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2012 Basque regional election

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Basque regional election, 2012
← 2009 21 October 2012 2016 →
All 75 seats in the Basque Parliament
38 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered1,775,351 0.0%
Turnout1,135,568 (64.0%)
0.7 pp
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Iñigo Urkullu Laura Mintegi Patxi López
Party EAJ/PNV EH Bildu PSOE
Leader since 2 December 2007 2 July 2012 23 March 2002
Leader's seat Biscay Biscay Álava
Last election 30 seats, 38.1% 5 seats, 9.6%[a] 25 seats, 30.4%
Seats won 27 21 16
Seat change 3 16 9
Popular vote 384,766 277,923 212,809
Percentage 34.2% 24.7% 18.9%
Swing 3.9 pp 15.1 pp 11.5 pp
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Antonio Basagoiti Gorka Maneiro
Party PP UPyD
Leader since 25 October 2008 2008
Leader's seat Biscay Álava
Last election 13 seats, 13.9% 1 seat, 2.1%
Seats won 10 1
Seat change 3 0
Popular vote 130,584 21,539
Percentage 11.6% 1.9%
Swing 2.3 pp 0.2 pp
Constituency results map for the Basque Parliament
Lehendakari before election

Patxi López
PSOE

Elected Lehendakari

Iñigo Urkullu
EAJ/PNV

The 2012 Basque regional election was held on Sunday, 21 October 2012, to elect the 10th Parliament of the Basque Autonomous Community. All 75 seats in the Parliament were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with a regional election in Galicia.

Lehendakari Patxi López announced the snap election half a year before scheduled as a result of the People's Party (PP) withdrawing their support from the government.[1] The election saw a plummeting of the ruling Socialist Party (PSE–EE) share, with the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) retaining first place and returning to government after its first time in opposition. The abertzale left experienced a major breakthrough under the EH Bildu label, after 9 years of political illegalization. The PP deepened on its long-term decline and scored its worst result since 1990, while Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) retained its single seat in Parliament.[2]

Overview

Background

Following the 2009 regional election, Patxi López of the Basque Socialist Party (PSE-EE) became the first Lehendakari (i.e. regional president) in thirty years not to be affiliated to the Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ-PNV).

In 2011 Eusko Alkartasuna (EA), Alternatiba, other abertzale groups and independent individuals from the Basque leftist-nationalist milieu, formed a coalition named Bildu.

In the 2011 municipal elections, the EAJ-PNV came first with 30.1% of the vote, but the big winner was Bildu, which obtained 25.5% and a majority of town councillors. Among the other parties, the PSE-EE gained 16.3%, the People's Party (PP) 13.5%, and Aralar 3.0%.[3]

In late 2011 the leftist-secessionist coalition was enlarged to include other abertzale groups, including Aralar. In the 2011 general election, this new coalition, known as Amaiur, came second in the Basque Country with 24.1% of the vote, behind the EAJ-PNV, which came first with 27.4%. Among the other parties, the PSE-EE won 21.5% of the vote and the PP 17.8%.[4]

The four main groups that constituted Amaiur, namely abertzale left (former Batasuna members, led by Rufi Etxeberria), EA, Alternatiba and Aralar, announced that they would also stand as part of a joint list also in the election.[5] That list was named EH Bildu (EHB)[6] and Laura Mintegi was chosen as candidate for Lehendakari.[7]

Electoral system

The Basque Parliament was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of the Basque Country, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Basque Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a Lehendakari.[8] Voting for the Parliament was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over eighteen, registered in the Basque Country and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Basques abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a registration system known in Spain as a "begged vote" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[9]

The 75 members of the Basque Parliament were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with a threshold of 3 percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Parties not reaching the threshold were not taken into consideration for seat distribution. Additionally, the use of the D'Hondt method might result in an effective threshold over three percent, depending on the district magnitude.[10] Seats were allocated to constituencies, corresponding to the Basque provinces of Álava, Biscay and Gipuzkoa. Each constituency was allocated a fixed number of 25 seats each, to provide for an equal representation of the three provinces in Parliament as required under the regional Statute of Autonomy.[8][11] This meant that Álava was allocated the same number of seats as Biscay and Gipuzkoa, despite their populations being, as of 1 July 2012: 319,786, 1,152,156 and 708,042, respectively.[12]

