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Instead of a primary system, candidates for the special election were chosen by each party's state central committee.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|last=Chief|first=Dan Boyd {{!}} Journal Capitol Bureau|title=Breaking: Haaland reportedly picked as Biden's interior secretary|url=https://www.abqjournal.com/1527840/haaland-reportedly-picked-as-bidens-interior-secretary.html|access-date=2020-12-17|website=www.abqjournal.com|language=en-US}}</ref> The Republican Party nominated their candidate, State Senator [[Mark Moores]], on March 27, 2021.<ref>{{Cite web|title=EVENTS|url=https://www.bcgop.org/|access-date=2021-03-27|website=Bcgop|language=en}}</ref> The Democratic Party nominated State Representative [[Melanie Stansbury]] in a runoff on March 31, 2021 after trailing State Senator [[Antoinette Sedillo Lopez]] by more than 15 percentage points in the first round of voting.<ref name="Stans">{{Cite web|title=Stansbury makes come-from-behind victory in CD1 race|url=https://www.abqjournal.com/2375616|access-date=2021-03-31|website=www.abqjournal.com|language=en-US}}</ref>
Instead of a primary system, candidates for the special election were chosen by each party's state central committee.<ref name=":0">{{Cite web|last=Chief|first=Dan Boyd {{!}} Journal Capitol Bureau|title=Breaking: Haaland reportedly picked as Biden's interior secretary|url=https://www.abqjournal.com/1527840/haaland-reportedly-picked-as-bidens-interior-secretary.html|access-date=2020-12-17|website=www.abqjournal.com|language=en-US}}</ref> The Republican Party nominated their candidate, State Senator [[Mark Moores]], on March 27, 2021.<ref>{{Cite web|title=EVENTS|url=https://www.bcgop.org/|access-date=2021-03-27|website=Bcgop|language=en}}</ref> The Democratic Party nominated State Representative [[Melanie Stansbury]] in a runoff on March 31, 2021 after trailing State Senator [[Antoinette Sedillo Lopez]] by more than 15 percentage points in the first round of voting.<ref name="Stans">{{Cite web|title=Stansbury makes come-from-behind victory in CD1 race|url=https://www.abqjournal.com/2375616|access-date=2021-03-31|website=www.abqjournal.com|language=en-US}}</ref>


Stansbury is heavily favored to win this seat based on pre-election data because this is a somewhat [[safe seat]]. Therefore, her nomination could be argued to be [[tantamount to election|tantamount to appointment]].
Stansbury is heavily favored to win this seat based on pre-election data such as partisan lean and early voting data <!-- Citation: https://twitter.com/danboydnm/status/1399462965238288390?s=21 --> because this is a somewhat [[safe seat]]. Therefore, her nomination could be argued to be [[tantamount to election|tantamount to appointment]].
<!-- Read: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/new-mexico/1/ This statement is not biased because this 538 tracker says that the Democrats had a 99+% chance of holding in the general regular 2020 election. I didn't say the Republicans *can't* win, I just said that data now says it is unlikely. -->
<!-- Read: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/house/new-mexico/1/ This statement is not biased because this 538 tracker says that the Democrats had a 99+% chance of holding in the general regular 2020 election. I didn't say the Republicans *can't* win, I just said that data now says it is unlikely. -->


Revision as of 11:00, 1 June 2021

2021 New Mexico's 1st congressional district special election
← 2020 June 1, 2021 2022 →
New Mexico's 1st congressional district
  File:Senator Mark Moores.jpg
Candidate Melanie Stansbury Mark Moores Aubrey Dunn Jr.
Party Democratic Republican Independent
Incumbent U.S. Representative

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On March 16, 2021, Deb Haaland resigned her seat in the United States House of Representatives after being confirmed the day before by the United States Senate to serve as Secretary of the Interior in the Biden administration.[1] The following day, the election date was set for June 1, 2021.[2]

Background

Instead of a primary system, candidates for the special election were chosen by each party's state central committee.[3] The Republican Party nominated their candidate, State Senator Mark Moores, on March 27, 2021.[4] The Democratic Party nominated State Representative Melanie Stansbury in a runoff on March 31, 2021 after trailing State Senator Antoinette Sedillo Lopez by more than 15 percentage points in the first round of voting.[5]

Stansbury is heavily favored to win this seat based on pre-election data such as partisan lean and early voting data because this is a somewhat safe seat. Therefore, her nomination could be argued to be tantamount to appointment.

