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2010 United States Senate election in Florida

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The 2010 United States Senate election in Florida will take place on November 2, 2010 along with other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

First-term Senator Mel Martinez was elected in a very close race against Democrat Betty Castor in 2004 with 49% of the vote. Martinez is a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Bush administration and chairman of the Republican National Committee for the 2007–2008 election cycle. Martinez announced on December 2, 2008 that he will not seek a second term to the Senate,[1] and will resign prior to the end of his term.[2] Polls indicated that he may have faced a tight race.

Democratic primary

Background

Many Democratic politicians have been mentioned as potential candidates for the race. Two of them, Representatives Debbie Wasserman Schultz[3] and Robert Wexler,[4] announced in 2008 that they would not run.

Congressman Kendrick Meek was the first Democrat to declare his intention to run.[5] Upon Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink's decision not to run,[6] State Senator Dan Gelber formed an exploratory committee.[7] However, Gelber ultimately decided not to run, so as to avoid a divisive primary. Gelber has announced that he will Twitter throughout the legislative sessions as a pledge to demonstrate transparency in government.[8] Meanwhile, Meek has enlisted the aid of former President Bill Clinton, who will host a fundraiser for him in Jacksonville.[9] Term limited North Miami mayor Kevin Burns, who is openly gay, has also announced his candidacy for the Senate seat.[10]

Candidates

Announced

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

Meek

Polling

Poll Source Dates Administered Meek Boyd* Gelber* Iorio* Klein* Brown* Sink*
Quinnipiac August 19, 2009 18% - - - 12% 9% -
Quinnipiac June 12, 2009 18% - - - 8% 12% -
Mason Dixon May 14–18, 2009 26%
Quinnipiac April 16, 2009 16% - 5% 15% 8% - -
Quinnipiac February 18, 2009 16% - 5% 16% 14% - -
Research 2000 January 26–28, 2009 17% 8% 3%
Quinnipiac January 21, 2009 13% 8% 5% - 9% - 15%

*Declined to seek nomination **Has not announced candidacy

Republican primary

Background

Upon Senator Martinez's announcement that he would not run for reelection, early speculation surrounded former Governor Jeb Bush.[23] It was thought that if Bush decided to run, other potential Republican candidates would allow Bush to run uncontested. After consideration, Bush decided not to run.[24]

Former House Speaker Marco Rubio was the first Republican to enter the race back in May but the National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn has announced the NRSC's endorsement of Charlie Crist [25]. Other Republicans mentioned as potential candidates include Florida House Majority Leader Adam Hasner[4], Representatives Connie Mack IV, and Dr. Belinda Noah, a prominent lawyer and adjunct law professor. Bob Smith, a former United States Senator from New Hampshire, announced he is running for the seat.[26] Joe Scarborough, a former Congressman and current MSNBC TV host, told the Sarasota Herald-Tribune that he may run for office again, and was considering running for this seat,[27] though an MSNBC spokesman refuted that Scarborough might run.[28] On the air, while interviewing White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Scarborough dismissed the idea that he would run.[29]

In August 2009, Mel Martinez retired before the end of his term, leaving Crist in the position to appoint a replacement, George LeMieux, a Republican regarded as a placeholder for Crist. Rubio stated, "Florida deserves better." Democrat, Kendrick Meek expressed disappointment as well, asserting that Crist should have appointed someone qualified rather than the top names "in his cell phone." The Democratic Party of Florida issued an email the same day titled, "George LeMieux (R-Cronyism)", echoing the bipartisan disapproval of Crist's choice, who was the Deputy Attorney General under Crist, and his Chief of Staff.

The race has also turned into an interesting referendum on the Republican Party of Florida. State GOP Chairman Jim Greer has drawn criticism for his support of Charlie Crist (though the state party has not officially made any endorsements) [30] and Marco Rubio has won about a dozen County GOP straw-polls, some of them by more than 90% margins.[31]

State Senator Steve Oelrich claimed that because he endorsed Rubio, and because he opposed Crist on another initiative, Crist vetoed a project of Oelrich's as political payback.[32] Rubio supported this claim via Twitter.[33]

