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2014 Serbian parliamentary election

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Serbian parliamentary election, 2014
← 2012 16 March 2014 2018 →
All 250 seats in the National Assembly
126 seats needed for a majority
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader Aleksandar Vučić Ivica Dačić Dragan Đilas
Party SNS SPS DS
Leader since 2012- 2003- 2012-
Seats won
158 / 250
44 / 250
19 / 250
Seat change Increase 83 Steady Decrease 48
Popular vote - - -
Percentage 48.34% 13.51% 6.04%
  Fourth party
 
Leader Boris Tadić
Party New Democratic Party — Greens
Leader since 2014-
Seats won
18 / 250
Seat change Increase 18
Popular vote -
Percentage 5.71%
Prime Minister before election

Ivica Dačić
SPS

Elected Prime Minister

TBD

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Parliamentary elections were held in Serbia on 16 March 2014. By the constitution and election law, elections could have been held as late as May 2016,[1] but in late January 2014, due to tensions in the ruling coalition, the National Assembly was dissolved and early elections called,[2] to be held at the same time as the Belgrade local election.

Polls unanimously show that the coalition in which the Serbian Progressive Party is a key component has a clear lead; expected to win the minimum required majority of 126 MPs single-handedly.[3] This has not occurred in Serbia since 2000, when another coalition had ousted Slobodan Milošević's government.

Background

Further information: Serbian local election, 2014

Following the last election, the coalition gathered around the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) won a plurality. After two months of negotiations, the Serbian Progressive Party formed a coalition government with the Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS).[4] Ivica Dačić (SPS) became prime minister, while Aleksandar Vučić (SNS) became first deputy prime minister. The former ruling party and now main opposition, Democratic Party (DS), suffered heavy losses in the election but retained a majority in Belgrade, a coveted position in Serbian politics. A internal split within the DS over leadership following the election further weakened its position with Belgrade mayor, Dragan Đilas (DS) losing a non-confidence vote.[5]

With SNS ratings at an all-time high and growing tension within the ruling coalition, first deputy PM Aleksandar Vučić called for early parliamentary elections to be held.[6] Some analysts believe that Vučić holds the most influence in the government.[7] Despite speculation that he would oppose early elections,[citation needed] prime minister Ivica Dačić agreed to hold early parliamentary elections.[8] On 29 January, President Tomislav Nikolić responded to the calls by dissolving parliament and scheduling early elections for 16 March 2014.[9][10]

Electoral system

The National Assembly of the Republic of Serbia is a unicameral parliament with 250 seats. The entire country is a single whole electoral unit, with all votes accumulated together and then MPs allocated in accordance to the D'Hondt method. The electoral threshold is set at 5%. However, electoral lists that are officially submitted as aiming to represent one of the country's registered national minorities have no barrage set. That means that, according to the valid electoral law, such a list needs to win 0.4% of the total votes in order to secure its 1st MP seat.[11]

Despite the rejection of the Kosovan Albanians and in context of the Kosovo problem, the voting will also be organized on the territory of Kosovo, as per UNSCR 1244 (1999) and the Kumanovo Technical Agreement. However they will be handled, and not just overseen, by the OSCE.[12]

A total of 8,262 voting stations have been prepared on the territory of Serbia (excluding Kosovo).[13] On 1 March the RIK had declared that in Serbia there is a total of 6,767,324 eligible voters, which is some twelve thousand less than in 2012.[14] The RIK subsequently formed 90 voting stations for the disputed territory of Kosovo.[15]

Observers

The Center for Free Elections and Democracy, CeSID, will be the only domestic observer. Among the international organizations that Serbia is a member of, neutral observers will come from OSCE's Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights, the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE, OSCE Mission in Serbia, as well as the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe. One international org. Serbia is not a part of has also sent its observes; namely, the Commonwealth of Independent States. Albania and Russia have sent their observing missions from their domestic Commissions, as well as the American, British and Bulgarian embassies in Belgrade. The elections will also be observed by the Common Network of International Observers from Japan.[16]

Electoral lists

The following are the official electoral lists published by the Republic Electoral Commission (RIK).[17]

