2016 Manitoba general election

Manitoba general election, 2016
57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba; 29 seats needed for a majority
	Manitoba's 57 electoral districts, with results shown by riding. The cities of Brandon (top) and Winnipeg (bottom) are shown in insets.
Premier before election; Greg Selinger; New Democratic	Premier-designate ; Brian Pallister; Progressive Conservative

The 41st general election of Manitoba was held on April 19, 2016 to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba, Canada.^[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Greg Selinger, were defeated by the Progressive Conservative Party of Manitoba led by Brian Pallister, ending nearly 17 years of NDP reign.

At the time of the election, no party with the word "conservative" in the name governed any province or territory in Canada since the recent election in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.^[2] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.^[3] Under the federal fixed-term act, on January 1, 2015, the next federal election was tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus the next Manitoba election has been scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.^[4] The legislature was dissolved and writs or the election were dropped on March 16, 2016.^[5]

Campaign

The election was relatively unique within Canadian politics, in that opinion polling indicated that most voters were basing their decision on the local candidate in their riding or the party platform, not the performance of the leader. In most Canadian elections, such as the 2016 Saskatchewan election, the behaviour of the party leader was a stronger motivator for constituents when voting.^[6]

The campaigns of all three parties were based on themes of change, with even Selinger suggesting the incumbent NDP government would be able to respond to constituent concerns and change problematic policies in the leaders' debate.^[6] Opinion polling during the campaign suggested a lack of enthusiasm for all party leaders, and a general desire for change.^[7]

Election summary

**Summary of the April 19, 2016 Manitoba Legislature election**
Party		Leader	Candidates	Seats				Popular vote
Party		Leader	Candidates	2011	Dissol.	2016	+/-	Votes	%	% change
	Progressive Conservative	Brian Pallister	57	19	19	40	+21	231,157	53.20	+9.49
	New Democratic	Greg Selinger	57	37	35	14	-21	111,860	25.74	-20.42
	Liberal	Rana Bokhari	51	1	1	3	+2	61,869	14.24	+6.72
	Green	James Beddome	30	–	–	0	0	22,448	5.17	+2.65
	Manitoba Party	Gary Marshall	16	–	–	0	0	4,839	1.11	n/a
	Communist	Darrell Rankin	6	–	–	0	0	317	0.07	+0.03
	Independents		4	–	–	0	0	2,016	0.46	+0.41
	Vacant^[a]				2
Total			221	57	57

Summary results

↓
40	14	3
Progressive Conservative	New Democratic	Liberal

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

New Democrats

Progressive Conservatives

Opinion polls

Polling Firm	Last Date of Polling	Link	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP width=10% align="center"\| NDP	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Progressive Conservatives width=10% align="center"\| PC	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal width=10% align="center"\| Liberal	Green	Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Independents width=10% align="center"\| Other
Insights West	April 18, 2016	HTML	28	53	10	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 18, 2016	HTML	22	49	19	9	1
Forum Research	April 17, 2016	PDF	21	52	18	9
Mainstreet Research	April 14, 2016	HTML	26	55	11	9
Insights West	April 7, 2016	HTML	26	49	17	7	1
Insightrix Research	April 7, 2016	HTML	24	49	22	5
Mainstreet Research	April 5, 2016	HTML	24	50	17	9
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2016	PDF	28	46	20	6
Mainstreet Research	March 29, 2016	HTML	23	45	24	7
Mainstreet Research	March 19, 2016	HTML	24	44	24	7
Forum Research	March 13, 2016	PDF	22	46	23	8	1
Mainstreet Research	March 12, 2016	HTML	27	43	24	7
Mainstreet Research	February 20, 2016	HTML	21	50	23	6
Mainstreet Research	February 11, 2016	HTML	21	51	20	7
Mainstreet Research	January 25, 2016	HTML	20	52	20	9
Mainstreet Research	January 9, 2016	HTML	23	44	27	6
Insightrix Research	December 22, 2015	HTML	19	39	36	5	1
Probe Research Inc	December 15, 2015	PDF	22	43	29		6
Probe Research Inc	September 23, 2015	PDF	25	45	24		5
Probe Research Inc	June 27, 2015	PDF	29	46	19		5
Probe Research Inc	April 5, 2015	PDF	29	44	20		7
Probe Research Inc	December 12, 2014	HTML	26	48	19		7
Mainstreet Research	November 3, 2014	HTML	27	53	20
Probe Research Inc	October 1, 2014	HTML	30	42	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 19, 2014	HTML	32	45	16		7
Probe Research Inc	March 28, 2014	HTML	28	46	23		3
Insightrix Research	February 7, 2014	HTML	24	49	18	9
Probe Research Inc	December 27, 2013	PDF	26	48	20		6
Probe Research Inc	September 28, 2013	HTML	29	43	20		8
Probe Research Inc	June 26, 2013	PDF	28	46	17		10
Probe Research Inc	April 14, 2013	PDF	35	42	15		8
Probe Research Inc	December 14, 2012	PDF	39	43	11		7
Probe Research Inc	October 14, 2012	PDF	45	38	11		6
Probe Research Inc	June 29, 2012	PDF	44	40	13		3
Probe Research Inc	April 4, 2012	PDF	40	45	10		5
2011 election	October 4, 2011		46.2	43.7	7.5	2.5	0.1

