2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election
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Turnout | 52.38% | |||||||||||||||||||
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Lujan Grisham: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Ronchetti: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No data: | ||||||||||||||||||||
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Elections in New Mexico |
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The 2022 New Mexico gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of New Mexico. The election coincided with various other federal and state elections. Primary elections were held on June 7.[1]
Incumbent Democratic Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham won a second term by a margin of 6.38%. She was first elected in 2018 with 57.2% of the vote. Her opponent was Republican Mark Ronchetti, who was also his party's nominee in New Mexico's 2020 U.S. Senate election.
Despite losing, Ronchetti managed to carry a congressional district that elected Democrat Gabe Vasquez in the concurrent U.S. House elections. This was the first gubernatorial election in New Mexico since 1986 in which the winner was from the same party as the incumbent president, and the first time since 1978 that it was a Democrat.
Democratic primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Michelle Lujan Grisham, incumbent governor (2019–present)[2]
Endorsements
[edit]Organizations
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Michelle Lujan Grisham (incumbent) | 125,238 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 125,238 | 100.0% |
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Howie Morales, incumbent lieutenant governor (2019–present)[2]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Howie Morales (incumbent) | 117,293 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 117,293 | 100.0% |
Republican primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Mark Ronchetti, former KRQE meteorologist and nominee for the U.S. Senate in 2020[5]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Jay Block, Sandoval County commissioner and retired U.S. Air Force officer[6][7]
- Rebecca Dow, state representative (2017–2023)[8]
- Ethel Maharg, Right to Life of New Mexico executive director[9]
- Gregory Zanetti, retired U.S. Army National Guard officer and former chair of the Bernalillo County Republican Party[10]
Withdrew
[edit]- Karen Bedonie, businesswoman (running as a Libertarian)[4]
- Louie Sanchez, shooting range owner (ran for U.S. House)[11][12]
- Tim Walsh, former advisor to Governor Gary Johnson and former Lake City, Minnesota city councilman (ran as a Libertarian)[13]
Declined
[edit]- Yvette Herrell, U.S. representative from New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (2021–2023) (ran for re-election)[14]
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Jay Block |
Rebecca Dow |
Mark Ronchetti |
Greg Zanetti |
Other [a] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[15] | April 29 – May 19, 2022 | May 23, 2022 | 10.0% | 13.0% | 44.5% | 9.5% | 23.0% | Ronchetti +31.5 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Jay Block |
Rebecca Dow |
Mark Ronchetti |
Greg Zanetti |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Research & Polling Inc.[16] | May 15–19, 2022 | 560 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 8% | 17% | 45% | 9% | 1%[c] | 21% |
SurveyUSA[17] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 12% | 9% | 44% | 10% | 2%[d] | 23% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[18][A] | January 31 – February 1, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 2% | 9% | 60% | 7% | 3% | 19% |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Mark Ronchetti | 68,658 | 58.41% | |
Republican | Rebecca Dow | 18,185 | 15.47% | |
Republican | Gregory Zanetti | 16,394 | 13.95% | |
Republican | Jay Block | 12,469 | 10.61% | |
Republican | Ethel Maharg | 1,845 | 1.57% | |
Total votes | 117,551 | 100.0% |
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Ant Thornton, aerospace engineer[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Peggy Muller-Aragon, member of the Albuquerque Public Schools Board of Education[4]
Eliminated at convention
[edit]- Patrick H. Lyons, former New Mexico Commissioner of Public Lands and former member of the New Mexico Public Regulation Commission[4]
- Anastacia Morper, real estate agent[4]
- Isabella Solis, Doña Ana County commissioner[19]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Ant Thornton | 64,386 | 59.71% | |
Republican | Peggy Muller-Aragon | 43,438 | 40.29% | |
Total votes | 107,824 | 100.0% |
Libertarian primary
[edit]Governor
[edit]Candidates
[edit]Nominated
[edit]- Karen Bedonie, businesswoman and candidate for New Mexico's 3rd congressional district in 2020[4]
Eliminated in primary
[edit]- Ginger G. Grider, nominee for Secretary of State of New Mexico in 2018[4]
Withdrew
[edit]- Tim Walsh, former advisor to Governor Gary Johnson and former Lake City, Minnesota city councilman[13]
Endorsements
- Individuals
- Nicholas Sarwark, former Chair of Libertarian National Committee (2014–2020)[20]
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Karen Bedonie | 980 | 86.12% | |
Libertarian | Ginger G. Grider (write-in) | 158 | 13.88% | |
Total votes | 1,138 | 100.0% |
Lieutenant governor
[edit]Travis Sanchez won the Libertarian primary unopposed, but withdrew to become the Libertarian nominee for New Mexico State Auditor.[21] Sanchez was replaced by Efren Gallardo Jr.
