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[[Ocean currents]] are caused by varying temperatures associated with sunlight and air temperatures at different latitudes, as well as by prevailing winds and the different densities of saline and fresh water.
[[Ocean currents]] are caused by varying temperatures associated with sunlight and air temperatures at different latitudes, as well as by prevailing winds and the different densities of saline and fresh water.


Air tends to be warmed and thus rise near the [[equator]], then cool and thus sink slightly further poleward. Near the poles, cool air sinks, but is warmed and rises as it travels along the surface equatorward. This creates large-scale wind patterns known as [[Hadley cell]]s, with similar effects driving a mid-latitude cell in each hemisphere.<ref name=":11">{{Cite book |last=Trujillo |first=Alan P. |url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815043823 |title=Essentials of oceanography |date=2014 |publisher=Pearson |others=Harold V. Thurman |isbn=978-0-321-81405-0 |edition=11th |location=Boston |oclc=815043823}}</ref> Wind patterns associated with these circulation cells drive surface currents which push the surface water to the higher latitudes where the air is colder.<ref name=":11" /> This cools the water down, causing it to become very dense in relation to lower latitude waters, which in turn causes it to sink to the bottom of the ocean, forming what is known as [[North Atlantic Deep Water]] (NADW) in the north and [[Antarctic Bottom Water]] (AABW) in the south.<ref>Talley, L. (2000). [http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect_5/lecture_5.html Sio 210 talley topic 5: North Atlantic circulation and water masses. thermohaline forcing].</ref> Driven by this sinking and the upwelling that occurs in lower latitudes, as well as the driving force of the winds on surface water, the ocean currents act to circulate water throughout the entire sea. When global warming is added into the equation, changes occur, especially in the regions where deep water is formed. With the warming of the oceans and subsequent melting of glaciers and the [[polar ice cap]]s, more and more fresh water is released into the high latitude regions where deep water is formed, reducing the density of the surface water. Consequently, the water sinks more slowly than it normally would.<ref>Roach, J. (2005, June 27). [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/06/0627_050627_oceancurrent.html Global warming may alter atlantic currents, study says].</ref>
Air tends to be warmed and thus rise near the [[equator]], then cool and thus sink slightly further poleward. Near the poles, cool air sinks, but is warmed and rises as it travels along the surface equatorward. This creates large-scale wind patterns known as [[Hadley cell]]s, with similar effects driving a mid-latitude cell in each hemisphere.<ref name=":11">{{Cite book |last=Trujillo |first=Alan P. |url=https://www.worldcat.org/oclc/815043823 |title=Essentials of oceanography |date=2014 |publisher=Pearson |others=Harold V. Thurman |isbn=978-0-321-81405-0 |edition=11th |location=Boston |oclc=815043823}}</ref> Wind patterns associated with these circulation cells drive surface currents which push the surface water to the higher latitudes where the air is colder.<ref name=":11" /> This cools the water down, causing it to become very dense in relation to lower latitude waters, which in turn causes it to sink to the bottom of the ocean, forming what is known as [[North Atlantic Deep Water]] (NADW) in the north and [[Antarctic Bottom Water]] (AABW) in the south.<ref>Talley, L. (2000). [http://sam.ucsd.edu/sio210/lect_5/lecture_5.html Sio 210 talley topic 5: North Atlantic circulation and water masses. thermohaline forcing].</ref>


Driven by this sinking and the upwelling that occurs in lower latitudes, as well as the driving force of the winds on surface water, the ocean currents act to circulate water throughout the entire sea. When global warming is added into the equation, changes occur, especially in the regions where deep water is formed. With the warming of the oceans and subsequent melting of glaciers and the [[polar ice cap]]s, more and more fresh water is released into the high latitude regions where deep water is formed, reducing the density of the surface water. Consequently, the water sinks more slowly than it normally would.<ref>Roach, J. (2005, June 27). [http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/06/0627_050627_oceancurrent.html Global warming may alter atlantic currents, study says].</ref>
There is some concern that a slowdown or shutdown of the thermohaline circulation, trigger localized cooling in the North Atlantic and lead to cooling, or lesser warming, in that region.<ref name="Lenton_2008">

{{cite journal
Modern observations, [[Climate model|climate simulations]] and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that the [[Atlantic meridional overturning circulation|Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation]] (AMOC) has weakened since the preindustrial era. The latest climate change projections in 2021 suggest that the AMOC is likely to weaken further over the 21st century.<ref name="SROCC_SPM_20190925" />{{rp|19}} Such a weakening could cause large changes to global climate, with the North Atlantic particularly vulnerable.<ref name="SROCC_SPM_20190925" />{{rp|19}} This would affect in particular areas like [[Scandinavia]] and [[United Kingdom|Britain]] that are warmed by the [[North Atlantic drift]].<ref name="Lenton_2008">
| last1=Lenton | first1=T. M.
{{cite journal |last1=Lenton |first1=T. M. |last2=Held |first2=H. |last3=Kriegler |first3=E. |last4=Hall |first4=J. W. |last5=Lucht |first5=W. |last6=Rahmstorf |first6=S. |last7=Schellnhuber |first7=H. J. |year=2008 |title=Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system |journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |volume=105 |issue=6 |pages=1786–1793 |bibcode=2008PNAS..105.1786L |doi=10.1073/pnas.0705414105 |pmc=2538841 |pmid=18258748 |doi-access=free}}
| last2=Held | first2=H.
</ref>
| last3=Kriegler | first3=E.

