Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

Add links
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by InternetArchiveBot (talk | contribs) at 20:31, 25 April 2020 (Rescuing 4 sources and tagging 0 as dead.) #IABot (v2.0). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.

The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.[1]

Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

Summary of poll results given below from the election result 20 September 2014. For simplicity, only political parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election are shown. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.
Summary poll results for political parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election. Lines give the mean estimated by a LOESS smoother (smoothing set to span = 0.35), with shaded grey areas showing the corresponding 95% confidence interval for the estimate. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT United
Future 		Con Mana TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party of New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result[2] 20 Sep 2014 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 0.22 3.97 1.42[nb 2] —
Roy Morgan Research[3] 29 Sep – 12 Oct 2014 43.5 22.5 17.5 7 2 0.5 0.5 5 1 —
Roy Morgan Research[4] 27 Oct – 9 Nov 2014 49.5 24 14.5 6.5 1 0.5 0 2 0.5 —
Roy Morgan Research[5] 24 Nov – 7 Dec 2014 46 27 12 7 2 1.5 0 2.5 1 —
Herald-DigiPoll[6] 8–21 Dec 2014 50.4 28.9 9.5 5.6 1.5 0.4 0 2.9 0.2 —
Roy Morgan Research[7] 5–18 Jan 2015 52 26 11 6 1.5 1 0 2 0 —
3 News Reid Research[8] 20–28 Jan 2015 49.8 29.1 9.3 6.9 1.3 0.4 0 2.7 0.6 —
Roy Morgan Research[9] 2–15 Feb 2015 49 30 12 6 1 0 0 1.5 0 —
One News Colmar Brunton[10] 14–18 Feb 2015 49 31 10 6 1.5 0.3 0 1.4 0.4 —
Roy Morgan Research[11] 2–15 Mar 2015 46.5 31 11 6 2 1 – 1.5 – —
28 Mar 2015 – The Northland by-election is won by New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.
One News Colmar Brunton[12] 11–15 Apr 2015 49 31 9 7 0.8 0.5 – 1.5 1.1 —
Roy Morgan Research[13] 6–19 Apr 2015 45.5 27.5 13.5 8 1.5 1 – 1 – —
Herald-DigiPoll[14] 17–26 Apr 2015 51 28.7 10.8 6.1 0.8 0.8 – 1.1 – —
Roy Morgan Research[15] 4–17 May 2015 54 25.5 10.5 6 1 1 0 1 – —
21 May 2015 – The 2015 Budget is delivered.
One News Colmar Brunton[16] 23–27 May 2015 48 31 10 7 1.4 0.1 – 2.3 – —
3 News Reid Research[17][18] 21–27 May 2015 46.4 30.4 11.1 8.1 1.1 0.5 – 1.9 0.1 —
30 May 2015 – James Shaw replaces Russel Norman as the Green Party co-leader.[19]
Roy Morgan Research[20] 8–21 Jun 2015 49.5 26 13 6.5 1 1 – 1 – —
22–27 Jun 2015 – The Conservative Party disintegrates as leader Colin Craig and all board members resign. Acting leadership of the party is left unclear.[21]
Roy Morgan Research[22] 29 Jun – 12 Jul 2015 43 32 13 7 1.5 0.5 – 1.5 – —
One News Colmar Brunton[23] 11–15 Jul 2015 47 32 13 7 0.4 0.4 – – 0.5 —
3 News Reid Research[24][18] 15–22 Jul 2015 47 31.1 11.4 8.4 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.7 0.2 —
Roy Morgan Research[25] 3–16 Aug 2015 50.5 27 11 8 1.5 0.5 – – 0.5 —
Herald-DigiPoll[26] 14–24 Aug 2015 50.8 31 9.2 6.9 1 0.2 – 0.6 0.2 —
One News Colmar Brunton[27] 29 Aug – 2 Sep 2015 47 32 12 7 1.2 0.1 – 0.1 0.2 —
Roy Morgan Research[28] 31 Aug – 13 Sep 2015 44.5 31 15 5.5 1.5 0.5 0.5 1 0.5 —
3 News Reid Research[29] 8–16 Sep 2015 47.3 33 10 7.9 0.5 0.6 – 0.5 – —
Roy Morgan Research[30] 31 Sep – 11 Oct 2015 50 29 11.5 6.5 0.5 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 —
One News Colmar Brunton[31] 10–14 Oct 2015 47 31 12 9 0.8 0.2 – 0.4 – —
Roy Morgan Research[32] 26 Oct – 8 Nov 2015 49 29.5 12 6 2 0.5 – 0.5 0.5 —
3 News Reid Research[33][18] 9–17 Nov 2015 46.7 32.3 10.2 7.5 1.3 0.8 – 0.7 0.2 —
Roy Morgan Research[34] 23 Nov – 6 Dec 2015 49 28.5 13 6 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 – —
Herald-DigiPoll[35] 4–14 Dec 2015 51.3 31.1 8.2 5.7 2.1 0.8 0.3 – – —
Roy Morgan Research[36] 4–17 Jan 2016 47 27.5 14 6.5 3 0.5 – 1 – —
4 Feb 2016 – The Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement is signed by the New Zealand government and 12 other partner countries.
Roy Morgan Research[37] 1–14 Feb 2016 48 27 14.5 6 1 0.5 – 1 0.5 —
One News Colmar Brunton[38] 13–17 Feb 2016 47 32 8 10 1.1 0.3 – 0.6 0.3 —
Roy Morgan Research[39] 29 Feb – 13 Mar 2016 46 28 14 9 1 1 – 0.5 0.5 —
One News Colmar Brunton[40] 2–6 Apr 2016 50 28 10 9 1.1 0.7 – 0.3 – —
Roy Morgan Research[41] 4–17 Apr 2016 42.5 26 14.5 12.5 1.5 1.5 – 1 – —
Roy Morgan Research[42] 2–15 May 2016 45.5 29.5 12 9.5 1 1 0 0.5 – —
Newshub Reid Research[43][18] 12–22 May 2016 47 31.3 11.1 7.8 1 0.4 – 0.6 0.1 —
26 May 2016 – The 2016 Budget is delivered.
31 May 2016 – The Labour and Green parties undertake a memorandum of understanding.[44]
One News Colmar Brunton[45] 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 48 29 12 9 0.7 0.3 – 0.7 0.1 —
Roy Morgan Research[46] 12 Jun 2016 43.5 28 14.5 9 2 0.5 – 1 1 —
Roy Morgan Research[47] 17 Jul 2016 53 25.5 11.5 7 0.5 1 – 0.5 0.5 —
Newshub Reid Research[48][18] 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 45.1 32.7 11.5 8.1 1.3 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.4 —
Roy Morgan Research[49] 8–21 Aug 2016 46 25.5 14.5 9.5 1.5 1 – 1 0.5 —
One News Colmar Brunton[50] 3–7 Sep 2016 48 26 13 11 2 – – 0.3 – —
Roy Morgan Research[51] 5–18 Sep 2016 41.5 33.5 12 8.5 2 1 – 0.5 – —
Roy Morgan Research[52] 10–23 Oct 2016 48 26.5 11.5 10 1.5 0.5 – – – —
14 Nov 2016 – A 7.8 magnitude earthquake hits the coastal town of Kaikoura.
Nov 2016 – The Opportunities Party is inaugurated by Gareth Morgan.
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 12–23 Nov 2016 50 28 11 10 1 – – 0.2 – –
Roy Morgan Research[54] 24 Oct – 20 Nov 2016 49.5 23.0 14.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
3 Dec 2016 – Labour's Michael Wood wins the Mount Roskill by-election.
5 Dec 2016 – John Key announces that he will resign as Prime Minister of New Zealand, effective 12 December.