Candidates
[edit]Declared
[edit]- Efren Gallardo Jr.[22]
Withdrew
[edit]Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Libertarian | Travis Sanchez | 1,175 | 100.0% | |
Total votes | 1,175 | 100.0% |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[23] | Lean D | June 8, 2022 |
Inside Elections[24] | Tilt D | November 3, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[25] | Lean D | January 26, 2022 |
Politico[26] | Lean D | April 1, 2022 |
RCP[27] | Tossup | June 20, 2022 |
Fox News[28] | Tossup | August 22, 2022 |
538[29] | Likely D | July 31, 2022 |
Elections Daily[30] | Lean D | November 7, 2022 |
Endorsements
[edit]U.S. presidents
- Joe Biden, 46th president of the United States (2021–present)[31]
- Barack Obama, 44th president of the United States (2009–2017)[32]
Federal officials
- Kamala Harris, 49th vice president of the United States (2021–present)[33]
State officials
- Gavin Newsom, Governor of California (2019–present)[34]
Local officials[35]
- Ravi Bhasker, mayor of Socorro
- Luis Bonaguidi, mayor of Gallup
- Tim Keller, mayor of Albuquerque
- Ken Ladner, mayor of Silver City
- Javier Perea, mayor of Sunland Park
- Louie Trujillo, mayor of Las Vegas, New Mexico
- Alan Webber, mayor of Santa Fe
Labor unions
- American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees[36]
- National Education Association[36]
- United Auto Workers[36]
- United Mine Workers[37]
Organizations
U.S. presidents
- Donald Trump, 45th president of the United States (2017–2021)[43]
Federal officials
- Nikki Haley, United States Ambassador to the United Nations (2017–2018) and former governor of South Carolina (2011–2017)[44]
- Yvette Herrell, U.S. representative for New Mexico's 2nd congressional district (2021–2023)[45]
- Mike Pence, 48th vice president of the United States (2017–2021)[46]
State officials
- Ron DeSantis, Governor of Florida (2019–present) and former U.S. Representative for Florida's 6th congressional district (2013–2018)[47]
- Doug Ducey, Governor of Arizona (2015–2023) [48]
- Gary Johnson, former governor of New Mexico (1995–2003) (Libertarian)[49]
- Glenn Youngkin, Governor of Virginia (2022–present)[50]
Sheriffs
- David Black, Otero County sheriff[51]
- Shane Ferrari, San Juan County sheriff[51]
- Corey Helton, Lea County sheriff[51]
- Denise Vigil, Valencia County sheriff[51]
Organizations
Polling
[edit]Aggregate polls
Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Karen Bedonie (L) |
Other [e] |
Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Real Clear Politics[56] | October 6–21, 2022 | October 21, 2022 | 47.0% | 43.5% | – | 9.5% | Lujan Grisham +3.5 |
FiveThirtyEight[57] | June 14 – October 24, 2022 | October 24, 2022 | 48.7% | 41.1% | 4.9% | 5.3% | Lujan Grisham +7.6 |
Average | 47.9% | 42.3% | – | 7.4% | Lujan Grisham +5.6 |
Graphical summary
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org. |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Mark Ronchetti (R) |
Karen Bedonie (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Emerson College[58] | October 25–28, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 2% | <1%[f] | 3% |
50% | 48% | 2% | <1%[g] | – | ||||
Research & Polling Inc.[59][h] | October 20–27, 2022 | 1,254 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 50% | 42% | 3% | – | 5% |
SurveyUSA[60] | October 21–26, 2022 | 650 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 39% | 5% | – | 9% |
The Trafalgar Group (R)[61] | October 19–21, 2022 | 1,077 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 46% | 47% | 4% | – | 4% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[62] | October 6–7, 2022 | 806 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | – | 6% |
SurveyUSA[63] | October 1–6, 2022 | 570 (LV) | ± 5.8% | 53% | 37% | 3% | – | 7% |
Cygnal (R)[64][B] | September 27–29, 2022 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 44% | 5% | – | 5% |
SurveyUSA[65] | September 8–12, 2022 | 558 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 48% | 36% | 5% | – | 11% |
Emerson College[66] | September 8–11, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 43% | – | 3%[i] | 5% |
Research & Polling Inc.[67][h] | August 19–25, 2022 | 518 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 47% | 40% | 5% | – | 8% |
GQR Research (D)[68][C] | June 11–17, 2022 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 44% | 5% | – | 3% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[69] | June 13–14, 2022 | 642 (V) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 42% | 9% | – | 5% |
Public Opinion Strategies (R)[70][A] | June 11–14, 2022 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | 9% |
SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 43% | – | – | 11% |
Cygnal (R)[72][D] | January 3–4, 2022 | 531 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 42% | – | – | 16% |
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Jay Block
