2024 United States Senate election in Montana
 | |||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
| |||||||
| Elections in Montana |
|---|
 |
The 2024 United States Senate election in Montana will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Montana. Incumbent three-term Democratic Senator Jon Tester is seeking re-election to a fourth term in office. He was last re-elected in 2018, with 50.3% of the vote. Tester is one of three Democratic senators up for re-election in states that Donald Trump won in both 2016 and 2020, alongside Senators Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Tester's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[1]
Background
Montana is a strongly red state at the federal level, voting for Republican presidential candidates since 1996, when Bob Dole beat Bill Clinton by nearly 3 percentage points in a three-way race with Ross Perot. Since then, GOP candidates have won the White House race in the State by double digits. In the most recent presidential election, in 2020, Donald Trump beat the Democratic candidate Joe Biden by 56.92% to 40.55%. For all these reasons, the race is expected to be one of the most competitive of the 2024 cycle, as Tester is broadly popular with Montana voters despite the state's partisan lean,[2] and Montana's historical inclination to ticket-split.[3]
On April 4, 2023, the Montana State Senate passed a bill to institute a top-two primary system, but only for the 2024 U.S. Senate race. The bill's sponsor, Republican Greg Hertz, said it would require the winner of the 2024 Senate race to receive a majority of the vote. Incumbent Democrat Jon Tester won with a plurality of the vote in his 2006 and 2012 Senate campaigns, though he won a majority in 2018. Both Democrats and Libertarians decried the bill as a "partisan power grab" and claimed it was intended to prevent the Libertarian Party from placing a nominee on the general election ballot in the Senate race who could potentially pull votes away from the Republican nominee.[4][5] FiveThirtyEight's Nathaniel Rakich questioned whether the Libertarian Party had truly cost Republicans the 2006 and 2012 races, pointing out that Republicans would have needed to win the Libertarian vote overwhelmingly in order to beat Tester in a one-on-one race and that many Libertarians might not have voted in the race at all without a Libertarian on the ballot.[6]
The New York Times reported that the bill was the brainchild of Montana's other Senator Steve Daines, the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and that his allies urged Republican state senators to support it; one legislator said they were outright told by Republican officials that the bill was intended to weaken Tester. After the bill received backlash, Hertz introduced an amendment to make the use of a top-two primary for U.S. Senate elections permanent rather than sunsetting it after the 2024 race.[7] The Montana House of Representatives State Administration Committee tabled the bill on April 19.[8] An attempt to revive the bill failed, and the legislature adjourned without passing it, conclusively ending the push for a top-two primary.[9]
Democratic primary
Candidates
Declared
- Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator (2007–present)[10]
Endorsements
Republican primary
Candidates
Declared
- Tim Sheehy, founder and CEO of Bridger Aerospace and retired Navy SEAL[15]
Publicly expressed interest
- Austin Knudsen, Attorney General of Montana (2021–present) and 53rd Speaker of the Montana House of Representatives (2015–2019)[16]
- Matt Rosendale, U.S. Representative from Montana's 2nd congressional district (2023–present) and at-large district (2021–2023); nominee for U.S. Senate in 2018[17]
Endorsements
- U.S. Senators
- Steve Daines, U.S. Senator from Montana (2015–present)[18]
- Tom Cotton, U.S. Senator from Arkansas (2015–present)[19]
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Russell Fagg |
Matt Rosendale |
Tim Sheehy |
Corey Stapleton |
Ryan Zinke |
Other/Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D) | June 19–20, 2023 | 510 (LV) | ± 4.3% | - | 64% | 10% | - | - | 26% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV)[b] | ± 4.0% | 2% | 36% | 2% | 6% | 26% | 28% |
General election
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[20] | Tossup | June 27, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[21] | Battleground | January 6, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] | Tossup | January 24, 2023 |
| Decision Desk HQ[23] | Tossup | May 4, 2023 |
Polling
- Jon Tester vs. Greg Gianforte
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Greg Gianforte (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
- Jon Tester vs. Matt Rosendale
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Matt Rosendale (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OnMessage Inc. (R) | February 18–21, 2023 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 41% | 46% | 5% | 7% |
| Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 40% | – | 15% |
- Jon Tester vs. Ryan Zinke
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Jon Tester (D) |
Ryan Zinke (R) |
Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Political Company (R) | January 30 – February 1, 2023 | 534 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Notes
References
- ^ Everett, Burgess. "GOP eyes 2024 payback for Manchin's Dems-only deal". Politico. Retrieved August 29, 2022.
- ^ Yokley, Eli (April 19, 2023). "Red-State Voters Give Democrats Tester, Manchin Opposite Marks Ahead of 2024". Morning Consult. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- ^ Coleman, J. Miles (February 2, 2023). "The Shocking Decline of Senate Ticket-Splitting". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved April 27, 2023.
- ^ "Senate passes bill creating top-two primary in Tester's 2024 U.S. Senate race".
- ^ "Republicans seek to change Montana primary to thwart Tester".
- ^ "The GOP Is Trying To Tilt Montana's Senate Race In Its Favor. It Probably Won't Work".
- ^ "Facing Tough Senate Race, Montana G.O.P. Looks to Change the Rules".
- ^ "Montana shelves GOP proposal to alter US Senate primary".
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections Live Digest: 5/3".
- ^ Concepcion, Summer (February 22, 2023). "Sen. Jon Tester to seek re-election in 2024". NBC News. Retrieved February 22, 2023.
- ^ Everett, Burgess (April 7, 2023). "Montana beef: Bad blood intensifies between Tester and Daines". Politico. Retrieved April 8, 2023.
Manchin is backing Tester and has tried to stop senator-vs.-senator campaign appearances, even previously endorsing two moderate Republicans.
- ^ "AIPAC rolls out first 2024 endorsements, including vulnerable Senate Democrats". March 16, 2023.
- ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorses Senator Tester for Reelection". March 30, 2023.
- ^ "2024 – Feminist Majority PAC". feministmajoritypac.org. Retrieved April 11, 2023.
- ^ Warren, Bradley (June 27, 2023). "Tim Sheehy announces run for U.S. Senate in Montana". KULR-8 Local News. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ^ Holt, Matt (February 2, 2023). "Montana machinations: How Republicans are preparing to take on Jon Tester". National Journal. Retrieved February 3, 2023.
- ^ Mutnick, Ally; Everett, Burgess (June 23, 2023). "Conservative rabble-rouser Matt Rosendale plans rematch against Jon Tester". Politico. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ^ McCormack, John (June 27, 2023). "Montana's Steve Daines Endorses Former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy in Senate GOP Primary". The National Review. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ^ Cotton, Tom (June 27, 2023). "Tom Cotton on Twitter". Twitter. Retrieved June 27, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate Race Ratings". Amy Walter. January 24, 2023. Retrieved January 24, 2023.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Inside Elections. January 6, 2023. Retrieved January 10, 2023.
- ^ "2024 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. January 24, 2023. Retrieved February 13, 2023.
- ^ "Election Ratings". Elections Daily. May 23, 2023. Retrieved May 29, 2023.
External links
- Official campaign websites