Candidates by riding

Note that names in bold type represent Cabinet members, while italics represent party leaders.

Northern Manitoba

Westman/Parkland

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Agassiz | |Courtney Lucas
445 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Eileen Clarke
5,219 | | | |Robert Smith
406 | |Damian Dempsey (Ind.)
903 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Stu Briese |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Arthur-Virden | |Lorne Topolniski
592 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Doyle Piwniuk
6,001 | | | | | |Frank Godon (Manitoba)
828 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Doyle Piwniuk |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Brandon East | |Drew Caldwell
2,513 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Len Isleifson
3,651 | |Vanessa Hamilton
809 | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Drew Caldwell |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Brandon West | |Linda Ross
1,875 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Reg Helwer
5,603 | |William Moore
618 | | | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Reg Helwer |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Dauphin | |Darcy Scheller
1,759 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Brad Michaleski
4,438 | |Garry Gurke
468 | |Kate Storey
550 | |Darrell Inkster (Manitoba)
157 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Stan Struthers |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Riding Mountain | |Béla Gyarmati
596 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Greg Nesbitt
5,299 | |Jordan Fleury
1,013 | |Mark Olenick
776 | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Leanne Rowat |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Spruce Woods | |Amanda Chmelyk
670 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Cliff Cullen
5,178 | |Jaron Hart
496 | | | |Malcolm McKellar (Manitoba)
733 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Cliff Cullen |}

Central Manitoba

Eastman

Northwest Winnipeg

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Burrows | |Melanie Wight
1,766 | |Rae Wagner
1,009 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal| |Cindy Lamoureux
2,612 | |Garrett Bodnaryk
210 | |Tony Petrowski (Communist)
27 |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Melanie Wight |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Kildonan | |Dave Chomiak |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/PC| |Nic Curry | |Navdeep Khangura | |Steven Stairs
| |Gary Marshall (Manitoba) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Dave Chomiak |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Point Douglas |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Kevin Chief
2,789 (58.9%) | |Marsha Street
795 (16.8%) | |Althea Guiboche
852 (18%) | |Alberteen Spence
239 (5.0%) | |Frank Komarniski (Communist)
60 (1.3%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Kevin Chief |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|St. Johns |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Nahanni Fontaine | |Barbara Judt | |Noel Bernier | |Elizabeth Puchailo | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Gord Mackintosh |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|The Maples |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Mohinder Saran | |Kaur Sidhu | |Harbans Singh Brar | |John Redekopp | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Mohinder Saran |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Tyndall Park |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Ted Marcelino | |Naseer Warraich | |Aida Champagne | |Shane Neustaeter |
| |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Ted Marcelino |}

