2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin
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| Elections in Wisconsin |
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The 2010 United States Senate election in Wisconsin was held on November 2, 2010. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Russ Feingold ran for re-election to a fourth term, but was defeated by Republican challenger Ron Johnson, a businessman and first-time candidate.[1] Johnson was the first Republican to win a Senate election in Wisconsin since 1986. Feingold also became the fifth senator in a row from Wisconsin's Class 3 Senate seat to be defeated for re-election in the general election, and the seventh in a row overall to lose by a defeat in either the primary or general elections.
Republican primary
Candidates
- On the ballot
- Stephen Finn, plumber[1]
- Ron Johnson, businessman[2]
- Dave Westlake, businessman[3]
- Declined
- Ted Kanavas, state senator[2]
- Dick Leinenkugel (dropped out), former State Commerce Secretary[4]
- Tommy Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin
- Terrence Wall (dropped out), real estate developer[5]
Campaign
Former Republican Governor of Wisconsin Tommy Thompson had expressed an interest in challenging Feingold,[6] but ruled himself out of the race in April 2010.[7]
Johnson, a millionaire manufacturer and Tea Party movement favorite running for political office for the first time, was the frontrunner. In response to controversy over his ownership of stock in BP, Johnson said he would sell it when market conditions were favorable and possibly use the proceeds to help finance his Senate campaign.[8] Johnson was endorsed by: the Club for Growth, a fiscally conservative advocacy organization; former Wisconsin Republican Lt. Governor Margaret Farrow; Republican U.S. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina;[9][10] and Wisconsin Republican U.S. Representatives Jim Sensenbrenner, Tom Petri and Paul Ryan.[11] Businessman David Westlake was endorsed by the Republican Liberty Caucus.[12] According to OpenSecrets, as of August 25, 2010, Johnson had invested $4.3 million of his own money into his campaign; this amount represented 71 percent of his campaign funds, while 27 percent of his campaign funds ($1.6 million) came from individual contributions.[13]
Polling
| Poll Source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ron Johnson |
Dave Westlake |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report[dead link]) | June 26–27, 2010 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 49% | 11% | –– | 40% |
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ron Johnson | 500,821 | 84.7% | |
| Republican | David Westlake | 61,287 | 10.4% | |
| Republican | Stephen M. Finn | 29,002 | 4.9% | |
| Total votes | 591,107 | 100.0% | ||
General election
Candidates
- Russ Feingold (D), incumbent U.S. senator
- Ron Johnson (R), businessman
- Dave Rutowski (I)
- Rob Taylor (I) self-described Constitution Party candidate[15][16]
Campaign
Feingold's first television ad was a positive ad released in March. In July 2010, Feingold's second 2010 television election ad attacked Johnson for alleged support for offshore drilling in the Great Lakes. Johnson quickly countered Feingold with a television ad of his own.[17] Feingold's logo was Moving Forward. In one ad, he emphasized independence and called himself a "penny pincher."[18] Johnson argued that manufacturers and accountants were underrepresented in the U.S. Senate, and there were too many lawyers (57 out of 100 members, including Feingold).[19] Feingold received the endorsements of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Green Bay Press-Gazette.[20] The Beloit Daily News endorsed Johnson.[21]
Debates
Predictions
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[24] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2010 |
| Rothenberg[25] | Lean R (flip) | October 22, 2010 |
| RealClearPolitics[26] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2010 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[27] | Lean R (flip) | October 21, 2010 |
| CQ Politics[28] | Lean R (flip) | October 26, 2010 |
Polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Russ Feingold (D) |
Ron Johnson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports | May 25, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 44% | 3% | 6% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 21, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 3% | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 26–27, 2010 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 43% | –– | 12% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 13, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 2% | 6% |
| University of Wisconsin, Madison | July 15, 2010 | 500 | ± 3.9% | 33% | 28% | –– | 44% |
| Magellan Strategies | July 20, 2010 | 1,145 | ± 2.9% | 45% | 43% | 3.7% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports | July 27, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 2% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 11, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 2% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 24, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | 1% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 15, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 51% | 1% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 18–19, 2010 | –– | ± 3.8% | 41% | 52% | –– | 7% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research | September 17–21, 2010 | 963 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 51% | 2% | 2% |
| McClatchy/Marist | September 26–28, 2010 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 52% | 1% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 29, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 54% | 2% | 2% |
