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Frequently asked questions

To view an answer, click the [show] link to the right of the question. To view references used by an answer, you must also click the [show] for references at the bottom of the FAQ.

Q1: Is there really a scientific consensus on climate change?

A1: Yes. The IPCC findings of recent warming as a result of human influence are explicitly recognized as the "consensus" scientific view by the science academies of all the major industrialized countries. No scientific body of national or international standing presently rejects the basic findings of human influence on recent climate. This scientific consensus is supported by over 99% of publishing climate scientists.^[1]

Q2: How can we say climate change is real when it's been so cold in such-and-such a place?

A2: This is why it is termed "global warming", not "(such-and-such a place) warming". Even then, what rises is the average temperature over time – that is, the temperature will fluctuate up and down within the overall rising trend. To give an idea of the relevant time scales, the standard averaging period specified by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) is 30 years. Accordingly, the WMO defines climate change as "a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer)."^[2]

Q3: Can't the increase of CO₂ be from natural sources, like volcanoes or the oceans?

A3: While these claims are popular among global warming skeptics,^[3]^[4] including academically trained ones,^[5]^[6] they are incorrect. This is known from any of several perspectives:

Current human emissions of CO₂ are at least 100 times larger than volcanic emissions. Measurements of CO₂ levels over the past 50 years do not show any significant rises after eruptions.^[7] This is easily seen in a graph of CO₂ concentrations over the past 50 years: the strongest eruption during the period, that of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, produced no increase in the trend.
Isotopic analysis of atmospheric carbon dioxide shows the observed change in the ratio of carbon isotopes reflects the isotopic ratios in fossil fuels.^[8]
Atmospheric oxygen content is decreasing at a rate that agrees with the amount of oxygen being used to burn fossil fuels.^[9]
If the oceans were giving up some of their carbon dioxide, their carbon dioxide concentration would have to decrease. But instead we are measuring an increase in the oceans' carbon dioxide concentration, resulting in the oceans becoming more acidic (or in other words, less basic).^[10]

Q4: I think the article is missing some things, or has some things wrong. Can I change it?

A4: Yes. Keep in mind that your points need to be based on documented evidence from the peer-reviewed literature, or other information that meets standards of verifiability, reliability, and no original research. If you do not have such evidence, more experienced editors may be able to help you find it (or confirm that such evidence does not exist). You are welcome to make such queries on the article's talk page but please keep in mind that the talk page is for discussing improvements to the article, not discussing the topic. There are many forums that welcome general discussions of global warming, but the article talk page is not such a forum.

Q5: Why haven't the graphs been updated?

A5: Two reasons:

There are many images used in the articles related to global warming, and there are many reasons why they may not be updated with the latest data. Some of the figures, like the Global Warming Map, are static, meaning that they are intended to show a particular phenomenon and are not meant to be updated frequently or at all. Others, like the Instrumental Temperature Record and Northern Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent Anomalies, use yearly data and thus are updated once per year—usually in mid- to late-January, depending upon when the data is publicly released, and when a volunteer creates the image. Still others, like Mauna Loa Carbon Dioxide, use monthly data. These are updated semi-regularly.
However, just because an image is 6 months or a year old does not mean it is useless. Robert A. Heinlein is credited with saying, "Climate is what you expect, weather is what you get", meaning that climate is defined as a long-term average of weather, usually about 30 years. This length was chosen to eliminate the year-to-year variations.^[11] Thus, in terms of climate change, any given year's data is of little import.

Q6: Isn't climate change "just a theory"?

A6: People who say this are abusing the word "theory" by conflating its common meaning with its scientific meaning. In common usage, "theory" can mean a hunch or guess, but a scientific theory, roughly speaking, means a coherent set of explanations that is compatible with observations and that allows predictions to be made. That the temperature is rising is an observation. An explanation for this (also known as a hypothesis) is that the warming is primarily driven by greenhouse gases (such as CO₂ and methane) released into the atmosphere by human activity. Scientific models have been built that predict the rise in temperature and these predictions have matched observations. When scientists gain confidence in a hypothesis because it matches observation and has survived intense scrutiny, the hypothesis may be called a "theory". Strictly speaking, scientific theories are never proven, but the degree of confidence in a theory can be discussed. The scientific models now suggest that it is "extremely likely" (>95%) to "virtually certain" (>99%) that the increases in temperature have been caused by human activity as discussed in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. Global warming via greenhouse gases by human activity is a theory (in the scientific sense), but it is most definitely not just a hunch or guess.

Q7: Does methane cause more warming than CO₂?

A7: It's true that methane is more potent molecule for molecule. But there's far less of it in the atmosphere, so the total effect is smaller. The atmospheric lifetime of methane (about 10 years) is a lot shorter than that of CO₂ (hundreds to thousands of years), so when methane emissions are reduced the concentration in the atmosphere soon falls, whereas CO₂ accumulates in the atmosphere over long periods. For details see the greenhouse gas and global warming potential articles.

Q8: How can you say there's a consensus when lists of "skeptical scientists" have been compiled?

A8: Consensus is not the same as unanimity, the latter of which is impractical for large groups. Over 99% of publishing climate scientists agree on anthropogenic climate change.^[1] This is an extremely high percentage well past any reasonable threshold for consensus. Any list of "skeptical scientists" would be dwarfed by a comparably compiled list of scientists accepting anthropogenic climate change.

Q9: Did climate change end in 1998?

A9: One of the strongest El Niño events in the instrumental record occurred during late 1997 through 1998, causing a spike in global temperature for 1998. Through the mid-late 2000s this abnormally warm year could be chosen as the starting point for comparisons with later years in order to produce a cooling trend; choosing any other year in the 20th century produced a warming trend. This no longer holds since the mean global temperatures in 2005, 2010, 2014, 2015 and 2016 have all been warmer than 1998.^[12] More importantly, scientists do not define a "trend" by looking at the difference between two given years. Instead they use methods such as linear regression that take into account all the values in a series of data. The World Meteorological Organisation specifies 30 years as the standard averaging period for climate statistics so that year-to-year fluctuations are averaged out;^[2] thus, 10 years isn't long enough to detect a climate trend.

Q10: Wasn't Greenland much warmer during the period of Norse settlement?

A10: Some people assume this because of the island's name. In fact the Saga of Erik the Red tells us Erik named the new colony Greenland because "men will desire much the more to go there if the land has a good name."^[13] Advertising hype was alive and well in 985 AD.

While much of Greenland was and remains under a large ice sheet, the areas of Greenland that were settled by the Norse were coastal areas with fjords that, to this day, remain quite green. You can see the following images for reference:

A map of the Eastern Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A map of the Western Settlement
A satellite image of that area today
A zoom in on the general area where the Brattahlíð (Erik the Red's farm) and Garðar farms were located

Q11: Are the IPCC reports prepared by biased UN scientists?

A11: The IPCC reports are not produced by "UN scientists". The IPCC does not employ the scientists who generate the reports, and it has no control over them. The scientists are internationally recognized experts, most with a long history of successful research in the field. They are employed by various organizations including scientific research institutes, agencies like NASA and NOAA, and universities. They receive no extra pay for their participation in the IPCC process, which is considered a normal part of their academic duties.

Q12: Hasn't global sea ice increased over the last 30 years?

A12: Measurements show that it has not.^[14] Claims that global sea ice amounts have stayed the same or increased are a result of cherry picking two data points to compare, while ignoring the real (strongly statistically significant) downward trend in measurements of global sea ice amounts.

Arctic sea ice cover is declining strongly; Antarctic sea ice cover has had some much smaller increases, though it may or may not be thinning, and the Southern Ocean is warming. The net global ice-cover trend is clearly downwards.

Q13: Weren't scientists telling us in the 1970s that the Earth was cooling instead of warming?

A13: They weren't – see the article on global cooling. An article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society has reviewed the scientific literature at that time and found that even during the 1970s the prevailing scientific concern was over warming.^[15] The common misperception that cooling was the main concern during the 1970s arose from a few studies that were sensationalized in the popular press, such as a short nine-paragraph article that appeared in Newsweek in 1975.^[16] (Newsweek eventually apologized for having misrepresented the state of the science in the 1970s.)^[17] The author of that article has repudiated the idea that it should be used to deny global warming.^[18]

Q14: Doesn't water vapour cause 98% of the greenhouse effect?

A14: Water vapour is indeed a major greenhouse gas, contributing about 36% to 70% (not 98%) of the total greenhouse effect. But water vapour has a very short atmospheric lifetime (about 10 days), compared with decades to centuries for greenhouse gases like CO₂ or nitrous oxide. As a result it is very nearly in a dynamic equilibrium in the atmosphere, which globally maintains a nearly constant relative humidity. In simpler terms, any excess water vapour is removed by rainfall, and any deficit of water vapour is replenished by evaporation from the Earth's surface, which literally has oceans of water. Thus water vapour cannot act as a driver of climate change.

Rising temperatures caused by the long-lived greenhouse gases will however allow the atmosphere to hold more vapour. This will lead to an increase in the absolute amount of water vapour in the atmosphere. Since water vapour is itself a greenhouse gas, this is an example of a positive feedback. Thus, whereas water vapour is not a driver of climate change, it amplifies existing trends.

Q15: Is the fact that other solar system bodies are warming evidence for a common cause (i.e. the sun)?

A15: While some solar system bodies show evidence of local or global climate change, there is no evidence for a common cause of warming.

A 2007 National Geographic article described the views of Khabibullo Abdusamatov, who claims that the sun is responsible for global warming on both Earth and Mars.^[19] Abdussamatov's views have no support in the scientific community, as the second page of the National Geographic article makes clear: "'His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion,' said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University. [...] Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that 'the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations.'"^[20]
There is no reliable source claiming that Jupiter is warming. However, observations of the Red Spot Jr. storm suggest Jupiter could be in a period of global climate change.^[21]^[22] This is hypothesized to be part of an approximately 70 year global climate cycle, characterized by the relatively rapid forming and subsequent slow erosion and merging of cyclonic and anticyclonic vortices that help transfer heat between Jupiter's poles and equator. The cycle works like this: As the vortices erode, heat exchange is reduced; this makes the poles cool down and the equatorial region heat up; the resulting temperature difference destabilizes the atmosphere, leading to the creation of new vortices.^[23]^[24]
Pluto has an extremely elliptical orbit with a period of about 248 years. Data are sparse, but two data points from 1988 and 2002 indirectly suggest that Pluto warmed between those two dates.^[25] Pluto's temperature is heavily influenced by its elliptical orbit – it was closest to the sun in 1989 and has slowly receded since. Because of thermal inertia, it is expected to warm for a while after it passes perihelion (similar to how a sunny day's warmest temperatures happen during the afternoon instead of right at noon). No other mechanism has so far been seriously suggested. Here is a reasonable summary, and this paper discusses how the thermal inertia is provided by sublimation and evaporation of parts of Pluto's atmosphere. A more popular account is here and in Wikipedia's own article.