Democratic committee selection

Candidates

Selected

Eliminated in second round

Eliminated in first round

Declined

Endorsements

Georgene Louis
Notable individuals
State legislators
Victor Reyes
U.S. Representatives
Organizations
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez
Organizations
Melanie Stansbury
Notable individuals
Organizations

Results

Democratic convention results[30][5]
Candidate First round votes First round pct. Second round votes Second round pct.
Melanie Stansbury 43 21.61% 103 51.24%
Antoinette Sedillo Lopez 74 37.19% 97 48.26%
Randi McGinn 34 17.09% Eliminated
Victor Reyes 18 9.05% Eliminated
Selinda Guerrero 13 6.53% Eliminated
Georgene Louis 13 6.53% Eliminated
Francisco Fernández 2 1.01% Eliminated
Patricia Roybal Caballero 1 0.50% Eliminated
Abstained 1 0.50% 1 0.50%
Total 199 100% 201 100%

Republican committee selection

Candidates

Selected

Not selected

Withdrew before committee selection

Endorsements

Mark Moores
Organizations

Results

Republican convention results[38][39]
Candidate Votes Pct.
Mark Moores 49 40%
Eddy Aragon 34 28%
Elisa Martinez 20 17%
Jared Vander Dussen 7 6%
Ronnie Lucero 6 5%
Michaela Chavez 5 4%
Jonathan Gonzalez 0 0%
Total 121 100%

Libertarian committee selection

Candidates

Selected

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Certified write-in

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
Inside Elections[45] Solid D May 7, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] Likely D May 26, 2021

Endorsements

Melanie Stansbury (D)
Executive branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S Representatives
State officials
Individuals
Organizations
Mark Moores (R)
Executive branch officials
U.S Representatives
Newspapers
Organizations

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Melanie
Stansbury (D) 		Mark
Moores (R) 		Aubrey
Dunn (I) 		Chris
Manning (L) 		Undecided
RRH Elections/Elections Daily May 18–21, 2021 555 (LV) ± 4.2% 49% 33% 5% 3% 9%
Notes
  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear

Results

New Mexico's 1st congressional district special election, 2021
Party Candidate Votes %
Independent Aubrey Dunn Jr.
Libertarian Chris Manning
Republican Mark Moores
Democratic Melanie Stansbury
Total votes 100.00