The electoral law provided that parties, federations, coalitions and groupings of electors were allowed to present lists of candidates. However, groupings of electors were required to secure the signature of at least 1 percent of the electors registered in the constituency for which they sought election. Electors were barred from signing for more than one list of candidates. Concurrently, parties and federations intending to enter in coalition to take part jointly at an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election being called.[11][13][14]

Election date

The term of the Basque Parliament expired four years after the date of its previous election, unless it was dissolved earlier. The election Decree was required to be issued no later than the twenty-fifth day prior to the date of expiry of parliament and published on the following day in the Official Gazette of the Basque Country, with election day taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication. The previous election was held on 1 March 2009, which meant that the legislature's term would have expired on 1 March 2013. The election Decree was required to be published no later than 5 February 2013, with the election taking place on the fifty-fourth day from publication, setting the latest possible election date for the Parliament on Sunday, 31 March 2013.[8][11]

The Lehendakari had the prerogative to dissolve the Basque Parliament at any given time and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a Lehendakari within a sixty-day period from the Parliament re-assembly, the Parliament was to be dissolved and a fresh election called.[15]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a given poll. When available, seat projections are also displayed below the voting estimates in a smaller font. 38 seats were required for an absolute majority in the Basque Parliament.

Color key:

  Exit poll

Results

Overall

← Summary of the 21 October 2012 Basque Parliament election results →
Parties and coalitions Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
width="1" bgcolor="Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color"| Basque Nationalist Party (EAJ/PNV) 384,766 34.16 –3.98 27 –3
bgcolor="Template:EH Bildu/meta/color"| Basque Country Unite (EH Bildu)1 277,923 24.67 +15.05 21 +16
bgcolor="Template:Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left/meta/color"| Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left (PSE–EE (PSOE)) 212,809 18.89 –11.47 16 –9
bgcolor="Template:People's Party of the Basque Country/meta/color"| People's Party (PP) 130,584 11.59 –2.36 10 –3
bgcolor="Template:Ezker Anitza/meta/color"| United Left–The Greens: Plural Left (IU–LV) 30,318 2.69 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color"| Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 21,539 1.91 –0.21 1 ±0
bgcolor="Template:United Left–Greens/meta/color"| United Left–Greens (EB–B) 17,345 1.54 –1.93 0 –1
bgcolor="Template:Equo/meta/color"| Equo Greens–Basque Ecologists (EB–EE) 11,625 1.03 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Blank Seats/meta/color"| Blank Seats (EB/AZ) 11,480 1.02 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals/meta/color"| Animalist Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA/ATTKAA) 4,066 0.36 +0.22 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Hartos.org/meta/color"| Hartos.org (Hartos.org) 2,831 0.25 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:For a Fairer World/meta/color"| For a Fairer World (PUM+J) 2,476 0.22 –0.07 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Humanist Party (Spain)/meta/color"| Humanist Party (PH) 1,113 0.10 +0.06 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Family and Life Party/meta/color"| Family and Life Party (PFyV) 821 0.07 –0.03 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party/meta/color"| Internationalist Socialist Workers' Party (POSI) 778 0.07 –0.04 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Communist Unification of Spain/meta/color"| Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 684 0.06 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain/meta/color"| Basque Communists–Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (EK–PCPE) 442 0.04 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Ongi Etorri/meta/color"| Welcome (Ongi Etorri) 101 0.01 New 0 ±0
bgcolor="Template:Community Integration Party/meta/color"| Community Integration Party (PYC) 59 0.01 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 14,640 1.30 +0.20
Total 1,126,400 75 ±0
Valid votes 1,126,400 99.18 +7.98
Invalid votes 9,168 0.81 –7.98
Votes cast / turnout 1,135,568 63.96 –0.72
Abstentions 639,783 36.04 +0.72
Registered voters 1,775,351
Sources[16][17]
Popular vote
EAJ/PNV
 
 34.16%
EH Bildu
 
 24.67%
PSE–EE (PSOE)
 
 18.89%
PP
 
 11.59%
IU–LV
 
 2.69%
UPyD
 
 1.91%
EB–B
 
 1.54%
EB–EE
 
 1.03%
EB/AZ
 
 1.02%
Others
 
 1.19%
Blank ballots
 
 1.30%
Seats
EAJ/PNV
 
 36.00%
EH Bildu
 
 28.00%
PSE–EE (PSOE)
 
