October 2024 Bulgarian parliamentary election
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All 240 seats in the National Assembly 121 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Turnout | 38.94% ( 5.54pp) | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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This lists parties that won seats. See the complete results below.
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Snap parliamentary elections were held in Bulgaria on 27 October 2024,[1][2] after all three attempts to form a government following the latest June 2024 elections failed. This was the country's seventh snap election since 2021. This series of snap elections is the result of a political crisis affecting the country.
Background
[edit]Elections and government breakdown
[edit]Following several snap elections, the Bulgarian National Assembly had failed to put together a long-lasting government since 'anti-corruption' parties made a breakthrough in the April 2021 election.[3][4] The 2023 election saw little change from 2022, with Boyko Borisov's centre-right GERB–SDS narrowly coming in first place, above the centrist PP–DB alliance. The far-right Revival (VAZ) and the populist There is Such a People (ITN) made gains, with the latter re-entering the Assembly after it failed to reach the electoral threshold in 2022.[5][6]
On 22 May 2023 the PP- and GERB-led alliances agreed to form a government with a rotational premiership. Nikolai Denkov, PP's candidate, would be the Prime Minister for the first nine months of the government and Mariya Gabriel, the GERB candidate, would serve as deputy prime minister and foreign affairs minister. After nine months, the two would switch positions.[7] After nine months, the switch failed to materialise with negotiations breaking down,[8][9][10][11] and no government could be formed. Dimitar Glachev was appointed as caretaker prime minister,[12] and elections were scheduled for 9 June 2024.[13][14]
June elections
[edit]The June 2024 elections, held at the same time as the European Parliament elections, had the lowest turnout (33%) since the end of communist rule in 1989.[3] It resulted in GERB–SDS winning most of the votes and 68 seats, with no party or alliance obtaining enough seats to form a majority in the National Assembly.[15] The new elected 50th Parliament replaced the 49th Parliament,[16] when all elected members were sworn in on 19 June.[17] Government formation attempts were given to GERB, PP–DB and There is Such a People (ITN), with the final attempt failing on 5 August.[18][19][20]
On 9 August the Bulgarian President as a consequence instead appointed the Vice President of the Bulgarian National Audit Office, Goritsa Grancharova-Kozhareva, as the next caretaker prime minister.[21] Grancharova-Kozhareva was granted ten days to form a proposal for the next caretaker government to be appointed on 20 August, and the upcoming next parliamentary elections were scheduled for 20 October 2024.[22] Grancharova-Kozhareva made the controversial decision to propose that the incumbent minister of the interior, Kalin Stoyanov, should remain in his role, but this was opposed by president Rumen Radev. Radev rejected the government proposal, delaying the upcoming election.[23]
Following the rejection of Grancharova-Kozhareva, Radev re-appointed Dimitar Glavchev as the caretaker prime minister,[24] and his government proposal was sworn in on 27 August, and the elections were set for the 27 October.[25][26]
Changes in the Assembly's composition prior to the election
[edit]One MP was expelled from the BSP by its national council on 18 June, before being sworn in.[27]
The Velichie parliamentary group comprised 13 MPs after the election. On 5 July, six MPs broke away from the group, dissolving it.[28]
A rift in Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) surrounding Delyan Peevski saw 17 MPs expelled and a further eight leave.[29]
As of the end of July 2024, the composition of the Assembly was as follows:
| Composition of the 50th Parliament (by the end of July 2024)[30] 
|
Electoral system
[edit]The 240 members of the National Assembly were elected by open list, proportional representation from 31 multi-member constituencies ranging in size from four to nineteen seats. The electoral threshold was 4% for all parties or electoral coalitions, with seats allocated according to the largest remainder method using a Hare quota.[31][32]
Parties
[edit]Contesting parties and coalitions
[edit]Below is the official list of parties and coalitions that registered lists for the Bulgarian Parliamentary elections.[33][34] Boxes shaded in grey are not officially parties, but key groups in each alliance.
