2006 United States Senate elections

Senate Seats up for election:

  Republican incumbent

  Retiring Republican

  Democratic incumbent

  Retiring Democrat

  Retiring Independent

  No election

Elections for the United States Senate will be held on November 7, 2006, with 33 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate being contested. Senators are elected for six-year terms with one third of the Senate seats up for a vote every two years. The term of office for those elected in 2006 will be from January 3, 2007 until January 3, 2013. Those Senators who were elected in 2000 (known as "Class 1") will be seeking reelection or retiring in 2006.

The 2006 House election is scheduled for the same date as the Senate election, as well as many state and local elections, including those for 36 state governors.

Major parties

The Senate is currently composed of 55 Republicans, who have been in the majority since 2003, 44 Democrats, and 1 Democratic-leaning Independent (former Republican Jim Jeffords of Vermont). Jeffords is retiring and his seat is one of the 33 seats being contested, while another 17 are held by Democrats and 15 are held by Republicans.

To control 51 seats, a majority in the Senate, Democrats would need a net gain of 6 seats (presuming that independent candidate Bernie Sanders wins Jim Jeffords' seat in Vermont and continues to caucus with the Democrats as he does in the House). Republicans need to hold only 50 seats after the election to have a majority because the Vice President (currently Republican Dick Cheney) breaks all tie votes in his role as President of the Senate.

To gain a "working majority" of 60 members – the number of votes required to break a filibuster – Republicans would need a net gain of 5 seats. However, more conservative Democrats may also contribute to the "working majority", and more liberal Republicans may go against it.

Non-partisan election analyses

CQPolitics.com

CQPolitics.com, an independent, non-partisan election analysis newsletter, as of August 11, 2006, made the following analysis:

15 Republican seats and 18 Democratic seats are up for election (40 Republican Seats and 27 Democratic seats not up for election). Of these 33 seats:

• 10 Democratic seats and 7 Republican seats are Safe and therefore not considered competitive.
• 2 Republican seats are considered Republican Favored and 4 Democratic seats are considered Democratic Favored, meaning that while these races are not competitive at the moment, they could likely become competitive.
• 3 Republican seats are considered Leans Republican and 4 Democratic seats are considered Leans Democratic, as they are politically competitive, yet one party has a distinct advantage.
• 2 Republican seats (those of Conrad Burns of Montana and Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island) and 1 Democratic seat (that of retiring Senator Mark Dayton of Minnesota) are rated as No Clear Favorite.
• 1 Republican seat, currently held by Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, is considered Leans Democratic.

A complete chart of all races categorized appears here.

Cook Political Report

This online newsletter is run by DC analyst Charlie Cook, and has a similar format to CQ Politics. Of the 33 races, Cook rates:

• 10 Democratic seats and 7 Republican seats as Safe and currently not competitive.
• 2 Democratic seats (including the one held by Jeffords) and 1 Republican seat as Favored to hold party affiliation, meaning that the races are not competitive as of yet, but have the potential to become competitive.
• 5 Democratic seats and 1 Republican seat as Leaning towards the parties that currently hold each seat. This means that the races are competitive but one candidate has an edge over the other.
• 1 Democratic seat and 6 Republican seats as Toss-Ups, which are in the most competitive tier of races.

Specific ratings of each race appear here

Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball

In early August, Larry Sabato predicted a pro-Democratic shift of 3-6 Senate seats. He made the same prediction in early September, and described the breakdown as follows:

• D Seats Leaning D: Maryland, Minnesota, Nebraska, N.J., Vermont, Washington
• D Seats Tossup: None
• D Seats Leaning R: None
• R Seats Leaning R: Tennessee, Virginia
• R Seats Tossup: Misssouri, Ohio, Rhode Island
• R Seats Leaning D: Montana, Pennsylvania

The Democrats need a net gain of six seats to regain control of the Senate. Sabato summarized those chances, in August:

• Probable D Senate pick-ups: Pennsylvania, Montana
• Leaning D Senate pick-ups: Missouri, Rhode Island, Ohio
• The "Sixth Seat" needed to switch the Senate to D control, in order of probability: Tennessee, Arizona, Virginia (all currently R favored, though Tennessee is the most competitive; some argue that Virginia might now be the most competitive race due to the recent "macaca" controversy by the incumbent, George Allen.)

