2020 Croatian parliamentary election

2020 Croatian parliamentary election

On or before 17 July 2020

All 151 seats of the Croatian Parliament 76 seats needed for a majority

Party Leader Current seats HDZ Andrej Plenković Restart Coalition Davor Bernardić Most Božo Petrov BM 365 Milan Bandić HNS-LD Ivan Vrdoljak SDSS Milorad Pupovac NLM Ante Pranić IDS Boris Miletić HDS Goran Dodig DPMŠ-led coalition Miroslav Škoro ŽZ Ivan Sinčić HDSSB Branimir Glavaš HSLS Dario Hrebak Democrats Mirando Mrsić Independents for Croatia Bruna Esih PH Ivan Lovrinović SIP Ivan Pernar NS-R Radimir Čačić Incumbent Prime Minister Andrej Plenković HDZ

The next Croatian parliamentary elections will be held on or before 17 July 2020. They will be the tenth parliamentary elections since the first multi-party elections in 1990 and will elect the 151 members of the Croatian Parliament.

Since April 2020, there had been widespread media speculation that the election would be called earlier than originally planned, due to the uncertainty created by the still-ongoing worldwide pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Namely, though the spread of the virus had been brought under control by late April, fears still persist that the number of infected cases could once again begin to rise in autum and that this could therefore impede or even prevent the holding of the election. Thus, several prominent members of the Croatian Democratic Union - the senior partner in the ruling coalition, (including Speaker of the Parliament Gordan Jandroković) had voiced their support for the proposal that the elections be held some time during the summer (most likely in early July). Meanwhile, Prime Minister Andrej Plenković stated that elections would be called when the epidemiological situation in the country is deemed favourable enough. In addition, in early May several sources from within both the ruling HDZ and the opposition SDP stated that parliament could be dissolved as early as 15 May, with elections then taking place in late June or early July. On 14 May 2020 Plenković confirmed that the government had indeed reached an agreement with the parliamentary opposition on the holding of an early election and that the dissolution of parliament would take place on 18 May. This entails that the election itself would have to be held by 17 July 2020.

In the elections, the ruling Christian democratic Croatian Democratic Union is expected to face its main challenge from the centre-left Restart Coalition chaired by SDP leader Davor Bernardić, which is currently intended to consist of at least the Social Democratic Party and several smaller parties (such as the Croatian Peasant Party, Civic-Liberal Alliance and Croatian Party of Pensioners). In addition, opinion polls conducted until May 2020 have shown that a conservative coalition led by former presidential candidate Miroslav Škoro - cosisting of Škoro's own Homeland Movement party and the parties of the Croatian Sovereignists coalition (which was formed to contest the 2019 European elections), may become the third-largest grouping in parliament, while the centre-right Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) – which finished third in the 2016 elections and supported Škoro's presidential campaign, could be reduced to being the fourth-largest parliamentary party. However, it is also possible that Škoro's existing coalition could be expanded to also include Most and several more smaller centre-right to right-wing parties.

Background

In the previous parliamentary election, held on 11 September 2016, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) won an upset plurality of seats - receiving 61 MPs in the parliament, while the opposition People's Coalition won 54 seats. Therefore, HDZ chairman Andrej Plenković began talks on the formation of a governing majority with the third-placed Bridge of Independent Lists (Most) party, as well as with MPs representing national minorities. Meanwhile, as a result of the defeat of his coalition the SDP chairman (and People's Coalition Prime Ministerial candidate), Zoran Milanović, announced his withdrawal from politics. A few weeks after the election, HDZ and Most successfully concluded their coalition talks and agreed to form a government which would rely on the outside support of the 8 Members of Parliament representing the national minorities. As a result, on 10 October 2016 Plenković presented 91 signatures of support from MPs to President Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and she therefore proceeded to give him a 30-day mandate (expiring on 9 November 2016) to form a government. Thereafter, Parliament formally convened on 14 October 2016 with the election of Most chairman Božo Petrov as a Speaker, while a parliamentary vote held on 19 October 2016 confirmed the proposed Cabinet of Andrej Plenković by a vote of 91 in favor, 45 against and 3 abstentions. Thus, Plenković became the 12th Prime Minister of Croatia, while his cabinet became the fourteenth to hold office since the first multi-party election took place in 1990 - while Croatia was still a constituent republic of SFR Yugoslavia.

Most left the governing coalition in April 2017, amid a disagreement with the HDZ over Finance Minister Zdravko Marić's alleged withholding of information relating to financial irregularities in Agrokor - one of Croatia's largest firms, which had brought about a crisis due to Agrokor not being able to pay back its loans. Thus, as the HDZ-led government was left without a clear parliamentary majority (and a no-confidence vote in Marić was only narrowly avoided by a 75–75 split vote in Parliament), the possibility of an early election (the third in 18 months) greatly increased during May. However, in June the Plenković government managed to regain a parliamentary majority by forming a new cabinet, which included members of the centre-left HNS-LD. Yet, the decision to enter into government with the HDZ - made by the HNS-LD's central body, was quite unexpected and thus immediately created a split within the HNS-LD. Namely, only five of the party's nine MPs decided to support the newly-formed coalition, while the remaining four (including former party chair Vesna Pusić) opted instead to form a new political party - named the Civic-Liberal Alliance (Glas), and remain in the opposition.

