2023 Estonian parliamentary election

2023 Estonian parliamentary election

5 March 2023
All 101 seats in the Riigikogu 51 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout	63.53% ( 0.14% pp)
First party Second party Third party   Leader Kaja Kallas Martin Helme Jüri Ratas Party Reform EKRE Centre Last election 28.93%, 34 seats 17.76%, 19 seats 23.10%, 26 seats Seats won 37 17 16 Seat change 3 2 10 Popular vote 190,659 97,959 93,243 Percentage 31.24% 16.05% 15.28% Swing 2.31 pp 1.71 pp 7.28 pp   Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party   Leader Lauri Hussar Lauri Läänemets Helir-Valdor Seeder Party E200 SDE Isamaa Last election 4.36%, 0 seats 9.83%, 10 seats 11.44%, 12 seats Seats won 14 9 8 Seat change 14 1 4 Popular vote 81,347 56,578 50,114 Percentage 13.33% 9.27% 8.21% Swing 8.97 pp 0.56 pp 3.23 pp
Distribution of seats and the largest party by electoral districts
Prime Minister before election Kaja Kallas Reform Prime Minister after election TBD

Parliamentary elections were held in Estonia on 5 March 2023 to elect all 101 members of the unicameral Riigikogu. Based on the unconfirmed results, the officially published election data indicate the victory of the Reform Party, which won 37 seats in total, while the Conservative People's Party of Estonia (EKRE) placed second with 17 seats. The Centre Party won 16 seats, a loss of 10, while Estonia 200 won 14 seats, gaining representation in Riigikogu.

These were the first national elections where more than half of the votes were cast electronically over the Internet. Following the election, on 9 March 2023, EKRE submitted an appeal to the Supreme Court of Estonia, requesting that the electronic voting results should be annulled and claiming that "anomalies and technical errors in the e-voting process had been observed".

Background

In January 2023, the National Electoral Committee announced that nine political parties and ten individual candidates had registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election. Voting at foreign embassies took place from 18 to 23 February, while voters could vote during the pre-election period from 27 February to 4 March.

During the campaign period, issues discussed most extensively regarded Estonian economy, and the country's national defence and security due to the current Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. Individuals from contesting political parties also participated in organised debates on TV, radio, and social media throughout January and February 2023.

The Estonian Centre Party, led by Jüri Ratas, formed a government after the 2019 Estonian parliamentary election, with Ratas serving as prime minister. His government was brought down in January 2021 after a corruption investigation; Kaja Kallas of the Estonian Reform Party formed a coalition government with the Centre Party afterward, although it collapsed in June 2022. Kallas then formed a government with Isamaa and the Social Democratic Party and remained in the position of prime minister.

The previous parliamentary election, which was held in March 2019, saw the loss of the absolute majority held by Jüri Ratas's first cabinet in Riigikogu, the unicameral parliament of Estonia. The Ratas's ruling coalition parties - Centre Party, Isamaa, and Social Democratic Party (SDE) - all suffered a setback in favour of the Reform Party, led by Kallas, and the EKRE. In April 2019, Ratas received the mandate and successfully formed a coalition government with Isamaa and EKRE. Jüri Ratas's second cabinet was sworn in on 29 April 2019.

In January 2021, the Centre Party-led government collapsed after a corruption investigation in which the Centre Party was accused of requesting financial support of up to €1 million within a year in return of the €39 million loan to Hillar Teder's real estate development in Tallinn. In response, Ratas resigned as prime minister of Estonia, while Kallas was invited to form a government. She struck a deal with the Centre Party, with Kallas now serving as prime minister. In June 2022 however, the coalition government between the Centre and Reform Party collapsed due to the Centre Party's opposition to a law regarding education. This occurred during the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine; the Centre Party was seen as close to Russians in Estonia. In response, Kallas opened negotiations with Isamaa and SDE, successfully forming Kaja Kallas's second cabinet on 15 July 2022.

