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2020 Croatian parliamentary election

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2020 Croatian parliamentary election
← 2016 5 July 2020 2024 →
All 151 seats in the Croatian Parliament
76 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout46.44% (Decrease 8.18pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Candidate Andrej Plenković Davor Bernardić Miroslav Škoro
Party HDZ SDP DPMŠ
Alliance HDZ-led coalition Restart DPMŠ-led coalition
Leader since 17 July 2016 26 November 2016 29 February 2020
Last election 61 seats, 36.58% 45 seats, 33.45%[a] Did not contest
Seats won
Seat change Increase 5 Decrease4 Increase 16
Popular Vote 621,035 414,645 181,493
Percentage 37.26% 24.87% 10.89%
Swing Increase0.68pp Decrease8.58pp[a] New
  Fourth party Fifth party Sixth party
 
Mozemo! 20202 sedmorka u Saboru RH (cropped, Sandra Benčić).jpg
Teodor Celakoski, Okrugli stol Održivost margine - Mjere za opstanak nezavisne kulture (cropped).jpg
Candidate Božo Petrov Collective leadership[b] Dalija Orešković
Party Most We Can! IP
Alliance Green–Left IP–P–Focus
Leader since 17 November 2012 10 February 2019
Last election 13 seats, 9.84% Did not contest Did not contest
Seats won
Seat change Decrease5 Increase7 Increase3
Popular Vote 123,194 116,483 66,399
Percentage 7.39% 6.99% 3.98%
Swing Decrease2.45pp New New
Result by constituency
Government before election

Cabinet of Andrej Plenković I
HDZ—HNS

Government after election

Cabinet of Andrej Plenković II
HDZ—SDSS

Politics of Croatia
Coat of arms
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
Judiciary
Political parties in Sabor
Elections and referendums
Recent elections

Recent referendums

Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Parliamentary elections were held in Croatia on 5 July 2020.[1] They were the tenth parliamentary elections since the first multi-party elections in 1990 and elected the 151 members of the Croatian Parliament. 140 Members of Parliament were elected from geographical electoral districts in Croatia, three MPs were chosen by the Croatian diaspora and eight MPs came from the ranks of citizens registered as belonging to any of the 22 constitutionally recognized national minorities.[c]

During April 2020, there had been widespread media speculation that the election would be called earlier than originally planned, due to the uncertainty created by the still-ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[2] Namely, though the spread of the virus had been brought under control by that time, fears still persisted that the number of infected cases could once again begin to rise in autumn and that this could, therefore, impede or even prevent the holding of the election.[3] Thus, several prominent members of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – the senior partner in the ruling coalition, (including Speaker of the Parliament Gordan Jandroković) had voiced their support for the proposal that the elections be held some time during the summer.[4][5][6] In addition, in early May several sources from within both the ruling HDZ and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) stated that parliament could be dissolved as early as mid-May, with elections then taking place in late June or early July.[7] On 14 May 2020, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković confirmed that the government had indeed reached an agreement with the parliamentary opposition on the holding of an early election and the dissolution of parliament thus took place on 18 May.[8][9] This entailed that President Zoran Milanović had to formally call the election by 17 July 2020 at the latest.

In the elections the ruling Christian-democratic HDZ faced its main challenge from the centre-left Restart Coalition chaired by SDP leader Davor Bernardić, which consisted of the SDP and several smaller parties (such as the Croatian Peasant Party, Civic-Liberal Alliance, Croatian Party of Pensioners and Istrian Democratic Assembly).[10][11] Opinion polls suggested that a conservative coalition led by 2019 presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro and of Škoro's Homeland Movement party, some of the parties of the Croatian Sovereignists coalition and several other smaller right-wing parties,[12] would become the third-largest grouping in parliament, while the centre-right Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) – which finished a strong third in both the 2015 and 2016 elections, and which had supported Škoro's presidential campaign, could be reduced to the role of a minor parliamentary party.

