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Instrumental temperature record

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For temperature changes on other time scales, see Temperature record.
Line plot of global mean land-ocean surface temperature index, 1880 to present, with the base period 1951-1980. The black line is the annual mean and the red line is the five-year running mean. [This is an update of Fig. 1A in Hansen et al. (2006).] The graph shows an overall long-term warming trend.
Watch how summer temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere change from 1955 to 2011. "Hot" (orange), "very hot" (red) "extremely hot" (brown) "average" (white), unusually "cold" (light blue), "very cold" (dark blue) and "extremely cold" (purple).

The instrumental temperature record provides the temperature of Earth's climate system from the historical network of in situ measurements of surface air temperatures and ocean surface temperatures. Data are collected at thousands of meteorological stations, buoys and ships around the globe. The longest-running temperature record is the Central England temperature data series, that starts in 1659. The longest-running quasi-global record starts in 1850.[1] In recent decades instruments more extensive sampling of ocean temperatures at various depths have begun allowing estimates of ocean heat content but these do not form part of the global surface temperature datasets.

The global average and combined land and ocean surface temperature, show a warming of 0.85 [0.65 to 1.06] °C, in the period 1880 to 2012, based on multiple independently produced datasets.[2] This gives a trend of 0.064 ± 0.015 °C per decade over that period. The trend is faster for land than ocean, faster for Arctic regions, and faster since the 1970s than the longer period.

Warming in the instrumental temperature record

Most of the observed warming occurred in two periods: around 1900 to around 1940 and around 1970 onwards;[3] the cooling/plateau from 1940 to 1970 has been mostly attributed to sulphate aerosol.[4][5] Some of the temperature variations over this time period may also be due to ocean circulation patterns.[6]

Attribution of the temperature change to natural or anthropogenic (i.e., human-induced) factors is an important question: see global warming and attribution of recent climate change.

Land air temperatures are rising faster than sea surface temperatures. Over 1979 to 2012 the trend for land was about 0.254 ± 0.050 °C per decade per CruTemp4 or 0.273 ± 0.047 per GHCN while the trend for sea surface temperatures is about 0.072 ± 0.024 °C per decade per HadISST to 0.124 ± 0.030 °C per decade per HadSST3 [7]

For 1979 to 2012, the linear warming trend for combined land and sea temperatures has been 0.155 °C [0.122 to 0.188 °C] per decade according to AR5.[8]

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report found that the instrumental temperature record for the past century included urban heat island effects but that these were primarily local, having a negligible influence on global temperature trends (less than 0.006 °C per decade over land and zero over the oceans).[9]

Uncertainties in the temperature record, e.g., the urban heat island effect, are discussed further in a later section.

Warmest periods

Warmest years

NOAA graph of Global Annual Temperature Anomalies 1950–2012

15 of the top 16 warmest years have occurred since 2000.[10] March 2016 was the hottest month on record, making it the 11th month in a row of global high temperature records.[11] 2015 was not only the warmest year on record, but broke the record by the largest margin by which the record has been broken.[12] 2015 was the 39th consecutive year with above-average temperatures. Ocean oscillations like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can affect global average temperatures; for example, 1998 and 2015 temperatures were significantly enhanced by strong El Niño conditions. The large margin by which 2015 is the warmest year is also attributed to another strong El Nino. However, 2014 was ENSO neutral.

While record-breaking years can attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. Some climatologists have criticized the attention that the popular press gives to "warmest year" statistics; for example, Gavin Schmidt stated "the long-term trends or the expected sequence of records are far more important than whether any single year is a record or not."[13]

Based on the NOAA dataset, the following table lists the global combined land and ocean annually-averaged temperature rank and anomaly for each of the 16 warmest years on record.[14]

Top 16 Warmest Years (NOAA) (1880–2015)
Rank Year Anomaly °C Anomaly °F
1 2015 0.90 1.62
2 2014 0.74 1.33
3 2010 0.70 1.26
4 2013 0.66 1.19
5 2005 0.65 1.17
6 (tie) 1998 0.63 1.13
6 (tie) 2009 0.63 1.13
8 2012 0.62 1.12
9 (tie) 2003 0.61 1.10
9 (tie) 2006 0.61 1.10
9 (tie) 2007 0.61 1.10
12 2002 0.60 1.08
13 (tie) 2004 0.57 1.03
13 (tie) 2011 0.57 1.03
15 (tie) 2001 0.54 0.97
15 (tie) 2008 0.54 0.97

Although the NCDC temperature record begins in 1880, reconstructions of earlier temperatures based on climate proxies, suggest these years may be the warmest for several centuries to millennia, or longer.