| last4=Hall | first4=J. W.
The surface wind pattern may also change with climate change, particularly its intensity and this may lead to locally variable climate change effects.<ref name="SROCC_SPM_20190925" /> These changes in ocean currents also affect the ability of the ocean to take up carbon dioxide (which depends on water temperature) and also ocean productivity because the currents transport nutrients (see [[Effects of climate change on oceans#Impacts on phytoplankton and net primary production|Impacts on phytoplankton and net primary production]]). The AMOC deep ocean circulation is slow (hundreds to thousands of years to circulate around the whole ocean) and so it is slow to respond to climate change. The impacts of climate change will be slow to start but equally take a long time to play out.
| last5=Lucht | first5=W.
| last6=Rahmstorf | first6=S.
| last7=Schellnhuber | first7=H. J.
| doi=10.1073/pnas.0705414105
| title=Inaugural Article: Tipping elements in the Earth's climate system
| journal=Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
| volume=105
| issue=6
| pages=1786–1793
| year=2008
| pmid=18258748
| pmc=2538841
| bibcode=2008PNAS..105.1786L
| doi-access=free
}}
</ref> This would affect in particular areas like [[Scandinavia]] and [[United Kingdom|Britain]] that are warmed by the [[North Atlantic drift]].


=== Tropical cyclones ===
=== Tropical cyclones ===

Revision as of 12:12, 19 October 2022

Overview about climatic changes and their effects on the ocean. Regional effects are displayed in italics.[1]

The effects of climate change on oceans include the rise in sea level from ocean warming and ice sheet melting, changes in pH value (ocean acidification),as well as changes in water circulation, and stratification due to changing temperatures leading to changes in oxygen concentrations. The cause of these effects lies in the fact that the Earth is warming due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases. This leads inevitably to ocean warming with the ocean taking up most of the additional heat in the climate system.[2] Some of the the greenhouse gases are taken up by the ocean (via carbon sequestration) and help to mitigate climate change but lead to ocean acidification.

The main physical effects of climate change on the world ocean are sea level rise, ocean warming, ocean acidification, increased upper ocean stratification, increased contrasts in salinity (salty areas becoming saltier and fresher areas becoming less salty),[3] loss of oxygen, an increase in marine heatwaves,[4] and changes to ocean currents including a possible slowdown or shutdown of thermohaline circulation. Chemical effects include ocean acidification and reductions in oxygen levels.

Warming of the ocean surface due to higher air temperatures leads to increased water temperature stratification.[5]: 471  The decline in mixing of the ocean layers piles up warm water near the surface while reducing cold, deep water circulation. The reduced up and down mixing reduces the ability of the ocean to absorb heat, directing a larger fraction of future warming toward the atmosphere and land. Energy available for tropical cyclones and other storms is expected to increase, nutrients for fish in the upper ocean layers are set to decrease, as well as the capacity of the oceans to store carbon.[6]

Warmer water cannot contain as much oxygen as cold water, changing the gas exchange equilibrium to reduce ocean oxygen levels and increase oxygen in the atmosphere. Increased thermal stratification may lead to increases in respiration rates of organic matter, further decreasing water oxygen content. The ocean has already lost oxygen, throughout the entire water column and oxygen minimum zones are expanding worldwide.[5]: 471 

These changes disturb marine ecosystems, which can cause both extinctions and population explosions, change the distribution of species,[4] and impact coastal fishing and tourism. Increase of water temperature will also have a devastating effect on different oceanic ecosystems like coral reefs. The direct effect is the coral bleaching of these reefs, which live within a narrow temperature margin, so a small increase in temperature would have a drastic effect in these environments. Ocean acidification and temperature rise will also affect the productivity and distribution of species within the ocean threatening fisheries and disrupting marine ecosystems. Loss of sea ice habitats due to warming will severely impact the many polar species which depend on this sea ice. Many of these climate change pressures interact compounding the pressures on the climate system and on ocean ecosystems.[4]

Fundamental causes of changes

Ocean heat content changes since 1955 (annual estimates for the first 2,000 meters of ocean depth, the shaded blue region indicates the 95% margin of uncertainty.)[7]
Energy (heat) added to various parts of the climate system due to global warming (data from 2007).

Present-day (2020) atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels of more than 410 ppm are nearly 50% higher than preindustrial concentrations, and the current elevated levels and rapid growth rates are unprecedented in the past 55 million years of the geological record.[8] The source for this excess CO2 is clearly established as human driven, reflecting a mix of anthropogenic fossil fuel, industrial, and land-use/land-change emissions.[8] The concept that the ocean acts as a major sink for anthropogenic CO2 has been present in the scientific literature since at least the late 1950s.[8] Multiple lines of evidence support the finding that the ocean takes up roughly a quarter of total anthropogenic CO2 emissions.[8]

The latest key findings about the observed changes and impacts from 2019 include:

It is virtually certain that the global ocean has warmed unabated since 1970 and has taken up more than 90% of the excess heat in the climate system [...]. Since 1993, the rate of ocean warming has more than doubled [...]. Marine heatwaves have very likely doubled in frequency since 1982 and are increasing in intensity [...]. By absorbing more CO2, the ocean has undergone increasing surface acidification [...]. A loss of oxygen has occurred from the surface to 1000 m [...].

