2021 Russian legislative election

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2021 Russian legislative election
Russia
← 2016 17—19 September 2021 2026 →
All 450 seats to the State Duma
226 seats needed for a majority
Party Leader Current seats
United Russia Dmitry Medvedev 336
CPRF Gennady Zyuganov 43
LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky 40
SRZP Sergey Mironov 23
Rodina Aleksey Zhuravlyov 1
Civic Platform Rifat Shaykhutdinov 1
Vacant seats – 6
Incumbent Chairman of the State Duma
Vyacheslav Volodin Vyacheslav Volodin
United Russia

Legislative elections will be held in Russia on 19 September 2021. At stake are 450 seats in the State Duma of the 8th convocation, the lower house of the Federal Assembly. Going into the elections, United Russia is the ruling party after winning the 2016 elections with 54.2% of the vote, taking 343 seats.

In March 2020, it was proposed to hold a snap election in September 2020 due to constitutional reforms that were proposed, but this idea was abandoned.[1] On 18 June 2021, President Vladimir Putin signed a decree calling the election for 19 September.[2] Due to the pandemic, according to the decision of the Central Election Commission, voting in the elections will last for three days from 17 to 19 September.[3]

14 parties are currently guaranteed automatic access to the election ballot.[4][5][6]

Background[edit]

Pension reform[edit]

After the 2016 elections, United Russia was the most popular party, its polling rating ranging from 40% to 55%, while the rating of the main opposition parties (Communist and Liberal Democratic parties) was a little over 10%. The rating of A Just Russia was lower than the 5% threshold required to enter the State Duma.

In June 2018, after Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced a reform to raise the retirement age, the rating of the ruling United Russia party fell sharply and since then has fluctuated at around 34% to 29%. At the same time, the Communist Party's rating has grown and currently ranges from 10% to 14%. The rating of A Just Russia has also increased, but still it remains relatively small and fluctuates at around 5% to 8%. The rating of the Liberal Democratic Party has remained consistent at around 10% to 13%. Polling results differ on whether the Communists or Liberal Democratic Party are currently ranked as the second most popular party. The ratings of all non-parliamentary parties combined ranges around 6% to 17%, with exact numbers for each party unknown. When the share of people who answered they wouldn't vote and who are unsure are equally distributed among the parties, voter share for United Russia fluctuates around 41%, CPRF around 20%, LDPR around 15%, JR around 8% and other parties around 14%.

Constitutional reform and speculations about a snap election[edit]

Main article: 2020 Russian constitutional referendum

On 15 January 2020, during his Address to the Federal Assembly, President Vladimir Putin proposed a referendum to be held on the number of amendments arguing that a national vote would be necessary to make the changes to the Constitution of Russia"legitimate".[7] The amendments proposed to weaken the executive power and expand the powers of the Parliament. In particular, it is supposed to transfer the power to form a government to the State Duma. This means that if the amendments were adopted, the next Cabinet would be formed by the State Duma.[8] Immediately after Putin's speech, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev resigned along with the entire government. The next day, Mikhail Mishustin was appointed as the new PM. After that, there were suggestions about the dissolution of the State Duma and holding a snap election after the constitutional reform. At present, the State Duma can only be dissolved if it has refused the President's appointment of a Prime Minister three times in a row or passed a no-confidence motion against the government. According to sources from the Presidential Administration, the Constitution may be amended to allow self-dissolution of the State Duma. Some political scientists and MPs also have said that the dissolution of the State Duma and holding of a snap election is likely.[9][10][11] However, this opinion is not shared by Andrey Klishas, head of the Legal Committee of the Federation Council, who is part of the working group on preparing amendments to the Constitution.[12]

On 10 March 2020, during the second reading of the draft law on amendments to the Constitution, MP Alexander Karelin introduced an amendment on holding a snap election.[13] The amendment gave the State Duma the opportunity to decide once to dissolve itself after the amendments were adopted. At first, the proposal was supported by a majority of deputies, but because there was no consensus on this issue (in particular, the Communist Party was against it), President Vladimir Putin urged not to dissolve the State Duma. Karelin then withdrew the amendment.[14][15] If the amendment were passed, snap election would have been held on 13 or 20 September 2020.[16] MP Valentina Tereshkova proposed a "reset" on Putin's presidential terms, which would allow him to stay in office past his second term until 2036 as it was originally set to end in 2024. The ruling United Russia party supported Tereshkova's proposal, and in Putin's response "I believe and am deeply convinced that a strong presidential power is absolutely necessary for our country [and] for stability," he declared, citing examples of countries without presidential term limits and referencing former U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt whom served four consecutive terms[17][18] As a result, the decision received backlash among the opposition and political groups, accusing Putin of trying to serve as a president for life.[18]

