Jump to content

Potential superpower: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
Enthusiast10 (talk | contribs)
1,806 edits
Adding source, please consensus to agree to protect Russia as potential superpower on discussions
Line 9: Line 9:
{{legend|{{{color2|#FF4F00}}}|[[Russia]]}}]]
{{legend|{{{color2|#FF4F00}}}|[[Russia]]}}]]


Some academics have speculated on nations that are '''potential superpowers''' in the [[21st century]], mentioning several candidates. Whether the [[People's Republic of China]],<ref>[http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/08/news/fighter.php]</ref> [[India]],<ref>[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11571348/site/newsweek/ India Rising]</ref> [[Russia]],<ref>http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_russia_hill.aspx</ref> or the [[European Union]],<ref>[http://www.globalpowereurope.eu/]</ref> will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the [[United States of America]] currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a [[superpower]]; although it is a matter of debate as to whether it is a [[hegemon]].<ref name="by Edward A. Kolodziej and Roger E. Kanet">{{cite web |title= From Superpower to Besieged Global Power
Some academics have speculated on nations that are '''potential superpowers''' in the [[21st century]], mentioning several candidates. Whether the [[People's Republic of China]],<ref>[http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/02/08/news/fighter.php]</ref> [[India]]<ref>[http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/11571348/site/newsweek/ India Rising]</ref> or the [[European Union]],<ref>[http://www.globalpowereurope.eu/]</ref> will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the [[United States of America]] currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a [[superpower]]; although it is a matter of debate as to whether it is a [[hegemon]].<ref name="by Edward A. Kolodziej and Roger E. Kanet">{{cite web |title= From Superpower to Besieged Global Power
|publisher=''University Georgia Press ''
|publisher=''University Georgia Press ''
|url=http://www.ugapress.uga.edu/0820329770.html
|url=http://www.ugapress.uga.edu/0820329770.html
Line 15: Line 15:
<ref name="Salon.com">{{cite web |title=Who's the superpower now? |publisher=''Salon.com''
<ref name="Salon.com">{{cite web |title=Who's the superpower now? |publisher=''Salon.com''
|url=http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Asian_Poll_Foresees_US_Losing_Superpower_Status_To_China_999.html |accessdate=2008-05-12}}</ref><ref name="Austinchronicle">{{cite web |title=Superpower?, Really? |publisher=''Austinchronicle''
|url=http://www.spacewar.com/reports/Asian_Poll_Foresees_US_Losing_Superpower_Status_To_China_999.html |accessdate=2008-05-12}}</ref><ref name="Austinchronicle">{{cite web |title=Superpower?, Really? |publisher=''Austinchronicle''
|url=http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/column?oid=oid%3A494048 |accessdate=2007-06-27}}</ref> Another topic of debate regards the status of the [[Russian Federation]] as either a [[superpower]]<ref>http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929</ref> or a potential superpower <ref>http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_russia_hill.aspx</ref>. [[Brazil]],<ref name="The Associated Press">{{cite web |title=Booming Brazil could be world power soon |publisher=''The Associated Press'' |url=http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5ioU_KKWHoEt6NGusC0cvCt9VhLNQD903O1L80 |accessdate=2008-05-16}}</ref> is considered to be a [[Potential great powers|potential great power]].<ref name="Encarta">{{cite web |title=Great Powers |publisher=''Encarta Encyclopedia'' |url=http://encarta.msn.com/encyclopedia_761590309/Great_Powers.html |accessdate=2008-05-16}}</ref>
|url=http://www.austinchronicle.com/gyrobase/Issue/column?oid=oid%3A494048 |accessdate=2007-06-27}}</ref>


The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the [[1980s]] some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that [[Japan]] would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge [[Gross Domestic Product|GDP]], and high [[economic growth]] at that time.<ref>[http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html?promoid=googlep time.com] 1988 article "Japan From Superrich To Superpower"</ref>
The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the [[1980s]] some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that [[Japan]] would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge [[Gross Domestic Product|GDP]], and high [[economic growth]] at that time.<ref>[http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,967823,00.html?promoid=googlep time.com] 1988 article "Japan From Superrich To Superpower"</ref>

Revision as of 22:17, 20 June 2008

The present day governments to be called, or to remain, a potential superpower for the 21st century.
  United States
  China
  European Union
  India
  Russia

Some academics have speculated on nations that are potential superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning several candidates. Whether the People's Republic of China,[1] India[2] or the European Union,[3] will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate. The most common belief held is that only the United States of America currently fulfills the criteria to be considered a superpower; although it is a matter of debate as to whether it is a hegemon.[4] [5][6] Another topic of debate regards the status of the Russian Federation as either a superpower[7] or a potential superpower [8]. Brazil,[9] is considered to be a potential great power.[10]