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections. The Homeland Movement-led coalition finished third, with Most in fourth place. Two new coalitions, the Green–Left Coalition consisting of We Can!, the New Left, the Worker's Front, ORaH, Zagreb is OURS and For the City, and the centrist Party with a First and Last Name–Pametno–Focus coalition, entered parliament for the first time.[13]

Background

In the previous parliamentary election, held on 11 September 2016, the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won an upset plurality of seats - receiving 61 MPs in the parliament, while the opposition People's Coalition won 54 seats.[14] Therefore, HDZ chairman Andrej Plenković began talks on the formation of a governing majority with the third-placed Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) party, as well as with MPs representing national minorities. Meanwhile, as a result of the defeat of his coalition the SDP chairman (and People's Coalition Prime Ministerial candidate), Zoran Milanović, announced his withdrawal from politics.[15] A few weeks after the election, HDZ and Most successfully concluded their coalition talks and agreed to form a government that would rely on the outside support of the 8 Members of Parliament representing the national minorities. As a result, on 10 October 2016, Plenković presented 91 signatures of support from MPs to President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and she, therefore, proceeded to give him a 30-day mandate (expiring on 9 November 2016) to form a government. Thereafter, Parliament formally convened on 14 October 2016 with the election of Most chairman Božo Petrov as a Speaker, while a parliamentary vote held on 19 October 2016 confirmed the proposed Cabinet of Andrej Plenković by a vote of 91 in favor, 45 against and 3 abstentions.[16] Thus, Plenković became the 12th Prime Minister of Croatia, while his cabinet became the fourteenth to hold the office since the first multi-party election took place in 1990 – while Croatia was still a constituent republic of SFR Yugoslavia.

Most left the governing coalition in April 2017, amid a disagreement with the HDZ over Finance Minister Zdravko Marić's alleged withholding of information relating to financial irregularities in Agrokor - one of Croatia's largest firms, which had brought about a crisis due to Agrokor not being able to pay back its loans. Thus, as the HDZ-led government was left without a clear parliamentary majority (and a no-confidence vote in Marić was only narrowly avoided by a 75–75 split vote in Parliament), the possibility of an early election (the third in 18 months) greatly increased during May. However, in June the Plenković government managed to regain a parliamentary majority by forming a new cabinet, which included members of the center-left Croatian People's Party - Liberal Democrats (HNS-LD). Yet, the decision to enter into government with the HDZ - made by the HNS-LD's central body, was quite unexpected and thus immediately created a split within the HNS-LD. Namely, only five of the party's nine MPs decided to support the newly formed coalition, while the remaining four (including former party chair Vesna Pusić) opted instead to form a new political party - named the Civic-Liberal Alliance (Glas), and remain in the opposition.[citation needed]

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his HDZ party have faced criticism from numerous activists, public figures and political opponents for allegedly dissolving the Parliament several months in advance in order to avoid holding elections during a major economic crisis (caused by the COVID-19 pandemic), which is expected to have a severe impact on Croatia in autumn, once the financial losses in the tourism sector are included in economic projections.[citation needed]

Many citizens of Zagreb have accused the government and the ruling HDZ party of leaving them unprotected for several months by dissolving the Parliament and by failing to adopt the necessary legal measures to deal with the earthquake damage before doing so. Namely, instead of pursuing the adoption of a set of emergency laws, the government has decided to delay any new legal framework on this issue by at least 3 to 6 months. This caused activists from several public platforms - mainly from Green-Left coalition, to gathered on St. Mark's Square on 17 May 2020, where they remained for 24 hours in order to protest against the resolution on the early dissolution of parliament.[17]

As soon as parliament was dissolved the HDZ's local branch in the city of Vukovar (the site of one of the most major and emotionally symbolic battles in the Croatian War of Independence) decided to cut its ties with the party's central organization, claiming that they felt that their city has been misused for political gain and that the government had also failed to provide it with opportunities for economic development. Thus, this former branch of the HDZ will contest the election as part of some other coalition.[18]

Outgoing 9th Assembly of Parliament

The following is a partisan makeup of the 9th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament as of 18 May 2020:[19]

On 18 May 2020, the 9th Assembly dissolved itself by a vote of 105 in favor.[20]

Electoral system

Geographic electoral districts (I-X)

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected from 10 geographical and two special electoral districts:[21]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2020 Croatian parliamentary election

The following graph depicts the evolution of standings of the two main political parties and other parties in the poll average since last parliamentary elections.