Candidates

Announced

Potential

Declined

Endorsements

The following are endorsements made before the primary

Crist

Rubio

Polling

Poll Source Dates Administered Charlie Crist Marco Rubio Undecided/Other
Rasmussen Reports December 14, 2009 43% 43% 14%
Zogby/AIF/Sayfie December 7–11, 2009 45% 36% 16%
Research 2000 November 16–18, 2009 47% 37% 16%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2009 49% 35% 12%
Quinnipiac October 12–18, 2009 50% 35% 12%
Rasmussen August 19, 2009 53% 31% 16%
Quinnipiac August 12–17, 2009 55% 26% 19%
Mason Dixon June 24–26, 2009 51% 23% 26%
Quinnipiac June 2–7, 2009 54% 23% 23%
Strategic Vision May 29–31, 2009 59% 22% 19%
Mason Dixon May 14–18, 2009 53% 18% 29%
Research 2000 January 26–28, 2009 57% 4% 39%

General election polling

Crist vs. Meek

Poll Source Dates Administered Charlie Crist (R) Kendrick Meek (D)
Rasmussen Reports December 14, 2009 42% 36%
Research 2000 November 16–18, 2009 50% 33%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2009 46% 34%
Quinnipiac October 12–19, 2009 51% 31%
Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2009 48% 29%
Rasmussen Reports June 22, 2009 46% 28%
Mason Dixon May 14–18, 2009 55% 24%
Research 2000 January 26–28, 2009 49% 28%

Rubio vs Meek

Poll Source Dates Administered Marco Rubio (R) Kendrick Meek (D)
Rasmussen Reports December 14, 2009 49% 35%
Research 2000 November 16–18, 2009 30% 38%
Rasmussen Reports October 20, 2009 46% 31%
Quinnipiac October 12–19, 2009 33% 36%
Rasmussen Reports August 19, 2009 43% 30%
Research 2000 January 26–28, 2009 22% 31%

Rubio vs Meek vs Crist

Poll Source Dates Administered Marco Rubio (R) Kendrick Meek (D) Charlie Crist (I)
Research 2000 November 16–18, 2009 27% 31% 32%