It was reported that despite suggesting they could run, Volt, Bulgarian National Union and VMRO did not submit their lists in time to partake in the elections.[35] NDPS also wished to partake, but its registration was deleted.[36]
DPS leadership dispute
[edit]On 27 August, the central leadership organisation of the DPS removed Delyan Peevski as chairman of the party, and seven MPs close to Peevski were expelled from the party. This move has been linked to Ahmed Dogan, MP and honorary chairman of the party.[37][38][39] Peevski called the move unconstitutional,[8] and gained control of the official party website.[40] This follows the rift in the party following the election, where the parliamentary group split.[29] The controversy surrounding Peevski has led to two groups emerging,[41] DPS – A New Beginning[42] and Democracy, Rights and Freedoms,[43] with both groups registering as electoral coalitions with the acronym DPS in order to get around the rules of the electoral commission.[6][44] After DPS–Peevski was recognized to be the legitimate DPS by the Supreme Administrative Court of Bulgaria, DPS~Dogan changed their name to "Alliance for Rights and Freedoms" (АПС instead of ДПС) and registered without listing DPS as a member of the alliance.[45] The DPS mayors split 50:50 between both groups.[46]
Campaign
[edit]Ten days prior to the election, it was reported that 1.2 million BGN (US $680k) was spent on advertising in the media, with ITN spending the most, DPS–Peevski second most, and BPS–OL third.[47]
Campaign slogans and websites
[edit]The following list present the official campaign slogans and websites of parties that contested the election:
| Party or coalition | Slogan | Website | |
|---|---|---|---|
| DOST | For a better future | N/A | |
| People's Voice | For a future without political garbage! For a more clean and sacred (republic)! | N/A | |
| SP "Bulgarian Way" | N/A | Website | |
| Greatness | From the ashes - to the sun | Website | |
| Bulgars | Bulgaria above all! | Website | |
| My Country Bulgaria | Unity creates strength! | N/A | |
| There is Such a People | The logical choice | Website | |
| DPS – A New Beginning | It's time for a new beginning | Website | |
| Brigade | To Save Bulgaria | N/A | |
| Party of the Greens | Vote for the Greens with No. 10 | Website | |
| Pravoto | Give a chance for yourself... Vote for Legality! | Website | |
| Revival | Enough experiments! Its time for Revival! | Website | |
| Alliance for Rights and Freedoms | To defend democracy and statehood! | Website | |
| BNS–ND | N/A | Website | |
| Bulgarian Union for Direct Democracy | The system has completely failed! It is time for change to come! | Website | |
| Blue Bulgaria | Believe strongly, act decisively. | Website | |
| Morality, Unity, Honour | MECH or the mafia! | Website | |
| GERB–SDS | Security and stability. | Website | |
| Attack | The attack continues[48] | N/A | |
| Truth and Only Truth | Immediate change | N/A | |
| Direct Democracy | New system | Website | |
| Free Voters | Responsible choice | N/A | |
| Bulgaria of Labor and Reason | For an independent Bulgaria of labour and reason outside the EU and NATO | Website | |
| Competence, Responsibility and Truth | Who will return our fatherland? | N/A | |
| Russophiles for Bulgaria | Bulgaria is stronger together with Russia! | Wesbite | |
| PP–DB | Lets care for Bulgaria. | Website | |
| BSP – United Left | Time for decisions | Website | |
Opinion polls
[edit]
The opinion poll results below were recalculated from the original data by excluding undecided and non-voters.
121 seats are needed for a parliamentary majority and all parties need to pass the 4% threshold to be elected to the National Assembly.
