Next National Assembly for Wales election

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National Assembly for Wales election, 2021

← 2016 On or before 6 May 2021 2026 →

All 60 seats to the National Assembly for Wales
31 seats needed for a majority

 
Carwyn Jones
Paul Davies
Leanne Wood
Leader Carwyn Jones
(Until Autumn 2018)
Paul Davies
(Acting)
Leanne Wood
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 10 December 2009 27 June 2018 16 March 2012
Leader's seat Bridgend Preseli Pembrokeshire Rhondda
Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats
Current seats 29 12[n 1] 10
Seats needed Increase2 Increase20 Increase19

 
Caroline Jones
Jane Dodds
Leader Caroline Jones Jane Dodds
Party UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 17 May 2018 3 November 2017
Leader's seat South Wales West Not in Assembly
Last election 7 seats 1 seat
Current seats 5 1
Seats needed Increase24 Increase30

Incumbent First Minister

Carwyn Jones
Labour



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This article is part of a series on the
politics and government of
Wales
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The next National Assembly for Wales election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[1] to elect 60 members to the Welsh Assembly. It would be the sixth general election since the assembly was established in 1999.

Five parties had AMs in the fifth Assembly: Welsh Labour led by First Minister Carwyn Jones, Plaid Cymru led by Leanne Wood, Welsh Conservatives led by Andrew R. T. Davies, UKIP Wales led by Neil Hamilton, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats, led by Jane Dodds.

Electoral method[edit]

In general elections for the National Assembly for Wales, each voter has two votes in a mixed member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Assembly Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the d'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency, as well as a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning an Assembly Member cannot also be an MP.

Target seats[edit]

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 7.5% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Labour's place 2016 Result
1 Aberconwy Conservative 1,609 3.35 3rd
2 Camarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd

Plaid Cymru targets[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain PC's place 2016 Result
1 Llanelli Labour 382 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent Labour 650 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy Conservative 754 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd
6 Neath Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd

Conservative targets[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain Con's place 2016 Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 777 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd Labour 768 1.55 2nd
3 Gower Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets[edit]

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing to gain LD's place 2016 Result
1 Cardiff Central Labour 817 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd

Opinion polls[edit]

Constituency Vote (FPTP)[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Others Lead
28 Jun-2 July 2018 YouGov 1,031 38% 21% 28% 4% 6% 3% 10%
12-15 March 2018 YouGov 1,015 39% 22% 28% 5% 4% 2% 11%
8-25 Feb 2018 ICM Research 1,001 40% 25% 22% 5% 6% 2% 15%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
21-24 Nov 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,016 43% 19% 26% 4% 5% 4% 17%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[2]
4-7 Sept 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,011 43% 19% 25% 4% 5% 3% 18%
18-21 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,025 40% 20% 27% 5% 6% 3% 13%
5-7 May 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer ~1,000 33% 20% 33% 3% 7% 4% Tie
19-20 Apr 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 29% 22% 30% 8% 8% 3% 1%
3-6 Jan 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 31% 21% 25% 12% 8% 3% 6%
18-21 Sep 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 34% 20% 24% 13% 6% 3% 10%
30 Jun - 4 Jul 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 32% 23% 19% 16% 7% 3% 9%
30 May-2 Jun 2016 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,017 34% 23% 18% 15% 7% 3% 11%
5 May 2016 Assembly election (constituency) 1,013,383 34.7% 20.5% 21.1% 12.5% 7.7% 2.8% 13.6%

Regional Vote (AMS)[edit]

Date(s)
conducted
Polling organisation/client Sample size Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Others Lead
28 Jun-2 July 2018 YouGov 1,031 37% 22% 25% 5% 5% 7% 12%
12-15 March 2018 YouGov 1,015 36% 21% 27% 6% 4% 2% 9%
8-25 Feb 2018 ICM Research 1,001 36% 23% 21% 8% 6% 4% 13%
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
21-24 Nov 2017 YouGov/Welsh Political Barometer 1,016 38% 18% 27% 4% 5% 8% 11%
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[3]
4-7 Sept 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,011 40% 19% 23% 5% 5% 7% 17%
18-21 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,025 37% 19% 26% 5% 5% 8% 11%
5-7 May 2017 Welsh Political Barometer ~1,000 31% 20% 32% 5% 6% 8% 1%
19-21 Apr 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 27% 20% 28% 9% 6% 8% 1%
3-6 Jan 2017 Welsh Political Barometer 1,034 28% 20% 22% 14% 7% 7% 6%
18-21 Sep 2016 Welsh Political Barometer 1,001 29% 21% 22% 13% 6% 10% 7%
30 Jun-4 Jul 2016 Welsh Political Barometer 1,010 29% 24% 18% 15% 6% 10% 5%
30 May-2 Jun 2016 Welsh Political Barometer 1,017 32% 21% 18% 14% 6% 8% 11%
5 May 2016 Assembly election (regional) 1,005,541 31.5% 20.8% 18.8% 13.0% 6.5% 9.5% 10.7%

Seat Projections[edit]

Prof. Roger Scully of Cardiff University's Wales Governance Centre provides seat projections based on individual opinion polls at regular intervals on his 'Elections in Wales' blog.[4]

Date
published
Publisher Lab Plaid Con UKIP Lib Dem Majority
2 July 2018 Prof. Roger Scully 28 15 15 1 1 3 short
15 Mar 2018 Prof. Roger Scully 28 13 17 1 1 3 short
1 Mar 2018 Prof. Roger Scully 30 15 13 1 1 1 short
6 Feb 2018 Alyn and Deeside by-election
28 Nov 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 30 10 18 1 1 1 short
3 Nov 2017 Jane Dodds elected Leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats[5]
9 Sept 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 31 11 16 1 1 2
28 April 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 21 14 18 5 2 10 short
1 Jan 2017 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 22 14 14 8 2 9 short
23 Sep 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 26 12 14 7 1 5 short
4 July 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 26 15 10 8 1 5 short
6 June 2016 Prof. Roger Scully/Welsh Political Barometer 28 13 11 7 1 3 short
5 May 2016 Assembly election 29 12 11 7 1 2 short

See also[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ Includes 1 'Independent Conservative' - Mark Reckless sits with the Welsh Conservative group without being a party member

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Wales Bill (Dates)" (PDF). publications.parliament.uk. Retrieved 7 Oct 2016. 
  2. ^ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk. 
  3. ^ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk. 
  4. ^ "Elections in Wales – Etholiadau yng Nghymru". Retrieved 11 September 2017. 
  5. ^ "Jane Dodds is new Welsh Liberal Democrat leader". 3 November 2017 – via www.bbc.co.uk.