References

  1. ^ Dana Bash and Ted Barrett (2008-12-02). "Sen. Martinez won't seek reelection". CNN.com. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  2. ^ Drucker, David M. (2009-02-02). "Martinez Eyeing Early Exit as Crist Looks at Senate Seat". Roll Call. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  3. ^ a b Cillizza, Chris (2008-12-03). "Florida's Martinez Says He Will Retire in 2010". Washington Post. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  4. ^ a b c d e Gibson, William E. (2008-12-02). "Adam Hasner for U.S. Senate? How about Rubio, McCollum, or Gelber?". Sun Sentinel. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  5. ^ a b c d "Fla. Rep. Meek to run for Senate". USA Today. 2009-01-12. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help) Cite error: The named reference "meek" was defined multiple times with different content (see the help page).
  6. ^ a b "Sink Not Running For Senate". Politico. 2009-01-09. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  7. ^ Deslatte, Aaron (2009-01-). "With Sink out, Gelber getting into the Senate race". Orlando Sentinel. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |date= (help); Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  8. ^ Dan Gelber (February 23, 2009). "Follow Legislative Session Through My New Twitter Page". Dan Gelber Blog.
  9. ^ Adam Smith (March 4, 2009). "Bill Clinton raising more money for Meek". St. Petersburg Times.
  10. ^ "Ex-North Miami mayor to seek Senate Seat". Miami Harold. 2009-02-16. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  11. ^ http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanList.asp
  12. ^ "Ex-North Miami mayor to seek Senate seat". Miami Herald. 2009-02-16.
  13. ^ "Race for Meek's seat begins". The Miami Herald. 2009-01-13. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  14. ^ http://www.runforoffice.org/rails/youngandrunning?query=FL
  15. ^ http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/10/kendrick-meeks-version-of-marco-rubio.html
  16. ^ http://www.palmbeachpost.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/floridapolitics/entries/2009/02/04/rod_smith_considering_us_senat.html
  17. ^ a b Wilson, Reid (2009-01-28). "McCollum, Boyd Say No To Senate Bid". The Hill. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  18. ^ http://www.politico.com/blogs/scorecard/0509/Iorio_not_running_for_Senate_in_Florida.html?showall
  19. ^ http://www.postonpolitics.com/2009/05/rep-ron-klein-rules-out-senate-bid/
  20. ^ http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/news/politics/broward/blog/2009/06/klein_and_wasserman_schultz_en.html
  21. ^ http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/news_politics/2009/06/klein-wassermanschultz-endorse-meek-.html
  22. ^ http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/63527-rep-corrine-brown-passes-on-senate-bid
  23. ^ Ambinder, Marc (2008-12-02). "Jeb Bush Ponders Florida Senate Run". The Atlantic. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  24. ^ a b "Jeb Bush not running for Senate". CNN.com. 2009-01-06. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  25. ^ [1]
  26. ^ a b Blake, Aaron (2009-01-29). "Former Sen. Bob Smith Weighs a Run... In Florida". The Hill. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  27. ^ a b Wallace, Jeremy (2009-02-09). "Question: 'Morning Joe' or Sen. Joe?". Sarasota Herald Tribune. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  28. ^ Kraushaar, Josh (2009-02-09). "A Scarborough Senate campaign?". Politico. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  29. ^ Barr, Andy (2009-02-10). "Gibbs grills 'Senator Scarborough'". Politico. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  30. ^ http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2009/11/club_pac_endorses_rubio_in_fls.php
  31. ^ http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574525651614413982.html
  32. ^ http://m.gainesville.com/gv/db_3613/contentdetail.htm;jsessionid=36FB43AA1C352C5A398824D27F04BCE2?contentguid=rGANTzH0&pn=0&full=true
  33. ^ http://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/2125170403
  34. ^ http://www.bobcoggins.com/
  35. ^ "Florida Governor Considers Senate Run". CNN.com. 2009-02-02. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  36. ^ Bill Cotterell. Fla. GOP: Crist will be next U.S. senator May 10, 2009. Pensacola News Journal.
  37. ^ http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanDetail.asp?account=50493
  38. ^ http://election.dos.state.fl.us/candidate/CanDetail.asp?account=50190
  39. ^ Glenn Thrush (2009-04-09). "Snowbird Smith Running in Florida". Politico.com.
  40. ^ Man, Anthony (2009-01-14). "Marion Thorpe sets sights on U.S. Senate". Sun Sentinel. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  41. ^ "Linda Vasquez Littlefield Announces Bid for U.S. Senate". PRNewswire-USNewswire. 2009-01-07. Retrieved 2009-01-12.
  42. ^ [2]
  43. ^ [3]
  44. ^ Associated Press (April 2, 2009). "US Rep. Mack won't seek Fla. Senate seat". Miami Herald.
  45. ^ Cotterell, Bill (2009-01-10). "Florida GOP gathers to plan for 2010". Tallahassee Democrat. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  46. ^ a b c d e f g h http://www.charliecrist.com/news/endorsements
  47. ^ http://www.charliecrist.com/news/press-releases/congressman-connie-mack-endorses-charlie-crist-for-senate
  48. ^ http://www.charliecrist.com/news/press-releases/congressman-vern-buchanan-endorses-charlie-crist-for-united-states-senate
  49. ^ http://www.charliecrist.com/news/press-releases/miami-dade-county-mayor-carlos-alvarez-endorses-charlie-crist-for-senate
  50. ^ a b c http://www.charliecrist.com/news/press-releases/florida-house-gop-leaders-endorse-charlie-crist-for-the-united-states-senate
  51. ^ http://www.charliecrist.com/news/press-releases/puerto-rican-governor-luis-fortuno-endorses-charlie-crist-for-senate
  52. ^ [4]
  53. ^ Wilson, Reid (September 17, 2009), "Brown-Waite endorses Rubio in Senate race", The Hill, retrieved 2009-09-17{{citation}}: CS1 maint: date and year (link)
  54. ^ a b http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0609/23754.html
  55. ^ [5]
  56. ^ http://www.marcorubio.com/former-u-s-house-majority-leader-dick-armey-endorses-marco-rubio-for-u-s-senate/
  57. ^ http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2009/10/05/2089960.aspx
  58. ^ http://marklevinshow.com/sectional.asp?id=32930#
  59. ^ http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/2256630/posts
  60. ^ http://politics.theatlantic.com/2009/05/2010_the_friskier_jeb_bush_endorses_marco_rubio.php
  61. ^ http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2009/11/jeb-jr-and-george-p-bush-raising-money-for-marco-rubio.html
  62. ^ http://www.gainesville.com/article/20091105/ARTICLES/911059853/1002/NEWS01?Title=Crist-Rubio-spar-at-local-Republican-fundraiser
  63. ^ http://vodpod.com/watch/1862816-steve-precourt-endorses-marco-rubio-at-orlando-tea-party
  64. ^ http://www.reuters.com/article/pressRelease/idUS211011+05-Nov-2009+PRN20091105
  65. ^ http://www.marcorubio.com/the-facts/
  66. ^ http://www.clubforgrowth.org/2009/11/club_pac_endorses_rubio_in_fls.php