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==Registered parties==
==Registered parties==
18 parties are registered with the [[New South Wales Electoral Commission]] (NSWEC), and all may run candidates at the 2019 state election:<ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/Funding-and-disclosure/public-register-and-lists/Register-of-Parties/State-Register-of-Parties |title=State Register of Parties |date=17 January 2019 |publisher=NSW Electorial Commission |accessdate=20 January 2019}}</ref>
18 parties are registered with the [[New South Wales Electoral Commission]] (NSWEC) <ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/Funding-and-disclosure/public-register-and-lists/Register-of-Parties/State-Register-of-Parties |title=State Register of Parties |date=17 January 2019 |publisher=NSW Electorial Commission |accessdate=20 January 2019}}</ref>. All eighteen parties have nominated candidates for the Legislative Council. <ref>{{cite web |url=https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/NSWEC/media/NSWEC/SGE%202019/ballot-papers/LC_Ballot_Paper_NSW_2019.pdf |title=New South Wales 2019 Election - Legislative Council – Ballot Paper |date=8 March 2019 |publisher=NSW Electorial Commission |accessdate=10 March 2019}}</ref>
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Revision as of 11:41, 10 March 2019

2019 New South Wales state election
← 2015 23 March 2019
All 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly
and 21 (of the 42) seats in the Legislative Council
47 Assembly seats are needed for a majority
Opinion polls
 
Leader Gladys Berejiklian Michael Daley
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor
Leader since 23 January 2017 10 November 2018
Leader's seat Willoughby Maroubra
Last election 54 seats 34 seats
Current seats 52 seats[a] 34 seats
Seats needed Steady Increase13
2015 TPP 54.32% 45.68%
TPP polling 49% 51%
 
Leader No leader No leader
Party Greens Shooters, Fishers and Farmers
Last election 3 seats 0 seats
Current seats 3 seats 1 seat
Seats needed Increase44 Increase46
Incumbent Premier

Gladys Berejiklian
Liberal/National coalition



The 2019 New South Wales state election will be held on Saturday, 23 March 2019 to elect the 57th Parliament of New South Wales, including all 93 seats in the Legislative Assembly and 21 of the 42 seats in the Legislative Council.

The two-term incumbent Liberal/National Coalition government, led by Premier Gladys Berejiklian, will attempt to win a third four-year term and will be challenged by the Labor opposition, led by Opposition Leader Michael Daley. Also contesting the election are two minor parties defending seats on the crossbench, the Greens and the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, as well as three independent MPs. A win for the Coalition would mark the first time a Coalition government has won a third consecutive term in office in the state since the 1971 state election.

New South Wales has compulsory voting, with an optional preferential ballot in single-member seats for the lower house and single transferable vote with optional preferential above-the-line voting in the proportionally represented upper house. The election will be conducted by the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC).

Date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms with the election to be held on the fourth Saturday in March,[1] though the Governor may dissolve the house sooner on the advice of the Premier.

Key dates

Key dates for the election are:[2]

  • 25 February: Lodgment of nominations open
  • 1 March: Legislative Assembly expires
  • 4 March: Issue of Writs
  • 6 March: Close of nominations
  • 11 March: Early voting begins
  • 23 March: Election day (polls open 8am to 6pm)
  • 27 March: Last day for receipt of postal votes
  • 3 April: Estimated Legislative Assembly declaration of results
  • 12 April: Estimated Legislative Council declaration of results

Background

2015 election – lower house

At the 2015 election, the Coalition retained government with a reduced majority of 54 seats from 69 seats in the 2011 election. In the course of the previous parliamentary term, the Coalition had been reduced to 61 seats due to ICAC proceedings that resulted in the departure of eight MPs from the Liberal Party. The Labor Party gained 11 seats at the election, for a total of 34 seats. The Greens gained a record three seats whilst independents Greg Piper and Alex Greenwich both retained their seats.

2015 election – upper house

The 2015 election saw the incumbent Liberal/National coalition gain one seat in the Legislative Council to have a total of 20 seats, despite a 5.1-point swing against them. The Labor Party lost two seats, bringing their total down to 12; the Greens, Shooters and Fishers, and Christian Democrats saw no gains or losses in the election: these parties won five seats, two seats and two seats, respectively. The only gain came from the Animal Justice Party.

By-elections held since 2015 election

Several by-elections were held after the 2015 election. In most of these, the party holding the seat did not change. There were two exceptions to this. In the 2016 Orange by-election, Philip Donato of the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party won the seat, previously held by the Nationals. In the 2018 Wagga Wagga by-election, independent candidate Joe McGirr won the seat, previously held by the Liberal Party.

Marginal seat pendulum

Main article: Pre-election pendulum for the New South Wales state election, 2019

Polling

Graphical summary

Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. A local regression trend is shown in a solid line.