Electoral system

See also: Politics of Estonia

The Riigikogu is made up of 101 seats and its representatives are elected by proportional representation in twelve multi-member constituencies. First, seats are to be filled in 12 constituencies of 5 to 16 seats depending on their population, and the remaining seats, known as "compensation seats", are allocated using the d'Hondt method to all parties that exceeded the 5% electoral threshold, to bring the results in terms of seats as close as possible to those of the vote of the population. Voters have to cast a vote for either an independent candidate or one of the candidates on the list for which they are voting. If an individual candidate or a candidate on a list receives more votes than the amount of the simple quotient in his constituency, they are declared elected even if they individually, or the list for which they are candidate for, fail to cross the national 5% electoral threshold.

In November 2022, Alar Karis, the president of Estonia, signed the election decree, setting the date for 5 March 2023. Estonian citizens who are at least 18 years old, are registered in the voting list, have not been declared incapacitated or convicted of a crime by a court, or are serving a prison sentence have the right to vote. In foreign embassies abroad, voting took place from 18 to 23 February 2023, while to vote by mail in foreign countries, the voter had to submit a written request to the foreign mission by 3 February 2023. Advance voting in Estonia took place from 27 February to 4 March, meaning that a voter could vote outside the electoral district of their residence and electronically. Unlike in previous elections, on 5 March voters were able to vote in any precinct within the constituency, while voters who had voted electronically during the advance voting were able to vote on a paper ballot, although their electronic vote would be cancelled. Citizens who were not able to go to the polling stations or to vote electronically could order a ballot box at home and vote between 3 and 5 March 2023. Around eighty foreign observers monitored the election.

Seats by electoral district

#	Electoral district	Seats
1	Haabersti, Põhja-Tallinn and Kristiine districts in Tallinn	10
2	Kesklinn, Lasnamäe and Pirita districts in Tallinn	13
3	Mustamäe and Nõmme districts in Tallinn	8
4	Harju (excluding Tallinn) and Rapla counties	16
5	Hiiu, Lääne and Saare counties	6
6	Lääne-Viru county	5
7	Ida-Viru county	6
8	Järva and Viljandi counties	7
9	Jõgeva and Tartu counties (excluding Tartu)	7
10	City of Tartu	8
11	Võru, Valga and Põlva counties	8
12	Pärnu county	7
Source: Eesti Rahvusringhääling

Pre-election composition

Party		Seats
	Estonian Reform Party	34
	Estonian Centre Party	23
	Conservative People's Party of Estonia	19
	Isamaa	11
	Social Democratic Party	9
	Parempoolsed	1
	Independents	4
Source: Riigikogu

Contesting parties

See also: List of political parties in Estonia

The Estonian National Electoral Committee announced that nine political parties and ten individual candidates registered to take part in the 2023 parliamentary election. Their registration numbers and order were determined by a draw lot.

#	Name		Ideology	Political position	Leader	Total candidates	2019 result
							Votes (%)	Seats
1		Parempoolsed	Fiscal conservatism	Centre-right	Lavly Perling	125	did not exist
2		Greens	Green politics	Centre-left	Johanna Maria Tõugu	58	1.8%	0 / 101
3		Isamaa	National conservatism	Centre-right to right-wing	Helir-Valdor Seeder	125	11.4%	12 / 101
4		Social Democratic Party	Social democracy	Centre-left	Lauri Läänemets	125	9.8%	10 / 101
5		Conservative People's Party	Right-wing populism	Right-wing to far-right	Martin Helme	125	17.8%	19 / 101
6		Estonia 200	Liberalism	Centre	Lauri Hussar	125	4.4%	0 / 101
7		Reform Party	Classical liberalism	Centre-right	Kaja Kallas	125	28.9%	34 / 101
8		Centre Party	Social liberalism	Centre-left	Jüri Ratas	125	23.1%	26 / 101
9		United Left Party–Together	Russian nationalism	Left-wing	Igor Rosenfeld	25	0.1%	0 / 101
—		Individual candidates	—			10	0.3%	0 / 101

Campaign

Issues

The Eesti Rahvusringhääling and NPR commented that the issues that were discussed during the campaign period were the cost of living crisis, especially regarding rising prices and inflation, as well as issues regarding security and national defence due to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Eesti Rahvusringhääling also asserted that the programmes of the contesting parties were largely influenced by the current war in Ukraine. Ellu Saar, a sociology professor, and Triin Lauri, an associate professor at the Tallinn University, said that in the programmes of EKRE and Isamaa stated their support to protect the Estonian language in higher education, while Estonia 200 and SDE mention united schools where native Estonian-speaking and Russian-speaking students would study together.

