2013 Kenyan general election

Kenyan presidential election, 2013

4 March 2013

Incumbent President Mwai Kibaki PNU

General elections will be held in Kenya on 4 March 2013, electing the President, Senators, County Governors, Members of Parliament, Civic Wards and Women County Representatives. They will be the first elections held under the new constitution, which was passed during the 2010 referendum. They will also be the first general elections run by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission. Due to the terms of the new constitution, it could also be the first presidential election in Kenya where the candidates face a second round run-off between the first and the second if no-one achieves a simple majority in the first round or if the winner does not get 25% of the votes in at least 24 counties.

Background

Minister of Internal Security George Saitoti, who was expected to be a candidate in the election died in June 2012 in a helicopter crash. He was expected to fill a valuable role, having been Daniel Arap Moi and incumbent President Mwai Kibaki's second hand man. As campaigning unofficially started almost a year earlier and alliances were forming on largely ethnic grounds, his mixed Masai and Kikuyu heritage was seen as important in light of the violence that followed the 2007 presidential election.

Additionally, the ICC had issued arrest warrants for senior government figures as a result of the previous electoral violence.

Dates

Originally the dates of 14 August 2012 or December 2012 were planned for the election, depending on a court ruling to be issued. The court ruled that presidential and parliamentary elections should be held in March 2013.

The setting of this date also resulted in the resignation in September 2012 of several civil servants who wished to join politics as required by the elections Act

Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) Kits

Voter registration was to be carried out using Biometric Voter Registration (BVR) Kits which would reduce certain incidents of fraud due to the use of Biometrics for voter identification. The BVR kits arrived in the country on the 1 November 2012. The purchase of the BVR Kits was financed through a loan from Standard Chartered Kenya in a government-to-government deal involving Kenya and Canada made cheaper by a guarantee from the Canadian government. The Canadian government arranged to have its fully-owned parastatal, Canadian Commercial Corporation (CCC), sign a contract with the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC).

Voter Registration

Voter registration which was set to run for 30 days, started on the 19 November 2012. Problems were reported during the first few days of the registration exercise. These included availability of electricity, military operations in some areas and logistical challenges caused by rains. On the 27th of November the government announced that due to time and logistics constraints there would be no attempts to register Kenyan voters in the diaspora

Presidential election

Prospective candidates

The following are some of the candidates who have made public their intentions to run or speculated to run by media analysts and polling organisations:

• Raila Odinga current Prime Minister of Kenya
• Kalonzo Musyoka current Vice President of Kenya
• Uhuru Kenyatta the other Deputy Prime Minister of the republic of Kenya
• Joseph Nyagah Cooperative Minister of the republic of Kenya
• William Ruto MP for Eldoret North Constituency
• George Luchiri Wajackoyah Diaspora Candidate
• Martha Karua MP for Gichugu Constituency
• Eugene Wamalwa MP for Saboti Constituency
• Mutava Musyimi current Gachoka MP
• Kingwa Kamencu Oxford Rhodes Scholar
• James ole Kiyiapi Permanent Secretary Education
• Musalia Mudavadi The other Deputy PM
• Peter Kenneth Current MP Gatanga Constituency
• Paul Muite Former MP Kabete Constituency.
• Raphael Tuju Former MP Rarieda Constituency.
• Joseph Hellon Jazz Maestro. Chair Placenta Party.
• Dennis Nzioka Gay Kenya Public Relations Director.
• Cyrus Jirongo Current MP Lugari Constituency.

Integrity Court Case

A court case was filed seeking to restrain the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission from accepting the nomination of any candidate who has been committed to trial for serious criminal charges under the Kenyan and International law.

Mr Uhuru Kenyatta and Mr William Ruto are facing charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court (ICC) following the International Criminal Court investigation in Kenya as a result of the 2007–2008 post-election violence.

On 29th November 2012, the petitioners in withdrew the case.

Gubernatorial elections

Nairobi County

Prospective candidates

The following are some of the candidates who have made public their intentions to run:

• John Gakuo
• Philip Kisia
• Timothy Muriuki
• Ferdinand Waititu
• Jimnah Mbaru
• Evans Kidero
• Margaret Wanjiru

Machakos County

Prospective candidates

The following are some of the candidates who have made public their intentions to run:

• Mutua Katuku
• Alfred Mutua
• Wavinya Ndeti
• Titus Ndundu
• William Kivuvani
• Mutule Kilonzo

Senate elections

Prospective candidates

The following are some of the candidates who have made public their intentions to run:

• Agnes Awuor, a Roman Catholic nun who was active in the United States, candidates for the Siaya Senate seat.