Northeast Winnipeg

West Winnipeg

Central Winnipeg

Template:Canadian politics/candlist header 4plus |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Garry-Riverview |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |James Allum
3,442 (37.9%) | |Jeannette Montufar
3,144 (34.6%) | |Johanna Wood
793 (18.8%) | |James Beddome
1,709 (18.8%) | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |James Allum |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Fort Rouge |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Wab Kinew
2,275 (36.8%) | |Audrey Gordon
1,649 (26.7%) | |Rana Bokhari
1,290 (20.9%) | |Grant Sharp
790 (12.8%) | |Matthew Ostrove (Manitoba)
136 (2.2%)
Paula Ducharme (Communist)
37 (0.6%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Jennifer Howard |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Logan |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Flor Marcelino
1,505 (40.4%) | |Allie Szarkiewicz
720 (19.3%) | |Peter Koroma
1,029 (27.6%) | |Jitendradas Loves-Life
297 (8%) | |Joe Chan (Manitoba)
135 (3.6%)
Cheryl-Anne Carr (Communist)
40 (1.1%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Flor Marcelino |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Minto |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Andrew Swan
2,925 (51.2%) | |Belinda Squance
1,012 (17.7%) | |Demetre Balaktsis
693 (12.1%) | |Martha Jo Willard
407 (7.1%) | |Andrew Taylor (Communist)
41 (0.7%)
Virgil Gil (Manitoba)
49 (0.9%)
Don Woodstock (Ind)
587 (10.3%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Andrew Swan |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|River Heights | |Shafagh Daneshfar
591 (5.9%) | |Tracey Maconachie
3,471 (34.5%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal| |Jon Gerrard
5,224 (51.9%) | |Michael Cardillo
778 (7.7%) | | |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/Liberal| |Jon Gerrard |- | style="background:whitesmoke;"|Wolseley |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Rob Altemeyer
3,022 (41.4%) | |Raquel Dancho
939 (12.9%) | |Shandi Strong
618 (8.8%) | |David Nickarz
2,638 (36.2%) | |Wayne Sturby (Manitoba)
77 (1.1%) |Template:Canadian politics/party colours/NDP| |Rob Altemeyer |}

South Winnipeg

|}

Notes

^ Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015.^[8] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

References

^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
^ http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/choices-are-clear-selinger-makes-april-19-manitoba-election-official-1.2819225
^ ^a ^b "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
^ "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.
^ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/Selingers-shuffle-making-the-best-of-a-bad-situation--301769811.html
^ "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
^ "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
^ http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Longtime-NDP-MLA-Nancy-Allan-announces-retirement-305366321.html
^ CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015
^ ^a ^b "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
^ "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

External links

Elections Manitoba

[9] Erin Selby (Southdale) and Peter Bjornson (Gimli) resigned their seats in 2015.^[8] No by-elections were called and their seats remained vacant.

[1] Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election. Retrieved June 24, 2012.

[2] Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).

[3] Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).

[4] Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).

[5] ttp://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/choices-are-clear-selinger-makes-april-19-manitoba-election-official-1.2819225

[globalelec-6] "Manitoba election results 2016". Global News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.

[7] "Manitobans go to the polls in provincial election". CBC News. April 19, 2016. Retrieved April 19, 2016.

[8] ttp://www.winnipegfreepress.com/opinion/columnists/Selingers-shuffle-making-the-best-of-a-bad-situation--301769811.html

[Rondeau-10] "Demoted Manitoba politician, Jim Rondeau, to leave politics". Global News. April 13, 2015. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

[Struthers-11] "Former Manitoba cabinet minister not running". Global News. May 13, 2015. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

[12] ttp://www.winnipegfreepress.com/local/Longtime-NDP-MLA-Nancy-Allan-announces-retirement-305366321.html

[13] CBC News Manitoba, 24-11-2015

[Rowat-14] "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection". Winnipeg Free Press. September 11, 2014. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

[15] "River East MLA Bonnie Mitchelson Announces Retirement". CJOB. October 17, 2014. {{cite news}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)

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