2020 South Carolina Democratic primary

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2020 South Carolina Democratic primary

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63 Democratic National Convention delegates (54 pledged, 9 unpledged)
The number of pledged delegates won is determined by the popular vote
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Candidate Joe Biden Bernie Sanders Tom Steyer
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The 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary will take place in South Carolina, United States, on February 29, 2020, as the fourth nominating contest in the Democratic Party presidential primaries for the 2020 election, following the Nevada caucuses the week before. The South Carolina primary is an open primary, with the state awarding 63 delegates, of which 54 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.

Voters can absentee vote in-person until February 28, 2020, at 5:00 pm local time (EST). Voters can also submit absentee votes by mail. Election officials recommend applying to absentee vote by-mail a week in advance so that voters have time to receive their absentee ballot and mail it in by election day.[1][2]

Procedure[edit]

Primary elections are scheduled to be held on Saturday, February 29, 2020. In the open primary, candidates must meet a viability threshold of 15 percent at the congressional district or statewide level in order to be considered viable. The 54 pledged delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention allocated proportionally on the basis of the results of the primary. Of these 54 pledged delegates, 35 are allocated on the basis of the results within each congressional district, between four and eight are allocated to each of the state's seven congressional districts and another seven are allocated to party leaders and elected officials (PLEO delegates), in addition to 12 at-large pledged delegates. These delegate totals do not account for pledged delegate bonuses or penalties from timing or clustering.[3]

The precinct reorganization meetings will subsequently be held on Saturday, March 14, 2020, to choose delegates for the county conventions, followed by county conventions between Wednesday, March 25, and Tuesday, April 7, to elect delegates to the state Democratic convention. On March 30, 2020, the state Democratic convention will meet in Columbia to vote on the unpledged delegates to send to the Democratic National Convention. The 54 pledged delegates South Carolina sends to the national convention will be joined by nine unpledged PLEO delegates (seven members of the Democratic National Committee and two members of Congress, of which both are U.S. Representatives).[3]

Candidates[edit]

There is a $20,000 filing fee to get on the ballot, the largest in the nation. Along with the filing fee, an application[4] was required to be submitted to the South Carolina State committee by December 4.

The following candidates have been placed on the ballot:[5]

Additionally, Julián Castro and Marianne Williamson were both accepted onto the ballot, but withdrew soon enough that they will not appear on the ballot.[6] Write-in votes are not permitted in South Carolina party primaries.[7]

Polling[edit]

Polling aggregation
Source of poll aggregation Date
updated
Dates
polled
Joe
Biden
Bernie
Sanders
Tom
Steyer
Pete
Buttigieg
Elizabeth
Warren
Amy
Klobuchar
Others Un-
decided[a]
270 to Win Feb 24, 2020 Feb 9–24, 2020 26.8% 21.7% 14.7% 9.8% 9.0% 5.5% 2.7%[b] 9.8%
RealClear Politics Feb 24, 2020 Feb 9–24, 2020 26.8% 21.7% 14.7% 9.8% 9.0% 5.7% 2.7%[c] 9.6%
FiveThirtyEight Feb 24, 2020 until Feb 24, 2020[d] 30.4% 22.7% 12.9% 8.3% 8.2% 4.2% 12.7%[e] 0.6%
Average 28.0% 22.0% 14.1% 9.3% 8.7% 5.1% 6.1%[f] 6.7%

From January 2020[edit]

   – Debate qualifying poll as designated by the Democratic National Committee
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[g]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Michael
Bloomberg
Pete
Buttigieg
Tulsi
Gabbard
Amy
Klobuchar
Bernie
Sanders
Tom
Steyer
Elizabeth
Warren
Andrew
Yang
Other Un-
decided
Public Policy Polling Feb 23–24, 2020 866 (LV) 36% 7% 6% 3% 21% 7% 8% 11%[h]
Feb 22, 2020 Nevada caucuses
YouGov/CBS News Feb 20–22, 2020 1,238 (LV) ± 5.5% 28% 10% 1% 4% 23% 18% 12% 3%[i] 1%
Marist Poll/NBC News Feb 18–21, 2020 539 (LV) ± 6.0% 27% 9% 3% 5% 23% 15% 8% 2%[j] 9%
997 (RV) ± 4.0% 25% 9% 3% 5% 24% 15% 8% 2%[k] 9%
University of Massachusetts Lowell Feb 12–18, 2020 400 (LV) ± 7.5% 23% 11% 4% 9% 21% 13% 11% 4%[l] 4%
Winthrop University Feb 9–19, 2020 443 (LV) ± 4.7% 24% 7% 1% 4% 19% 15% 6% 1%[m] 2%[n] 22%
Change Research/The Welcome Party Feb 12–14, 2020 1015 (LV) 23% 15% 1% 8% 23% 20% 9% 1%
East Carolina University Feb 12–13, 2020 703 (LV) ± 4.3% 28% 6% 8% 1% 7% 20% 14% 7% 0% 8%
Feb 11–12, 2020 New Hampshire primary; Yang withdraws from the race
Feb 3, 2020 Iowa caucus
Zogby Analytics Jan 31 – Feb 3, 2020 277 (LV) ± 5.9% 28% 4% 7% 4% 2% 20% 15% 11% 1% 0%[o] 8%
East Carolina University Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2020 469 (LV) ± 5.3% 37% 1% 4% 2% 2% 14% 19% 8% 3% 0%[p] 10%
Change Research/
Post and Courier
Jan 26–29, 2020 651 (LV) ± 4% 25% 7% 3% 2% 20% 18% 11% 3% 1%[q] 10%
Jan 13, 2020 Booker withdraws from the race
GQR Research/Unite the Country[r] Jan 9–13, 2020 600 (LV) 36%[s] [t] 5%[u] [v] [w] 15%[x] 12%[y] 10%[z] [aa] [ab] [ac]
Fox News Jan 5–8, 2020 808 (RV) ± 3.5% 36% 2% 4% 1% 1% 14% 15% 10% 2% 3%[ad] 11%