Polling tables

Legislative Assembly polling
Date Firm Primary vote TPP vote
LIB NAT ALP GRN ONP OTH L/NP ALP
10 March 2019 ReachTel[3][4] 28.7% 7.0% 34.1% 9.6% 5.6% 10.4%[b] 49% 51%
18 February 2019 Essential[5] 39% 36% 9% 8% 9% 49% 51%
30 January 2019 Newspoll[6] 39% 36% 10% 6% 9% 50% 50%
29–30 November 2018 YouGov-Galaxy[7] 37% 39% 9% 8% 15% 48% 52%
29 November 2018* Fairfax-ReachTEL[8] 36.5% 34.1% 9.6% 7.5% 16.6% 49% 51%
10 November 2018 Michael Daley succeeds Luke Foley as leader of the Labor Party
7 November 2018 Mark Latham is named as leader of One Nation NSW
10 September 2018* Fairfax-ReachTEL[9] 35.1% 31.5% 10.5% 4.2% 17.3% 50% 50%
15 March 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL[10] 41.9% 32.5% 9.4% 5.1% 10% 52% 48%
6 March 2018 Newspoll 38% 34% 11% 17% 50% 50%
October–December 2017 Essential[11] 40% 39% 9% 12% 49% 51%
5 October 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL[12] 37.6% 31% 9.1% 22.3% 52% 48%
February–March 2017 Newspoll[13] 40% 34% 10% 16% 51% 49%
23 January 2017 Gladys Berejiklian becomes Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
19 January 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL[14] 42.7% 28% 8.4% 20.9% 55% 45%
18 January 2017 Mike Baird announces resignation as Liberal leader and New South Wales Premier
December 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL[15] 40.6% 32.4% 8% 19% 53% 47%
October 2016 Roy Morgan[16] 37% 31.5% 14% 17.5% 48.5% 51.5%
August–September 2016 Newspoll[17] 42% 36% 11% 11% 51% 49%
August 2016 Roy Morgan[18] 39% 30.5% 13% 17.5% 50.5% 49.5%
27 August 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL[19] 39.4% 34.9% 8% 9.6% 50% 50%
May 2016 Roy Morgan[20] 46% 29% 17% 8% 53.5% 46.5%
March 2016 Roy Morgan[21] 46% 27% 15.5% 11.5% 55% 45%
29 Jan – 1 February 2016 Roy Morgan[22] 52% 24.5% 14.5% 9% 59.5% 40.5%
4–7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan[23] 52% 22.5% 15% 10.5% 60.5% 39.5%
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan[24] 54% 24.5% 13.5% 8% 60.5% 39.5%
September 2015 Newspoll[25] 47% 33% 11% 9% 56% 44%
28–31 Aug 2015 Roy Morgan[26] 49%* 25% 17.5% 8.5% 57% 43%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan[27] 49.5%* 27.5% 14% 9% 57% 43%
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan[28] 53.5%* 29.5% 12% 5% 58.5% 41.5%
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan[29] 47.5%* 31.0% 12.5% 9.0% 54.5% 45.5%
28 March 2015 election 35.1% 10.5% 34.1% 10.3% 9.9% 54.3% 45.7%
23–26 March 2015 Newspoll[30] 35% 9% 34% 11% 11% 55% 45%[31]
* Indicates a combined Liberal/National primary vote.
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here [1]
  • The ReachTEL poll on 10 September 2018 includes 5.9% of undecided voters.
  • The ReachTEL poll on 29 November 2018 includes 3.1% of undecided voters.
  • The YouGov-Galaxy poll on 28-29 November 2018 includes 5% of undecided voters.
Better Premier and satisfaction polling*
8 November 2018 Foley resigns as Leader of the Opposition Berejiklian Daley Berejiklian Daley
Date Firm Better Premier Berejiklian Foley
Berejiklian Foley Satisfied Dissatisfied Satisfied Dissatisfied
10 September 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 49.8% 50.2% not asked
6 March 2018 Newspoll 43% 25% not asked
15 March 2018 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.3% 47.7% not asked
5 October 2017 Fairfax-ReachTEL 52.1% 47.9% not asked
February–March 2017 Newspoll 43% 21% 44% 21% 32% 36%
23 January 2017 Berejiklian replaces Baird Baird Foley Baird Foley
December 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 50.6% 49.4% not asked
October 2016 Roy Morgan 52.5% 47.5% not asked
29 September 2016 Newspoll 42% 24% 39% 46% 32% 39%
27 August 2016 Fairfax-ReachTEL 48.7% 51.3% not asked
29 Jan – 1 February 2016 Roy Morgan 72% 28% not asked
4–7 Dec 2015 Roy Morgan 72.5% 27.5% not asked
16 October 2015 Roy Morgan 74.5% 25.5% not asked
September 2015 Newspoll 57% 19% 63% 24% 35% 37%
25 June 2015 Roy Morgan 70% 30% not asked
27 May 2015 Roy Morgan 70.5% 29.5% not asked
15 April 2015 Roy Morgan 68% 32% not asked
28 March 2015 election – – – – – – –
23–26 Mar 2015 Newspoll 54% 27% 57% 29% 38% 37%
* Remainder were "uncommitted" or "other/neither".
Newspoll polling is published in The Australian and sourced from here [2]

