2020 Nevada Democratic presidential caucuses: Difference between revisions

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! colspan=2 style="text-align:center;" | Second<br>alignment{{efn|Vote count after votes for candidates who did not get at least 15% of the vote in that precinct are reallocated to the voter's second choice.}}
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Revision as of 07:05, 23 February 2020

2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses

← 2016 February 22, 2020 2024 →
← NH
SC →

48 Democratic National Convention delegates (36 pledged, 12 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the number of county convention delegates (CCDs) won[a]
Reporting
50%
as of February 22, 9:49 pm PST
 
Candidate Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Pete Buttigieg
Home state Vermont Delaware Indiana
Estimated delegate count 13 2

 
Candidate Elizabeth Warren Tom Steyer Amy Klobuchar
Home state Massachusetts California Minnesota

The 2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses took place in Nevada, United States, on February 22, 2020, with early voting on February 14–18, and was the third nominating contest in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 election, following the New Hampshire primary the week before. The Nevada caucuses are a closed caucus, with the state awarding 48 delegates, of which 36 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the caucuses.

Senator Bernie Sanders is projected to have won the caucuses.[2]

Procedure

Delegate allocation[3][1]
Type Del.
CD1 5
CD2 6
CD3 6
CD4 6
PLEO 5
At-large 8
Pledged total 36

Caucus votes were initially slated to be counted on the Shadow app that caused significant problems during the counting of 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses. As a consequence of those difficulties, the caucuses instead used Google Forms running on 2,000 iPads to send in results.[4] Some volunteers believed there was a lack of training on the iPads, which could result in malfunctions.[5] Early voting for the caucuses took place from February 15 to 18. In addition to Google Forms, early voters filled out a paper ballot that allowed them to rank candidates according to preference.[6] Early voting ballots would only be counted if voters rank at least three candidates, and were transmitted to voter's home precincts to be counted alongside election day votes.[citation needed]

Precinct caucuses were held starting at 10:00 a.m. local time (PST), with voting starting at noon on February 22. In the closed caucuses, candidates must meet a 15% viability threshold within an individual precinct in order to be considered viable and 15% at the congressional district or statewide level, with supporters of non-viable candidates at precinct caucuses then allowed to support one of the remaining viable candidates. Of the 36 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention, 23 are allocated on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses, with between 5 and 6 allocated to each of the state's four congressional districts. The precinct caucuses also elect delegates to county conventions based on the results of the vote in each precinct. Of the remaining 13 pledged delegates, another 5 will be allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates) in addition to 8 at-large pledged delegates, and delegates to the national convention will be distributed proportionally based on the number of county delegates.[1]

The county conventions will subsequently be held on April 18, 2020, to choose delegates for the state Democratic convention. On May 30, 2020, the state Democratic convention will meet to vote on the unpledged delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 36 pledged delegates Nevada sends to the national convention will be joined by 12 unpledged PLEO delegates (five members of the Democratic National Committee, five members of Congress, of which two are Senators and three are U.S. Representatives, one governor, and one distinguished party leader). These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[1]

On March 20, 2019, the Nevada Democratic Party released its 2020 delegate selection plan, introducing four days for early voting from February 15 to 18, 2020 and, like the Iowa caucuses, "virtual caucuses" on February 16 and 17 to allow those unable to physically attend to vote in addition to releasing raw vote totals. In both cases, caucusgoers' ranked presidential preferences will be sent to their precinct and counted on the day of the physical caucus. After county conventions following the previous caucuses left open the risk of a candidate winning a majority of delegates at the state conventions despite trailing among district delegates, all unpledged delegates will now be allocated on the basis of the results of the precinct caucuses on February 22.[7]

In late August 2019, the Democratic National Committee ordered both the Iowa and Nevada Democratic state parties to scrap their plans for "virtual caucuses" because of security concerns.[8]

Candidates

In order to get on the "caucus preference card" (ballot), candidates had to file with the State committee and pay a $2,500 fee by New Year's Day 2020. The following candidates qualified:[9]

There is also an uncommitted option on the ballot.[10]

Campaign

Twenty-three candidates visited the state during 2019. The largest event of that year was the November 17 "First in the West" "cattle call", which was attended by fourteen candidates.[11]

For a second caucus in a row, the Culinary Workers Union declined to endorse a candidate.[12] This came after it circulated a flyer among members criticizing Sanders and Warren's support for single-payer healthcare, which it argued would leave members with worse benefits.[13] The Las Vegas Sun endorsed both Klobuchar and Biden, saying that they think nominating Sanders "guarantees a Trump second term."[14]

The following was spent on television advertising:[15]

  • Tom Steyer: $13.55 million
  • Bernie Sanders: $1.54 million
  • Elizabeth Warren: $1.51 million
  • Pete Buttigieg: $1.26 million
  • Joe Biden: $1.16 million
  • Amy Klobuchar: $838,740

Even though the Republican caucus was canceled, President Trump held several campaign events in Nevada anyway[16][17][18], and expressed doubts that the computer voting methods used in Democratic primaries would work properly.