Ballot number Ballot name Ballot carrier Note
1 Aleksandar Vučić — Future We Believe In (Serbian Progressive Party, Social Democratic Party of Serbia, New Serbia, Serbian Renewal Movement, Movement of Socialists) Aleksandar Vučić
2 Ivica Dačić — Socialist Party of Serbia (SPS), Party of United Pensioners of Serbia (PUPS), United Serbia (JS) Ivica Dačić
3 Democratic Party of Serbia — Vojislav Koštunica Vojislav Koštunica
4 Čedomir Jovanović — LDP, BDZS, SDU Čedomir Jovanović
5 Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians — István Pásztor Bálint Pásztor M
6 Serbian Radical Party — DR Vojislav Šešelj Dr Vojislav Šešelj
7 United Regions of Serbia — Mlađan Dinkić Mlađan Dinkić
8 With the Democratic Party for a Democratic Serbia Dragan Đilas
9 Dveri — Boško Obradović Boško Obradović
10 Party of Democratic Action of Sandžak — Dr Sulejman Ugljanin Dr Sulejman Ugljanin M
11 Boris Tadić — New Democratic Party — Greens, LSV — Nenad Čanak, Together for Serbia, VMDK, Together for Vojvodina, Democratic Left of Roma Miodrag Rakić
12 Third Serbia — For All The Hard-Working People Aleksandar Protić
13 Montenegrin Party — JOSIP BROZ Nenad Stevović M
14 All Together — BDZ — MPSZ — DZH — MRM — MEP — Emir Elfić Emir Elfić M
15 Enough Of That — Saša Radulović Saša Radulović
16 Coalition of Citizens of All Nations and National Communities (RDS—SDS)" Miroslav Besermenji M
17 Civic group "Patriotic Front — Dr. Borislav Pelević" Milica Đurđević
18 Russian Party — Slobodan Nikolić Slobodan Nikolić M
19 Party for Democratic Action — Riza Halimi
 Riza Halimi M

M — National minority list

Candidates

SNS-led coalition

The dominant Progressives have for the election renewed their coalition with the minister Velimir Ilić's party and the socialists of minister Aleksandar Vulin, as it was in the previous election (2012) when President Nikolic headed the coalition. The coalition is though this time joined by Rasim Ljajić's social democrats and Vuk Drašković's monarchists (who along with themselves bring their internal coalition partner, the Christian Democratic Party of Serbia, which was once a partner of the Democratic Party), the former previously running with the opposition Democratic Party and the latter the likewise opposition Liberal Democratic Party. In accordance to the coalition treaty, SPDS is to receive at least 10 seats, NS and the SPO-DHSS coalition individually 5, while PS 3.[18]

The Serbian Strength Movement of the tycoon under criminal charges in flight Bogoljub Karić was at the previous election a coalition partner; this time not being officially so, the list still does contain its members as official candidates.[19] The same is the case with the Coalition of Refugee Associations in the Republic of Serbia,[20] the People's Peasant Party and the Association of Small and Medium Companies and Entrepreneurs of Serbia.[21] Of the several parties of national minorities that ran along the last time, all have broken off cooperation except for the Bosniak People's Party, which has just like Karić's Movement also candidates on the list.[22] SNS' list also contains former prominent Social Democrat Ljiljana Nestorović, and architect Branka Bošnjak (previously in the URS).[23]

The Progressives' list is backed by a party in union with SDPS, the Sandžak Democratic Party, as well as the Sandžak People's Party, which signed an agreement of endorsement.[24] On 9 February, the Civic Initiative of Gora had decided to support SNS,[25] and the next day the same did the Movement of Laborers and Peasants.[26] SNS has also received endorsement from the Dinara-Drina-Danube Movement,[27] the United Peasant Party,[28] as well as its former coalition partner that got 1 MP at the previous election, the Roma Party.[29] Through Ljajic's mediation, by March the Movement of Frontiersmen and the Diaspora had agreed to endorse this electoral list.[30]

In the previous election, the SNS got 55 seats within its coalition, while NS 8 and PS 1. The other minor coalition partners that are present on the list in this election had won in total 6 seats. Of the formerly partners of the opposition; with the Democratic Party, SDPS received 9 seats within its coalition, while DHSS 1; SPO got 4 within its coalition with the Liberal Democratic Party.

SPS-PUPS-JS

The second list is identical to the previous election, the coalition of the three parties led by the now outgoing Prime Minister, around his Socialist Party of Serbia. JS leader Dragan Marković "Palma" announced that JS will this time ask for participation in the government just like SPS and PUPS, rather than just endorsing it like the two previous terms, demanding a minister's position for himself in the future government.[31]

The coalition won a total of 44 seats on the previous election, 24 going to SPS, 12 to PUPS and 7 to JS. SPS does not include the Serbian Veteran Movement as it traditionally did, which broke off in late 2013 due to disagreeing over the most recent Kosovo policies.