Rasmussen Reports

As of early September, Rasmussen Reports has updated their "Senate Balance of Power", showing a much tighter race in October. The breakdown is as follows:

• 1 Republican seat leaning Democratic: Pennsylvania
• 5 Republican seats as toss-ups: Missouri, Montana, Ohio, Rhode Island, Tennessee
• 1 Republican seat leaning Republican: Virginia
• 1 Democratic seat as toss-up: New Jersey
• 4 Democratic seats leaning Democratic: Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington
• 8 Republican seats and 13 Democratic seats as safe. [2]

Races to watch

Incumbent senators have a high rate of re-election, even when their party affiliation is at odds with other political trends of their state. The most competitive races tend to be those where the incumbent has retired or has served only one term.

The market-based outcomes of an independent public trading exchange suggests as of September 5, 2006, that the most vulnerable Republican seats are Ohio, Montana, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island, which are likely to switch control. In addition, in Missouri and Tennessee the chance that the Republicans will keep the seat is less than two out of three. Likewise, New Jersey falls below the two-out-of-three threshold for safekeeping by Democrats, and in Connecticut the market suggests a close call whether Joseph Lieberman will beat the Democratic nominee.

Additional special elections that are held due to the death or resignation of Senators in the interim would change the party balances listed above.

Retiring Senators

Mark Dayton (D) of Minnesota

Main article: Minnesota United States Senate election, 2006

On February 9, 2005, Senator Dayton announced that he would not seek a second term in the Senate. Hennepin County Attorney Amy Klobuchar is the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL) nominee.

Republican Representative Mark Kennedy secured major GOP endorsements in early 2005 and does not face any serious challengers in the September primary. Kennedy has benefited from high-profile Republicans coming to do fundraisers for him, including Vice President Dick Cheney in July 2005 and President George W. Bush in December 2005.

Polls show a very competitive race but Klobuchar has been the frontrunner in every publicly released poll since mid-2005. An August 28th Rasmussen Reports poll has Klobuchar at 47%, Kennedy at 40% and Fitzgerald at 8% [3].

Bill Frist (R) of Tennessee

Main article: Tennessee United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Bill Frist of Tennessee, the current Majority Leader, has previously promised to leave the Senate when his second term ends in January 2007, and is widely considered to have presidential aspirations for 2008.

Although Tennessee's electoral votes went to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, a majority of the elective offices are held by Democrats. Tennessee also has more registered Democratic voters than Republican voters and sends more Democrats to the U.S. House of Representatives than Republicans.

The Democratic nominee is Representative Harold Ford, Jr. and the Republican nominee is Bob Corker, both of whom won primaries on August 3. Corker, former mayor of Chattanooga and 1994 Senate candidate, is well funded and advertised heavily in the western portion of the state during his primary campaign, where he was relatively unknown before this race. Ford currently represents Tennessee's 9th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives. Like Corker, Ford has shown exceptional fundraising prowess, and the race promises to be an expensive one for both parties.

Recent polls show that this race is highly competitive. A September 5th Rasmussen Reports poll reveals that Corker's lead over Ford has dropped significantly. He now leads by only 1%, 45% to 44%, which is well within the margin of error [4]. Due to this impressive gain by Ford, national Democrats are now eyeing this race as the "sixth seat" that they can win to gain control of the senate.

Jim Jeffords (I) of Vermont

Main article: Vermont United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont left the Republican Party to become an independent soon after being reelected as a Republican in the 2000 election. On April 20, 2005, he declared he would not seek another term. The national Democratic Party is unlikely to support any party candidate because several leading members have already endorsed independent and democratic socialist Representative Bernie Sanders.

