Opinion polling for the 2024 United Kingdom general election: Difference between revisions
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Revision as of 18:50, 20 May 2020
| 2015 general election • Opinion polls |
| 2017 general election • Opinion polls |
| 2019 general election • Opinion polls |
| Next general election • Opinion polls |
In the run up to the next United Kingdom general election, various organisations are expected to carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention. Results of such polls are displayed in this article. Most of the polling companies listed are members of the British Polling Council (BPC) and abide by its disclosure rules.
The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous general election, held on 12 December 2019, to the present day. Under current fixed-term legislation, the next general election is scheduled to be held in May 2024,[1] though the government has pledged to repeal this law.[2]
Most opinion polls do not cover Northern Ireland, since its major political parties are different from those in the rest of the United Kingdom.
Graphical summary
National poll results
Poll results are listed in the table below in reverse chronological order. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour. The 'party lead' column shows the percentage-point difference between the two parties with the highest figures. In the instance of a tie, no figure is shaded but both are displayed in bold. In the instance a pollster does not provide a result for a party, that party will be displayed with a '–'.
The parties with the largest numbers of votes in the 2019 general election are listed here. Other parties are listed in the "Other" column.
2020
| Pollster | Client | Dates conducted |
Area | Sample size |
Con | Lab | Lib Dem | SNP | Plaid Cymru | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;" | | |||||||
| YouGov | The Times | 18–19 May | GB | 1,718 | 48% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 15 May | GB | 1,500 | 47% | 35% | 9% | 4% | 0% | 3% | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 12% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 13–14 May | GB | 1,062 | 49% | 34% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 15% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 5–11 May | GB | 1,130 | 51% | 32% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 19% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 5–7 May | GB | 1,053 | 49% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 16% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 6 May | GB | 1,500 | 50% | 31% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 5% | – | 3% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 19% |
| YouGov | The Times | 5–6 May | GB | 1,667 | 50% | 30% | 7% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 3% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 20% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 27 Apr–1 May | GB | 1,072 | 51% | 33% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 18% |
| Survation | N/A | 27–28 Apr | UK | 1,023 | 48% | 31% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 3% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 26 Apr | GB | 1,500 | 50% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 4% | – | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 21–23 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 50% | 33% | 7% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 16–20 Apr | GB | 1,118 | 54% | 28% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 0% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 26% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 17 Apr | GB | 1,500 | 52% | 31% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 3% | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 21% |
| YouGov | The Times | 16–17 Apr | GB | 2,015 | 53% | 32% | 5% | 4% | 1% | 3% | 1% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 21% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 15–17 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 51% | 32% | 6% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 19% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 7–9 Apr | GB | 2,005 | 55% | 29% | 5% | 5% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 26% |
| BMG | The Independent | 7–9 Apr | GB | 1,541 | 46% | 29% | 10% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| Keir Starmer is elected leader of the Labour Party | |||||||||||||
| Opinium | The Observer | 1–3 Apr | GB | 2,000 | 53% | 30% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 23% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 1–2 Apr | UK | 2,000 | 49% | 29% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 4% | – | 5% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 20% |
| YouGov | The Times | 1–2 Apr | GB | 1,631 | 52% | 28% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 24% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 26–27 Mar | GB | 2,006 | 54% | 28% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 26% |
| Number Cruncher Politics | Bloomberg | 24–26 Mar | GB | 1,010 | 54% | 28% | 7% | 4% | 0% | 4% | 2% | 0% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 26% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 23 Mar | GB | 1,500 | 47% | 29% | 8% | 5% | 1% | 5% | – | 5% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 18% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 19–20 Mar | GB | 2,005 | 51% | 31% | 7% | 5% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 20% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 13–16 Mar | GB | 1,003 | 52% | 30% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 22% |
| 2020 local elections delayed to 2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic[3] | |||||||||||||
