Polish presidential election, 2015

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Polish presidential election, 2015

← 2010 10 May 2015 (first round)
24 May 2015 (second round)
2020 →
Turnout 48.96% (first round)
55.34% (second round)

  Andrzej Duda (9851867824) (cropped 2).jpg Rada Krajowa Platformy Obywatelskiej RP, Warszawa (6.02.2015) (15836909753) (cropped).jpg
Nominee Andrzej Duda Bronisław Komorowski
Party PiS Independent
Alliance PO
Popular vote 8,630,627 8,112,311
Percentage 51.5% 48.5%

President before election

Bronisław Komorowski
Independent

Elected President

Andrzej Duda
PiS

Presidential elections were held in Poland on 10 and 24 May 2015. In the first round of voting, opposition Law and Justice (PiS) candidate Andrzej Duda received the greatest number of votes with a share of 34.76%, followed by incumbent president Bronisław Komorowski (with 33.77%), who ran as an independent with the endorsement of the Civic Platform (PO),[1] which he had renounced his membership in after winning the 2010 elections. Independent candidate Paweł Kukiz came third with 20.80% of the votes. As no candidate had received more than 50% of the votes cast, a second round was held on 24 May between the two highest-placed candidates, Duda and Komorowski. This round was won by Duda with 51.5% of the votes, to Komorowski's 48.5%.

Electoral system[edit]

The president was elected directly by the people to serve for five years, and can be re-elected only once. Pursuant to the provisions of the Constitution, the president had to be elected by an absolute majority of valid votes; if no candidate succeeds in passing this threshold, a second round of voting is held with the two candidates who received the largest and second largest number of votes respectively.

In order to be registered to contest the elections, candidates had to be a Polish citizen, at least 35 years old on the day of the first round of the election, and have collected at least 100,000 voters' signatures.

According to the article 28, the day of the election had to fall on a Sunday between 100 and 75 days before the end of the term of the incumbent. As the term of Bronisław Komorowski would officially end on 6 August 2015, the first round had to occur between 27 April and 22 May, so that the possible dates were theoretically either 3, 10, or 17 May, though in practice only the latter two were realistic possibilities as the first fell on Constitution Day, a national holiday.[2]

This was the first presidential election carried out following changes in 2011.[3]

Candidates[edit]

In total 23 candidates registered with the State Electoral Commission.[4] Only 11 submitted the required 100,000 signatures supporting their candidacy before the 26 March deadline.:[5]

Rejected candidates[edit]

The registered candidates who failed to submit 100,000 signatures supporting their run for office were:

Among those who publicly announced their candidacy, but failed to register, were:

Campaign[edit]

Television debates[edit]

One debate took place before the first round, on 5 May, chaired by Krzysztof Ziemiec and aired on TVP 1.[21] Ten candidates attended the debate, while President Komorowski declined to appear.[22]

Two debates took place before the second round, the first chaired by Dorota Gawryluk and by Krzysztof Ziemiec on 17 May,[23] and the second on 21 May by TVN, chaired by Monika Olejnik, Bogdan Rymanowski and Justyna Pochanke. In both of these, the candidates also had the opportunity to pose questions to the other.[24] Komorowski was generally regarded by the Polish press and political analysts to have won the first of the second-round debates.[25] The second debate was considered to be less decisive.[26][27][28]

Opinion polls[edit]

Nearly all opinion polls taken before the first round of the election predicted President Komorowski would receive the largest vote share in the first round, with some polls taken in late 2014 and early 2015 suggesting he was on track for an outright win that would avoid a runoff election.[29][30]

Polls were closer in the second round, with most predicting a narrow Duda victory.[31] At least one late poll showed Komorowski pulling ahead, but just slightly.[32]