Roy Morgan Research[55] 28 Nov – 11 Dec 2016 45.0 28.5 14.5 7.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party, Paula Bennett becomes both Deputy Prime Minister and Deputy Leader.
Roy Morgan Research[56] 3–16 Jan 2017 46.0 27.0 12.5 9.0 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.0 –
1 Feb 2017 – Prime Minister Bill English announces that the election will take place on 23 September 2017.
Roy Morgan Research[57] 30 Jan – 12 Feb 2017 48.0 26.0 13.0 8.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
One News Colmar Brunton[58] 11–15 Feb 2017 46 30 11 11 0.7 0.8 0.3[59] 0.2 0.8 0.0[59]
25 Feb 2017 – Labour's Jacinda Ardern wins the Mount Albert by-election.
1 Mar 2017 – Annette King steps down as Labour Party Deputy Leader and announces her retirement from Parliament, effective September. Mount Albert MP Jacinda Ardern is nominated as her successor and is confirmed six days later with the unanimous support of Labour's caucus.
6 Mar 2017 – The Opportunities Party is registered by the Electoral Commission.[60]
Roy Morgan Research[61] 27 Feb – 12 Mar 2017 43.5 29.5 14.5 7.5 2.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 –
Newshub Reid Research[62][63] 10–19 Mar 2017 47.1 30.8 11.2 7.6 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.8
One News Colmar Brunton[64][65] 18–22 Mar 2017 46 30 11 8 4 0.4 – 0.3 0.2 0.4
Roy Morgan Research[66] 3–16 Apr 2017 43.0 29.5 13.0 10.5 1.0 1.5 0.0 0.5 0.0 –
Roy Morgan Research[67] 1–14 May 2017 43.0 28.5 14.0 10.0 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
25 May 2017 – The 2017 budget is delivered.
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68] 19–24 May 2017 43.75 23.75 16.25 10.00 1.25 1.25 0.00 1.25 – 2.50
One News Colmar Brunton[69][70] 21–31 May 2017 49 30 9 9 0.6 0.5 – 0.1 – 1.4
Roy Morgan Research[71] 29 May – 11 Jun 2017 46.5 25.5 14.0 9.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 –
Newshub Reid Research[72][63] 12 Jun 2017 47.4 26.4 12.5 9.4 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.8 0.3 0.8
21 Jun 2017 – National MP Todd Barclay announces he will not seek re-election after it was revealed that he secretly recorded a staff member's conversations without her consent.[73] Police re-open their investigation five days later, after Bill English stated that Barclay had admitted to him that he made the recording.[74]
One News Colmar Brunton[75] 1–5 Jul 2017 47 27 11 11 1.8 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.3 1.1
Roy Morgan Research[76] 26 Jun – 9 Jul 2017 43 30.5 13.5 8.0 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 –
16 Jul 2017 – Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to not disclosing to Work and Income New Zealand that she was accepting rent from flatmates while on the Domestic Purposes Benefit in the early 1990s.[77]
One News Colmar Brunton[78][79] 22–27 Jul 2017 47 24 15 11 0.6 0.3 0.1 – – 1.5
Newshub Reid Research[80] 20–28 Jul 2017 45.2 24.1 13 13 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2[81] 2
1 Aug 2017 – Labour Party leader Andrew Little resigns as Leader of the Labour Party following consecutive poll results that show Labour with low support. Jacinda Ardern is confirmed as Leader shortly after while Kelvin Davis assumes the role of Deputy Leader.
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[82] 1–2 Aug 2017 45.42 26.79 13.98 9.32 0.00 1.17 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.33
3 Aug 2017 – Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei admits to registering a false residential address to vote for a friend who was running in the Mount Albert electorate in 1993.[83] The controversy leads Green Party MPs David Clendon and Kennedy Graham to withdraw from the party list four days later.[84]
Newshub Reid Research[85] 2–8 Aug 2017 44.4 33.1 8.3 9.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 2
9 Aug 2017 – Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader and from the party list following her admission of benefit fraud.[86]
Roy Morgan Research[87] 31 Jul – 13 Aug 2017 42.5 32.5 9.0 11.5 1.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0
One News Colmar Brunton[88][89] 12–16 Aug 2017 44 37 4.3 10 1.7 0.4 0.0 – – 2.1
21 Aug 2017 – United Future leader and Minister of Internal Affairs Peter Dunne announces his retirement from politics.[90] Damian Light (candidate for Botany) is appointed leader 2 days later.[91]
27 Aug 2017 – Controversy arises after a leak reveals that NZ First leader Winston Peters was overpaid in his superannuation payments for years.[92][93]
Newshub Reid Research[94][81] 22–30 Aug 2017 43.3 39.4 6.1 6.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.9
One News Colmar Brunton[95][96] 26–30 Aug 2017 41 43 5 8 0.5 0.3 – – – 0.9
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97] 1–5 Sep 2017 38.9 41.1 6.7 8.9 1.1 1.1 – – – 2.2
One News Colmar Brunton[98][99] 2–6 Sep 2017 39 43 5 9 2.0 0.1 – – – 1.9
Newsroom-SSI[100] 4–6 Sep 2017 30 45 6 11 2 1 – – – 2
Roy Morgan Research[101] 28 Aug – 10 Sep 2017 40 39.5 9 6 2 0.5 0 0.5 – 2
Newshub Reid Research[102][81] 6–11 Sep 2017 47.3 37.8 4.9 6.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.6
11 Sep 2017 – Advance voting for the election begins. The Electoral Commission predicts up to 50% of voters will cast their vote before election day (up from 30% in 2014).[103]
One News Colmar Brunton[104][105] 9–13 Sep 2017 40 44 7 6 0.9 0.6 – – – 1.6
Newshub Reid Research[106][18] 13–20 Sep 2017 45.8 37.3 7.1 7.1 0.4 0.6 – 0.6[107] 0.1 0.9
One News Colmar Brunton[108][109] 15–19 Sep 2017 46 37 8 4.9 0.5 0.3 – – – 2.3
23 Sep 2017 – Election Day:
2017 election result[110] 23 Sep 2017 44.4 36.9 6.3 7.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.4
Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT United
Future 		Con Mana TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party of New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color;"|