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Jay Block (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 47% | 37% | 16% |
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Rebecca Dow
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Rebecca Dow (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Cygnal (R)[72][D] | January 3–4, 2022 | 531 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 36% | 20% |
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Ethel Maharg
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Ethel Maharg (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 32% | 19% |
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. Gregory Zanetti
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Gregory Zanetti (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyUSA[71] | April 29 – May 7, 2022 | 1,389 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 36% | 16% |
Cygnal (R)[72][D] | January 3–4, 2022 | 531 (LV) | ± 4.2% | 43% | 38% | 21% |
Michelle Lujan Grisham vs. generic Republican
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D) |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cygnal (R)[73] | July 6–8, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 7% |
Debates
[edit]No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican | Libertarian |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key:
P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
|||||||
Michelle Lujan Grisham | Mark Ronchetti | Karen Bedonie | |||||
1 | Oct. 13, 2022 | KOAT-TV | Doug Fernandez | [74] | P | P | N |
Results
[edit]Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic |
|
370,168 | 51.97% | −5.23% | |
Republican |
|
324,701 | 45.59% | +2.79% | |
Libertarian |
|
17,387 | 2.44% | N/A | |
Total votes | 712,256 | 100.0% | |||
Turnout | 714,797 | 52.38% | |||
Registered electors | 1,364,559 | ||||
Democratic hold |
By county
[edit]By county
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Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican |
By congressional district
[edit]Lujan Grisham won 2 of 3 congressional districts with Ronchetti winning the remaining one, which elected a Democrat.[77]
District | Lujan Grisham | Ronchetti | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 53.2% | 45.3% | Melanie Stansbury |
2nd | 48.4% | 48.7% | Yvette Herrell (117th Congress) |
Gabe Vasquez (118th Congress) | |||
3rd | 53.9% | 43.7% | Teresa Leger Fernandez |
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Maharg with 1%
- ^ Maharg with 2%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Someone else" with <1%
- ^ "Someone else" with <1%
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Albuquerque Journal.
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%
Partisan clients
References
[edit]- ^ "Upcoming Elections". New Mexico Secretary of State. Retrieved May 3, 2022.
- ^ a b "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham will run for re-election". KOAT. June 3, 2021.
- ^ a b "Candidates for Governor". emilyslist.org.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n "2022 Primary Election Candidate Summary Results Report" (PDF). New Mexico Secretary of State.
- ^ Boyd, Dan (October 27, 2021). "Ronchetti announces gubernatorial campaign". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on October 27, 2021. Retrieved October 27, 2021.
- ^ McKay, Dan (April 17, 2021). "Republican Commissioner Jay Block enters governor's race, seeks GOP nomination". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on April 22, 2021. Retrieved July 4, 2021.
- ^ Ramirez, Chris (July 8, 2021). "Republican Jay Block wants to be New Mexico's next governor". KOB-TV. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
{{cite news}}
: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link) - ^ "Republican lawmaker enters race for New Mexico governor". KOB-TV. Associated Press. July 7, 2021. Archived from the original on July 9, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
- ^ Block, John (August 15, 2021). "Seventh Republican, pro-life leader Ethel Maharg, running for governor". Piñon Post. Archived from the original on August 15, 2021. Retrieved December 8, 2021.
- ^ "Military veteran runs for New Mexico governor as Republican". KRQE. Associated Press. June 14, 2021. Retrieved June 25, 2021.
- ^ Boetel, Ryan (August 1, 2021). "Sanchez joins GOP field for governor". Albuquerque Journal. Archived from the original on August 11, 2021. Retrieved August 29, 2021.
- ^ McKay, Dan (February 1, 2022). "5 Republicans seek nomination to challenge Lujan Grisham". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved February 1, 2022.
- ^ a b "Once-GOP gubernatorial candidate switches to Libertarian Party". Pinon Post. December 5, 2021. Retrieved December 9, 2021.
- ^ Milan Simonich (April 15, 2021). "Stumbling GOP could have been a contender". The Santa Fe New Mexican.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ Research & Polling Inc.