| We the People | September 29 – October 4, 2010 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 49% | –– | –– |
| We the People/Ispos | October 8, 2010 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 51% | –– | –– |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 11, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 52% | –– | 2% |
| CNN/Time/Opinion Research | October 8–12, 2010 | 1,506 | ± 2.5% | 44% | 52% | 1% | –– |
| St. Norbert College/WPR | October 12–15, 2010 | 402 | ± 5.0% | 47% | 49% | –– | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 25, 2010 | 750 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 53% | 0% | 1% |
| We the People | October 24–27, 2010 | 400 | ± 5.0% | 44% | 48% | –– | 6% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 26–28, 2010 | 1,372 | ± 2.6% | 44% | 53% | –– | 3% |
| Marist College | October 26–28, 2010 | 811 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 52% | 1% | 2% |
Hypothetical polling
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Russ Feingold (D) |
David Westlake (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report) | June 26–27, 2010 | 638 | ± 3.9% | 45% | 38% | -- | 17% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | June 21, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 41% | 4% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | May 25, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 38% | 7% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 23, 2010 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 31% | — | 21% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 16, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 51% | 35% | 5% | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 17, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 37% | 6% | 10% |
| Public Policy Polling (report[dead link]) | November 20–22, 2009 | 767 | ± 3.5% | 47% | 32% | — | 21% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Russ Feingold (D) |
Tommy Thompson (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPRI (report) | September 27–29, 2009 | 700 | ± 3.8% | 39% | 43% | — | 18% |
| Public Policy Polling (report[dead link]) | November 20–22, 2009 | 767 | ± 3.5% | 50% | 41% | — | 10% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | January 26, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 47% | 6% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 17, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 43% | 48% | 3% | 5% |
| WPRI (report) | March 9, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 51% | — | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 16, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 23, 2010 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 44% | — | 9% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of Error |
Russ Feingold (D) |
Terrence Wall (R) |
Other | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (report[dead link]) | November 20–22, 2009 | 767 | ± 3.5% | 48% | 34% | — | 19% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | February 17, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 47% | 39% | 6% | 7% |
| WPRI (report) | March 9, 2010 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 32% | 6% | 7% |
| Rasmussen Reports (report) | March 16, 2010 | 500 | ± 4.5% | 49% | 40% | 3% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (report) | March 23, 2010 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 34% | — | 18% |
Fundraising
Through December 31, 2010:
| Candidate (Party) | Net Receipts | Disbursements | Beginning Cash | Latest Cash On Hand | Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russ Feingold (D) | $13,947,563 | $15,544,093 | $2,516,119 | $919,585 | $0 |
| Ron Johnson (R) | $15,509,297 | $15,316,651 | $0 | $192,646 | $8,708,465 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission[29] | |||||
Results
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | Ron Johnson | 1,125,999 | 51.86% | +7.75% | |
| Democratic | Russ Feingold (incumbent) | 1,020,958 | 47.02% | −8.33% | |
| Constitution | Rob Taylor | 23,473 | 1.08% | N/A | |
| Write-in | 901 | 0.04% | N/A | ||
| Total votes | 2,170,430 | 100.00% | -26.4% | ||
| Republican gain from Democratic | |||||
Counties that flipped Democratic to Republican
- Barron (largest city: Rice Lake)
- Brown (largest city: Green Bay)
- Burnett (largest village: Grantsburg)
- Clark (largest city: Neillsville)
- Chippewa (largest city: Chippewa Falls)
- Iron (largest city: Hurley)
- Jefferson (largest city: Watertown)
- Kewaunee (largest city: Algoma)
- Langlade (largest city: Antigo)
- Manitowoc (largest city: Manitowoc)
- Marathon (largest city: Wausau)
- Monroe (largest city: Sparta)
- Oneida (largest city: Rhinelander)
- Outagamie (largest city: Appleton)
- Rusk (largest city: Ladysmith)
- Washburn (largest city: Spooner)
- Buffalo (largest city: Mondovi)
- Columbia (largest city: Portage)
- Door (largest city: Sturgeon Bay)
- Dunn (largest city: Menomonie)
- Forest (largest city: Crandon)
- Grant (largest city: Platteville)
- Jackson (largest city: Black River Falls)
- Juneau (largest city: Mauston)
- Kenosha (largest city: Kenosha)
- Lafayette (largest city: Darlington)
- Lincoln (largest city: Merrill)
- Pepin (largest city: Durand)
- Price (largest city: Park Falls)
- Racine (largest city: Racine)
- Richland (largest city: Richland Center)
- Sawyer (largest city: Hayward)
- Trempealeau (largest city: Arcadia)
- Winnebago (largest city: Oshkosh)
- Adams (largest city: Adams)
- Polk (Largest city: Amery)
- St. Croix (Largest city: Hudson)
- Taylor (Largest city: Medford)
References
- ^ a b "Johnson leads race for GOP Senate bid". www.jsonline.com.
