2016 United States presidential election in Arizona
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 County Results
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Arizona voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump, and running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine. Arizona has 11 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Notably, Maricopa County, the state's most populous county, went more Democratic than the state as a whole. The county had not voted for a Democrat since Harry S. Truman in 1948. Therefore, Trump's narrow win in the county suggested the Republican Party was losing ground in the state. In fact, the county and the state would go on to vote Democratic in 2020. Despite the rest of the country swinging to the right, Arizona decreased its margin of victory from 9.03% in 2012[2] to only 3.5% this year.
Primary elections
Democratic primary
Six candidates appeared on the Democratic presidential primary ballot:[3]
- Bernie Sanders
- Hillary Clinton
- Rocky De La Fuente
- Martin O'Malley (withdrawn)
- Henry Hewes
- Michael Steinberg
Opinion polling
Results
| Candidate | Popular vote | Estimated delegates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 262,459 | 56.3% | 42 | 6 | 48 |
| Bernie Sanders | 192,962 | 41.4% | 33 | 1 | 34 |
| Martin O'Malley (withdrawn) | 3,877 | 0.8% | |||
| Roque "Rocky" De La Fuente | 2,797 | 0.6% | |||
| Michael Steinberg | 2,295 | 0.5% | |||
| Henry Hewes | 1,845 | 0.4% | |||
| Uncommitted | — | 3 | 3 | ||
| Total | 466,235 | 100% | 75 | 10 | 85 |
| Source: The Green Papers, Arizona Secretary of State | |||||
- Detailed results per congressional district
| District | Total | Hillary Clinton | Bernie Sanders | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes | Delegates | Votes | % | Delegates | Votes | % | Delegates | |
| 1st district | 63,863 | 6 | 35,445 | 55.50% | 3 | 26,267 | 41.13% | 3 |
| 2nd district | 78,237 | 8 | 42,797 | 54.70% | 4 | 33,891 | 43.32% | 4 |
| 3rd district | 51,520 | 5 | 30,298 | 58.81% | 3 | 20,091 | 39.00% | 2 |
| 4th district | 37,273 | 4 | 15,289 | 55.43% | 2 | 20,662 | 41.02% | 2 |
| 5th district | 40,847 | 5 | 22,973 | 56.24% | 3 | 16,982 | 41.57% | 2 |
| 6th district | 50,465 | 6 | 29,266 | 57.99% | 4 | 20,259 | 40.14% | 2 |
| 7th district | 42,199 | 5 | 24,245 | 57.45% | 3 | 17,173 | 40.70% | 2 |
| 8th district | 46,491 | 5 | 27,672 | 59.52% | 3 | 17,651 | 37.97% | 2 |
| 9th district | 55,340 | 6 | 29,101 | 52.59% | 3 | 25,359 | 45.82% | 3 |
| At-large delegates | 466,235 | 16 | 262,459 | 56.29% | 9 | 192,962 | 41.39% | 7 |
| Pledged PLEOs | 466,235 | 9 | 262,459 | 56.29% | 5 | 192,962 | 41.39% | 4 |
| Total | 466,235 | 75 | 262,464 | 56.29% | 42 | 192,965 | 41.39% | 33 |
Republican primary
Fourteen candidates appeared on the Republican presidential primary ballot:[6]
- Jeb Bush (withdrawn)
- Ben Carson (withdrawn)
- Chris Christie (withdrawn)
- Ted Cruz
- Carly Fiorina (withdrawn)
- Lindsey Graham (withdrawn)
- Mike Huckabee (withdrawn)
- John Kasich
- George Pataki (withdrawn)
- Rand Paul (withdrawn)
- Marco Rubio (withdrawn)
- Rick Santorum (withdrawn)
- Tim Cook
- Donald Trump
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 286,743 | 45.95% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Ted Cruz | 172,294 | 27.61% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Marco Rubio (withdrawn) | 72,304 | 11.59% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| John Kasich | 65,965 | 10.57% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Carson (withdrawn) | 14,940 | 2.39% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 4,393 | 0.70% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 2,269 | 0.36% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 1,300 | 0.21% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 1,270 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 988 | 0.16% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 523 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Lindsey Graham (withdrawn) | 498 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Pataki (withdrawn) | 309 | 0.05% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Timothy Cook (withdrawn) | 243 | 0.04% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 624,039 | 100.00% | 58 | 0 | 58 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
Green primary
The Arizona Green Party held its primary on March 22. Jill Stein won with 82% of the vote, and the overall number of voters that took place in the primary saw an increase from 561 in 2012 to 770 in 2016.[7] Only two candidates qualified for the primary:[8]