References

  1. ^ "Biden taps Deb Haaland to be first Native American interior secretary". www.cbsnews.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  2. ^ "Vote set for June 1 to fill Haaland seat in New Mexico's 1st District". Roll Call. March 17, 2021. Retrieved April 15, 2021.
  3. ^ Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau. "Breaking: Haaland reportedly picked as Biden's interior secretary". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 17, 2020.
  4. ^ "EVENTS". Bcgop. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  5. ^ a b c "Stansbury makes come-from-behind victory in CD1 race". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved March 31, 2021.
  6. ^ a b c d Chief, Dan Boyd | Journal Capitol Bureau. "Candidates emerge for Haaland's U.S. House seat". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 22, 2020.
  7. ^ Fernández, Francisco (February 3, 2021). "EXCITING NEWS: Today, I proudly announce my candidacy for the Democratic nomination to represent our First Congressional District". Facebook. Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  8. ^ McKee, Chris (January 11, 2021). "Special Election: 1st Congressional District – Who's Running?". www.krqe.com. KRQE.
  9. ^ a b c Boyd, Dan (January 4, 2021). "ABQ lawmaker joins three others in bid for Haaland's seat". www.abqjournal.com. Albuquerque Journal.
  10. ^ Writer, Ryan Boetel | Journal Staff. "New Mexico lawyer joins possible House race". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved December 25, 2020.
  11. ^ a b Boyd, Dan (January 8, 2021). "Gov's office staffer, ex-land commissioner join CD1 fray". www.abqjournal.com. Albuquerque Journal.
  12. ^ Boetel, Ryan (January 27, 2021). "Rep. Roybal Caballero enters race for CD1 seat". www.abqjournal.com. Albuquerque Journal.
  13. ^ a b Chavez, Aliyah (March 29, 2021). "Pueblo woman running for New Mexico special election". Indian Country Today.
  14. ^ a b c "All Pueblo Council of Governors Backs Georgene Louis to Fill Congressional Seat Vacated by Deb Haaland". Native News Online. March 29, 2021.
  15. ^ a b c d "Haaland confirmation sets off mad scramble to claim her seat in Congress". Jewish Insider. March 16, 2021.
  16. ^ a b "Equality PAC Announces Endorsement of Victor Reyes for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District Special Election". January 25, 2021.
  17. ^ "Victory Fund Endorses 15 LGBTQ Candidates for 2021 Cycle; Victor Reyes Endorsed for U.S. Congress Special Election". victoryfund.org. January 27, 2021.
  18. ^ a b "Five National Groups Announce Endorsement of State Sen. Antoinette Sedillo López in NM-01". Common Dreams. March 25, 2021.
  19. ^ "Friends of the Earth Action endorses Antoinette Sedillo López for Congress". Friends of the Earth (US). March 29, 2021.
  20. ^ @NMWFP (March 26, 2021). "We are proud to announce we have completed our endorsement process for the open seat in NM CD1. Endorsement ranking decision was based on candidate scores consisting of..." (Tweet). Retrieved March 27, 2021 – via Twitter.
  21. ^ "As most of you know, Rep. Deb Haaland has been nominated for Interior Secretary. This will leave her seat in the House of Representatives open. We want Progressive Antoinette Sedillo Lopez to fill that seat!". Facebook. February 11, 2021. Retrieved February 11, 2021.
  22. ^ (@People4Bernie (March 8, 2021). "We are excited to endorse Antoinette Sedillo Lopez to fill Rep. Deb Haaland's vacant seat in Congress" (Tweet). Retrieved March 8, 2021 – via Twitter.
  23. ^ ("PDA Endorses Antoinette Sedillo-Lopez for Congress in NM-01".
  24. ^ "National Groups Announce Endorsement of State Sen. Antoinette Sedillo López in NM-01". March 25, 2021.
  25. ^ @Roots_Action (February 7, 2021). "If Deb Haaland is confirmed as Interior Secretary as expected, people across the United States will have an interest in filling her House seat with the most progressive new Congress Member possible. We think that's State Senator Antoinette Sedillo Lopez" (Tweet). Retrieved February 7, 2021 – via Twitter.
  26. ^ Contreras, Russell (April 1, 2021). "Dems pick white woman over Latinas, Native American for Haaland seat". Axios.
  27. ^ a b c d "New Mexico Democrats Set to Choose Their CD 1 Nominee: A Look at the Candidates and a Discussion of the Internal Politics". March 29, 2021.
  28. ^ "MELANIE STANSBURY - CLIMATE HAWKS VOTE". Climate Hawks Vote.
  29. ^ "314 ACTION FUND ENDORSES MELANIE STANSBURY FOR NEW MEXICO'S FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT". 314 Action. March 3, 2021.
  30. ^ Democrats, New Mexico (March 31, 2021). "DPNM Announces Runoff in SCC Vote to Determine Democratic Nominee in CD-1". New Mexico Democrats.
  31. ^ Boyd, Dan. "State Sen. Mark Moores enters congressional race". Albuquerque Journal.
  32. ^ Boetel, Ryan. "Mark Moores will be Republican CD1 candidate". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  33. ^ a b c d e f New Mexican, The Santa Fe. "New Mexico GOP to choose candidate for Congressional District 1 next week". www.santafenewmexican.com. Retrieved March 18, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: url-status (link)
  34. ^ Casaus, Phill. "GOP candidate enters race for 1st Congressional District seat". www.santafenewmexican.com. Retrieved February 2, 2021.
  35. ^ Martin, Lily. "Clovis High alum throwing hat in for NM seat". easternnewmexiconews.com. Retrieved February 7, 2021.
  36. ^ Dillon Mullan (March 28, 2021). "New Mexico GOP picks Moores as candidate for U.S. House". Santa Fe New Mexican.