| Polling firm | Fieldwork date | Sample | GERB–SDS | DPS | PP–DB | Vaz | BSP–OL | ITN | Vel | MECh | SB | Others | NOTA | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APS | DPS–NN | BSP | L! | IsBg | |||||||||||||
| Alpha Research | 20–23 Oct | 1,000 | 26.5 76 |
7.9 23 |
7.4 21 |
14.9 42 |
14.2 40 |
7.2 21 |
6.1 17 |
2.6 0 |
3.8 0 |
2.7 0 |
6.7 | 3.0[a] | 11.6 | ||
| Exacta | 19–22 Oct | 1,070 | 26.7 76 |
8.1 23 |
7.3 21 |
14.6 41 |
14.3 41 |
7.5 21 |
6 17 |
2.6 0 |
3.7 0 |
2.8 0 |
6.3 | 2.0[a] | 12.1 | ||
| Trend | 16–22 Oct | 1,002 | 24.9 70 |
7.8 21 |
7 19 |
14.8 41 |
15.2 42 |
6.5 18 |
6.6 18 |
3.6 0 |
4 11 |
1.7 0 |
7.9 | 4.3[a] | 9.7 | ||
| Gallup International | 10–21 Oct | 1,007 | 26.1 70 |
7.8 21 |
7.6 20 |
16.2 43 |
14.9 40 |
7.1 19 |
6.2 16 |
3.8 0 |
4.1 11 |
1.2 0 |
4.9 | 3.4[a] | 9.9 | ||
| MarketLinks | 15–20 Oct | 1,014 | 27.2 71 |
9.3 23 |
8.1 21 |
16.0 42 |
14.9 39 |
7.9 20 |
5.2 14 |
4.1 10 |
1.8 0 |
3.1 0 |
2.0 | 2.7[a] | 11.2 | ||
| Sova Haris | 11–17 Oct | 800 | 25.6 68 |
8.7 23 |
6.5 17 |
14.7 39 |
14.5 38 |
9.8 26 |
6.8 18 |
4.2 11 |
3.1 0 |
1.6 0 |
4.1 | 2.6[a] | 11.2 | ||
| Mediana | 8–13 Oct | 978 | 27.7 74 |
9.8 25 |
5.6 15 |
13.9 37 |
15.5 41 |
10.0 26 |
7.9 21 |
– | 2.7 0 |
3.4 0 |
3.7 | 11.4[a] | 12.2 | ||
| Gallup International | 28 Sep – 6 Oct | 806 | 25.7 72 |
8.3 23 |
6.9 19 |
16.6 46 |
15.4 43 |
7.1 20 |
6.3 17 |
3.2 0 |
3.8 0 |
1.1 0 |
5.7 | 3.1[a] | 9.1 | ||
| Market Links | 25 Sep – 1 Oct | 1,011 | 27.1 78 |
9.9 29 |
7.5 22 |
16.5 48 |
15.6 45 |
6.2 18 |
3.99 0 |
3.8 0 |
– | – | 9.8 | 2.4[a] | 10.6 | ||
| Trend | 17–24 Sep 2024 | 1,003 | 24.8 72 |
8.5 24 |
5.8 16 |
15.1 43 |
15.6 45 |
6.9 20 |
6.9 20 |
3.4 0 |
3.5 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.9 | 3.9[a] | 9.2 | ||
| Alpha Research | 18–24 Sep 2024 | 1,000 | 26.0 75 |
8.6 24 |
6.6 19 |
15.7 44 |
15.4 43 |
6.8 19 |
5.9 16 |
3.5 0 |
3.0 0 |
2.8 0 |
5.5 | 2.6[a] | 10.3 | ||
| 11 Sep 2024 | DPS splits into APS and DPS–NN | ||||||||||||||||
| Market Links | 14–23 Aug 2024 | 1,038 | 26.2 76 |
18.4 53 |
17.1 50 |
13.7 40 |
7.4 21 |
– | – | 3.8 0 |
2.4 0 |
– | – | 8.0 | 3.0 | 7.8 | |
| Gallup International | 1–9 Aug 2024 | 802 | 25.2 74 |
14.5 42 |
15.2 44 |
14.2 41 |
7.3 21 |
– | – | 6.2 18 |
3.6 0 |
3.4 0 |
– | 10.4 | 2.5[a] | 10.0 | |
| Market Links | 20–28 Jul 2024 | 1,008 | 25.8 71 |
14.4 40 |
17.2 47 |
12.3 34 |
7.7 21 |
– | – | 5.8 16 |
4.2 11 |
– | – | 8.6 | 2.8 | 8.6 | |
| Market Links | 18–25 Jun 2024 | 1,014 | 24.4 66 |
18.3 50 |
16.2 44 |
13.8 38 |
5.3 14 |
– | – | 5.4 15 |
5.0 13 |
– | – | 6.7 | 5.8 | 6.1 | |
| June 2024 election results | 9 Jun 2024 | — | 24.7 68 |
17.1 47 |
14.3 39 |
13.8 38 |
7.1 19 |
0.7 0 |
1.5[b] 0 |
6.0 16 |
4.7 13 |
3.0 0 |
1.6 0 |
7.7 | –[c] | 7.4 | |
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l This poll reported the percentage respondents do not support any party, however the rest of the data was recalculated to exclude these percentages.
- ^ As Solidary Bulgaria.