UMR and Curia polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

Poll Date[nb 1] National Labour Green NZ First Māori ACT Con Mana TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Conservative Party of New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result[2] 20 Sep 2014 47.04 25.13 10.70 8.66 1.32 0.69 3.97 1.40[nb 2] —
UMR Research[111] Oct 2014 50 24 13 7.8 1.5 0.6 3.0 0.8 —
UMR Research[111] Nov 2014 47 25 13 7.6 2.7 0.4 3.0 0.8 —
UMR Research[111] Dec 2014 45 30 14 6.1 0.6 0.2 3.3 0.5 —
UMR Research[112] Jan 2015 48 31 12 5.8 1.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 —
UMR Research[112] Feb 2015 46 32 12 5.0 1.5 0.7 2.7 0.3 —
UMR Research[112] Mar 2015 46 31 11 6.9 1.6 0.4 3.1 0.4 —
UMR Research[112] Apr 2015 43 32 13 7.6 1.8 1.1 1.2 0.3 —
UMR Research[112] May 2015 46 31 10 6.8 1.3 1.1 3.0 0.4 —
UMR Research[112] Jun 2015 45 32 13 7.5 1.2 0.5 0.9 0.2 —
UMR Research[112] Jul 2015 41 35 14 6.7 1.2 0.3 3.0 0.5 —
UMR Research[112] Aug 2015 42 31 14 8.5 1.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 —
UMR Research[112] Sep 2015 45 31 13 8.7 0.1 0.8 1.0 0.4 —
UMR Research[112] Oct 2015 48 31 10 7.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.2 —
UMR Research[112] Nov 2015 44 31 13 8.0 1.5 0.5 1.2 0.1 —
UMR Research[112] Dec 2015 45 35 10 8.3 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.2 —
UMR Research[113] 31 Aug – 5 Sept 2016 40 31 14 11 – – – – —
UMR Research[114] Late Jan 2017 46 30 11 9 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Early Feb 2017 44 30 12 11 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Late Feb 2017 48 28 12 8 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Early Mar 2017 42 30 14 10 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Late Mar 2017 44 30 12 10 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Early Apr 2017 43 28 13 12 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Late Apr 2017 43 28 12 12 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Early May 2017 42 34 13 9 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Late May 2017 44 30 13 9 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Early Jun 2017 42 32 13 9 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] Late Jun 2017 43 29 12 11 – – – – –
UMR Research[114] 5–10 Jul 2017 42 26 13 14 – – – – –
UMR Research[115][116] Late Jul 2017 42 23 15 16 – – – – –
UMR Research[117][118] 1–8 Aug 2017 43 36 8 8 – – – – 3
UMR Research[119][120] 11–16 Aug 2017 40 37 8 9 – – – – 3.5
Curia[121] 20 Sep 2017 43 39 6 6 – – – – –

Preferred Prime Minister

Graphical summary

Summary of Preferred Prime Minister Polls from 2015 to September 2017. Lines show the mean, as estimated by a Loess smoother. Figures to the right show the estimate from the smoothing line at the date of the most recent poll, with 95% confidence interval.