Ocean temperature and ocean heat content

Land surface temperatures have increased faster than ocean temperatures as the ocean absorbs about 92% of excess heat generated by climate change.[9] Chart with data from NASA[10] showing how land and sea surface air temperatures have changed vs a pre-industrial baseline.

It is clear that the oceans are warming as a result of climate change and this rate of warming is increasing.[4]: 9  The upper ocean (above 700 m) is warming fastest, but the warming trend extends throughout the ocean. Most of the ocean heat gain is taking place in the Southern Ocean. For example, the temperature of the Antarctic Southern Ocean rose by 0.17 °C (0.31 °F) between the 1950s and the 1980s, nearly twice the rate for the world's oceans as a whole.[11]

Ocean temperatures vary from place to place. They are warmer near the equator and cooler at the poles. Therefore, ocean warming is best illustrated by the changes in total ocean heat content.

The heat uptake has accelerated in the 1993–2017 period compared to 1969–1993.[5]: 457  The warming rate varies with depth: at a depth of a thousand metres the warming occurs at a rate of almost 0.4 °C per century (data from 1981 to 2019), whereas the warming rate at two kilometres depth is only half.[5]: 463 

The illustration of temperature changes from 1960 to 2019 across each ocean starting at the Southern Ocean around Antarctica.[12]

From 1960 to through 2019, the average temperature for the upper 2000 meters of the oceans has increased by 0.12 degree Celsius, whereas the ocean surface temperature has warmed up to 1.2 degree Celsius from the pre-industrial era.[12]

Ocean heat content

Ocean heat content (OHC) or ocean heat uptake (OHU) is the energy absorbed and stored by oceans. To calculate the ocean heat content, it is necessary to measure ocean temperature at many different locations and depths. Integrating the areal density of a change in enthalpic energy over an ocean basin or entire ocean gives the total ocean heat uptake.[13] Between 1971 and 2018, the rise in ocean heat content accounted for over 90% of Earth's excess energy from global heating.[14][15] The main driver of this increase was caused by humans via their rising greenhouse gas emissions.[16]: 1228  By 2020, about one third of the added energy had propagated to depths below 700 meters.[17][18]

Observed effects on the physical environment

Sea level rise

Waves on an ocean coast

The consensus of many studies of coastal tide gauge records is that during the past century sea level has risen worldwide at an average rate of 1–2 mm/yr (the global average sea level was about 15–25 cm higher in 2018 compared to 1900).[19]: 1318  This is due to the net flux of heat into the surface of the land and oceans. This rate of sea level rise is now increasing: The sea level rose by about 4 mm per year from 2006 to 2018.[19]: 1318 

This will threatens many coastal cities with coastal flooding over coming decades and longer.[19]: 1318  Coastal flooding can be exacerbated further by local subsidence which may be natural but can be increased by human activity.[20] By 2050 hundreds of millions of people are at risk from coastal flooding, particularly in Southeast Asia.[20]

Between 1901 and 2018, the average sea level rose by 15–25 cm (6–10 in), with an increase of 2.3 mm (0.091 in) per year since the 1970s.[21]: 1216  This was faster than the sea level had ever risen over at least the past 3,000 years.[21]: 1216  The rate accelerated to 4.62 mm (0.182 in)/yr for the decade 2013–2022.[22] Climate change due to human activities is the main cause.[23]: 5, 8  Between 1993 and 2018, melting ice sheets and glaciers accounted for 44% of sea level rise, with another 42% resulting from thermal expansion of water.[24]: 1576 

Ocean currents

Ocean currents are caused by varying temperatures associated with sunlight and air temperatures at different latitudes, as well as by prevailing winds and the different densities of saline and fresh water.

Air tends to be warmed and thus rise near the equator, then cool and thus sink slightly further poleward. Near the poles, cool air sinks, but is warmed and rises as it travels along the surface equatorward. This creates large-scale wind patterns known as Hadley cells, with similar effects driving a mid-latitude cell in each hemisphere.[25] Wind patterns associated with these circulation cells drive surface currents which push the surface water to the higher latitudes where the air is colder.[25] This cools the water down, causing it to become very dense in relation to lower latitude waters, which in turn causes it to sink to the bottom of the ocean, forming what is known as North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the north and Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the south.[26]

Driven by this sinking and the upwelling that occurs in lower latitudes, as well as the driving force of the winds on surface water, the ocean currents act to circulate water throughout the entire sea. When global warming is added into the equation, changes occur, especially in the regions where deep water is formed. With the warming of the oceans and subsequent melting of glaciers and the polar ice caps, more and more fresh water is released into the high latitude regions where deep water is formed, reducing the density of the surface water. Consequently, the water sinks more slowly than it normally would.[27]

Modern observations, climate simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has weakened since the preindustrial era. The latest climate change projections in 2021 suggest that the AMOC is likely to weaken further over the 21st century.[4]: 19  Such a weakening could cause large changes to global climate, with the North Atlantic particularly vulnerable.[4]: 19  This would affect in particular areas like Scandinavia and Britain that are warmed by the North Atlantic drift.[28]

The surface wind pattern may also change with climate change, particularly its intensity and this may lead to locally variable climate change effects.[4] These changes in ocean currents also affect the ability of the ocean to take up carbon dioxide (which depends on water temperature) and also ocean productivity because the currents transport nutrients (see Impacts on phytoplankton and net primary production). The AMOC deep ocean circulation is slow (hundreds to thousands of years to circulate around the whole ocean) and so it is slow to respond to climate change. The impacts of climate change will be slow to start but equally take a long time to play out.

