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2021 Senedd election

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2021 Senedd election
← 2016 On or before 6 May 2021
All 60 seats to Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament
31 seats needed for a majority
 
Blank
Blank
Blank
Leader Mark Drakeford Andrew R. T. Davies Adam Price
Party Labour Conservative Plaid Cymru
Leader since 6 December 2018 24 January 2021[1] 28 September 2018
Leader's seat Cardiff West South Wales Central Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Last election 29 seats 11 seats 12 seats
Current seats 28 11 10
Seats needed Increase2 Increase20 Increase21
 
Blank
Blank
Leader Richard Suchorzewski Neil Hamilton Jane Dodds
Party Abolish UKIP Liberal Democrats
Leader since 11 June 2020 26 September 2016 3 November 2017
Leader's seat not in Senedd Mid and West Wales not in Senedd
Last election 0 seats 7 seats 1 seat
Current seats 2[a] 1 1
Seats needed Increase29 Increase30 Increase30
 
Blank
Leader Neil McEvoy
Party Propel
Leader since 15 January 2020
Leader's seat South Wales Central
Last election New party
Current seats 1[b]
Seats needed Increase30
Incumbent First Minister

Mark Drakeford
Labour



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Represented in the Senedd

The next Senedd election is due to be held on Thursday 6 May 2021[2] to elect 60 members to the Senedd Cymru – Welsh Parliament. It will be the sixth general election since the Senedd (formerly the National Assembly for Wales) was established in 1999. The election is due to be held alongside the 2021 United Kingdom local elections and Scottish Parliament election.

It will be the first election in which 16 and 17 year olds and legally resident foreign nationals are allowed to vote in Wales, the largest extension of the franchise in Wales since 1969. Both changes were a result of the Senedd and Elections (Wales) Act 2020.[3]

Five parties had Members of the Senedd (MSs, formerly Assembly Members – AMs) elected at the last election: Welsh Labour, the Welsh Conservatives, Plaid Cymru, the UK Independence Party, and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Seven political parties are currently represented in the Senedd. These are the five aforementioned parties and two parties that gained MSs who were elected for – and moved from – other political parties. The Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party gained two MSs who were elected for UKIP in 2016, and the Welsh Nation Party gained an MS elected for Plaid Cymru in 2016.

Electoral system

Main article: Mixed-Member Proportional
Main article: Additional Member System

In elections for the Senedd, each voter has two votes in the additional member system. The first vote is for a candidate to become the Member for the voter's constituency, elected by the first past the post system. The second vote is for a regional closed party list of candidates. Additional member seats are allocated from the lists by the D'Hondt method, with constituency results being taken into account in the allocation. The overall result is approximately proportional.

In accordance to the Wales Act 2014, a candidate is allowed to stand in both a constituency and a regional list. However, holding a dual mandate with the House of Commons is illegal, meaning a Member of the Senedd cannot also be an MP.

This will be the first election where 16 and 17 year olds can vote, following the introduction of a new law in January 2020.[3]

Background

The 2019 European Parliament election in the United Kingdom was the last of its kind. The newly formed Brexit Party came out on top in Wales. Plaid Cymru, who support full Welsh independence, came second, marking the first time it had beaten Labour in a Wales-wide election.[4] The Brexit Party also formed a parliamentary group in the Assembly made up of the four ex-UK Independence Party members, led by Mark Reckless.[5] A snap general election was called for 12 December 2019. Welsh Labour suffered an 8% drop in their vote and they were completely wiped out of North Wales, apart from in Alyn and Deeside. Labour ended up losing six parliamentary seats to the Welsh Conservatives in Boris Johnson's landslide victory. These seats included Bridgend, which has been represented on the assembly level by former First Minister of Wales Carwyn Jones since the 1999 election. The Conservatives also picked up Brecon and Radnorshire from the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats Jane Dodds.[6]

On 31 January 2020, the United Kingdom left the European Union. This followed a referendum on the matter in which Wales narrowly voted to leave the EU.[7] South Wales has been highlighted by many as evidence that Brexit was a cross-party issue, as those areas typically vote overwhelmingly for Labour. Blaenau Gwent, Torfaen, and Caerphilly all voted in favour of Brexit, and are all represented in the House of Commons of the United Kingdom by Labour MPs.