- ^ SurveyUSA Archived May 10, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R) Archived February 3, 2022, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Staff Reports. "Former Doña Ana County Commissioner Isabella Solis announces run for lieutenant governor". Las Cruces Sun-News. Retrieved February 8, 2022.
- ^ "There is a contested primary for the Libertarian nomination for Governor of New Mexico". Facebook.
- ^ a b "2022 Candidates for Office". Libertarian Party of New Mexico.
- ^ Coker, Jonny (September 29, 2022). "Libertarian candidate Efren Gallardo, Jr. runs for Lieutenant Governor". KRWG-TV.
- ^ "2022 Governor Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved February 4, 2021.
- ^ "Gubernatorial Ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved February 19, 2021.
- ^ "2022 Gubernatorial race ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved March 11, 2021.
- ^ "New Mexico Governor Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Governor Races". RCP. January 10, 2022. Retrieved January 10, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. August 22, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
- ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
- ^ Szymanski, Joe (November 7, 2022). "Elections Daily Unveils Final 2022 Midterm Ratings". Elections Daily. Retrieved November 28, 2022.
- ^ "Biden to travel to New Mexico days before midterm election". Associated Press. October 27, 2022.
- ^ "Obama video endorses incumbent New Mexico governor". October 27, 2022.
- ^ "Harris to campaign for Lujan Grisham, abortion rights". October 20, 2022.
- ^ "Gavin Newsom has quietly constructed one of the biggest digital forces in politics". Politico. October 28, 2022.
- ^ "Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham Announces Endorsements from New Mexico Mayors".
- ^ a b c d e f g h i "Michelle Lujan Grisham's Ratings and Endorsements". justfacts.votesmart.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
- ^ "New Mexico - COMPAC Endorsements". UMWA. Archived from the original on November 1, 2022. Retrieved November 1, 2022.
- ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham — Donate via ActBlue". secure.actblue.com. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
- ^ "Michelle Lujan Grisham - DGA". democraticgovernors.org. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
- ^ "Giffords Endorses Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". www.giffords.org. Giffords. March 30, 2022.
- ^ "Human Rights Campaign Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". October 26, 2022.
- ^ "NARAL Pro-Choice America Endorses New Mexico Governor Michelle Lujan Grisham for Reelection". August 3, 2022.
- ^ "Trump endorses Mark Ronchetti for New Mexico governor". October 31, 2022.
- ^ "Support Mark Ronchetti now!".
- ^ "Press under tight control as Ronchetti rallies in Carlsbad with DeSantis and Rep. Herrell". www.lcsun-news.com. August 15, 2022. Retrieved August 22, 2022.
- ^ "Pence campaigns for Ronchetti in Roswell". October 6, 2022.
- ^ "DeSantis to Hit Trail to Boost Trump-Backed Midterm Candidates". Bloomberg.com. August 8, 2022.
- ^ "Ronchetti campaigns with AZ governor - Albuquerque Journal".
- ^ "Trump Weighs in Regarding New Mexico Race for Governor".
- ^ "Youngkin traveling to five more states amid talk of possible 2024 bid". August 23, 2022.
- ^ a b c d Boyd, Dan (August 10, 2022). "Sheriffs back Ronchetti in new TV ad". Albuquerque Journal. Retrieved August 18, 2022.
- ^ "Editorial: Ronchetti for governor - Albuquerque Journal". October 23, 2022.
- ^ "CatholicVote's 2022 Key Race Endorsements". CatholicVote.org. October 4, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
- ^ "New Mexico Grades & Endorsements". nrapvf.org. NRA-PVF. Archived from the original on November 8, 2022. Retrieved February 15, 2023.
{{cite web}}
: CS1 maint: unfit URL (link) - ^ "Vote Freedom First. Vote Mark Ronchetti For New Mexico Governor!". nrapvf.org. Archived from the original on September 22, 2022. Retrieved October 21, 2022.
- ^ Real Clear Politics
- ^ FiveThirtyEight
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Research & Polling Inc.
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ The Trafalgar Group (R)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ SurveyUSA
- ^ Emerson College
- ^ Research & Polling Inc.
- ^ GQR Research (D)
- ^ Public Policy Polling (D)
- ^ Public Opinion Strategies (R)
- ^ a b c d e SurveyUSA
- ^ a b c Cygnal (R)
- ^ Cygnal (R)
- ^ Youtube
- ^ "2022 General New Mexico - Official Results". New Mexico Secretary of State.
- ^ "New Mexico Secretary of State". electionresults.sos.state.nm.us.
- ^ "Twitter".
External links
[edit]Official campaign websites