 21.33%
PP
 
 13.33%
UPyD
 
 1.33%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PNV EH Bildu PSE–EE PP UPyD
colspan="2" style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:EH Bildu/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Socialist Party of the Basque Country–Basque Country Left/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:People's Party of the Basque Country/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Union, Progress and Democracy/meta/color"|
% S % S % S % S % S
Álava style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 25.5 7 21.7 6 19.3 6 18.7 5 3.5 1
Biscay style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 37.9 11 21.2 6 18.7 5 11.7 3 1.8 −
Gipuzkoa 31.6 9 style="background:Template:EH Bildu/meta/color; color:white;"| 31.8 9 19.0 5 8.4 2 1.4 −
Total style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color; color:white;"| 34.2 27 24.7 21 18.9 16 11.6 10 1.9 1
Sources[16][17]

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot → 12 December 2012 13 December 2012
Required majority → 38 out of 75 Simple
width="1px" style="background:Template:Basque Nationalist Party/meta/color;"|
27 / 75
 ☒N
27 / 75
 checkY
style="background:Template:EH Bildu/meta/color;"|
21 / 75
 ☒N
21 / 75
 ☒N
Blank ballots
27 / 75
27 / 75
Absentees
0 / 75
0 / 75
Sources[17]

Notes

  1. ^ Aggregated data for Aralar and EA in the 2009 election.