Individual polls

Poll Date[nb 1] Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Movement/meta/color; width:60px;| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future/meta/color; width:60px;| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
Herald-DigiPoll[6] 8–21 Dec 2014 – 1.7 – – – – – – 13.6 65
3 News-Reid Research[8][122] 20–28 Jan 2015 0.3 – 7.6 – – – – – 9.8 44.0
One News-Colmar Brunton[10] 14–18 Feb 2015 0.6 0.7 7.0 – 0.4 – – 1.1 12.0 41.0
Herald-DigiPoll[14] 17–26 Apr 2015 – – 12 – – – – – 13.9 64.6
3 News Reid Research[17][122] 21–27 May 2015 0.6 – 11.2 – – – – – 11.6 39.4
3 News Reid Research[24][122] 15–22 Jul 2015 0.2 – 11.3 0.2 – – – – 10.2 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[26] 14–24 Aug 2015 – 3.9 11.6 0.6 – – – 0.9 13.3 63.7
3 News Reid Research[29][122] 8–16 Sep 2015 0.3 3.5 8.6 0.2 – – 0.1 – 10.8 39.5
3 News Reid Research[33][122] 9–17 Nov 2015 0.7 4.2 9.3 – – – 0.1 – 10.4 38.3
Herald-DigiPoll[35] 4–14 Dec 2015 – 2.8 7.9 – – – – – 16.2 65.2
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 2–6 Apr 2016 0.9 2 10 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research[43][18][81] 12–22 May 2016 0.2 2.6 12.1 0.5 – – – – 8.9 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 0.4 1 12 0.4 – – – – 7 39
Newshub Reid Research[48][18][81] 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 0.3 2.9 10.9 0.9 – 0.3 – 1 10.5 36.7
One News Colmar Brunton[53] 3–7 Sep 2016 – 1 11 0.1 – – – – 10 38
One News Colmar Brunton[53][123] 12–23 Nov 2016 – 1 8 0.3 – 0.1 0.3 1 8 36
12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[58][123] 11–15 Feb 2017 31 4 8 0.3 – 0.1 – 2 7 2
Newshub Reid Research[62][81] 10–19 Mar 2017 25 10.5 8.9 – – 0.1 – 1 8.3 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[65][123] 18–22 Mar 2017 26 9 9 0.5 0.3 – 0.2 0.4 7 2
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[68] 19–24 May 2017 39 16 9 2 – 2 – 3 13 –
One News Colmar Brunton[69][123] 21–31 May 2017 29 6 7 0.4 – 0.2 0.1 0.7 8 2
Newshub Reid Research[72][81][122] 2–12 Jun 2017 26.2 6.6 9.7 0.7 0.3 0.5 0.3 1.4 7 5.9
One News Colmar Brunton[75][123] 1–5 Jul 2017 26 6 11 0.5 0.5 0.7 – 0.2 5 1
One News Colmar Brunton[78][123] 22–27 Jul 2017 28 6 10 0.2 – 0.3 0.2 1 6 1
Newshub Reid Research[80][81] 20–28 Jul 2017 25.8 8.7 11.9 0.7 0.2 0.8 0.4 1.6 7.1 6
1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party.
Newshub Reid Research[85][81] 2–8 Aug 2017 27.7 26.3 10 0.2 0.5 0.6 – 0.8 0.9 4.9
9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party.
One News Colmar Brunton[88][124] 12–16 Aug 2017 30 30 7 0.3 0.4 0.7 – – – 0.5
21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light.[125][90]
Newshub Reid Research[94][81] 22–30 Aug 2017 30.1 29.9 6.9 0.5 0.1 0.6 0 0.8 0.3 4.6
One News Colmar Brunton[95][96] 26–30 Aug 2017 33 34 4 0.4 – 0.4 – 0.8 – –
Listener: Bauer Media Insights[97] 1–5 Sep 2017 36 46 6 1 – 1 – – – –
One News Colmar Brunton[98][99] 2–6 Sep 2017 31 35 5 1 0.1 0.5 – – 0.1 0.7
Newsroom: SSI[100] 4–6 Sep 2017 31 45 11 – – – – – – –
Newshub Reid Research[126][81] 6–11 Sep 2017 33.1 31.7 6.9 0.6 0.3 0.8 0.2 0.8 0.1 4.1
One News Colmar Brunton[104][105] 9–13 Sep 2017 32 34 5 0.3 – 0.3 – 0.2 – 0.6
Newshub Reid Research[106][122] 13–20 Sep 2017 34.7 29.6 7.1 0.6 – 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.4 3.6
One News Colmar Brunton[108][109] 15–19 Sep 2017 37 31 6 0.3 0.3 0.2 – 0.1 – 0.7
Poll Date[nb 1] Bill English Jacinda Ardern Winston Peters James Shaw Hone Harawira Gareth Morgan Peter Dunne Metiria Turei Andrew Little John Key
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Movement/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color;"|

Electorate polling

Ōhāriu

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:United Future/meta/color|United Future style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.23 23.42 15.01 4.76 —* 0.73 0.57 0.67
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127] 5 – 9 Aug 2017 46 35 12 4 1.8 0.5 0.4 0.3

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Greg O'Connor

style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:United Future/meta/color|United Future

Peter Dunne

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National

Brett Hudson

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Tane Woodley

style="width:100px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP

Jessica Hammond Doube

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT

Andie Moore

style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Ginny Andersen

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT

Sean Fitzpatrick

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:United Future New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 — 36.23 16.34 7.38 —* — 34.34 0.55
14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne.[128]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[127] 5 – 9 August 2017 48 34 14 — 2 1 — —
21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics.[90]
23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate[129] and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate.[130]

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Waiariki

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.37 21.79 12.54 5.00 7.98
Community Engagement Ltd[131] 19 – 22 July 2017 19.4 18.9 25.7 13.4 12.1
Maori TV-Reid Research[132] July – 3 September 2017 49.6 26.5 10.2 5.6 4.8

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Te Ururoa Flavell

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Tamati Coffey

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Rawhiri Waititi

style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color|Mana

Annette Sykes

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.42 — 26.06 24.48
26 Aug 2016 – Rawhiri Waititi cuts allegiances with Labour after being inspired by the Māori King to encourage Mana and Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together.[133]

07 Oct 2016 – Tamati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote.[134]

20 Feb 2017 – Mana begin a memorandum of understanding with the Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour.[135]

Community Engagement Ltd[131] 19 – 22 July 2017 31.6 30.1 — —
Maori TV-Reid Research[132] July – 3 September 2017 60.1 39.9 — —