Governor James "Jim" Douglas and Lieutenant Governor Brian Dubie both considered running but ultimately opted out.

Cris Ericson, Republican, Greg Parke, Republican, and Rich Tarrant, Republican are competing against each other in the Vermont Primary Election on September 12, 2006 for an opportunity to run against Bernie Sanders in the General Election in November 2006.

Bernie Sanders already represents Vermont in his House seat (there is only one Congressional district in the state of Vermont).

Paul Sarbanes (D) of Maryland

Main article: Maryland United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Paul Sarbanes announced on March 11 2005 that he would retire rather than run for re-election in 2006. Sarbanes' seat was previously considered safe, as Maryland is a Democratic-leaning state. Former NAACP president Kweisi Mfume, American University professor Allan Lichtman, Rep. Ben Cardin, businessman Josh Rales, and former Baltimore County executive and state senator Dennis F. Rasmussen have announced their candidacies for the Democratic nomination. Thirteen other minor Democratic candidates are in the race. Lieutenant Governor Michael S. Steele, a Republican, announced his candidacy on October 25 2005, and is currently the only major contender for the Republican nomination. Attorney Kevin Zeese has received the nomination of the Populist, Green and Libertarian Parties. Polls show Steele running competitively against all the Democrats running. Democrats have a natural advantage in Maryland, with its large number of African-American voters and government workers. But Steele's personal popularity and potential appeal with his fellow blacks puts this race in doubt. Both parties suffered setbacks in the campaign. Two staffers from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee were discovered to have illegally obtained Steele's credit report [5]. The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports (August 9) shows Mfume leading Steele 46% to 44%, while Cardin leads Steele by 47% to 42%.

Notable Democratic incumbent races

Daniel Akaka of Hawaii

Main article: Hawaii United States Senate election, 2006

In a surprise, liberal Democratic Senator Daniel Akaka faces a competitive reelection this year. He is being challenged in the Democratic primary by Congressman Ed Case. Case is a political maverick in Hawaii circles, being an opponent of the state's Democratic machine and compiling a somewhat more moderate voting record than the rest of the state's Congressional Democrats. With the state's Democratic establishment firmly supporting Akaka's reelection, Case is relying on a coalition of anti-machine Democrats, unaffiliated voters, and some crossover Republicans to vote for him in the Democratic primary. An August 11 poll shows Akaka leading Case by 47% to 45%.

Maria Cantwell of Washington

Main article: Washington United States Senate election, 2006

In 2000, wealthy internet executive and former Congresswoman Maria Cantwell unseated then-Senator Slade Gorton by some 2,200 votes, the smallest margin in state history, after spending a portion of her personal fortune. She has drawn fire from liberals in Washington for some of her votes, including her vote for the Iraq War Resolution, for the confirmation of Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and against the attempted filibuster of Samuel Alito. Mark Wilson and Hong Tran filed as primary challengers because of these votes. In 2005 she voiced support in Washington State Democratic Party circles for the John Murtha Resolution on redeploying American armed forces from Iraq. In early July, Wilson announced that he will pull out of the race, endorse Cantwell, and campaign full time on her behalf, after Maria Cantwell offered him a salary of $8000 a month.

Former Safeco CEO Mike McGavick is the GOP candidate supported by the chairwoman of the Washington State Republican Party, Diane Tebelius. He was once Gorton's Chief of Staff and is believed to have similar moderate-to-conservative politics. The other announced Republican candidates for the Senate seat are paralegal C. Mark Greene, and police officer and minister Brad Klippert.

On March 9 2006, Aaron Dixon, former captain of the Seattle chapter of the Black Panther Party announced his intention to seek the Green Party's nomination for U.S. Senate, challenging Senator Cantwell on her continued support for the U.S. presence in Iraq and the USA PATRIOT Act. The Libertarian Party nominated Western Washington University business instructor Bruce Guthrie as its candidate in April.

