2008 United States presidential election in Arizona
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 County Results
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| Elections in Arizona |
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The 2008 United States presidential election in Arizona took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose 10 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
Arizona was won by Republican nominee John McCain with an 8.48% margin of victory, McCain had served as United States Senator from Arizona since 1987. Prior to the election, sixteen of seventeen news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise considered as a red state. It was the home state of John McCain and until 2020, had only been carried by a Democrat once since 1948. However, polls taken near Election Day in 2008 showed Democrat Barack Obama closer than expected to winning the state.[1] McCain carried all but four of the state's 15 counties. This was the last presidential election that a Republican would win his home state until Donald Trump won his newly appointed home state of Florida in 2020. This is also closer than any of McCain's statewide Senate races. Obama became the first Democrat to win the White House without winning Gila, Greenlee, La Paz, or Pinal Counties since Arizona statehood in 1912, as well as the first to do so without winning Navajo County since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964.
Twelve years later, Democratic nominee for President Joe Biden, who was running as the Democratic nominee for Vice President in 2008, won the state of Arizona.
Primaries
Campaign
Predictions
There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:
| Source | Ranking |
|---|---|
| D.C. Political Report[2] | Likely R |
| Cook Political Report[3] | Lean R |
| The Takeaway[4] | Lean R |
| Electoral-vote.com[5] | Lean R |
| Washington Post[6] | Lean R |
| Politico[7] | Solid R |
| RealClearPolitics[8] | Toss-up |
| FiveThirtyEight[6] | Solid R |
| CQ Politics[9] | Lean R |
| The New York Times[10] | Solid R |
| CNN[11] | Lean R |
| NPR[6] | Lean R |
| MSNBC[6] | Lean R |
| Fox News[12] | Likely R |
| Associated Press[13] | Likely R |
| Rasmussen Reports[14] | Safe R |
Polling
Opinion polls taken from February through to October 2008 showed McCain leading Obama by margins of between 1% and 21%. The final RealClearPolitics average gave the state an average of 53.8% for McCain, compared to 45.0% for Obama.[15]
Fundraising
John McCain raised $7,448,622. Barack Obama raised $5,491,056.[16]
Advertising and visits
Obama and his interest groups spent $1,510,900 in the state. McCain and his interest groups spent just $751.[17] The Democratic ticket did not visit the state. Arizona native John McCain visited the state 5 times in the election campaign.[18]
Analysis
Arizona has long been a Republican-dominated state. At the time, it was represented in the Senate by two Republicans (John McCain and Jon Kyl). It has only supported a Democrat for president once in the last 60 years, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996. In addition, both the Arizona Senate and Arizona House of Representatives are controlled by Republicans. However, the Governor was Democrat Janet Napolitano, and both parties held four House seats each before the election.
Arizona was McCain's home state and gave its 10 electoral votes to its favorite son. However, he won just under 54% of the vote. By comparison, he'd been reelected in 2004 with 77% of the vote, one of the largest margins of victory for a statewide race in Arizona history. This led to speculation that the race would have been far closer without McCain on the ballot.[19] One major factor is the growing Hispanic vote in the state, a voting bloc that tends to favor the Democrats, although both George W. Bush and John McCain held moderate positions on illegal immigration.
Arizona politics are dominated by Maricopa and Pima counties, home to Phoenix and Tucson respectively. Between them, these two counties cast almost three-fourths of the state's vote and elect a substantial majority of the legislature. Maricopa County, a Republican stronghold since 1948, gave McCain an 11-point victory. This alone was more than enough to make up for Obama's narrow victory in Democratic-leaning Tucson. McCain also did well elsewhere throughout the state, winning the more sparsely populated counties by double digits.
The election also saw Republicans making gains in the state legislature, as the GOP picked up one seat in the State Senate and three seats in the State House. The Democrats, however, managed to win the open seat in Arizona's 1st congressional district, with former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick cruising to victory over Republican Sydney Hay, giving the Democrats a majority of the state's House seats for the first time in 60 years.
