2020 Croatian parliamentary election

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2020 Croatian parliamentary election
Croatia
← 2016 5 July 2020 2024 →

All 151 seats of the Croatian Parliament
76 seats needed for a majority
Turnout46.44% Decrease 6.15pp
Party Leader % Seats ±
HDZ-led coalition Andrej Plenković 37.26 66 +5
Restart Coalition Davor Bernardić 24.87 41 -4
DPMŠ-led coalition Miroslav Škoro 10.89 16 New
Most Božo Petrov 7.39 8 -5
Green–Left Collective leadership 6.99 7 New
SIP–Smart–Focus Dalija Orešković 3.98 3 +3
HNS-LD Predrag Štromar 1.30 1 -8
Reformists Radimir Čačić 1.01 1 0
Minority lists
SDSS Milorad Pupovac [nb 1] 3 0
HMDK Róbert Jankovics [nb 1] 1 0
Kali Sara Veljko Kajtazi [nb 1] 1 0
Independents [nb 2] [nb 1] 3 0
This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
Croatian Parliamentary Election Results 2020.svg
Results of the election in each of the ten electoral districts of Croatia: the party with the plurality of votes in each electoral unit.
  HDZ   Restart
Prime Minister before Subsequent Prime Minister
Andrej Plenković
HDZ
Andrej Plenković
HDZ

The 2020 Croatian parliamentary election took place on 5 July 2020.[1] They were the tenth parliamentary elections since the first multi-party elections in 1990 and elected the 151 members of the Croatian Parliament. 140 Members of Parliament were elected from geographical electoral districts in Croatia, three MPs were chosen by the Croatian diaspora and eight MPs came from the ranks of citizens registered as belonging to any of the 22 constitutionally recognized national minorities.[a]

During April 2020, there had been widespread media speculation that the election would be called earlier than originally planned, due to the uncertainty created by the still-ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).[2] Namely, though the spread of the virus had been brought under control by that time, fears still persisted that the number of infected cases could once again begin to rise in autumn and that this could, therefore, impede or even prevent the holding of the election.[3] Thus, several prominent members of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) – the senior partner in the ruling coalition, (including Speaker of the Parliament Gordan Jandroković) had voiced their support for the proposal that the elections be held some time during the summer.[4][5][6] In addition, in early May several sources from within both the ruling HDZ and the opposition Social Democratic Party (SDP) stated that parliament could be dissolved as early as mid-May, with elections then taking place in late June or early July.[7] On 14 May 2020, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković confirmed that the government had indeed reached an agreement with the parliamentary opposition on the holding of an early election and the dissolution of parliament thus took place on 18 May.[8][9] This entailed that President Zoran Milanović had to formally call the election by 17 July 2020 at the latest.

In the elections, the ruling Christian-democratic HDZ faced its main challenge from the centre-left Restart Coalition chaired by SDP leader Davor Bernardić, which consists of the SDP and several smaller parties (such as the Croatian Peasant Party, Civic-Liberal Alliance, Croatian Party of Pensioners and Istrian Democratic Assembly).[10][11] In addition, opinion polls had shown that a conservative coalition led by 2019 presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro – consisting of Škoro's own Homeland Movement party, some of the parties of the Croatian Sovereignists coalition and several other smaller right-wing parties[12] – would become the third-largest grouping in parliament, while the centre-right Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) – which finished a strong third in both the 2015 and 2016 elections, and which had supported Škoro's presidential campaign, could be reduced to the role of a minor parliamentary party. Also, the Green–Left Coalition, consisting of We Can!, the New Left, the Worker's Front, ORaH, Zagreb is OURS and For the City, were expected to enter the parliament for the first time.[13]

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections.

Background[edit]