February 14–18 primary

With encouragement from the remaining campaigns, the five-day early voting began on February 14. Hundreds of polling places were open throughout the state, with candidate events taking place near to them.[19][20] Turnout was large, with close to 12,000 showing up the first day[21] and greater numbers over the weekend, February 15–16. It was estimated that up to 60% of all participants would vote early[22] and 77,000 voters took the opportunity to do so.[23] As approximately 84,000 voters voted in the caucus in 2016, and approximately 110,000 voters voted in 2008, this puts the trajectory for voter turn out in the 2020 caucus above 2016 and near 2008.[24]

There were rumors that those early voters who did not fill out the second- or third-choice ballot ovals might not have their votes counted.[25][26]

February 19–22 caucus

With the early voting phase over, the ninth official debate between the candidates on the ballot took place on February 19.[27] Steyer, who is in double digits in several polls in Nevada, did not qualify for the debate,[28] while Michael Bloomberg, who is not on the ballot, did.[29]

The doors opened for the caucus at 9 AM PST and the caucus itself an hour later. There was controversy about the NDAs that the people working at the caucuses were made to sign.[30] Nevada State Democratic Party Chairman William McCurdy stated that signing the non-disclosure agreements was voluntary, but this was disputed. Several people quit rather than do so.[31]

Polling

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated
Dates
polled
Bernie
Sanders
Joe
Biden
Pete
Buttigieg
Elizabeth
Warren
Tom
Steyer
Amy
Klobuchar
Others Undecided[d]
270 to Win Feb 21, 2020 Feb 14–21, 2020 30.0% 16.7% 14.0% 13.7% 9.7% 9.7% 1.3%[e] 4.9%
RealClear Politics Feb 21, 2020 Feb 19–21, 2020 32.5% 16.0% 16.0% 14.0% 9.0% 9.5% 2.0%[f] 1.0%
FiveThirtyEight Feb 21, 2020 until Feb 21, 2020[g] 30.5% 14.4% 15.3% 11.8% 10.2% 8.9% 11.0%[h] [i]
Average 31.0% 15.7% 15.1% 13.2% 9.6% 9.4% 4.7%[j] 2.0%
   – Debate qualifying poll as designated by the Democratic National Committee
Tabulation of individual polls of the 2020 Nevada Democratic Caucus
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[k]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Amy
Klobuchar
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Tom
Steyer
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Undecided
Data for Progress[1][l] Feb 19–21, 2020 1010 (LV) ± 2.8% 16% 15% 8% 35% 8% 16% 2%[m]
AtlasIntel Feb 19–21, 2020 517 (LV) ± 4.0% 11% 14% 5% 38% 11% 9% 7%[n] 5%
Emerson College Feb 19–20, 2020 425 (LV) ± 4.7% 16% 17% 11% 30% 10% 12% 4%[o]
Feb 15–18, 2020 Early voting occurred in the Nevada caucuses[32]
Beacon Research/Tom Steyer Feb 12–15, 2020 600 (LV) 19% 13% 7% 24% 18% 10% 4%[p] 6%
Data for Progress[2][q] Feb 12–15, 2020 766 (LV) ± 3.4% 14% 15% 9% 35% 10% 16% 2%[r]
WPA Intelligence/Las Vegas Review-Journal/AARP Nevada Feb 11–13, 2020 413 (LV) ± 4.8% 18% 10% 10% 25% 11% 13% 5%[s] 8%
Feb 11, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race after close of polls
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
Suffolk University/USA Today[3] Jan 8–11, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 19% 2% 8% 4% 18% 8% 11% 4% 4%[t] 22%
MyersResearch/Strategic Services/Yang 2020[u] Jan 6–8, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 28% 2% 6% 29% 8% 14% 5% 2%[v] 4%
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 635 ± 4.0% 23% 3% 6% 2% 17% 12% 12% 4% 13%[w] 6%
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
YouGov/CBS News Nov 6–13, 2019 708 (RV) ± 4.7% 33% 2% 9% 4% 2% 23% 2% 21% 1% 2%[x]
Fox News Nov 10–13, 2019 627 ± 4.0% 24% 1% 8% 4% 2% 18% 5% 18% 3% 4%[y] 10%
Emerson Polling Oct 31 – Nov 2, 2019 451 (LV) ± 4.6% 30% 1% 5% 5% 1% 19% 3% 22% 5% 10%[z]
Mellman Group/The Nevada Independent Oct 28 – Nov 2, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 29% 1% 7% 3% 3% 0% 19% 4% 19% 3% 3%[aa] 9%
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
CNN/SSRS Sep 22–26, 2019 324 (LV) ± 7.1% 22% 2% 4% 5% 1% 0% 22% 4% 18% 3% 3%[ab] 13%
Suffolk University/USA Today Sep 19–23, 2019 500 (LV) 23% 2% 3% 4% 0% 1% 14% 3% 19% 3% 4%[ac] 21%
YouGov/CBS News Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 563 (LV) ± 4.9% 27% 1% 4% 6% 0% 3% 29% 2% 18% 1% 9%[ad]
Gravis Marketing Aug 14–16, 2019 382 (RV) ± 5.0% 25% 3% 5% 9% 2% 0% 10% 6% 15% 2% 13%[ae] 9%
Change Research Aug 2–8, 2019 439 (LV) ± 4.7% 26% 0% 7% 10% 1% 2% 22% 3% 23% 1% 5%[af]
Morning Consult Jul 1–21, 2019 749 (RV) ± 4.0% 29% 3% 6% 11% 1% 3% 23% 1% 12% 3% 10%[ag]
Jul 9, 2019 Steyer announces his candidacy
Monmouth University Jun 6–11, 2019 370 (LV) ± 5.1% 36% 2% 7% 6% 1% 2% 13% 19% 2% 3%[ah] 8%
Change Research May 9–12, 2019 389 (LV) 29% 2% 13% 11% 1% 4% 24% 12% 1% 4%[ai]
Apr 25, 2019 Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019 Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Emerson College Mar 28–30, 2019 310 (LV) ± 5.5% 26% 2% 5% 9% 2% 10% 23% 10% 3% 9%[aj]