An August 15 poll from Rasmussen Reports has Cantwell in a 46% to 40% lead. As a result of the shrinking lead Cantwell has, Rasmussen Reports has shifted the race from Democrat to Leans Democrat.

Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut

Main article: Connecticut United States Senate election, 2006

Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut was originally thought to be a shoo-in, but his reelection prospects have been complicated by political cross-currents. Lieberman has drawn fire from the more progressive elements within his party for his continual support for the foreign policy of President George W. Bush and for statements that he has made in which he has criticized other Democrats for "undermining the President" during a time of war. Greenwich telecom-networking businessman Ned Lamont declared his candidacy for the Democratic nomination in March, and went on to receive 33.4% of the nomination vote at the Democratic state convention in May, more than twice the 15% needed to force a primary.

Lamont defeated Lieberman for the Democratic nomination in the August 8 primary (Lieberman 51.8%; Lieberman 48.2%). Lieberman has decided to remain in the race as a "petitioning candidate," having announced on July 3, 2006 that he would begin collecting the necessary signatures to run as an independent in the event he loses the primary. He has also filed to create a new independent party, "Connecticut for Lieberman."

Challenging Lamont and Lieberman in the general election is Republican Alan Schlesinger, former mayor of Derby and a former state Representative. Schlesinger has a history of winning crossover Democratic voters, but has never run in a large constituency. Schlesinger was recently embarrassed when it was revealed that he was thrown out of a casino for counting cards under an assumed name, leading to speculation that he may withdraw from the race.

Polls for the general election have yielded mixed results. An August 21 poll by The American Research Group and an August 22 poll by Rasmussen Reports both showed Lieberman leading Lamont by two points (44%-42% and 45%-43%, respectively), a statistical dead heat. However, an August 17 Quinnipiac University poll showed Lieberman leading Lamont by 12 points and an August 29 Zogby poll showed him leading by 10 points. Schlesinger trails in all polls by overwhelming margins.

Robert Menendez of New Jersey

Main article: New Jersey United States Senate election, 2006

Jon Corzine, elected to the Senate in 2000, was elected Governor of New Jersey in 2005. Corzine appointed Rep. Robert Menendez to serve the last year of the Senate term, and Menendez was sworn in to fill Corzine's vacancy on January 18 2006. Republican State Senator Thomas Kean, Jr. (the son of former Governor and 9/11 Commission Chairman Thomas Kean) announced on March 25 2005 that he would run for the U.S. Senate. Both nominees have problems within their own parties; Menendez has alienated many fellow Democrats with his aggressiveness and abrasiveness, while Kean is unpopular with party conservatives who consider him to be too liberal. Menendez's 42% approval rating may also be a sign of vulnerability for the incumbent, especially since his disapproval is at 43%[6]. Although incumbents with under 50% ratings in polls are generally considered vulnerable, this standard perhaps doesn't apply to Menendez as he was appointed just recently and is not well known state-wide, a far different situation from most incumbents. President George W. Bush is highly unpopular in the state, but Governor Corzine's early performance in office has met with widespread disapproval, contributing to the large number of undecided voters. The latest poll by Rasmussen Reports gives Kean a 5-point advantage at 44% and Menendez with 39% [7]. Also, an August 30 poll by FDU PublicMind puts Kean 43% ahead of Menendez 39% [8]. Due to the lackluster performance of Mr. Menendez, who has been repeatedly attacked as corrupt, in what is normally a reliable democratic state, rumors have been rampant that the New Jersey Democratic party may be considering a move similar to the one they made in 2002, when they replaced struggling incumbent Robert Torricelli with the more respected Frank Lautenberg.

Bill Nelson of Florida

Main article: Florida United States Senate election, 2006

As the only southern Democrat facing re-election, Senator Bill Nelson of Florida will draw major regional attention to this race. Florida also will elect a new governor in 2006, and the cost of two major campaigns in a large state could require that one of the Republican candidates have a high profile.