| Opinium | The Observer | 12–13 Mar | GB | 2,005 | 49% | 32% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 5% | 0% | 3%[b] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| Kantar Public | N/A | 5–9 Mar | GB | 1,171 | 50% | 29% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 21% |
| BMG | The Independent | 3–6 Mar | GB | 1,498 | 45% | 28% | 11% | 3% | 1% | 6% | 3% | 2%[a] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 17% |
| SavantaComRes | Sunday Express | 19–20 Feb | GB | 2,005 | 47% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 3% | <1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 16% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 12–14 Feb | GB | 2,007 | 47% | 32% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 15% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies | N/A | 12 Feb | GB | 1,216 | 49% | 31% | 9% | 4% | 1% | 4% | – | 2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 18% |
| YouGov | The Times | 9–10 Feb | GB | 1,694 | 48% | 28% | 10% | 4% | 1% | 6% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 20% |
| BMG | The Independent | 4–7 Feb | GB | 1,503 | 41% | 29% | 11% | 5% | 1% | 8% | 3% | 3%[b] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;" | 12% |
| Ipsos MORI | Evening Standard | 31 Jan–3 Feb | GB | 1,001 | 47% | 30% | 11% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 1% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 17% |
| YouGov | The Times | 31 Jan–2 Feb | GB | 1,575 | 49% | 30% | 8% | 4% | 1% | 5% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 19% |
| The United Kingdom leaves the European Union | |||||||||||||
| Survation | N/A | 30–31 Jan | UK | 1,015 | 44% | 33% | 10% | 5% | 0% | 3% | 3% | 2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11% |
| YouGov | The Times | 24–26 Jan | GB | 1,628 | 49% | 29% | 10% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 0% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 20% |
| Opinium | The Observer | 15–17 Jan | GB | 1,978 | 47% | 30% | 9% | 5% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 17% |
| BMG | The Independent | 8–10 Jan | GB | 1,508 | 44% | 29% | 11% | 3% | 0% | 5% | 4% | 2%[b] | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 15% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | UK | – | 43.6% | 32.1% | 11.6% | 3.9% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 4.2% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11.5% | |
| GB | 44.7% | 32.9% | 11.8% | 4.0% | 0.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% | 1.7% | style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 11.8% | ||||
Nations and regions polling
London
| Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Lib Dem | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;" | | ||||||
| YouGov | Queen Mary University of London | 2–6 March 2020 | 1,002 | 46% | 34% | 11% | 7% | 1% | 1% | style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 48.1% | 32% | 14.9% | 3.1% | 1.4% | 0.5% | style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 16.1% | |
Scotland
| Pollster | Client | Date(s) conducted |
Sample size |
SNP | Con | Lab | Lib Dem | Green | Brexit | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Conservative Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Labour Party (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Liberal Democrats (UK)/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Green Party of England and Wales/meta/color;" | | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;" | | ||||||
| Panelbase[citation needed] | N/A | 1–5 May 2020 | 1,086 | 50% | 26% | 17% | 5% | 2% | 0% | 2% | style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 24% |
| YouGov | N/A | 24–27 Apr 2020 | 1,095 | 51% | 25% | 15% | 6% | 2% | 0% | 1% | style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;color:#000000;" | 26% |
| Panelbase | Sunday Times | 24–26 Mar 2020 | 1,023 | 48% | 27% | 16% | 5% | 3% | – | – | style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| 21% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 45.0% | 25.1% | 18.6% | 9.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.3% | style="background:Template:Scottish National Party/meta/color;"| 19.9% | |
Wales
| Pollster | Client | Dates conducted |
Sample size |
Lab | Con | Plaid Cymru | Lib Dem | Brexit | Green | Other | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Brexit Party/meta/color;"| | data-sort-type="number" style="background:Template:Wales Green Party/meta/color;"| | ||||||
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 3–7 Apr 2020 | 1,008 | 34% | 46% | 11% | 4% | 3% | 2% | 0% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 12% |
| YouGov | ITV Cymru Wales/Cardiff University | 20–26 Jan 2020 | 1,037 | 36% | 41% | 13% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 1% | style="background:Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 5% |
| 2019 general election | 12 Dec 2019 | – | 40.9% | 36.1% | 9.9% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 1.0% | 0.7% | style="background:Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color;color:#FFFFFF;"| 4.8% | |
See also
- Leadership approval opinion polling for the next United Kingdom general election
- Opinion polling for the next Welsh Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Scottish Parliament election
- Opinion polling for the next Northern Ireland Assembly election
- Opinion polling on the United Kingdom's membership of the European Union (2016–present)
Notes
References
- ^ Tufft, Ben (8 May 2015). "When will the next UK General Election be held?". The Independent. Retrieved 29 December 2019.
The act specifies that future elections will be held on the first Thursday of May, every five years.
- ^ "Full transcript: The Queen's Speech". The Spectator. 19 December 2019. Retrieved 30 January 2020.
- ^ "English local elections postponed over coronavirus". March 13, 2020 – via www.bbc.co.uk.