- ^ a b "GOP's Ron Johnson announces Senate run while in La Crosse". WKOW. April 15, 2010. Retrieved May 19, 2010.
- ^ Drake, Bruce (January 28, 2010). "Feingold May Be Vulnerable If Thompson Seeks His Wisconsin Senate Seat". Politics Daily. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
- ^ "Leinenkugel abruptly exits – David Catanese". Politico.Com. May 23, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ Giroux, Greg (May 27, 2010). "Wisconsin: Wall Confirms Decision To End Senate Bid – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. Archived from the original on October 29, 2010. Retrieved June 14, 2010.
- ^ "Ex-Gov Thompson Being Pushed To Run For Senate". WTAQ. January 26, 2010. Archived from the original on July 18, 2011. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
- ^ "Thompson tells tea party rally he won't run for U.S. Senate". JS Online. April 15, 2010. Retrieved April 16, 2010.
- ^ "Attack Ad Puts Feingold Foe On Defensive Over Great Lakes Drilling – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. July 14, 2010. Archived from the original on July 19, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ^ "Ron Johnson". Ronjohnsonforsenate.com. Archived from the original on July 24, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ^ "Club For Growth Puts Muscle Into More Races – The Eye (CQ Politics)". Blogs.cqpolitics.com. July 14, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.[dead link]
- ^ "Ron Johnson". Ronjohnsonforsenate.com. July 12, 2010. Archived from the original on July 27, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ^ "Endorsed Candidates – 2010 | Republican Liberty Caucus". Rlc.org. Archived from the original on August 13, 2010. Retrieved August 21, 2010.
- ^ OpenSecrets, August 25, 2010, accessed October 1, 2010, http://www.opensecrets.org/races/summary.php?id=WIS2&cycle=2010
- ^ "The 2010 Results Maps". POLITICO.
- ^ "Rob Taylor for Senate website". Archived from the original on January 26, 2016. Retrieved September 11, 2010.
- ^ "Real estate developer launches Senate campaign". WQOW. January 20, 2010. Retrieved January 28, 2010.
- ^ "Johnson Quick to Counterattack Feingold on Oil Ad". WNCT. Archived from the original on July 18, 2010. Retrieved July 15, 2010.
- ^ Walker, Don (August 24, 2010). "Washington-based group airs ad attacking Feingold".
- ^ "Ron Johnson says there are 57 lawyers, including Russ Feingold, in the U.S. Senate". @politifact.
- ^ "Wis. Newspapers Unveil Election Endorsements". WISN.com. March 6, 2012. Archived from the original on March 6, 2012. Retrieved September 17, 2019.
- ^ "Johnson Leads Polls, Feingold Leads Endorsements". 620 WTMJ. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 27, 2010.
- ^ Ramde, Dinesh (October 12, 2010). "Feingold and Johnson spar over funding of attack ads". Chippewa Herald. Associated Press. Retrieved June 16, 2016.
- ^ "Feingold holds roundtable discussion in Eau Claire – WQOW TV: Eau Claire, WI NEWS18 News, Weather, and Sports".
- ^ "Senate". Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Senate Ratings". Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Battle for the Senate". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "2010 Senate Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Race Ratings Chart: Senate". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on October 28, 2010. Retrieved October 26, 2010.
- ^ "Summary Reports Search Results – 2009–2010 Cycle". fec.gov. Archived from the original on July 13, 2012. Retrieved July 9, 2011.
- ^ "2010 Fall General Election" (PDF). State of Wisconsin. December 1, 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on May 21, 2012. Retrieved March 30, 2015.
External links
- Elections & Voting Archived November 7, 2012, at the Wayback Machine at the Wisconsin Government Accountability Board
- Candidate list Archived August 26, 2010, at the Wayback Machine
- U.S. Congress candidates for Wisconsin at Project Vote Smart
- Wisconsin U.S. Senate from OurCampaigns.com
- Campaign contributions from Open Secrets
- [1] 2010 Wisconsin Senate General Election: All Head-to-Head Matchups][permanent dead link] graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Election 2010: Wisconsin Senate from Rasmussen Reports
- 2010 Wisconsin Senate Race from Real Clear Politics
- 2010 Wisconsin Senate Race from CQ Politics
- Race profile from The New York Times
- Election 2010 news coverage at the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel
- Official campaign websites (Archived)