A constitutional referendum was held from 25 June to 1 July 2020, from there, 78% of Russian voters approved on the new amendments including extension of Putin's term to 2036.[19] Despite the outcome, the referendum was criticized as being flawed with cases of electoral fraud.[20] Unsanctioned protests over the result of the vote occurred to with 140 people being detained in Moscow.[21]

In spite of the rejection of the self-dissolution amendment, the legal possibility for holding snap election remained (in the case of a three-time refusal of the State Duma to confirm the Prime Minister or Ministers, or a two-time vote of no confidence in the government). Immediately after the amendments to the Constitution came into force, speculation about possible early elections resumed. In particular, the leader of A Just Russia, Sergey Mironov, allowed early elections to be held, referring to the desire of the country's top leadership.[22] According to analysts, a snap election may be held in December 2020 or early 2021.[23]

COVID-19 pandemic[edit]

Further information: COVID-19 pandemic in Russia and Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on politics

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the format of individual electoral events may be changed for health reasons. In particular, in 2020, a law was passed that allows early voting at polling stations two days before the official voting day. In addition, the polling stations themselves can be organized outside the premises. However, such a decision is not mandatory and can be made by the Central Election Commission within ten days after the election is scheduled.[24][25]

Electoral system[edit]

Under current election laws, the State Duma is elected for a term of five years, using parallel voting. Half of the seats (225) are elected by party-list proportional representation with a 5% electoral threshold, with the other half elected in 225 single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting (pluarility voting).[26]

In the proportional part, candidates can be nominated only by political parties. The lists of parties must include at least 200 and no more than 400 candidates. The list may also include candidates who are not members of the party, but their number should not exceed 50% of the number of candidates on the list. The party list of candidates should be divided into federal and regional parts. The regional part includes regional groups of candidates corresponding to the group of bordering federal subjects. The number of regional groups must be at least 35. No more than fifteen candidates may be included in the federal part of the list of candidates. The regional parts of the party list should cover the entire territory of Russia.[27]

In the majoritarian part, candidates can be nominated both by political parties and in the order of self-nomination. The political party must provide a list of candidates to the Central Election Commission, and the list must contain the name and number of the constituencies in which each candidate will run. Documents of candidates-self-nominees, unlike candidates from political parties, have to submit applications to District Election Commissions.[28] For registration, the self-nominated candidate must collect at least 3% of the signatures of voters residing in the constituency (or at least 3,000 signatures if the constituency has less than 100,000 voters).[29]

One and the same candidate can be nominated both in the party list and in the single-member constituency, however, in the case of its passage to the State Duma and the party list and in the single-member constituency, he will need to give up one of the places (usually refuse the seat received on the party list, as in this case the party does not lose this seat and simply will give another candidate).

Changes in the electoral system[edit]

Due to the falling ratings of the ruling United Russia party, it was assumed that the party would try to reform the electoral system in order to maintain a majority in the new State Duma. In particular, it was assumed that the share of MPs elected by party lists may be reduced from 50% (225 seats) to 25% (112 or 113), and the rest will be elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting,[30] or elections on the party lists may be canceled altogether and all 450 seats will be elected in single-member constituencies.[31] However, such assumptions were not justified, and the electoral system remained the same.

In April 2021, an amendment was made to the Federal Law on Elections to the State Duma, increasing the federal part of the party list from 10 to 15 candidates.[32]

Parties[edit]

See also: Political parties in Russia

As of May 2021, 35 political parties are registered in Russia.[33] At the same time, parties represented in the State Duma (in this case, the seats must be obtained in the vote on the party list), parties that received more than 3% of the vote (by party list) in the previous elections or are represented at least in one of the regional parliaments (also by party list) are allowed to contest in the elections without collecting signatures. Other parties need to collect signatures to participate in the elections. The official list of parties entitled to participate in the elections without collection of signatures will be announced before the election, but after the 2020 regional elections, there are only 14 such parties.[34][35][36]

Free access to election[edit]