First round[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Undecided Others Lead
Komorowski
IN
Duda
PiS
Ogórek
SLD
Jarubas
PSL
Palikot
TR
Korwin-Mikke
KORWiN
Braun
IN
Grodzka
Greens
Kowalski
RN
Kukiz
IN
Wilk
KNP
Nowicka
UP
EXIT POLLS:
IPSOS
10 May 2015 - 32.2% 34.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.5% 4.4% 1.1% - 0.8% 20.3% 0.6% - 0.3% 2.6%
Election day (10 May)
IBRiS 8 May 2015 7.5% 39% 31% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 1% 19% 0% - 0% 8%
TNS Poland 6–7 May 2015 13% 35% 27% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - 0% 15% 0% - 0% 8%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 7 May 2015 3% 39% 27% 4% 2% 3% 5% 1% - 0% 13% 0% - 0% 12%
IBRiS 6 May 2015 5% 39.7% 29% 2.4% 3.2% 1.7% 4.2% 0.8% - 0.7% 14.3% 0% - 0.1% 10.7%
Pressmix 3 May 2015 5.1% 33.3% 33.3% 3.3% 1.8% 0.9% 6.6% 0.8% - 0.6% 13.7% 0.5% - 0.1% Tie
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 13 April 2015 7% 45% 28% 4% 2% 2% 6% - - - 6% - - - 17%
TNS Poland 7–8 April 2015 13% 46% 24% 3% 1% 2% 4% - - - 6% - - - 22%
Millward Brown 30 March 2015 9% 42% 26% 7% 2% 3% 6% - - 1% 4% - - - 16%
IBRiS 27–28 March 2015 11.1% 40.7% 26.6% 4.9% 5.1% 2.7% 4.8% 0.4% - 0.4% 3.3% 0% - - 14.1%
100,000 supporting signatures deadline (26 March)
TNS Poland[permanent dead link] 13–18 March 2015 21% 41% 24% 6% 2% 1% 2% - - - 2% - 1% - 17%
Millward Brown 16 March 2015 2% 46% 31% 4% 1% 4% 4% - 0% 1% 5% - 1% 1% 15%
PPW 9–15 March 2015 - 48% 30% 4% 2% 6% 4% - 1% 1% 2% 1% 0% 1% 18%
IBRiS[permanent dead link] 13 March 2015 12% 46% 26% 5% 4% 3% 3% - - - 1% - - - 20%
TNS Poland 10–11 March 2015 12% 45% 27% 5% 1% 1% 4% <1% 1% <1% 2% <1% 1% 1% 18%
CBOS 5–11 March 2015 18% 52% 19% 3% 1% 2% 1% - <0.5% <0.5% 2% - <0.5% 2% 33%
PPW 2–8 March 2015 - 48% 28% 3% 2% 7% 4% - 1% 1% 4% - 1% 1% 20%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 2 March 2015 2% 46% 27% 8% 3% 2% 4% - 1% 1% 4% - 0% 2% 19%
PPW 23-28 Feb 2015 - 50% 28% 4% 3% 5% 3% - 1% 1% 3% - 1% 1% 22%
Ipsos[permanent dead link] 25-26 Feb 2015 3.2% 49.7% 28% 5.7% 2% 1.4% 3.8% - - 0.7% 3.5% 0.3% - 0.5% 21.7%
PPW 16-22 Feb 2015 - 51% 25% 4% 3% 6% 2% - 1% 1% 5% - 1% 1% 26%
TNS Poland[permanent dead link] 13-18 Feb 2015 22% 47% 17% 6% 4% 1% 1% - 1% - 1% - - - 30%
Estymator[permanent dead link] 15-17 Feb 2015 - 51% 25% 8% 4% 2% 3% 0% 1% 0% 5% 0% - - 26%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 16 Feb 2015 5% 47% 24% 7% 2% 6% 3% 1% 0% 4% - - - 23%
GfK Polonia 12-16 Feb 2015 14% 52% 20% 4% 2% 2% 2% - - 3% - - - 32%
IBRiS 12-13 Feb 2015 9% 49% 26% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% <1% 3% <1% - - 23%
CBOS[permanent dead link] 5-11 Feb 2015 8% 63% 15% 3% 2% 1% 3% 1% - - - - 4% 48%
TNS Poland 4-5 Feb 2015 11% 53% 19% 5% 2% 2% 2% 1% 1% - - - 4%e 34%
IBRiS 3 Feb 2015 - 55% 25% 5% 1% 2% 4% - - - - - - 30%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 25 Jan 2015 4% 62% 18% 8% 1%a 2% 3% - 1% - - - - 44%
TNS Poland[permanent dead link] 16-21 Jan 2015 24% 52% 12% 5% - 2% 3% - 0% - - - - 40%
Ariadna 16-20 Jan 2015 - 48% 17% 7% 2% 7% 7% - 2% - - - 10%d 31%
GfK Polonia 15-18 Jan 2015 20% 55% 14% 4% - 2% 3% - - - - - - 41%
TNS Poland 12-13 Jan 2015 11% 56% 19% 6% 1% 2% 4% - - - - - 1% 37%
Millward Brown 12 Jan 2015 4% 65% 21% 6% - 1% 3% - - - - - - 44%
TNS Poland 10-11 Dec 2014 13% 56% 17% - - 2% 5% - - - - - 7%b 39%
IBRiS 4 Dec 2014 5% 55.6% 23.1% - - 1.3% 4.8% 0.7% - - - - - 11.5%c 32.5%
Notes