- ^ In official election results, None of the above votes don’t count as a proportion of the total vote. In the June 2024 election, they reached a total number of 63,913 or approximately 2.9%, if measured proportionally.
Conduct
[edit]Allegations of vote buying are common occurrences in the Bulgarian electoral cycle,[49] with former press focus on vote buying among the Roma community in the country.[50] During the election campaign, a deputy, Ivaylo Mirchev, from PP–DB, claimed that there was widespread vote buying being conducted by DPS–Peevski, claiming people were being paid up to 500 BGN (US $286) per vote.[51] One of the leaders of the list for DPS–Peevski appeared to admit to vote buying in a social media poll.[52]
The interior minister, Atanas Ilkov, told a parliamentary hearing that he had received two alerts of vote buying by 25 September.[53] A national police operation that was set up to target the practice began operating two days later.[54] On 18 October, Ilkov said his ministry had received 259 allegations of vote buying.[55]
Deutsche Welle received reports, especially in Kardzhali Province, that DPS–Peevski was pressuring people to vote for the party in fear of losing their jobs, with already 60 jobs lost in the municipal administration. They also reported that Peevski personally was paying for various small-scale public repairs.[56]
Dzheyhan Ibryamov case
[edit]On 2 October, the lead candidate of the APS in Shumen, Dzheyhan Ibryamov, was arrested by the Prosecutors Office on the charge of attempting to buy vote and influence peddling.[57] Following a request by the Prosecutors Office, the CEC and Chairwoman of the National Assembly, Raya Nazaryan, agreed to lift Ibryamov's immunity as a candidate in the elections.[58] Despite the criminal case against him and his arrest, Ibryamov was still authorised to participate in the elections.[59]
The arrest and criminal prosecution of Ibryamov provoked negative reactions from key APS figures, with the coalition de facto leader, Dzhevdet Chakarov, calling for the cancellation of the upcoming elections.[60]
Post-result reports
[edit]In identified polling stations with a risk of high levels of controlled or bought votes, GERB and DPS–Peevski were the leading parties.[61]
According to the Institute for the Development of the Public Environment, there were 827 polling stations with this risk, and bTV reported some voters in Blagoevgrad did not deny that there was vote buying occurring.[62] The coordinator of the 'You Count' organisation, which asks voters to report election misconduct, claimed that there were entire municipalities at risk of high levels of bought and controlled votes. He claimed the results did not reflect the will of the Bulgarian citizens because the results were so skewed.[63]
Results
[edit]Exit polls showed a GERB victory with 26.4% of the vote, with the PP getting 14.9%, and Revival 12.9%.[64]
The following table outlines the partial results by party. The national threshold at 4% is calculated using total votes for parties and independent candidates only, and not the total of valid votes, which include "None of the above" votes. Velichie missed out on reaching the electoral threshold by 29 votes, and therefore lost its parliamentary representation.
As of 22:03 Eastern European Time (UTC+02:00) on 27 October 2024, exit polls showed GERB-SDS to win 65 to 76 seats, with PP–DB securing 37 to 42 seats and Revival claiming 35 to 36 seats. Parallel vote tabulation showed slightly different projections: 63 to 69 for GERB-SDS, 35 to 38 for PP-DB and 35 to 36 for Revival.[65]
Maps
[edit]-
GERB-SDS's results by province
-
Winning party by abroad countries
Aftermath
[edit]Following the results, there were no clear coalition scenarios. Borisov, GERB's leader, declared that he would be willing to cooperate with all parties except for Revival. MECh leader Radostin Vasilev initially proposed a coalition excluding GERB and both wings of the DPS, where MECh would take the interior ministry.[66]
References
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- ^ "Тодор Петров: Вече няма рискови секции, има рискови общини". bnr.bg (in Bulgarian). Retrieved 29 October 2024.
- ^ Slavov, Georgi. "GERB leads in Bulgaria election, exit poll shows, heralding coalition talks". Reuters. Retrieved 27 October 2024.
- ^ "Избори '24 на живо: МЕЧ и "Величие" влизат в парламента, Пеевски с 11.2%". capital.bg. 28 October 2024. Retrieved 28 October 2024.
- ^ "Избори 2024: Осем партии влизат в парламента, най-малката от тях предложи кабинет и поиска МВР". Дневник (in Bulgarian). 28 October 2024. Retrieved 28 October 2024.