Tropical cyclones

Human-induced climate change continues to warm the oceans which provide the memory of past accumulated effects.[29] The resulting environment, including higher ocean heat content and sea surface temperatures, invigorates tropical cyclones to make them more intense, bigger, and longer lasting and greatly increases their flooding rains. The main example here is Hurricane Harvey in August 2017. Accordingly, record high ocean heat values not only increased the fuel available to sustain and intensify Harvey but also increased its flooding rains on land. Harvey could not have produced so much rain without human-induced climate change.[29]

North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity according to the Power Dissipation Index, 1949–2015. Sea surface temperature has been plotted alongside the PDI to show how they compare. The lines have been smoothed using a five-year weighted average, plotted at the middle year.

Climate change affects tropical cyclones in a variety of ways: an intensification of rainfall and wind speed, an increase in the frequency of very intense storms and a poleward extension of where the cyclones reach maximum intensity are among the consequences of human-induced climate change.[30][31] Tropical cyclones use warm, moist air as their source of energy or fuel. As climate change is warming ocean temperatures, there is potentially more of this fuel available.[32]

Between 1979 and 2017, there was a global increase in the proportion of tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher on the Saffir–Simpson scale. The trend was most clear in the north Indian Ocean,[33][34] North Atlantic and in the Southern Indian Ocean. In the north Indian Ocean, particularly the Arabian Sea, the frequency, duration, and intensity of cyclones have increased significantly. There has been a 52% increase in the number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea, while the number of very severe cyclones have increased by 150%, during 1982–2019. Meanwhile, the total duration of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has increased by 80% while that of very severe cyclones has increased by 260%.[33] In the North Pacific, tropical cyclones have been moving poleward into colder waters and there was no increase in intensity over this period.[35] With 2 °C (3.6 °F) warming, a greater percentage (+13%) of tropical cyclones are expected to reach Category 4 and 5 strength.[30] A 2019 study indicates that climate change has been driving the observed trend of rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin. Rapidly intensifying cyclones are hard to forecast and therefore pose additional risk to coastal communities.[36]

Salinity changes

Due to global warming and increased glacier melt, thermohaline circulation patterns may be altered by increasing amounts of freshwater released into oceans and, therefore, changing ocean salinity. Thermohaline circulation is responsible for bringing up cold, nutrient-rich water from the depths of the ocean, a process known as upwelling.[37]

Seawater consists of fresh water and salt, and the concentration of salt in seawater is called salinity. Salt does not evaporate, thus the precipitation and evaporation of freshwater influences salinity strongly. Changes in the water cycle are therefore strongly visible in surface salinity measurements, which is already acknowledged since the 1930s.[3][38]

The long term observation records show a clear trend: the global salinity patterns are amplifying in this period.[39][40] This means that the high saline regions have become more saline, and regions of low salinity have become less saline. The regions of high salinity are dominated by evaporation, and the increase in salinity shows that evaporation is increasing even more. The same goes for regions of low salinity that are become less saline, which indicates that precipitation is intensifying only more.[41][5]

Ocean acidification

Ocean acidification: mean seawater pH. Mean seawater pH is shown based on in-situ measurements of pH from the Aloha station.[19]
Change in pH since the beginning of the industrial revolution. RCP 2.6 scenario is "low CO2 emissions" . RCP 8.5 scenario is "high CO2 emissions", the path we are currently on.[42]

The increase of ocean acidity decelerates the rate of calcification in salt water, leading to smaller and slower growing reefs which supports approximately 25% of marine life.[43][44] Impacts are far-reaching from fisheries and coastal environments down to the deepest depths of the ocean.[45] The increase in ocean acidity in not only killing the coral, but also the wildly diverse population of marine inhabitants which coral reefs support.[46]

Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's ocean. Between 1950 and 2020, the average pH of the ocean surface fell from approximately 8.15 to 8.05.[47] Carbon dioxide emissions from human activities are the primary cause of ocean acidification, with atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels exceeding 410 ppm (in 2020). CO2 from the atmosphere is absorbed by the oceans. This chemical reaction produces carbonic acid (H2CO3) which dissociates into a bicarbonate ion (HCO3) and a hydrogen ion (H+). The presence of free hydrogen ions (H+) lowers the pH of the ocean, increasing acidity (this does not mean that seawater is acidic yet; it is still alkaline, with a pH higher than 8). Marine calcifying organisms, such as mollusks and corals, are especially vulnerable because they rely on calcium carbonate to build shells and skeletons.[48]

Oxygen depletion (hypoxia)

Increase frequency of Hypoxia Occurrence in the entire Baltic Sea calculated as the number of profiles with recorded hypoxia relative to the total number of profiles (Conley et al., 2011)