Second round[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Abstention Undecided
Komorowski
IN
Duda
PiS
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 20 May 2015 - 47% 45% 8%
Estymator 18 May 2015 - 48% 52% -
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 18 May 2015 - 47% 44% 9%
IBRiS 14 May 2015 - 43.2% 48% 6.9%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 14 May 2015 - 40% 44% 15%
Estymator[permanent dead link] 13–14 May 2015 - 46% 54% -
Election day (10 May)
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 7 May 2015 - 54% 41% 5%
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 13 April 2015 - 55% 40% 5%
Millward Brown 30 March 2015 - 52% 41% 7%
Millward Brown 16 March 2015 4% 53% 37% 6%
PPW 2–8 March 2015 - 62% 38% -
Millward Brown[permanent dead link] 16 Feb 2015 10% 59% 27% 4%
CBOS 5-11 Feb 2015 7% 65% 19% 9%

Results[edit]

Duda took a narrow first-place finish over Komorowski in the first round of the election on 10 May 2015, forcing the incumbent into a runoff. The result was described as a surprise, as the Komorowski camp and many political observers expected him to perform better or perhaps win outright.[29][31][33][34] Paweł Kukiz, who finished third in the first round of voting, declined to endorse either Duda or Komorowski, instead offering to moderate a debate between the two candidates.[35] Komorowski declined to participate, and the debate was never held.[36]

In the second round of the election on 24 May, Duda unseated Komorowski in the closest presidential election since Poland became a democracy.[37][38] He defeated the incumbent by a margin of approximately three percentage points, according to official results.[39]

Results of the first round by counties
Results of the second round by counties
Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Andrzej Duda Law and Justice 5,179,092 34.76 8,630,627 51.55
Bronisław Komorowski Independent 5,031,060 33.77 8,112,311 48.45
Paweł Kukiz Independent 3,099,079 20.80
Janusz Korwin-Mikke KORWiN 486,084 3.26
Magdalena Ogórek Independent 353,883 2.38
Adam Jarubas Polish People's Party 238,761 1.60
Janusz Palikot Your Movement 211,242 1.42
Grzegorz Braun Independent 124,132 0.83
Marian Kowalski National Movement 77,630 0.52
Jacek Wilk Congress of the New Right 68,186 0.46
Paweł Tanajno Direct Democracy 29,785 0.20
Invalid/blank votes 124,952 250,231
Total 15,023,886 100 16,993,169 100
Registered voters/turnout 30,688,570 48.96 30,709,281 55.34
Source: PKW, PKW

Reactions[edit]

Komorowski said after the release of the exit poll that it was important to respect the result of the vote.[37] He conceded defeat that evening and wished Duda "a successful presidency".[40]

Duda hailed his victory as a vote for change.[40] His campaign manager said the election showed that the Law and Justice bloc could win parliamentary elections scheduled for autumn,[41] something that the party achieved.

Many world leaders, including United States President Barack Obama,[42] German Chancellor Angela Merkel,[43] and Russian President Vladimir Putin,[44] congratulated Duda on his victory.