Until January 2020[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[g]
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Cory
Booker
Pete
Buttigieg
Kamala
Harris
Beto
O'Rourke
Bernie
Sanders
Tom
Steyer
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Un-
decided
Change Research/
Post and Courier
Dec 6–11, 2019 392 (LV) ± 4.9% 27% 5% 9% 20% 5% 19% 13%[ae]
Dec 3, 2019 Harris withdraws from the race
YouGov/FairVote [1] Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 400 (LV) ± 7.5% 39% 2% 10% 2% 13% 7% 10% 13%[af] 4%
Quinnipiac University Nov 13–17, 2019 768 (LV) ± 4.8% 33% 2% 6% 3% 11% 5% 13% 7%[ag] 18%
YouGov/CBS News Nov 6–13, 2019 933 (RV) ± 4.2% 45% 2% 8% 5% 15% 2% 17% 6%[ah]
University of
North Florida
Nov 5–13, 2019 426 (LV) 36% 2% 3% 4% 10% 8% 10% 6%[ai] 23%
Nov 1, 2019 O'Rourke withdraws from the race
Monmouth University Oct 16–21, 2019 402 (LV) ± 4.9% 33% 2% 3% 6% 1% 12% 4% 16% 7%[aj] 15%
Change Research/
Post and Courier
Oct 15–21, 2019 731 (LV) ± 3.6% 30% 3% 9% 11% 1% 13% 5% 19% 11%[ak]
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus
Oct 8–10, 2019 607 (LV) ± 3.7% 32% 2% 4% 5% 1% 8% 16% 33%[al] [am]
YouGov/CBS News Oct 3–11, 2019 915 (RV) ±3.9% 43% 3% 4% 7% 1% 16% 2% 18% 6%[an]
Gravis Marketing Oct 3–7, 2019 516 (LV) ± 4.3% 34% 6% 0% 4% 2% 10% 7% 9% 10%[ao] 19%
Fox News Sep 29 – Oct 2, 2019 803 (LV) ± 3.5% 41% 3% 2% 4% 0% 10% 4% 12% 8%[ap] 16%
Winthrop University Sep 21–30, 2019 462 (RV) ± 4.9% 37% 3% 4% 7% 2% 8% 2% 17% 6%[aq] 12%
CNN/SSRS Sep 22–26, 2019 406 (LV) ± 5.9% 37% 2% 4% 3% 2% 11% 3% 16% 4%[ar] 10%
YouGov/CBS News Aug 28 – Sep 4, 2019 849 (RV)[as] ± 4.3% 43% 2% 4% 7% 1% 18% 1% 14% 9%[at]
Change Research Aug 9–12, 2019 521 (LV) ± 4.3% 36% 4% 5% 12% 1% 16% 1% 17% 7%[au]
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus
Jul 23–25, 2019 554 (LV) ± 3.8% 31% 2% 4% 10% 0% 9% 12% 8%[av] 24%
Monmouth University Jul 18–22, 2019 405 (LV) ± 4.9% 39% 2% 5% 12% 1% 10% 2% 9% 3%[aw] 17%
YouGov/CBS News Jul 9–18, 2019 997 (RV)[ax] ± 3.8% 39% 3% 5% 12% 2% 17% 1% 12% 9%[ay]
Fox News Jul 7–10, 2019 701 (LV) ± 3.5% 35% 3% 2% 12% 0% 14% 0% 5% 3%[az] 20%
Jul 9, 2019 Steyer announces his candidacy
Change Research Jun 29 – Jul 4, 2019 421 (LV) 27% 6% 6% 21% 1% 16% 0% 15% 8%[ba]
Change Research Jun 17–20, 2019 308 (LV) 39% 5% 11% 9% 5% 13% 0% 15% 5%[bb]
Change Research Jun 11–14, 2019 933 (LV) ± 3.2% 37% 5% 11% 9% 4% 9% 17% 8%[bc]
YouGov/CBS News May 31 – Jun 12, 2019 552 (LV) 45% 4% 6% 7% 4% 18% 8% 8%[bd]
Zogby Analytics May 23–29, 2019 183 (LV) ± 7.2% 36% 4% 7% 4% 2% 13% 12% 4%[be]
Tel Opinion Research* May 22–24, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 37% 2% 3% 7% 10% 8% 32%
Crantford Research May 14–16, 2019 381 (LV) ± 5.0% 42% 4% 8% 10% 7% 8%
Change Research May 6–9, 2019 595 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 4% 8% 10% 2% 15% 8% 5%[bf]
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus
Apr 30 – May 2, 2019 568 (LV) ± 4.5% 48% 4% 5% 4% 1% 12% 5% 1%[bg] 20%
Apr 25, 2019 Biden announces his candidacy
Apr 14, 2019 Buttigieg announces his candidacy
Change Research Mar 31 – Apr 4, 2019 744 (LV) ± 3.6% 32% 9% 7% 10% 9% 14% 6% 12%[bh]
12% 12% 15% 16% 24% 11% 12%[bi]
Mar 14, 2019 O'Rourke announces his candidacy
Emerson College Feb 28 – Mar 2, 2019 291 (LV) ± 5.7% 37% 6% 0% 9% 5% 21% 5% 16%[bj]
Change Research Feb 15–18, 2019 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 10% 13% 8% 14% 9% 12%[bk]
28% 1% 35% 20% 18%[bl]
Feb 19, 2019 Sanders announces his candidacy
Feb 9, 2019 Warren announces her candidacy
Firehouse Strategies/
Øptimus
Jan 31 – Feb 2, 2019 557 (LV) ± 4.0% 36% 5% 12% 2% 8% 4% 2%[bm] 31%