Partial results

Bernie Sanders is projected to win the Nevada caucuses with around half of the county convention delegates, along with a plurality of both the first and second alignment votes.[33]

2020 Nevada Democratic caucuses[33][34]
Candidate First
alignment
Second
alignment[ak]
County
convention
delegates[c]
Pledged
national
convention

delegates[1][a]
Votes % Votes % Number %
Bernie Sanders 18,799 33.6 21,864 40.0 3,564 46.6 11
Joe Biden 9,565 17.1 9,921 18.1 1,471 19.3 5
Pete Buttigieg 8,872 15.9 10,046 18.4 1,175 15.4 3
Elizabeth Warren 7,427 13.3 6,633 12.1 785 10.3
Amy Klobuchar 5,463 9.8 4,179 7.6 345 4.5
Tom Steyer 4,903 8.8 1,864 3.4 288 3.8
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 68 0.1 4 0.0 2 0.0
Tulsi Gabbard 190 0.3 0 0.0 4 0.1
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 332 0.6 23 0.0 2 0.0
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 17 0.0 17 0.0 1 0.0
John Delaney (withdrawn) 7 0.0 14 0.0 0 0.0
Uncommitted 241 0.4 179 0.4 5 0.1
Total[al] 55,884 100 54,744 100 7,642 (of 14,884)[35] 100 15 (of 36)