On 11 May, the national-conservative Hrvatski suverenisti coalition (ECR Group in the EU Parliament)—that includes the parties HKS and HRAST— announced an electoral list with the national-conservative DPMŠ (ECR) in the upcoming national parliamentary election.

The centre-left SDP (S&D) will run on one list with the liberal HSS (RE), the centre-left HSU (S&D), the liberal GLAS (RE), and the SNAGA (*) in the upcoming national parliamentary election. The oppositional list will be called "Restart koalicija".

Promijenimo Hrvatsku (PH-*) and Živi zid (ŽZ) announce a common electoral list ahead of the upcoming national parliament election.

Electoral system

The 151 members of the Croatian Parliament are elected by three methods:

• 140 seats are elected in ten 14-seat constituencies (Constituencies I-X) by open list proportional representation (using a 5% electoral threshold) with seats allocated using the d'Hondt method
• 3 seats are elected in a special constituency (Constituency XI) for Croatian citizens and people of Croatian descent living overseas
• 8 seats are elected from a constituency for ethnic national minorities (Constituency XII): 3 seats for Serbs, 1 seat for Italians, 1 seat for Hungarians, 1 seat for Czechs and Slovaks, 1 seat for Albanians, Bosniaks, Macedonians, Montenegrins and Slovenes and 1 seat for Austrians, Bulgarians, Germans, Jews, Poles, Roma, Romanians, Rusyns, Russians, Turks, Ukrainians and Vlachs

Outgoing 9th Assembly of Parliament

Partisan makeup of the 9th Assembly of the Croatian Parliament (as of 3 September 2024)

Party	Seats	Government	Political position	Leader
Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ)	55	Government	Centre-right to Right-wing	Andrej Plenković (Prime Minister)
Social Democratic Party (SDP)	29	Opposition	Centre-left	Davor Bernardić
Bridge of Independent Lists (Most)	10	Opposition	Centre to Centre-right	Božo Petrov
Bandić Milan 365 - Labour and Solidarity Party (BM 365)	5	Supporting Government	Centre	Milan Bandić
Croatian Peasant Party (HSS)	5	Opposition	Centre-left	Krešo Beljak
Civic Liberal Alliance (Glas)	4	Opposition	Centre-left	Anka Mrak Taritaš
Croatian People's Party-Liberal Democrats (HNS)	4	Government	Centre	Ivan Vrdoljak
Independent Democratic Serb Party (SDSS)	3	Supporting Government	Centre-left	Milorad Pupovac
Independent Youth List (NLM)	3	Opposition	Centre	Ante Pranić
Istrian Democratic Assembly (IDS)	3	Opposition	Centre-left	Boris Miletić
Croatian Christian Democratic Party (HDS)	2	Supporting Government	Right-wing	Goran Dodig
Croatian Party of Pensioners (HSU)	2	Opposition	Centre-left	Silvano Hrelja
Human Shield (ŽZ)	2	Opposition	Syncretic	Ivan Vilibor Sinčić
Party of Ivan Pernar	1	Opposition	Syncretic	Ivan Pernar
Bruna Esih - Zlatko Hasanbegović: Independents for Croatia (NZH)	1	Opposition	Right-wing	Bruna Esih
Let's Change Croatia (PH)	1	Opposition	Centre	Ivan Lovrinović
Croatian Social Liberal Party (HSLS)	1	Supporting Government	Centre to Centre-right	Dario Hrebak
HRAST-Movement for Successful Croatia (Hrast)	1	Opposition	Right-wing	Ladislav Ilčić
Croatian Democratic Alliance of Slavonia and Baranja (HDSSB)	1	Supporting Government	Right-wing	Branimir Glavaš
People's Party - Reformists (NS-R)	1	Opposition	Centre	Radimir Čačić
POWER - People's and Civic Engagement Party (SNAGA)	1	Opposition	Syncretic	Goran Aleksić
Democrats (Demokrati)	1	Opposition	Centre-left	Mirando Mrsić
Bloc for Croatia (BZH)	1	Opposition	Right-wing	Zlatko Hasanbegović
Independent MPs representing national minorities supporting Government	5	Supporting Government	—
Other independent MPs Supporting Government	6	Supporting Government	—
Other independent MPs in Opposition	3	Opposition	—
Government total (with support)			82 of 151 (54.30%)
Opposition total			69 of 151 (45.70%)

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Croatian parliamentary election