| Arizona Green Party presidential primary, March 22, 2016[9] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | National delegates |
 Jill Stein
|
666 | 82% | 5 |
| Kent Mesplay | 151 | 18% | 1 |
| Write-in/Blank | 18 | 2% | - |
| Total | 817 | 100.00% | 6 |
Polling
The first poll conducted in March 2016 showed a tie between Clinton and Trump. From March 2016 to October, the polling in this normally Republican state was quite close, with neither candidate seriously leading. In late October, Trump gained momentum and won every pre-election poll in the weeks leading up to the election. The final poll showed Trump leading Clinton 46% to 41% and the average of the final 3 polls showed Trump leading 47% to 43%, which was accurate compared to the results. [10]
General election
Predictions
The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Arizona as of Election Day.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Times[11] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[12] | Tilt R | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| CNN[14] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| NBC[15] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[16] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[17] | Lean R | November 7, 2016 |
| ABC[18] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Statewide results
| 2016 United States presidential election in Arizona[19] | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Popular vote | Electoral vote | Swing | ||||
| Count | % | Count | % | ||||||
| Republican | Donald Trump of New York | Mike Pence of Indiana | 1,252,401 | 48.08% | 11 | 100.00% |  5.40%
| ||
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton of New York | Tim Kaine of Virginia | 1,161,167 | 44.58% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.13%
| ||
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson of New Mexico | Bill Weld of Massachusetts | 106,327 | 4.08% | 0 | 0.00% | 2.69%
| ||
| Green | Jill Stein of Massachusetts | Ajamu Baraka of Illinois | 34,345 | 1.32% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.98%
| ||
| Write-in | Various of Various | Various of Various | 31,662 | 1.22% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.90%
| ||
| Independent | Evan McMullin (write-in) of Utah | Nathan Johnson of California | 17,449 | 0.67% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.67%
| ||
| Constitution | Darrell Castle (write-in) of Tennessee | Scott Bradley of Utah | 1,058 | 0.04% | 0 | 0.00% | 0.03%
| ||
| Independent | Tom Hoefling (write-in) of Iowa | Steve Schulin of South Carolina | 85 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% | 
| ||
| Independent | Mike Smith (write-in) of Tennessee | Daniel L. White of | 62 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| ||
| Independent | Laurence Kotlikoff (write-in) of Massachusetts | Edward E. Leamer of California | 52 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| ||
| Reform | Rocky De La Fuente (write-in) of California | Michael Steinberg of Florida | 29 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| ||
| Independent | Joseph Allen Maldonado (write-in) of Oklahoma | Douglas Terranova of | 20 | 0.00% | 0 | 0.00% |
| ||
| Total | 2,604,657 | 100.00% | 11 | 100.00% | |||||
Results by county
| County | Trump# | Trump% | Clinton# | Clinton% | Others# | Others% | Total Votes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apache | 8,240 | 30.50% | 17,083 | 63.24% | 1,783 | 6.58% | 27,106 |
| Cochise | 28,092 | 57.41% | 17,450 | 35.66% | 3,833 | 7.76% | 49,375 |
| Coconino | 21,108 | 36.45% | 32,404 | 56.44% | 4,919 | 8.42% | 58,431 |
| Gila | 14,182 | 63.88% | 7,003 | 31.55% | 1,123 | 5.03% | 22,308 |
| Graham | 8,025 | 67.22% | 3,301 | 27.65% | 806 | 6.64% | 12,132 |
| Greenlee | 1,892 | 58.34% | 1,092 | 33.67% | 286 | 8.75% | 3,270 |
| La Paz | 4,003 | 68.29% | 1,575 | 26.87% | 296 | 5.04% | 5,874 |
| Maricopa | 747,361 | 46.45% | 702,907 | 43.69% | 158,607 | 9.86% | 1,608,875 |
| Mohave | 58,282 | 73.67% | 17,455 | 22.06% | 3,607 | 4.55% | 79,344 |
| Navajo | 20,577 | 52.56% | 16,459 | 42.04% | 2,609 | 6.58% | 39,645 |
| Pima | 167,428 | 40.45% | 224,661 | 54.28% | 24,297 | 5.84% | 416,386 |
| Pinal | 72,819 | 57.25% | 47,892 | 37.65% | 7,524 | 5.87% | 128,235 |
| Santa Cruz | 3,897 | 24.45% | 11,690 | 71.58% | 700 | 4.30% | 16,287 |