The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color|Mana style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 41.22 14.05 12.98 7.93 11.17 10.22[nb 2] N/A*
Māori TV, Reid Research Poll[136] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 46.5 17.5 13.8 9.5 9.0 1.8 1.5

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Whangarei

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 50.08 17.80 13.36 9.77 0.53 0.55 N/A*
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138] 19 – 22 Aug 2017 41 37 16 3.6 1.3 1.0 0.4

* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National

Shane Reti

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First

Shane Jones

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Tony Savage

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Ash Holwell

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Democratic Party for Social Credit/meta/color |DFSC

Chris Leitch

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT

Robin Grieve

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Kelly Ellis

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First

Pita Paraone

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Paul Doherty

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Democratic Party for Social Credit/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 55.07 N/A N/A N/A 2.68 0.78 19.01 8.06 8.66
30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975).[137]
Q+A Colmar Brunton[138] 19 – 22 Aug 2017 42 24 22 10 1.7 0.1 N/A N/A N/A

Ikaroa-Rāwhiti

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Movement/meta/color|Mana style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Movement/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 47.38 12.19 — 5.37 11.25 10.28 0.11 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 50.4 21.1 1.3 5.9 12 7.5 0.3 1.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Meka Whaitiri

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Marama Fox

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Elizabeth Kerekere

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 55 39 6

Te Tai Hauāuru

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Movement/meta/color|Mana style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Movement/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 42.23 17.64 7.11 11.93 11.79 6.82 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 41.8 24 11.2 9.1 11 1.3 1.3

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Adrian Rurawhe

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Howie Tamati

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Jack McDonald

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 39 52 9.1

Te Tai Tonga

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color|ACT style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color|TOP
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:ACT New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:The Opportunities Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 36.7 14.92 11.19 16.41 12.82 0.17 —
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 47.6 14.1 11.7 9.3 14.4 0.3 2.4

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Rino Tirikatene

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Mei Reedy-Taare

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Metiria Turei

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
Māori TV Reid Research[139] 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 57.1 22.1 20.7

Hauraki-Waikato

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 46.50 13.37 11.97
Māori TV-Reid Research[140] 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 52.6 15.1 14.5

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Nanaia Mahuta

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Rahui Papa

style="width:75px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color|Mana

Susan Cullen

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party (New Zealand)/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 59.54 21.96 15.22
Māori TV-Reid Research[140] 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 78 22 —

Tāmaki Makaurau

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 40.45 13.98 12.72 11.69 7.55
Māori TV-Reid Research[141] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 47.0 12.6 14.5 11.3 12.6

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Peeni Henare

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Shane Taurima

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Marama Davidson

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori

Rangi McLean

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 37.48 — 15.60 30.21
Māori TV-Reid Research[141] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 46.0 32.6 21.4 —

Te Tai Tokerau

Party vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand First/meta/color|NZ First style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Māori Party/meta/color|Māori style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color|National style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Mana Party/meta/color|Mana
class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand First/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Māori Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand National Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 38.8 8.1 9.1 8.7 10.2 16.3
Māori TV-Reid Research[142] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 49.7 14.7 9.7 10.3 7.9 6.1

Candidate vote

Poll Date [nb 1] style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color|Labour

Kelvin Davis

style="width:75px;" bgcolor=Template:Mana Party/meta/color|Mana

Hone Harawira

style="width:70px;" r bgcolor=Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color|Green

Godfrey Rudoplh

class="unsortable" style="background:Template:New Zealand Labour Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Mana Party/meta/color; width:60px;"| class="unsortable" style="background:Template:Green Party of Aotearoa New Zealand/meta/color; width:60px;"|
2014 election result 20 September 2014 43.90 40.53 —
Māori TV-Reid Research[142] 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 67.4 30.3 2.3

Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.

Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy.[143] Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.

When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.

Party Newshub[144]
13–20 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		1 News[145]
15–19 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		Roy Morgan[146]
28 Aug–10 Sep 2017 poll [final] 		Radio NZ[147]
as of 21 Sep 2017 [final] 		NZ Herald[148]
as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] 		Stuff[149]
as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] 		Official result
National 56 58 50 55 56 (±2) 54 56
Labour 45 46 49 46 47 (±3) 46 46
NZ First 9 6 7 8 9 (±2) 7 9
Green 9 9 11 9 7 (±2) 10 8
ACT 1 1* 1 1 1 1 1
Māori Party 2** 1 2 1 1 1 0
Seats in Parliament 122 121 120 120 120[nb 3] 120[nb 4] 120
Overall result (majority) National−NZ First (65) National−NZ First (64) Labour−Green−Māori (62) National–NZ First (63) National–NZ First (65) National–NZ First (61) National–NZ First (65)
Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green−NZ First (61) Labour−Green−NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (62) Labour−Green–NZ First (63) Labour−Green–NZ First (63)
* indicates an overhang seat
  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
  2. ^ a b c For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
  3. ^ The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
  4. ^ Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.

New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.[150][151]

