Superpower

The USA and USSR were the two superpowers during the Cold War. Here Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev meet in 1985

A superpower is a state with a leading position in the international system and the ability to influence events and project power on a worldwide scale; it is considered a higher level of power than a great power. Lyman Miller (Professor of National Security Affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School), defines a superpower as "a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon." It was a term first applied in 1944 to the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. Following World War II, the British Empire ceased to exist as its territories became independent, and the Soviet Union and the United States were regarded as the only two superpowers, then engaged in the Cold War.

After the Cold War, the most common belief held that only the United States fulfilled the criteria to be considered a superpower. The People's Republic of China, India, the European Union, and a couple of other candidates, however, appear to have the potential of achieving superpower status within the 21st century. Others doubt the existence of superpowers in the post Cold War era altogether, stating that today's complex global marketplace and the rising interdependency between the world's nations has made the concept of a superpower an idea of the past and that the world is now multipolar.

Application of the term

The term "superpowers" was used to describe nations with greater than Great Power status as early as 1944, but only gained its specific meaning with regard to the United States and the Soviet Union after World War II.

Origin

File:Superpower map 1945.PNG

A world map of 1945. According to William T.R. Fox, the United States (Blue), the Soviet Union (Red), and the British Empire (Turquoise) were superpowers.

The term in its current political meaning was coined in the book The Superpowers: The United States, Britain and the Soviet Union – Their Responsibility for Peace (1944), written by William T.R. Fox, an American foreign policy professor. The book spoke of the global reach of a super-empowered nation. Fox used the word Superpower to identify a new category of power able to occupy the highest status in a world in which, as the war then raging demonstrated, states could challenge and fight each other on a global scale. According to him, there were (at that moment) three states that were superpowers: the United States, the Soviet Union, and the British Empire. The British Empire was the most extensive empire in world history , which was considered the foremost great power and by 1921, held sway over 25% of the world's population and controlled about 25% of the Earth's total land area, while the United States and the Soviet Union both proved their newly gained power in World War II.

Cold War

The Suez Crisis (1956) however made it clear that the British Empire, economically ravaged by two world wars, could no longer compete on an equal footing with the United States and Soviet Union without sacrificing its reconstruction efforts, even while acting in concert with France and Israel. As the majority of World War II was fought far from its national boundaries, the United States did not suffer the industrial destruction or massive civilian casualties that marked the wartime situation of the countries in Europe or Asia. During the war, the United States had built up a strong industrial and technological infrastructure that had greatly advanced its military strength into a primary position on the global stage.

File:Cold war.png

Major alliances during the Cold War.

Following the war, nearly all of Europe had aligned either with the United States or the Soviet Union. Despite attempts to create multinational coalitions or legislative bodies (such as the United Nations), it became increasingly clear that the United States and the Soviet Union were the dominant powers of the newly emerging Cold War, and had very different visions about what the post-war world ought to look like. The two countries opposed each other ideologically, politically, militarily, and economically. The Soviet Union represented the ideology of communism, whilst the United States represented the ideology of capitalism and democracy. This was reflected in the NATO and Warsaw Pact military alliances. These alliances implied that these two nations were part of an emerging bipolar world, in contrast with a previously multipolar world.

The Soviet Union and the United States fulfilled the superpower criteria in the following ways:

	The Soviet Union	The United States
Political	Strong Socialist Republic. Had permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Eastern Europe and the developing world. Strong ties with anti-colonialist movements and labour parties.	Strong Capitalist Republic. Permanent seat on the UN Security Council. Strong ties with Western Europe, Latin America, British Commonwealth, and several East Asian countries.
Geographic	Largest country in the world, with a land area of 22.27 million km²	Third largest country in the world, with an area of approximately 9.6 million km².
Cultural	Wielded influence through communist governments and organizations around the world. Influential in sport, literature, music. The official culture which was embraced by the Soviet state was often quite 'highbrow'; classical music, ballet and chess being prominent examples of this fact.	Influential in music, sport, TV, films, art, and fashion. Freedom of speech and other guaranteed rights for residents. Wielded influence by supporting right-wing dictatorships in undeveloped countries but democracy in developed countries.
Military	Largest land-based armed forces, one of the most powerful air forces, one of the strongest navies. The capability to develop advanced military and space technologies, and the world's largest stockpile of nuclear weapons for the second half of the Cold War.	Bases all over the world, particularly in an incomplete "ring" bordering the Soviet Union to the West, South and East. Largest nuclear arsenal in the world during the first half of the Cold War — stationed on its own soil and also in Europe. Strong and technologically advanced army, world's largest navy, and the largest and most technologically advanced air force in the world.
Economic	Vast deposits of oil, gas, coal, metals and minerals, and large farming areas.	Largest economy in the world. Large resources of minerals, metals, and timber, large and modernized farming industry.
Demographic	Had a population of 286.7 million in 1989, the third largest on Earth behind China and India.	Had a population of 248.7 million in 1990, at that time the fourth largest on Earth.