In the previous parliamentary election, held on 11 September 2016, the center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won an upset plurality of seats - receiving 61 MPs in the parliament, while the opposition People's Coalition won 54 seats.[14] Therefore, HDZ chairman Andrej Plenković began talks on the formation of a governing majority with the third-placed Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) party, as well as with MPs representing national minorities. Meanwhile, as a result of the defeat of his coalition the SDP chairman (and People's Coalition Prime Ministerial candidate), Zoran Milanović, announced his withdrawal from politics.[15] A few weeks after the election, HDZ and Most successfully concluded their coalition talks and agreed to form a government that would rely on the outside support of the 8 Members of Parliament representing the national minorities. As a result, on 10 October 2016, Plenković presented 91 signatures of support from MPs to President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and she, therefore, proceeded to give him a 30-day mandate (expiring on 9 November 2016) to form a government. Thereafter, Parliament formally convened on 14 October 2016 with the election of Most chairman Božo Petrov as a Speaker, while a parliamentary vote held on 19 October 2016 confirmed the proposed Cabinet of Andrej Plenković by a vote of 91 in favor, 45 against and 3 abstentions.[16] Thus, Plenković became the 12th Prime Minister of Croatia, while his cabinet became the fourteenth to hold the office since the first multi-party election took place in 1990 – while Croatia was still a constituent republic of SFR Yugoslavia.

Most left the governing coalition in April 2017, amid a disagreement with the HDZ over Finance Minister Zdravko Marić's alleged withholding of information relating to financial irregularities in Agrokor - one of Croatia's largest firms, which had brought about a crisis due to Agrokor not being able to pay back its loans. Thus, as the HDZ-led government was left without a clear parliamentary majority (and a no-confidence vote in Marić was only narrowly avoided by a 75–75 split vote in Parliament), the possibility of an early election (the third in 18 months) greatly increased during May. However, in June the Plenković government managed to regain a parliamentary majority by forming a new cabinet, which included members of the center-left Croatian People's Party - Liberal Democrats (HNS-LD). Yet, the decision to enter into government with the HDZ - made by the HNS-LD's central body, was quite unexpected and thus immediately created a split within the HNS-LD. Namely, only five of the party's nine MPs decided to support the newly-formed coalition, while the remaining four (including former party chair Vesna Pusić) opted instead to form a new political party - named the Civic-Liberal Alliance (Glas), and remain in the opposition.[citation needed]

Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his HDZ party have faced criticism from numerous activists, public figures and political opponents for allegedly dissolving the Parliament several months in advance in order to avoid holding elections during a major economic crisis (caused by the COVID-19 pandemic), which is expected to have a severe impact on Croatia in autumn, once the financial losses in the tourism sector are included in economic projections.[citation needed]

Many citizens of Zagreb have accused the government and the ruling HDZ party of leaving them unprotected for several months by dissolving the Parliament and by failing to adopt the necessary legal measures to deal with the earthquake damage before doing so. Namely, instead of pursuing the adoption of a set of emergency laws, the government has decided to delay any new legal framework on this issue by at least 3 to 6 months. This caused activists from several public platforms - mainly from Green-Left coalition, to gathered on St. Mark's Square on 17 May 2020, where they remained for 24 hours in order to protest against the resolution on the early dissolution of parliament.[17]

As soon as parliament was dissolved the HDZ's local branch in the city of Vukovar (the site of one of the most major and emotionally symbolic battles in the Croatian War of Independence) decided to cut its ties with the party's central organization, claiming that they felt that their city has been misused for political gain and that the government had also failed to provide it with opportunities for economic development. Thus, this former branch of the HDZ will contest the election as part of some other coalition.[18]

Outgoing 9th Assembly of Parliament[edit]

The following is a partisan makeup of the 9th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament as of 18 May 2020:[19]

On 18 May 2020, the 9th Assembly dissolved itself by a vote of 105 in favor.[20]

Electoral system[edit]

Geographic electoral districts (I-X)

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected from 10 geographical and two special electoral districts:[21]

Opinion polls[edit]

The following graph depicts the evolution of standings of the two main political parties and three other parties in the poll average since last parliamentary elections.

Polling average
Major parties
  SDP
  HDZ
Minor parties
  DPMŠ
  MOST
  ŽZ
  Others/Undecided
Events
  Elections


Seat predictions[edit]

(excluding electoral districts XI and XII)   Exit poll

Date of publication Polling Firm HDZ Restart Coalition DPMŠ-led coalition Most Green-Left ŽZ HNS BM 365 IDS P-IP NS–R NLMP Lead
5 Jul 2020 Final Results 66 41 16 8 7 - 1 - [e] 3 1 [e] 25
5 Jul 2020 IPSOS 19:00 UTC+2 61 44 16 8 8 - - - [e] 3 - [e] 17
Average 53 57 18 7 4 - - - [e] 1 - [e] 4
4 Jul 2020 IPSOS 52 51 18 9 6 - - - [e] 3 1 [e] 1
2 Jul 2020 Promocija plus 55 56 18 6 3 1 - - [e] 1 - [e] 1
29 Jun 2020 2x1 komunikacije 51 63 17 6 2 - 1 - [e] - - [e] 12
27 Jun 2020 Promocija plus 54 60 18 5 2 1 - - [e] - - [e] 6
13 Jun 2020 2x1 komunikacije 52 64 15 8 - - 1 - [e] - - [e] 12
15 May 2020 2x1 komunikacije 54 64 14 3 - - - 1 3 - - 1 10