Notes

  1. ^ a b c The number of "pledged national convention delegates" is determined proportionally to the presidential candidate's total number of CCDs won statewide and in each of the state's four congressional districts; but only for those presidential candidates who manage to qualify by winning at least a 15% share of the CCDs:
    • Either statewide (which may result in PLEO/at-large elected pledged national convention delegates)
    • Or in one of the four specific districts (which will result in a number of congressional district elected pledged national convention delegates).
    All presidential candidates winning less than a 15% share of CCDs statewide and in CD1, CD2, CD3, CD4, will win 0 pledged national convention delegates. Due to the fact that the pledged delegates are allocated according to the CCD-result from each of the 6 specific election races of the caucus (mentioned above), it is possible for a candidate to win the highest statewide CCD count without necessarily also winning the highest overall amount of pledged national convention delegates.[1]
    For example, Barack Obama won more pledged national convention delegates compared to Hillary Clinton in the 2008 Nevada Democratic caucuses, despite the fact that Clinton had won a higher CCD statewide total than Obama.
  2. ^ Final alignment votes counted after votes for candidates with lower than 15% of the vote in that precinct are reallocated.
  3. ^ a b County convention delegates (CCDs) are used to calculate how many pledged national convention delegates each candidate win in each district.
  4. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  5. ^ Gabbard with 1.3%; Bloomberg not reported
  6. ^ Gabbard with 2.0%; Bloomberg not reported
  7. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  8. ^ Bloomberg with 9.1%; Gabbard with 1.9%
  9. ^ Individual candidate numbers add up to more than 100%
  10. ^ Bloomberg with 3.0%; Gabbard with 1.7%
  11. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  12. ^ By the time of this poll, Data for Progress, which has worked with both the Sanders and Warren campaigns, had endorsed Warren
  13. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  14. ^ Gabbard with 3%; "other" with 4%
  15. ^ Gabbard with 2%; someone else with 2%
  16. ^ others with 4%
  17. ^ By the time of this poll, Data for Progress, which has worked with both the Sanders and Warren campaigns, had endorsed Warren
  18. ^ Gabbard with 2%
  19. ^ Gabbard with 0%; Other with 5%
  20. ^ Delaney and Gabbard with 1%; Patrick with 0%; Bennet and Williamson with no voters; other with 0%; refused with 2%
  21. ^ Sponsored by a presidential candidate's campaign
  22. ^ Gabbard with 1%; "someone else" with 1%
  23. ^ Bloomberg and Gabbard with 2%; Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, and Patrick with 0%; others with 0%; none with 8%
  24. ^ Castro with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Messam, Sestak, and Williamson with 0%; "Someone else" with 1%
  25. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Castro with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Delaney, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; others with 1%; none with 2%
  26. ^ Bennet, Castro, and Gabbard with 1%; Bullock, Delaney, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 7%
  27. ^ Castro, Gabbard and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Delaney and Sestak with 0%
  28. ^ Gabbard, Ryan, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, and Sestak with 0%
  29. ^ Bennet, Bullock, Castro and Gabbard with 1%; de Blasio, Delaney, Messam, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; "refused" with 1%
  30. ^ Castro with 2%; de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, and Sestak with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Messam, and Williamson with 0%; others with 2%
  31. ^ Bennet, de Blasio, and Gabbard with 2%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gillibrand, Inslee, Ryan, and Williamson with 1%
  32. ^ Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Inslee with 1%; Bennet, Booker, Bullock, Hickenlooper, and Williamson with 0%
  33. ^ Castro with 2%; Bullock, de Blasio, and Ryan with 1%; others with 4%
  34. ^ Castro, Gabbard, and Williamson with 1%; Bullock, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Messam, and Ryan with <1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Delaney, Gillibrand, Gravel, Moulton, and Swalwell with 0%
  35. ^ Abrams, Castro, Gabbard, and Swalwell with 1%; Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, and Ryan with 0%
  36. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Castro and Gillibrand with 1%; Hickenlooper and Inslee with 0%; others with 6%
  37. ^ Vote count after votes for candidates who did not get at least 15% of the vote in that precinct are reallocated to the voter's second choice.
  38. ^ With 470 out of 2,097 (22%) of precincts reporting.