Q16: Do scientists support climate change just to get more money?

A16: No,

Scientists participate in international organizations like the IPCC as part of their normal academic duties. They do not receive any extra compensation beyond possibly for direct expenses.
Scientific grants do not usually award any money to a scientist personally, only towards the cost of his or her scientific work.
There is not a shortage of useful things that scientists could study if they were not studying global warming.
- Understanding our climate system better brings benefits independent of global warming. For instance, more accurate weather predictions save a lot of money (on the order of billions of dollars a year), and everyone from insurance agents to farmers wants climate data.^[26]^[27] Scientists could get paid to study climate even if global warming did not exist.

Q17: Doesn't the climate vary even without human activity?

A17: It does, but the fact that natural variation occurs does not mean that human-induced change cannot also occur. Climate scientists have extensively studied natural causes of climate change (such as orbital changes, volcanism, and solar variation) and have ruled them out as an explanation for the current temperature increase. Human activity is the cause at the 95 to 99 percent confidence level (see the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report for details). The high level of certainty in this is important to keep in mind to spot mention of natural variation functioning as a distraction.

Q18: Should we include the view that climate change will lead to planetary doom or catastrophe?

A18: This page is about the science of climate change. It doesn't talk about planetary doom or catastrophe. For a technical explanation, see catastrophic climate change, and for paleoclimatic examples see PETM and great dying.

Q19: Is an increase in global temperature of, say, 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) important?

A19: Though it may not sound like much, a global temperature rise of 3 degrees Celsius (5.4 degrees Fahrenheit) is huge in climate terms. For example, the sea level rise it would produce would flood coastal cities around the world, which include most large cities.

Earth's climate has varied significantly over geological ages. The question of an "optimal temperature" makes no sense without a clear optimality criterion. Over geological time spans, ecosystems adapt to climate variations. But global climate variations during the development of human civilization (i.e. the past 12,000 years) have been remarkably small. Human civilization is highly adapted to the current stable climate. Agricultural production depends on the proper combination of soil, climate, methods, and seeds. Most large cities are located on the coast, and any significant change in sea level would strongly affect them. Migration of humans and ecosystems is limited by political borders and existing land use. In short, the main problem is not the higher absolute temperature but the massive and unprecedentedly fast change in climate and the related effects on human societies. The IPCC AR6 WG2 report has a detailed discussion of the effects of rapid climate change.

Q20: Why are certain proposals to change the article discarded, deleted, or ignored? Who is/was Scibaby?

A20: Scibaby is/was a long term abusive sock-master (or coordinated group of sock masters) who has created 1,027 confirmed sock puppets, another 167 suspected socks, and probably many untagged or unrecognized ones. This page lists some recent creations. His modus operandi has changed over time, but includes proposing reasonably worded additions on the talk page that only on close examination turn out to be irrelevant, misinterpreted, or give undue weight to certain aspects. Scibaby is banned, and Scibaby socks are blocked as soon as they are identified. Some editors silently revert his additions, per WP:DENY, while others still assume good faith even for likely socks and engage them.

Q21: What about this really interesting recent peer-reviewed paper I read or read about, that says...?

A21: There are hundreds of peer-reviewed papers published every month in respected scientific journals such as Geophysical Research Letters, the Journal of Climate, and others. We can't include all of them, but the article does include references to individual papers where there is consensus that they best represent the state of the relevant science. This is in accordance with the "due weight" principle (WP:WEIGHT) of the Neutral point of view policy and the "Wikipedia is not an indiscriminate collection of information" principle (WP:IINFO) of the What Wikipedia is not policy.

Q22: Why does the article define "climate change" as a recent phenomenon? Hasn't the planet warmed and cooled before?

A22: Yes, the planet has warmed and cooled before. However, the term "climate change" without further qualification is widely understood to refer to the recent episode and often explicitly connected with the greenhouse effect. Per WP:COMMONNAME, we use the term in this most common meaning. The article Climate variability and change deals with the more general concept.

Q23: Did the CERN CLOUD experiment prove that climate change is caused not by human activity but by cosmic rays?

A23: No. For cosmic rays to be causing global warming, all of the following would have to be true, whereas only the italicized one was tested in the 2011 experiment:^[28]

Solar magnetic field must be getting stronger
The number of cosmic rays reaching Earth must be dropping
Cosmic rays must successfully seed clouds, which requires:

Cosmic rays must trigger aerosol (liquid droplet) formation,
These newly-formed aerosols must grow sufficiently through condensation to form cloud-condensation nuclei (CCN),
The CCN must lead to increased cloud formation, and
Cloud cover on Earth must be declining.

Perhaps the study's lead author, Jasper Kirkby, put it best: "...it [the experiment] actually says nothing about a possible cosmic-ray effect on clouds and climate, but it's a very important first step."^[29]

Q24: I read that something can't fix climate change. Is this true?

A24: Yes, this is true for all plausible single things including: "electric cars", "planting trees", "low-carbon technology", "renewable energy", "Australia", "capitalism", "the doom & gloom approach", "a Ph.D. in thermodynamics". Note that it is problematic to use the word "fix" regarding climate change, as returning the climate to its pre-industrial state currently appears to be feasible only over a timeframe of thousands of years. Current efforts are instead aimed at mitigating (meaning limiting) climate change. Mitigation is strived for through the combination of many different things. See Climate change mitigation for details.

References

^ ^a ^b Powell, James (20 November 2019). "Scientists Reach 100% Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming". Bulletin of Science, Technology & Society. 37 (4): 183–184. doi:10.1177/0270467619886266. S2CID 213454806. Retrieved 15 November 2020.
^ ^a ^b "Commission for Climatology Frequently Asked Questions". World Meteorological Organization. Archived from the original on 5 May 2020. Retrieved 14 July 2020.
^ Harris, Tom. "Scientists who work in the fields liberal arts graduate Al Gore wanders through contradict his theories about man-induced climate change". National Post. Archived from the original on 30 August 2011. Retrieved 11 January 2009 – via Solid Waste & Recycling. {{cite web}}: |archive-date= / |archive-url= timestamp mismatch; 4 February 2012 suggested (help)
^ Arriola, Benj. "5 Good Arguments Why GlobalWarming is NOT due to Man-made Carbon Dioxide". Global Warming Awareness Blog. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Ahlbeck, Jarl. "Increase of the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Concentration due to Ocean Warming". Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Kirby, Simon (11 April 2007). "Top scientist debunks global warming". Herald Sun. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ Brahic, Catherine (16 May 2007). "Climate myths: Human CO2 emissions are too tiny to matter". New Scientist. Retrieved 11 January 2009.
^ "More Notes on Global Warming". Physics Today. May 2005. Retrieved 10 September 2007.
^ Battle, M.; et al. (2000). "Global Carbon Sinks and Their Variability Inferred from Atmospheric O2 and d13C". Science. 287 (5462): 2467–2470. doi:10.1126/science.287.5462.2467.
^ The Royal Society (2005). "Ocean acidification due to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide". Retrieved 9 May 2012.
^ "Met Office: Climate averages". Met Office. Archived from the original on 24 February 2009. Retrieved 23 January 2009.
^ Climate Central (18 January 2017). "2016 Was the Hottest Year on Record". Climate Central. Retrieved 1 February 2017.
^ The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.
^ "Cold Hard Facts". Tamino. 8 January 2009. Retrieved 21 January 2009.^{[dead link]}
^ Peterson, T. C.; et al. (2008). "The Myth of the 1970s Global Cooling Scientific Consensus". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 89 (9): 1325. Bibcode:2008BAMS...89.1325P. doi:10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1.
^ Gwynne, Peter (28 April 1975). "The Cooling World". Newsweek. p. 64.
^ Verger, Rob (23 May 2014). "Newsweek Rewind: Debunking Global Cooling". Newsweek.
^ Gwynne, Peter (21 May 2014). "My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong". insidescience.org.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Ravilious, Kate (28 February 2007). "Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says (page 2)". National Geographic News. Archived from the original on 2 March 2007. Retrieved 6 March 2008.
^ Marcus, Philip; Shetty, Sushil; Asay-Davis, Xylar (November 2006). Velocities and Temperatures of Jupiter's Great Red Spot and the New Red Oval and Implications for Global Climate Change. American Physical Society. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Goudarzi, Sara (4 May 2006). "New Storm on Jupiter Hints at Climate Change". Space.com. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Philip, Marcus S. (22 April 2004). "Prediction of a global climate change on Jupiter" (PDF). Nature. 428 (6985): 828–831. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Yang, Sarah (21 April 2004). "Researcher predicts global climate change on Jupiter as giant planet's spots disappear". University of California, Berkeley. Retrieved 9 May 2007.
^ Elliot, J. L.; et al. (10 July 2003). "The recent expansion of Pluto's atmosphere". Nature (424): 165–168. doi:10.1038/nature01762.{{cite journal}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
^ Foerster, Jim. "What's The Difference Between Private Weather Companies And The National Weather Service?". Forbes.
^ Eilts, Mike (27 November 2018). "The Role of Weather—and Weather Forecasting—in Agriculture". DTN.
^ "What do the CERN experiments tell us about global warming?". Skeptical Science. 2 September 2011.
^ Brumfiel, Geoff (23 August 2011). "Cloud Formation May Be Linked to Cosmic Rays". Scientific American.

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Global Warming Graphs

Should we really have this many Hockey-stick graphs on the page? Skeptics might catch on to our plan to skew the data based on old errors.--EchoRevamped (talk) 06:32, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I had added a more recent graph from Satellite temperature measurements (File:Satellite Temperatures.png) to the graphs on this page. It is not currently supportive of the premise of global warming. It is however accurate and more recent than the graphs currently displayed. The current graph is 10 years out of date. The data on this page is stale. I will add the graph again unless I hear of any valid objections.Veteran0101 (talk) 04:18, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for attempting to update this graph, but I am not sure where it is...did you add the updated version? Can we have one with actual error bars on it? Subsumee (talk) 04:27, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Check out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Satellite_Temperatures.png . It is already linked to the following pages.