The record of such predictions has not been accurate. For example, in the 1980s some political and economic analysts erroneously predicted that Japan would eventually accede to superpower status, due to its large population, huge GDP, and high economic growth at that time.[11]

European Union

European Union

The European Union has been called an emerging superpower by academics.[12][13][14][15] T.R. Reid,[16] Andrew Reding[17] and Mark Leonard,[18][19] believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week).[20] On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi[21] states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains. Additionally, It is argued by commentators that full political integration is not required for the European Union to wield international influence: that its apparent weaknesses constitute its real strengths (as of its low profile diplomacy and the opsetion of the rule of law[22]) and that the EU represents a new and potentially more successful type of international actor than traditional ones [5]; however, it is uncertain if the effectiveness of such an influence would be equal to that of a politically integrated superpower. (e.g. United States)

People's Republic of China

People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China receives continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status,[23][24] and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts.[25][26][27][28] Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue," and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario," "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time."[29] Although China's GDP 'shrank' when the World Bank reported in late 2007 that they had overestimated China's economy by about 40%, the finding was based on a PPP estimation of the Chinese GDP, upon which the above estimations do not depend.[30]

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China may become too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk in China: Fragile Superpower.[31] Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.[32]

India

Republic of India
Companies such as Infosys have brought on India's IT revolution

Newsweek and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.[33][34][35] With 9.4% GDP growth in 2007[36], Goldman Sachs predicts that as 700 million Indians are expected to move to cities by 2050, the Indian economy may surpass the United States's (in US$) by 2043.[37]

"India has moved onto a much faster growth trajectory than the bank had previously expected, fueled by strong and steady productivity gains in its legions of new factories, which are producing everything from brassieres to cars." [37]

India's strength lies in its demographics; More than 50% of India's population is under 25.[37] Dr Narendra Jadhav, a principal advisor to the RBI and a former advisor to the executive director at the IMF, says "India has a great potential to become an economic super power because of its growing young population."[38] A young population coupled with the second largest English-speaking population in the world could give India an advantage over China.[39]

Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that

"It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".[40]

China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.[41]

With one of the largest defence budgets in the world, India possesses nuclear weapons, intermediate-range ballistic missiles, and is one of only 5 countries to with an aircraft carrier. It has successfully developed a Ballistic Missile Defense system, becoming only the fourth country to do so, after Israel, Russia and US. In 2007, India became the fourth nation in the world to complete atmospheric reentry for Manned Space Mission, an indication of its recent scientific progress.[42]

Russia

Russian Federation

The Russian Federation is a suggested potential candidate for achieving superpower status in the twenty-first century due to its fast-growing economy, energy superpower status and the size of its military. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security would be immense" (Rosefielde 2005:1). Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom" (Rosefielde 2005:9).

In May 2007, the U.S. Commission on Security and Cooperation held special hearings devoted to Russia. They came to the conclusion that Russia is returning to the international arena as an influential political and economic power. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, said: "Russia has restored its position of a large political and economic force recently", also adding that "Russia’s strengthening has been accompanied by a cool down in its relations with the U.S." Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said that the West "has few instruments of influence on Russia left." [43]

Alexander Golts of the St. Petersburg Times argues that Putin's confrontations with the US on nuclear issues are in pursuit of regaining superpower status for Russia.[44]

In a more recent report by ABC News, a senior U.S. official asserted that "Russia is once again indisputably the number two military power in the world, second only to the United States".[45] Russia's military strength has risen substantially under former President Putin, having recently produced the world's most powerful conventional bomb[46] and the worlds most advanced anti-ballistic missile system [47] to date. Additionally, its forces are currently in the midst of a $189 billion ($302 billion PPP) modernization plan. Russia's defence minister, Sergei Ivanov, said that he wanted to exceed the Soviet army in combat readiness.[48]

Mike Ritchie of industry analysts Energy Intelligence says "Russia was always a superpower that used its energy to win friends and influence among its former Soviet satellites. Nothing has really changed much. They are back in the same game, winning friends and influencing people and using their power to do so."[49]

Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower and a nuclear superpower due to its vast amounts of natural resources and large nuclear arsenal mostly leftover from the former Soviet Union.[50][51][52]

There are a myraid of obstacles to Russia gaining superpower status, such as a rapidly shrinking sphere of influence lost to the EU and China[53] and a rapidly shrinking and aging population [54] [55] [56] [57]. A shrinking workforce leads generally leads to a stagnating or shrinking economy. Russia's demographic problems have led to seperatism and revanchist movements in Siberia, a valuable strategic and resource-rich region. In addition, Russia is currently only the tenth largest economy in the world, and is approximately twelve times smaller than the US economy. Russia is heavily reliant on resource extraction, especially fossil fuels, for its economy. [58].