Retiring MPs

Members who have chosen not to renominate for the next election are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Registered parties

18 parties are registered with the New South Wales Electoral Commission (NSWEC) [44]. All eighteen parties have nominated candidates for the Legislative Council. [45]

Campaign

On March 3, The Labor Party launched their official campaign with Federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten.[46]

Issues

The incumbent Liberal government plans to continue with the demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium and, if re-elected, to replace it with a new $730 million venue.[47] The Labor Party oppose the demolition.[48]

Debates

The first debate of the campaign was held on 8 March on the ABC. It featured Premier Gladys Berejiklian and Opposition Leader Michael Daley, and was moderated by Brigid Glanville.[49] Subjects discussed included the demolition of the Sydney Football Stadium, cost of living in Sydney, transportation, infrastructure, and the Murray–Darling basin. In their final remarks, Berejiklian pledged to continue the current course and finish pending projects, while Daley emphasized his commitment to regional voters and promised assistance for dairy farmers.[50]

Preferences

In February 2019, it was reported that Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party and Pauline Hanson's One Nation are sending preferences each other's way in the upper house.[51]

Labor leader Michael Daley said the party's head office, instead of the leader's, would decide preference deals on a "seat-by-seat basis". While refusing to rule out the ALP dealing with the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers, Mr Daley said Labor would not accept a preference deal with One Nation "because they are a racist party".[52]

See also

Notes

  1. ^ This figure includes the seat of Wollondilly, which was made vacant on 17 December 2018 by the resignation of Jai Rowell of the Liberal Party.
  2. ^ 5.8% Other, 4.6% SFF