Another issue faced by increasing global temperatures is the decrease of the ocean's ability to dissolve oxygen, one with potentially more severe consequences than other repercussions of global warming.[49] Ocean depths between 100 meters and 1,000 meters are known as "oceanic mid zones" and host a plethora of biologically diverse species, one of which being zooplankton.[50] Zooplankton feed on smaller organisms such as phytoplankton, which are an integral part of the marine food web.[51] Phytoplankton perform photosynthesis, receiving energy from light, and provide sustenance and energy for the larger zooplankton, which provide sustenance and energy for the even larger fish, and so on up the food chain.[51] The increase in oceanic temperatures lowers the ocean's ability to retain oxygen generated from phytoplankton, and therefore reduces the amount of bioavailable oxygen that fish and other various marine wildlife rely on for their survival.[50] This creates marine dead zones, and the phenomenon has already generated multiple marine dead zones around the world, as marine currents effectively "trap" the deoxygenated water. Hypoxia occurs in the variety of coastal environment when the dissolved of oxygen (DO) is depleted to a certain low level, where aquatic organisms, especially benthic fauna, become stressed or die due to the lack of oxygen.[52] Hypoxia occurs when the coastal region enhance Phosphorus release from sediment and increase Nitrate (N) loss. This chemical scenario supports favorable growth for cyanobacteria which contribute to the hypoxia and ultimately sustain eutrophication.[53]  Hypoxia degrades an ecosystem by damaging the bottom fauna habitats, altering the food web, changing the nitrogen and phosphate cycling, decreasing fishery catch, and enhancing the water acidification.[53] There were 500 areas in the world with reported coastal hypoxia in 2011, with Baltic Sea contains the largest hypoxia zone in the world.[54] These numbers are expected to increase due to the worsening condition of coastal areas caused by the excessive anthropogenic nutrient loads that stimulate intensified eutrophication.  The rapidly changing climate in particularly, global warming, also contributes to the increase of Hypoxia occurrence that damaging marine mammals and marine/coastal ecosystem.

Ocean deoxygenation is the reduction of the oxygen content in different parts of the ocean due to human activities.[55][56] There are two areas where this occurs. Firstly, it occurs in coastal zones where eutrophication has driven some quite rapid (in a few decades) declines in oxygen to very low levels.[55] This type of ocean deoxygenation is also called dead zones. Secondly, ocean deoxygenation occurs also in the open ocean. In that part of the ocean, there is nowadays an ongoing reduction in oxygen levels. As a result, the naturally occurring low oxygen areas (so called oxygen minimum zones (OMZs)) are now expanding slowly.[57] This expansion is happening as a consequence of human caused climate change.[58][59] The resulting decrease in oxygen content of the oceans poses a threat to marine life, as well as to people who depend on marine life for nutrition or livelihood.[60][61][62] A decrease in ocean oxygen levels affects how productive the ocean is, how nutrients and carbon move around, and how marine habitats function.[63][64]

As the oceans become warmer this increases the loss of oxygen in the oceans. This is because the warmer temperatures increase ocean stratification. The reason for this lies in the multiple connections between density and solubility effects that result from warming.[65][66] As a side effect, the availability of nutrients for marine life is reduced, therefore adding further stress to marine organisms.

Sea ice decline

Decline in arctic sea ice extent (area) from 1979 to 2022

Sea ice decline occurs in both polar regions, the Artic and Antarctica.

Sea ice in the Arctic region has declined in recent decades in area and volume due to climate change. It has been melting more in summer than it refreezes in winter. Global warming, caused by greenhouse gas forcing is responsible for the decline in Arctic sea ice. The decline of sea ice in the Arctic has been accelerating during the early twenty-first century, with a decline rate of 4.7% per decade (it has declined over 50% since the first satellite records).[67][68][69] Summertime sea ice will likely cease to exist sometime during the 21st century.[70]
Sea ice extent in Antarctica varies a lot year by year. This makes it difficult determine a trend, and record highs and record lows have been observed between 2013 and 2023. The general trend since 1979, the start of the satellite measurements, has been roughly flat. Between 2015 and 2023, there has been a decline in sea ice, but due to the high variability, this does not correspond to a significant trend.[71] The flat trend is in contrast with Arctic sea ice, which has seen a declining trend.[71][72]

Seafloor

It is known that climate affects the ocean and the ocean affects the climate. Due to climate change, as the ocean gets warmer this too has an effect on the seafloor.[73] Because of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, this warming will have an effect on the bicarbonate buffer of the ocean. The bicarbonate buffer is the concentration of bicarbonate ions that keeps the ocean's acidity balanced within a pH range of 7.5–8.4.[74] Addition of carbon dioxide to the ocean water makes the oceans more acidic. Increased ocean acidity is not good for the planktonic organisms that depend on calcium to form their shells. Calcium dissolves with very weak acids and any increase in the ocean's acidity will be destructive for the calcareous organisms. Increased ocean acidity will lead to decreased Calcite Compensation Depth (CCD), causing calcite to dissolve in shallower waters.[74] This will then have a great effect on the calcareous ooze in the ocean, because the sediment itself would begin to dissolve.