U.S. Representative Katherine Harris, who served as Secretary of State during the 2000 presidential election, was initially the clear favorite to win the Republican primary. Several potential candidates floated to challenge her in the primary decided against running, due to Harris's overwhelming name I.D. among Republican voters. Nelson is not particularly popular, and has made little impression on many Florida voters since his election to the Senate, but neither is he unpopular. By contrast, due to her controversial role in the 2000 election, Harris's name I.D. among the populace at large is overwhelmingly negative and her campaign has been badly damaged by a string of gaffes and mistakes, to the point that several high-profile Republicans, including Governor Jeb Bush, had expressed the desire that another candidate take her place. Republicans aren't optimistic about winning this race with Harris as the nominee and even Democrats admit being amazed at Harris's poor showing on the campaign trail.

The most recent polls have shown Nelson defeating Harris by a margin of nearly 2-to-1. The most recent Rasmussen poll gives Nelson a lead of 57% to 34%, the most recent Quinnipiac University poll gives him a lead of 61% to 24%, and the most recent Strategic Vision poll shows Nelson leading by 63% to 20%. Despite Republican criticism of Harris' refusal to drop out of the race, other prominent Republicans declined to run. Her only primary opponents were wealthy developer Peter Monroe, a former member of the Resolution Trust Corporation Oversight Board, attorney LeRoy Collins, Jr., son and namesake of a long-ago Democratic Governor, and Will McBride, a wealthy attorney and son-in-law of a Christian Broadcast station owner. None of them were well-known, though McBride's name greatly resembled that of Bill McBride, the Democratic nominee for Governor in 2002.

Harris won the primary, but with a plurality under 50%, having outspent her challengers 6-to-1.

Debbie Stabenow of Michigan

Main article: Michigan United States Senate election, 2006

In 2000, then-Congresswoman Debbie Stabenow unseated Spencer Abraham by a 50% to 48% margin after trailing during much of the campaign. This year, she is thought to be secure, with George W. Bush's popularity falling, and well-known Republicans backing away from running. Her opponent is Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, a former state legislator. In the August primary, he defeated former Detroit City Councilman Keith Butler by 61% to 39%. Michigan is home to many "Reagan Democrats" and voters are highly dissatisfied with the economy. Bouchard has begun to gain in the polls, although Stabenow remains the marginal favorite. In a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted after the August 8 primary and released August 16, Stabenow stood at 49% and Bouchard stands at 44% [9]. However, a newly released poll by Rasmussen Reports shows Stabenow at 51% and Bouchard at 43% [10].

Notable Republican incumbent races

George Allen of Virginia

Main article: Virginia United States Senate election, 2006

Senator George Allen of Virginia is expected by many to be a possible 2008 presidential candidate, which would almost certainly be harmed if he were to lose (or even have a tough race) for his seat in 2006. Former Secretary of the Navy James H. Webb is the Democratic nominee. Gail Parker, is the Independent Green party candidate.

Allen's approval rating has dropped to 47% in most recent polling, likely due to an embarassing incident in which he called a Webb volunteer of Indian descent a "macaca" and welcomed him to America, although he was born in Virginia. The newest Rasmussen poll has Allen at 47% and Webb at 42%, while the latest SurveyUSA poll has Allen at 48% and Webb at 45%., and the August 28 Wall Street Journal Zogby poll shows Webb leading 48% to 47% with Parker at 5%.

Conrad Burns of Montana

Main article: Montana United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Conrad Burns of Montana faced a strong challenge from current Governor Brian Schweitzer in 2000, being re-elected by a mere 3% in a state that went for Bush twice by margins of over 20%. This, combined with the increasing strength of the state Democratic party and accusations of ethical issues related to the Jack Abramoff scandal, made this a highly competitive race. Burns faces Democratic primary winner and state Senate President Jon Tester.