Warmest decades

Refer to caption and image description
Global temperature change — decadal averages, 1880s-2000s (NOAA).[15]
Refer to caption
1880–2011 Global annual and decadal mean surface temperature change. Data Source: NOAA

Numerous cycles have been found to influence annual global mean temperatures. The tropical El Niño-La Niña cycle and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are the most well-known of these cycles.[16] An examination of the average global temperature changes by decades reveals continuing climate change,[17] and AR5 reports "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). In the Northern Hemisphere, 1983–2012 was likely the warmest 30-year period of the last 1400 years (medium confidence)".[18]

The Following chart is from NASA data of combined land-surface air and sea-surface water temperature anomalies.

Years Temp. anomaly
(°C anomaly (°F anomaly) from 1951–1980 mean)
1880–1889 −0.274 °C (−0.493 °F)
1890–1899 −0.254 °C (−0.457 °F)
1900–1909 −0.259 °C (−0.466 °F)
1910–1919 −0.276 °C (−0.497 °F)
1920–1929 −0.175 °C (−0.315 °F)
1930–1939 −0.043 °C (−0.0774 °F)
1940–1949 0.035 °C (0.0630 °F)
1950–1959 −0.02 °C (−0.0360 °F)
1960–1969 −0.014 °C (−0.0252 °F)
1970–1979 −0.001 °C (−0.00180 °F)
1980–1989 0.176 °C (0.317 °F)
1990–1999 0.313 °C (0.563 °F)
2000–2009 0.513 °C (0.923 °F)
2010–2014 (note: incomplete) 0.728 °C (1.31 °F)

Influences on global temperature

Global surface temperature change for the period 1980-2004. The blue line is the monthly average, the black line is the annual average and the red line is the 5-year running average. Data source: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/
Main articles: Global warming and Attribution of recent climate change

Greenhouse gases trap outgoing radiation warming the atmosphere which in turn warms the land.

El Niño generally tends to increase global temperatures around the globe. La Niña, on the other hand, usually causes years which are cooler than the short-term average.[19] El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and La Niña the cold phase.

Aerosols diffuse incoming radiation generally cooling the planet. Volcanoes are the largest source but there are also anthropogenic sources. There are several other effects such as clouds. Some aerosols like black carbon have warming effects.

Land use change like deforestation can increase greenhouse gases through burning biomass. Albedo can also be changed.

Incoming solar radiation varies very slightly with the main variation being an approximately 11-year cycle.

Absolute temperatures v. anomalies

Records of global average surface temperature are usually presented as anomalies rather than as absolute temperatures. A temperature anomaly is measured against a reference value or long-term average.[20] For example, if the reference value is 15 °C, and the measured temperature is 17 °C, then the temperature anomaly is +2 °C (i.e., 17 °C -15 °C).

Temperature anomalies are useful for deriving average surface temperatures because they tend to be highly correlated over large distances (of the order of 1000 km).[21] In other words, anomalies are representative of temperature changes over large areas and distances. By comparison, absolute temperatures vary markedly over even short distances.

The Earth's average surface absolute temperature for the 1961-1990 period has been derived by spatial interpolation of average observed near-surface air temperatures from over the land, oceans and sea ice regions, with a best estimate of 14 °C (57.2 °F).[22] The estimate is uncertain, but probably lies within 0.5 °C of the true value.[22] Given the difference in uncertainties between this absolute value and any annual anomaly, it's not valid to add them together to imply a precise absolute value for a specific year.[23]

Global record from 1850

The period for which reasonably reliable instrumental records of near-surface temperature exist with quasi-global coverage is generally considered to begin around 1850. Earlier records exist, but with sparser coverage and less standardized instrumentation.

The temperature data for the record come from measurements from land stations and ships. On land, temperature sensors are kept in a Stevenson screen or a maximum minimum temperature system (MMTS). The sea record consists of surface ships taking sea temperature measurements from engine inlets or buckets. The land and marine records can be compared.[24] Land and sea measurement and instrument calibration is the responsibility of national meteorological services. Standardization of methods is organized through the World Meteorological Organization and its predecessor, the International Meteorological Organization.[25]

Most meteorological observations are taken for use in weather forecasts. Centers such as ECMWF show instantaneous map of their coverage; or the Hadley Centre show the coverage for the average of the year 2000. Coverage for earlier in the 20th and 19th centuries would be significantly less. While temperature changes vary both in size and direction from one location to another, the numbers from different locations are combined to produce an estimate of a global average change.