  HDZ
  SDP
  Most
  ŽZ
  BM 365
  IDS-DDI
  Pametno
  HNS-LD
  HSS
  SSIP
  GLAS
  NHR
  NLMK
  Hrast / HS
  DPMŠ
  ZLK

Seat predictions

(excluding electoral districts XI and XII)   Exit poll

Date of publication Polling Firm HDZ Restart Coalition DPMŠ-led coalition Most Green-Left ŽZ HNS BM 365 IDS P-IP NS–R NLMP Lead
5 Jul 2020 Final Results 66 41 16 8 7 - 1 - [g] 3 1 [g] 25
5 Jul 2020 IPSOS 19:00 UTC+2 61 44 16 8 8 - - - [g] 3 - [g] 17
Average 53 57 18 7 4 - - - [g] 1 - [g] 4
4 Jul 2020 IPSOS 52 51 18 9 6 - - - [g] 3 1 [g] 1
2 Jul 2020 Promocija plus 55 56 18 6 3 1 - - [g] 1 - [g] 1
29 Jun 2020 2x1 komunikacije 51 63 17 6 2 - 1 - [g] - - [g] 12
27 Jun 2020 Promocija plus 54 60 18 5 2 1 - - [g] - - [g] 6
13 Jun 2020 2x1 komunikacije 52 64 15 8 - - 1 - [g] - - [g] 12
15 May 2020 2x1 komunikacije 54 64 14 3 - - - 1 3 - - 1 10

Results

Results of the election based on the majority of votes in each municipality of Croatia and Zagreb's four electoral districts
  HDZ-led coalition
  Restart Coalition
  HNS–LD
  DPMŠ-led coalition
  NS–R
  Enough of Robbery
  Lacković independent list
  IP–Pametno–Fokus
Results by municipality, showing vote share of the winning party.

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections. The HDZ likely received a boost from public approval over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic also caused voter turnout to be the lowest since the first democratic elections in 1990, with under half of registered voters participating.