See also

Notes

References

  1. ^ Wong, Simon (1 February 2017). "Prime Minister sets 2017 election date". Newshub. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
  2. ^ a b "Official Count Results – Overall Status". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 10 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014.
  3. ^ "National fail to get post-election bounce but leaderless Labour Party crash to lowest ever support". Roy Morgan Research. 16 October 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014.
  4. ^ "National enjoy delayed honeymoon with big lead over leaderless Labour before new leader is selected next week". Roy Morgan Research. 14 November 2014. Retrieved 29 November 2014.
  5. ^ "National lead is down after Andrew Little claims the Labour Leadership with a landslide of Union support over Cabinet's preferred option Grant Robertson". Roy Morgan Research. 12 December 2014. Retrieved 26 December 2014.
  6. ^ a b Young, Audrey (26 December 2014). "National, Labour both on the rise". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 2 February 2015.
  7. ^ "National surges in 2015 – Biggest lead since September 2014 NZ Election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 January 2015. Retrieved 23 January 2015.
  8. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (1 February 2015). "Little rivals Clark in favourable poll results". 3 News. Retrieved 1 February 2015.
  9. ^ "National support slips but Labour still well behind as New Zealand co-host the 2015 Cricket World Cup". Roy Morgan Research. 20 February 2015. Retrieved 20 February 2015.
  10. ^ a b ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 14–18 February 2015 (PDF), Colmar Brunton, 22 February 2015, archived from the original (PDF) on 1 April 2016, retrieved 11 September 2017
  11. ^ "National support slips but would win a close election as New Zealand get set to host Cricket World Cup Quarter-Final". Roy Morgan Research. 20 March 2015. Retrieved 20 March 2015.
  12. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 19 April 2015. Retrieved 21 April 2015.
  13. ^ "National retains strong support despite NZ First victory at the Northland by-election". Roy Morgan Research. 23 April 2015. Retrieved 23 April 2015.
  14. ^ a b Young, Audrey (29 April 2014). "Ponytail-gate fails to shake Prime Minister's ratings". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 29 April 2015.
  15. ^ "Positive news in lead up to New Zealand Budget helps National Government support jump to 54% – highest since October 2011 Share". Roy Morgan Research. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 25 May 2015.
  16. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 31 May 2015. Retrieved 1 June 2015.
  17. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (2 June 2015). "John Key's popularity drops in latest poll". 3 News. Retrieved 2 June 2015.
  18. ^ a b c d e f g h "TV3 Poll Results". Reidresearch.co.nz. Retrieved 26 February 2017.
  19. ^ "James Shaw named Greens new co-leader". nzherald.co.nz. 30 May 2015. Retrieved 30 May 2015.
  20. ^ "National Government support down to 49.5% as New Zealand growth slows to 0.2% in March Quarter – slowest in two years". Roy Morgan Research. 24 June 2015. Retrieved 24 June 2015.
  21. ^ Davison, Isaac (22 June 2015). "Calls for Colin Craig's party membership to be cancelled". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 22 June 2015.
  22. ^ "Support for Labour/Greens coalition overtakes National for first time since New Zealand Election". Roy Morgan Research. 17 July 2015. Retrieved 17 July 2015.
  23. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll". Colmar Brunton. 19 July 2015. Retrieved 19 July 2015.
  24. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (26 July 2015). "Poll: 61pct want to ban foreign buyers". 3 News. Retrieved 26 July 2015.
  25. ^ "National support jumps ahead of a potential Labour/Greens alliance". Roy Morgan Research. 20 August 2015. Retrieved 20 August 2015.
  26. ^ a b Young, Audrey (26 August 2015). "Labour's support recovers to 30s". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 26 August 2015.
  27. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 6 September 2015. Retrieved 11 September 2015.
  28. ^ "Potential Labour/Greens alliance support jumps ahead of National as RBNZ cuts interest rates to boost flagging NZ economy". Roy Morgan Research. 13 September 2015. Retrieved 18 September 2015.
  29. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (26 July 2015). "Political poll: Support low for flag change". 3 News. Retrieved 21 September 2015.
  30. ^ "National support jumps in October with signing of Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) and leads potential Labour/Greens alliance". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 15 October 2015.
  31. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 18 October 2015. Retrieved 20 October 2015.
  32. ^ "NZ voting intention virtually unchanged in November before controversy this week after PM John Key accuses Opposition Leader Andrew Little of backing rapists". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 13 November 2015.
  33. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (22 November 2015). "National still ahead in polls despite 'rapist' remarks". 3 News. Retrieved 24 November 2015.
  34. ^ "National set for Merry Christmas as Key Government retains strong lead over Labour/Greens opposition". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 25 December 2015.
  35. ^ a b Young, Audrey (15 December 2015). "National steady at year-end". NZ Herald. Retrieved 16 December 2015.
  36. ^ "National lead down slightly over Labour/Greens opposition in New Year. TPP signing ceremony set for Auckland in two weeks a coup for PM John Key". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 January 2016.
  37. ^ "National builds winning lead over Labour/Greens opposition in New Zealand following TPP signing ceremony in Auckland early in February". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 February 2016.
  38. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 21 February 2016. Retrieved 23 February 2016.
  39. ^ "National lead cut to smallest since September as NZ First vote surges to 9% as Winston Peters takes strong stand on New Zealand Flag Referendum". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 18 March 2016.
  40. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 10 April 2016. Retrieved 10 April 2016.
  41. ^ "National vote lowest since 2014 Election as NZ First vote surges to 20 year high of 12.5%". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 26 April 2016.
  42. ^ "National and Labour vote up in May but NZ First still holds the balance of power position despite vote falling". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 23 May 2016.
  43. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (24 May 2016). "Newshub poll: Key's popularity plummets to lowest level". Newshub. Retrieved 24 May 2016.