See also

References

  1. ^ [1]
  2. ^ India Rising
  3. ^ [2]
  4. ^ "From Superpower to Besieged Global Power". University Georgia Press . Retrieved May 2008. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  5. ^ "Who's the superpower now?". Salon.com. Retrieved 2008-05-12. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  6. ^ "Superpower?, Really?". Austinchronicle. Retrieved 2007-06-27. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  7. ^ http://www.kommersant.com/page.asp?id=768929
  8. ^ http://www.brookings.edu/articles/2002/spring_russia_hill.aspx
  9. ^ "Booming Brazil could be world power soon". The Associated Press. Retrieved 2008-05-16. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  10. ^ "Great Powers". Encarta Encyclopedia. Retrieved 2008-05-16. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  11. ^ time.com 1988 article "Japan From Superrich To Superpower"
  12. ^ "Robert J. Guttman, Europe in the New Century: visions of an emerging superpower". Retrieved 2007-05-26.
  13. ^ www.monash.ac.uk
  14. ^ www.wilsoncenter.org
  15. ^ www.globalpowereurope.eu
  16. ^ REID, T.R., The United States of Europe: The New Superpower and the End of American Supremacy, New York: Penguin Books, 2004, 305p.
  17. ^ "Andrew Reding, Chicago Tribune, EU next superpower". Retrieved 2007-03-18.
  18. ^ LEONARD, M., Why Europe Will Run the Twenty-First Century
  19. ^ Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century, Review, Foreign Affairs, Accessed March 11, 2007
  20. ^ Europe: the new superpower by Mark Leonard, Irish Times, Accessed March 11, 2007
  21. ^ Cohen-Tanugi, L., "The End of Europe" in Foreign Affairs, 84, (2005), 6, 55-67.
  22. ^ "The Project for a New European Century". Retrieved 2006-06-28.
  23. ^ Visions of China, CNN Specials, Accessed March 11, 2007
  24. ^ China builds a superpower fighter, IHT, Accessed March 11, 2007
  25. ^ US-China Institute :: news & features :: china as a global power
  26. ^ www.carnegieendowment.org
  27. ^ www.getabstract.com
  28. ^ www.au.af.mil
  29. ^ China to become world’s largest economy by 2038, Nottingham professor says, School of Contemporary Chinese Studies, University of Nottingham
  30. ^ China's economic muscle 'shrinks' BBC News 17 December 2007
  31. ^ China: Fragile Superpower, Description, Oxford University Press, Accessed March 11, 2007
  32. ^ www.nottingham.ac.uk
  33. ^ India Rising, Newsweek, Accessed March 11, 2007
  34. ^ India welcomed as new sort of superpower, IHT, Accessed March 11, 2007
  35. ^ India: Emerging as Eastern or Western Power?, YaleGlobal, Accessed March 11, 2007
  36. ^ At 9.4%, GDP growth second fastest-ever
  37. ^ a b c http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/01/24/business/rupee.php
  38. ^ Advantage India: Growing young population
  39. ^ [3], The Rise of India, ABC News
  40. ^ [4], Rediff India, Published March 29, 2006
  41. ^ China, India Superpower? Not so Fast!, YaleGlobal, Accessed March 11, 2007
  42. ^ Hindustan Times Giant step in space as capsule returns
  43. ^ Washington Acknowledges Russia as Superpower Kommersant Retrieved on March 26, 2008
  44. ^ St. Petersburg Times: "Dreaming of New Conflicts"
  45. ^ Rice: Russia's Military Moves 'a Problem' ABC News Oct. 14, 2007
  46. ^ Russia tests giant fuel-air bomb BBC News Retrieved on March 18, 2008
  47. ^ S-400 missile defense systems to start defending Moscow July 1 RIA Novosti Retrieved on March 21, 2008
  48. ^ Big rise in Russian military spending raises fears of new challenge to west The Guardian February 9 2007
  49. ^ Russia: A superpower rises again[December 13, 2006]
  50. ^ Goldman, Marshall I. (October 11, 2006). "Behold the new energy superpower". International Herald Tribune. Retrieved 2007-10-08.
  51. ^ Chance, Matthew (Junde 27, 2007). "Eye on Russia: Russia's resurgence". Cable News Network. Retrieved 2007-10-08. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help)
  52. ^ "Russia: A superpower rises again". Retrieved 2006-06-10.
  53. ^ http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/27/magazine/27world-t.html?pagewanted=3
  54. ^ http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5056672.stm
  55. ^ http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/9133-2.cfm
  56. ^ http://www.cdi.org/russia/johnson/9133-2.cfm
  57. ^ http://zik.com.ua/en/news/2008/06/02/138514
  58. ^ http://www.nytimes.com/2006/04/18/business/worldbusiness/18ruble.html
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Potential_superpower&oldid=220652438"