   * Satellite temperature measurements
   * Leipzig Declaration
   * Talk:Global warming
   * Temperature record
   * User:Dragons flight/Images
   * Friends of Science
   * Talk:List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming/Archive 7
   * List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming

Veteran0101 (talk) 05:23, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Are those lines linear least square fits to the individual data sets? If so, is there an accompanying R-squared "goodness-of-fit" value for each? Thank you. 72.57.184.21 (talk) 21:03, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

See Satellite temperature measurements for a further explanation. Veteran0101 (talk) 01:14, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

What "current graph" was 10 years out of date? As far as i can see, they are (and were) all pretty up2date. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 01:56, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Mojib Latif, member of IPCC, Earth is cooling

This German scientific advise about the next cooling phase of the climate in the world, based on the North Atlantic Oscillation

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17742-worlds-climate-could-cool-first-warm-later.html?DCMP=OTC-rss&nsref=online-news

Breaking with climate-change orthodoxy, he said NAO cycles were probably responsible for some of the strong global warming seen in the past three decades. "But how much? The jury is still out," he told the conference. The NAO is now moving into a colder phase.

Latif said NAO cycles also explained the recent recovery of the Sahel region of Africa from the droughts of the 1970s and 1980s. James Murphy, head of climate prediction at the Met Office, agreed and linked the NAO to Indian monsoons, Atlantic hurricanes and sea ice in the Arctic. "The oceans are key to decadal natural variability," he said.''

--Bentaguayre (talk) 18:12, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Vair exciting. I'm missing the bit about cooling that you put in your headline, though William M. Connolley (talk) 18:20, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Doesn't the cooling, or slowing, of the NAO simply mean less heat transfer from the equator to the North Atlantic, and isn't that a concept that's been around for a number of years?--CurtisSwain (talk) 19:28, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Assuming NS hasn't totally garbled this, then the NAO stuff leads to a global change in temperature, which would presumably involve some intereaction with the ocean. But the idea that there is natural variability on top of the long-term warming trend is nothing new William M. Connolley (talk) 19:47, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The guy two doors down the hall went to the Geneva conference. I haven't spoken to him yet (it's a holiday here in the Land of the Free) but it will be interesting to compare his impressions with the NS report. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 20:25, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Hello William, in the same article

Latif predicted that in the next few years a natural cooling trend would dominate over warming caused by humans. The cooling would be down to cyclical changes to ocean currents and temperatures in the North Atlantic, a feature known as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Yes guys, this has been pointed in the past. The question is, Latif, a man of the IPCC, now agree: 1. The warming has been caused too by natural proccess, 2. The natural forces are stronger than human influence, and tend to cool the planet in spite of the human activity.

This point of view is certainly new in a IPCC's man, and certainly can be a powerful hit to the hypothesis of a global warming based mostly in the human activity.

--Bentaguayre (talk) 22:56, 7 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You're misinterpreting the source. He's not saying that humans don't have influence or that their influence is unimportant; he's saying that short-term natural changes may temporarily cool the planet in spite of human influence. There's a huge difference. — DroEsperanto (talk) 00:12, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Bentaguayre did not misinterpret Latif nor did he say that 'humans don't have influence or that their influence is unimportant'. In your apparent over-eagerness to defend the AGW position you have misinterpreted Bentaguayre.Dikstr (talk) 16:24, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Actually what he says is clearly that "the jury is still out" on the relative weights of the different inputs. Arker (talk) 02:21, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The main points of Latif talk about two things:

1. Warming phase: "the jury is still out", that mean he agree about more influences in the warming than the human ones, obviously he show doubts about the predominance of human activity in the proccess. 2. Cooling phase: yes, with your words "short-term natural changes may temporarily cool the planet in spite of human influence."

--Bentaguayre (talk) 08:48, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You've now added the bit about cooling. Well done. It doesn't matter though, since NS isn't much use as a source. No, I don't trust it to quote anyone accurately (cue usual complaints). FWIW, this (I think) is a reference to the "recent" (about 6 months ago) study in which AWI ran a poor model and got poor answers; can't find the ref - anyone remember? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:52, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

(e/c)Sorry - but no. Short term climate variations can and will at times overwhelm long term changes, thats basic, the immediately known phenomena are El Niño/La Niña's. This doesn't in any way or form influence whether or not anthropogenic changes are dominant or not. And Latif agrees completely on this. Here's a nice german interview with Latif on the same study. [1]. To state that Latif "how doubts about the predominance of human activity" is wrong plain and simple. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:56, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Nice quote from Latif: „Die globale Temperatur wird trotz der kurzen Atempause bis 2100 deutlich höher sein als zu Beginn des letzten Jahrhunderts“ (trans: Global temperatures will, despite a short breather, by 2100 be significantly higher than the beginning of the last century). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:02, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Found it, thanks to a secret admirer. This is the Keenlyside pap. [2], [3], [4]. They wimped out, of course. Maybe some of our local septics would care to step up to the plate? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:45, 8 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

in the German lemmata, any characterisation of Latif as Mainstream is now already reverted as NPOV ;) Doubts about the predominance of human activity in the prediction and in the past 30y years are clearly expressed by Latifs geneva speech. Btw: I found it quite interesting that there might be other reasons for changes in local oscillation (somewhat has to start them, right?)
Vieira, L. E. A., and L. A. da Silva (2006), Geomagnetic modulation of clouds effects in the Southern Hemisphere Magnetic Anomaly through lower atmosphere cosmic ray effects, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L14802, doi:10.1029/2006GL026389. Zhang, M., and * H. Song (2006), Evidence of deceleration of atmospheric vertical overturning circulation over the tropical Pacific, Geophys. Res. Lett., 33, L12701, 18
Ken Carslaw Atmospheric physics: Cosmic rays, clouds and climate Nature 460, 332-333 (16 July 2009) | doi:10.1038/460332a; Published online 15 July 2009 --Polentario (talk) 20:11, 9 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Oh I loved this comment: '"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year," said Vicky Pope from the UK Met Office.' This clearly shows that they are still using schoolboy statistics and have no idea that long term noise will be larger in scale than short term variations. 79.79.246.21 (talk) 23:08, 9 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

"In candid mood, climate scientists avoided blaming nature for their faltering predictions, however. "Model biases are also still a serious problem. We have a long way to go to get them right. They are hurting our forecasts," said Tim Stockdale of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, UK." - does that mean they have finally realised that people like the Met Office might say they can predict the climate but 100% of those predictions have been high. That's about as probable as tossing a coin heads all the time! 79.79.246.21 (talk) 23:12, 9 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

"In many ways we know more about what will happen in the 2050s than next year," sounds fairly standard stuff. I'd ask you why you object to it but I know you won't ahve a reply and this will just degenerate into the usual chit-chat William M. Connolley (talk) 17:12, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Latif has already published his point several times but not with the big noise around it. http://www.ifm-geomar.de/index.php?id=1183&L=1#11038, interview wise he was always a big contender of mainstream http://www.sonnenseite.com/Interviews,Mojib+Latif-+Climate+change+has+to+have+top+political+priority,74,a7484.html (the interview is on Franz Alts web page, a christian conservative solar industry lobbyist and was printed in Enercons customer journal, Germanys leading producer of wind energy plants, honni soit qui mal y pense). Basically, Latif is practically very much on Pielkes side concerning the importance of local risk studies (compare the Kiel model) but never before came so clearly that sceptics might be right for the next decades. BR --Polentario (talk) 18:42, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Latif is completely mainstream on the standard climatology regarding global warming, which you will easily find out if you read any of his books on the subject. That he has a distinctive stand on the NAO and temperature predictions over the next 10 years is something else. Nils Simon (talk) 15:30, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Rainfall trends?

Due to higher average temperatures, there is more evaporation from the oceans and in a dynamical equilibrium situation, there must be more rainfall. So, I was wondering if the total of the global rainfall records is a reliable indictator of global warming? Count Iblis (talk) 18:52, 11 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This isn't a forum for GW, so this question would have been better asked at the reference desk But see How much more rain will global warming bring? -Atmoz (talk) 23:20, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

IPCC report contributors challenging the notion of consensus on global warming

Just another Scibaby sock - DNFTT! --Stephan Schulz (talk) 12:01, 22 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The following discussion has been closed. Please do not modify it.

I added the following entry, to better highlight the IPCC contributors who are challenging the notion of consensus on global warming:

Several prominent contributors to recent IPCC reports are critical of the claims of consensus on global warming. One contributor, Dr. Paul Reiter, professor of medical entomology at the Pasteur Institute in Paris, France stated in testimony to the United States Senate "…such consensus is the stuff of politics, not of science. Science proceeds by observation, hypothesis and experiment. The complexity of this process, and the uncertainties involved, are a major obstacle to a meaningful understanding of scientific issues by non-scientists. In reality, a genuine concern for mankind and the environment demands the inquiry, accuracy and skepticism that are intrinsic to authentic science. A public that is unaware of this is vulnerable to abuse."^[1]. Similarly, Dr. Richard S. Lindzen, the Alfred P. Sloan Professor of Atmospheric Science at MIT, indicated “Claims of consensus…serve to intimidate the public and even scientists” and are “a clear attempt to establish truth not by scientific methods but by perpetual repetition.”^[2]

Thank you. Grace Xu (talk) 07:11, 13 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Please check the FAQ on top here. Individual opinions on science do not belong in this article, where it is undue weight. There are several sub-articles for stuff like this (Politics of global warming, Global warming controversy etc). This particular submission would have its place on Climate change consensus (where if i'm not mistaken - its already mentioned). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:07, 13 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you Ms. Kim. Per your advice, I removed the individual opinion quote by China bureaucrat Qin Dahe. Thank you very much. Grace Xu (talk) 22:58, 13 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Try Mr. instead (if you insist on being formal). And see below. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 16:56, 14 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Explanation of Tony Sidaway's revert of an edit by Grace Xu

I have reverted an edit in which Grace Xu removed the following two paragraphs:

The Tibetan Plateau contains the world's third-largest store of ice. Qin Dahe, the former head of the China Meteorological Administration, said that the recent fast pace of melting and warmer temperatures will be good for agriculture and tourism in the short term; but issued a strong warning:

"Temperatures are rising four times faster than elsewhere in China, and the Tibetan glaciers are retreating at a higher speed than in any other part of the world." "In the short term, this will cause lakes to expand and bring floods and mudflows." "In the long run, the glaciers are vital lifelines for Asian rivers, including the Indus and the Ganges. Once they vanish, water supplies in those regions will be in peril."Global warming benefits to Tibet: Chinese official. Reported 18/Aug/2009.