Democratic Party of Serbia

The Euroskeptic Democratic Party of Serbia of ex PM Vojislav Koštunica was considering options about the formation of a "Patriotic Bloc" which would stand up to the political elite's dominating pro-EU stance, the coalition being called forth by the Dveri (with the Serbian Radical Party mentioned as a potential third coalition partner) movement. DSS stated that it has chosen not to form a block with other organizations that expressed an interest to because it feels that these organizations have not fully embraced DSS positions and that they merely want to join for the purpose of entering the parliament.[32] DSS officially submitted to the Republic Electoral Commission its candidate electoral list on 6 February.[33]

DSS' list also contains candidates from the Serbian Veteran Movement,[34] a party that was originally SPS' partner but defected in late 2013 due to differences over Kosovo policies, which they perceive as treacherous.[35] PVS received 1 seat of SPS' 25 within the SPS-PUPS-JS coalition, while DSS itself won 21 MPs.

DSS' campaign slogan is I know who I believe — the Democratic Party of Serbia (Serbian Cyrillic: Знам коме верујем — Демократска странка Србије).[36]

LDP-led coalition

The Liberal Democratic Party was originally invited to be a part of ex republic president Boris Tadić's large civic democratic bloc.[37] After rejecting it accusing Boris Tadić for a policy of failure and the past, and failing to attempt to arrange a coalition with LSV (its partner at the 2007 elections and with whom it shares many ideological similarities),[38] LDP had talks for joining Djilas' Democratic Party-led coalition. After those negotiations reached a moot end,[39] LDP finally decided to form its own list. It will go in coalition with the national minority Bosniak Democratic Union of Sandžak,[40] a political party founded the previous year as a fraction of BDU,[41] and LDP's traditional ally, the Social Democratic Union.[42] The Association of Free and Independent Trade Unions has endorsed LDP in this election too.[43]

At the 2012 election, LDP won 13 seats in a coalition, while SDU got 1 MP in the same one.

Hungarian minority

On 8 February the Alliance of Vojvodina Hungarians had submitted its electoral list, thus becoming the first national minority to do so (according to electoral law there is no electoral threshold for national minority lists). SVM leader István Pásztor announced the plan is to secure the five MPs won at the previous election,[44]

Serbian Radical Party

SRS election poster

The ultra-nationalist SRS was invited to become a part of a patriotic bloc by the Dveri movement along with DSS, which it rejected.[45] It decided to gather its own list, which also includes leading members from two extremist organizations: the clerofascist "Srbski Obraz" Movement (which was officially banned by the constitutional court in 2012, a decision that still awaits factual implementation[46]) and the far-right Serbian National Movement "Ours".[47]

The coalition has received an open letter of support from Russian National Bolshevik political scientist Aleksandr Dugin and his International Eurasian Movement.[48]

This list' electoral slogan is: Both Kosovo and Russia (Serbian: И Косово и Русија, I Kosovo i Rusija), satirically based on the dominant "both Kosovo and the EU" doctrine.[49]

Democratic Party

The democratic party, led by Djilas, has announced that it will be in a coalition with the following parties: New Party, the Democratic Union of Vojvodina Croats (DSHV), the United Trade Unions of Serbia Sloga, and Rich Serbia.[50]

As a response to the DLR's coalition with Tadic's New Democratic Party-Greens, DS has announced negotiations with over 20 Romani NGOs and cultural and public laborers, who will endorse the electoral list for a democratic Serbia.[51]

New Democratic Party

Former president Boris Tadic has announced the attempts of creating a democratic bloc: the New Democratic Party, which will be made up of his followers who broke off of the democratic party, LSV, ZZS, some Bosniak and Hungarian minority parties and the Greens.[52]

In early February, the Greens of Serbia had officially decided to elect Tadić as their leader and join NDS, which will be henceforth known as "New Democratic Party - The Greens".[53] NDS-Greens had signed an official coalition mid-February with ZzS and LSV; according to the treaty LSV shall get 6 MPs and ZZS 2, with the option for a 3rd MP for the latter should their common list win more than 10% votes.[54]