PartyVotes%Seats+/–
HDZ–HSLS–HDS–HDSSB[i]621,03537.2666+5
SDP–HSS–GLAS–IDS–HSU–SNAGA–PGS[ii]414,64524.8741–4
DPMŠ–HS–HKS–HRAST−BzH–ZL−SU[iii]181,49310.8916New
Bridge of Independent Lists123,1947.398–5
Green–Left (M!–RF–NL–ORaH)[iv]116,4836.997New
IP–Smart–Focus[v]66,3993.983+3
Enough of Robbery37,6282.260–8
Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats21,7271.301–8
People's Party – Reformists16,9001.0110
Bandić Milan 365 – Labour and Solidarity Party9,8970.590–1
Croatian Civic Party7,3990.4400
Right League (NHR and HSP)7,2660.440New
Democrats–HL–RI6,5940.400New
Authentic Croatian Party of Rights5,3430.3200
Pensioners Together Bloc5,2680.3200
Croatian Democratic Party2,4650.1500
Strength of Slavonia and Baranja2,2940.140New
Socialist Labour Party of Croatia2,1490.1300
Union of Kvarner2,0440.120New
Movement for a Modern Croatia1,3070.0800
My Beloved Croatia9780.060New
Authentic Croatian Peasant Party9580.0600
BDSH–HBPS7680.0500
Croatian Party of the Future7320.040New
Croatian Civil Resistance Party7140.040New
Independent List of Bura6260.040New
Free Croatia6050.0400
Croatian Perspective Party5760.0300
Croatian Community Party4050.020New
Croatian Party of Order3380.0200
Alphabet of Democracy2190.010New
Independents8,5240.510–1
National minorities80
Total1,666,973100.001510
Valid votes1,666,97397.73
Invalid/blank votes38,7132.27
Total votes1,705,686100.00
Registered voters/turnout3,672,55546.44
Source: Izbori
  1. ^ Of the 66 seats won by the HDZ-led alliance, the HDZ won 62, the Croatian Social Liberal Party won two and the Croatian Christian Democratic Party and Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja won one each.
  2. ^ Of the 41 seats won by the Restart coalition, the Social Democratic Party won 33, the Istrian Democratic Assembly three, the Croatian Peasant Party two, the Croatian Party of Pensioners one, the Civic Liberal Alliance one, the Damir Bajs Independent List one.
  3. ^ Of the 16 seats won by the DPMŠ-led coalition, the DPMŠ won eleven, the Croatian Sovereignists three, Croatian Conservative Party one and the Bloc for Croatia one.
  4. ^ Of the seven seats won by the Green–Left Coalition, four were won by We can! and one each by the Workers' Front, the New Left and an independent candidate (Bojan Glavašević).
  5. ^ The three seats won by the IP–Smart–Focus coalition were divided equally between IP, Smart and Focus.

Results by constituency

Constituency HDZ Restart DPMŠ Most Green-Left IP - P - F HNS NS R
% Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats % Seats
I 28.3 5 22.3 3 9.0 1 8.1 1 21.1 3 6.3 1 0.2 - 0.2 -
II 34.3 6 24.6 4 13.5 2 7.9 1 5.5 1 3.5 - 0.6 - 3.2 -
III 29.5 5 37.7 6 6.2 1 2.8 - 3.4 - 3.7 - 5.8 1 5.5 1
IV 44.0 8 20.5 3 16.6 3 4.8 - 2.2 - 2.1 - 4.6 - 0.2 -
V 47.8 8 19.2 3 19.8 3 5.8 0 1.5 - 1.6 - 0.4 - 0.4 -
VI 37.9 6 24.2 4 11.0 2 7.0 1 9.5 1 3.7 - 0.5 - part of Restart
VII 35.9 6 24.5 4 9.5 1 6.8 1 10.5 1 6.4 1 0.4 - 0.3 -
VIII 22.5 4 44.5 8 4.7 - 5.8 1 8.5 1 3.6 - 0.5 - 0.2 -
IX 47.5 8 17.2 3 11.9 2 10.0 1 2.4 - 2.7 - 0.4 - 0.3 -
X 40.9 7 20.5 3 10.3 1 12.1 2 4.3 - 5.4 1 0.8 - 0.2 -
XI 63.0 3 - - - - 11.1 0 1.8 - 0.5 - - - 0.4 -
Total 37.3 66 24.9 41 10.9 16 7.4 8 7.0 7 4.0 3 1.3 1 1.0 1
Source: Results[22]

Note: The eight members elected in Electoral district XII are not shown here.

Aftermath

Acknowledging his party's defeat in the legislative elections, Davor Bernardić stepped down as the leader of Social Democrats.[23]

On 6 July 2020 HDZ leader Andrej Plenković announced that he had collected the support of the 76 MPs needed to form a government, following coalition negotiations. He announced that he had received support from his party and allies, the HNS – LD, the NS-R, and all 8 representatives of the national minorities. The Second Plenković cabinet was confirmed by Parliament on 23 July 2020.[24]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b Vote share compared to the People's Coalition
  2. ^ Coordinators of We Can!, the biggest party in the coalition, Sandra Benčić and Teodor Celakoski are pictured
  3. ^ Albanian, Austrian, Bosnian, Bulgarian, Czech, German, Hungarian, Italian, Jewish, Macedonian, Montenegrin, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Russian, Rusyn, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach
  4. ^ Vladimir Bilek (Czech and Slovak), Robert Jankovics (Hungarian), Veljko Kajtazi (Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach), Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj (Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian) and Furio Radin (Italian)
  5. ^ Mario Habek, Ana Komparić Devčić, Željko Lacković, Ivica Mišić, Zdravko Ronko, Tomislav Saucha
  6. ^ Slaven Dobrović, Željko Glasnović, Bojan Glavašević, Marko Vučetić
  7. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p with Restart coalition