  44. ^ Davison, Isaac (31 May 2016). "Labour, Greens to work together to stop National at next election". The New Zealand Herald. Retrieved 31 May 2016.
  45. ^ "Current ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 7 June 2016. Retrieved 7 June 2016.
  46. ^ "National and Labour down in June but New Zealand First still holds the balance of power if Election was held now". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 20 June 2016.
  47. ^ "National extends lead over Labour to highest in over a year as Government unveils $1 billion housing infrastructure fund". Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 22 July 2016.
  48. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (8 August 2016). "Poll: John Key could lose grip on power". Newshub. Retrieved 8 August 2016.
  49. ^ "National support down but still has election winning lead after boost from $1 billion housing infrastructure fund announcement wears off". Retrieved 8 September 2016.
  50. ^ "Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook". Colmar Brunton. 13 September 2016. Retrieved 13 September 2016.
  51. ^ "National Party support is at lowest level since before election; now behind potential Labour/ Greens Alliance". Retrieved 27 September 2016.
  52. ^ "National Party support up in October; now well ahead of potential Labour/ Greens alliance after successful overseas trips for PM Key". Retrieved 4 November 2016.
  53. ^ a b c d e "Poll-infographic-with-econ-outlook" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. 27 November 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 14 February 2019. Retrieved 28 November 2016.
  54. ^ "National Party support up again in November as Roy Morgan Government Confidence surges despite series of earthquakes". Retrieved 30 November 2016.
  55. ^ "National Party support down in December as PM Key resigns and Labour score easy by-election victory in Mt. Roskill". Retrieved 21 December 2016.
  56. ^ "National Party support up slightly in January as new Prime Minister Bill English returns from 'introductory tour' to Europe". Retrieved 22 January 2017.
  57. ^ "National Party support up slightly in February as new PM Bill English welcomes visit of Australian PM Malcolm Turnbull".
  58. ^ a b "1 NEWS poll: Labour and Greens close gap on National following John Key's departure". One News. 19 February 2017. Retrieved 19 February 2017.
  59. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll : 11–15 February 2017" (PDF). Colmarbrunton.co.nz. Retrieved 23 March 2017.
  60. ^ "Registration of The Opportunities Party (TOP)". Electoral Commission (New Zealand). Archived from the original on 31 August 2018. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
  61. ^ "National Party well down in March as Prime Minister Bill English talks of lifting retirement age to 67 – lowest party vote since September 2016". Roymorgan.com. Retrieved 22 March 2017.e
  62. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (21 March 2017). "poll: Jacinda Ardern preferred as PM over Andrew Little". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 23 March 2017.
  63. ^ a b "New Zealand election 2017: Newshub-Reid Research poll data bank". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 27 August 2017.
  64. ^ "Maori Party surges into potential Kingmaker position in latest poll". TVNZ. Retrieved 16 April 2017.
  65. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll : 18–22 March 2017" (PDF). Colmarbrunton.co.nz. Retrieved 28 April 2017.
  66. ^ "New Zealand First in the box seat to decide next NZ Government as National Party neck-and-neck with Labour/ Greens". Roymorgan.com. Retrieved 29 April 2017.
  67. ^ "National Party remains 'dead-locked' with Labour/Greens alliance in May pre-Budget". Roy Morgan Research. 26 May 2017. Retrieved 27 May 2017.
  68. ^ a b "New Zealand Election 2017: Undercurrents of change in new poll". noted.co.nz. 8 June 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
  69. ^ a b "National hits six-month high in latest poll as Labour fails to make gains, Green Party slips". TVNZ. Retrieved 7 June 2017.
  70. ^ "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll" (pDF). Colmarbrunton.co.nz. 27 May 2017. Retrieved 11 July 2017.
  71. ^ "National Party consolidates lead after NZ Budget projects years of surpluses". Roy Morgan Research. 23 June 2017.
  72. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (15 June 2017). "Poll: Labour crumbles, falling towards defeat". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  73. ^ "Politicians, police, and the payout". Newsroom. 19 June 2017. Retrieved 4 July 2017.
  74. ^ "Police reopen investigation into Todd Barclay". Stuff. 26 June 2017. Retrieved 4 July 2017.
  75. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 1–5 July 2017" (PDF).
  76. ^ "In July Labour/Greens now just ahead of National but New Zealand First again in the 'box seat'". Roy Morgan Research. 9 July 2017. Retrieved 31 August 2017.
  77. ^ "Benefit raise, tax cuts for poorest and hikes for wealthy in new Greens policy". Stuff. 16 June 2017. Retrieved 30 July 2017.
  78. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 22–27 July 2017".
  79. ^ "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 22–27 Aug 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 4 September 2016.
  80. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (20–28 July 2017). "Poll: Newshub poll: Winston Peters cements position as kingmaker". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 31 July 2017.
  81. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/new-zealand-election-2017-newshub-reid-research-poll-data-bank.html
  82. ^ "Why Labour's last-minute leadership change may be its salvation". noted.co.nz. 4 August 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
  83. ^ Kirk, Stacey (4 August 2017). "Metiria Turei admits she registered a false address to vote". stuff.co.nz. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  84. ^ "Two Green MPs quit over Metiria Turei admissions". stuff.co.nz. 7 August 2017. Retrieved 8 August 2017.
  85. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (9 August 2017). "Newshub poll: Jacinda Ardern Brings Labour Back". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 9 August 2017.
  86. ^ "Livestream: Metiria Turei resigns as Green Party co-leader". Newshub. Retrieved 9 August 2017.
  87. ^ "Jacinda Ardern's ascension to leadership revitalises Labour, up 2% to 32.5%; Turei scandal costs Greens support, down 4.5% to 9%".
  88. ^ a b "1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Greens plummet below five per cent, 'Jacinda effect' keeps Labour climbing".
  89. ^ "1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 12–16 Aug 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 4 September 2016.
  90. ^ a b c "Peter Dunne resigns from politics only weeks out from the election". stuff.co.nz. 21 August 2017. Retrieved 21 August 2017.