PF

Borislav Pelević had dreams of an anti-systematic Patriotic Front. Having it been rejected by the DSS and SRS, Dveri decided to run independently, which made the nationalist politician attempt to form his own coalition from the remaining factors, including:[55]

  • Council of Serbian Unity (Pelevic's party)
  • Serbian Council Patrons
  • National Movement Revival of Serbia
  • Serbian Movement Free Serbia
  • Society of War Veterans, Invalids and the Families of Fell Fighters of Serbia
  • Ravna Gora Movement

Announced candidacies

The opposition will run very fragmented. The key opposition force, Democratic Party, struck by the most recent mid-campaign resignation of honorary party and former republic president Boris Tadić, intends to run in a coalition with: the recently formed New Party of ex PM Zoran Živković, Rich Serbia (which was formerly a coalition partner of the LDP), the Associated Syndicates of Serbia "Concord" and a number of activists for human rights and civic liberties, among whom is also Aida Ćorović.[56]

Former Serbian president and DS long-time leader Tadić broke off a fraction of the party and announced the formation of a New Democratic Party, which would supposedly be loyal to the ideas of his old party, rather than the authoritarian approach of his successor Dragan Đilas (former Belgrade mayor). It will be a broad political alliance of civic and pro-European political parties and movements, including the League of Social Democrats of Vojvodina, Together for Serbia (a political party already formed by braking off from the DS when Đilas took over leadership from Tadić after the 2012 elections), Democratic Party of Vojvodina Hungarians, Greens of Serbia and the "Bosniac Bloc" national minority political alliance led by minister Sulejman Ugljanin.[57]

Tadić's initial plan was to form a broad opposition alliance that would unite under his wing everyone that is neither DS nor DSS, giving a third option with the aim of tapping the mass of the undecided. The Liberal Democratic Party was invited to be a part of his coalition, however LDP has disagreements with Tadic and dismissed him as the leader of a past Serbia and policy of failure. After failing to form a coalition with LSV (as in 2007), LDP announced, after negotiations failed to join the bloc of Đilas' Democrats,[39] its own list which will likely traditionally include the Social Democratic Union. Although an initial plan was to include the United Regions of Serbia in the democratic civic bloc and negotiations were held on the way, they failed due to long-term Tadic-Dinkić rivalries and URS is likely to run independently, for the first time since its formation as a political party.

Third Serbia, a nationalist movement that broke off from Dveri after the previous elections, announced that it'll run in the election.[58]

Opinion polls

Pollster Date of Polling SNS DS NDS SPS DSS URS LDP SRS Dveri Radulovic Others Margin of Error Ref.
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh January 2013 36 15.3 N/A 11.8 7.3 5.2 5.1 unknown [59]
Ipsos Strategic Marketing Template:Dtsh February 2013 41 13 N/A 13 7 3 7 3 2 unknown [60]
Ipsos Strategic Marketing Template:Dtsh March 2013 43 17 N/A 15 5 3 5 3 15 unknown [61]
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh 18–23 July 2013 40.9 11.8 N/A 10.6 7.4 13.7 unknown [62]
CeDem Template:Dtsh August 2013 44 11 N/A 15 8 3 4 3 7 unknown [63]
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh 27–30 September 2013 41.5 11.8 N/A 12.7 6.1 4.4 5.8 13.7 unknown [64]
CeSID Template:Dtsh 10 October 2013 42 11 N/A 16 6 5 7 2 11 unknown [65]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 5 February 2014 44.7 14.1 N/A 12.6 7.1 3.3 4.0 3.1 11.1 unknown [66]
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh 5–6 February 2014 43.0 11.6 N/A 13.1 7.0 2.6 5.2 2.8 6.8 unknown [67]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 14 February 2014 44.1 14.2 N/A 15.1 6.1 3.1 4.7 3.4 9.3 unknown [68]
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh 15 February 2014 41.4 10.5 7.8 13.2 7.0 2.7 5.1 2.3 3.0 7.3 unknown [69]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 16–18 February 2014 44.9 10.2 5.9 13.8 6.8 3.1 4.6 3 2.9 4.8 unknown [70]
Ipsos Strategic Marketing Template:Dtsh mid-February 2014 50.1 4.2 11.8 13.2 6.8 2.8 5.1 2 2.2 1.9[71] unknown [72]
Informer (newspaper) Template:Dtsh mid-February 2014 48.8 6.1 8.6 9.4 7.8 5.3 4.7 1.4 2.9 5 unknown [73]
Faktor Plus Template:Dtsh 16 February 2014 44.6 9.1 8 13[74] 6.8 5.2 13.2 unknown [75]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 23–25 February 2014 45.2[76] 9.9 6.1[77] 13.1[74] 7.2 3.8 4.8 2.9 3 4[78] unknown [79]
CeSID Template:Dtsh 22–28 February 2014 44 7 8 13[74] 5 4 6 3 4 6 unknown [80]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 2–4 March 2014 44.9 10.4 7 13.9[74] 6.9 3.6 4.6 2.8 3.1 1.3 1.5 unknown [81]
Ninamedia Template:Dtsh 6–9 March 2014 43.3 9.7 7.3 15.1[74] 6.4 3.8 4.5 3.5 3.1 1.1 2.2 unknown [82]