Results[edit]

Results of the election based on the majority of votes in each municipality of Croatia and Zagreb's four electoral districts
  HDZ-led coalition
  Restart Coalition
  HNS–LD
  DPMŠ-led coalition
  NS–R
  Enough of Robbery
  Lacković independent list
  SIP–Pametno–Fokus
Results by municipality, showing vote share of the winning party.

The ruling HDZ obtained an upset victory over the Restart Coalition, who had previously been leading in opinion polls for several weeks prior to the elections. The HDZ likely received a boost from public approval over its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic also caused voter turnout to be the lowest since the first democratic elections in 1990, with under half of registered voters participating.

Croatie Sabor 2020.svg
Party Votes % Seats +/–
HDZHSLSHDSHDSSB 621,035 37.26 66 +5
SDP–HSS–GLAS–IDS–HSU–SNAGA–PGS 414,645 24.87 41 –4
DPMŠHKSHRASTBzHZL−SU 181,493 10.89 16 New
Bridge of Independent Lists 123,194 7.39 8 –5
Green–Left (M!RFNLORaH) 116,483 6.99 7 New
SIP–Smart–Focus 66,399 3.98 3 +3
Enough of Robbery 37,628 2.26 0 –8
Croatian People's Party – Liberal Democrats 21,727 1.30 1 –8
People's Party – Reformists 16,900 1.01 1 0
Bandić Milan 365 - Labour and Solidarity Party 9,897 0.59 0 –1
Croatian Civic Party 7,399 0.44 0 0
Right League (NHR and HSP) 7,266 0.44 0 New
DemocratsHLRI 6,594 0.40 0 New
Authentic Croatian Party of Rights 5,343 0.32 0 0
Pensioners Together Bloc 5,268 0.32 0 0
Croatian Democratic Party 2,465 0.15 0 0
Strength of Slavonia and Baranja 2,294 0.14 0 New
Socialist Labour Party of Croatia 2,149 0.13 0 0
Union of Kvarner 2,044 0.12 0 New
Movement for a Modern Croatia 1,307 0.08 0 0
My Beloved Croatia 978 0.06 0 New
Authentic Croatian Peasant Party 958 0.06 0 0
BDSH–HBPS 768 0.05 0 0
Croatian Party of the Future 732 0.04 0 New
Croatian Civil Resistance Party 714 0.04 0 New
Independent List of Bura 626 0.04 0 New
Free Croatia 605 0.04 0 0
Croatian Perspective Party 576 0.03 0 0
Croatian Community Party 405 0.02 0 New
Croatian Party of Order 338 0.02 0 0
Alphabet of Democracy 219 0.01 0 New
Independents 8,524 0.51 0 –1
National minorities 8 0
Invalid/blank votes 38,713
Total 1,705,686 100 151 0
Registered voters/turnout 3,672,555 46.44
Source: Izbori
Popular vote
HDZ
37.3%
Restart
24.9%
DPMŠ
10.9%
Most
7.4%
Green–Left Coalition
7.0%
Smart and Focus
4.0%
Enough of Robbery
2.3%
HNS – LD
1.3%
Reformisti
1.0%
Bandić Milan 365
0.6%
Others
3.3%
Seat totals
HDZ
43.7%
Restart
27.2%
DPMŠ
10.6%
Most
5.3%
Green–Left Coalition
4.6%
Smart and Focus
2.0%
HNS – LD
0.7%
Reformisti
0.7%
Minorities
5.3%

Aftermath[edit]

Acknowledging his party's defeat in the legislative elections, Davor Bernardić stepped down as the leader of Social Democrats.[22]

On 6 July 2020, HDZ leader Andrej Plenković announced that he had collected the support of the necessary 76 MPs needed to form a government, following coalition negotiations. He announced that he had received support from his party and allies, the HNS – LD, the NS-R, and all 8 representatives of the national minorities.[23]