Results
Constitution Party nominee Chuck Baldwin, Boston Tea Party nominee Charles Jay and independent candidate Jonathan Allen were registered write-in candidates in Arizona.
| Party | Candidate | Running mate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | John McCain | Sarah Palin | 1,230,111 | 53.39% | 10 | |
| Democratic | Barack Obama | Joe Biden | 1,034,707 | 44.91% | 0 | |
| Libertarian | Bob Barr | Wayne Allyn Root | 12,555 | 0.54% | 0 | |
| Independent | Ralph Nader | Matt Gonzalez | 11,301 | 0.49% | 0 | |
| Green | Cynthia McKinney | Rosa Clemente | 3,406 | 0.15% | 0 | |
| Constitution | Chuck Baldwin (write-in) | Darrell Castle | 1,371 | 0.06% | 0 | |
| Independent | Charles Jay (write-in) | Barry Hess | 16 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Independent | Jonathan Allen (write-in) | Jeffrey Stath | 8 | 0.00% | 0 | |
| Invalid or blank votes | 27,376 | 1.18% | — | |||
| Totals | 2,320,851 | 100.00% | 10 | |||
| Voter turnout | 77.69% | |||||
| Source: [20] | ||||||
Results by county
| County | John Sidney McCain Republican |
Barack Hussein Obama Democratic |
Robert Laurence Barr Jr. Libertarian |
Ralph Nader Independent |
Cynthia Ann McKinney Green |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total ballots | Total eligible registration |
Voter turnout | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||||
| Apache | 8,551 | 34.33% | 15,390 | 61.79% | 111 | 0.45% | 109 | 0.44% | 75 | 0.30% | 26 | 0.10% | -6,839 | -25.07% | 24,907 | 41,425 | 60.13% |
| Cochise | 29,026 | 58.77% | 18,943 | 38.35% | 371 | 0.75% | 356 | 0.72% | 90 | 0.18% | 34 | 0.07% | 10,083 | 20.42% | 49,390 | 70,715 | 69.84% |
| Coconino | 22,186 | 40.44% | 31,433 | 57.30% | 267 | 0.49% | 309 | 0.56% | 117 | 0.21% | 32 | 0.06% | -9,247 | -16.86% | 54,861 | 69,855 | 78.54% |
| Gila | 14,095 | 62.05% | 7,884 | 34.71% | 150 | 0.66% | 156 | 0.69% | 31 | 0.14% | 17 | 0.07% | 6,211 | 27.34% | 22,717 | 31,132 | 72.97% |
| Graham | 8,376 | 68.82% | 3,487 | 28.65% | 60 | 0.49% | 56 | 0.46% | 23 | 0.19% | 5 | 0.04% | 4,889 | 40.17% | 12,170 | 17,282 | 70.42% |
| Greenlee | 1,712 | 57.68% | 1,165 | 39.25% | 16 | 0.54% | 17 | 0.57% | 3 | 0.10% | 0 | 0.00% | 547 | 18.43% | 2,968 | 4,337 | 68.43% |
| La Paz | 3,509 | 61.88% | 1,929 | 34.02% | 39 | 0.69% | 53 | 0.93% | 14 | 0.25% | 8 | 0.14% | 1,580 | 27.86% | 5,671 | 8,195 | 69.20% |
| Maricopa | 746,448 | 54.07% | 602,166 | 43.62% | 7,605 | 0.55% | 6,095 | 0.44% | 1,799 | 0.13% | 849 | 0.06% | 144,282 | 10.45% | 1,380,571 | 1,730,886 | 79.76% |
| Mohave | 44,333 | 64.32% | 22,092 | 32.05% | 433 | 0.63% | 561 | 0.81% | 111 | 0.16% | 75 | 0.11% | 22,241 | 32.27% | 68,930 | 105,200 | 65.52% |
| Navajo | 19,761 | 54.34% | 15,579 | 42.84% | 158 | 0.43% | 182 | 0.50% | 70 | 0.19% | 50 | 0.14% | 4,182 | 11.50% | 36,366 | 58,528 | 62.13% |
| Pima | 182,406 | 45.89% | 206,254 | 51.89% | 1,923 | 0.48% | 1,995 | 0.50% | 683 | 0.17% | 167 | 0.04% | -23,848 | -6.00% | 397,503 | 496,667 | 80.03% |
| Pinal | 59,421 | 56.01% | 44,254 | 41.71% | 530 | 0.50% | 562 | 0.53% | 116 | 0.11% | 0 | 0.00% | 15,167 | 14.30% | 106,095 | 145,704 | 72.82% |
| Santa Cruz | 4,518 | 33.36% | 8,683 | 64.12% | 49 | 0.36% | 35 | 0.26% | 17 | 0.13% | 1 | 0.01% | -4,165 | -30.76% | 13,542 | 21,287 | 63.62% |
| Yavapai | 61,192 | 60.64% | 36,889 | 36.56% | 638 | 0.63% | 638 | 0.63% | 185 | 0.18% | 106 | 0.11% | 24,303 | 24.09% | 100,904 | 118,923 | 84.85% |
| Yuma | 24,577 | 55.53% | 18,559 | 41.94% | 205 | 0.46% | 177 | 0.40% | 72 | 0.16% | 25 | 0.06% | 6,018 | 13.60% | 44,256 | 67,315 | 65.74% |
| Total | 1,230,111 | 53.00% | 1,034,707 | 44.58% | 12,555 | 0.54% | 11,301 | 0.49% | 3,406 | 0.15% | 1,395 | 0.06% | 195,404 | 8.42% | 2,320,851 | 2,987,451 | 77.69% |