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "EAJ/PNV gana las Elecciones en la CAV / Euskadi - 2012 parlamentaria". El Otro Lado (in Spanish). 21 October 2012.
  2. ^ "Spanish exit polls: Sampling error or nonresponse bias?" (PDF). Revista Internacional de Sociología. 23 August 2016.
  3. ^ a b "Ganaría el PNV e intentaría gobernar solo sin mayoría". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 October 2012.
  4. ^ "Encuesta de intención de voto (reparto de escaños y % de voto)" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 14 October 2012.
  5. ^ "El PNV cosecha un tercio de los votos y Bildu, casi la cuarta parte". El Mundo (in Spanish). 13 October 2012.
  6. ^ "El PNV ganará las elecciones en Euskadi, según el ObSERvatorio". Cadena SER (in Spanish). 15 October 2012.
  7. ^ "Estudio preelectoral del País Vasco (15/10/2012)" (PDF). MyWord (in Spanish). 15 October 2012.
  8. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 13 October 2012.
  9. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 12 October 2012.
  10. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 11 October 2012.
  11. ^ "El PNV gana sin mayoría suficiente y en Gipuzkoa acorta distancias con EH Bildu". Diario Vasco (in Spanish). 13 October 2012.
  12. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 10 October 2012.
  13. ^ "Estudio preelectoral. Elecciones Autonómicas 2012 (Octubre 2012)" (PDF). Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 13 October 2012.
  14. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 8 October 2012.
  15. ^ a b "PNV y Bildu se mantienen en cabeza". La Razón (in Spanish). 8 October 2012.
  16. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 7 October 2012.
  17. ^ "El PNV ganaría las elecciones sin un margen suficiente que le asegure acceder a Ajuria Enea". Noticias de Gipuzkoa (in Spanish). 13 October 2012.
  18. ^ "Intención de voto" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 5 October 2012.
  19. ^ "Encuesta de intención de voto (reparto de escaños y % de voto)" (PDF). Naiz (in Spanish). 4 October 2012.
  20. ^ "Preelectoral del País Vasco. Elecciones autonómicas, 2012 (Estudio nº 2959. Septiembre 2012)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 October 2012.
  21. ^ "El PP revalidaría su mayoría en Galicia y el PNV volvería a ganar en Euskadi". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 October 2012.
  22. ^ "EHBildu gana hasta dos escaños en perjuicio de PNV y PSOE". La Razón (in Spanish). 24 September 2012.
  23. ^ "El PNV se mantiene como el partido más votado". La Razón (in Spanish). 17 September 2012.
  24. ^ "Deriva soberanista en el País Vasco". La Razón (in Spanish). 27 August 2012.
  25. ^ "Apoyo histórico al nacionalismo". El Mundo (in Spanish). 26 August 2012.
  26. ^ "Los nacionalistas se crecen ante el retroceso del PSE". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 June 2012.
  27. ^ "Libertad Digital. 27 de junio de 2012. Elecciones Parlamento Vasco 2012". Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 27 June 2012.
  28. ^ "El PNV ganaría con holgura a EH Bildu en un Parlamento de mayoría nacioanalista". Diario Vasco (in Spanish). 24 June 2012.
  29. ^ "El Correo. 24 de junio de 2012. Elecciones Parlamento Vasco 2012". Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 24 June 2012.
  30. ^ "Estimaciones Electorales del Euskobarómetro de Mayo de 2012 para el Parlamento Vasco". EHU (in Spanish). 29 June 2012.
  31. ^ "El PSOE se hunde y el PP sube a los tres años del pacto vasco". La Razón (in Spanish). 14 May 2012.
  32. ^ "Amaiur sería el primer grupo en el Parlamento de Gasteiz". Gara (in Spanish). 23 April 2012.
  33. ^ "Gara. 23 de abril de 2012. Elecciones Parlamento Vasco 2012". Eusko Jaurlaritza (in Spanish). 23 April 2012.
  34. ^ "Estimaciones Electorales para el Parlamento Vasco. Euskobarómetro Noviembre 2011". EHU (in Spanish). 1 March 2012.
  35. ^ "La entrada de la izquierda abertzale dejaría a PSE y PP sin su mayoría parlamentaria". Noticias de Álava (in Spanish). 13 February 2011.
  36. ^ "Las lecciones de una encuesta". Arabatik (in Spanish). 14 February 2011.
  37. ^ "Encuesta sobre la situación sociopolítica de la CAV". Gizaker (in Spanish). 13 February 2011.
  38. ^ "Álava desactivaría, un año después, la mayoría absoluta del pacto de PSE y PP". Noticias de Álava (in Spanish). 2 April 2010.
  39. ^ "Álava desactivaría, un año después, la mayoría absoluta del pacto de PSE y PP". Arabako Aralar (in Spanish). 2 April 2010.
Other
  1. ^ "Patxi López calls early poll for Basques to choose an anti-crisis "model"" (in Spanish). El Pais. 2012-08-21. Retrieved 2012-08-21. {{cite web}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |publisher= (help)
  2. ^ "PSOE's collapse and Feijóo save Rajoy ahead of the soberanist challenge in the Basque Country", El País (in Spanish), 2012-10-21 {{citation}}: Italic or bold markup not allowed in: |newspaper= (help)
  3. ^ http://elecciones.mir.es/resultados2011/99MU/DMU14999CM_L1.htm
  4. ^ http://elecciones.mir.es/resultadosgenerales2011/99CG/DCG14999CM_L1.htm
  5. ^ http://www.deia.com/2012/02/22/politica/euskadi/la-ia-ea-alternatiba-y-aralar-concurriran-juntos-a-las-proximas-elecciones-vascas-
  6. ^ http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2012/06/09/paisvasco/1339264728_612106.html
  7. ^ http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20120702/54319662264/laura-mintegi-candidata-lehendakari-coalicion-abertzale-euskal-herria-bildu.html
  8. ^ a b c Statute of Autonomy for the Basque Country of 1979. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 3) (in Spanish). 18 December 1979. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  9. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  10. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  11. ^ a b c Basque Parliament Elections Law of 1990. Official Gazette of the Basque Country (Law 5) (in Spanish). 15 June 1990. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  12. ^ "Series detalladas desde 2002. Resultados por Provincias. Población residente por fecha, sexo y edad". ine.es (in Spanish). National Institute of Statistics. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  13. ^ General Electoral System Organic Law of 1985. Official State Gazette (Organic Law 5) (in Spanish). 19 June 1985. Retrieved 28 December 2016.
  14. ^ "Representation of the people Institutional Act". juntaelectoralcentral.es. Central Electoral Commission. Retrieved 16 June 2017.
  15. ^ Government Law of 1981. Official Gazette of the Basque Country (Law 7) (in Spanish). 30 June 1981. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  16. ^ a b "Election Results Archive". euskadi.eus (in Spanish). Basque Government. Retrieved 24 September 2017.
  17. ^ a b c "Basque Parliament elections since 1980". historiaelectoral.com (in Spanish). Electoral History. Retrieved 24 September 2017.
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