Methane clathrate

A related issue is the methane clathrate reservoirs found under sediments on the ocean floors. These trap large amounts of the greenhouse gas methane, which ocean warming has the potential to release. In 2004 the global inventory of ocean methane clathrates was estimated to occupy between one and five million cubic kilometres.[75] If all these clathrates were to be spread uniformly across the ocean floor, this would translate to a thickness between three and fourteen metres.[76] This estimate corresponds to 500–2500 gigatonnes carbon (Gt C), and can be compared with the 5000 Gt C estimated for all other fossil fuel reserves.[75][77]

If ocean temperatures rise it will have an effect right beneath the ocean floor and it will allow the addition of another greenhouse gas, methane gas. Methane gas has been found under methane hydrate, frozen methane and water, beneath the ocean floor. With the ocean warming, this methane hydrate will begin to melt and release methane gas, contributing to global warming.[78] However, recent research has found that CO2 uptake outpaces methane release in these areas of the ocean causing overall decreases in global warming.[79]

Impacts on marine life

Examples of projected impacts and vulnerabilities for fisheries associated with climate change

Impacts on phytoplankton and net primary production

Research indicates that increasing ocean temperatures are taking a toll on the marine ecosystem. A study on phytoplankton changes in the Indian Ocean indicates a decline of up to 20% in marine phytoplankton during the past six decades.[80] During the summer, the western Indian Ocean is home to one of the largest concentrations of marine phytoplankton blooms in the world when compared to other oceans in the tropics. Increased warming in the Indian Ocean enhances ocean stratification, which prevents nutrient mixing in the euphotic zone where there is ample light available for photosynthesis. Thus, primary production is constrained and the region's entire food web is disrupted. If rapid warming continues, experts predict that the Indian Ocean will transform into an ecological desert and will no longer be productive.[80] The same study also addresses the abrupt decline of tuna catch rates in the Indian Ocean during the past half century. This decrease is mostly due to increased industrial fisheries, with ocean warming adding further stress to the fish species. These rates show a 50-90% decrease over 5 decades.[80]

A study that describes climate-driven trends in contemporary ocean productivity looked at global-ocean net primary production (NPP) changes detected from satellite measurements of ocean color from 1997 to 2006.[81] These measurements can be used to quantify ocean productivity on a global scale and relate changes to environmental factors. They found an initial increase in NPP from 1997 to 1999 followed by a continuous decrease in productivity after 1999. These trends are propelled by the expansive stratified low-latitude oceans and are closely linked to climate variability. This relationship between the physical environment and ocean biology effects the availability of nutrients for phytoplankton growth since these factors influence variations in upper-ocean temperature and stratification.[81] The downward trends of ocean productivity after 1999 observed in this study can give insight into how climate change can affect marine life in the future.

Satellite measurement and chlorophyll observations indicate a decline in the number of phytoplankton, microorganisms that produce half of the earth's oxygen, absorb half of the world carbon dioxide and serve foundation of the entire marine food chain.[82] Phytoplankton are vital to Earth systems and critical for global ecosystem functioning and services, and vary with environmental parameters such as, temperature, water column mixing, nutrients, sunlight, and consumption by grazers.[83][84] Climate change results in fluctuations and modification of these parameters, which in turn may impact phytoplankton community composition, structure, and annual and seasonal dynamics.[84] Recent research and models have predicted a decline in phytoplankton productivity in response to warming ocean waters resulting in increased stratification where there is less vertical mixing in the water column to cycle nutrients from the deep ocean to surface waters.[85][86] Studies over the past decade confirm this prediction with data showing a slight decline in global phytoplankton productivity, particularly due to the expansion of "ocean deserts," such as subtropical ocean gyres with low-nutrient availability, as a result of rising seawater temperatures.[87]

Phytoplankton are critical to the carbon cycle as they consume CO2 via photosynthesis on similar scale to forests and terrestrial plants. As phytoplankton die and sink, carbon is then transported to deeper layers of the ocean where it is then eaten by consumers, and this cycle continues. The biological carbon pump is responsible for approximately 10 gigatonnes of carbon from the atmosphere to the deep ocean every year.[88] Fluctuations in phytoplankton in growth, abundance, or composition would greatly affect this system, as well as global climate.[88]

Changes in temperatures will impact the location of areas with high primary productivity. Primary producers, such as plankton,[89][90][91][92] are the main food source for marine mammals such as some whales. Species migration will therefore be directly affected by locations of high primary productivity. Water temperature changes also affect ocean turbulence, which has a major impact on the dispersion of plankton and other primary producers.[93]

Ocean warming can also result in a reduction of the solubility of CO2 in seawater,[94] resulting in discharge of CO2 from the ocean to the atmosphere. In addition to temperature, alkalinity and primary productivity modulate the CO2 flux between the ocean and the atmosphere.[95] In basins with very low primary productivity and rapid warming, such as the Eastern Mediterranean sea, a shift from CO2 sink to source has already been observed.[96]

Effects on marine mammals

Some effects on marine mammals, especially those in the Arctic, are very direct such as loss of habitat, temperature stress, and exposure to severe weather. Other effects are more indirect, such as changes in host pathogen associations, changes in body condition because of predator–prey interaction, changes in exposure to toxins and CO2 emissions, and increased human interactions.[97] Despite the large potential impacts of ocean warming on marine mammals, the global vulnerability of marine mammals to global warming is still poorly understood.[98]

Marine mammals have evolved to live in oceans, but climate change is affecting their natural habitat.[99][100][101][102] Some species may not adapt fast enough, which might lead to their extinction.[103]

It has been generally assumed that the Arctic marine mammals were the most vulnerable in the face of climate change given the substantial observed and projected decline in Arctic sea ice. However, research has shown that the North Pacific Ocean, the Greenland Sea and the Barents Sea host the species that are most vulnerable to global warming.[98] The North Pacific has already been identified as a hotspot for human threats for marine mammals[104] and now is also a hotspot of vulnerability to global warming. Marine mammals in this region will face double jeopardy from both human activities (e.g., marine traffic, pollution and offshore oil and gas development) and global warming, with potential additive or synergetic effects. As a result, these ecosystems face irreversible consequences for marine ecosystem functioning.[98]

