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2021 Russian legislative election

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2021 Russian legislative election
← 2016 On or before 19 September 2021 By 2026 →
All 450 seats to the State Duma
226 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered110,311,810 (July 2020)[1]
  File:Dmitry Medvedev 2016.jpg
Leader Dmitry Medvedev Gennady Zyuganov Vladimir Zhirinovsky
Party United Russia CPRF LDPR
Leader since 26 May 2012 14 February 1993 12 April 1991
Leader's seat None No. 1 in Federal List No. 1 in Federal List
Last election 343 seats, 54.2% 42 seats, 13.3% 39 seats, 13.1%
Current seats 335 42 40
Seats needed Steady Increase 184 Increase 186
 
Leader Sergey Mironov Aleksey Zhuravlyov Rifat Shaykhutdinov
Party A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth[2] Rodina Civic Platform
Leader since 22 February 2021[a][2] 29 September 2012 17 April 2015
Leader's seat No. 1 in Federal List Anna Neftekamsk
Last election 23 seats, 6.8%[b] 1 seat, 1.51% 1 seat, 0.2%
Current seats 23 1 1
Seats needed Increase 203 Increase 225 Increase 225
Incumbent Prime Minister

Mikhail Mishustin
Independent



Legislative elections will be held in Russia on or before 19 September 2021. At stake are 450 seats in the State Duma of the 8th convocation, the lower house of the Federal Assembly. Going into the elections, United Russia is the ruling party after winning the 2016 elections with 54.2% of the vote, and taking 343 seats.

The election day is the third Sunday of the month in which the constitutional term for which the State Duma of the 7th convocation was elected expires. The constitutional term for which the State Duma is elected is calculated from the date of its election. The day of election of the State Duma is the day of voting, as a result of which it was elected in the authorized composition. In case of early dissolution of the State Duma, the President must call a snap election. The election day in this case should be the last Sunday before the day when three months from the date of dissolution of the State Duma elapses.[3] In March 2020, it was proposed to hold a snap election in September 2020 due to constitutional reforms that were proposed, but this idea was abandoned.[4] However, after the amendments came into force, speculation about a snap election resumed.

14 parties are currently guaranteed access to the election ballot, of which only one (Yabloko) is unequivocally opposed to current President Vladimir Putin.[5][6][7]

Background

Pension reform

After the 2016 elections, United Russia was the most popular party, its rating ranged from 40% to 55%, while the rating of the main opposition parties (Communist and Liberal Democratic parties) was a little over 10%. The rating of A Just Russia was lower than the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma.

In June 2018, after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced a reform to raise the retirement age, the rating of the ruling United Russia party fell sharply and since then has fluctuated at around 34% to 31%. At the same time, the Communist Party's rating has grown and currently ranges from 15% to 18%. The rating of A Just Russia has also increased, but still it remains relatively small and fluctuates at around 5% to 6%. The rating of the Liberal Democratic Party has remained consistent at around 11% to 13%. The ratings of all non-parliamentary parties combined ranges around 9% to 11%, with exact numbers for each party unknown. When the share of people who answered they wouldn't vote and who are unsure are equally distributed among the parties, voter share for United Russia fluctuates around 41%, CPRF around 20%, LDPR around 15%, JR around 8% and other parties around 14%.

Constitutional reform and speculations about snap election

On 15 January 2020, during his Address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin proposed a number of amendments to the Constitution. Some amendments propose to weaken the presidential power and expand the powers of the Parliament. In particular, it is supposed to transfer the powers to form a government to the State Duma. This means that if the amendments are adopted, the next Cabinet will already be formed by the State Duma.[8]

Immediately after Putin's speech, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned along with the entire government. The next day, Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as the new Prime Minister. After that, there were suggestions about the dissolution of the State Duma and holding a snap election after the constitutional reform. At present, the State Duma can only be dissolved if it has refused the President's appointment of a Prime Minister three times in a row or passed a no-confidence motion against the government. According to sources from the Presidential Administration, the Constitution may be amended to allow self-dissolution of the State Duma. Some political scientists and MPs also hold opinions about the dissolution of the State Duma and holding a snap election.[9][10][11] However, this opinion is not shared by Andrey Klishas, head of the Legal Committee of the Federation Council, who is part of the working group on preparing amendments to the Constitution.[12]