  37. ^ David Weigel (March 27, 2021). "New Mexico Republicans chose nominee for House seat special election". Washington Post.
  38. ^ ap. "Sen. Mark Moores Wins Republican Nomination for New Mexico First Congressional District". www.krwg.org. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  39. ^ Writer, Ryan Boetel | Journal Staff. "Mark Moores will be Republican CD1 candidate". www.abqjournal.com. Retrieved March 27, 2021.
  40. ^ Boetel, Ryan. "Northwest NM war veteran tapped as Libertarian candidate in CD1 race". Albuquerque Journal.
  41. ^ "Laura Olivas". Ballotpedia. Retrieved May 29, 2021.
  42. ^ Lee, Morgan (May 4, 2021). "Candidates clash in New Mexico congressional election debate". Associated Press. Retrieved May 28, 2021.
  43. ^ "Campaign Finance:Statement of Intention". California Secretary of State. Retrieved May 28, 2021.
  44. ^ "Robert Ornelas". Ballotpedia. Retrieved May 28, 2021.
  45. ^ "2022 House Ratings". House Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. March 19, 2021. Retrieved March 20, 2021.
  46. ^ Kondik, Kyle (May 26, 2021). "Notes on the State of Politics: May 26, 2021". Retrieved May 26, 2021.
  47. ^ a b c Boetel, Ryan (May 25, 2021). "Biden endorses Stansbury in CD1 race". Albuquerque Journal.
  48. ^ Frazin, Rachel (May 17, 2021). "Haaland makes endorsement in race for her old House seat". The Hill.
  49. ^ a b c McFadden, Alyce (May 27, 2021). "New Mexico special election is 'big first test' for Democrats". www.opensecrets.org.
  50. ^ a b Emily Brooks (May 25, 2021). "Democrats nervous and GOP hopeful that New Mexico election is 2022 bellwether". Washington Examiner.
  51. ^ "Mondaire Jones Endorses Melanie Stansbury (NM-01) in Race to Replace Sec. Deb Haaland". www.rocklandreport.com. May 6, 2021.
  52. ^ Field, Nick (May 19, 2021). "NM-1: Democrats Face A Must-Win Special Election". Decision Desk HQ.
  53. ^ Contreras, Russell (April 1, 2021). "Dems pick white woman over Latinas, Native American for Haaland seat". Axios.
  54. ^ Emily Brooks (May 26, 2021). "Doug Emhoff to campaign for Democratic New Mexico candidate Melanie Stansbury". Denver Gazzette.
  55. ^ @AFTNM (April 15, 2021). "@AFTNM Endorses Melanie Stansbury For Congress, District 1! #nmpol .@StephanieLy1 @AFLCIO @NMFLaflcio @AFLCIO" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  56. ^ "MELANIE STANSBURY - CLIMATE HAWKS VOTE". Climate Hawks Vote.
  57. ^ "CONGRESSIONAL PROGRESSIVE CAUCUS PAC ENDORSES MELANIE STANSBURY IN NM-01 SPECIAL ELECTION". April 16, 2021.
  58. ^ "EMILY'S LIST ENDORSES MELANIE STANSBURY IN NEW MEXICO'S 1ST CD". April 12, 2021.
  59. ^ a b "End Citizens United // Let America Vote Endorse Melanie Stansbury in NM-01 Special Election". End Citizens United. April 28, 2021.
  60. ^ @fwaction (May 26, 2021). "Food & Water Action is proud to endorse @Melanie4NM for Congress in New Mexico's 1st District! Melanie is a fierce climate advocate who has fought to protect our lands and waters – and New Mexicans deserve a leader who will fight for a livable future!" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  61. ^ "Giffords Supports Melanie Stansbury as a Strong Leader on Gun Safety". April 29, 2021.
  62. ^ "Teamsters Local 492 Endorses Melanie Stansbury". PR Newswire. May 6, 2021.
  63. ^ "SUPPORT JSTREETPAC'S FIRST ENDORSEE OF THE 2022 CYCLE!". www.jstreetpac.org. Retrieved May 15, 2021.
  64. ^ Cama, Timothy (April 20, 2021). "LCV endorses Democratic nominee for Haaland seat". E&E News.
  65. ^ "NASW-PACE has endorsed Melanie Stansbury @MelanieforNM in the special election for New Mexico's 1st Congressional District". Facebook. May 13, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  66. ^ "NEA-NM recommends Melanie Stansbury for CD 1" (PDF). www.nmnn.net. May 12, 2021.
  67. ^ "National Wildlife Federation Action Fund Endorses Melanie Stansbury for U.S. House". www.nwfactionfund.org.
  68. ^ "Endorsement letter for Melanie Stansbury". Facebook. May 12, 2021. Retrieved May 17, 2021.
  69. ^ "New Mexico Working Families Announces Endorsement in First Congressional District". April 9, 2021.
  70. ^ a b "A Pro-Life Opportunity in New Mexico Special Election". NRL News Today. April 30, 2021.
  71. ^ "314 ACTION FUND ENDORSES MELANIE STANSBURY FOR NEW MEXICO'S FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT". 314 Action. March 3, 2021.
  72. ^ Ellen Morrissey (May 26, 2021). "Melanie Ann Stansbury (D), Mark Moores (R), four others running in New Mexico's 1st Congressional District special election on June 1". Ballotpedia News.
  73. ^ Ronny Jackson and Mark Moores for Congress (June 1, 2021). "Join Ronny Jackson in supporting Mark Moores in his CRITICAL special election on June 1st!". Winred.
  74. ^ "Editorial: CD1 offers distinct choices, but Moores brings pragmatic stances to address ABQ and NM crime, energy, education and economy woes". Albuquerque Journal. May 14, 2021.
  75. ^ Albuquerque Police Officers Association (May 2021). "Albuquerque Police Officers Association endorses Mark Moores for Congress". Republican Party of New Mexico.
  76. ^ "NFIB Endorses Mark Moores for Congress In NM-01 Special Election". NFIB.com. May 5, 2021.
  77. ^ Dillon Mullan (March 28, 2021). "New Mexico GOP picks Moores as candidate for U.S. House". Santa Fe New Mexican.
  78. ^ David Weigel (March 27, 2021). "New Mexico Republicans chose nominee for House seat special election". Washington Post.
Official websites for candidates
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