The idea that the Cold War period revolved around only two blocs, or even only two nations, has been challenged by some scholars in the post-Cold War era, who have noted that the bipolar world only exists if one ignores all of the various movements and conflicts that occurred without influence from either of the two superpowers. Additionally, much of the conflict between the superpowers was fought in "proxy wars", which more often than not involved issues more complex than the standard Cold War oppositions.

In the 1980s some commentators thought Japan would become a superpower, due to its large GDP and high economic growth at the time.

After the Soviet Union disintegrated in the early 1990s, the term hyperpower began to be applied to the United States, as the sole remaining superpower of the Cold War era. This term, coined by French foreign minister Hubert Védrine in the 1990s, is controversial and the validity of classifying the United States in this way is disputed. One notable opponent to this theory, Samuel P. Huntington, rejects this theory in favor of a multipolar balance of power.

Recognition of earlier superpowers

There have been attempts to apply the term superpower retrospectively, to a variety of past entities such as the Persian Empire, Roman Empire, and the Spanish Empire. Recognition by historians of these older states as superpowers may focus on various superlative traits exhibited by them. For example, at its peak the Spanish empire was among the largest the world had ever seen.

Characteristics

Military assets such as a Nimitz class aircraft carrier are a means of power projection on a global scale—one hallmark of a superpower

The criteria of a superpower are not clearly defined and as a consequence they may differ between sources.

According to Lyman Miller, "The basic components of superpower stature may be measured along four axes of power: military, economic, political, and cultural (or what political scientist Joseph Nye has termed “soft”)."

In the opinion of Kim Richard Nossal of McMaster University, "generally this term was used to signify a political community that occupied a continental-sized landmass, had a sizable population (relative at least to other major powers); a superordinate economic capacity (again, relative to others), including ample indigenous supplies of food and natural resources; enjoyed a high degree of non-dependence on international intercourse; and, most importantly, had a well-developed nuclear capacity (eventually normally defined as second-strike capability)."

Former Indian National Security Advisor Jyotindra Nath Dixit has also described the characteristics of Superpowers. In his view, "first, the state or the nation concerned should have sizable territorial presence in terms of the size of the population. Secondly, such a state should have high levels of domestic cohesion, clear sense of national identity and stable administration based on strong legal and institutional arrangements. Thirdly, the state concerned should be economically well to do and should be endowed with food security and natural resources, particularly energy resources and infrastructural resources in terms of minerals and metals. Such a state should have a strong industrial base backed by productive capacities and technological knowledge. Then the state concerned should have military capacities, particularly nuclear and missile weapons capabilities at least comparable to, if not of higher levels than other countries which may have similar capacities."

In the opinion of Professor Paul Dukes, "a superpower must be able to conduct a global strategy including the possibility of destroying the world; to command vast economic potential and influence; and to present a universal ideology". Although, "many modifications may be made to this basic definition".

According to Professor June Teufel Dreyer, "A superpower must be able to project its power, soft and hard, globally."

Superpowers today (1991-)

After the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 that ended the Cold War, the post-Cold War world is widely considered as a unipolar world, with the United States as the world's sole remaining superpower. In the words of Samuel P. Huntington, "The United States, of course, is the sole state with preeminence in every domain of power — economic, military, diplomatic, ideological, technological, and cultural — with the reach and capabilities to promote its interests in virtually every part of the world."

Some experts argue that this mainstream assessment of current global politics is too simplified, in part because of the difficulty in classifying the European Union at its current stage of development. Others argue that the notion of a superpower is outdated, considering complex global economic interdependencies, and propose that the world is multipolar. According to Samuel P. Huntington, "There is now only one superpower. But that does not mean that the world is unipolar. A unipolar system would have one superpower, no significant major powers, and many minor powers." Huntingdon thinks, "Contemporary international politics" ... "is instead a strange hybrid, a uni-multipolar system with one superpower and several major powers."

Potential superpowers

Academics predict the possible rise of new superpowers in the 21st century, mentioning three possible superpower candidates. Whether the People's Republic of China, India or the European Union will be future superpowers is a matter of ongoing debate.

European Union

The European Union has been called a potential superpower by academics. T.R. Reid, Andrew Reding and Mark Leonard, believe that the power of the European Union will rival that of the United States in the 21st century. Leonard cites several factors: the EU's large population, large economy, low inflation rates, the unpopularity and perceived failure of US foreign policy in recent years, and certain EU members states' high quality of life (when measured in terms such as hours worked per week). On the other hand Laurent Cohen-Tanugi states that the EU as a whole has consistently suffered from a growth deficit vis-a-vis the US, high unemployment, and public deficits even while most member states of the EU lagged substantially behind the US in R&D investment, technological innovation, and, since 1995, productivity gains.