Saar and Lauri commented that the Centre Party had a vague opinion regarding the issue of education. The Estonian Greens and SDE also mentioned school culture, quality of management, reducing path dependence as issues they would tackle. The Reform Party also stated its support for introducing national defence classes in schools, while Isamaa said that there should be more investments in national defence. The Centre Party called for higher salaries for those who work to contribute to the national defence, SDE suggested to implement a new tax regarding defence spending, while EKRE said that militarised border guards should be brought back. Anne Raiste of Eesti Rahvusringhääling said that the contesting parties all share similar positions regarding foreign policy and that they pledged to implement forms of direct democracy or a more efficient representative democracy. In regards to the 2022–2023 Ukrainian refugee crisis, only EKRE has expressed concerns about accepting more Ukrainian refugees. Euronews said that EKRE's support in opinion polls fell down due to alleged links with Russia.

Regarding the economy, Raiste said that the contesting parties had pledged to raise pensions to €1,000 or more. The Centre Party stated its support for the introduction of progressive taxation, while SDE and the Greens had adopted similar positions. On the other hand, Reform stated that it would balance the budget, while EKRE called for reduction of taxes. Estonia 200 said that labour taxes should be lowered while Parempoolsed promised to not introduce any new taxes. Scholars Liili Abuladze and Luule Sakkeus stated that EKRE and Isamaa put their family policy focuses on families with many children and that the needs of those most vulnerable are hardly addressed. EKRE stated its opposition to transition to sustainable energy to lower energy bills, while the Reform Party pledged to adopt sustainable energy. EKRE also criticised Kallas's Reform Party due to the growing inflation. The Centre Party campaigned on infrastructure investments and affordable housing.