Robustness of evidence

There is a scientific consensus that climate change is occurring and that greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver.[26] The scientific consensus is reflected in example, by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) an international body which summarizes existing science, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program.[26]

The methods used to derive the principal estimates of global surface temperature trends — HadCRUT3, NOAA and NASA/GISS — are largely independent.

Other reports and assessments

Refer to caption
This graph shows how short-term variations occur in the global temperature record. However, the graph still shows a long-term trend of global warming. Image source: NCADAC.[27]

The U.S. National Academy of Sciences, both in its 2002 report to President George W. Bush, and in later publications, has strongly endorsed evidence of an average global temperature increase in the 20th century.[28]

The preliminary results of an assessment carried out by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature group and made public in October 2011, found that over the past 50 years the land surface warmed by 0.911 °C, and their results mirrors those obtained from earlier studies carried out by the NOAA, the Hadley Centre and NASA's GISS. The study addressed concerns raised by "skeptics"[29][30] including urban heat island effect, "poor"[29] station quality, and the "issue of data selection bias"[29] and found that these effects did not bias the results obtained from these earlier studies.[29][31][32][33]

Internal climate variability and global warming

Further information: Attribution of recent climate change § Internal climate variability and global warming

One of the issues that has been raised in the media is the view that global warming "stopped in 1998".[34][35] This view ignores the presence of internal climate variability.[35][36] Internal climate variability is a result of complex interactions between components of the climate system, such as the coupling between the atmosphere and ocean.[37] An example of internal climate variability is the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).[35][36] The El Niño in 1998 was particularly strong, possibly one of the strongest of the 20th century.[35]

Cooling between 2006 and 2008, for instance, was likely driven by La Niña, the opposite of El Niño conditions.[38] The area of cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures that defines La Niña conditions can push global temperatures downward, if the phenomenon is strong enough.[38] Even accounting for the presence of internal climate variability, recent years rank among the warmest on record.[39] For example, every year of the 2000s was warmer than the 1990 average.[15]

Regional temperature

1901–2011 global temperature trend
Global Land temperature anomaly 1880-2012
Global Ocean temperature anomaly 1880-2012

Temperature trends from 1901 are positive over most of the world's surface except for Atlantic Ocean south of Greenland, the southeastern United States, and parts of Bolivia. Warming is strongest over interior land area in Asia and North America as well as south-eastern Brazil and some area in the South Atlantic and Indian oceans.

Since 1979 temperatures increase is considerably stronger over land while cooling has been observed over some oceanic regions in the Pacific Ocean and Southern Hemisphere, the spatial pattern of ocean temperature trend in those regions is possibly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode.[40]

Seasonal temperature trends are positive over most of the globe but weak cooling is observed over the mid latitudes of the southern ocean but also over eastern Canada in spring due to strengthening of the North Atlantic Oscillation, warming is stronger over northern Europe, China and North America in winter, Europe and Asia interior in spring, Europe and north Africa in summer and northern North America, Greenland and Eastern Asia in autumn. Enhanced warming over north Eurasia is partly linked to the Northern Annular Mode,[41][42] while in the southern hemisphere the trend toward stronger westerlies over the southern ocean favoured a cooling over much of Antarctica with the exception of the Antarctic Peninsula where strong westerlies decrease cold air outbreak from the south.[43] The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed by 2.5 °C (4.5 °F) in the past five decades at Bellingshausen Station.[44]

Satellite Temperature records

Main article: Satellite temperature measurements

Comparison of ground based (blue) and satellite based (red: University of Alabama in Huntsville; green: RSS) records of global surface temperature change from 1979-2009. Linear trends plotted since 1982.

The most recent climate model simulations give a range of results for changes in global-average temperature. Some models show more warming in the troposphere than at the surface, while a slightly smaller number of simulations show the opposite behavior. There is no fundamental inconsistency among these model results and observations at the global scale.[45]

The satellite records used to show much smaller warming trends for the troposphere which were considered to disagree with model prediction, however following revisions to the satellite records, the trends are now similar.