References

  1. ^ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  2. ^ https://www.elections.nsw.gov.au/Elections/State-Government-Elections/2019-NSW-State-General-Election
  3. ^ Tovey, Josephine (17 February 2019). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 February 2019.
  4. ^ Smith, Alexandra (9 March 2019). "Sentiment may seem clear but NSW is still the Coalition's to lose". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  5. ^ Tovey, Josephine (17 February 2019). "Essential poll shows one in four NSW voters opting for minor parties". The Guardian. ISSN 0261-3077. Retrieved 18 February 2019.
  6. ^ "Gladys Berejiklian facing minority government after NSW election: Newspoll". Retrieved 30 January 2019.
  7. ^ "Berejiklian set to lose as internal Liberal chaos derails election hopes". Daily Telegraph. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
  8. ^ Smith, Alexandra. "Berejiklian set to lose as internal Liberal chaos derails election hopes". Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 1 December 2018.
  9. ^ Smith, Alexandra. "VCoalition neck and neck with Labor as Foley overtakes Berejiklian". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 23 September 2018.
  10. ^ Smith, Alexandra. "Voter revolt on stadiums poses threat to Premier". The Canberra Times. Retrieved 18 March 2018.
  11. ^ Karp, Paul. "Gladys Berejiklian's Coalition trails Labor in Guardian Essential polls". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 January 2018.
  12. ^ "Poll shows Gladys Berejiklian holding her own but minor parties on the march". ReachTEL. 9 October 2017.
  13. ^ "Newspoll: Gladys Berejiklian in strong start to NSW premiership". Newspoll. 7 April 2017.
  14. ^ "ReachTEL: 55–45 to Coalition in New South Wales". Crikey. 20 January 2017.
  15. ^ "Fairfax-ReachTel poll shows NSW premier Mike Baird bouncing back". Fairfax-ReachTel. 3 December 2016.
  16. ^ "Baird Government drops behind for first time in NSW; Barnett in trouble in Western Australia while Andrews Government still riding high in Victoria despite CFA union dispute". Roy Morgan Research. 10 October 2016.
  17. ^ "Newspoll: Dogs ban sends Mike Baird ratings into freefall". Newspoll. 29 September 2016.
  18. ^ "Now 'too close to call' in New South Wales as Baird support slips while ALP has slight lead in Western Australia and a clear lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. 8 September 2016.
  19. ^ "Support for Mike Baird's government collapses: exclusive poll". The Sydney Morning Herald. 27 August 2016. Retrieved 27 August 2016.
  20. ^ "L-NP in front in NSW & WA and ALP well in front in Victoria but parties dead-level in Queensland after LNP elect new Leader Tim Nicholls". Roy Morgan Research. 1 June 2016.
  21. ^ "ALP increases support in all Australian States. Queensland electors narrowly turn down new election after Referendum on 4-year terms successful". Roy Morgan Research. 1 April 2016.
  22. ^ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) increases support in South Australia while L-NP well in front in NSW and ALP holds solid lead in Victoria". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 3 February 2016. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  23. ^ "Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) scores highly in South Australia while ALP vote down in Victoria but still maintains strong lead". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. 8 December 2015. Retrieved 4 March 2016.
  24. ^ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States are close". Roy Morgan Research. Roy Morgan Research. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
  25. ^ "Newspoll" (PDF). The Australian. 25 September 2015. Retrieved 25 September 2015.
  26. ^ "Popular Premiers Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while other States except Tasmania are close". Roy Morgan Research. 3 September 2015. Retrieved 3 September 2015.
  27. ^ "Mike Baird & Daniel Andrews have large leads in NSW & Victoria while Annastacia Palaszczuk regains lead in Queensland". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  28. ^ "Honeymoons continue for NSW Premier Baird & Victorian Premier Andrews while the honeymoon is over for Queensland Premier Palaszczuk". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  29. ^ "NSW Premier Mike Baird enjoys clear honeymoon lead; Voters in Queensland back Premier Palaszczuk after strong stance on Billy Gordon". Roy Morgan. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  30. ^ http://resources.news.com.au/files/2015/03/27/1227281/937840-150328poll.pdf
  31. ^ Preference allocation based on previous election. Respondent-allocated vote was 52% L/NP, 48% ALP
  32. ^ Sas, Nick (9 November 2018). "Luke Foley says he won't re-contest, with battle for NSW Labor leadership now between two". Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
  33. ^ Bunn, Anthony (1 August 2018). "Member for Albury Greg Aplin has opted not to stand in next year's NSW election due to health concerns". The Border Mail.
  34. ^ Costin, Luke (4 August 2018). "Two scandals in one term: MP won't recontest south-western Sydney seat". The Sydney Morning Herald.
  35. ^ Glanville, Brigid (19 December 2018). "NSW Minister Pru Goward announces retirement from politics". ABC News. Retrieved 19 December 2018.
  36. ^ Dickins, Roma; Layt, Jess (28 September 2018). "Chris Patterson announces he will not contest Camden seat at March election". Campbelltown-Macarthur Advertiser.
  37. ^ Zautsen, Daniel (15 February 2018). "Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell announces retirement". The Daily Telegraph.
  38. ^ "Wollondilly MP Jai Rowell officially steps down". Camden-Narellan Advertiser. 17 December 2018. Retrieved 31 December 2018.
  39. ^ Kirkwood, Ian (12 November 2018). "Catherine Cusack rolls Scot MacDonald in state Liberal upper house preselection". Lakes Mail.
  40. ^ Deans, Matt (14 June 2018). "Andrew Fraser to retire at the 2019 State Election". Coffs Coast Advocate.
  41. ^ Broome, Hamish (30 June 2017). "Lismore MP Thomas George announces retirement". Northern Star. Retrieved 30 June 2017.
  42. ^ "Troy Grant, NSW Minister for Police, will not contest the next election". ABC News. 12 July 2018. Retrieved 13 July 2018.
  43. ^ Druce, Alex (1 June 2017). "NSW Nationals MP Kevin Humphries won't recontest Barwon at the 2019 election". The Land.
  44. ^ "State Register of Parties". NSW Electorial Commission. 17 January 2019. Retrieved 20 January 2019.
  45. ^ "New South Wales 2019 Election - Legislative Council – Ballot Paper" (PDF). NSW Electorial Commission. 8 March 2019. Retrieved 10 March 2019.
  46. ^ https://www.sbs.com.au/news/daley-will-stand-for-people-shorten
  47. ^ Hinds, Offsiders columnist Richard (8 March 2019). "Sydney stadium debate more to do with blood politics than sport". ABC News. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  48. ^ Haydar, Nour (5 March 2019). "Alan Jones told on air he'll be sacked from SCG Trust if Labor wins election". ABC News. Retrieved 9 March 2019.
  49. ^ "NSW Votes: Leaders' Debate, Friday 8 March". ABC. 7 March 2019. Retrieved 8 March 2019.
  50. ^ "Fiery NSW election leaders debate, Gladys Berejiklian tells Michael Daley 'just be honest'". ABC. 8 March 2019. Retrieved 8 March 2019.
  51. ^ One Nation; Shooters, Fishers and Farmers form election deal Parkes Champion Post 5 February 2019
  52. ^ O'Sullivan, Alexandra Smith, Matt (3 February 2019). "Berejiklian rules out deal with Shooters Party to hold power". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 March 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
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