On 10 March 2020, during the second reading of the draft law on amendments to the Constitution, MP Alexander Karelin introduced an amendment on holding a snap election.[13] The amendment gave the State Duma the opportunity to decide once to dissolve itself after the amendments were adopted. At first, the proposal was supported by a majority of deputies, but because there was no consensus on this issue (in particular, the Communist Party was against it), President Vladimir Putin urged not to dissolve the State Duma. Karelin then withdrew the amendment.[14][15] If the amendment were passed, snap election would have to be held on 13 or 20 September 2020.[16]

Despite the rejection of the self-dissolution amendment, the legal possibility for holding snap election remained (in the case of a three-time refusal of the State Duma to confirm the Prime Minister or Ministers, or a two-time vote of no confidence in the government). Immediately after the amendments to the Constitution came into force, speculation about possible early elections resumed. In particular, the leader of A Just Russia, Sergey Mironov, allowed early elections to be held, referring to the desire of the country's top leadership.[17] According to analysts, a snap election may be held in December 2020 or early 2021.[18]

COVID-19 pandemic

Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on politics

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the format of individual electoral events may be changed for health reasons. In particular, in 2020, a law was passed that allows early voting at polling stations two days before the official voting day. In addition, the polling stations themselves can be organized outside the premises. However, such a decision is not mandatory and can be made by the Central Election Commission within ten days after the election is scheduled.[19][20]

Electoral system

Under current election laws, the State Duma is elected for a term of five years, with parallel voting. Half of the seats (225) are elected by party-list proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold, with the other half elected in 225 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.[21]

In the proportional part, candidates can be nominated only by political parties. The lists of parties must include at least 200 and no more than 400 candidates. The list may also include candidates who are not members of the party, but their number should not exceed 50% of the number of candidates on the list. The party list of candidates should be divided into federal and regional parts. The regional part includes regional groups of candidates corresponding to the group of bordering federal subjects. The number of regional groups must be at least 35. No more than ten candidates may be included in the federal part of the list of candidates. The regional parts of the party list should cover the entire territory of Russia.[22]

In the majoritarian part, candidates can be nominated both by political parties and in the order of self-nomination. The political party must provide a list of candidates to the Central Election Commission, and the list must contain the name and number of the constituencies in which each candidate will run. Documents of candidates-self-nominees, unlike candidates from political parties, have to submit applications to District Election Commissions.[23] For registration, the self-nominated candidate must collect at least 3% of the signatures of voters residing in the constituency (or at least 3,000 signatures if the constituency has less than 100,000 voters).[24]

One and the same candidate can be nominated both in the party list and in the single-member constituency, however, in the case of its passage to the State Duma and the party list and in the single-member constituency, he will need to give up one of the places (usually refuse the seat received on the party list, as in this case the party does not lose this seat and simply will give another candidate).

Speculations about changes in the electoral system

After the pension reform, due to which the rating of the ruling party United Russia fell, rumors began to appear about an upcoming reform of the electoral system, which would allow United Russia to maintain a majority after the elections. Thus, it is assumed that the share of MPs elected by party lists may be reduced from 50% (225 seats) to 25% (112 or 113), and the rest will be elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting.[25] Such a system was introduced in three regions for the 2019 regional elections, namely in Khabarovsk Krai and Tula Oblast (in both of the 36 deputies, 12 are elected by party lists and 24 by single-member constituencies) and Mari El Republic (13 - by party lists and 39 - by single-member constituencies). Or, some political scientists suggest that the elections on the party lists may be canceled altogether and all 450 seats will be elected in single-member constituencies.[26] Such an electoral system operates in Moscow.