References

  1. ^ "Croatian president sets parliamentary vote for July 5". ABC News. Associated Press. 20 May 2020. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  2. ^ "Puhovski o nagađanjima kada će biti izbori". vijesti.hrt.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  3. ^ "'Nema se što čekati': Poznato kad bismo mogli na parlamentarne izbore". tportal.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  4. ^ "Branko Bačić nema ništa protiv izbora u srpnju: 'Da se mene pita ja bih ih odmah raspisao'". dnevno.hr. 30 April 2020. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  5. ^ "JANDROKOVIĆ: "Izbori početkom ljeta su sigurniji, nego se izložiti riziku jeseni"". nacional.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  6. ^ "Anušić: Realno je da izbori budu na ljeto". glasistre.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  7. ^ "HDZ uz podršku SDP-a raspušta Sabor već u svibnju, a parlamentarni izbori održavaju se najkasnije u srpnju?". narod.hr. 24 April 2020. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  8. ^ "Izbori najkasnije 12. srpnja. Plenković: Čuo sam se s Milanovićem, sve je na njemu". index.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  9. ^ "Sabor koji se upravo raspustio zasjedao je 421 dan, a zastupnici su odradili 1702 točke". vecernji.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  10. ^ "Predstavljena oporbena "Restart" koalicija: "Naše ime je naš program. Ovo je stožer za obranu Hrvatske od HDZ-a"". dnevnik.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  11. ^ "IDS dio koalicije- Restart prihvatio uvjete za koaliranje". Glas Istre HR.
  12. ^ "Zapeli pregovori Škore sa Suverenistima i Mostom". index.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  13. ^ Gregoret, Vijesti hr, Damira. "EKSKLUZIVNO! RTL donosi rezultate istraživanje političkih preferencija po izbornim jedinicama". Vijesti.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  14. ^ "Oni su pobjednici u svojim izbornim jedinicama". dnevnik.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  15. ^ "Zoran Milanović podnio ostavku na mjesto čelnika SDP-a". evarazdin.hr. 12 September 2016. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  16. ^ "Dobili smo Vladu, Plenković je postao novi premijer, podržao ga je 91 zastupnik dok je 45 bilo protiv". telegram.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  17. ^ "'ZAGREB VAM OVO NEĆE ZABORAVITI!' Ogorčeni čelnici stranaka ljevice prosvjeduju na Markovu trgu, najavljuju da će tamo ostati do sutra". jutarnji.hr. 17 May 2020. Retrieved 21 May 2020.
  18. ^ "Koliko je ovaj snažan udar iz Vukovara opasan za HDZ na izborima". Telegram.hr.
  19. ^ "Stranački sastav Hrvatskog sabora 18-5-2020" (PDF). izbori.hr. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
  20. ^ "9th Croatian Parliament dissolved". sabor.hr. Retrieved 19 May 2020.
  21. ^ Electoral system IPU
  22. ^ "Izbori za zastupnike u Hrvatski Sabor (05.07.2020.)" [Elections for members of the Croatian Parliament (July 5, 2020)]. Državno izborno povjerenstvo Republike Hrvatske (in Croatian). Retrieved 6 March 2023.
  23. ^ "Croatia's opposition leader stepping down after vote defeat".
  24. ^ "HDZ's Andrej Plenkovic ready to form new government in Croatia | bne IntelliNews". 6 July 2020.
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