| Source: [20] | |||||||||||||||||
By congressional district
McCain won 6 of Arizona's 8 congressional districts, including two districts (AZ-08 and AZ-05) represented by Democrats (Gabrielle Giffords and Harry Mitchell, respectively), and one other (AZ-01) represented by a Republican at the time but which voted for a Democrat (Ann Kirkpatrick) in the simultaneous U.S. House elections. Both districts Obama carried are represented by Democrats.[21]
| District | McCain | Obama | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 54.42% | 44.25% | Rick Renzi (110th Congress) |
| Ann Kirkpatrick (111th Congress) | |||
| 2nd | 60.75% | 38.07% | Trent Franks |
| 3rd | 56.47% | 42.34% | John Shadegg |
| 4th | 33.02% | 65.73% | Ed Pastor |
| 5th | 51.7% | 47.17% | Harry Mitchell |
| 6th | 61.32% | 37.55% | Jeff Flake |
| 7th | 41.65% | 57.19% | Raul Grijalva |
| 8th | 52.37% | 46.43% | Gabby Giffords |
Electors
Technically the voters of Arizona cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Arizona is allocated 10 electors because it has 8 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 10 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and their running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 10 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[22] An elector who votes for someone other than their candidate is known as a faithless elector.
The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.
The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 10 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[23][24]
- Bruce Ash
- Kurt Davis
- Wes Gullett
- Sharon Harper
- Jack Londen
- Beverly Lockett Miller
- Lee Miller
- Bettina Nava
- Randy Pullen
- Michael Rappoport
References
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2008 - Arizona". Retrieved 2008-12-20.
- ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". 2009-01-01. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
- ^ "Presidential". 2015-05-05. Archived from the original on 2015-05-05. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
- ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". 2009-04-22. Archived from the original on 2009-04-22. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
- ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
- ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
- ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Electoral Map". Archived from the original on 2008-06-05.
- ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
- ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
- ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
- ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
- ^ "Arizona: McCain vs. Obama". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
- ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance: AZ Contributions to All Candidates by 3 digit Zip Code". Federal Election Commission. Archived from the original on March 24, 2009. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
- ^ Todd, Chuck and Gawiser, Sheldon. How Barack Obama Won. New York City: Vintage, 2009.
- ^ a b "STATE OF ARIZONA OFFICIAL CANVASS: 2008 General Election - November 4, 2008" (PDF). Secretary of State of Arizona. 2008-12-01. Archived from the original (PDF) on December 19, 2008. Retrieved 2008-12-06.
- ^ "Presidential Results by Congressional District, 2000-2008". Swing State Project. December 15, 2008. Retrieved June 3, 2009.
- ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
- ^ Full Listing Archived February 14, 2012, at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Az presidential electors include ex-governors, activists - Tucson Citizen Morgue (1992-2009)