Marine organisms usually tend to encounter relatively stable temperatures compared with terrestrial species and thus are likely to be more sensitive to temperature change than terrestrial organisms.[105] Therefore, the ocean warming will lead to increased species migration, as endangered species look for a more suitable habitat. If sea temperatures continue to rise, then some fauna may move to cooler water and some range-edge species may disappear from regional waters or experienced a reduced global range.[105] Change in the abundance of some species will alter the food resources available to marine mammals, which then results in marine mammals' biogeographic shifts. Additionally, if a species cannot successfully migrate to a suitable environment, unless it learns to adapt to rising ocean temperatures, it will face extinction.

Arctic sea ice decline leads to loss of the sea ice habitat, elevations of water and air temperature, and increased occurrence of severe weather. The loss of sea ice habitat will reduce the abundance of seal prey for marine mammals, particularly polar bears.[106] There also may be some indirect effect of sea ice changes on animal heath due to alterations in pathogen transmission, effect on animals on body condition caused by shift in the prey based/food web, changes in toxicant exposure associated with increased human habitation in the Arctic habitat.[107]

Sea level rise is also important when assessing the impacts of global warming on marine mammals, since it affects coastal environments that marine mammals species rely on.[108]

Polar bears

A polar bear waiting in the Fall for the sea ice to form.
Section 'Climate change' not found

Dolphins

Dolphins are marine mammals with broad geographic extent, making them susceptible to climate change in various ways. The most common effect of climate change on dolphins is the increasing water temperatures across the globe. This has caused a large variety of dolphin species to experience range shifts, in which the species move from their typical geographic region to warmer waters.

In California, the 1982-83 El Niño warming event caused the near-bottom spawning market squid to leave southern California, which caused their predator, the pilot whale, to also leave. As the market squid returned six years later, Risso's dolphins came to feed on the squid. Bottlenose dolphins expanded their range from southern to central California, and stayed even after the warming event subsided.[109] The Pacific white-sided dolphin has had a decline in population in the southwest Gulf of California, the southern boundary of their distribution. In the 1980s they were abundant with group sizes up to 200 across the entire cool season. Then, in the 2000s, only two groups were recorded with sizes of 20 and 30, and only across the central cool season. This decline was not related to a decline of other marine mammals or prey, so it was concluded to have been caused by climate change as it occurred during a period of warming. Additionally, the Pacific white-sided dolphin had an increase in occurrence on the west coast of Canada from 1984 to 1998.[110]

In the Mediterranean, sea surface temperatures have increased, as well as salinity, upwelling intensity, and sea levels. Because of this, prey resources have been reduced causing a steep decline in the short-beaked common dolphin Mediterranean subpopulation, which was deemed endangered in 2003. This species now only exists in the Alboran Sea, due to its high productivity, distinct ecosystem, and differing conditions from the rest of the Mediterranean.[111]

In northwest Europe, many dolphin species have experienced range shifts from the region's typically colder waters. Warm water dolphins, like the short-beaked common dolphin and striped dolphin, have expanded north of western Britain and into the northern North Sea, even in the winter, which may displace the white-beaked and Atlantic white-sided dolphin that are in that region. The white-beaked dolphin has shown an increase in the southern North Sea since the 1960s because of this. The rough-toothed dolphin and Atlantic spotted dolphin may move to northwest Europe.[112] In northwest Scotland, white-beaked dolphins (local to the colder waters of the North Atlantic) have decreased while common dolphins (local to warmer waters) have increased from 1992 to 2003.[113] Additionally, Fraser's dolphin, found in tropical waters, was recorded in the UK for the first time in 1996.[112]

River dolphins are highly affected by climate change as high evaporation rates, increased water temperatures, decreased precipitation, and increased acidification occur.[109][114] River dolphins typically have a higher densities when rivers have a lox index of freshwater degradation and better water quality.[114] Specifically looking at the Ganges river dolphin, the high evaporation rates and increased flooding on the plains may lead to more human river regulation, decreasing the dolphin population.[109]

As warmer waters lead to a decrease in dolphin prey, this led to other causes of dolphin population decrease. In the case of bottlenose dolphins, mullet populations decrease due to increasing water temperatures, which leads to a decrease in the dolphins' health and thus their population.[109] At the Shark Bay World Heritage Area in Western Australia, the local Indo-Pacific bottlenose dolphin population had a significant decline after a marine heatwave in 2011. This heatwave caused a decrease in prey, which led to a decline in dolphin reproductive rates as female dolphins could not get enough nutrients to sustain a calf.[115] The resultant decrease in fish population due to warming waters has also influenced humans to see dolphins as fishing competitors or even bait. Humans use dusky dolphins as bait or are killed off because they consume the same fish humans eat and sell for profit.[109] In the central Brazilian Amazon alone, approximately 600 pink river dolphins are killed each year to be used as bait.[114] Another side effect of increasing water temperatures is the increase in toxic algae blooms, which has caused a mass die-off of bottlenose dolphins.[112]