Head-to-head polls[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Joe
Biden
Pete
Buttigieg
Bernie
Sanders
Elizabeth
Warren
Other Undecided
YouGov/FairVote[2][bn] Nov 22 – Dec 2, 2019 400 (LV) ± 7.5% 73% 27%
66% 34%
61% 29% [bo] 6%
39% 61%
36% 64%
54% 46%
Tel Opinion Research May 22–24, 2019 600 ± 4.0% 71% 10% 19%
70% 15% 16%
67% 15% 18%

Results[edit]

2020 South Carolina Democratic primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates[bp]
Joe Biden
Pete Buttigieg
Tulsi Gabbard
Amy Klobuchar
Bernie Sanders
Tom Steyer
Elizabeth Warren
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)
Cory Booker (withdrawn)
John Delaney (withdrawn)
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)
Total

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined
  2. ^ Gabbard with 2.7%; Bloomberg not reported
  3. ^ Gabbard with 2.7%; Bloomberg not reported
  4. ^ FiveThirtyEight aggregates polls with a trendline regression of polls rather than a strict average of recent polls.
  5. ^ Bloomberg with 9.8%; Gabbard with 2.9%
  6. ^ Bloomberg with 3.3%; Gabbard with 2.8%
  7. ^ a b Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  8. ^ Reported as "Someone else/Undecided"
  9. ^ "Someone else" with 3%
  10. ^ "Other" with 2%
  11. ^ "Other" with 2%
  12. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  13. ^ Accumulated responses until he withdrew; name not included afterwards.
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; Bennet and Patrick were included until they withdrew; Bennet received no voters; Patrick accumulated few enough to round down to 0%
  15. ^ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  16. ^ Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  17. ^ Delaney with 1%; Bennet and Patrick with 0%
  18. ^ The poll's sponsor, Unite the Country, is a pro-Biden super PAC.
  19. ^ data from 538.com
  20. ^ not released
  21. ^ data from 538.com
  22. ^ not released
  23. ^ not released
  24. ^ data from 538.com
  25. ^ data from 538.com
  26. ^ data from 538.com
  27. ^ not released
  28. ^ not released
  29. ^ not released
  30. ^ Booker with 2%; Bennet, Delaney, Patrick, and Williamson with 0%; "None of the above" with 1%
  31. ^ Gabbard with 4%; Bloomberg with 3%; Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Patrick and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro and Delaney with 0%
  32. ^ Gabbard with 4%; Yang with 3%; Bloomberg and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney and Patrick with 1%; Bennet, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; Bullock and Castro with no voters
  33. ^ Yang with 4%; Gabbard, Klobuchar and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam, Patrick and Sestak with 0%
  34. ^ Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, and Klobuchar with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%; someone else with 2%
  35. ^ Bloomberg, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Messam and Sestak with 0%; someone else with 1%
  36. ^ Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney and Gabbard with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Ryan, Sestak and Williamson with 0%
  37. ^ Yang with 4%; Gabbard and Klobuchar with 3%; Bennet with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Ryan and Williamson with 0%
  38. ^ Yang with 2%
  39. ^ The poll did not announce this result separately; it is listed as part of 'Other'.
  40. ^ Bennet, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Messam, and Sestak with 0%; "someone else" with 0%
  41. ^ Bullock, Klobuchar and Yang with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard and Williamson with 1%; Bennet and Ryan with 0%
  42. ^ Bennet, Gabbard, Ryan, Williamson and Yang with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, and Messam with < 0.5%; Sestak with 0%; someone else with 3%
  43. ^ Yang with 2%; Gabbard, Klobuchar, Castro and "Someone else" with 1%; Delaney, Sestak and Bennet with 0%; Bullock, Messam, Ryan and Williamson with less than 0.5%