Burns has long had a history of verbal missteps, and this year is no exception. On July 27, he was forced to apologize after he verbally attacked out of state firefighters who were preparing to leave Montana after helping contain a summer forest fire and directly questioned their competence and skill; Burns was strongly criticized.

In an August 8 Rasmussen Reports poll, Senator Burns is bouncing back to tie with Jon Tester at 47%.

In early August, CQPolitics changed its rating on the race from "Leans Republican" to "No Clear Favorite."

Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island

Main article: Rhode Island United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, the most liberal Republican in the Senate, will face a primary challenge from conservative Cranston mayor Steve Laffey. Currently, the candidates for the Democratic nomination are former state Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse and former businessman Carl Sheeler.

Whitehouse, a former U.S. Attorney for Rhode Island who narrowly lost the 2004 Democratic primary for Governor, is supported by the Democratic establishment. Sheeler, a Marine vet combat and staff officer of the Persian Gulf War, while still the party's progressive party outsider and dark horse, has potential appeal to those favoring anti-war postures as well as some middle class Catholics due to his own modest background and plain-spoken approach. He is seeking to appeal to strong liberals and grass-roots opponents of the Iraq War.

Although Laffey is running as a conservative, he has come under fire from other conservatives for supporting tax increases as Mayor and increasing city spending. It is widely believed that the more liberal Chafee would have an easier time winning in the general election due to his appeal to independent voters. Chafee, however, may be damaged by a contentious primary that could potentially alienate Republican voters and give the Democratic nominee an advantage. The Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee has spent copious amounts of money backing Chafee, and, in an unprecedented move, they have announced that they will abandon the race if Laffey wins. The nominee will be decided on September 12.

Rasmussen Report's August 23rd poll has Whitehouse leading Chafee 44% to 42%. Whitehouse also leads Laffey 58% to 31%. Rasmussen Reports also has labelled this race from Leans Democrat to Toss-up [11].

Mike DeWine of Ohio

Main article: Ohio United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Mike DeWine of Ohio has uninspiring approval ratings and the current Coingate scandal involving the Ohio Republican Party and the widespread unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft could hurt his re-election chances. DeWine faced primary challenges from several more conservative Republicans, such as William G. Pierce, who are unhappy with his relatively centrist stances including his role as one of the Gang of 14 who intervened to stop a showdown over judicial nominations. Lawyer and Iraq War veteran Paul Hackett, who narrowly lost to Jean Schmidt in the second district on August 2 2005, said in October 2005 he would seek the Democratic nomination to challenge DeWine. U.S. Rep. Sherrod Brown announced his candidacy in October 2005. Hackett withdrew from the race on February 14 2006. Both DeWine and Brown won their primaries easily. Currently, Rasmussen Reports has Brown leading DeWine 45% to 42% and SurveyUSA has Brown leading 49% to 41%.

John Ensign of Nevada

Main article: Nevada U.S. Senate election, 2006

John Ensign of Nevada is running for re-election and was initially thought to be popular and politically secure. However, a recent poll shows he has only a 49% approval rating, which is usually not good for an incumbent going into an election year. In addition, his opponent, Jack Carter has the potential to benefit from his father, former President Jimmy Carter's name and fund-raising contacts. Although the exit of Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman from the Democratic primary removes a potentially powerful opponent for Ensign, this race recently became competitive. An August 28th Zogby/WSJ poll shows Ensign with a 48% to 45% lead over Carter, which is within the margin of error[12].

Jon Kyl of Arizona

Main article: Arizona United States Senate election, 2006

Wealthy real-estate developer Jim Pederson declared his intention to challenge Senator Jon Kyl of Arizona on September 14 2005. Pederson served as Arizona Democratic Party Chairman from 2001 to 2005 while spending millions of his own money to help Democrats modernize and to elect Janet Napolitano governor. Kyl got an unexpected boost when TIME listed him as one of the Ten Best Senators. According to an August 24 Rasmussen Reports poll, Kyl is leading Pederson 52% to 35% [13].

Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania

Main article: Pennsylvania United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is the Democrats' top target in 2006. He's a very conservative member of the Senate in a state that went for John Kerry in 2004 by 2.5 percent. In his last election in the year 2000, Santorum received 7,706 more votes than Al Gore, the Democratic candidate for President, who won Pennsylvania by 4.5 percent. Santorum ran against U.S. Rep. Ron Klink, a pro-life Democrat who wasn't supported by party contributors and was heavily outspent. Democrats believe that Santorum's seat is extremely vulnerable and are making it a priority for a pick-up in 2006. Popular state Treasurer Bob Casey, Jr. is the Democratic nominee and is fully supported by the party establishment, notwithstanding that like Santorum Casey is pro-life.

Polls had shown Casey leading Santorum by a 15 to 20 points, but the margin has slipped in recent months. A August 8 poll by Mulhenberg University poll shows Casey leading Santorum 45% to 39% in a three way race, and an August 15 poll by Quinnipiac University shows Casey leading 48% to 42%, with 11% undecided. An August 22 Rasmussen Reports poll has Casey with 48% and Santorum with 40% The Casey campaign expects to see the race to get even closer, with or without Green Party candidate Carl Romanelli, who some see as a spoiler for Casey due to his pro-choice stance on abortion.

Jim Talent of Missouri

Main article: Missouri United States Senate election, 2006

Senator Jim Talent of Missouri, who was elected to the four remaining years of this term in a 2002 special election, faces a strong Democratic challenge for his seat. Missouri will not hold an election for governor in 2006, making this the only major statewide race in a traditional battleground state. Talent was first elected by a very slim margin and now has a well-known challenger in state Auditor Claire McCaskill, a former Jackson County (Kansas City and suburbs) Prosecutor and the 2004 Democratic Gubernatorial nominee. Missouri is considered a "swing" state. McCaskill carries some political baggage from her 2004 loss. However, Talent was elected to the Senate after a near-successful gubernatorial bid, the same position McCaskill is in now. Recent polling by Rasmussen Reports puts Talent at 46% and McCaskill at 44%.