Plaid campaigned for a Remain vote in the 2016 referendum on the UK's membership of the EU.[8] Plaid later supported, during the final stages of Brexit process, a second referendum on the matter.[9][10] Plaid argued that there should be a referendum on Welsh independence after Brexit, so that Wales could apply for EU membership.[11] A June 2020 YouGov/ITV Cymru poll concluded that 25% were in favour of independence and 54% opposed. The same poll found that 22% of respondents wanted no devolution in Wales, and that 25% were for abolition of the Senedd, with 48% opposed to abolition.[12][13] A follow-up YouGov poll in August 2020 concluded that support for Welsh independence had risen to 32%.[14]

On 17 May 2020, Health Minister Vaughan Gething told ITV Wales it was "possible" that the election might not be allowed to happen, because of the uncertainty of the COVID-19 pandemic.[15] The First Minister announced on 29 June 2020 that a group with representatives from all of the main parties would look at the arrangements that might have to be in place for the election if COVID-19 restrictions are still required. It will look at campaigning and voting, gathering "views over the summer so that by September, any changes the group feels would be beneficial can be considered and taken forward".[16] There was no consensus to agree if a delay was needed, but all parties agreed on measures to encourage vulnerable voters and others to consider applying for a postal vote and early applications, greater flexibility around the nomination of candidates, postal and proxy voting, and measures to ensure the safe operation of polling stations and count venues.[17] The Welsh Government is drafting a bill that if needed could be introduced in 2021 giving the Llywydd (presiding officer) the ability to delay the election by up to six months.[18]

During the pandemic, the Welsh government messaging and law have been distinct from the UK governments actions in England; this has made the Welsh public more conscious about devolution.[19] The Welsh government only let businesses access the Economic Resilience Fund devolved to them by Westminster if they officially recognised a trade union so they could recruit in those workplaces.[20] The Welsh government announced a two-week lockdown as a means of reducing the prevalence of the virus — called a "firebreak" — in line with the other devolved administrations and distinct from the UK governments lockdown in England.[21]

On 11 December 2020, Plaid announced that they would hold a referendum on Welsh independence within five years if they won a majority.[22]

On 3 February 2021, UKIP leader Neil Hamilton stated that the party would pledge to deliver a referendum on the devolved administrations in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.[23]

Retiring members

The following MSs will not run for re-election:

Constituency/Region Departing MS Party
Bridgend Carwyn Jones[24] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color" | Labour
South Wales Central David Melding[25] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Dafydd Elis-Thomas[26] style="background-color: Template:Independent/meta/color" | Independent
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Angela Burns[27] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
South Wales West Bethan Sayed[28] style="background-color: Template:Plaid Cymru/meta/color" | Plaid Cymru
Brecon and Radnorshire Kirsty Williams[29] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Liberal Democrats/meta/color" | Liberal Democrats
South Wales West Suzy Davies[30] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Conservatives/meta/color" | Conservatives
Vale of Clwyd Ann Jones[31] style="background-color: Template:Welsh Labour/meta/color" | Labour