  44. ^ Bennet, Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Williamson with 1%; Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Ryan, and Yang with 0%
  45. ^ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
  46. ^ de Blasio, Bullock, Delaney, Gabbard, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Messam, Sestak and Williamson with 0%; someone else with 2%
  47. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Castro, Delaney, Klobuchar, Ryan, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, de Blasio, Gillibrand, Inslee, Messam, and Williamson with 0%
  48. ^ Yang with 1%; "A different Democratic candidate" with 7%
  49. ^ Bennet and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, and Inslee with <1%; Bullock, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, Sestak, Williamson, and Yang with 0%
  50. ^ poll results among likely voters of this RV sample
  51. ^ Delaney, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Ryan, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Messam, Moulton, and Sestak with 0%
  52. ^ Delaney, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, de Blasio, Bullock, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Sestak with 0%
  53. ^ Gabbard with 2%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, Delaney, Hickenlooper, Williamson, and Yang with 1%; Gravel, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  54. ^ Yang with 2%; Bullock, de Blasio, and Ryan with 1%; Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Klobuchar, Messam, Moulton, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  55. ^ Yang with 3%; de Blasio, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gravel, Hickenlooper, Messam, Moulton, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  56. ^ Gillibrand, Gravel, Klobuchar, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Bullock, Castro, de Blasio, Delaney, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Moulton, Ryan, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%; others with 3%
  57. ^ Gillibrand with 2%; Castro, Gabbard, Hickenlooper, and Inslee with 1%; Delaney, Klobuchar, and Yang with 0%
  58. ^ Yang with 2%; Abrams, Klobuchar, and Williamson with 1%; Bennet, Castro, Delaney, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Inslee, Ryan, and Swalwell with 0%
  59. ^ Klobuchar with 1%
  60. ^ Abrams with 7%; Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Delaney, Gabbard, Inslee, McAuliffe, Swalwell, and Williamson with 0%
  61. ^ Castro, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, and Klobuchar with 2%; Delaney, Inslee, Messam, and Yang with 1%; Gabbard and Williamson with 0%
  62. ^ Gillibrand with 3%; Bloomberg and Gabbard with 2%: Brown and Klobuchar with 1%; Castro, and Delaney with 0%; others with 8%
  63. ^ Brown and Holder with 2%; Bloomberg, Castro, Gabbard, Gillibrand, Hickenlooper, Klobuchar, Swalwell, and Yang with 1%; Bennet, Cuomo, de Blasio, Delaney, McAuliffe, and Williamson with 0%
  64. ^ Klobuchar with 5%; Castro with 4%; Delaney with 3%; Gabbard and Williamson with 2%; Gillibrand and Yang with 1%
  65. ^ Klobuchar with 1%; Gillibrand with 0%
  66. ^ But for the Biden vs Warren matchup, 'undecided' and 'other' voters are not included in the listed percentages for this poll.
  67. ^ Would not vote with 4%
  68. ^ Number of pledged delegates towards the 2020 Democratic National Convention.

References[edit]

  1. ^ "2020 Election Calendar" (PDF). South Carolina Votes. South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved 16 February 2020.
  2. ^ "Absentee Voting". SC Votes. Retrieved 16 February 2020.
  3. ^ a b "South Carolina Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
  4. ^ "Let's Elect More SC Democrats". South Carolina Democratic Party.
  5. ^ "2/29/2020 Presidential Preference Primary—Candidate". South Carolina Election Commission. Retrieved December 16, 2019.
  6. ^ "2020 Democratic Presidential Preference Primary Candidates | SCVotes". SC Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2020.
  7. ^ "Write-in Votes | SCVotes". SC Votes. Retrieved February 14, 2020.

External links[edit]