Parties

See also: Political parties in Russia

As of March 2021, 36 political parties were registered in Russia.[27] At the same time, parties represented in the State Duma (in this case, the seats must be obtained in the vote on the party list), parties that received more than 3% of the vote (by party list) in the previous elections or are represented at least in one of the regional parliaments (also by party list) are allowed to contest in the elections without collecting signatures. Other parties need to collect signatures to participate in the elections. The official list of parties entitled to participate in the elections without collection of signatures will be announced before the election, but after the 2020 regional elections, there are only 14 such parties.[28][29]

Parties represented in the State Duma

Party Party leader Leader since Leader's seat Ideology 2016 election Current seats
style="background: Template:United Russia/meta/color;"| United Russia Dmitry Medvedev 26 May 2012 None National conservatism / Statism / Russian nationalism 54.2%
343 / 450
338 / 450
style="background: Template:Communist Party of the Russian Federation/meta/color;"| Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov 14 February 1993 No. 1 in Federal List Communism / Marxism–Leninism 13.4%
42 / 450
43 / 450
style="background: Template:Liberal Democratic Party of Russia/meta/color;"| Liberal Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir Zhirinovsky 12 April 1991 No. 1 in Federal List Ultranationalism / Pan-Slavism / Fascism 13.2%
39 / 450
40 / 450
style="background: Template:A Just Russia/meta/color;"| A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth Sergey Mironov 27 October 2013 No. 1 in Federal List Social democracy / Left-wing nationalism / Anti-liberalism 6.2%
23 / 450
23 / 450
style="background: Template:Rodina (political party)/meta/color;"| Rodina Aleksey Zhuravlyov 29 September 2012 Anna Ultranationalism / National conservatism 1.51%
1 / 450
1 / 450
style="background: Template:Civic Platform (Russia)/meta/color;"| Civic Platform Rifat Shaykhutdinov 17 April 2015 Neftekamsk Economic liberalism / Liberal conservatism 0.2%
1 / 450
1 / 450

Parties represented in the regional parliaments

Parties represented in regional parliaments, which can also participate in legislative elections without collecting signatures (the list does not include parties already represented in the State Duma).

Party Party leader Leader since Ideology 2016 election
style="background: Template:Communists of Russia/meta/color;"| Communists of Russia Maxim Suraykin 22 April 2012 Communism / Marxism–Leninism / Stalinism 2.3%
style="background: Template:Yabloko/meta/color;"| Yabloko Nikolay Rybakov 15 December 2019 Social liberalism / Pro-Europeanism / Social democracy 2.0%
Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice Vladimir Burakov 29 July 2016 Social conservatism 1.8%
style="background: Template:Party of Growth/meta/color;"| Party of Growth Boris Titov 4 July 2016 Liberal conservatism 1.3%
style="background: Template:Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"/meta/color;"| Russian Ecological Party "The Greens" Anatoly Panfilov 6 July 2016 Environmentalism / Centrism / Green politics 0.8%
Communist Party of Social Justice Andrey Bogdanov 15 January 2020 Communism DNP
style="background: Template:New People (political party)/meta/color;"| New People Alexey Nechayev 8 August 2020 Progressivism / Communitarism New
style="background: Template:Green Alternative (Russia)/meta/color;"| Green Alternative Ruslan Khvostov 10 March 2020 Green politics / Environmentalism New

Public expression of interest

Existing parties

New parties

  • Businessman Sergei Polonsky: In January 2018, announced his intention to create a political party called "For All", with which he intends to participate in the 2021 election.[36] As of November 2024, the party does not yet exist.
  • In June 2019, the organizing committee for the creation of the party "Union of Just Forces of Russia" was formed. It is planned that the party will be registered in January 2019 and will take part in the elections.[37][35]
  • In January 2020, a number of regional politicians have announced the creation of a Federative Party to participate in the 2021 election.[38]
  • In January 2020, former Deputy of the State Duma Roman Khudyakov announced the creation of a party Decent Life, which will participate in the 2021 election.[39]
  • In February 2020, music producer Iosif Prigozhin said that he and his wife, singer Valeriya, plan to create the party "Strong Women", which will participate in the 2021 election.[40]
  • In July 2020, businessman Roman Putin, a great-nephew of President Vladimir Putin, was elected leader of People Against Corruption party. Immediately after taking office, Putin announced the party's intention to participate in the State Duma election.[41] However, the party was dissolved by Russia's Supreme Court in November 2020. Putin later stated that he intends to create a new party, which will take part in the election.[42]

Electoral alliances

Some parties announced the creation of electoral alliances to participate in the election. However, the participation of alliances in the elections is not provided for in modern Russian legislation, therefore it is not yet clear how these alliances will participate in the elections.