References

  1. ^ a b c d e "Nevada Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  2. ^ Nilsen, Ella (February 22, 2020). "Bernie Sanders just won the Nevada caucuses". Vox. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  3. ^ "LIVE RESULTS: Bernie Sanders wins the Nevada caucus, a critical victory fuelling a striking delegate advantage". Business Insider Australia. February 23, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2010.
  4. ^ Musil, Steven (February 13, 2020). "Nevada Democrats to use iPads loaded with Google Forms to track caucuses". Cnet.
  5. ^ Barrón-López, Laura (February 16, 2020). "'A complete disaster': Fears grow over potential Nevada caucus malfunction". Politico. Retrieved February 16, 2020.
  6. ^ Jessie, Faith (February 14, 2020). "Nevada Caucus early voting begins Saturday, will use paper ballots". 3 News Las Vegas. Retrieved February 15, 2020.
  7. ^ Messerly, Megan (March 19, 2019). "After bitter 2016 cycle, Nevada Democrats overhaul caucus process to build a bigger tent". The Nevada Independent. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  8. ^ Korecki, Natasha (August 31, 2019). "DNC throws Iowa, Nevada caucuses into confusion". Politico.
  9. ^ "NV DEMS ANNOUNCE CANDIDATES TO APPEAR ON 2020 FIRST IN THE WEST CAUCUS PREFERENCE CARD" (Press release). Nevada Democratic Party. January 2, 2020.
  10. ^ Bailey, Holly (February 17, 2020). "Campaigns warn of chaos ahead of the Nevada caucuses". The Washington Post. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  11. ^ Appleton, Rory (November 18, 2019). "National Democrats make their pitches at Nevada party dinner". Las Vegas Review-Journal.
  12. ^ Bradner, Eric (February 13, 2020). "Nevada's powerful Culinary Union won't endorse in Democratic presidential race". CNN.
  13. ^ Messerly, Megan (February 11, 2020). "In new flyer, Culinary Union warns members Sanders would 'end' their health care if elected president". The Nevada Independent.
  14. ^ Concha, Joe (February 13, 2020). "Las Vegas newspaper endorses Biden and Klobuchar, scorches 'non-starter' Sanders". The Hill. Retrieved February 14, 2020.
  15. ^ Reid J. Epstein, Adriana Ramic (February 21, 2020). "What's at Stake in the Nevada Caucuses". The New York Times.
  16. ^ Chalfant, Morgan (February 21, 2020). "Trump rallies supporters in Nevada, capping four-day trip to the West". The Hill.
  17. ^ Kim, Catherine (February 22, 2020). "Trump sows doubt in Nevada caucuses results before they're even out". Vox.
  18. ^ Moran, Rick (February 16, 2020). "Trump Continues to Troll Democrats by Holding Nevada Rally a day Before Caucuses". PJ Media.
  19. ^ "Biden, Buttigieg, Steyer, Klobuchar Campaign in Nevada". Bloomberg. February 17, 2020.
  20. ^ DeHaven, James (February 15, 2020). "Big turnout, slim staffing blamed for long lines on first day of early caucusing in Reno". Reno Gazette-Journal.
  21. ^ Olvera, Kaitlyn (February 16, 2020). "NV Dems: More than 26,000 voters participate in first 2 days of early voting for Nevada Democratic Caucus". 8 News Now.
  22. ^ Paz, Isabella Grúllon (February 14, 2020). "Another Caucus is Coming. But Nevada Will Look Completely Different". The New York Times. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  23. ^ Staff, Sun (February 19, 2020). "More than 77,000 Democrats cast early votes in Nevada - Las Vegas Sun Newspaper". lasvegassun.com.
  24. ^ Press, Associated (February 22, 2016). "Nevada Democratic caucus turnout lower than in 2008 - Las Vegas Sun Newspaper". lasvegassun.com.
  25. ^ Edelman, Adam (February 20, 2020). "Caucus chaos again? Experts fear vote-counting problems in Nevada". NBC News.
  26. ^ 8NewsNow Staff (February 22, 2020). "Nevada State Democratic Party: 1,744 early voting ballots deemed invalid". 8 News Now.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  27. ^ Smith, Allan (February 6, 2020). "NBC News, MSNBC announce 5 moderators for Democratic debate in Las Vegas". NBC News. Retrieved February 5, 2020.
  28. ^ Rakich, Nathaniel (February 18, 2020). "6 Candidates Have Made The Nevada Debate - Including Bloomberg". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved February 18, 2020.
  29. ^ Levin, Sam (February 19, 2020). "'Gloves will be off': Nevada debate could be pivotal for Bloomberg". The Guardian. Retrieved February 20, 2020.
  30. ^ Reed Albergotti, Isaac Stanley-Becker, James Pace-Cornsilk (February 22, 2020). "Nevada Democratic Party moves to muzzle election workers". The Washington Post.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  31. ^ Kevin Conlon, Dianne Gallagher, Dan Merica (February 22, 2020). "Nevada Democratic Party asks caucus volunteers to sign confidentiality agreements". CNN.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  32. ^ "Important Election Dates & Deadlines in Nevada". Rock the Vote. February 2, 2018. Retrieved January 7, 2020.
  33. ^ a b "Nevada Caucus Results 2020". Politico. February 23, 2020. Retrieved February 23, 2020.
  34. ^ "Nevada Caucus 2020: Live Results Updates". The New York Times. February 22, 2020. Retrieved February 22, 2020.
  35. ^ "NSDP Precinct Delegate Allocation - Final" (PDF). Nevada Democratic Party. Retrieved February 22, 2020.

External links