Constituency nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Constituency Conservatives Labour Plaid Cymru Lib Dem Green Others
Aberavon Liz Hill O'Shea[32] David Rees Victoria Griffiths[33]
Aberconwy Janet Finch-Saunders Dawn McGuinness[34] Aaron Wynne Rhys Jones[35]
Alyn and Deeside Abigail Mainon[36] Jack Sargeant Chris Twells [37]
Arfon Tony Thomas[38] Iwan Jones[39] Siân Gwenllian Calum Davies
Blaenau Gwent Edward Dawson[40] Alun Davies Peredur Owen Griffiths[41] Calen Jones[42]
Brecon and Radnorshire James Evans Gethin Jones Grenville Ham William Powell
Bridgend Sarah Murphy[43] Harvey Jones[44] Steven Bletsoe Caroline Jones [45]
Caerphilly Steven Mayfield[46] Hefin David Delyth Jewell
Cardiff Central Calum Davies[47] Jenny Rathbone Wiliam Rees Rodney Berman[48]
Cardiff North Joel Williams Julie Morgan Ashley Drake Rhys Taylor
Cardiff South and Penarth Leighton Rowlands[49] Vaughan Gething Nasir Adam[50] Alex Wilson [51]
Cardiff West Sean Driscoll[52] Mark Drakeford Rhys ab Owen[53] Heath Marshall [54] Neil McEvoy
(Welsh Nation Party)
Carmarthen East and Dinefwr Havard Hughes[55] Rob James [56] Adam Price
Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire Sam Kurtz[57] Riaz Hassan Rhys Thomas[58] Alistair Cameron [59]
Ceredigion Amanda Jenner[60] Dylan Lewis-Rowlands Elin Jones Cadan ap Tomos [61]
Clwyd South Barbara Hughes Ken Skates Leena Farhat
Clwyd West Darren Millar Joshua Hurst [62] Elin Walker Jones David Wilkins [63]
Cynon Valley Mia Rees[64] Vikki Howells
Delyn Mark Isherwood[57] Hannah Blythyn Andrew Parkhurst [37]
Dwyfor Meirionnydd Charlie Evans[65] Cian Ireland Mabon ap Gwynfor[66] Steve Churchman
Gower Myles Langstone[67] Rebecca Evans John Davies Michael Sheehan Chris Evans
Islwyn Gavin Chambers[68] Rhianon Passmore Rhys Mills[69] Oliver Townsend
Llanelli Stefan Ryszewski[70] Lee Waters Helen Mary Jones[71] Sian Caiach (Gwlad)
Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney Donna Gavin[72] Dawn Bowden Ian Gwynne[73]
Monmouth Catrin Maby Jo Watkins[74]
Montgomeryshire Russell George Elwyn Vaughan Alison Alexander
Neath Mathew Williams[75] Jeremy Miles Sioned Williams Megan Poppy Lloyd
Newport East Gareth Rhys Hughes[76] John Griffiths Mike Hamilton[77]
Newport West Michael Enea[78] Jayne Bryant John Miller[79]
Ogmore Nathan Adams[80] Huw Irranca-Davies Luke Fletcher[81]
Pontypridd Joel James[82] Mick Antoniw Heledd Fychan[83] Steven Rajam[84]
Preseli Pembrokeshire Paul Davies Jackie Jones[85] Cris Tomos[86] Tina Roberts [87]
Rhondda Elizabeth Buffy Williams [88] Leanne Wood
Swansea East Cameron Brennan[89] Mike Hedges Rhiannon Barrar[90] Sam Bennett
Swansea West Samantha Chohan[91] Julie James Dai Lloyd Chloe Hutchinson
Torfaen Gruff Parry Lynne Neagle Veronica German[92]
Vale of Clwyd Gareth Davies
Vale of Glamorgan Matt Smith Jane Hutt Richard Grigg Sally Stephenson [93] Karl-James Langford (Gwlad)
Wrexham Jeremy Kent Lesley Griffiths Carrie Harper Tim Sly
Ynys Môn Lyn Hudson[94] Samantha Egelstaff Rhun ap Iorwerth

Regional nominations

NB: MSs in office (i.e. incumbents) before the election are bolded. Winners are highlighted with party colours.