The reason given for removal seems odd. --TS 14:17, 14 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The reason seems to have been WP:POINT. I agree with your reinsertion.. While Qin may be the one we quote for this information, he/she is certainly not the only one who is stating this, and it is of course a summary from Effects of global warming. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 14:28, 14 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I also agree: I see Grace's point about individuals, but it is clearly not just that individual (after Google and Google Scholar searches) so I will be adding more sources to that section. It might also be better to paraphrase the quote so we can stick all the appropriate refs by the material that they support and to avoid giving undue weight to one individual. Awickert (talk) 15:58, 14 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I like the removal. This article is already too long, and this seems a little too detailed for an overview article. It's okay to split out sub-topics per WP:SUMMARY. -Atmoz (talk) 17:24, 14 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

[Trim to remove stuff irrelevant now that GU is confirmed as a sock - William M. Connolley (talk) 08:16, 22 September 2009 (UTC)][reply]

Recent results from NASA's Aqua satellite - Dr Roy Spencer

I've moved this discussion to Talk:Climate_sensitivity. It was duplicated there, and clearly belongs there William M. Connolley (talk) 21:47, 19 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Now removed [5] by the originator of the discussion [6] in favour of a new discussion there William M. Connolley (talk) 10:06, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Lovelock's new book

I understand that James Lovelock's new book The Vanishing Face of Gaia states that climate change is irreversible and that humans are facing an unavoidable catastrophe that will kill millions, if not billions.(AFP-Jiji, "Scientific Community prays that Lovelock is wrong about warming", Japan Times, Sep 21, 2009, p. 7.) He is a notable scientist in the climate change topic, and his opinion is different from the IPCC's stance that global warming is reversible if action is taken to reduce greenhouse gasses. Should Lovelock's opinion be noted in this or any of the other warming articles? Cla68 (talk) 23:05, 20 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Are you sure that the IPCC's view is that global warming is reversible by reducing greenhouse gases? Citation of a source to that effect would be helpful. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 23:17, 20 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Here's what the article says:

“

'I have the highest respect for James Lovelock' said Rajendra Pachauri, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, whose report serves as the scientific benchmark for the U.N. climate talks. 'But so far the evidence that we have passed the point when things become irreversible is still very small and highly improbable. I think if we take action now, we will be able to stave off major disaster' he said.

”

I assume Pachauri is speaking on behalf of the IPCC with that statement, although I could be mistaken. Cla68 (talk) 23:43, 20 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Could you give a working link to the full story? I don't know whether Pachauri is formally speaking on behalf of the IPCC in this case, or what the phrase "things become irreversible" might mean. With no context it's hard to understand what's going on. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:01, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The AFP article is here - the context is that Lovelock thinks that abrupt climate change is inevitable. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:10, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think you will find that Lovelock's position is a minority one (see fringe), as the article also states, and that you are inflating his (Lovelock's) importance... as far as i can tell every time Lovelock has been raised, that has been the view. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 00:10, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

If I understand right you are saying that his opinion is not notable enough to be included? Cla68 (talk) 00:13, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Global warming controversy would be a better place for this. You could add Lovelock's opinion, the response from Pachauri (whatever it means), and so on. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 00:23, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think you're probably right. Cla68 (talk) 01:34, 21 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Talk Topic: update article title to "Global warming change", thus combining "Global warming" and "Climate Change"

Talk Topic: update article title to "Global warming change", thus combining "Global warming" and bigger picture "Climate Change"

Hmm...I'm not sure what the advantage would be of doing that. Could you please explain why the article title should be changed, and how your proposal would be an improvement?--CurtisSwain (talk) 07:49, 22 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The first sentence does not seem intellectually honest. I have not found a reliable reference to indicate that "global warming" has a defining characteristic of "mid 20th century". This would lead one to believe that "global warming" has not happened previously during the history of earth. There are countless references to indicate that it is not just "mid 20th century".

I have found a reliable source for the definition of "global warming". http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/global+warming 1. "an increase in the earth's average atmospheric temperature that causes corresponding changes in climate and that may result from the greenhouse effect." 2. "An increase in the average temperature of the earth's atmosphere, especially a sustained increase sufficient to cause climatic change."

Perhaps changing the title to something like "Recent Global Warming" or "Rapid Global Warming" or remove the time scope of the first sentence would provide a more intellectually honest statement.

I don't understand "intellectually honest"; "Global Warming" in the public mind and the vast, vast majority of discussions is related to recent warming. On Wiki we usually try to use the most common term. Global warming has indeed gone on in the past, but other articles cover past warming, which is why there is the "For ..." at the surface. I don't think that there is a way to use the common usage of "global warming" for what people will be looking for, while also including all warming episodes. Awickert (talk) 17:12, 22 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Thank you for response. One definition of "intellectually honest" is "honesty in performing intellectual activities like thought or communication". I guess I am looking for a more accurate and more permanance than recent discussions, most common terms, common usage, catering to what people will be looking for and so on. Perhaps I should search for a more scientific approach dealing with accuracy rather than Wikipedia since this resource seems to focus on recent conversations, common jargon, etc.

"Combining" when an article is this long just seems the wrong way to go. As for your comments on accuracy I suggest you read around the meaning of language to help your perspective to clear. --BozMo talk 11:19, 23 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Please read WP:NEO. The term "global warming change" isn't used by anyone, therefore it can't be an article title here. Oren0 (talk) 17:28, 23 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This is why this needs to be amended to say that Global Warming is a scientific THEORY. Right now the article presents Global Warming as scientific fact, which it is not. There's no discussion that Global Warming has come under intense scrutiny in the scientific community. It needs to be changed. jbird669 (talk) 18:37, 24 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

jbird669, please read the FAQ. The Question 8 is addressing that issue. --McSly (talk) 20:16, 24 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

jbird669, intense scrutiny may be found at History of climate change science and the resources provided in that article.--CurtisSwain (talk) 23:24, 24 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

FAQ question 8 says That the temperature is rising is an "observation". However, that is not true. The temperature is actually the output of a proprietary and highly complex model. The FAQ does make it clear that the supposition that increasing CO2 causes global warming is a theory. In addition, the majority of the article is about the theory and not the "obervation". Q Science (talk) 06:29, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Please take a look at where the OP is attempting to insert "theory", it may also be of use to consider why the OP thinks that theory should be inserted. (what is a scientific "fact"?) --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 06:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The problem is that the phrase "Global Warming" (like most dictionary entries) has several very different definitions. The article itself uses several of these without any specific distinctions. In particular, many people want the term "anthropogenic" added when CO2 is the cause and a different phrase when simply discussing warming without attributing cause. Q Science (talk) 09:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I suspect that this might help: WP:WTA#Theories_and_hypotheses --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 06:36, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Theory, Law and Fact in Science. TLDR summary: facts are consistent observations; theories explain facts. A scientific theory is much stronger than a scientific fact. See also Evolution as theory and fact. -Atmoz (talk) 06:50, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I enjoyed those, thanks. However, the Webster definition is a bit looser. (Actually, a lot.) Q Science (talk) 09:20, 25 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

One should take into consideration an early statement of Pielke jr about the Real Climate Bllog, which applies as well to this article: The Controversy ist not so mucb about science, but about politics and political measures, to use only scientific sources and to leave out quality press repeats this error again. --Polentario (talk) 19:00, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Met Office

Met Office warns of catastrophic global warming in our lifetimes

Not sure if this is new or covers anything not already covered but it's a potential data point. --TS 16:22, 28 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Its in the Torygraph too. However, I'd like to see the underlying Met Office report rather than the newspapers spin on it. "could" be 4 oC by 2060 is nothing new (though very unlikely), since we already know there is a spread of possible outcomes William M. Connolley (talk) 16:34, 28 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, specifically I was hoping the report in question was already in the public domain so we could determine its significance. --TS 17:20, 28 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

[7] is more useful. 4 oC by 2060 is clearly a worst-case based on A1F1 and weakened sinks and who knows what else. [8] is the press release. Notably absent is any proper publication. We shouldn't touch this until it has been published William M. Connolley (talk) 20:51, 28 September 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Painting roofs white as geoengineering

There were not many good examples of geoengineering (the other "Responses to Global Warming" sections have more examples), so I have added this key example forwarded by Nobel Prize winning scientist and U.S. Department of Energy Secretary Steven Chu to "paint roofs white".^[3] Natra Yan (talk) 03:45, 1 October 2009 (UTC)Scibaby sock[reply]

This will reduce the acidification of the oceans how? http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/oct/04/arctic-seas-turn-to-acid --Nigelj (talk) 17:38, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It wont, at least not directly. In fact, since cold water can store more CO2, it will (slightly) increase acidity because it will slightly reduce temperatures compared to the default. But the greater effect, especially for buildings, is indirect. It will reduce the energy for air conditioning, since buildings will absorb less heat from direct sun exposure. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:50, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Oh, I thought we were going to try to make up for the reflectivity lost due to melting ice-sheets by painting as much of the rest of the earth white as we could, while burning the other half of the earth's oil as quick we like. Compared to the huge reductions in CO2 emissions that we need worldwide to stay below 4 deg C, I think this will be about as minimal in effect, though. Consider the roof/not-roof ratios of buildings, the difference in reflectivity of old and dirty white paint to other materials, that a dark roof would absorb winter sun better and so reduce heating requirements for the other 6 months, that most of the world's population doesn't have air-con anyway etc. What about recommending loft insulation?! It reminds me a little of government advice to close all curtains and sit under the kitchen table to survive a nuclear attack. I think if we can just unplug all our mobile phone chargers, it'd be OK to keep driving everywhere and heating our pools for ever. See http://www.withouthotair.com/ --Nigelj (talk) 18:56, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Yamal etc

Interested in Yamal / the latest McI / Hockey sticks? Then Talk:Hockey stick controversy#.22Hockey_Stick.22 now proven not to exist is where you should be William M. Connolley (talk) 21:27, 5 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

How do we know it is caused by human activity?

I came to this article with one objective: What is the evidence that observed global warming is caused by humans? I have had a really difficult time trying to find the answer to that question from this article. I supposed one could say I should go read the sources that are referenced. But shouldn't this article contain at least a summary of the evidence that answers such a basic question? This is, after all, the main argument of the global warming nay-sayers: fluctuations in world temperature are normal and not man-caused. It seems to me that by evading this question in the article, we are actually giving support to the global warming nay-sayers. So where is a Wikipedia article that summarizes the evidence? Is it one of the articles referenced within this article? If so which one? I must say that this is difficult to figure out by reading the article. It makes one wonder if global warming really is caused by human activity. --Westwind273 (talk) 16:03, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I notice you've found Attribution of recent climate change. Perhaps we should make it easier to find? William M. Connolley (talk) 16:29, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I now see that "caused" in the first sentence links to Attribution of recent climate change - that seems good enough. No? William M. Connolley (talk) 20:03, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Hmm...I don't know. It kind of looks like the link is to a article about what deforestation caused. I think it would be best to separate the two wikilinks like this:

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase is caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation.--CurtisSwain (talk) 22:42, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'm a bit slow on the uptake, but I like it, Awickert (talk) 04:36, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Water vapor is by far most important greenhouse gas, perhaps over 90% of the effect. A slight in humidity trumps all the man-made CO2 ever produced. It's hard to see a mechanism by which anthropogenic emissions have any measurable impact. Kauffner (talk) 03:23, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

But the residence time for water vaopr in the atmosphere is very short - evaporation, clouds, rain, etc. The amount of water vapor in the atmosphere is therefore a function of global temperature. The idea is that an increase in say CO_2 (which has a long residence time) will result in an increase in temp., and that increase in temp will lead to an increase in water vapor, ergo much more temp. change than just with CO2. So water vapor basically amplifies the signal of any warming or cooling, Awickert (talk) 04:24, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Also see the FAQ Q14. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:20, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Global warming in Japan

Anyone interested in Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Global warming in Japan? William M. Connolley (talk) 19:58, 6 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Note cyclical variations which lead to recent cooling trends

The following discussion is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

Another thread started by a scibaby sock. Let's stay focused on science.