Debates

2023 Estonian parliamentary election debates
Date	Organisers	P  Present    N  Non-invitee
		Reform	EKRE	Centre	E200	SDE	Isamaa	EER	Parempoolsed	Refs
1 March	Eesti Televisioon	P Kaja Kallas	P Martin Helme	P Jüri Ratas	P Lauri Hussar	P Lauri Läänemets	P Helir-Valdor Seeder	N	P Lavly Perling
27 Feb	Postimees	P Urmas Klaas	P Jaak Valge	P Jaan Toots	P Kristina Kallas	P Krista Aru	P Tõnis Lukas	P Johanna Maria Tõugu	P Elmo Somelar
23 Feb	Postimees	P Jürgen Ligi	P Jaak Madison	P Jaak Aab	P Ando Kiviberg	P Lauri Läänemets	P Helir-Valdor Seeder	N	P Priit Põllumäe
23 Feb	Lääne Elu	P Kalle Laanet	P Helle-Moonika Helme	P Janek Mäggi	P Kalev Stoicescu	P Madis Kallas	P Mikk Lõhmus	P Marko Kaasik	P Kristjan Vanaselja
22 Feb	Vikerraadio	N	N	P Jüri Ratas	P Lauri Hussar	N	N	N	N
22 Feb	Eesti Televisioon	P Kristen Michal	P Rain Epler	P Taavi Aas	P Marek Reinaas	P Riina Sikkut	P Priit Sibul	N	P Siim Kiisler
21 Feb	Vikerraadio	N	N	N	N	P Lauri Läänemets	P Helir-Valdor Seeder	N	P Lavly Perling
20 Feb	Postimees	P Yoko Alender	P Rain Epler	P Ismail Mirzojev	P Gea Kangilaski	P Lemmit Kaplinski	P Priit Humal	P Kaia Solnik	P Indrek Adler
16 Feb	Postimees	P Jürgen Ligi	P Kalle Grünthal	P Kersti Sarapuu	P Kaspar Taimsoo	P Eimar Veldre	P Ründo Mülts	P Oliver Rohesalu	P Priit Põllumäe
16 Feb	Vikerraadio	P Signe Risalo	P Kert Kingo	P Tanel Kiik	P Irja Lutsar	P Helmen Kütt	P Lea Danilson-Järg	N	P Marelle Erlenheim
16 Feb	Eesti Televisioon	N	N	N	N	N	N	P Marko Kaasik	P Kristjan Vanaselja
15 Feb	Postimees	P Signe Riisalo	P Kert Kingo	P Monika Haukanõmm	P Diana Ingerainen	P Heljo Pikhof	P Merike Värik	P Susanna Saar	P Toomas Kasemaa
13 Feb	Postimees	P Andres Sutt	P Raul Siem	P Andrei Korobeinik	P Kristina Kallas	P Riina Sikkut	P Kristjan Järvan	P Marti Soosaar	P Lavly Perling
9 Feb	Vikerraadio	P Liina Kersna	P Jaak Valge	P Jaak Aab	P Kristina Kallas	P Piret Hartman	N	N	P Tauno Õunapuu
7 Feb	Vikerraadio	P Annely Akkermann	P Siim Pohlak	P Lauri Laats	P Joakim Helenius	P Lauri Paeveer	P Aivar Kokk	N	P Alar Voitka
2 Feb	Vikerraadio	P Liina Kersna	P Loone Ots	P Tõnis Mölder	P Kristina Kallas	P Jevgeni Ossinovski	P Tõnis Lukas	N	P Andres Kaarmann
2 Feb	AmCham FICE	P Andres Sutt	P Martin Helme	P Tanel Kiik	P Joakim Helenius	P Riina Sikkut	P Urmas Reinsalu	N	N
1 Feb	Vikerraadio	P Hanno Pevkur	P Jaak Madison	P Neeme Väli	P Margus Tsahkna	P Raimond Kaljulaid	P Urmas Reinsalu	N	P Ilmar Raag
31 Jan	Vikerraadio	P Meelis Kiili	P Jaak Valge	P Mihhail Kõlvart	P Aleksei Jašin	P Piret Hartman	P Hendrik Agur	N	P Ivo Loide

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2023 Estonian parliamentary election

Local regression chart of poll results from 3 March 2019 to 5 March 2023

Preliminary results

Voting at Estonian embassies abroad took place between 18 and 23 February 2023. The National Electoral Committee had announced that 47.3% of voters cast their ballot during the pre-election period, which began on 27 February and ended before 5 March, a majority of whom voted online. Voting stations on 5 March 2023 were opened from 9:00 am to 8:00 pm. There were 966,129 citizens that had the right to vote in the election.

The turnout progressed towards 63% by 7:00 pm according to Eesti Rahvusringhääling, with the highest turnout being in the Rapla County and the lowest in the Ida-Viru County. With 312,181 electronic votes, these were the first elections where more than half of votes were cast online. Later that day, Eesti Rahvusringhääling, Reuters, and the Associated Press reported that the Reform Party won the most votes and seats in the Riigikogu, with EKRE placing second and the Centre Party placing third. Additionally, Eesti Rahvusringhääling reported that Estonia 200 would enter Riigikogu for the first time since its formation.

Party		Votes	%	+/–	Seats	+/–
	Estonian Reform Party	190,659	31.24	+2.31	37	+3
	Conservative People's Party of Estonia	97,959	16.05	−1.71	17	−2
	Estonian Centre Party	93,243	15.28	−7.28	16	−10
	Estonia 200	81,347	13.33	+8.97	14	+14
	Social Democratic Party	56,578	9.27	−0.56	9	−1
	Isamaa	50,114	8.21	−3.23	8	−4
	Estonian United Left Party–Together	14,607	2.39	+2.30	0	0
	Parempoolsed	14,035	2.30	New	0	New
	Estonian Greens	5,889	0.96	−0.86	0	0
	Independents	5,887	0.96	+0.68	0	0
Total		610,318	100.00	–	101	0
Valid votes		610,318	99.43
Invalid/blank votes		3,494	0.57
Total votes		613,812	100.00
Registered voters/turnout		966,129	63.53
Source: National Electoral Committee