Seals

Seals are another marine mammal that are susceptible to climate change. Much like polar bears, seals have evolved to rely on sea ice. They use the ice platforms for breeding and raising young seal pups. In 2010 and 2011, sea ice in the Northwest Atlantic was at or near an all-time low and harp seals that bred on thin ice saw increased death rates.[116] If ice becomes non-existent in their normal range, harp seals will have to shift more north to find suitable ice.[116] In the Hudson Bay, Canada, the body conditions of ringed seals were observed from 2003-2013. Aerial surveys showed a decline in ringed seal density, with the lowest occurrence of seals in 2013.[117] The lower ice coverage means more open water swimming for the ringed seals, which caused higher stress (cortisol) rates.[117] Low ovulation rate, low pregnancy rate, fewer pups in the Inuit harvest, and observations of sick seals was also seen over the course of the study.[117] Antarctic fur seals in South Georgia saw extreme reductions over a 20-year study, during which scientists measured increased sea surface temperature anomalies.[118] This cause was mostly due to reductions in Antarctic krill that forms the base of the trophic web, which eventually affected the fur seal breeding cycle.[118]

Coral bleaching

Bleached Staghorn coral in the Great Barrier Reef.

The warming ocean surface waters can lead to bleaching of the corals which can cause serious damage and/or coral death. Coral bleaching occurs when thermal stress from a warming ocean results in the expulsion of the symbiotic algae that resides within coral tissues and is the reason for the bright, vibrant colors of coral reefs.[46] A 1-2 degree C sustained increase in seawater temperatures is sufficient for bleaching to occur, which turns corals white.[119] If a coral is bleached for a prolonged period of time, death may result. In the Great Barrier Reef, before 1998 there were no such events. The first event happened in 1998 and after it they begun to occur more and more frequently so in the years 2016 - 2020 there were 3 of them.[120] A 2017 report, the first global scientific assessment of climate change impacts on World Heritage coral reefs, published by UNESCO, estimates that the coral reefs in all 29 reef-containing sites would exhibit a loss of ecosystem functioning and services by the end of the century if CO2 emissions are not curbed significantly.

Harmful algal blooms

Climate change and a warming ocean can increase the frequency and the magnitude of algal blooms. There is evidence that harmful algal blooms have increased in recent decades, resulting in impacts ranging from public health, tourism, aquaculture, fisheries, to ecosystems.[121] Such events may result in changes in temperature, stratification, light, ocean acidification, increased nutrients, and grazing.[122] As climate change continues, harmful algal blooms, known as HABs, will likely exhibit spatial and temporal shifts under future conditions.[122] Spatially, algal species may experience range expansion, contraction, or latitudinal shifts.[122] Temporally, the seasonal windows of growth may expand or shorten.[122]

Climate change contributes to warmer waters which makes conditions more favorable for algae growth in more regions and farther north.[123][124] In general, still, warm, shallow water, combined with high-nutrient conditions in lakes or rivers, increases the risk of harmful algal blooms.[125] Warming of summer surface temperatures of lakes, which rose by 0.34 °C decade per decade between 1985 and 2009 due to global warming, also will likely increase algal blooming by 20% over the next century.[126]

Although the drivers of harmful algal blooms are poorly understood, they do appear to have increased in range expansion and frequency in coastal areas since the 1980s.[127]: 16  The is the result of human induced factors such as increased nutrient inputs (nutrient pollution) and climate change (in particular the warming of water temperatures).[127]: 16  The parameters that affect the formation of HABs are ocean warming, marine heatwaves, oxygen loss, eutrophication and water pollution.[128]: 582 

Economic effects

Effects on fisheries

The change in temperature and decrease in oxygen is expected to occur too quickly for effective adaptation of affected species.[129] Fishes can migrate to cooler places, but there are not always appropriate spawning sites.[129]

Fisheries are affected by climate change in many ways: marine aquatic ecosystems are being affected by rising ocean temperatures,[130] ocean acidification[131] and ocean deoxygenation, while freshwater ecosystems are being impacted by changes in water temperature, water flow, and fish habitat loss.[132] These effects vary in the context of each fishery.[133] Climate change is modifying fish distributions[134] and the productivity of marine and freshwater species. Climate change is expected to lead to significant changes in the availability and trade of fish products.[135] The geopolitical and economic consequences will be significant, especially for the countries most dependent on the sector. The biggest decreases in maximum catch potential can be expected in the tropics, mostly in the South Pacific regions.[135]: iv 

The impacts of climate change on ocean systems has impacts on the sustainability of fisheries and aquaculture, on the livelihoods of the communities that depend on fisheries, and on the ability of the oceans to capture and store carbon (biological pump). The effect of sea level rise means that coastal fishing communities are significantly impacted by climate change, while changing rainfall patterns and water use impact on inland freshwater fisheries and aquaculture.[136] Increased risks of floods, diseases, parasites and harmful algal blooms are climate change impacts on aquaculture which can lead to losses of production and infrastructure.[135]

Solutions

Calculations prepared in or before 2001 from a range of climate models under the SRES A2 emissions scenario, which assumes no action is taken to reduce emissions and regionally divided economic development.
The geographic distribution of surface warming during the 21st century calculated by the HadCM3 climate model if a business as usual scenario is assumed for economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions. In this figure, the globally averaged warming corresponds to 3.0 °C (5.4 °F).

The solution to climate change impacts on the ocean involves global-scale reduction in greenhouse gas emissions (climate change mitigation), as well as regional and local mitigation and management strategies moving forward.[45]

See also

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