It is important to note up front the source of recent cooling trends. An excellent reliable source for this is: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/23/science/earth/23cool.htm?_r=1

I made a note of this in the introduction. This will help avoid confusion with the topic at hand, since the observed trends in the first figure indicate cooling. Abu Triale (talk) 05:12, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Abu Triale's edit was reverted by an editor who did not, unfortunately, join the discussion here. Is the information contained in that NYTimes article contained in the article? Cla68 (talk) 05:20, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I left a message on Abu's talk page. The New York Times article does not say what Abu claims it does. He does not seem to understand the difference between "The plateau in temperatures" (e.g, a flat line) and a cooling trend (e.g, a downward line) Raul654 (talk) 05:21, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Unfortunately, threats were left at my page, and the above editor violated WP:AGF. I will go ahead and change the language to reflect the plateau effect (even though the real effect is cooling, per the data in the top figure). Abu Triale (talk) 05:25, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Making edits that claim one thing and citing a source that says something entirely different makes it rather hard to assume good faith. Raul654 (talk) 05:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I have updated the earlier edit, to reflect the halt in rising temperatures due to cyclical variations. It still seems very odd, however, since the overall 9 year trend is cooling. Abu Triale (talk) 05:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

If the trend is cooling over the past 9 years, I certainly don't see it and it can't be very strong. I see a cooling trend over the past 4 years, but of a small amplitude. What is this cooling trend you speak of? Awickert (talk) 06:11, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It is difficult for me to tell due to the strange presentation of the data, but it seems to my eye as though the data point for 2009 is slightly lower than for the 2000 time frame, thus the overall (net) trend would be cooling. This is the trend I speak of. Abu Triale (talk) 06:33, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Thou shalt not make trends of two points. :) 2 points define a line, but a trend is usually some kind of regression that uses all the data; from my eyeballing of the data points in question, it seems that any such regression would have a very weak slope for the time frame you have indicated, and almost certainly not outside of error of "no change in mean annual temperature with time". Awickert (talk) 06:47, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Raul is right, Abu Triale, the NYTimes article states that, "global temperatures have been relatively stable for a decade and may even drop in the next few years." It doesn't say that cooling has been happening. If your edits match what the sources say, then there isn't a problem. Cla68 (talk) 06:34, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Of course there is a problem... we still do not source science from popular media, and weight is still an issue.. especially on the main article. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:51, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Boy (and ladies), this is a new spin on an old friend. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:13, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Ok, but I think the NYTimes article should be mentioned in the text, which I've just done. Cla68 (talk) 07:22, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'd prefer to take it out again. It's really a non-information ("it seem, but is not"), and thus certainly not important enough for the lede. It's also very much dependent on the time of writing. Moreover, we have for a long time tried to only use high-quality scientific sources, not the popular press (not even it it is the NYT). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It's not in the lede, it's in the section on temperature. The NYTimes article quotes a number of scientists and climate organizations. If the British Met Office finds that temperatures have generally been stable since 1999, that a fairly significant and relevant finding, in my opinion. Cla68 (talk) 07:46, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

We do not source science to the NYTimes. Popular media (no matter if they quote scientists) get things wrong too often. And i'm sorry your personal opinion on what is significant is irrelevant (thats why we have WP:WEIGHT). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 08:48, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]
Point taken about the lede, sorry, I misread that. Maybe we can find better sources. The MetOffice statement is here. They reference "recent research by Jeff Knight" - I think this press release is more apropos, and I think this is a preprint (although it seems to miss the references section). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

We can add that source also. By the way, someone just reverted the information, so I've asked for a second opinion at the RS noticeboard. Cla68 (talk) 14:07, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with Kim Dabelstein Petersen that we don't source science to newspapers. In particular, the edit that I reverted gives a misleading impression of the prevailing trend in global temperatures and indeed could almost have been carefully crafted in order to do just that. --TS 14:46, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Uninvolved editors at the RS Noticeboard appear to disagree with you. Cla68 (talk) 14:56, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think that is going to help. This article is (primarily) about the science and needs sources as such William M. Connolley (talk) 15:02, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Again, uninvolved editors disagree with you. The RS noticeboard regulars are familiar with the use of reliable sources in all areas of the project. Is this article in a special category that I haven't heard of until now? Cla68 (talk) 15:06, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

There is something on WP policy that says that scientific sources are better, and we try to limit ourselves to those here because of the large amount of controversy on the issue. I bet there is some scientific source that talks about the same thing as the NY Times article though I haven't looked; the NY times article would be very appropriate for the Global warming controversy page IMO in that it highlights the "it's fake" vs. "it's natural cyclicity" argument that's been popping up in recent years. Awickert (talk) 15:37, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Adding the second Met. Office press release and retaining the New York Times reference, I have reworded as follows:

The decade 1999-2009 marked what the Met Office called "very small global temperature rises" but this is in line with expectations of climate scientists during warming trends.

The NYT reference doesn't seem too much out of place in that context. --TS 16:47, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Request for protection

I have asked for the article to be protected for now because of the apparently escalating edit war over recently added content.

Cla68 has said that some uninvolved parties say that New York Times is okay to use as a source. That's true as far as it goes; it would be adequate as a source if we didn't have better sources--and we have much, much better sources on the science. Although I tried to integrate the addition by reference to the scientific context, I don't think I did a particularly good job. nor could I have done because--and I regret that I persisted although I was conscious of this fact--the statement isn't really telling the whole story. What the Met Office calls "very small global temperature rises" are small in the context of the two preceding decades, and in particular the 1990s. What we have now is a large, persisting and growing temperature anomaly, and climate scientists attribute recent behavior to internal cyclical variation. We should perhaps cover that in the section in question, but not in the way I tried to do. It needs good scientific sources. --TS 00:21, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I expect that the NYTimes article will produce additional commentary on the issue, because I would think that the recent findings that temperatures have only slightly increased over the last 10 years is rather significant. It troubles me that newspaper reports are being completely shut out from the this article. I personally have had a newspaper subscription and been an almost daily reader of various newspapers for about 15 years. I use newspapers often in the articles that I edit. WP policy does not make exceptions for the use of major newspapers from articles on any topic, except BLPs in some cases. If the WP community feels that newspapers should not be used in science articles, then they need to change the policy. As of right now, policy supports using this NYTimes report in this article. Cla68 (talk) 01:18, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You can't make blanket statements like this. Per WP:V, The appropriateness of any source always depends on the context. It's nice that you read newspapers; indeed, more people should. But that's not relevant to the present discussion. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 01:24, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It's an article about science. not about the opinions of people who read or write newspapers, no matter how long their subscriptions may be.

I'm at a loss to understand what you mean by "WP policy does not make exceptions for the use of major newspapers from articles on any topic, except BLPs in some cases." The inclusion of any information or any source in an article is at the discretion and subject to the consensus of the editors. Wikipedia does not, as you seem to imply, mandate the reporting of whatever the New York Times, the Guardian or Le Figaro might have to say on a matter on any given day. As of right now, and as ever, Wikipedia policy supports decision-making by consensus based on the neutral point of view and the use of the best available sources. --TS 01:25, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Wikipedia:MEDRS#Popular press seems related. -Atmoz (talk) 01:32, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This is an interesting discussion regarding the use of newspapers as reliable sources in science related articles. It seems this standard should apply doubly to blogs, which are not vetted or peer reviewed in any way. It seems therefore that references to Realclimate in various global warming articles will need to go to. CrenshawB (talk) 04:45, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Certainly it would be wrong to use RealClimate as a sole source for a description of a scientific matter--if we had to do so it would tend to indicate that the subject matter was too obscure for Wikipedia. As it happens we source Gavin Schmidt on his RealClimate blog just once in this particular article, and it is a second source, the first source being an article in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.

It's not so much that the New York Times or any other newspaper is unacceptable, rather that the subject in question is covered better in other, more reliable sources and the way in which the information was presented is not very accurate. Rejecting this particular citation to the New York Times does not imply blanket rejection of all New York Times articles, nor does it imply that we have to ditch the blogs. --TS 04:58, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I disagree slightly with Tony when he says "Rejecting this particular citation to the New York Times does not imply blanket rejection of all New York Times articles". I think it does imply blanket rejection of all news articles as sole sources, but the article under discussion is just as good as another may be as a secondary and probably more approachable source. Awickert (talk) 05:04, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I don't think we really disagree. For instance if a newspaper comes up with some nonsense that misrepresents scientific opinion or makes it up out of whole cloth--and I know we can all give many examples of either--then it isn't going to go into this article. And I agree that a newspaper should never be the most significant source, for this and other reasons. --TS 06:19, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

(I realize that this doesn't solve the question of acceptable source material, but perhaps that needs a different forum than here? This might solve the immediate issue of edit warring.) Is it acceptable to sidestep this current argument re acceptability or not of newspaper articles and get the article unprotected by referencing the source article? To wit: ‘Do Global Temperature Trends Over the Last Decade Falsify Climate Predictions’ by J. Knight, J.J. Kenney, C. Folland, G. Harris, G.S. Jones, M. Palmer, D. Parker, A. Scaife, and P. Stott in a supplement to the August issue of the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (PDF available at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/global_temperatures_09.pdf ) And also the more readable summary from the UK met office: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climatechange/policymakers/policy/slowdown.html Lissajous (talk) 12:09, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I appreciate you doing the legwork to find this link, I think Mr. Schulz and TS also mentioned it above. The NYTimes article mentions more opinions than just the Met Office study, but if that's unacceptable to the regulars here, then I think this Met Office report will have to do. Cla68 (talk) 13:36, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think this is the reasonable answer to the edit conflict. It isn't that the NYT is unacceptable as a source for the global warming article, but if a better source is available on a topic it should be used instead, and there are very few issues where a newspaper would be a better source. The whole article is at a very high standard.Ignignot (talk) 15:17, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