Results by constituency

Constituency	Reform		Centre		EKRE		Isamaa		SDE		E200		EER		Parempoolsed		EÜVP–Koos		Independents
	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S	%	S
No. 1	31.4	4	20.9	4	9.7	1	5.6	1	10.0	1	15.7	2	1.1	0	2.3	0	3.3	0	0.1	0
No. 2	29.4	4	29.0	5	9.1	1	5.4	1	8.6	1	10.9	2	1.0	0	1.6	0	4.9	0	0.1	0
No. 3	34.7	3	18.9	1	11.7	1	6.5	0	8.9	1	14.2	1	1.1	0	2.1	0	1.9	0	0.0	0
No. 4	40.0	7	10.2	1	14.6	3	8.3	1	7.1	1	13.7	2	0.7	0	3.4	0	1.3	0	0.8	0
No. 5	27.6	1	11.2	1	19.4	1	7.8	0	13.9	1	17.1	1	0.9	0	2.1	0	0.0	0	0.0	0
No. 6	31.1	1	13.4	0	20.5	2	13.7	0	7.5	0	8.7	1	0.5	0	3.0	0	1.5	0	0.2	0
No. 7	14.1	1	25.8	1	8.4	1	4.0	0	7.6	0	8.3	0	0.5	0	1.0	0	14.9	0	15.5	0
No. 8	27.8	2	10.2	1	23.3	1	11.9	1	12.9	2	10.7	0	0.8	0	2.1	0	0.0	0	0.3	0
No. 9	30.4	3	9.2	0	19.7	1	12.0	1	9.0	0	14.6	1	1.0	0	2.6	0	1.5	0	0.0	0
No. 10	35.9	4	7.3	0	14.5	1	8.6	1	9.9	1	18.4	1	1.7	0	2.0	0	1.6	0	0.0	0
No. 11	24.0	5	13.4	1	26.5	2	8.5	1	12.3	1	11.5	1	1.3	0	2.3	0	0.0	0	0.2	0
No. 12	29.5	2	11.4	1	26.0	2	10.0	1	6.7	0	12.8	2	0.8	0	2.2	0	0.7	0	0.0	0
Total	31.24	37	15.28	16	16.05	17	9.27	9	8.21	8	13.33	14	0.96	0	2.30	0	2.39	0	0.96	0
Source: National Electoral Committee, Eesti Rahvusringhääling

Aftermath

Tanel Kiik, the vice-chair of the Centre Party, had said that "the Centre Party would be satisfied if it were to get 20 seats" in Riigikogu, while Sven Mikser, the former chairman of the SDE, said that "nine mandates is probably the best the party can do in Estonia today". Ratas later described the results as "mediocre". After the publication of e-vote results, Kallas gave a speech and thanked her voters while Martin Helme, the leader of EKRE, stated that "he does not trust the e-vote results" and demanded a recount. Kallas was congratulated by Sanna Marin, the prime minister of Finland, and Krišjānis Kariņš, the prime minister of Latvia.

Karis is set to give the Reform Party the mandate to form a government, after which negotiations between the parties will be held. Eesti Rahvusringhääling reported that while experts predicted that the Reform–Estonia 200–SDE coalition would be formed after the election, Kallas only ruled out a coalition with EKRE. A day after the election, Kallas said "that it is clear that voters expect to see Estonia 200 in the government", while she also said that there are four possible coalitions for the Reform Party to form. Kallas invited Estonia 200 and SDE for government talks on 7 March 2023. On 9 March 2023, EKRE made an appeal to the Supreme Court of Estonia, requesting the results to be annulled and claiming that "several anomalies and technical errors in the e-voting process had been observed". Lawyer Paul Keres of EKRE also claimed that the e-voting process is unconstitutional.

External links

• Official website of the National Electoral Committee