See also[edit]

Notes[edit]

  1. ^ Albanian, Austrian, Bosnian, Bulgarian, Czech, German, Hungarian, Italian, Jewish, Macedonian, Montenegrin, Polish, Roma, Romanian, Russian, Rusyn, Serbian, Slovak, Slovenian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach
  2. ^
    • Vladimir Bilek - Czech and Slovak
    • Robert Jankovics - Hungarian
    • Veljko Kajtazi - Austrian, Bulgarian, German, Jewish, Polish, Romani, Romanian, Rusyn, Russian, Turkish, Ukrainian and Vlach
    • Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj - Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian
    • Furio Radin - Italian
  3. ^
    • Mario Habek
    • Ana Komparić Devčić
    • Željko Lacković
    • Ivica Mišić
    • Zdravko Ronko
    • Tomislav Saucha
  4. ^
  5. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p with Restart coalition
Footnotes
  1. ^ a b c d Differing election system
  2. ^ Vladimir Bilek (Czech and Slovak seat), Ermina Lekaj Prljaskaj (Albanian, Bosniak, Macedonian, Montenegrin and Slovenian seat), Furio Radin (Italian seat)

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Croatian president sets parliamentary vote for July 5". ABC News. Associated Press. 20 May 2020. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  2. ^ "Puhovski o nagađanjima kada će biti izbori". vijesti.hrt.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  3. ^ "'Nema se što čekati': Poznato kad bismo mogli na parlamentarne izbore". tportal.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  4. ^ "Branko Bačić nema ništa protiv izbora u srpnju: 'Da se mene pita ja bih ih odmah raspisao'". dnevno.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  5. ^ "JANDROKOVIĆ: "Izbori početkom ljeta su sigurniji, nego se izložiti riziku jeseni"". nacional.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  6. ^ "Anušić: Realno je da izbori budu na ljeto". glasistre.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  7. ^ "HDZ uz podršku SDP-a raspušta Sabor već u svibnju, a parlamentarni izbori održavaju se najkasnije u srpnju?". narod.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  8. ^ "Izbori najkasnije 12. srpnja. Plenković: Čuo sam se s Milanovićem, sve je na njemu". index.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  9. ^ "Sabor koji se upravo raspustio zasjedao je 421 dan, a zastupnici su odradili 1702 točke". vecernji.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  10. ^ "Predstavljena oporbena "Restart" koalicija: "Naše ime je naš program. Ovo je stožer za obranu Hrvatske od HDZ-a"". dnevnik.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  11. ^ "IDS dio koalicije- Restart prihvatio uvjete za koaliranje". Glas Istre HR.
  12. ^ "Zapeli pregovori Škore sa Suverenistima i Mostom". index.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  13. ^ Gregoret, Vijesti hr, Damira. "EKSKLUZIVNO! RTL donosi rezultate istraživanje političkih preferencija po izbornim jedinicama". Vijesti.hr.
  14. ^ "Oni su pobjednici u svojim izbornim jedinicama". dnevnik.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  15. ^ "Zoran Milanović podnio ostavku na mjesto čelnika SDP-a". evarazdin.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  16. ^ "Dobili smo Vladu, Plenković je postao novi premijer, podržao ga je 91 zastupnik dok je 45 bilo protiv". telegram.hr. Retrieved 20 May 2020.
  17. ^ "'ZAGREB VAM OVO NEĆE ZABORAVITI!' Ogorčeni čelnici stranaka ljevice prosvjeduju na Markovu trgu, najavljuju da će tamo ostati do sutra". jutarnji.hr. Retrieved 21 May 2020.
  18. ^ "Koliko je ovaj snažan udar iz Vukovara opasan za HDZ na izborima". Telegram.hr.
  19. ^ "Stranački sastav Hrvatskog sabora 18-5-2020" (PDF). izbori.hr. Retrieved 28 May 2020.
  20. ^ "9th Croatian Parliament dissolved". sabor.hr. Retrieved 19 May 2020.
  21. ^ Electoral system IPU
  22. ^ https://news.yahoo.com/croatias-opposition-leader-stepping-down-123436600.html
  23. ^ https://www.intellinews.com/hdz-s-andrej-plenkovic-ready-to-form-new-government-in-croatia-186948/

External links[edit]