And we still need to address the weight problem. This seems quite a bit more appropriate in Instrumental temperature record, where there is also room to expand on this... and if significant enough, it will be reflected here in the summary section of that article (via Temperature record). --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 15:29, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

The single sentence that was added helped the reader understand how the issue is reported, and being brief, it certainly did not give undue weight. Jonathunder (talk) 17:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Compared to all the other important things that could be included, it certainly is a very minor issue, both in relevance and temporal interest (we're not the news you know). And to describe how this issue is "reported" is not within the topic of this article. That is something that is relevant on one of the many sub-articles. --Kim D. Petersen (talk) 17:49, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This is a very minor issue. Indeed scientifically it isn't clear that it is an issue at all. Kim is right; this is better off introduced into Itr (I know, its boring over there, not nearly so many people get to watch your exciting edits, but never mind) especially this page is (regrettably) locked William M. Connolley (talk) 18:06, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I have asked for the article to be protected for now because of the apparently escalating edit war over recently added content. - just to note: I would prefer the article to be unprotected William M. Connolley (talk) 14:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I've created an updated copy of the article with what I think (hope?) might be an acceptable change, incorporating the new references at User:Lissajous/Global_warming. I've also moved the para up one or two places to be adjacent to the discussion of temperature variation, and changed the wording to match the changed references (although I hope it captures the original intent). If any interested parties could check this out to make sure it isn't too far from some consensus version of the truth in a non Phillip_K_Dick way I'd appreciate it. (I saw the comment above on moving it to the temperature record section, and that seems fine to me too, but I've run out of time just now - if someone cares enough they're welcome to edit away). I'll also ask Kevin to remove the protection. Of course, he might just say wait a week. Lissajous (talk) 17:32, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Thanks for the attempt. But sorry, I don't like the result. It sits awkwardly were it is now, obviously gives too much weight to a single paper, and skirts the issue. Can we go with a stronger, declarative sentence? "Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. This is believed to explain the relatively mild warming in the decade from 1999 to 2009.[ref here]"? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 18:00, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Sure - feel free to make the edit (I've run out of cycles just for a while). Lissajous (talk) 18:51, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Had more cycles free than I thought. I've updated to match with Stephan Schulz's suggestion. Is the current suggestion broadly acceptable? Any fundamental problems? Lissajous (talk) 19:42, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

So if I gather what you're proposing correctly, it's the addition of the following statement, using as references a paper published in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society and a press release from the Met Office.

Global temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlay long term trends and can temporarily mask them. This is believed to explain the relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009.

This seems okay to me if I understand you correctly. If there are no further objections I think we can probably unprotect. --TS 20:12, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Looks reasonably good. I like the stability bit. But just to nitpick my own suggestion: "This is believed" is weasely. May I offer another simple statement: "The relative stability in temperature from 1999 to 2009 is consistent with such such an episode.", which also more closely follows the source. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:24, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

With the protect removed, I've copied over my cache, but it's slightly out of sync with the last few suggestions - will chase it now. Lissajous (talk) 20:41, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Find a decent source for it first. I've removed it as science by press release. -Atmoz (talk) 21:07, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Did you check both sources? One was published as a BAMS supplement, the other was the human-friendly press release. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 21:12, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

A BAMS supplement? What does it supplement? I can't find anything related in any recent BAMS article or pre-prints, but I'd be happy to be proved wrong. In any case, you should be citing the actual article and not the supplements. Press releases don't count for squat. I can't believe you're trying to defend using them as a source. -Atmoz (talk) 21:37, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I've got a query in with the UK Met office to clarify the publication date - are you ok to let the article stand for 24 hours until they've had time to get back? (I don't want the war to start again ... but I undid your undo when I thought it was a simple misunderstanding, i.e. before I saw your frank response above). Lissajous (talk) 21:44, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Unless you can find the article it actually supplements I will not be happy. However, I won't revert again (at least for the next 24hr on this article...) -Atmoz (talk) 21:50, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I expect it will be at least 24 hrs to hear from the Met. In the interim, I suspect that it's a supplement to Peterson, T.C., and M.O. Baringer, 2009: State of the Climate in 2008. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 90, S1–S196. Lissajous (talk) 22:08, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Ok - a bit more digging and ... it's pretty much as I cited in the article (pre-deletion) - it's part of the Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Metereological Society Vol 90, No. 8, August 2009 - "State of the Climate in 2008". If you want me to mail you the 60Mbyte PDF of the 200 page supplement (no, it's not your average advertising supplement to the local paper), tell me. Or you can contact the AMS and ask them for it. If that's sufficient, can you revert your deletion? Lissajous (talk) 22:38, 8 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I have access to BAMS, and... What a thoroughly useless document. They produce one of these things every year? Waste of paper. 270 coauthors. They should each only get to put it on their CV 1/n where n is the total number of citations this thing ever gets. (Rounds nicely to zero.) Looking at past editions: Citations for "State of the Climate" in 2007: 3 times, 2006: 3 times, 2005: 4 times, 2004: 11 times, 2003: 17 times, 2002: 6 times. Compared to IPCC 2007 cited already > 450 times. State of the Climate 2008 hasn't been cited yet (no surprise). This is still too new (anything after ~2007 is too new). Judging from past editions, these are low impact documents that are generally ignored, which is also what we should do. But if you want to add it, cite it correctly so those interested can find it. See page 4 for proper citation. -Atmoz (talk) 04:46, 9 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Done. FWIW, I share some of your concerns, but it was a means to break a deadlock on citing the NYT vs citing the underlying science. Either way, I'm done with it. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Lissajous (talk • contribs)

I propose, based on the development of the discussion herein, that we codify these findings in a new Wikipedia rule: WP:NNPAOBASFWPSA...."No Newspaper Articles Or Blogs As Sources For Wikipedia Science Articles." I will post this on this noticeboards, and see what develops. CrenshawB (talk) 03:56, 9 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

In your posts you probably should link to the related discussions here and on the Reliable Sources noticeboard or else other Wikipedians aren't going to understand why someone would feel the need to make such a proposal. Cla68 (talk) 04:10, 9 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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Discussion on cherry picking of data underpinning global warming should be here!

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These issues are all covered in the FAQ

I can understand why certain editors would wish to hide away the recent revelations regarding the whole basis of exceptional global warming to a side article, but this [9] article makes specific allegations about the failure of the whole climate "science" community to adequately peer review their papers and so calls into question not only papers regarding the hockey stick, but all papers reviewed using the same general process. Furthermore, how can this controversy be adequately covered when it has been hitherto stated that nothing gets into the article without being peer reviewed - when that very peer review process has been called into question. When it appears you can't trust the sources that we are told are the only reliable sources for material for this article, this creates a bit of a problem and to be honest I'd like to hear other editors ideas as to how to proceed. 85.210.112.144 (talk) 13:30, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Opinion pieces are not reliable sources except for the opinion of their authors. I'll take the scientific peer review process over one guys opinion any time. If McK's comment becomes notable, take it to Hockey stick controversy. If it becomes notable for global warming in general, take it to Global warming controversy. According to McK, the peer review has been to lenient, and bad papers have been published. That should make it easier for him to get his work published in a proper venue, not harder.--Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:37, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I presume McK = McIntyre (for anyone else that was wondering). Just to help me out, can anyone point to the wikipedia policy and what it says about "peer review" as a requirement particularly when applied to a subject of such a high profile political nature as global warming? 85.210.112.144 (talk) 14:54, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You presume wrong. Did you read your source? It's by economist Ross McKitrick. The policy you are looking for is WP:CONSENSUS - it has long been the consensus that this article is about the science of global warming and that we base the article only on the best available sources, not on Greenpeace statements or Exxon shills. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 15:15, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

OK, let me rephrase that question. How, in what you tell me is supposed to be a scientific article do we cover the numerous suggestions of the misuse of the scientific process as details in articles such as this [10]. To be blunt, how do we address the criticisms that a small group of people have failed to appropriately apply the peer review process, when there are some editors here that are insisting that only material from those same "peers" - the one who are being criticised can be included in the article. There is inherently a conflict of interest here and we need to find a way around it! 85.210.112.144 (talk) 15:29, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

There are a huge number of scientists, there are many scientific journals. Scientific fraud is dealt with effectively within the scientific community, see e.g. here. Count Iblis (talk) 15:35, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

To add to CI's post above, the scientific method isn't perfect and isn't perfectly followed, but it sure beats any alternative. Climatology is nowhere near the only area which has problems with data sharing. Just look at physical anthropology - their findings almost always rely on access to artifacts or fossils, which is often difficult to get because the people that have them want to no competition - they want to be the expert on that specific topic. That goes against the spirit of the scientific method, and those involved in that sort of behavior should be reprimanded. However, I don't believe for a minute that the findings of climatologists are based on fraud or conspiracy, just that their peer review could be improved upon, like in almost all areas of science. Ignignot (talk) 16:13, 7 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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What happened to global warming?

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This section has become a target for banned trolls who continually misinterpret the facts. The science is well covered in the article.

The following BBC report was removed from this dissusion page: [11]. In summary, it discusses the same topic in the NYTimes a couple of weeks ago that global temperatures have been steady over the last 10 years. Please discuss the impact of this below. Cla68 (talk) 18:37, 11 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

See FAQ Question 7. Note the BBC article is shaky; e.g., it calls Piers Corbyn a "solar scientist." Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 19:09, 11 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Just read FAQ Q7. This is an old chestnut. I fully support the (admittedly unofficial) policy of keeping this article purely based on mainstream published science and discussing the non-scientific public's reactions and opinions elsewhere. And that includes the scribblings and utterances of ill- and partially-informed news reporters and all other media people, celebrities and personalities. --Nigelj (talk) 19:15, 11 October 2009 (UTC) (edit conflict with SBHB above)[reply]

Also note that we did add the original MetOffice result to the article already. See section Global warming#Temperature changes. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 20:45, 11 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

(following moved from duplicate discussion)