Campaign

Party of Growth

On 19 December 2018, Party of Growth, believed to be under direct control of the Kremlin,[44][45] became the first party to launch a campaign when its leader Boris Titov opened the party's "Election 2021" federal headquarters in Miass, Chelyabinsk Oblast. Leader Titov had previously run for president for the party in the 2018 presidential election despite infamously stating that he did not think he would make a good president.[46]

According to Titov, the party will focus on elections in single-mandate constituencies, not party lists. He said: "Today, no slogans, no 'locomotives'[b 1] we can't win [...] we can't cover the whole of Russia, so it's easier for us to focus on specific constituencies. We need real candidates who will be known on the ground. And the electorate who will know first of all the person, and not even the Party of Growth." The party will nominate about 40 candidates in single-member constituencies.

According to the plan, deputies elected in the course of elections to municipal and regional legislative bodies prior to 2021 should form the election headquarters of the main candidates.[47][48]

On 7 July 2020 a party convention was held in Moscow, at which the party program was approved, and governing bodies were elected. Boris Titov retained the post of party leader, while the posts of co-chairmen of the party were established.[49] In addition to Titov, nine people became co-chairs: musician Sergey Shnurov, actor Nikolai Fomenko, former Minister of Labor and MP Oksana Dmitriyeva, former MP Sergey Stankevich, economist Yevgeny Kogan, journalist Alexander Lyubimov, businessman Ilya Sachkov, social entrepreneur Ksenia Bezuglova and human rights activist Alexander Huruji.[50]

On 30 September 2020, Titov said that the party list will be headed by Sergey Shnurov if he takes up the offer and the party approves.[51]

United Russia

United Russia launched its campaign at the party convention on 23 November 2019. The convention identified priorities and key areas of work that should allow the party to maintain its position as the leading political force in Russia and win the 2021 election.[52] The leader of the party, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that he would head a commission to prepare a new election program for the party.[53] In addition, a project office was established to prepare for the election.[54]

According to Party's General Council Secretary Andrey Turchak, United Russia will fight to preserve its constitutional majority, and intends to win at least 301 seats.[55]

According to sources from the party leadership, United Russia has assessed the work of its Deputies in the State Duma. Based on this assessment, not all of them will be able to run in the upcoming election. It is assumed that about half of the faction will be made up of new deputies.[56]

On 15 January 2020, party leader Dmitry Medvedev resigned from office of the Prime Minister of Russia.[57] New Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is not a member of United Russia or any other party. At the same time, Dmitry Medvedev remain the party's leader.[58]

In July, Turchak announced the start of preparations for the party’s election program.[59] Party leader Dmitry Medvedev said the new version of the Russian Constitution should be used as the basis for the election program.[60]

On 22 October 2020, it became known that the party leadership had identified the first group of candidates for single-member constituencies. This group includes 71 incumbent MPs, whom the party intends to nominate again in their constituencies. Among these MPs is the party's parliamentary leader Sergey Neverov.[61]

Yabloko

On 14 and 15 December 2019, Yabloko held its party convention in Moscow. Elections of the party leadership, including its leader, were held during the convention. Nikolay Rybakov was elected the new leader of the party for the next four years. He said his main goal will be to transform the party for the 2021 election.

Rybakov said: "We'll see Yabloko, where the candidates will be requested to prepare for the election campaign starting from Monday in practice. If you enter an election campaign late people do not have time to learn that there are candidates from Yabloko."[62]

Yabloko is the only party out of the 14 currently on the ballot that is unequivocally opposed to President Putin.[7][6]

A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth

On 20 January 2021, Sergey Mironov announced the merger of A Just Russia, Patriots of Russia and For Truth parties.[63] According to him, a congress will be held on 22 February, at which the three parties will officially unite into one and its leadership will be elected. According to Mironov, he will become the leader of the new party, while Zakhar Prilepin and Gennady Semigin (the leaders of the other two parties) will become co-chairmen. Also, according to Mironov, the new party will presumably be called the Socialist Party "A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth", or simply A Just Russia — For Truth.[64]

Mironov announced that the new party would run on an anti-liberal platform, stating:

The main thing is to change the course of history in our country. For 30 years we have swallowed liberal ideas and recipes, we've swallowed the experience of a life according to other people’s templates. We have to go our own way. Leftist ideas are very popular.[65]

