendment, their term will end at noon on January 20, 2029, potentially making this the first open Presidential election since the 2016 election. Major party candidates seek the nomination through a series of primary elections that select the delegates who choose the candidate at the party's national convention. The national convention chooses a vice presidential running mate to form that party's ticket. The nominee for president usually picks the running mate, who is then ratified by the delegates at the party's convention.

The general election in November is an indirect election, in which voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors then directly elect the president and vice president. Election offices are dealing with increased workloads and public scrutiny, so officials in many key states have sought for more funds to hire more personnel, improve security, and extend training. This demand emerges at a moment when numerous election offices are dealing with an increase in retirements and a flood of public record demands, owing in part to the electoral mistrust planted by former President Donald Trump's loss in the 2020 election.

Electoral map[edit]

Electoral partisanship[edit]

Further information: Red states and blue states

Approximate partisan lean of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia on the presidential level. The shading of each state denotes the winner's two-party vote share, averaged between the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. States that flipped in 2020 are colored grey. In recent presidential elections, most states are not competitive, since their demographics keep them solidly behind one party. Because of the nature of the Electoral College, this means that swing states—states that are typically very competitive and "swing" between the Democratic and Republican parties—are vital to winning the presidency. These include states in the Midwestern United States, such as Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, and states in the Sun Belt, such as Nevada, Arizona, and Georgia. Due to gradual demographic shifts, some swing states such as Iowa, Ohio, and Florida have shifted significantly towards Republicans, favoring them in statewide and local elections. Meanwhile, states like Colorado, Minnesota and Virginia have moved noticeably towards Democrats, and they have become the dominant political force there.

The traditional Democratic electoral coalition, securing the "blue states" for Democratic presidential candidates, is mainly composed of minority groups (especially African-Americans and Latinos), women, educated professionals, and urban voters. Working class voters were also a mainstay of the Democratic coalition since the days of the New Deal, but since the 1970s, many have defected to Republicans as the Democratic Party became significantly more educated, diverse, and culturally liberal. Conversely, the traditional Republican coalition that dominates many "red states" is mainly composed of rural white voters, evangelicals, the elderly, and non-college educated voters. Republicans have also historically performed well with suburban, middle class voters since the 1950s, but this bloc has drifted away from them in recent years due to the rise of the Tea Party movement and later the Make America Great Again movement, a brand of right-wing populism cultivated by former President Donald Trump. The acceleration of this trend has been credited with tipping the 2020 presidential election in favor of Democrat Joe Biden, since the incumbent Trump was historically unpopular in the suburbs for a Republican candidate, underperforming there significantly.

Candidates[edit]

Democratic Party[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Democrats who have expressed interest

Potential candidates[edit]

Potential Democratic candidates

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Pete
Buttigieg 		Kamala
Harris 		Gavin
Newsom 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights January 16-18, 2024 499 (RV) ± 3.4% 13% 33% 11% 43%[b]

Republican Party[edit]

Publicly expressed interest[edit]

Republicans who have expressed interest

Potential candidates[edit]

Potential Republicans

Declined to be candidates[edit]

Opinion polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s) administered Sample size[a] Margin of error Tucker
Carlson 		Ron
DeSantis 		Nikki
Haley 		Vivek
Ramaswamy 		Other/
Undecided
Echelon Insights January 16-18, 2024 832 (RV) ± 3.4% 6% 27% 19% 18% 30%[c]

Independent Candidates[edit]

Potential candidates[edit]

Potential Independents

Other Potential Candidates[edit]

Declared intent to run[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ a b Key:
    A - all adults
    RV - registered voters
    LV - likely voters
    V - unclear
  2. ^ JB Pritzker and Gretchen Whitmer with 3%. John Fetterman, Josh Shapiro, and Raphael Warnock with 2%. Andy Beshear and Wes Moore with 1%. Someone else with 4%. Unsure with 14%.
  3. ^ Greg Abbott with 3%. Kari Lake and Glenn Youngkin with 2%. Tom Cotton, Byron Donalds, Josh Hawley, Brian Kemp, Elise Stefanik, and JD Vance with 1%. Katie Britt with 0%. Someone else with 4% Unsure with 14%.

References[edit]

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