People's Republic of China

The People's Republic of China receives almost continual coverage in the popular press of its potential superpower status, and has been identified as a rising or emerging economic and military superpower by academics and other experts. Professor Shujie Yao of Nottingham University has said "China will overtake the United States to become the world's largest economy by 2038 if current growth rates continue", and that China's GDP will overtake that of Japan by 2017 or 2018, and Germany's by 2008. Professor Yao thinks that "under an optimistic scenario", "China could become a real superpower in 30 years time".

Geoffrey Murphay's China: The Next Superpower argues that while the potential for China is high, this is fairly perceived only by looking at the risks and obstacles China faces in managing its population and resources. The political situation in China is too fragile to survive into superpower status according to Susan Shirk, writing in China: Fragile Superpower. Other factors that could constrain China's ability to become a superpower in the future include: limited supplies of energy and raw materials, questions over its innovation capability, inequality and corruption, and risks to social stability and the environment.

India

Newsweek, and the International Herald Tribune join several academics in discussing India's potential of becoming a superpower.

China and India rising to superpower status is not inevitable, according to scholars such as Professor Pranab Bardhan, Chief Editor of the Journal of Development Economics, who suggest that millions mired in poverty and ineffective government prevent China or India from rivaling the U.S. or the E.U. any time soon.Founder and President of the Economic Strategy Institute and former counselor to the Secretary of Commerce in the Reagan Administration Clyde V. Prestowitz Jr. has embraced the notion being put forth that "It is going to be India's century. India is going to be the biggest economy in the world. It is going to be the biggest superpower of the 21st century".

Other candidates

Russia

Occasionally, Russia is suggested as a potential candidate for achieving superpower status in the twenty-first century. However, some argue that Russia's current social and political difficulties and its lacking material and institutional capabilities means that Russia is not likely to achieve a status above that of a "great power" in the near future. As Barry Buzan, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, states:

Russia is the least likely candidate for (re)promotion to superpower. Indeed, it remains a plausible candidate for further demotion into the ranks of big regional powers alongside India and Brazil. To achieve promotion back to superpower status would require Russia to stage a miraculous across-the-board recovery from the very severe economic, political and status shrinkage that followed from the implosion of the Soviet Union...Russia's problem is the huge disjuncture between its status needs and its economic and military weakness. Except for nuclear weapons, the massive military legacy from the Soviet Union has largely decayed...Aside from its nuclear weapons, and its enormous political geography, Russia does not really have the material capability to sustain even its great power status, which is consequentially something given by its peers than taken by right...Therefore, and even though its position has improved a bit since the nadir of the 1990s, Russia is too weak to bid for superpower status during the foreseeable future.

While Russia is often considered to be an energy superpower, even this status has been called into question. As Vladimir Milov, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, says:

The "energy superpower" concept is an illusion with no basis in reality. Perhaps most dangerously, it doesn’t recognize the mutual dependence between Russia and energy consumers. Because of political conflicts and declining production, future supply disruptions to Europe are likely. As a result, there will come a day when European gas companies demand elimination of the take-or-pay conditions in their Russian contracts. This will threaten Gazprom’s ability to borrow. Putin’s attempt to use energy to increase Russian influence could backfire in the long run.

For these reasons, Buzan argues that it is unlikely that Russia will attain superpower status anytime soon. Still, other scholars argue that superpower status is well within Russia's grasp. According to Steven Rosefielde of the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, Russia intends to "reemerge as a full-fledged superpower," and "contrary to conventional wisdom, this goal is easily within the Kremlin’s grasp, but the cost to the Russian people and global security wouldbe immense" (Rosefielde 2005:1). Rosefielde further argues that "Russia has an intact military-industrial complex...and the mineral wealth to reactivate its dormant structurally militarized potential," and that "supply-side constraints don’t preclude a return to prodigal superpowerdom" (Rosefielde 2005:9).

Brazil

Some have argued that Brazil has the potential to emerge as an energy superpower by exporting renewable fuel such as ethanol.

External links

• Questioning the Role of the Superpower Today

Bibliography

• Belt, Don (2004). "Europe's Big Gamble". National Geographic. pp. 54–65.
• Brzezinski, Zbigniew (1997). The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and Its Geostrategic Imperatives. New York: Basic Books. ISBN 0-465-02726-1.
• Fox, William (1944). The Super-powers: the United States, Britain, and the Soviet union—their responsibility for peace. Harcourt, Brace a. Co.
• Kamen, Henry (2003). Spain's Road To Empire: The Making Of A World Power, 1492-1763. Penguin. pp. 640p.
• Kennedy, Paul (1988). The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers. ISBN 0-679-72019-7.
• McCormick, John, John (2007). The European Superpower. Palgave Macmillan.
• Todd, Emanuel (200X). After the Empire — The Breakdown of the American Order.
• Rosefielde, Steven (2005). Russia in the 21st Century: The Prodigal Superpower (PDF). Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press. ISBN 0521836786. Retrieved 2007-10-07.