No. on ballot[a 1] Party Abb. Party leader No. 1 in party list Convention date Political position Ideology Contesting on party list? Contesting on SMC? Notes
TBD United Russia UR Dmitry Medvedev Sergey Shoygu 19 June 2021[37] Big tent Russian conservatism / Statism ✓ ✓
TBD Communist Party of the Russian Federation CPRF Gennady Zyuganov Gennady Zyuganov 24 June 2021[38] Left-wing to far-left Communism / Marxism–Leninism / Social conservatism ✓ ✓
TBD Liberal Democratic Party of Russia LDPR Vladimir Zhirinovsky Vladimir Zhirinovsky 25 June 2021[39] Right-wing to far-right Right-wing populism / Ultranationalism / Social conservatism ✓ ✓
TBD A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth SRZP Sergey Mironov Sergey Mironov 26 June 2021[40] Centre to centre-left Left-wing nationalism / Social democracy / Democratic socialism ✓ ✓
TBD Rodina Rodina Aleksey Zhuravlyov Aleksey Zhuravlyov 26 June 2021 Right-wing to far-right Russian nationalism / National conservatism ✓ ✓
TBD Civic Platform CP Rifat Shaykhutdinov Rifat Shaykhutdinov 3 July 2021 Centre-right Economic liberalism / Liberal conservatism TBA TBA
TBD Communists of Russia CR Maxim Suraykin Maxim Suraykin 30 June 2021 Far-left Communism / Marxism–Leninism / Stalinism TBA TBA
TBD Yabloko Yabloko Nikolay Rybakov Nikolay Rybakov 3–4 July 2021[41] Centre to centre-left Social liberalism / Social democracy TBA TBA
TBD Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice RPPSJ Vladimir Burakov Vladimir Burakov 29 June 2021[42] Centre Pensioner interests TBA TBA
TBD Party of Growth PG Boris Titov TBA 7 July 2021[43] Centre-right Liberal conservatism TBA TBA
TBD Russian Ecological Party "The Greens" The Greens Andrey Nagibin TBA Centre Environmentalism / Green politics TBA TBA
TBD Russian Party of Freedom and Justice RPFJ Maksim Shevchenko Maksim Shevchenko Centre-left Social Democracy / Nationalism / Federalism TBA TBA
TBD New People NP Alexey Nechayev Alexey Nechayev 4 July 2021[44] Centre-right Progressivism / Communitarism ✓ ✓
TBD Green Alternative GA Ruslan Khvostov Victoria Dayneko[45] 25 June 2021 Centre-left Green politics / Environmentalism TBA TBA

Public expression of interest[edit]

Existing parties[edit]

New parties[edit]

A number of individuals, including public figures, have announced that they intend to create new parties to run in the 2021 election. However, as of May 2021 none of the following parties have not been registered by Russia's Ministry of Justice:[52]

  • In January 2018, businessman Sergei Polonsky announced his intention to create a political party called "For All", with which he intends to participate in the 2021 election.[53] As of July 2021, the party did not exist.
  • In June 2019, the organizing committee for the creation of the party "Union of Just Forces of Russia" was formed, however the party has not been registered as of May 2021 and its website is offline.[54][51][52]
  • In January 2020, a number of regional politicians announced the creation of a Federative Party, which will participate in the 2021 election.[55]
  • In January 2020, former Deputy of the State Duma Roman Khudyakov announced the creation of a party Decent Life, which will participate in the 2021 election.[56]
  • In February 2020, music producer Iosif Prigozhin said that he and his wife, singer Valeriya, plan to create the party "Strong Women", which will participate in the 2021 election.[57]
  • In July 2020, businessman Roman Putin, a great-nephew of President Vladimir Putin, was elected leader of the People Against Corruption party. Immediately after taking office, Putin announced the party's intention to participate in the State Duma election.[58] However, the party was dissolved by Russia's Supreme Court in November 2020. Putin later stated that he intends to create a new party, which will participate in the 2021 election.[59]

Electoral alliances[edit]

Some parties announced the creation of electoral alliances to participate in the election. However, the participation of alliances in the elections is not provided for in modern Russian legislation, therefore it is not yet clear how these alliances will participate in the elections.

Campaign[edit]

Party of Growth[edit]

On 19 December 2018, Party of Growth became the first party to launch a campaign when its leader Boris Titov opened the party's "Election 2021" federal headquarters in Miass, Chelyabinsk Oblast.

According to Titov, the party will focus on elections in single-mandate constituencies, not party lists. He said: "Today, no slogans, no 'locomotives'[b 1] we can't win [...] we can't cover the whole of Russia, so it's easier for us to focus on specific constituencies. We need real candidates who will be known on the ground. And the electorate who will know first of all the person, and not even the Party of Growth." The party will nominate about 40 candidates in single-member constituencies.