  91. ^ "UnitedFuture appoints Damian Light as new leader". unitedfuture.org.nz. 23 August 2017. Archived from the original on 21 October 2017. Retrieved 2 September 2017.
  92. ^ "Winston Peters' shifting story over pension overpayment". newshub.co.nz. 27 August 2017. Retrieved 31 August 2017.
  93. ^ "Timeline: Winston Peters' superannuation overpayments saga". radionz.co.nz. 29 August 2017. Retrieved 31 August 2017.
  94. ^ a b Gower, Patrick (3 September 2017). "Newshub poll: National and Labour in one-on-one fight for power". Newshub.co.nz. Retrieved 3 September 2017.
  95. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 26–30 August 2017".
  96. ^ a b "1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 26–30 Aug 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 4 September 2016.
  97. ^ a b "Poll: Labour, National and the crucial 8%". noted.co.nz. 8 September 2017. Retrieved 8 September 2017.
  98. ^ a b "ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll 2–6 September 2017". Colmar Brunton. 7 September 2017. Retrieved 7 September 2017.
  99. ^ a b "1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 2–6 September 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 9 September 2016.
  100. ^ a b https://www.newsroom.co.nz/2017/09/08/46799/labour-gap-women
  101. ^ "New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured with the support of the Greens & Maori Party as 'Jacindamania' pulls support from National & New Zealand First".
  102. ^ "Greens out of Parliament on latest Newshub's poll". Newshub.co.nz. 12 September 2017.
  103. ^ "Advance voting starts today". Radio New Zealand. 11 September 2017.
  104. ^ a b "New 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll: Labour maintains four point lead over National, could govern with Greens". 14 September 2017.
  105. ^ a b "1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 9–13 September 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 16 September 2016.
  106. ^ a b "Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power". Newshub.co.nz. 21 September 2017.
  107. ^ http://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2017/07/new-zealand-election-2017-newshub-reid-research-poll-data-bank.html
  108. ^ a b "New poll: National takes huge lead in bombshell 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll". 20 September 2017.
  109. ^ a b "1 News Colmar Brunton Poll 16–19 September 2017" (PDF). Colmar Brunton. Retrieved 25 September 2016.
  110. ^ "2017 General Election – Official Result". Wellington: Electoral Commission. 7 October 2017. Retrieved 7 October 2017.
  111. ^ a b c "Annual Review: Mood of the Nation 2014" (PDF). UMR Research. February 2015. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  112. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Annual Review: Mood of the Nation 2015" (PDF). UMR Research. February 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  113. ^ "Labour and the Greens ahead based on the Opposition's own polling". UMR Research. 5 September 2016. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  114. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l "Labour's confidential polling leaked". UMR Research. 14 July 2017. Retrieved 29 August 2017.
  115. ^ "Leaked poll puts Labour at just 23 percent". UMR Research. July 2017. Retrieved 29 August 2017.
  116. ^ "NZ First up to 16% in election poll". UMR Research. July 2017. Retrieved 29 August 2017.
  117. ^ "Labour surges, Greens and NZ First suffer in new polls". UMR Research. 8 August 2017. Retrieved 29 August 2017.
  118. ^ "By the numbers: Winston in the driver's seat". UMR Research. 10 August 2017. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  119. ^ "More good news for Labour as Jacinda Ardern prepares for campaign launch". UMR Research. 20 August 2017. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  120. ^ "Live: On the campaign trail". Stuff. Retrieved 30 August 2017.
  121. ^ Hickey, Bernard; Murphy, Tim; Jennings, Mark (20 September 2017). "Election 2017 Live: National surges into big poll lead". Retrieved 25 September 2017.
  122. ^ a b c d e f g "TV3 Poll Results". www.reidresearch.co.nz. Retrieved 11 September 2017.
  123. ^ a b c d e f ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll report 22-27 July 2017
  124. ^ [1]
  125. ^ "UnitedFuture appoints Damian Light as new leader". 23 August 2017. Archived from the original on 21 October 2017. Retrieved 9 September 2017.
  126. ^ "Bill English NZ's preferred PM on latest Newshub poll". 12 September 2017.
  127. ^ a b "Q+A Colmar Brunton Ōhāriu poll" (PDF).
  128. ^ "Greens step aside in Ōhāriu to help Labour's O'Connor". stuff.co.nz. 14 February 2017. Retrieved 23 August 2017.
  129. ^ "UnitedFuture announces Bale Nadakuitavuki as candidate for Ohariu".
  130. ^ "Tane Woodley reintroduced as Green Party candidate for Ōhāriu". stuff.co.nz. 23 August 2017. Retrieved 23 August 2017.
  131. ^ a b "Labour poll suggests it's game-on in Waiariki". 30 July 2017. Retrieved 5 September 2017.
  132. ^ a b "Flavell runs the polls". maoritelevision.com. 10 September 2017. Retrieved 10 September 2017.
  133. ^ "Waititi inspired by Maori King to ditch Labour". opotikinews.co.nz. 30 August 2016. Retrieved 26 August 2017.
  134. ^ "Tamati Coffey to take on Flavell for Waiariki seat". stuff.co.nz. 7 October 2016. Retrieved 26 August 2017.
  135. ^ "Hone Harawira gets clear Te Tai Tokerau run for Mana not running against Maori Party in other seats".
  136. ^ "Māori TV, Reid Research Poll, 17 Aug 2017".
  137. ^ a b "Shane Jones confirmed as NZ First candidate for Whangarei". stuff.co.nz. 30 June 2017. Retrieved 27 August 2017.
  138. ^ a b "Q+A Colmar Brunton, Whangarei poll, 19 – 22 Aug 2017" (PDF). 22 August 2017. Retrieved 1 September 2017.
  139. ^ a b c d e f "It's all on – polling for three Māori electorates released".
  140. ^ a b "House of Mahuta rules in polls". maoritelevision.com. 10 September 2017. Retrieved 10 September 2017.
  141. ^ a b "Undecided could decide Auckland Māori seat". 18 September 2017.
  142. ^ a b "Poll: Clear majority for Kelvin Davis in Te Tai Tokerau". 20 September 2017.
  143. ^ "Herald election forecasts explained". NZ Herald.
  144. ^ "Newshub election poll: Either National, Labour could take power". Newshub.co.nz. 21 September 2017.
  145. ^ "New poll: National takes huge lead in bombshell 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll". Television New Zealand. 20 September 2017.
  146. ^ "New Zealand Election on a knife edge but Labour favoured with the support of the Greens & Maori Party as 'Jacindamania' pulls support from National & New Zealand First". Roy Morgan.
  147. ^ "Poll of the final polls - too complicated to call". Radio New Zealand.
  148. ^ "Election forecast". New Zealand Herald.
  149. ^ "Stuff poll of polls: Election result too close to call". Stuff.
  150. ^ Peter's Stats Stuff
  151. ^ NZ Election Prediction
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Opinion_polling_for_the_2017_New_Zealand_general_election&oldid=953125066"