Region Labour[95] Plaid Cymru[96] Conservatives[97][98][99][100][101] Lib Dem [102] Green[103] Others
Mid and West Wales Eluned Morgan Cefin Campbell Tomos Davies Emily Durrant
Joyce Watson Helen Mary Jones Amanda Jenner Tomos Barlow
Helen Taylor Rhys Thomas Liz Lesnianski Harry Hayfield
Ben Gwalchmai Elwyn Vaughan Aled Davies Marc Pearton
North Wales Carolyn Thomas Llyr Gruffydd Mark Isherwood Chris Twells Iolo Jones
Andy Short Carrie Harper Sam Rowlands Ducan Rees
Diane Green Elin Walker Jones Barbara Hughes Adam Turner
Ryan O’Gorman Owen Hurcum Gareth Davies Linda Rogers
South Wales Central Ruba Sivagnanam Rhys ab Owen Andrew RT Davies Rodney Berman Anthony Slaughter
Dan De’Ath Heledd Fychan Joel James Helen Westhead
Maliika Kaaba Fflur Elin Calum Davies David Griffin
Owain Williams Sahar Al-Faifi Chris Thorne Debra Cooper
South Wales East Helen Cunningham Delyth Jewell Laura Anne Jones Jo Watkins Amelia Womack
Peter Jones Peredur Owen Griffiths Natasha Asghar Ian Chandler
Mary Ann Brocklesby Lindsay Whittle Matthew Evans Lauren James
Majid Rahman Rhys Mills Nick Evans Stephen Priestnall
South Wales West Sian James Sioned Williams Tom Giffard Chloe Hutchinson Megan Poppy Lloyd
Kevin Pascoe Luke Fletcher Altaf Hussain Chris Evans
Neelo Farr John Davies Samantha Chohan Alex Harris
Mahaboob Basha Jamie Evans Liz Hill O'Shea Tom Muller

Opinion polling

Main article: Opinion polling for the 2021 Senedd election

The constituency vote is shown as semi-transparent lines, while the regional vote is shown in full lines.

Graph of the evolution of the opinion polls for the 2021 Welsh Parliament election (the right border represents the last possible day for the election to be held). Lines represent local regressions (LOESS) with a span of 0.5.

Target seats

Below are listed all the constituencies which require a swing of less than 10% from the 2016 result to change hands.

Labour targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Labour's
place
2016 		Result
1 Aberconwy

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 1,607
(over
Labour) 		3.35 3rd
2 Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,373 5.75 2nd
3 Preseli Pembrokeshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,930 6.8 2nd
4 Rhondda

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #005B54;" data-sort-value="Plaid Cymru" |

Plaid Cymru 3,459 7.35 2nd
5 Monmouth

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 5,147 8.2 2nd

Plaid Cymru targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Plaid's
place
2016 		Result
1 Llanelli

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 382 0.65 2nd
2 Blaenau Gwent

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 650 1.55 2nd
3 Aberconwy

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 754 1.7 2nd
4 Cardiff West

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,176 1.85 2nd
5 Caerphilly

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,575 2.9 2nd
6 Neath

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 2,923 5.75 2nd

Conservative targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Conservatives'
place
2016 		Result
1 Vale of Glamorgan

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 777 1.05 2nd
2 Vale of Clwyd

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 768 1.55 2nd
3 Gower

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,829 3.05 2nd
4 Wrexham

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 1,325 3.25 2nd
5 Cardiff North

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour Party" |

Labour 3,667 4.9 2nd
6 Clwyd South

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 3,016 6.8 2nd
7 Delyn

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 3,582 7.7 2nd

Liberal Democrat targets

Rank Constituency Winning party 2016 Majority Swing
to gain
(%) 		Lib Dems'
place
2016 		Result
1 Cardiff Central

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #E4003B;" data-sort-value="Welsh Labour" |

Labour 817 1.55 2nd
2 Ceredigion

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #005B54;" data-sort-value="Plaid Cymru" |

Plaid Cymru 2,408 4.1 2nd
3 Montgomeryshire

style="width: 2px; color:inherit; background-color: #0087DC;" data-sort-value="Welsh Conservatives" |

Conservative 3,339 7.05 2nd

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Neither of the party's two representatives in the Senedd were elected for the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party. Gareth Bennett was elected for UKIP in 2016, before leaving to become an independent and then the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020. The party's other representative in the Senedd, Mark Reckless, was also elected for UKIP, before joining the Conservative Group (although not the party) then becoming a member of the Brexit Party in 2019, before joining the Abolish the Welsh Assembly Party in 2020.
  2. ^ The party's sole representative in the Senedd, Neil McEvoy, was elected as a member of Plaid Cymru in 2016, before leaving the party to become an independent, then created the Welsh National Party (now Propel) in 2020.

References

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