Results

According to the preliminary results released by the RIK at 24:00, showed the Progressive-led coalition winning 48.44% of the vote (156 seats), with the SPS-PUPS-JS coming second at 14.05% (45), Boris Tadić's coalition third with 5.86% votes (18) and the Democratic-led coalition 5.46% (17).[83]

Of the minorities, the SVM qualified with 3.01% votes and 9 MPs, SDA with 1.09% and a total of 3 seats and the Albanians' minority list with 0.89% votes and 1 seat.

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  59. ^ "Faktor plus: SNS najjači, slede DS i SPS". Retrieved 31. 01. 2013.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  60. ^ "SNS na istorijskom maksimumu - 41%". Retrieved 31. 01. 2013.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  61. ^ http://www.021.rs/Info/Srbija/Stratedzik-SNS-43-DS-17-SPS-15.html?yyyy=2013&mm=02&dd=27&nav_category=11&nav_id=690602. Retrieved 31. 01. 2013.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help); Missing or empty |title= (help)
  62. ^ "PolPoll: Progressives and its leader have highest rating". B92. Retrieved 05. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  63. ^ "Polovina građana bi glasala na izborima, uglavnom za SNS". Retrieved 31. 01. 2013.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  64. ^ "Poll: SNS most popular, Serbians "want elections"". B92. Retrieved 05. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  65. ^ "SNS vodi u BG,ali Đilas ima podršku". B92. Retrieved 05. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  66. ^ "Istraživanje Ninamedia: SNS 44.7%, DS 14.1%, SPS 12.6, DSS 7.1%, svi ostali ispod cenzusa". Retrieved 05. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  67. ^ "Poll: SNS with 43%, SPS-PUPS-JS with 13.1%". B92. Retrieved 06. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  68. ^ "Istraživanje Nina Media i B92: SNS 44.1%, SPS 15.1%, DS 14.4%, URS i radikali ispod cenzusa!". Retrieved 14. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  69. ^ "Faktor Plus – Izbori 2014 Istraživanje: NDS osvaja 7,8 odsto, DS 10.5 odsto". Retrieved 14. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  70. ^ "Istraživanje: Izlaznost na izborima od 58,9 odsto". Retrieved 21. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  71. ^ None of the Above (NOPO)
  72. ^ "Ankete: SNS daleko ispred svih, ostale stranke različito". Retrieved 24. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  73. ^ "Ankete: SNS daleko ispred svih". Retrieved 24. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  74. ^ a b c d e Including PUPS and JS.
  75. ^ "Faktor plus: SNS podržava 44,6 odsto". Retrieved 26. 02. 2013.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  76. ^ full SNS-SDPS-SPO-NS-PS electoral list)
  77. ^ including all coalition partners within the list
  78. ^ including 1.3% for the Hungarian SVM and 0.7% for the Bosniak SDA
  79. ^ "Istraživanje: Ko raste, a ko pada?". Retrieved 21. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  80. ^ "CeSid: SNS 44 odsto glasova, NDS jača od DS". B92. Retrieved 05. 02. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  81. ^ "Istraživanje: SNS vodi, drugi daleko iza nje". Mondo.rs. Retrieved 07. 03. 2014.. {{cite web}}: Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help)
  82. ^ "Istraživanje: Ko raste, a ko pada?". B92. {{cite web}}: |access-date= requires |url= (help); Check date values in: |accessdate= (help); Cite has empty unknown parameter: |coauthors= (help); Missing or empty |url= (help); Unknown parameter |http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index.php?yyyy= ignored (help)
  83. ^ http://www.rik.parlament.gov.rs/cirilica/saopstenja_frames.htm
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