2016 United States Senate election in Washington
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   Murray: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Vance: 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 50% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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| Elections in Washington |
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The 2016 United States Senate election in Washington was held November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Washington. Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray ran for re-election to a fifth term,[1] and won by a significant margin, winning 59% of the vote, to Republican Chris Vance's 41%.
The election took place concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Under Washington's nonpartisan blanket primary law, all candidates appear on the same ballot, regardless of party. In the August 2 primary, voters had the choice to vote for any candidate, regardless of their party affiliation. The top two finishers—regardless of party—advance to the general election in November, even if a candidate manages to receive a majority of the votes cast in the primary election. California is the only other state with this system, a so-called "top two primary" (Louisiana has a similar "jungle primary", but there is no general election if one candidate receives 50% plus one vote of all votes cast in the primary).
As of 2023, this is the last time a Democrat running statewide for federal office has won Grays Harbor and Mason Counties.
Primary election
Democratic Party
Declared
- Thor Amundson[2]
- Phil Cornell, retired communications technician[3]
- Patty Murray, incumbent U.S. Senator
- Mohammed Said[2]
Republican Party
Declared
- Eric John Makus[2]
- Uncle Mover[2]
- Scott Nazarino[2]
- Chris Vance, former state representative, former member of the King County Council, and former chair of the Washington State Republican Party[4]
Declined
- Bill Bryant, Seattle Port Commissioner (running for governor)[5][6]
- Andy Hill, state senator[5]
- Jaime Herrera Beutler, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[7]
- Steve Litzow, state senator (running for re-election)[5]
- Rob McKenna, former attorney general of Washington and nominee for governor in 2012[8]
- Cathy McMorris Rodgers, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[7]
- Dave Reichert, U.S. Representative (running for re-election)[5][9][10]
- Dino Rossi, former state senator, nominee for Governor of Washington in 2004 and 2008, and nominee for U.S. Senate in 2010[5]
Third party and independent candidates
Declared
- Pano Churchill (Lincoln Caucus)[2]
- Ted Cummings (Independent)[2]
- Zach Haller (Independent)[2]
- Chuck Jackson (Independent)[2]
- Donna Rae Lands (Conservative)[2]
- Mike Luke (Libertarian)[2]
- Jeremy Teuton (System Reboot)[2]
- Alex Tsimerman (StandUpAmerica)[2]
- Sam Wright (Human Rights)[2]
Results
Murray—30–40%
Murray—40–50%
Murray—50–60%
Murray—60–70%
Vance—30–40%
Vance—40–50%
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 745,421 | 53.82% | |
| Republican | Chris Vance | 381,004 | 27.51% | |
| Republican | Eric John Makus | 57,825 | 4.18% | |
| Democratic | Phil Cornell | 46,460 | 3.35% | |
| Republican | Scott Nazarino | 41,542 | 3.00% | |
| Libertarian | Mike Luke | 20,988 | 1.52% | |
| Democratic | Mohammad Said | 13,362 | 0.96% | |
| Independent | Donna Rae Lands | 11,472 | 0.83% | |
| Independent | Ted Cummings | 11,028 | 0.80% | |
| Independent | Sam Wright | 10,751 | 0.78% | |
| Republican | Uncle Mover | 8,569 | 0.62% | |
| Independent | Jeremy Teuton | 7,991 | 0.58% | |
| Democratic | Thor Amundson | 7,906 | 0.57% | |
| Independent | Chuck Jackson | 6,318 | 0.46% | |
| Independent | Pano Churchill | 5,150 | 0.37% | |
| Independent | Zach Haller | 5,092 | 0.37% | |
| Independent | Alex Tsimerman | 4,117 | 0.30% | |
| Total votes | 1,384,996 | 100.00% | ||
General election
Debates
| Dates | Location | Murray | Vance | Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 16, 2016 | Seattle, Washington | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
| October 23, 2016 | Redmond, Washington | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[12] | Safe D | November 2, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[13] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[14] | Safe D | November 3, 2016 |
| Daily Kos[15] | Safe D | November 8, 2016 |
| Real Clear Politics[16] | Safe D | November 7, 2016 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Chris Vance (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 1,451 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 37% | — | 4% |
| Insights West Archived November 8, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 4–6, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 53% | 37% | — | 11% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 1,292 | ± 4.6% | 59% | 37% | — | 4% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 944 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 36% | — | 3% |
| SurveyUSA | October 31–November 2, 2016 | 667 | ± 3.9% | 53% | 41% | — | 6% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 807 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 36% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 1, 2016 | 698 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 36% | — | 3% |
| SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 745 | ± 4.6% | 61% | 36% | — | 3% |
| Elway Poll | October 20–22, 2016 | 502 | ± 4.5% | 58% | 34% | — | 8% |
| KCTS 9/YouGov Archived October 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 6–13, 2016 | 750 | ± 4.4% | 55% | 39% | — | 16% |
| Strategies 360/KOMO News | September 29–October 3, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 57% | 36% | — | 6% |
| Emerson College | September 25–26, 2016 | 700 | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 3% | 8% |
| Insights West | September 12–14, 2016 | 505 | ± 4.4% | 46% | 25% | 2% | 27% |
| Elway Poll | August 9–13, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 52% | 34% | — | 14% |
| Elway Poll | April 14–17, 2016 | 503 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 32% | — | 18% |
| Elway Poll | October 13–15, 2015 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 23% | — | 33% |
Hypothetical polling
- with Rob McKenna
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Rob McKenna (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 46% | 41% | 12% |
- with Dave Reichert
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Dave Reichert (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
- with Jaime Herrera Beutler
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Jaime Herrera Beutler (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 47% | 37% | 17% |
- with Cathy McMorris Rodgers
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Patty Murray (D) |
Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling | May 14–17, 2015 | 879 | ± 3.3% | 48% | 35% | 17% |
Results
At 1,913,979 votes, Murray made history by receiving the most votes in a United States Senate election in Washington state.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Patty Murray (incumbent) | 1,913,979 | 58.83% | +6.75% | |
| Republican | Chris Vance | 1,329,338 | 40.86% | −6.51% | |
| Write-in | 10,071 | 0.31% | -0.24% | ||
| Total votes | 3,253,388 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
| Democratic hold | |||||
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic
- Island (largest city: Oak Harbor)
- Pierce (largest city: Tacoma)
- Skagit (largest city: Mount Vernon)
- Clallam (largest city: Port Angeles)
- Mason (largest city: Shelton)
- Clark (Largest city: Vancouver)
- Whitman (Largest city: Pullman)
By congressional district
Murray won 7 of 10 congressional districts, including one that elected a Republican.[18]
| District | Vance | Murray | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 43.75% | 56.25% | Suzan DelBene |
| 2nd | 38.69% | 61.31% | Rick Larsen |
| 3rd | 50.54% | 49.46% | Jaime Herrera Beutler |
| 4th | 55.87% | 44.13% | Dan Newhouse |
| 5th | 52.16% | 47.84% | Cathy McMorris Rodgers |
| 6th | 41.85% | 58.15% | Derek Kilmer |
| 7th | 17.38% | 82.62% | Jim McDermott |
| Pramila Jayapal | |||
| 8th | 48.33% | 51.67% | Dave Reichert |
| 9th | 27.92% | 72.08% | Adam Smith |
| 10th | 42.29% | 57.71% | Denny Heck |
See also
References
- ^ Brunner, Jim (February 9, 2014). "Patty Murray to seek fifth Senate term in 2016". The Seattle Times. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Camden, Jim (May 23, 2016). "Final list of candidates in the August primary". The Spokesman-Review. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
- ^ http://www.philcornell4ussenate.org Archived May 17, 2016, at the Wayback Machine Phil Cornell (D) for Senate
- ^ Pathé, Simone (September 8, 2015). "Former Washington GOP Chairman to Challenge Patty Murray". Roll Call. Archived from the original on October 26, 2015. Retrieved September 8, 2015.
- ^ a b c d e Pathe, Simone (May 8, 2015). "GOP Searches for Patty Murray Challenger". Roll Call. Archived from the original on May 9, 2015. Retrieved May 8, 2015.
- ^ Brunner, Jim (May 14, 2015). "Port Commissioner Bill Bryant announces run for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved May 14, 2015.
- ^ a b "Washington Voters Grow Further In Support of Gay Marriage, Marijuana, Background Checks" (PDF) (Press release). Public Policy Polling. May 20, 2015. Retrieved February 19, 2016.
- ^ Rosenthal, Brian (February 19, 2013). "Former AG McKenna joins law firm". Yakima Herald. Retrieved March 4, 2013.
- ^ Joseph, Cameron (August 9, 2013). "Rep. Reichert 'thinking about' run for Senate, governor in Washington". The Hill. Retrieved October 16, 2014.
- ^ Brunner, Jim (October 16, 2015). "Dave Reichert won't run against Jay Inslee for governor". The Seattle Times. Retrieved November 1, 2015.
- ^ "August 2, 2016 Primary Results - U.S. Senator". Washington Secretary of State. Archived from the original on August 22, 2016. Retrieved August 22, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Race Ratings for November 2, 2016". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved March 26, 2021.
- ^ "2016 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 19, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved November 3, 2016.
- ^ "Daily Kos Election 2016 forecast: The final version". Daily Kos. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate 2016". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 28, 2016.
- ^ "November 8, 2016 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved December 3, 2016.
- ^ Results (PDF). wei.sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on June 30, 2018.
External links
- Official campaign websites (Archived)