A Just Russia

On 24 September 2020, A Just Russia launched its election campaign at a meeting of the Presidium of the Central Council of the party. According to party leader Sergey Mironov, he will carry out general management of the campaign, and the head of the election headquarters will be MP Valery Gartung.[66]

For Truth

On 22 October 2020, at a meeting of the party's Central Committee, it was decided that party leader Zakhar Prilepin would head the party list of candidates for the election. Prilepin rejected speculation about his intention to run from a single-member constituency in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and said that he would run only as part of the federal list. Prilepin also said that Nikolai Starikov and Sergey Mikheev will also run only on the party list.[67]

Mikheev explained this decision by saying that it is more reasonable to nominate the most famous candidates on the party list, since candidates in single-member constituencies do not participate in debates.

For Truth was one of several parties created in early 2020, all believed to have specifically been created with the assistance of the Kremlin itself in order to split the opposition vote in the 2021 election.[68][69][70][71]

New People

On 21 October 2020, party leader Alexey Nechaev announced that he would head the party list in the election. According to him, the party intends to nominate more than 200 candidates in single-member constituencies. According to Nechaev, the party expect to get 15-20% of the vote.[72] According to the results of the 2020 regional elections, New People was named the most promising party of the so-called "new" political parties (parties registered in 2020).[73] As well as one of the two non-parliamentary parties, which has a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.[70][74] The party are currently polling around or just below 5% in the polls.[75]

On 30 November 2020, it became known that the head of the party's election headquarters became political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko. According to political commentators, Minchenko as the head of campaign significantly increases the party's chances of being elected to the State Duma, since Minchenko previously conducted successful election campaigns in some post-Soviet countries.[76]

On 21 December 2020, party leader Alexey Nechaev party announced that the party intends to spend about 500 million rubles on the election campaign on the party list (for comparison, only Liberal Democratic Party spent more than 500 rubles million in the previous election).[77][78]

Communist Party of the Russian Federation

The Communist Party launched its campaign during the plenum of the Central Committee of the party on 24 October 2020. Party leader Gennady Zyuganov instructed to start developing an electoral program. According to the party's representative, the program will be less populist than in the 2016 election. The program will be more detailed for specific groups of voters.[79]

During the plenum, Zyuganov also proposed creating a new coalition, the Popular Front of the Left and Patriots.[80]

On 14 December 2020, Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the party Yury Afonin said that the party intends to hold the next (non-election) convention in the spring of 2021. It is planned to elect the party leadership at the convention. Initially, it was planned that the convention will be held after the election - in the fall of 2021. According to Afonin, it was decided to hold a this convention advance, because "the campaign will be tense, candidates will try to beat".[81]

Green Alternative

The Green Alternative launched its campaign on 22 November 2020 at a party board meeting. According to party leader Ruslan Khvostov, the party will not focus only on environmental issues, but will also focus on social issues, medicine, science, protection of minority rights, etc.[82]

It is believed that party was specifically created in early 2020 in order to split the opposition vote in the 2021 election, with the Kremlin itself believed to have been involved in the creation of the party in order for it to act as a niche movement that would act as a spoiler.[68][83][84]

Party of Pensioners

The Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice launched its campaign on 7 December 2020 at a meeting of the party's Presidium of the Central Council.[85]

According to some experts, the Party of Pensioners is one of the two non-parliamentary parties that have a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.[70][74]

Liberal Democratic Party

The Liberal Democratic Party launched its campaign during the party convention on 14 December 2020. The party leadership was elected at the convention, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky was re-elected as its leader. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the convention was held in a truncated format. Nevertheless, the Liberal Democratic Party became one of the few Russian political parties and the only parliamentary political party to hold a convention despite the pandemic.[86]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the next Russian legislative election
Opinion polling (WCIOM)

Footnotes

  1. ^ Manifesto was signed on 28 January 2021. On 22 February, the three parties will hold a congress to finalize the unification.
  2. ^ Results for JR (6.2%) and PoR (0.6%) in the 2016 election.
  1. ^ Political technology aimed at increasing the number of voters who vote for the list by attracting a candidate with a high political rating (most often governors and mayors of large cities). After winning, the candidate immediately refuses the position that they have been elected to. The "locomotive" then passes their mandate on to a party member who is usually less known to voters.

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