Complete list of Senate contests in 2006

State	Incumbent	Term	Competing candidates	Appro- val rating	Market predicted outcome	Vote % of winner in 2000
Arizona	Jon Kyl (R)	2	Jim Pederson (D) Richard Mack (L)	53%	(R) FAVORED (93%)	79%
California	Dianne Feinstein (D)	2	Dick Mountjoy (R) Don Grundman (AI) Todd Chretien (G)	53%	(D) SAFE (97%)	56%
Connecticut	Joe Lieberman sitting as (D) running for re-election as (CFL)	3	Ned Lamont (D) Alan Schlesinger (R) Ralph Ferrucci (G) John Mertens (IPC)	53%	LEANS (CFL) (65%)	63%
Delaware	Tom Carper (D)	1	Mike Protack (R) Jan Ting (R)	59%	(D) SAFE (97%)	56%
Florida	Bill Nelson (D)	1	Katherine Harris (R)	47%	(D) SAFE (99%)	51%
Hawaii	Daniel Akaka (D)	2	Ed Case (D) Jerry Coffee (R)	51%	(D) SAFE (96%)	73%
Indiana	Dick Lugar (R)	5	Steve Osborn (L)	59%	(R) SAFE (96%)	67%
Maine	Olympia Snowe (R)	2	Jean Hay Bright (D)	72%	(R) SAFE (96%)	69%
Maryland	Paul Sarbanes (D)	Ret.	Ben Cardin (D) Kweisi Mfume (D) Michael S. Steele (R) Kevin Zeese (G/L/P)	48%	(D) FAVORED (78%)	63%
Massachusetts	Edward Kennedy (D)	7	Kenneth Chase (R) Kevin Scott (R)	56%	(D) SAFE (98%)	73%
Michigan	Debbie Stabenow (D)	1	Mike Bouchard (R) Leonard Schwartz (L) Bret McAtee (C)	51%	(D) FAVORED (90%)	50%
Minnesota	Mark Dayton (DFL)	Ret.	Amy Klobuchar (DFL) Mark Kennedy (R) Ben Powers (C) Michael Cavlan (G) Robert Fitzgerald (I)	41%	(D) FAVORED (84%)	49%
Mississippi	Trent Lott (R)	3	Erik Fleming (D) Harold Taylor (L)	66%	(R) SAFE (96%)	66%
Missouri	Jim Talent (R)	0	Claire McCaskill (D) Frank Gilmour (L)	52%	TOSSUP (52% Republican hold)	51%)
Montana	Conrad Burns (R)	3	Jon Tester (D)	39%	(D) FAVORED (70%)	51%
Nebraska	Ben Nelson (D)	1	Pete Ricketts (R)	67%	(D) FAVORED (95%)	51%
Nevada	John Ensign (R)	1	Jack Carter (D)	50%	(R) FAVORED (86%)	56%
New Jersey	Robert Menendez (D)	0	Thomas Kean, Jr. (R) Greg Pason (S)	42%	LEANS (D) (58%)	50%
New Mexico	Jeff Bingaman (D)	4	Allen McCulloch (R)	59%	(D) SAFE (96%)	62%
New York	Hillary Rodham Clinton (D)	1	Jonathan Tasini (D) KT McFarland (R) John Spencer (R/C) Howie Hawkins (G) Jeff Russell (L) Bill Van Auken (SE)	61%	(D) SAFE (97%)	55%
North Dakota	Kent Conrad (D)	3	Dwight Grotberg (R)	69%	(D) SAFE (95%)	61%
Ohio	Mike DeWine (R)	2	Sherrod Brown (D)	42%	(D) FAVORED (70%)	60%
Pennsylvania	Rick Santorum (R)	2	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	48%	(D) FAVORED (84%)	52%
Rhode Island	Lincoln Chafee (R)	1	Sheldon Whitehouse (D) Carl Sheeler (D) Steve Laffey (R)	55%	(D) FAVORED (71%)	57%
Tennessee	Bill Frist (R)	Ret.	Bob Corker (R) Harold Ford, Jr. (D)	49%	LEANS (R) (60%)	65%
Texas	Kay Bailey Hutchison (R)	2	Barbara Ann Radnofsky (D)	61%	(R) SAFE (96%)	65%
Utah	Orrin Hatch (R)	5	Pete Ashdown (D) Scott Bradley (C) Julian Hatch (G)	60%	(R) SAFE (96%)	66%
Vermont	Jim Jeffords (I)	Ret.	Bernie Sanders (D) Cris Ericson (R) Richard Tarrant (R) Greg Parke (R) Peter Diamondstone (LU)	63%	(D) FAVORED (94%)	66%
Virginia	George Allen (R)	1	Jim Webb (D) Gail Parker (IG)	47%	(R) Favored (70%)	52%
Washington	Maria Cantwell (D)	1	Mike McGavick (R) Hong Tran (D) Aaron Dixon (G) Bruce Guthrie (L)	55%	(D) FAVORED (85%)	49%
West Virginia	Robert Byrd (D)	8	John Raese (R) Jesse Johnson (M)	65%	(D) SAFE (95%)	78%
Wisconsin	Herb Kohl (D)	3	Robert Lorge (R) Rae Vogeler (G)	56%	(D) SAFE (95%)	62%
Wyoming	Craig Thomas (R)	2	Dale Groutage (D)	61%	(R) SAFE (96%)	74%

Note: The colored bar on the far right indicates a seat likely to switch to that party.

See also

• United States House elections, 2006
• United States gubernatorial elections, 2006
• United States presidential election, 2008

External links

• 2006 Election Guide The New York Times