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Platforma "murem" za Bronisławem Komorowskim. Premier Kopacz apeluje: Polacy, wybierzcie właściwie" [Civic Platform fully supports Bronisław Komorowski. Premier Kopacz appeals: Poles, make the right choice]. Polskie Radio. 2015-02-06. Retrieved 2015-07-13. 
  2. ^ "Termin wyborów prezydenckich w 2015 roku". 
  3. ^ "Sejm RP uchwalił Kodeks wyborczy zawierający propozycje ISP". Instytut Spraw Publicznych. Retrieved 26 May 2015. 
  4. ^ a b "Wykaz złożonych zawiadomień o utworzeniu komitetu wyborczego w związku z wyborami Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej". Retrieved 17 March 2015. 
  5. ^ "Wykaz kandydatów". Wybory Prezydenta Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej 2015. Państwowa Komisja Wyborcza. Retrieved 27 March 2015. 
  6. ^ a b "Wybory prezydenckie 2015: PKW zarejestrowała 23 komitety wyborcze kandydatów na prezydenta. Jakie?". Portal Samorządowy. 
  7. ^ Poland's first transsexual and gay MPs take seats in parliament The Guardian, 8 November 2011
  8. ^ "Anna Grodzka dla WP: tak, będę kandydować na prezydenta". wp.pl. Wirtualna Polska. 
  9. ^ "Kolejne zgłoszenie komitetu kandydata na prezydenta". onet.pl. Onet. Retrieved 11 March 2015. 
  10. ^ "PKW zarejestrowała już 16 komitetów kandydatów na prezydenta". onet.pl. Onet. Retrieved 2 March 2015. 
  11. ^ "PKW zarejestrowała kolejne trzy komitety wyborcze". wp.pl. Wirtualna Polska. Retrieved 27 February 2015. 
  12. ^ "Kazaszka Balli Marzec chce być prezydentem". rp.pl. Rzeczpospolita. Retrieved 28 February 2015. 
  13. ^ "Kornel Morawiecki - kandydat na prezydenta". radiownet.pl. Radio Wnet. Retrieved 18 February 2015. 
  14. ^ "Świnoujścianin Zenon Nowak kandydatem na prezydenta". iswinoujscie.pl. iŚwinoujście.pl. Retrieved 28 February 2015. 
  15. ^ "Wanda Nowicka też wystartuje w wyborach prezydenckich". polskieradio.pl. Polskie Radio. Retrieved 22 February 2015. 
  16. ^ "Kolejne "wzmocnienie" lewej strony. Iwona Piątek z Partii Kobiet kandydatką na prezydenta". natemat.pl. natemat.pl. Retrieved 27 February 2015. 
  17. ^ "Wybory prezydenckie/ PKW zarejestrowała dwa kolejne komitety: Grodzkiej i Słomki". radiopik.pl. Polskie Radio PiK. Retrieved 25 February 2015. 
  18. ^ "Waldemar Deska, kandydat na prezydenta: Popierają mnie tysiące pokrzywdzonych przez fiskusa. To kula śniegowa". natemat.pl. natemat.pl. 
  19. ^ "Wybory prezydenckie 2015. Waldemar Deska udzielił poparcia Januszowi Korwin-Mikkemu". polskatimes.pl. PolskaTimes.pl. Retrieved 17 March 2015. 
  20. ^ "Włodzimierz Zydorczak kandydatem na prezydenta RP". tvn24.pl. TVN24. Retrieved 28 February 2015. 
  21. ^ "Krzysztof Ziemiec poprowadzi debatę dziesięciu kandydatów" (in Polish). Press. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  22. ^ "Candidates debate on TV prior to presidential elections". Radio Poland. 5 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  23. ^ "Starcie kandydatów na prezydenta w debacie wyborczej" (in Polish). Blasting News. 18 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  24. ^ Skolimowski, Piotr (20 May 2015). "Polish Ballot Too Close to Call as Presidential Debate Looms". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  25. ^ Skolimowski, Piotr (17 May 2015). "Polish President Revives Election Campaign With Debate Win". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  26. ^ "Duda and Komorowski participate in TV debate". Radio Poland. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  27. ^ "Polish president, challenger face off in last debate". The Washington Post. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  28. ^ Skolimowski, Piotr (21 May 2015). "No Knockout in Polish Presidential Debate as Election Nears". Bloomberg. Retrieved 29 May 2015. 
  29. ^ a b Cienski, Jan (10 May 2015). "A Polish stunner". POLITICO. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  30. ^ "Poland election: President Komorowski loses to rival Duda". BBC News. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  31. ^ a b "Komorowski vs. Duda in unpredictable Poland runoff poll". Deutsche Welle. 24 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  32. ^ "Poland's President Komorowski narrowly leads in poll ahead of run-off". Reuters. 22 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  33. ^ "Polish president suffers shock reverse in first round vote: exit poll". Reuters. 10 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  34. ^ "Poles Hand President Komorowski Shock Defeat in First-Round". Bloomberg. 10 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  35. ^ "Kukiz invites Komorowski, Duda, for presidential debate". Radio Poland. 13 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  36. ^ "Kukiz-led presidential debate cancelled". Radio Poland. 21 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  37. ^ a b "Andrzej Duda wins Poland's presidential election – late poll results". The Warsaw Voice. 24 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  38. ^ "Andrzej Duda wins Poland's presidential election". EHO. 26 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  39. ^ "Conservative Duda wins Poland's presidential vote". Al Jazeera. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  40. ^ a b "Poland election: Komorowski concedes defeat to Duda". Dnevi avaz. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  41. ^ Krafczyk, Eva (25 May 2015). "Polish right-wing party eyes fall elections after Duda's victory". dpa. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  42. ^ "White House congratulates President-elect Duda". Radio Poland. 26 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  43. ^ "Kanclerz Angela Merkel, prezydent Niemiec i szef PE gratulują Andrzejowi Dudzie". PolskieRadio.pl (in Polish). 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 
  44. ^ "Vladimir Putin Wants 'Constructive' Poland Ties After Duda Presidential Win". NDTV. 25 May 2015. Retrieved 28 May 2015. 

External links[edit]