Constituency elections

Prospective candidates

The following are some of the candidates who have made public their intentions to run or speculated to run by media analysts and polling organisations:

• Tony Sisule- a United Nations staffer speculated to be candidate for M. P in Langata Constituency .

Opinion polling

First round

Pollster	Date	Sample	1st	2nd	3rd	Others
Ipsos-Synovate	24–28 September 2012	2,229	Raila Odinga 36%	Uhuru Kenyatta 30%	Musalia Mudavadi 7%	William Ruto 6%, Kalonzo Musyoka 5%, Martha Karua 3%
Infotrak Research & Consulting	17–18 August 2012	2,400	Raila Odinga 35%	Uhuru Kenyatta 17.3%	William Ruto 9.9%	Kalonzo Musyoka 8.8%, Musalia Mudavadi 8.5%, Martha Karua 5%, Peter Kenneth 2%, Eugene Wamalwa 1.7%, Raphael Tuju 1.3%, Undecided 8.8%
Ipsos-Synovate	6–17 April 2012	2,000	Raila Odinga 34%	Uhuru Kenyatta 22%	Kalonzo Musyoka 9%	William Ruto 8% , Martha Karua 5% , Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Will Not Vote 1%, Others 1%, DK/NR 2%, Undecided 10%
Infotrak Harris Poll	11–13 March 2012	2,400	Raila Odinga 42%	Uhuru Kenyatta 22%	Kalonzo Musyoka 9%	Martha Karua 5% , William Ruto 5% , Musalia Mudavadi 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 1%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 5%
Ipsos-Synovate	12–19 December 2011	2,000	Raila Odinga 32%	Uhuru Kenyatta 22%	Kalonzo Musyoka 10%	William Ruto 6%, Martha Karua 4%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%, Peter Kenneth 1%, Raphael Tuju 1%, Undecided 17%
Ipsos-Synovate	15–23 October 2011	2,000	Raila Odinga 34%	Uhuru Kenyatta 24%	William Ruto 10%	Kalonzo Musyoka 9%, Martha Karua 5%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Infotrak Harris Poll	20–23 September 2011	1,500	Raila Odinga 41%	Uhuru Kenyatta 19%	Martha Karua 11%	Kalonzo Musyoka 9%, William Ruto 7%, Eugene Wamalwa 2%
Smart Octopus Limited	15 August 2011	--	Raila Odinga 26%	Uhuru Kenyatta 23%	William Ruto 19%	Martha Karua 3%, Kalonzo Musyoka 16%, Eugene Wamalwa 6%
Synovate Research Reinvented	July 15, 2011	3,070	Raila Odinga 42.6%	Uhuru Kenyatta 21.4%	Kalonzo Musyoka 9.5%	William Ruto 8.3%, Martha Karua 7.8%
Synovate Research Reinvented	15 April 2011	--	Raila Odinga 38%	Kalonzo Musyoka 18%	Uhuru Kenyatta 13%	William Ruto 8%, Martha Karua 6%, Eugene Wamalwa 3%

Second round (Run-Off)

Pollster	Date	Sample	1st	2nd	Undecided
Ipsos-Synovate	24–28 September 2012	2,229	Uhuru Kenyatta 50%	Raila Odinga 42%	8%
Ipsos-Synovate	24–28 September 2012	2,229	Musalia Mudavadi 47%	Raila Odinga 44%	8%

Violence

In mid-August 2012, tribal conflict led to the highest death toll through deliberate killings since the last election. Though the specific instance had no clear motive, past clashes have occurred due to the alleged misuse of land and water resources, however this instance was reportedly larger in scale and intensity. Speculation was made of links to the election amid an increase in political tensions. After the assassination of Kenyan Muslim cleric Aboud Rogo on 27 August 2012, violent riots occurred in Mombasa, claiming at least four people's lives. Richard Lough argued that the riots revealed deep social, political and sectarian divides experiencing in Kenya and that these could cause more violence ahead of a presidential election in 2013.