The BBC [12] have produced an article giving a reasonably fair appraisal of the evidence that is not found in this article about the many reasons some experts believe global warming will stop. Is has been repeatedly stated that only information from reputable sources can be included. Is the BBC a reputable source and if so can we now start including the fact that global warming has stopped? 88.110.65.93 (talk) 08:13, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I have removed your erroneous link but presumably you are referring to their weather blog [13]? In which cass as far as I can see it is not a substantial review, just at best and editorial. --BozMo talk 08:19, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Bozmo, the link is the BBC NEWS reporting on the BBC. It is not just "blog" as you try to dismiss it. It is a reputable news service (or is it ... that's the question I'm asking). Also mentioned by the telegraph[14] and here [15], here[16] and daily mail [17]. 88.110.65.93 (talk) 08:29, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Even the Wall Street Journal [18] think that the BBC are a credible source, but apparently not wikipedia which still maintains that anyone who is anyone believes that the world is still getting warmer. 88.110.65.93 (talk) 12:14, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Actually the link you left and I was replying to was [19]--BozMo talk 20:01, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I will look for a link soon. But I did some research on this phenomena last spring while doing a mock trial between France and Bangladesh in relation to compensations for global warming on the basis of the European Court for Human Rights. I found, in a peer reviewed study of empirical evidence, that global warming has stalled (since the early 2000s because of a global cooling cycle we are now experiencing). It however, has not lost its legitimacy in the eyes of the majority of the scientific community, though there are significant theories in marginal areas of the scientific community that would indicate human activities may have some negative causal relationships with global warming, though not apparently strong enough to outweigh the positive causal relationships. —Preceding unsigned comment added by MarkRunyan (talk • contribs) 16:56, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It seems the trouble is not whether or not the BBC is a reliable source, but that some of you think you've found something new and credible that means you can now say, "What happened to global warming?" and "global warming will stop". The evidence these reporters are stumbling across has been well known to all serious climate scientists for years or decades; it is built into their models; it is part of this article's FAQs; it is not news. You don't have to be a scientist to understand it: we've burnt fossil fuels big-time for a few hundred years and released all the CO₂ that took millions of years to get locked up into them. That CO₂ is a greenhouse gas and is absolutely certain to warm the earth by the greenhouse effect. This isn't going to go away, no matter how you cut it. Stop clutching at straws. The only things left to debate is how soon, how much and how bad. Oh, and how are you going to cut your CO₂ emissions by 50 - 80%. --Nigelj (talk) 21:25, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Nigelj, fortunately the BBC has a legal duty of NPOV. That means that even when its staff would like to support one or other viewpoint it cannot because of its charter. You cannot just dismiss the BBC article as "we all knew about it ... ", because there has been a cynical campaign to ensure it is not in the article. It really does beggar belief and credibility for anyone to now suggest the article has a NPOV, when the BBC which is notoriously pro-environment, has decided that its legal duty requires it to voice the view of the "sceptics". To my mind the position of those resisting a NPOV is now indefensible and it is time the article abided by the wikipedia policy of NPOV and informed the reader of the full range of views (i.e. sceptics). For a start, lets tell the reader what every media from teh BBC to wallstreet journal are currently telling their readers: GLOBAL WARMING HAS STOPPED (i.e. global temperatures have not risen this century). Unless you admit this simple inescapable truth, how on earth do you expect anyone to believe any of the rest? And to be honest, with as far as I can see every other media outlet (except perhaps the guardian) admitting that global warming is on hold, wikipedia really is looking more and more like the mouthpiece of environmental fanatics rather than the measured NEUTRAL view of authority. 88.110.65.93 (talk) 22:34, 12 October 2009 (UTC

You misread the BBC article and you misunderstand the science. This is not new, global warming has not stopped, the temporary slowdown in temperature rise is already in the article, blogs are not reliable sources and your claims about the BBC are complete fantasy. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 22:47, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Schulz, yet again you try to pretend that the BBC is some kind of blog. The fact is that the BBC charter covers all output from the BBC and it must maintain a neutral position (the same neutral position of wikipedia). Anyone that knows the BBC, knows that this article will have been gone through with a fine tooth comb (and given the horrific response of nature I can see why!). The BBC have not said that manmade global warming has stopped, what they have said is that there has not been an increase in global temperature. They have explained in a neutral way to their readers (as is the objective of wikipedia) why some experts think that this indicates that there will not be manmade global warming in the future. These are the hallmarks of a professional media outlet which prides itself on accuracy - this is what is called "Neutral Point of View", you might not like it, but there it is! 88.110.65.93 (talk) 22:57, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'm not pretending that the BBC is a blog, but several of the other sources you linked to are, e.g. [20] and, surprise, even [21]. As I already said, we cover the short-term effect of variability already, with good, scientific sources. Sorry, a off-the-cuff remark is a popular press article does not have enough weight for this article. If you can find decent scientific sources, we can certainly include them. As a comparison, the IPCC AR4 WG1 report has about 1000 pages. 2 sentences by (unqualified) standard sceptics in a popular press article does not meet WP:WEIGHT. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 23:14, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I have been following this discussion, and this is my conclusion. Warming has not occurred in 11 years, and this is a fact reported by reliable media, culled from various technical sources. It is difficult to address earlier concerns noted here, since there is not a specific "journal article" with the subject "No warming in 11 years"...this is not the way science works. Likely, articles of this type will emerge as this current stable period continues (both research type and reviews of other studies), but in the interim, the best we have is a reporting of the facts, by reliable sources. And the fact is warming appears to have stopped, and there are some emerging explanations for this. Thus, the BBC article should be included in the global warming article. I'm not sure why there is such fear of reporting facts. James T. Greely (talk) 06:37, 13 October 2009 (UTC)Scibaby sock[reply]

Sigh. As repeated many times, we do report on the fact, and with better sourcing (a MetOffice/BAMS publication). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 07:19, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This notion that "global temperatures have not risen this century" is of course very misleading. The past decade has seen global average temperatures consistently at levels higher than almost any year ever before recorded. This is not a pattern consistent with "global cooling" or any of the other nonsense some editors are trying to push. --TS 07:48, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

~~"No warming" and "cooling" are two different things. Please do not distort the dicussion. James T. Greely (talk) 13:30, 13 October 2009 (UTC)~~Scibaby sock[reply]

I was referring to MarkRunyan's claim above that "global warming has stalled (since the early 2000s because of a global cooling cycle we are now experiencing)." --TS 14:04, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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Suggestion: semiprotection for the talk page

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Thanks for the responses. I'm setting this suggestion to one side as it obviously has little or no support. --TS 14:01, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I don't normally hold with semiprotection of talk pages, but it's pretty obvious that most IP and non-autoconfirmed edits on this talk page are by a single user who typically takes 12-24 hours to get found out and blocked. In the meantime we waste time humoring the fellow and waiting for him to betray his identity. This is also encouraging some long term wikipedians who should know better to indulge scibaby for reasons they have apparent proudly announced on troll websites.

There are more productive uses for this page, which is for discussion about a science article, not a pop group or a funny video showing beautiful ladies forced by reduced circumstanaces to forego clothing and sharing a single cup. By keeping this page open to that troll we are simply providing him with free entertainment and wasting a quite large amount of our own time that would be better spent elsewhere.

I propose that, for a month at least, we experiment with semiprotection of this page. I have no objection to the creation of an overspill sub-page that can be used by people with a genuine point to make. This would have the advantage that those of us who choose to watch the article would be able to remain focused on the science using this talk page for that purpose, while those of a more generous disposition could watch the subpage.

This would, I propose, put an end to scibaby's attempts to monopolize discussion on this talk page, which is to the detriment of its primary purpose: improvement of our coverage of science. --TS 00:13, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Oppose per WP:DENY. He's obnoxious, but can usually be identified within 2-3 edits. The fact that people respond to his trolling is another matter altogether. Block and ignore. Not to put too fine a point on it, but the important parts of RBI is the B and the I. The R is optional, especially on talk pages. Don't be in a hurry to revert before a block otherwise you've be reverted back. -Atmoz (talk) 00:20, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think per Atmoz: people really need to learn to ignore trolls and remove their posts, not respond. And anyway, Scibaby tends to mature his socks enough to edit semi William M. Connolley (talk) 07:48, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I've just realised that I'm probably one of those "who should know better". The trouble is - as I've been told elsewhere on WP, and I think some policy doc was quoted at me at the time - 'silence implies consent' in Talk page discussions. Also, I worry about readers who are one step up from being unsophisticated WP users, who may well read an article then click on its Talk page to see if it's a stable, believable one or one that is in the grip of controversy and/or edit wars. This talk page looks, to such a glance, as if its editors can't agree on even the basics. That is a shame if 95% of the controversy is due to one disruptive sock-master. What a shame if nothing can be done. --Nigelj (talk) 22:07, 12 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Silence does not imply consent - that is a terrible pernicious rule that encourages endless attempts to get the last word. Perhaps we should put up a banner saying so? William M. Connolley (talk) 08:02, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

~~No. James T. Greely (talk) 13:31, 13 October 2009 (UTC)~~Scibaby sock>[reply]

The discussion above is closed. Please do not modify it. Subsequent comments should be made on the appropriate discussion page. No further edits should be made to this discussion.

climate science for dummies

can we learn from this approach that the geneticists have helpfully provided? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Introduction_to_genetics Andrewjlockley (talk) 23:17, 13 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

2009 global temps

I just came across this article about winter forecasts in the US, and most of it doesn't concern this article. However, the last paragraph reads:

NOAA also announced on Thursday that globally September was the second warmest month in 130 years of recordkeeping, just behind 2005. World temperatures last month averaged 60.1 degrees Fahrenheit (15.6 degrees Celsius), which is 1.1 degrees (0.6 degrees Celsius) above normal. Three-quarters of the way through the year, 2009 is lining up to be the sixth warmest year on record.

This seems to support claims that global warming is indeed still happening. Is this, especially the part about September being the second warmest month since recordkeeping began, worth a mention in the article, or in a related article if not this one? Tim meh 20:33, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

This falls into the same trap as those who think global warming is over because it's been a chilly June or because winter ice extend is the same in ne month as it was in the same month 30 years ago. The key is the multi-decade rising trend in global temperatures, during which of course some years are cooler than others. The trend is still there. --TS 20:46, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

See FAQ #3. Ignignot (talk) 21:12, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Ah, I see. Thanks for pointing that out; it makes my comments look a bit stupid! Tim meh 21:58, 15 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

If you knew everything already, then why would you be reading an encyclopedia? No worries. Ignignot (talk) 13:42, 16 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Ice Core Data

I'm skeptical about AGW and have read about ice core data, if closely examined, show CO2 levels rising hundreds of years after temperatures rise. Before digging up references, I'm sure there is a standard response to this which I'd like to hear. [Soapboxing deleted - WMC] Rkcannon (talk) 05:54, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Where have you read about the ice core data? I would like to look at this. The problem isn't there is not listening by many of the climate scientists, it is there is always an "explanation" when the data doesn't fit the model... El Nino, La Nina, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, aerosols, etc. etc.....warming or cooling, they have it covered. And then they will say they already explained this long ago, and we already knew that is was going to cool before it was going to warm, etc. etc. For this article, it seems like it would be best to add a peer reviewed article indicating the data, and then see what happens. It will likely be deleted, but at least you did your bit for science. Subsumee (talk) 06:12, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

[22] or [23]. I've trimmed your question to remove the inflammatory "groupthink" on the assumption that you were actually interested in the ice core data William M. Connolley (talk) 08:00, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