According to the plan, deputies elected in the course of elections to municipal and regional legislative bodies prior to 2021 should form the election headquarters of the main candidates.[61][62]

On 7 July 2020 a party convention was held in Moscow, at which the party program was approved, and governing bodies were elected. Boris Titov retained the post of party leader, while the posts of co-chairmen of the party were established.[63] In addition to Titov, nine people became co-chairs: musician Sergey Shnurov, actor Nikolai Fomenko, former Minister of Labor and MP Oksana Dmitriyeva, former MP Sergey Stankevich, economist Yevgeny Kogan, journalist Alexander Lyubimov, businessman Ilya Sachkov, social entrepreneur Ksenia Bezuglova and human rights activist Alexander Huruji.[64]

On 30 September 2020, Titov said that the party list will be headed by Sergey Shnurov if he takes up the offer and the party approves.[65]

United Russia[edit]

United Russia launched its campaign at the party convention on 23 November 2019. The convention identified priorities and key areas of work that should allow the party to maintain its position as the leading political force in Russia and win the 2021 election.[66] The leader of the party, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev said that he would head a commission to prepare a new election program for the party.[67] In addition, a project office was established to prepare for the election.[68]

According to the party's General Council Secretary Andrey Turchak, United Russia will fight to preserve its constitutional majority, and intends to win at least 301 seats.[69]

According to sources from the party leadership, United Russia has assessed the work of its deputies in the State Duma. Based on this assessment, not all of them will be able to run in the upcoming election. It is assumed that about half of the faction will be made up of new deputies.[70]

On 15 January 2020, party leader Dmitry Medvedev resigned from office of the Prime Minister of Russia.[71] Current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin is not a member of United Russia or any other party. At the same time, Medvedev remains the party's leader.[72]

In July, Turchak announced the start of preparations for the party’s election program.[73] Medvedev said the new version of the Russian Constitution should be used as the basis for the election program.[74]

On 22 October 2020, it became known that the party leadership had identified the first group of candidates for single-member constituencies. This group includes 71 incumbent MPs, whom the party intends to nominate again in their constituencies. Among these MPs is the party's parliamentary leader Sergey Neverov.[75]

On 19 June 2021, the party's pre-election congress was held in Moscow, at which the candidates and the party's program were approved. At the congress, President Vladimir Putin proposed the following five individuals for the party's federal list for the elections: Sergey Shoygu (Defence Minister), Sergey Lavrov (Foreign Minister), Denis Protsenko (head doctor of Russia's main coronavirus hospital), Yelena Shmelyeva (co-chair of the All-Russia People's Front), and Anna Kuznetsova (Children's Rights Commissioner for the President of the Russian Federation).[76] To the surprise of many analysts, former Prime Minister and party leader Dmitry Medvedev did not top the list.[77]

Primaries[edit]

From 24 to 30 May 2021, United Russia held primaries to select a candidates for the election. These were the third legislative primaries held by the party since 2011 and the second open primaries in which all Russian citizens could participate. Electronic voting was used in the primaries due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[78][79]

A total of 7,624 candidates participated in the primaries, of which almost half were not party members. Of the 336 incumbent deputies from the party, only 237 applied to participate in the primaries.[80]

Yabloko[edit]

On 14 and 15 December 2019, Yabloko held its party convention in Moscow. Elections of the party leadership, including its leader, were held during the convention. Nikolay Rybakov was elected the new leader of the party for the next four years. He said his main goal will be to transform the party for the 2021 election.

Rybakov said: "We'll see Yabloko, where the candidates will be requested to prepare for the election campaign starting from Monday in practice. If you enter an election campaign late people do not have time to learn that there are candidates from Yabloko."[81]

A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth[edit]

On 20 January 2021, Sergey Mironov announced the merger of A Just Russia, Patriots of Russia and For Truth.[82] A congress was held on 22 February, at which the three parties officially united into one and its leadership was be elected. Mironov became the leader of the new party, while Zakhar Prilepin and Gennady Semigin (the leaders of the other two parties) were appointed co-chairmen. The new party is called the Socialist Party "A Just Russia — Patriots — For Truth", or simply A Just Russia — For Truth.[83]

A Just Russia[edit]

On 24 September 2020, A Just Russia launched its election campaign at a meeting of the presidium of the central council of the party. According to party leader Sergey Mironov, he will carry out general management of the campaign, and the head of the election headquarters will be MP Valery Gartung.[84]

For Truth[edit]

On 22 October 2020, at a meeting of the party's central committee, it was decided that party leader Zakhar Prilepin would head the party list of candidates for the election. Prilepin rejected speculation about his intention to run from a single-member constituency in the Nizhny Novgorod Oblast and said that he would run only as part of the federal list. Prilepin also said that Nikolai Starikov and Sergey Mikheev will also run only on the party list.[85]

Mikheev explained this decision by saying that it is more reasonable to nominate the most famous candidates on the party list, since candidates in single-member constituencies do not participate in debates.