| Yavapai | 71,330 | 63.40% | 35,590 | 31.63% | 6,224 | 5.50% | 113,144 |
| Yuma | 25,165 | 48.12% | 24,605 | 47.05% | 2,641 | 5.04% | 52,411 |
By congressional district
Trump won 5 of 9 congressional districts, including one represented by a Democrat. Clinton also carried a district represented by a Republican.[20]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 48% | 47% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
| Tom O'Halleran | |||
| 2nd | 44% | 49% | Martha McSally |
| 3rd | 32% | 62% | Raúl Grijalva |
| 4th | 66% | 27% | Paul Gosar |
| 5th | 56% | 36% | Matt Salmon |
| Andy Biggs | |||
| 6th | 52% | 42% | David Schweikert |
| 7th | 22% | 71% | Ruben Gallego |
| 8th | 57% | 36% | Trent Franks |
| 9th | 38% | 54% | Kyrsten Sinema |
Turnout
Voter Turnout was 74.17% with 2,661,497 ballots cast out of 3,588,466 voters.[21]
Analysis
Donald Trump won Arizona with a margin of 3.5%, a reduced margin from Mitt Romney's 9.03% margin in 2012.[22] Arizona was among the eleven states in which Hillary Clinton outperformed Barack Obama's margin in 2012,[23] primarily due to an increase in Hispanic voter turnout in southern Arizona, including heavily populated Maricopa County. Maricopa County in particular went from a 10.69% margin of victory for Romney in 2012 to a 2.84% margin of victory for Trump—one of only three times that a Democrat has come closer to carrying the county since 1964. Indeed, the only closer margin since that time came in 1996, when Bill Clinton lost it by 2.2%.
Clinton also came close to winning Yuma County, and would have been the first Democrat to do so since the county was separated from La Paz County in the 1980s. Other rural counties that had been won by Bill Clinton in the 1990s continued to trend in a Republican direction.
In terms of percentage of the vote, Trump's strongest support was in the northwest of the state whereas Clinton did best in the southern-central region.
Electors
Arizona had 11 electors in 2016. All of them voted for Donald Trump for president and Mike Pence for vice president.
The electors were
- Bruce Ash
- Walter Begay
- Sharon Giese
- Robert Graham
- Alberto Gutier
- Jerry Hayden
- Carole Joyce
- Jane Pierpoint Lynch
- J. Foster Morgan
- James O'Connor
- Edward Robson
See also
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Green Party presidential primaries
- 2016 Republican Party presidential debates and forums
- 2016 Republican Party presidential primaries
References
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Archived from the original on November 23, 2020. Retrieved November 23, 2020.
{{cite web}}:|archive-date=/|archive-url=timestamp mismatch; January 9, 2019 suggested (help) - ^ Hobbs, Katie. "Arizona Secretary of State 2012 Election Information". Arizona Secretary of State. Retrieved November 6, 2020.
- ^ "Democratic Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016". azsos.gov. Secretary of State of Arizona. Archived from the original on September 9, 2016. Retrieved September 15, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Democratic Delegation 2016". www.thegreenpapers.com.
- ^ "2016 Arizona District-Level Delegate Math" (PDF). Arizona Democratic Party. April 5, 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on April 18, 2016. Retrieved April 8, 2016.
- ^ "Republican Party Candidates - Presidential Preference Election 2016 | Arizona Secretary of State". Azsos.gov. March 7, 2015. Archived from the original on December 3, 2016. Retrieved December 1, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary Results". Ballot Access News. March 23, 2016. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ "Two Candidates Qualify for Arizona Green Party Presidential Primary; Six Qualify for Democratic Primary". Ballot Access News. December 14, 2015. Retrieved February 20, 2016.
- ^ "Unofficial 2016 Presidential Preference Election Results". azsos.gov. Retrieved March 23, 2016.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Arizona: Trump vs. Clinton". www.realclearpolitics.com.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Presidential General Election Results - Arizona".
- ^ "Introducing the 2017 Cook Political Report Partisan Voter Index". The Cook Political Report.
- ^ "Arizona Secretary of State Election Night Reporting". Results.arizona.vote. Retrieved November 20, 2016.
- ^ "Arizona Election Results 2016". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
- ^ "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections - County Data".