And internally, Attribution of recent climate change#Warming sometimes leads CO2 increases William M. Connolley (talk) 08:01, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

It’s also covered briefly in Global warming controversy under the Greenhouse gases section.--CurtisSwain (talk) 08:46, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Q: Should this go into the FAQ? --Stephan Schulz (talk) 09:32, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

A: Yes, it is a common question and IMO a compelling one for those who do not know the details differences between Milakovitch-driven glacial cycles and present-day warming (i.e., which of multiple variables are doing the forcing). Awickert (talk) 09:47, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

A picture: [24]. Dragons flight (talk) 09:48, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Yes, a nice FAQ about this would be helpful if someone with sufficient knowledge wants to take the time to do that.--CurtisSwain (talk) 10:48, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I mainly use New Zealand Climate Science web site. (http://www.climatescience.org.nz/) Based on the blogs and responses posted above by WMC, it is confirmed that CO2 could be lagging the temp increase by a few hundred years, 800 +- 800 potentially. This further demonstates lack of understanding because it is also admitted that the initial driver of the temperature changes or the CO2 changes is not known, and it is certainly not man. These unknowns are rarely mentioned but should be the main focus of discussion IMO. To me it does not support the theory that CO2 is a significant driver of climate change because one should see a rise in CO2 followed by a rise in temperatures, not the reverse or no effect at all, going back 100k+ years. —Preceding unsigned comment added by Rkcannon (talk • contribs) 13:28, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You're welcome to use whatever sources you want to for your personal entertainment. But New Zealand Climate Science is not a scientific organization, but pure propaganda, run by a list of well-known contrarians. I suggest you read some real science, like the IPCC reports, the statements of the major academies of science, or, if you like to stay local, the pages of the Royal Society of New Zealand here. --Stephan Schulz (talk) 13:49, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

So far I have not used anything from that site in this discussion, only what WMC provided, except I admit it has colored my thinking. I also like to look at both sides. Restricting myself to "real science" from certain sites only can lead to groupthink as I said before it was deleted. But the points raised I think are still valid. I have no connection to either side of the argument. Rkcannon (talk) 14:16, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

You might enjoy Dr. Hansen's paper Climate change and trace gases where he says that the ice core data is wrong. His claim is that, if the data was correct, then the CO2 would "warm the upper kilometre of the ocean by approximately 160 C". Q Science (talk) 15:01, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

What, specifically, do you mean by "wrong"? All data and all interpretations are "wrong" in some sense. Short Brigade Harvester Boris (talk) 15:06, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

He says that the increases in CO2 actually happened at the same time as, or slightly before, the increases in temperature, even though the data presented in all the other studies indicates that the CO2 concentration increased several hundred to several thousand years after the temperature increases. So, that is what I meant by wrong. Q Science (talk) 15:34, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I am disinclined to believe Dr. Hansen on this one, especially since all he says is that "two events 800 yr apart and with 1 kyr error bars are nearly synchronous" which is an interesting use of a PDF and dodges the lead/lag issue in question, and because of my general distrust of him on using real data since he was telling everyone a few years ago that sea level would rise on the order of [insert Laurentide Ice Sheet collapse sea level rise figure here]. Also, he has no mechanism for CO2 to vary and lead temperature in such a predictable pattern as Milankovitch cycles provide, which could be because he doesn't seem to touch on this issue too much in my skimming of the paper - it is clearly not the main point of the article. Since we know that temperature rises can lead to the release of CO2 from certain reservoirs, I would not be alone in saying that temperature and CO2 are simply coupled and can interchangably lead or lag. In the Pleistocene, quite a few geologists (including myself) would say that CO2 served to amplify Milankovitch cyclicity and cause the temperature swings that resulted in the glacial and interglacial periods. Awickert (talk) 17:15, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I worked through that paper (for the superficial meaning of "working through" of a non-specialist with limited time) some time ago. It's been a while, but IIRC his claim is about one particular termination that seems to show a 5000 year lag. He accepts that "forcing and temperature change had to be synchronous within a few centuries" (which agrees with the commonly cited 800+/-200 years). --Stephan Schulz (talk) 17:33, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I agree with you (Stephan), however I have yet to find the place where Q Science states that, "the increases in CO2 actually happened at the same time as, or slightly before, the increases in temperature". As a matter of fact (and now that I read the paper more I become less skeptical of Hansen's work), he contradicts what Q Science says by saying "The temperature change appears to usually lead the gas changes by typically several hundred years, as discussed below and indicated in ﬁgure 1b. This suggests that warming climate causes a net release of these GHGs by the ocean, soils and biosphere. GHGs are thus a powerful ampliﬁer of climate change, comparable to the surface albedo feedback, as quantiﬁed below. The GHGs, because they change almost simultaneously with the climate, are a major ‘cause’ of glacial-to-interglacial climate change, as shown below, even if, as seems likely, they slightly lag the climate change and thus are not the initial instigator of change," which I find to be very much satisfactory, Awickert (talk) 17:56, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I'm always amazed at how many members of the public (i.e. non-climate-scientists) feel that they have just thought out, or found out, or stumbled across the crucial scientific fact that all the world's experts have systematically missed for years or decades. In creationist circles, as noted in a short thread above, the same thing happened for a while over evolution. Yet it never happens in other areas of science (some where there is possibly more of a chance of a member of the public finding or thinking out something new, like entomology, or string theory, or hypersensitivity). The best thing here is the FAQ page, which apart from answering the question, by being pre-prepared also proves to each asker that they're not the first to think of it. --Nigelj (talk) 16:10, 18 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

[Soapboxing deleted - CI]

(Reply to Nigelj) Actually, it doesn't surprise me, and I think it's a natural reaction to the amount of shoddy partisan reporting that is done on the topic of global warming. Most people know little about the science of global warming, but all the non-scientists I've talked to have done a little bit of interested research. I think that the poor communication about the science behind global warming leads to people questioning the world around them and what they are told - which is a fantastic thing IMO - but leads to a number of intuitive objections to global warming which are not addressed in most readily-available resources. The FAQ here is an excellent source, but unfortunately by the time people land themselves on Wiki, they have rather entrenched views and have drawn the battle lines. So I guess this is more a philosophical reply to a philosophical question and not so directly related to this page, but I think I might ask some of my non-scientist friends (who lie across the political spectrum) if they'd mind reading through a few climate articles on Wiki and giving me feedback on what they do and don't feel satisfied about in the knowledge that they acquired in reading the articles. Awickert (talk) 07:15, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

"Cooling" on the global warming consensus

This news feature gives an excellent summary of how the current consensus on global warming seems to be crumbling:

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/10/13/ED7O1A4IQU.DTL

Could someone please add this to the "Debate and skepticism" section of this article? TS Handon (talk) 03:22, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Handon, I have added several edits trying to explain why you will not be able to amend the article and that if you want to improve the article you first have to fight the censorship endemic in this article. But those comments were removed and I have been threatened with removal if I try again to tell you about that censorship. 88.110.76.120 (talk) 15:56, 22 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

I think you need to look at WP:weight and Scientific opinion on climate change to understand why the article you're citing holds nothing relevant for this page. But, feel free to add Piers Corbyn to the List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming. Easterbrook is already listed and Carlin isn't a scientist.--CurtisSwain (talk) 06:44, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

And Corbyn is yet another weather man with airs of academe. Simonm223 (talk) 15:26, 20 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Precipitation rates

"TAIPEI (AFP) – Global warming will cause the amount of heavy rain dumped on Taiwan to triple over the next 20 years.... Data showing the incidence of heavy rain has doubled in the past 45 years, coinciding with a global rise in temperatures, said Liu Shaw-chen of Taiwan's leading research institute Academia Sinica...." -- http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/taiwanclimatewarmingtyphoon

Presumably, additional heating induces more evaporation and transpiration, so does the global projection for total aggregate precipitation vary in proportion to temperature linearly? How much more total precipitation is associated with a 1 degree C. increase in temperature? 99.60.3.23 (talk) 06:59, 19 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

No-one else has stepped up (Boris?) so I will. Precip does not vary linearly with T, more like exponentially (so how much extra precip is assoc with 1 oC depends on what your base T is). Local precip will vary much more than global. You might find fig 10.6 of chapter 10 helpful: http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter10.pdf William M. Connolley (talk) 09:51, 20 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Global warming will spur growth of forests

http://www.nytimes.com/gwire/2009/10/20/20greenwire-global-warming-could-spur-growth-in-northwest-43219.html

This NYTimes reference provides a good summary of predicted increased growth of forests, due to global warming. Suggestions on where to add this? Tom Dietz (talk) 06:18, 22 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Stick to peer-reviewed articles that are Critically Important, don't rely on Broadcast And Bulletin media, else You become Stale and Old hat—Content is King. -Atmoz (talk) 07:02, 22 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

Right. You’ll need the original piece as published in Forest Ecology and Management. However, the scope of the study appears to be too narrow for this article as it only concerns the Pacifc Northwest. But, it might be of some value to Effects of global warming and/or Regional effects of global warming.--CurtisSwain (talk) 09:09, 22 October 2009 (UTC)[reply]

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[13] The Saga of Erik the Red, 1880, English translation by J. Sephton, from the original Eiríks saga rauða.

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[30] ttp://commerce.senate.gov/pdf/reiter-042606.pdf

[31] ttp://www.opinionjournal.com/extra/?id=110008597

[32] ttp://www.independent.co.uk/environment/climate-change/obamas-climate-guru-paint-your-roof-white-1691209.html

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@@ Line 538: / Line 538: @@
 Could someone please add this to the "Debate and skepticism" section of this article? [[User:TS Handon|TS Handon]] ([[User talk:TS Handon|talk]]) 03:22, 19 October 2009 (UTC)
+::Handon, I have added several edits trying to explain why you will not be able to amend the article and that if you want to improve the article you first have to fight the censorship endemic in this article. But those comments were removed and I have been threatened with removal if I try again to tell you about that censorship. [[Special:Contributions/88.110.76.120|88.110.76.120]] ([[User talk:88.110.76.120|talk]]) 15:56, 22 October 2009 (UTC)
 : I think you need to look at [[WP:weight]] and [[Scientific opinion on climate change]] to understand why the article you're citing holds nothing relevant for this page.  But, feel free to add [[Piers Corbyn]] to the [[List of scientists opposing the mainstream scientific assessment of global warming]].  [[Don Easterbrook|Easterbrook]] is already listed and [[Alan Carlin|Carlin]] isn't a scientist.--[[User:CurtisSwain|CurtisSwain]] ([[User talk:CurtisSwain|talk]]) 06:44, 19 October 2009 (UTC)