New People[edit]

On 21 October 2020, party leader Alexey Nechaev announced that he would head the party list in the election. According to him, the party intends to nominate more than 200 candidates in single-member constituencies. According to Nechaev, the party expects to get 15-20% of the vote.[86] According to the results of the 2020 regional elections, New People was named the most promising party of the so-called "new" political parties (parties registered in 2020),[87] as well as one of the two non-parliamentary parties that has a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.[88][89]

On 30 November 2020, it became known that political strategist Yevgeny Minchenko has been chosen as the head of the party's election headquarters. According to political commentators, Minchenko as the head of campaign significantly increases the party's chances of being elected to the State Duma, since he previously conducted successful election campaigns in some post-Soviet countries.[90]

On 21 December 2020, Nechaev party announced that the party intends to spend about 500 million rubles on its election campaign for the party list (for comparison, only the Liberal Democratic Party spent more than 500 million rubles in the previous election).[91][92]

Communist Party of the Russian Federation[edit]

The Communist Party launched its campaign during the plenum of the central committee of the party on 24 October 2020. Party leader Gennady Zyuganov instructed to start developing an electoral program. According to the party's representative, the program will be less populist than in the 2016 election. The program will be more detailed for specific groups of voters.[93]

During the plenum, Zyuganov also proposed creating a new coalition, the Popular Front of the Left and Patriots.[94]

On 14 December 2020, Deputy Chairman of the Central Committee of the party Yury Afonin said that the party intends to hold the next (non-election) convention in spring 2021. It is planned to elect the party leadership at the convention. Initially, it was planned that the convention would be held after the election - in the fall of 2021. According to Afonin, it was decided to hold a this convention earlier because "the campaign will be tense, and attempts will be made to beat the candidates".[95]

Green Alternative[edit]

Green Alternative launched its campaign on 22 November 2020 at a party board meeting. According to party leader Ruslan Khvostov, the party will focus on social issues, health care, science, protection of minority rights, etc., as well as environmental issues as implied by its name.[96]

Party of Pensioners[edit]

The Russian Party of Pensioners for Social Justice launched its campaign on 7 December 2020 at a meeting of the party's presidium of the central council.[97]

According to some experts, the Party of Pensioners is one of two non-parliamentary parties that have a chance to overcome the 5% barrier.[88][89]

Liberal Democratic Party[edit]

The Liberal Democratic Party launched its campaign during the party's convention on 14 December 2020. The party leadership was elected at the convention, and Vladimir Zhirinovsky was re-elected as its leader. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the convention was held in a truncated format. Nevertheless, the Liberal Democratic Party became one of the few Russian political parties and the only parliamentary political party to hold a convention despite the pandemic.[98]

Russian Party of Freedom and Justice[edit]

On 28 March 2021, the convention of the Communist Party of Social Justice was held, at which political strategist Konstantin Rykov was elected as the new chairman of the central committee of the party. At the same congress, it was decided to rename the party to the Russian Party of Freedom and Justice.[99]

On 31 March it was announced that the party list would be headed by journalist Maxim Shevchenko.[100]

Russian Ecological Party "The Greens"[edit]

Russian Ecological Party "The Greens" launched its campaign on 15 May 2021, during the party's convention. At the convention, a decision was made to start preparing for the election. The congress also included elections to the party's governing bodies, and Andrey Nagibin was elected its new leader.[101]

Opinion polls[edit]

This section is an excerpt from Opinion polling for the 2021 Russian legislative election § Graphical summary[edit]

Footnotes[edit]

  1. ^ The party numbers in the ballots will be determined by drawing lots after all party lists are registered.
  1. ^ Political technology aimed at increasing the number of voters who vote for the list by attracting a candidate with a high political rating (most often governors and mayors of large cities). After winning, the candidate immediately refuses the position that they have been elected to. The "locomotive" then passes their mandate on to a party member who is usually less known to voters.

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