The IPCC fifth assessment report concluded "assessment of the large body of studies comparing various long-term radiosonde and MSU products since AR4 is hampered by data set version changes, and inherent data uncertainties. These factors substantially limit the ability to draw robust and consistent inferences from such studies about the true long-term trends or the value of different data products".[46]

Evaluation

The U.S. National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program has established minimum standards regarding the instrumentation, siting, and reporting of surface temperature stations.[47] The observing systems available are able to detect year-to-year temperature variations such as those caused by El Niño or volcanic eruptions.[48]

The urban heat island effect is very small, estimated to account for less than 0.002 °C of warming per decade since 1900.[49]

Brooks investigated Historical Climate Network (USHCN) sites in Indiana in 2005, and assigned 16% of the sites an ‘excellent’ rating, 59% a ‘good’ rating, 12.5% a ‘fair’ rating, and 12.5% ‘poor’ rating.[50] A 2006 study analyzed 366 U.S. surface stations, results indicate relatively few significant temperature trends, and these are generally evenly divided between warming and cooling trends. 95% of the stations displayed a warming trend after land use/land cover changes took place, and the authors noted "this does not necessarily imply that the changes are the causative factor."[51] Another study that same year, documented examples of well and poorly sited monitoring stations in the United States, including ones near buildings, roadways, and air conditioning exhausts.[52]

Another study concluded in 2006, that existing empirical techniques for validating the local and regional consistency of temperature data are adequate to identify and remove biases from station records, and that such corrections allow information about long-term trends to be preserved.[53] A study in 2013, also found that urban bias can be accounted for, and when all available station data is divided into rural and urban, that both temperature sets are broadly consistent.[54]

Global surface and ocean datasets

Map of the land-based long-term monitoring stations included in the Global Historical Climatology Network. Colors indicate the length of the temperature record available at each site.
See also: Temperature measurement

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) maintains the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN-Monthly) data base contains historical temperature, precipitation, and pressure data for thousands of land stations worldwide.[55] Also, NOAA's National Climatic Data Center (NCDC).[56] of surface temperature measurements, maintains a global temperature record since 1880.[57]

HadCRUT, a collaboration between the University of East Anglia's Climatic Research Unit and the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research

NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies maintains GISTEMP.

More recently the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature dataset. These datasets are updated frequently, and are generally in close agreement.

See also

References

  1. ^ Brohan, P., J.J. Kennedy, I. Harris, S.F.B. Tett, P.D. Jones (2006). "Uncertainty estimates in regional and global observed temperature changes: a new dataset from 1850". J. Geophys. Res. 111: D12106. Bibcode:2006JGRD..11112106B. doi:10.1029/2005JD006548. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  2. ^ [WGI AR5 Full Report PDF, p.5 "Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis, IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (WGI AR5)"]. IPCC AR5. 2013. {{cite web}}: Check |url= value (help)
  3. ^ IPCC AR5 Chapter 2 page 193
  4. ^ Houghton(eds); et al. (2001). "Climate Change 2001: Working Group I: The Scientific Basis – Chapter 12: Detection of Climate Change and Attribution of Causes". IPCC. Retrieved 2007-07-13. {{cite web}}: |author= has generic name (help)
  5. ^ "Ch 6. Changes in the Climate System". Advancing the Science of Climate Change. 2010Template:Inconsistent citations {{cite book}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: postscript (link), in US NRC 2010, p. 207
  6. ^ Swanson, K.L.; Sugihara, G.; Tsonis, A.A. (22 September 2009). "Long-term natural variability and 20th century climate change". Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106 (38): 16120–3. Bibcode:2009PNAS..10616120S. doi:10.1073/pnas.0908699106. PMC 2752544. PMID 19805268.
  7. ^ IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 2 page 187 and page 192
  8. ^ IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 2 p193
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  12. ^ "Climate change: 2015 'shattered' global temperature record by wide margin". BBC. 20 January 2016.
  13. ^ Schmidt, Gavin (22 January 2015). "Thoughts on 2014 and ongoing temperature trends". RealClimate. Retrieved 4 September 2015.
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  15. ^ a b 1 Introduction (PDF). p. 5. In State of the Climate in 2009
  16. ^ Natural Climate Oscillations of Short Duration and the Long Term Climate Warming – Sorting Out the Climate System USGCRP Seminar, 20 March 2000 Updated 13 August, 2004
  17. ^ NASA Research Finds Last Decade was Warmest on Record, 2009 One of Warmest Years
  18. ^ IPCC AR5 WG1 SPM page 5
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  30. ^ see also: PBS (January 10, 2007). "Interviews - James Hansen: Hot Politics: FRONTLINE: PBS". PBSTemplate:Inconsistent citations {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help); Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: postscript (link). "(...) The 1990s is the real appearance of the science skeptics. How much did they come after you? I actually don't like the word "skeptics" for them; I think it's better to call them "contrarians," because skepticism is part of science; all scientists are skeptics (...)"
  31. ^ Ian Sample (2011-10-20). "Global warming study finds no grounds for climate sceptics' concerns". The Guardian. Retrieved 2011-10-22.
  32. ^ Richard Black (2011-10-21). "Global warming 'confirmed' by independent study". BBC News. Retrieved 2011-10-21.
  33. ^ "Climate change: The heat is on". The Economist. 2011-10-22. Retrieved 2011-10-22.
  34. ^ e.g., see Carter, B. (April 9, 2006). "There IS a problem with global warming... it stopped in 1998". The Daily Telegraph. Telegraph Media GroupTemplate:Inconsistent citations {{cite news}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: postscript (link)
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  38. ^ a b Edited quote from public-domain source: Scott, M. (December 31, 2009). "Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet, p.3". ClimateWatch Magazine. NOAA. Deciphering Natural VariabilityTemplate:Inconsistent citations {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  39. ^ Edited quote from public-domain source: Scott, M. (December 31, 2009). "Short-term Cooling on a Warming Planet, p.2". ClimateWatch Magazine. NOAA. Deciphering Natural VariabilityTemplate:Inconsistent citations {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)CS1 maint: postscript (link)
  40. ^ "IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Chapter 3" (PDF). 2007-02-05. pp. 250–1. Retrieved 2009-03-14.
  41. ^ Polyakov, I.V.; Bekryaev, R.V.; Bhatt, U.S.; Colony, R.L.; Maskshtas, A.P.; Walsh, D.; Bekryaev, R.V.; Alekseev, G.V. (2003). "Variability and trends of air temperature in the Maritime Arctic". J. Clim. 16 (12): 2067–77. Bibcode:2003JCli...16.2067P. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016<2067:VATOAT>2.0.CO;2. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)
  42. ^ Liu, J.P.; Curry, J.A.; Da, Y.J.; Horton, Radley (2007). "Causes of the northern high-latitude land surface winter climate change". Geophys. Res. Lett. 34 (14): L14702. Bibcode:2007GeoRL..3414702L. doi:10.1029/2007GL030196. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)
  43. ^ David W. J. Thompson; Susan Solomon (2002). "Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change" (PDF). Science. 296 (5569): 895–9. Bibcode:2002Sci...296..895T. doi:10.1126/science.1069270. PMID 11988571. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)
  44. ^ "Antarctic temperature data – Monthly mean surface temperature data and derived statistics for some Antarctic stations". British Antarctic Survey. Retrieved 2007-07-13.
  45. ^ Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere - Understanding and Reconciling Differences
  46. ^ IPCC 5AR WG1 Chapter 2 page 196
  47. ^ NOAA National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program: Proper Siting
  48. ^ Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. Thomas R. Karl, Susan J. Hassol, Christopher D. Miller, and William L. Murray, editors, 2006. A Report by the Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research, Washington, DC.
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  50. ^ Indiana State Climate Office
  51. ^ Hale, R.C.; Gallo, K.P.; Owen, T.W.; Loveland, T.R. (June 2006). "Land use/land cover change effects on temperature trends at U.S. Climate Normals stations". Geophys. Res. Lett. 33 (11): L11703. Bibcode:2006GeoRL..3311703H. doi:10.1029/2006GL026358.
  52. ^ Mahmood R, Foster SA, Logan D (2006). "The GeoProfile metadata, exposure of instruments, and measurement bias in climatic record revisited". International Journal of Climatology. 26 (8): 1091–1124. Bibcode:2006IJCli..26.1091M. doi:10.1002/joc.1298. {{cite journal}}: Invalid |ref=harv (help)
  53. ^ Peterson, Thomas C. (August 2006). "Examination of potential biases in air temperature caused by poor station locations" (PDF). Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 87 (8): 1073–89. doi:10.1175/BAMS-87-8-1073.
  54. ^ "Quantifying the effect of urbanization on U.S. Historical Climatology Network temperature records". Journal of Geophysical Research. 30 January 2013. doi:10.1029/2012JD018509. {{cite journal}}: Unknown parameter |authors= ignored (help)
  55. ^ "GHCN-Monthly Version 2". NOAA. Retrieved 2007-07-13.
  56. ^ NCDC State of the Climate Global Analysis, April 2010
  57. ^ "Global Surface Temperature Anomalies". National Climatic Data Center. Retrieved 2010-06-16.
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